Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen

About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development

Takriban miaka 10 iliyopita, nilianza kazi ya kufundisha maendeleo ya ulimwengu

kwa wanafunzi wa Kiswidishi wa shahada ya kwanza. Hii ilikuwa baada ya

to Swedish undergraduate students.

That was after having spent about 20 years,

takriban miaka 20 ya kufanya kazi pamoja na taasisi mbalimbali za Afrika nikitafiti kuhusu njaa

together with African institutions,

studying hunger in Africa.

katika Afrika, kwa hiyo nilikuwa natarajiwa niwe najua zaidi kuhusu dunia.

So I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.

Na nilianzia kwenye chuo chetu cha utabibu, Taasisi ya Karolinska,

And I started, in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,

an undergraduate course called Global Health.

kozi ya shahada ya kwanza iliyoitwa Afya ya Ulimwengu. Lakini ukipata

But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.

fursa hiyo, unapata mshawasha kidogo. Nilifikiri wanafunzi hawa

I thought, these students coming to us actually have the highest grade

kuja kwetu ni lazima wana maksi za juu unazoweza kupata

you can get in the Swedish college system,

kwenye mfumo wa vyuo vya Sweden -- kwahiyo labda wanajua kila kitu

so I thought, maybe they know everything I'm going to teach them about.

kuhusu nitakachowafundisha. Kwa hiyo niliwapa mtihani mara tu walipokuja.

So I did a pretest when they came.

And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:

Na moja wapo kati ya maswali ambayo nilijifunza mengi ni hili hapa:

"Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"

"Ni nchi gani kati ya hizi tano ina kiwango kikubwa cha vifo vya watoto kati ya jozi hizi tano?"

Na niliziweka pamoja, ili katika kila kundi la nchi,

And I put them together so that in each pair of countries,

one has twice the child mortality of the other.

moja ina kiwango kikubwa cha vifo vya watoto zaidi ya nyingine. Na hii inamaanisha kwamba

And this means that it's much bigger, the difference,

kuna tofauti kubwa sana kuliko uhakika wa takwimu.

than the uncertainty of the data.

I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey,

Sitawapa mtihani hapa, lakini ni Uturuki,

which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.

ambayo ina kiwango kikubwa pale, Poland, Urusi, Pakistani na Afrika Kusini.

And these were the results of the Swedish students.

Na haya ndiyo majibu ya wanafunzi wa Kiswidishi. Nilifanya hivyo na nilipata

I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow.

kiwango cha imani, ambacho kilikuwa kidogo, na nilifurahi,

And I got happy, of course -- a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.

kwa hakika: 1.8 ya jibu sahihi kati ya matano inawezekana. Hii ina maana kwamba

That means there was a place for a professor of international health

kulikuwa kuna nafasi ya Profesa wa afya ya ulimwengu --

and for my course.

(Kicheko) na kwa kozi yangu.

(Laughter)

But one late night, when I was compiling the report,

Lakini usiku mmoja, wakati nilipokuwa natayarisha ripoti

I really realized my discovery.

Niligundua uvumbuzi wangu. Nimeonyesha

I have shown that Swedish top students know, statistically,

kuwa wanafunzi Waswidishi wenye alama za juu wanajua kidogo sana kuhusu takwimu

significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.

za ulimwengu kuliko hata sokwe.

(Laughter)

(Kicheko)

Because the chimpanzee would score half right

Kwasababu sokwe wangepata nusu iwapo ningewapa

if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.

ndizi mbili zenye Sri Lanka na Uturuki. Wangekuwa sahihi kwa nusu yake.

They would be right half of the cases. But the students are not there.

Lakini wanafunzi hawapo huko. Tatizo langu halikuwa kutokujua kwao:

The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.

ilikuwa ni mawazo waliyojijengea.

I did also an unethical study

Pia nilifanya utafiti kinyume na maadili kwa maprofesa wa taasisi ya Karolinska

of the professors of the Karolinska Institute,

(Kicheko)

which hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,

-- ambao wanatoa tuzo ya Nobel katika utabibu,

and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.

na wao wako sawa tu na sokwe.

