The magic washing machine | Hans Rosling

翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: Felix Chen

I was only four years old

我只有四岁时

when I saw my mother load a washing machine

我看到我妈

for the very first time in her life.

在她一生中第一次使用一台洗衣机。

That was a great day for my mother.

那对我妈来说是非常棒的一天。

My mother and father had been saving money for years

我父母已经数年存钱

to be able to buy that machine,

才得以买到那台洗衣机。

and the first day it was going to be used,

第一天它被使用时，

even Grandma was invited to see the machine.

甚至邀请了奶奶来

看这洗衣机。

(Laughter)

奶奶更加激动。

And Grandma was even more excited.

Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood,

在她一生中

她一直用木柴烧热水，

and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children.

然后用手洗

七个孩子的衣服。

And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.

而现在她将目睹

电器来洗衣服。

My mother carefully opened the door,

我妈小心翼翼地打开洗衣机门，

and she loaded the laundry into the machine,

她把衣服

放进洗衣机，

就像这样。

like this.

And then, when she closed the door,

然后，当她关上门时，

Grandma said, "No, no, no, no!

奶奶说，“不，不。

Let me! Let me push the button!"

让我来按按钮。”

(Laughter)

And Grandma pushed the button,

奶奶按了按钮，

她说，“哦，棒极了。

and she said, "Oh, fantastic!

I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it,"

我想看这个。给我一把椅子。

给我一把椅子。我想看这洗衣机。”

and she sat down in front of the machine,

她坐在洗衣机前，

and she watched the entire washing program.

看了整个洗衣过程。

(Laughter)

她对此非常着迷。

She was mesmerized.

To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.

对我奶奶而言，

洗衣机就是个奇迹。

Today, in Sweden and other rich countries,

今天，在瑞典和其他富有国家，

people are using so many different machines.

人们在使用

很多各种各样的机器。

Look -- the homes are full of machines.

瞧瞧，家里满是机器；

I can't even name them all.

我甚至都叫不上它们的名字来。

And they also, when they want to travel,

当他们想要去旅行，

他们也会使用飞行器

they use flying machines

that can take them to remote destinations.

它能承载他们到遥远的目的地。

And yet, in the world,

在世界上，当然还有许多人们

there are so many people who still heat the water on fire,

他们还用火烧热水，

用火来做饭。

and they cook their food on fire.

Sometimes they don't even have enough food.

有时他们甚至没有足够的食物。

他们生活在贫困线以下。

And they live below the poverty line.

There are two billion fellow human beings

20亿人类同胞

who live on less than two dollars a day.

生活在每天少于2美元的贫困线下。

那边是最富有的人们--

And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people,

有10亿人口--

and they live above what I call the "air line" --

他们生活在我所谓的航空线之上，

(Laughter)

because they spend more than 80 dollars a day

因为他们每天消费

超过80美元。

on their consumption.

但这只是10亿，20亿，30亿人口，

But this is just one, two, three billion people,

and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world,

显然地，世界上共有70亿人口，

so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more

所以这必定是10，20，30，40亿更多的人口，

他们生活在贫困线和航空线之间。

who live in between the poverty and the air line.

他们有电器，

They have electricity,

but the question is: How many have washing machines?

但问题是，多少人会有洗衣机？

I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed,

我已经细查了市场数据，

事实上，我发现

the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,

洗衣机已经覆盖了低于航空线之下的人们，

目前另外10亿人生活在那组

and today, there's an additional one billion people out there

他们生活在洗衣机线之上。

who live above the "wash line."

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day.

他们的消费每天超过40美元。

So two billion have access to washing machines.

那么20亿人有了洗衣机。

And the remaining five billion --

剩下的50亿人，

他们怎样洗衣服？

how do they wash?

Or, to be more precise,

或者更加准确地说，

how do most of the women in the world wash?

世上多数女性是怎样洗衣服？

Because it remains the hard work for women to wash.

因为洗衣服对于女性来说还是件苦差事。

They wash like this: by hand.

