The magic washing machine | Hans Rosling

譯者: kane tan 審譯者: Wang-Ju Tsai

I was only four years old

在我四歲的時候,

when I saw my mother load a washing machine

我看見我的媽媽將衣物放進

for the very first time in her life.

她一生中第一次使用的洗衣機。

That was a great day for my mother.

對我媽來說, 這是一個重要的日子

My mother and father had been saving money for years

我的媽媽和爸爸存了很多年的錢

to be able to buy that machine,

才能夠買到這台洗衣機

and the first day it was going to be used,

而這是它第一次被使用的日子,

even Grandma was invited to see the machine.

甚至連奶奶都被邀請

來看這台洗衣機。

(Laughter)

奶奶還比媽媽更興奮

And Grandma was even more excited.

Throughout her life, she had been heating water with firewood,

她這一輩子

都是靠柴火來燒熱水,

and she had hand-washed laundry for seven children.

她必須用雙手

替七個孩子洗衣物

And now, she was going to watch electricity do that work.

而現在她會看到

電力來做這件事

My mother carefully opened the door,

我媽媽小心地打開了門,

and she loaded the laundry into the machine,

然後她將這些衣物

放進了洗衣機

就像這樣

like this.

And then, when she closed the door,

然後, 當她關上門的時候,

Grandma said, "No, no, no, no!

奶奶說, "等等，

Let me! Let me push the button!"

讓我來按這個按鈕。"

(Laughter)

And Grandma pushed the button,

然後奶奶按下了按鈕,

她說, "喔, 真神奇啊

and she said, "Oh, fantastic!

I want to see this! Give me a chair! Give me a chair! I want to see it,"

我想看看這個. 給我一張椅子

給我一張椅子， 我想看看它。"

and she sat down in front of the machine,

於是她坐在洗衣機的前面,

and she watched the entire washing program.

她看了整個洗滌的流程

(Laughter)

她被迷住了

She was mesmerized.

To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.

對我的奶奶來說,

洗衣機是一個奇蹟

Today, in Sweden and other rich countries,

現在, 在瑞典和其他有錢的國家,

people are using so many different machines.

人們使用著

各種不同的機器

Look -- the homes are full of machines.

看, 家裡堆滿了各種機器;

I can't even name them all.

我甚至沒辦法說出全部的名稱

And they also, when they want to travel,

同時, 當他們想旅行時,

他們會使用飛機

they use flying machines

that can take them to remote destinations.

來送他們到遙遠的地方

And yet, in the world,

然而, 在這個世界裡, 還有許多人

there are so many people who still heat the water on fire,

需要生火來燒熱水,

也必須靠火來煮飯

and they cook their food on fire.

Sometimes they don't even have enough food.

有時候甚至沒有足夠的食物

他們活在貧窮的標準線之下

And they live below the poverty line.

There are two billion fellow human beings

有二十億的人們

who live on less than two dollars a day.

每天生活費用不到兩塊美金

而最富裕的人們 --

And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people,

有十億的人們 --

and they live above what I call the "air line" --

他們生活在這條我稱為天際線之上,

(Laughter)

because they spend more than 80 dollars a day

因為他們每天用在生活的花費

超過八十美金

on their consumption.

但這只是十、二十、 三十億的人們,

But this is just one, two, three billion people,

and obviously, there are seven billion people in the world,

但世界上有七十億的人口,

so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more

所以還有十、二十、三十、四十億的人,

生活在貧窮與天際線之間。

who live in between the poverty and the air line.

他們擁有電力,

They have electricity,

but the question is: How many have washing machines?

但問題是, 多少人擁有洗衣機?

I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed,

我做過市場調查,

我發現, 確實,

the washing machine has penetrated below the air line,

洗衣機在這條天際線之下,

而今日, 有十億人

and today, there's an additional one billion people out there

生活在洗衣機線之上

who live above the "wash line."

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

And they consume for more than 40 dollars per day.

他們每天的花費超過四十美元

So two billion have access to washing machines.

所以有二十億的人可以使用洗衣機

And the remaining five billion --

那麼剩下的五十億人們,

是怎麼洗衣服的呢?

how do they wash?

Or, to be more precise,

或者, 講明白一點,

how do most of the women in the world wash?

世界上大部分的女人是怎麼洗衣服的呢?

Because it remains the hard work for women to wash.