(Kicheko)

(Laughter)

This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,

Hapa ndipo nilipogundua kwamba kuna haja ya kuwasiliana,

because the data of what's happening in the world

kwasababu ya takwimu za kinachotokea duniani

and the child health of every country

na afya ya mtoto katika kila nchi inajulikana.

is very well aware.

So we did this software, which displays it like this.

Tulitengeneza hii programu ya kompyuta ambayo inayoonyesha kama hivi: kila kiputo hapa ni nchi.

Every bubble here is a country.

This country over here is China.

Hii nchi hapa ni China. Hii ni India.

This is India.

The size of the bubble is the population,

Ukubwa wa kiputo ni idadi ya watu, na katika mhimili huu nimeweka kiwango cha uzazi.

and on this axis here, I put fertility rate.

Because my students, what they said

Kwasababu wanafunzi wangu, walichosema

when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,

wakati walipoangalia dunia, na nilipowauliza,

"What do you really think about the world?"

"Nini mnafikiri kuhusu dunia?"

Naam, kwanza niligundua kuwa kitabu cha kiada kilikuwa Tintin, angalau.

Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.

(Laughter)

(Kicheko)

And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.'

Na walisema, "Dunia bado ni 'sisi' na 'wao.'

And 'we' is the Western world and 'them' is the Third World."

Na sisi ni dunia ya Magharibi na wao ni Dunia ya Tatu."

"Na una maana gani kwa kusema dunia ya magharibi?" Niliuliza.

"And what do you mean with 'Western world?'" I said.

"Well, that's long life and small family.

"Naam, haya ni maisha marefu na familia ndogo, na dunia ya tatu ni maisha mafupi na familia kubwa."

And 'Third World' is short life and large family."

Kwa hiyo hii ndio ninayoweza kuonyesha hapa. Niliweka kiwango cha uzazi hapa: idadi ya watoto kwa mwanamke,

So this is what I could display here.

I put fertility rate here --

number of children per woman: one, two, three, four,

moja, mbili, tatu, nne, mpaka watoto nane kwa mwanamke mmoja.

up to about eight children per woman.

We have very good data since 1962, 1960, about,

Tuna takwimu nzuri sana toka mwaka 1962 -- 1960 kuhusu -- ukubwa wa familia katika nchi zote.

on the size of families in all countries.

The error margin is narrow.

Kiwango cha makosa ni kidogo sana. Hapa naweka umri wa kuishi wakati wa kuzaliwa,

Here, I put life expectancy at birth,

from 30 years in some countries, up to about 70 years.

kuanzia miaka 30 katika nchi nyingine mpaka karibu miaka 70.

And in 1962, there was really a group of countries here

Na mwaka 1962 kulikuwa na kundi kubwa la nchi hapa,

that were industrialized countries,

ambazo zilikuwa nchi zenye viwanda, na walikuwa na familia ndogo na maisha marefu.

and they had small families and long lives.

And these were the developing countries.

Na hizi zilikuwa nchi zinazoendelea:

They had large families and they had relatively short lives.

walikuwa na familia kubwa na walikuwa na maisha mafupi.

Now, what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.

Sasa nini kimetokea toka mwaka 1962? Tunataka kuona mabadiliko.

Are the students right? It's still two types of countries?

Je wanafunzi wako sahihi? Bado ni aina mbili za nchi?

Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?

Au hizi nchi zilizoendelea zina familia ndogo na wanaishi hapa?

Or have they got longer lives and live up there?

Au wana maisha marefu na wanaishi hapo juu?

Let's see. We start the world, eh?

Hebu tuone. Tulisimamisha dunia wakati ule. Hizi zote ni takwimu za Umoja wa Mataifa

This is all UN statistics that have been available.

ambazo zinapatikana. Hebu tuone. Unaweza kuona kule?

Here we go. Can you see there?

It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there.

Ni China kule, ikiendelea dhidi ya afya bora hapa, inaboreka kule.

All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.