她们像这样洗衣服：用手。

It's hard, time-consuming labor,

这洗衣服是一个艰苦耗时的工作，

每周她们不得不数个小时用来洗衣服。

which they have to do for hours every week.

有时她们也要从很远的地方抬水

And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away

回家洗衣服。

to do the laundry at home,

or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.

或者她们得带上衣服去到很远的小河边。

And they want the washing machine.

她们都想要洗衣机。

They don't want to spend such a large part of their life

她们不想花费她们一生中大部分时间

doing this hard work

来做这个艰苦工作

with so relatively low productivity.

却有如此低的生产力。

她们的愿望和

And there's nothing different in their wish

我奶奶的愿望并无二致。

than it was for my grandma.

看这照片，在瑞典两代人以前--

Look here, two generations ago in Sweden --

picking water from the stream,

从河边取水，

heating with firewood and washing like that.

用木柴烧水，像那样手洗。

They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.

她们完全想要同样的洗衣机。

But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students,

但当我给关注环保的学生讲课时，

they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."

他们告诉我，“不，不会世上的每个人都有汽车和洗衣机。”

How can we tell this woman

我们怎能告诉这位妇女

that she isn't going to have a washing machine?

她将不会拥有一台洗衣机呢？

And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked --

然后我问我的学生，

我一直问他们--在过去2年我一直问，

"How many of you don't use a car?"

“你们当中谁不使用汽车？”

And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car."

他们中一些人自豪地高举起手

说，“我不使用汽车。”

And then I put the really tough question:

然后我提出了相当难的问题：

"How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?"

“你们当中谁会

手洗你们的牛仔裤和床单？”

And no one raised their hand.

没人再举起手。

甚至绿色运动中的中坚人士

Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.

也使用洗衣机。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So how come [this is] something that everyone uses

那么随之而来的是每个人使用洗衣机

and they think others will not stop it?

大家认为别人不会不使用洗衣机；这有什么特别的吗？

What is special with this?

I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world.

我不得不做了有关全球能源使用的一个分析。

Here we are.

我们在这看到。

Look here. You see the seven billion people up there?

看这个，这上面有70亿人口

The air people, the wash people,

航空线的人口，洗衣机线的人口，

the bulb people and the fire people.

电灯泡线的人口和用火烧水贫穷线的人口

One unit like this

这一个单位

is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas.

是指化石燃料的一个能源单位--

如石油，煤炭或者汽油。

That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is.

这也是全球大多数电器和能源所必需的燃料。

And it's 12 units used in the entire world,

全世界使用了12单位能源，

and the richest one billion, they use six of them.

最富有的10亿人，他们使用了其中六个单位能源。

Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population.

世界人口的七分之一用了一半的能源。

And these ones, who have washing machines

这些有洗衣机的人，

但他们不是拥有满屋子各类的电器，

but not a house full of other machines,

他们使用2个单位能源。

they use two.

This group uses three, one each.

这组人使用3个单位能源，每10亿人用1个单位能源。

他们也有了电器。

And they also have electricity.

在那边，他们甚至都用不到1个单位能源。

And over there, they don't even use one each.

That makes 12 of them.

这总共是12个单位能源。

But the main concern

但主要的关注

for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right --

对于环保感兴趣的学生来说--他们是对的--

is about the future.

是关于未来。

趋势是什么？如果我们只是延伸这趋势，

What are the trends?

If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis,

不带有任何实际高级分析，到2050年，

to 2050,

增加能源使用的是2件事。

there are two things that can increase the energy use:

第一，人口增长。

first, population growth; second, economic growth.

第二，经济增长。

Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here,

人口增长会主要发生在这儿最贫穷的人们身上，

因为他们儿童死亡率很高

because they have high child mortality

她们每个妇女才会有很多小孩。

and they have many children per woman.

因此我们会额外有20亿人口，

And that will get you two extra,

但这不会多少改变能源使用。

but that won't change the energy use very much.

接下来发生的是经济增长。

What will happen is economic growth.

The best of here in the emerging economies --

在新兴经济体中这儿最强的经济体--

我称他们为“新东方”--

I call them "the New East" --

they will jump the air line.

