The magic washing machine | Hans Rosling

648,670 views

2011-03-21・ TED

The magic washing machine | Hans Rosling

648,670 views・2011-03-21

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

翻译人员: Angelia King 校对人员: Felix Chen
00:15
I was only four years old
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我只有四岁时
00:17
when I saw my mother load a washing machine
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我看到我妈
00:20
for the very first time in her life.
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在她一生中第一次使用一台洗衣机。
00:23
That was a great day for my mother.
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那对我妈来说是非常棒的一天。
00:25
My mother and father had been saving money for years
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我父母已经数年存钱
00:28
to be able to buy that machine,
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才得以买到那台洗衣机。
00:30
and the first day it was going to be used,
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第一天它被使用时,
00:32
even Grandma was invited to see the machine.
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甚至邀请了奶奶来
看这洗衣机。
00:35
(Laughter)
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奶奶更加激动。
00:37
And Grandma was even more excited.
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00:39
Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood,
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在她一生中
她一直用木柴烧热水,
00:43
and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children.
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然后用手洗
七个孩子的衣服。
00:47
And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.
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而现在她将目睹
电器来洗衣服。
00:53
My mother carefully opened the door,
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我妈小心翼翼地打开洗衣机门,
00:57
and she loaded the laundry into the machine,
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她把衣服
放进洗衣机,
就像这样。
01:02
like this.
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01:03
And then, when she closed the door,
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然后,当她关上门时,
01:05
Grandma said, "No, no, no, no!
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奶奶说,“不,不。
01:07
Let me! Let me push the button!"
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让我来按按钮。”
01:10
(Laughter)
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01:11
And Grandma pushed the button,
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奶奶按了按钮,
她说,“哦,棒极了。
01:14
and she said, "Oh, fantastic!
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01:16
I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it,"
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我想看这个。给我一把椅子。
给我一把椅子。我想看这洗衣机。”
01:20
and she sat down in front of the machine,
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她坐在洗衣机前,
01:23
and she watched the entire washing program.
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看了整个洗衣过程。
01:27
(Laughter)
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她对此非常着迷。
01:28
She was mesmerized.
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01:29
To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.
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对我奶奶而言,
洗衣机就是个奇迹。
01:35
Today, in Sweden and other rich countries,
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今天,在瑞典和其他富有国家,
01:38
people are using so many different machines.
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人们在使用
很多各种各样的机器。
01:42
Look -- the homes are full of machines.
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瞧瞧,家里满是机器;
01:44
I can't even name them all.
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我甚至都叫不上它们的名字来。
01:46
And they also, when they want to travel,
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当他们想要去旅行,
他们也会使用飞行器
01:50
they use flying machines
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01:52
that can take them to remote destinations.
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它能承载他们到遥远的目的地。
01:54
And yet, in the world,
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在世界上,当然还有许多人们
01:56
there are so many people who still heat the water on fire,
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他们还用火烧热水,
用火来做饭。
02:00
and they cook their food on fire.
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02:02
Sometimes they don't even have enough food.
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有时他们甚至没有足够的食物。
他们生活在贫困线以下。
02:05
And they live below the poverty line.
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02:07
There are two billion fellow human beings
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20亿人类同胞
02:10
who live on less than two dollars a day.
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生活在每天少于2美元的贫困线下。
那边是最富有的人们--
02:13
And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people,
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有10亿人口--
02:16
and they live above what I call the "air line" --
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他们生活在我所谓的航空线之上,
02:19
(Laughter)
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02:20
because they spend more than 80 dollars a day
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因为他们每天消费
超过80美元。
02:24
on their consumption.
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但这只是10亿,20亿,30亿人口,
02:26
But this is just one, two, three billion people,
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02:28
and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world,
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显然地,世界上共有70亿人口,
02:31
so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more
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所以这必定是10,20,30,40亿更多的人口,
他们生活在贫困线和航空线之间。
02:35
who live in between the poverty and the air line.
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他们有电器,
02:38
They have electricity,
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02:40
but the question is: How many have washing machines?
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但问题是,多少人会有洗衣机?
02:43
I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed,
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我已经细查了市场数据,
事实上,我发现
02:48
the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,
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洗衣机已经覆盖了低于航空线之下的人们,
目前另外10亿人生活在那组
02:52
and today, there's an additional one billion people out there
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他们生活在洗衣机线之上。
02:55
who live above the "wash line."
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02:57
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:59
And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day.
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他们的消费每天超过40美元。
03:03
So two billion have access to washing machines.
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那么20亿人有了洗衣机。
03:06
And the remaining five billion --
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剩下的50亿人,
他们怎样洗衣服?
03:09
how do they wash?
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03:10
Or, to be more precise,
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或者更加准确地说,
03:12
how do most of the women in the world wash?
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世上多数女性是怎样洗衣服?
03:15
Because it remains the hard work for women to wash.
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因为洗衣服对于女性来说还是件苦差事。