Nchi zote za kijani za Amerika ya Kusini zimeanza kuelekea kuwa na familia ndogo.

Hizi za njano hapa ni nchi za Kiarabu,

Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,

na wana familia kubwa, lakini wao -- hawana maisha marefu, lakini si familia kubwa.

and they get longer life, but not larger families.

The Africans are the green here. They still remain here.

Waafrika ni kijani hapa chini. Bado wamebaki hapa.

This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast.

Hii ni India. Indonesia inaenda kwa kasi sana.

In the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries.

(Kicheko)

Na miaka ya 80 hapa, kuna Bangladesh bado iko miongoni mwa nchi za Afrika kule.

But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s --

Lakini sasa, Bangladesh -- ni miujiza iliyotokea miaka ya 80:

the imams start to promote family planning,

Maimamu walianza kuhamasisha uzazi wa mpango.

and they move up into that corner.

Walisogea juu kwenye ile kona. Na katika miaka ya 90, tulikuwa na janga la Ukimwi

And in the '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic

that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries.

ambalo lilishusha umri wa kuishi wa nchi za Afrika

And the rest of them all move up into the corner,

na nyingine zote zilipanda kwenye ile kona,

where we have long lives and small family,

ambako tuna maisha marefu na familia ndogo, na tuna ulimwengu mpya kabisa.

and we have a completely new world.

(Applause)

(Makofi)

(Applause ends)

Let me make a comparison directly

Ngoja nifananishe kati ya Marekani na Vietnam.

between the United States of America and Vietnam.

1964:

1964: Marekani ilikuwa na familia ndogo na maisha marefu;

America had small families and long life;

Vietnam had large families and short lives.

Vietnam ilikuwa na familia kubwa na maisha mafupi. Na hiki ndicho kilichotokea:

And this is what happens.

The data during the war indicate that even with all the death,

takwimu wakati wa vita zilionyesha kuwa pamoja na vifo vyote,

there was an improvement of life expectancy.

kulikuwa kuna mabadiliko katika umri wa kuishi. Mwisho wa mwaka,

By the end of the year, family planning started in Vietnam,

uzazi wa mpango ulianza Vietnam na waliamua kuwa na familia ndogo.

and they went for smaller families.

And the United States up there is getting longer life,

Na Marekani pale juu wanakuwa na maisha marefu,

keeping family size.

wanabaki na ukubwa wa familia. Na miaka ya 80 sasa,

And in the '80s now, they give up Communist planning

waliacha mpango wa kikomunisti na wakaingia kwenye uchumi wa soko huria,

and they go for market economy,

and it moves faster even than social life.

na inaenda haraka hata zaidi ya maisha ya jamii. Na leo,

And today, we have in Vietnam

Vietnam ina umri wa kuishi na ukubwa wa familia sawa

the same life expectancy and the same family size

hapa Vietnam, 2003, kama ilivyokuwa Marekani, 1974, mwishoni mwa vita.

here in Vietnam, 2003,

as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.

Nafikiri sote -- kama hatutaangalia vielelezo --

I think we all, if we don't look at the data,

we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia,

tutapuuza mabadiliko makubwa huko Asia, ambayo yalikuwa

which was in social change before we saw the economic change.

mabadiliko ya kijamii kabla hatujaona mabadiliko ya kiuchumi.

So let's move over to another way here

Hebu tuendelee kwingine hapa ambako tunaweza kuonyesha

in which we could display the distribution in the world

mgawanyo wa kipato duniani. Hii ni mgao wa kipato cha watu.

of income.

This is the world distribution of income of people.

Dola moja, dola 10 au dola 100 kwa siku.

One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.

Hakuna pengo tena kati ya matajiri na maskini. Hii ni hali ya kufikirika

There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.

There's a little hump here.

Kuna kituta kidogo hapa. Lakini kuna watu kila sehemu.

But there are people all the way.