因為對女人來說, 洗衣服仍然是件辛苦的事情

They wash like this: by hand.

她們會這樣洗衣服: 用手洗

It's hard, time-consuming labor,

這是一件辛苦, 很耗費時間的工作,

這是她們每個禮拜都要花費好幾小時所做的事情

which they have to do for hours every week.

有時候她們必須將水從很遠的地方

And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away

帶回家中洗衣服

to do the laundry at home,

or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off.

或是, 她們必須將衣物帶到很遠的溪流旁邊

And they want the washing machine.

所以, 她們想要有洗衣機

They don't want to spend such a large part of their life

她們不想將生命中大部分的時間

doing this hard work

用在這種又辛苦

with so relatively low productivity.

又沒什麼價值的工作上.

她們的這個願望

And there's nothing different in their wish

和我奶奶的願望沒什麼不同

than it was for my grandma.

看這裡, 兩代之前的瑞典 --

Look here, two generations ago in Sweden --

picking water from the stream,

從溪流邊取水,

heating with firewood and washing like that.

生火燒水和用手洗衣服

They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.

她們也同樣想要有洗衣機

But when I lecture to environmentally concerned students,

但是, 當我對著關心環保的學生們演說時,

they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines."

他們告訴我, "不, 世界上的人們不可以都擁有汽車和洗衣機。"

How can we tell this woman

我們該怎麼告訴這個女人

that she isn't going to have a washing machine?

她不可以有一台洗衣機?

And then I ask my students -- over the last two years, I've asked --

於是我問我的學生們,

在過去兩年中, 我問過他們,

"How many of you don't use a car?"

"你們之中有多少人不開車?"

And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car."

一部分人自豪地舉起他們的手,

告訴我, "我不開車。"

And then I put the really tough question:

接著我問他們一個艱困的問題:

"How many of you hand-wash your jeans and your bedsheets?"

"你們之中

有多少人會用手洗牛仔褲和床單?"

And no one raised their hand.

結果沒有人舉手

即使是綠色運動的激進人士

Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.

也會使用洗衣機

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

So how come [this is] something that everyone uses

所以, 這種每個人都會使用的東西,

and they think others will not stop it?

他們怎麼能夠期望別人不使用;有什麼特別的嗎?

What is special with this?

I had to do an analysis about the energy use in the world.

我對世界上能源使用狀況進行了分析

Here we are.

就像這樣

Look here. You see the seven billion people up there?

看這邊, 你看這裡有七十億的人們,

The air people, the wash people,

天際等級的人, 洗衣機等級的人,

the bulb people and the fire people.

使用燈泡和生火的人們

One unit like this

這是一個單位,

is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas.

一個石化燃料的單位 --

石油, 煤炭或天然氣。

That's what most of the electricity and the energy in the world is.

這是世界上的電力和能源主要的來源

And it's 12 units used in the entire world,

整個世界使用了十二個單位的能源,

and the richest one billion, they use six of them.

最有錢的十億人們, 他們用了六個單位。

Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world population.

有一半的能源被這七分之一的人口給用掉了

And these ones, who have washing machines

而這個有洗衣機的族群,

家中並未充斥其它機器的族群,

but not a house full of other machines,

他們用了兩個單位。

they use two.

This group uses three, one each.

這個族群用了三個單位, 每十億人用一個單位

他們也擁有電力

And they also have electricity.

但這裡, 他們幾乎每十億人用不到一個單位

And over there, they don't even use one each.

That makes 12 of them.

這樣總共是十二單位的能源

But the main concern

但是, 主要的問題是,

for the environmentally interested students -- and they are right --

對於關心環保的學生們而言 -- 他們是對的 --

is about the future.

是未來的狀況。

趨勢會是如何呢? 如果我們將趨勢線延伸,

What are the trends?

If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis,

一直到 2050 年, 不做任何進階的分析,

to 2050,

有兩件事會造成能源消耗的增加

there are two things that can increase the energy use:

第一, 人口的成長

first, population growth; second, economic growth.

第二, 經濟的成長

Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here,

人口的增加主要發生在最貧窮的人們這邊,

因為他們有較高的兒童死亡率,

because they have high child mortality

同時每個女人的平均生育數也比較多

and they have many children per woman.

於是, 這邊就會多出兩個,

And that will get you two extra,

但這並不太會造成能源使用量的改變

but that won't change the energy use very much.