03:19
They wash like this: by hand.
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她们像这样洗衣服:用手。
03:22
It's hard, time-consuming labor,
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这洗衣服是一个艰苦耗时的工作,
每周她们不得不数个小时用来洗衣服。
03:27
which they have to do for hours every week.
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有时她们也要从很远的地方抬水
03:30
And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away
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回家洗衣服。
03:33
to do the laundry at home,
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03:34
or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.
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或者她们得带上衣服去到很远的小河边。
03:38
And they want the washing machine.
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她们都想要洗衣机。
03:41
They don't want to spend such a large part of their life
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她们不想花费她们一生中大部分时间
03:44
doing this hard work
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来做这个艰苦工作
03:46
with so relatively low productivity.
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却有如此低的生产力。
她们的愿望和
03:49
And there's nothing different in their wish
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我奶奶的愿望并无二致。
03:51
than it was for my grandma.
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看这照片,在瑞典两代人以前--
03:53
Look here, two generations ago in Sweden --
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03:55
picking water from the stream,
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从河边取水,
03:57
heating with firewood and washing like that.
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用木柴烧水,像那样手洗。
04:00
They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.
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她们完全想要同样的洗衣机。
04:03
But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students,
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但当我给关注环保的学生讲课时,
04:06
they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."
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他们告诉我,“不,不会世上的每个人都有汽车和洗衣机。”
04:11
How can we tell this woman
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我们怎能告诉这位妇女
04:13
that she isn't going to have a washing machine?
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她将不会拥有一台洗衣机呢?
04:15
And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked --
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然后我问我的学生,
我一直问他们--在过去2年我一直问,
04:19
"How many of you don't use a car?"
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“你们当中谁不使用汽车?”
04:21
And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car."
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他们中一些人自豪地高举起手
说,“我不使用汽车。”
04:25
And then I put the really tough question:
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然后我提出了相当难的问题:
04:27
"How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?"
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“你们当中谁会
手洗你们的牛仔裤和床单?”
04:31
And no one raised their hand.
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没人再举起手。
甚至绿色运动中的中坚人士
04:35
Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.
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也使用洗衣机。
04:39
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
04:43
So how come [this is] something that everyone uses
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那么随之而来的是每个人使用洗衣机
04:45
and they think others will not stop it?
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大家认为别人不会不使用洗衣机;这有什么特别的吗?
04:47
What is special with this?
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04:48
I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world.
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我不得不做了有关全球能源使用的一个分析。
04:51
Here we are.
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我们在这看到。
04:52
Look here. You see the seven billion people up there?
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看这个,这上面有70亿人口
04:55
The air people, the wash people,
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航空线的人口,洗衣机线的人口,
04:57
the bulb people and the fire people.
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电灯泡线的人口和用火烧水贫穷线的人口
05:00
One unit like this
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这一个单位
05:02
is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas.
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是指化石燃料的一个能源单位--
如石油,煤炭或者汽油。
05:07
That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is.
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这也是全球大多数电器和能源所必需的燃料。
05:11
And it's 12 units used in the entire world,
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全世界使用了12单位能源,
05:14
and the richest one billion, they use six of them.
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最富有的10亿人,他们使用了其中六个单位能源。
05:17
Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population.
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世界人口的七分之一用了一半的能源。
05:20
And these ones, who have washing machines
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这些有洗衣机的人,
但他们不是拥有满屋子各类的电器,
05:23
but not a house full of other machines,
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他们使用2个单位能源。
05:25
they use two.
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05:26
This group uses three, one each.
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这组人使用3个单位能源,每10亿人用1个单位能源。
他们也有了电器。
05:29
And they also have electricity.
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在那边,他们甚至都用不到1个单位能源。
05:31
And over there, they don't even use one each.
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05:33
That makes 12 of them.
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这总共是12个单位能源。
05:35
But the main concern
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但主要的关注
05:37
for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right --
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对于环保感兴趣的学生来说--他们是对的--
05:40
is about the future.
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是关于未来。
趋势是什么?如果我们只是延伸这趋势,
05:43
What are the trends?
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05:44
If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis,
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不带有任何实际高级分析,到2050年,
05:48
to 2050,
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增加能源使用的是2件事。
05:49
there are two things that can increase the energy use:
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第一,人口增长。
05:52
first, population growth; second, economic growth.
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第二,经济增长。
05:55
Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here,
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人口增长会主要发生在这儿最贫穷的人们身上,
因为他们儿童死亡率很高
05:59
because they have high child mortality
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她们每个妇女才会有很多小孩。
06:01
and they have many children per woman.
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因此我们会额外有20亿人口,
06:03
And that will get you two extra,
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但这不会多少改变能源使用。
06:05
but that won't change the energy use very much.
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接下来发生的是经济增长。
06:07
What will happen is economic growth.
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06:09
The best of here in the emerging economies --
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在新兴经济体中这儿最强的经济体--
我称他们为“新东方”--
06:12