And if we look where the income ends up,

Na tukiangalia kipato kinapoishia -- kipato hicho --

this is 100 percent of the world's annual income.

hii ni asilimia 100 ya kipato cha dunia kwa mwaka. Na asilimia 20 ya matajiri wakubwa kabisa,

And the richest 20 percent,

they take out of that about 74 percent.

wanachukua karibu asilimia 74. Na asilimia 20 ya masikini zaidi,

And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.

wanachukua karibu asilimia mbili. Na hii inaonyesha kwamba dhana

And this shows that the concept of developing countries

is extremely doubtful.

ya nchi zinazoendelea ni ya mashaka. Tunafikiria kuhusu misaada, kama

We think about aid,

like these people here giving aid to these people here.

watu hawa wanatoa misaada kwa watu wale pale. Lakini katikati,

But in the middle, we have most of the world population,

tuna idadi kubwa ya watu duniani, wenye asilimia 24 ya kipato.

and they have now 24 percent of the income.

We heard it in other forms.

Tuliyasikia haya kwa namna nyingine. Na hawa ni akina nani?

And who are these?

Nchi mbalimbali ziko wapi? Naweza kukuonyesha Afrika.

Where are the different countries?

I can show you Africa.

This is Africa.

Hii ni Afrika. Asilimia 10 ya idadi ya watu duniani, wengi wao wako kwenye umaskini.

Ten percent of the world population,

most in poverty.

Hii ni OECD. Nchi tajiri. Nchi za kundi la Umoja wa Mataifa.

This is OECD -- the rich countries, the country club of the UN.

And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.

Na wapo huku upande huu. Kuna mwingiliano kati ya Afrika na OECD

And this is Latin America.

Hii hapa ni Amerika Kusini. Ni kila kitu katika dunia hii,

It has everything on this earth, from the poorest to the richest

kuanzia maskini zaidi mpaka matajiri, huko Amerika Kusini.

in Latin America.

Zaidi ya hayo, tunaweza kuiweka Ulaya Mashariki, Asia Mashariki,

And on top of that, we can put East Europe,

we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.

na Asia Kusini. Na ingekuwaje iwapo tungerejea nyuma,

And what did it look like if we go back in time,

to about 1970?

mpaka mwaka 1970? Wakati huo kulikuwa na nundu kubwa zaidi.

Then, there was more of a hump.

Na waliokuwa kwenye umaskini mkubwa zaidi ni Waasia.

And most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.

Tatizo la dunia lilikuwa umaskini huko Asia. Na sasa kama nitaicha dunia isogee mbele,

The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.

And if I now let the world move forward,

you will see that while population increases,

utaona kwamba wakati idadi ya watu inaongezeka, kuna

there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty,

mamia ya milioni huko Asia wanajikwamua kutoka umaskini na wengine

and some others getting into poverty,

wanaingia katika umaskini, na hii ndiyo hali tuliyonayo leo hii.

and this is the pattern we have today.

Na makadirio mazuri kutoka Benki ya Dunia, ni kwamba haya yatatokea,

And the best projection from the World Bank

is that this will happen,

na hatutakuwa na dunia iliyogawanyika. Tutakuwa na watu wengi katikati.

and we will not have a divided world.

We'll have most people in the middle.

Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,

Naam, hiki ni kipimo cha logarithm,

but our concept of economy is growth with percent.

lakini dhana yetu ya uchumi ni kukua kwa asilimia. Tunaiangalia

We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.

kama ni uwezekano wa kuongezeka kwa asilimia. Kama nitabadili hii, na kuchukua

If I change this and take GDP per capita instead of family income,

GDP kwa taifa badala ya kipato cha familia, na ninabadili hivi

and I turn these individual data

takwimu moja moja kwenye takwimu za kanda za GDP,

into regional data of gross domestic product,

and I take the regions down here,

na ninazileta kanda hapa chini, ukubwa wa kiputo bado ni idadi ya watu.

the size of the bubble is still the population.