他们会跨越到航空线。

"Wopp!" they will say.

“Wopp！好极了”他们会说。

And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.

他们会开始使用如同旧西方所消耗的同等量能源。

(Laughter)

这些人他们想要洗衣机。

And these people, they want the washing machine.

我告诉你。他们会到这组。

I told you. They'll go there.

And they will double their energy use.

他们会翻倍他们的能源使用量。

And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.

我希望穷苦的人们会用上电灯泡。

And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.

他们家庭会有2个孩子，这没有使人口增长率止步。

但总能源消耗

But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units.

会增加到22个单位。

这22单位里

And these 22 units --

还是最有钱的人使用多数能源。

still, the richest people use most of them.

那么需要做什么呢？

So what needs to be done?

Because the risk,

因为

the high probability of climate change is real.

气候变化的危险可能性很高是真的。

It's real.

这是真的。

Of course, they must be more energy efficient.

当然他们必须在能源上更高效节能。

They must change their behavior in some way.

他们必须在某种意义上要改变习惯。

They must also start to produce green energy,

他们也必须开始开发绿色能源，

越来越多的绿色能源。

much more green energy.

But until they have the same energy consumption per person,

但除非他们中每个人有和别组使用同等少的能源消耗时，

他们才可以给别组人提意见--

they shouldn't give advice to others --

what to do and what not to do.

什么该做，什么不该做。

(Laughter)

（掌声）

(Applause)

Here, we can get more green energy all over.

这儿我们到处能得到更多绿色能源。

这也是我们所希望发生的事。

This is what we hope might happen.

在未来这是个实实在在的挑战。

It's a real challenge in the future.

But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio,

但我能向你保证这个在里约热内卢贫民窟的女性，

她想要洗衣机。

she wants a washing machine.

她非常高兴，她们的能源部长

She's very happy about her minister of energy

that provided electricity to everyone --

会给每一个人供电--

so happy that she even voted for her.

以致于高兴地甚至给她投票。

她就是迪尔玛·罗塞夫，

And she became Dilma Rousseff,

the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world,

她当选为

全球最大的民主国家之一巴西的总统--

从能源部长升为总统。

moving from minister of energy to president.

如果你给予民主，

If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines.

人们就会为洗衣机选你。

他们喜爱洗衣机。

They love them!

(Laughter)

And what's the magic with them?

这洗衣机的神奇功能是什么呢？

My mother explained the magic with this machine

我妈在那非常有意义的第一天就解释了

the very, very first day.

这洗衣机的神奇之处。

她说，“现在汉斯，

She said, "Now, Hans.

我们要洗衣服；

We have loaded the laundry.

这洗衣机会派上用场。

The machine will make the work.

And now we can go to the library."

现在我们可以去图书馆了。”

因为这就是神奇之处：

Because this is the magic: you load the laundry,

你洗衣服，

and what do you get out of the machine?

从洗衣机里你会得到什么呢？

You get books out of the machines,

从那里你得到了一些书，

儿童书。

children's books.

And mother got time to read for me.

我妈妈有时间就给我读书。

She loved this.

她喜欢这个。我有了“ABC”基础丛书。

I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor,

这就是我职业生涯作为一个教授的开始，

when my mother had time to read for me.

当我妈有时给我念书时。

And she also got books for herself.

她自己也有书读。

She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language.

她计划学习英语

作为一种外语来学习。

And she read so many novels,

然后她读许多小说，

so many different novels here.

这儿有各种各样的小说。

And we really, we really loved this machine.

我们的确真地爱上了这个洗衣机。

(Laughter)

And what we said, my mother and me,

我们我妈和我想说的是，

"Thank you, industrialization.

“感谢工业化。

Thank you, steel mill.

感谢钢铁厂。

Thank you, power station.

感谢发电站。

And thank you, chemical processing industry

感谢化学加工工业

that gave us time to read books."

给予我们时间用来阅读书本。”

Thank you very much.

十分感谢。

(Laughter)

(Applause)

（掌声）