接下來的是經濟成長

What will happen is economic growth.

The best of here in the emerging economies --

這邊所發生的經濟成長 --

我稱之為新東方 --

I call them "the New East" --

they will jump the air line.

他們會跳過天際線

"Wopp!" they will say.

他們將會說, "跳!"

And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already.

接著他們會開始使用跟舊西方一樣多的能源耗用量

(Laughter)

而那些人們, 他們想要有洗衣機

And these people, they want the washing machine.

我說過的，他們將會移動到這裡。

I told you. They'll go there.

And they will double their energy use.

於是他們會增加兩倍的能源使用量

And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light.

而我們希望貧窮的人們能夠開始使用電燈

And they'll get a two-child family without a stop in population growth.

接著他們會擁有兩個小孩的家庭而不會阻止人口成長

但是能源的總耗用量

But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units.

將會增加到 22 單位

而這 22 單位的主要使用者

And these 22 units --

仍然是最有錢的那些人

still, the richest people use most of them.

所以, 我們該做些什麼呢?

So what needs to be done?

Because the risk,

由於目前所存在的風險,

the high probability of climate change is real.

關於氣候變遷的高度可能性是存在的

It's real.

這是真實的事情

Of course, they must be more energy efficient.

當然, 他們必須更有效率的使用能源

They must change their behavior in some way.

他們必須改變使用習慣

They must also start to produce green energy,

他們也必須開始製造綠色能源,

更多的綠色能源

much more green energy.

But until they have the same energy consumption per person,

但, 在他們能夠作到同樣的能源耗用之前,

他們不應該去建議別人 --

they shouldn't give advice to others --

what to do and what not to do.

什麼該做, 什麼是不該做的。

(Laughter)

(掌聲)

(Applause)

Here, we can get more green energy all over.

這樣我們可以在整體上獲得更多綠色能源

這是我們期望發生的事

This is what we hope might happen.

這在未來是一大挑戰

It's a real challenge in the future.

But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio,

但是我向你保證, 在里約貧民窟中的這個女人,

她想要有洗衣機

she wants a washing machine.

她很高興她那位能源部長

She's very happy about her minister of energy

that provided electricity to everyone --

能夠提供給每個人民電力 --

so happy that she even voted for her.

所以人們都樂意投票給她

而她就是 Dilma Rousseff,

And she became Dilma Rousseff,

the president-elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world,

在這世界中最大的民主國家之一

的總統當選者 --

從能源部長變成了總統

moving from minister of energy to president.

如果你有民主制度,

If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines.

人們會為了洗衣機而投票

他們喜歡洗衣機

They love them!

(Laughter)

And what's the magic with them?

它們神奇的地方在哪兒?

My mother explained the magic with this machine

我媽媽在使用洗衣機的第一天

the very, very first day.

解釋洗衣機的神奇之處給我聽

她說, "現在 Hans,

She said, "Now, Hans.

我們把衣物放了進去;

We have loaded the laundry.

洗衣機就會把衣物洗好

The machine will make the work.

And now we can go to the library."

所以現在我們可以去圖書館了。"

由於這個神奇的事情:

Because this is the magic: you load the laundry,

你把衣物放進去以後,

and what do you get out of the machine?

你可以藉由洗衣機得到什麼?

You get books out of the machines,

你可以藉由洗衣機得到書本,

兒童讀物。

children's books.

And mother got time to read for me.

而媽媽有空可以念給我聽

She loved this.

她喜歡這件事，我得到了 "ABC"

I got the "ABC's" -- this is why I started my career as a professor,

這是我以教授作為工作的起點,

when my mother had time to read for me.

在我媽媽有空念給我聽之後

And she also got books for herself.

她也為自己得到了一些書

She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language.

她開始唸英文,

學習這個作為第一外語

And she read so many novels,

她讀了許多小說,

so many different novels here.

許多不同的小說

And we really, we really loved this machine.

我們真的很愛洗衣機

(Laughter)

And what we said, my mother and me,

而媽媽和我想說的是,

"Thank you, industrialization.

"謝謝工業化

Thank you, steel mill.

謝謝鋼鐵廠

Thank you, power station.

謝謝電廠

And thank you, chemical processing industry

謝謝化學製品工業,

that gave us time to read books."

給予我們唸書的時間。"

Thank you very much.

非常感謝大家

(Laughter)

(Applause)

(掌聲)