And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,

Na una OECD pale, na una Afrika Kusini mwa Jangwa la Sahara hapo,

and we take off the Arab states there,

na tunatoa nchi za Kiarabu pale,

coming both from Africa and from Asia,

zinatoka Afrika na Asia, na tunaziweka tofauti,

and we put them separately,

and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,

na tunaweza kuukuza muhimili huu, na ninaipa vipimo vipya hapa,

by adding the social values there, child survival.

kwa kuongeza thamani ya ustawi wa jamii pale, uwezekano wa kusalimika mtoto.

Now I have money on that axis,

Sasa nimeweka pesa pale kwenye mhimili, na nina uwezekano wa watoto kusalimika pale.

and I have the possibility of children to survive there.

In some countries, 99.7% of children survive to five years of age;

Katika baadhi ya nchi, asilimia 99.7 ya watoto wanaishi mpaka miaka mitano;

others, only 70.

wengine, mika 70 tu. Na hapa inaonekana kuna pengo

And here, it seems, there is a gap between OECD,

kati ya OECD, Amerika Kusini, Ulaya Mashariki, Asia Mashariki,

Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,

Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

Nchi za kiarabu, Asia Kusini na Afrika Kusini mwa jangwa la Sahara.

The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.

Uwiano baina ya maisha ya watoto na pesa ni wa karibu sana.

But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.

Lakini hebu niigawanye Afrika Kusini mwa jangwa la Sahara. Afya iko hapa na afya bora iko kule.

Health is there and better health is up there.

I can go here, and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.

Ninaweza kwenda hapa na kuigawa Afrika Kusini mwa jangwa la Sahara katika nchi tofauti.

And when it bursts,

Na ikipasuka, ukubwa wa puto la nchi ni sawa na idadi ya watu.

the size of each country bubble is the size of the population.

Sierra Leone down there, Mauritius is up there.

Hapa chini ni Siera Leone. Mauritus iko pale juu. Mauritius ilikuwa nchi ya kwanza

Mauritius was the first country to get away with trade barriers,

kuondokana na vikwazo vya biashara, na waliweza kuuza sukari yao.

and they could sell their sugar, they could sell their textiles,

Waliweza kuuza nguo kwa taratibu sawa na watu wa Ulaya na Amerika Kaskazini.

on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.

There's a huge difference [within] Africa.

Kuna tofauti kubwa sana ndani ya Afrika. Na Ghana iko hapa katikati.

And Ghana is here in the middle.

In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.

Huko Siera Leone, misaada ya kibinadamu.

Here in Uganda, development aid.

Hapa Uganda, misaada ya maendeleo. Hapa, muda wa kuwekeza, kule,

Here, time to invest; there, you can go for a holiday.

unaweza kwenda kwa mapumziko. Ni tofauti kubwa sana

There's tremendous variation within Africa,

katika Afrika ambayo mara nyingi tunaitambua -- kuwa iko sawa kwa kila kitu.

which we very often make that it's equal everything.

I can split South Asia here. India's the big bubble in the middle.

Naweza kuigawa Asia Kusini hapa. India ni kiputo kikubwa cha katikati.

But there's a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

Lakini kuna tofauti kubwa kati ya Afghanistani na Sri Lanka.

I can split Arab states. How are they?

Naweza kugawa nchi za Kiarabu. Wakoje? Hali ya hewa sawa, utamaduni sawa,

Same climate, same culture, same religion -- huge difference.

dini sawa. Tofauti kubwa. Hata kati ya majirani.

Even between neighbors --

Yemen, civil war;

Yemen, vita vya wao kwa wao. Umoja wa Falme za Kiarabu, pesa ya kutosha ni sawa na ikatumiwa vizuri.

United Arab Emirates, money, which was quite equally and well-used.

Not as the myth is.

Sio kama tunavyofikiria. Na hii inajumuisha watoto wa raia wa kigeni ambao wapo nchini.

And that includes all the children of the foreign workers

who are in the country.

Takwimu ni bora zaidi ya unavyofikiria. Watu wengi wanasema takwimu ni mbaya.

Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.

There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:

Kuna nafasi ya mashaka, lakini tunaweza kuona tofauti hapa:

Cambodia, Singapore. Tofauti ni kubwa

Cambodia, Singapore.