I call them "the New East" --
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06:13
they will jump the air line.
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他们会跨越到航空线。
06:15
"Wopp!" they will say.
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“Wopp!好极了”他们会说。
06:17
And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.
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他们会开始使用如同旧西方所消耗的同等量能源。
06:20
(Laughter)
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这些人他们想要洗衣机。
06:21
And these people, they want the washing machine.
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我告诉你。他们会到这组。
06:24
I told you. They'll go there.
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06:25
And they will double their energy use.
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他们会翻倍他们的能源使用量。
06:27
And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.
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我希望穷苦的人们会用上电灯泡。
06:30
And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.
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他们家庭会有2个孩子,这没有使人口增长率止步。
但总能源消耗
06:33
But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units.
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会增加到22个单位。
这22单位里
06:37
And these 22 units --
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还是最有钱的人使用多数能源。
06:40
still, the richest people use most of them.
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那么需要做什么呢?
06:44
So what needs to be done?
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06:45
Because the risk,
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因为
06:47
the high probability of climate change is real.
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气候变化的危险可能性很高是真的。
06:50
It's real.
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这是真的。
06:52
Of course, they must be more energy efficient.
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当然他们必须在能源上更高效节能。
06:55
They must change their behavior in some way.
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他们必须在某种意义上要改变习惯。
06:57
They must also start to produce green energy,
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他们也必须开始开发绿色能源,
越来越多的绿色能源。
07:00
much more green energy.
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07:01
But until they have the same energy consumption per person,
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但除非他们中每个人有和别组使用同等少的能源消耗时,
他们才可以给别组人提意见--
07:05
they shouldn't give advice to others --
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07:06
what to do and what not to do.
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什么该做,什么不该做。
07:08
(Laughter)
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(掌声)
07:09
(Applause)
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07:10
Here, we can get more green energy all over.
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这儿我们到处能得到更多绿色能源。
这也是我们所希望发生的事。
07:15
This is what we hope might happen.
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在未来这是个实实在在的挑战。
07:17
It's a real challenge in the future.
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07:19
But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio,
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但我能向你保证这个在里约热内卢贫民窟的女性,
她想要洗衣机。
07:23
she wants a washing machine.
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她非常高兴,她们的能源部长
07:25
She's very happy about her minister of energy
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07:27
that provided electricity to everyone --
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会给每一个人供电--
07:29
so happy that she even voted for her.
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以致于高兴地甚至给她投票。
她就是迪尔玛·罗塞夫,
07:33
And she became Dilma Rousseff,
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07:34
the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world,
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她当选为
全球最大的民主国家之一巴西的总统--
从能源部长升为总统。
07:39
moving from minister of energy to president.
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如果你给予民主,
07:42
If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines.
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人们就会为洗衣机选你。
他们喜爱洗衣机。
07:46
They love them!
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07:47
(Laughter)
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07:49
And what's the magic with them?
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这洗衣机的神奇功能是什么呢?
07:51
My mother explained the magic with this machine
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我妈在那非常有意义的第一天就解释了
07:54
the very, very first day.
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这洗衣机的神奇之处。
她说,“现在汉斯,
07:57
She said, "Now, Hans.
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我们要洗衣服;
07:59
We have loaded the laundry.
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这洗衣机会派上用场。
08:01
The machine will make the work.
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08:02
And now we can go to the library."
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现在我们可以去图书馆了。”
因为这就是神奇之处:
08:05
Because this is the magic: you load the laundry,
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你洗衣服,
08:08
and what do you get out of the machine?
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从洗衣机里你会得到什么呢?
08:10
You get books out of the machines,
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从那里你得到了一些书,
儿童书。
08:14
children's books.
179
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1152
08:15
And mother got time to read for me.
180
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2345
我妈妈有时间就给我读书。
08:17
She loved this.
181
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1165
她喜欢这个。我有了“ABC”基础丛书。
08:18
I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor,
182
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3787
这就是我职业生涯作为一个教授的开始,
08:22
when my mother had time to read for me.
183
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2140
当我妈有时给我念书时。
08:24
And she also got books for herself.
184
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1812
她自己也有书读。
08:26
She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language.
185
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3755
她计划学习英语
作为一种外语来学习。
08:30
And she read so many novels,
186
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2307
然后她读许多小说,
08:32
so many different novels here.
187
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2440
这儿有各种各样的小说。
08:35
And we really, we really loved this machine.
188
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3666
我们的确真地爱上了这个洗衣机。
08:38
(Laughter)
189
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1138
08:39
And what we said, my mother and me,
190
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2550
我们我妈和我想说的是,
08:42
"Thank you, industrialization.
191
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2472
“感谢工业化。
08:45
Thank you, steel mill.
192
525560
1934
感谢钢铁厂。
08:47
Thank you, power station.
193
527518
1794
感谢发电站。
08:49
And thank you, chemical processing industry
194
529336
3024
感谢化学加工工业
08:52
that gave us time to read books."
195
532384
2008
给予我们时间用来阅读书本。”
08:54
Thank you very much.
196
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1217
十分感谢。
08:55
(Laughter)
197
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1082
08:56
(Applause)
198
536763
7000
(掌声)
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