The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data.

zaidi ya udhaifu wa takwimu. Ulaya Mashariki:

East Europe: Soviet economy for a long time,

Uchumi wa Kisovieti muda mrefu, lakini waliweza kujikwamua baada ya miaka kumi

but they come out after 10 years very, very differently.

kwa utofauti sana. Na kuna Amerika Kusini.

And there is Latin America.

Leo, hatuna haja ya kwenda Cuba kutafuta nchi yenye afya bora Amerika Kusini.

Today, we don't have to go to Cuba

to find a healthy country in Latin America.

Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.

Chile itakuwa na idadi ndogo ya vifo vya watoto zaidi ya Cuba miaka michache ijayo kuanzia sasa.

Here, we have high-income countries in the OECD.

Na hapa tuna nchi zenye kipato kikubwa katika OECD.

And we get the whole pattern here of the world,

Na hapa tunapata mwelekeo wote wa ulimwengu,

which is more or less like this.

ambao ni karibu ni sawa na hali hii. Na tukiiangalia,

And if we look at it, how the world looks,

inavyoonekana -- dunia, mwaka 1960, inaanza kusogea. 1960.

in 1960, it starts to move.

This is Mao Zedong. He brought health to China.

Huyu ni Mao Tse-tung. Alileta afya China. Halafu akafariki.

And then he died.

And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,

Halafu akaja Deng Xiaoping na akaleta pesa kwa China, na kuwapandisha chati tena.

and brought them into the mainstream again.

And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,

Na tumeona jinsi nchi zinavyosogea katika mwenendo tofauti kama hivi,

so it's sort of difficult to get an example country

kwa hiyo inakuwa vigumu kupata

mfano wa nchi ambayo inaonyesha mwelekeo wa ulimwengu.

which shows the pattern of the world.

But I would like to bring you back to about here, at 1960.

Ningependa kuwarudisha nyuma mpaka karibu na mwaka 1960.

Ningependa kulinganisha Korea Kusini ambayo ni hii hapa, na Brazil,

I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one,

with Brazil, which is this one.

ambayo ni hii hapa. Kibandiko kimetoka hapa. Na ningependa kufananisha Uganda,

The label went away for me here.

And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there.

ambayo iko kule. Na ninaweza kuileta mbele, kama hivi.

I can run it forward, like this.

Na unaweza kuona jinsi Korea Kusini wanavyosonga mbele kwa kasi sana,

And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement,

whereas Brazil is much slower.

wakati Brazil inakwenda polepole.

And if we move back again, here, and we put trails on them, like this,

Na kama tukirudi nyuma tena, hapa, na tukiweka alama juu yao, kama hivi,

you can see again

unaweza kuona tena kuwa kasi ya maendeleo

that the speed of development is very, very different,

ni tofauti sana, na nchi zinasogea sana au kidogo

and the countries are moving more or less at the same rate

katika kiwango sawa na kukua kwa pesa na afya, lakini inaonekana unaweza kusogea

as money and health,

but it seems you can move much faster

haraka sana iwapo una afya kwanza kuliko ukiwa na pesa kwanza.

if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.

And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirates.

na kuonyesha hii, unaweza kuweka Umoja wa Falme za Kiarabu.

They came from here, a mineral country.

Walitokea hapa, nchi ya madini. Walivuna mafuta yote,

They cached all the oil; they got all the money;

walipata pesa zote, lakini afya haiwezi kununuliwa dukani.

but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.

Inabidi uwekeze kwenye afya. Inabidi uwapeleke watoto shule.

You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling.

You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population.

Inabidi kuwafunza wafanyakazi wa afya. Inabidi kuwaelimisha watu.

And Sheikh Zayed did that in a fairly good way.

Na Sheikh Sayed alifanya hivyo kwa namna nzuri.

In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.

Pamoja na kuanguka kwa bei ya mafuta, aliipandisha nchi yake hapa juu.

So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,

Kwa hiyo tumepata muelekeo wa ulimwengu,

where all countries tend to use their money

ambapo nchi zote zinatabia ya kutumia pesa zao

better than they used it in the past.

vizuri zaidi ya walivyokuwa wakitumia huko nyuma. Naam, hivi ndivyo, zaidi au pungufu kidogo,

Now, this is, more or less, if you look at the average data of the countries --

ukiangalia wastani wa takwimu za nchi. Ziko kama hivi.

they are like this.

That's dangerous, to use average data,

Sasa hii ni hatari, kutumia wastani wa takwimu, kwasababu kuna

because there is such a lot of difference within countries.

tofauti kubwa kati ya nchi. Kwa hiyo nikienda kuangalia hapa, tunaona

So if I go and look here,

we can see that Uganda today is where South Korea was in 1960.

kuwa Uganda ya leo ni mahali ambapo Korea ya Kusnini ilikuwa mwaka 1960. Na kama nikiigawa Uganda,

If I split Uganda, there's quite a difference within Uganda.

kuna tofauti ndani ya Uganda. Hii ni moja ya tano ya takwimu ndani ya Uganda.

These are the quintiles of Uganda.

The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.

Asilimia 20 ya matajiri zaidi wa Uganda wako pale.

The poorest are down there.

Masikini zaidi wako hapa chini. Iwapo nikiigawa Afrika Kusini, iko kama hivi.

If I split South Africa, it's like this.

And if I go down and look at Niger,

Na iwapo nikiangalia Niger, ambako kulikuwa na ukame mbaya sana,

where there was such a terrible famine [recently],

mwishoni, iko kama hivi. Asilimia 20 ya masikini zaidi huko Niger wako hapa,

it's like this.

The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,

and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,

na asilimia 20 ya matajiri zaidi wa Afrika Kusini wako kule,

and yet we tend to discuss what solutions there should be in Africa.

na bado tunatabia ya kuzungumzia kuhusu utatuzi upi unafaa kwa matatizo ya Afrika.

Everything in this world exists in Africa.

Kila kitu kilichopo hapa duniani kinapatikana Afrika. Na hamuwezi

And you can't discuss universal access to HIV [treatment]

kuongelea upatikanaji wa dawa za VVU [madawa] kwa moja ya tano hapa juu

for that quintile up here

with the same strategy as down here.

kwa mkakati sawa kama hapa chini. Maendeleo ya ulimwengu

The improvement of the world must be highly contextualized,

ni lazima yawekwe kwa makundi tofauti, na si lazima kuwa nayo

and it's not relevant to have it on a regional level.

katika ngazi ya kanda. Ni lazima tuingie ndani zaidi.

We must be much more detailed.

Tumetambua kuwa wanafunzi wanapatwa na mshawasha wakiweza kutumia hii.

We find that students get very excited when they can use this.

And even more, policy makers and the corporate sectors

Na wapanga sera na sekta binafsi zingependa kuona

would like to see how the world is changing.

namna gani dunia inabadilika. Sasa, kwanini hii haitokei?

Now, why doesn't this take place?

Why are we not using the data we have?

Kwanini hatutumii takwimu tulizonazo? Tuna takwimu katika Umoja wa Mataifa,

We have data in the United Nations, in the national statistical agencies

na katika taasisi za takwimu za nchi

and in universities and other nongovernmental organizations.

na katika vyuo vikuu na mashirika yasiyo ya kiserikali.

Because the data is hidden down in the databases.

Kwasababu takwimu zimefichwa kwenye masijala.

And the public is there, and the internet is there,

Na umma uko pale, na mtandao wa Intaneti uko, lakini bado hatujautumia ipasavyo.

but we have still not used it effectively.

All that information we saw changing in the world

Taarifa zote tunazoziona zikibadilika duniani

does not include publicly funded statistics.

hazihusishi takwimu zinazogharimiwa na umma. Kuna baadhi ya kurasa za tovuti

There are some web pages like this, you know,

mfano hii, kama ujuavyo, lakini zinachukua kutoka kwenye masijala ya takwimu,

but they take some nourishment down from the databases,

but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.

lakini watu wanaziwekea bei, funguo za siri na takwimu za kuchosha.

(Laughter)

(Kicheko). (Makofi).

And this won't work.

(Applause)

Na hii haitatusaidia. Sasa nini kinatakiwa? Tuna masijala za takwimu.

So what is needed? We have the databases.

It's not a new database that you need.

Si masijala mpya ya takwimu unayoihitaji. Tuna vifaa vizuri vya ubunifu,

We have wonderful design tools and more and more are added up here.

na vingi vinaongezewa hapa. Kwa hiyo tulianzisha

So we started a nonprofit venture linking data to design,

shirika lisilo la kibiashara ambalo tukaliita -- kuunganisha takwimu kwa ubunifu --

we called "Gapminder,"

tunaiita Gapminder, kutoka London chini ya ardhi, ambako wanakuonya,

from the London Underground, where they warn you, "Mind the gap."

"angalia upenyo" Kwa hiyo tulifikiri Gapminder ilikuwa ni sahihi.

So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.

Na tulianza kuandika programu ya kompyuta ambayo ingeweza kuunganisha takwimu kama hivi.

And we started to write software which could link the data like this.

Na haikuwa vigumu sana. Iliwachukua watu wengine miaka kadhaa, na tumetengeneza vielelezo.

And it wasn't that difficult.

It took some person years, and we have produced animations.

You can take a data set and put it there.

Unaweza kuchukua seti ya takwimu na kuiweka hapa.

We are liberating UN data, some few UN organization.

Tunakomboa takwimu za Umoja wa Mataifa, mashirika machache ya Umoja wa Mataifa.

Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world.

Nchi nyingine zinakubali takwimu zao ziwe wazi duniani,

But what we really need is, of course, a search function,

lakini tunachohitaji zaidi ni, kwa hakika, namna ya kuzichambua.

a search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format

Programu ya kutafuta ambayo itakuwezesha kunakili takwimu katika muundo wa kutafutika

and get it out in the world.

na kuiweka wazi duniani. Na nini tunasikia tuzungukapo?

And what do we hear when we go around?

Nimefanya anthopolojia katika sehemu kubwa za takwimu. Kila mtu anasema,

I've done anthropology on the main statistical units.

Everyone says, "It's impossible. This can't be done.

"Haiwezekani. Hii haiwezi kufanyika. Taarifa zetu ni za ovyoovyo

Our information is so peculiar in detail,

so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.

kwa ndani, na kwahiyo haziwezi kupangiliwa zitafutike kama nyingine zinavyoweza kutafutwa.

We cannot give the data free to the students,

Hatuwezi kutoa takwimu bure kwa wanafunzi, bure kwa wajasiliamali wa dunia."

free to the entrepreneurs of the world."

Lakini hivi ndivyo tungependa tuone, au sio?

But this is what we would like to see, isn't it?

Takwimu zilizogharimiwa na umma zipo hapa chini.

The publicly funded data is down here.

And we would like flowers to grow out on the net.

Na tungependa maua yaote nje kwenye mtandao.

One of the crucial points is to make them searchable,

Na jambo la muhimu zaidi ni kuzipangilia ili ziweze kutafutika, na watu waweze kuzitumia

and then people can use the different design tools to animate it there.

vifaa tofauti vya ubunifu kueleleza pale.

Nina habari nzuri kwenu. Nina habari nzuri kwamba,

And I have pretty good news for you.

I have good news that the [current],

new head of UN statistics doesn't say it's impossible.

Mkuu wa Kitengo cha Takwimu cha Umoja wa Mataifa, hasemi haiwezekani.

He only says, "We can't do it."

Anasema, "Hatuwezi kufanya."

(Laughter)

(Kicheko)

And that's a quite clever guy, huh?

Huyu ni mtu mwenye akili, eeeh?

(Laughter)

(Kicheko)

So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.

Kwa hiyo tunaona mambo mengi yakitokea kwenye takwimu katika miaka ijayo.

We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.

Tutaweza kuangalia mgawanyo wa kipato katika namna mpya kabisa.

This is the income distribution of China, 1970.

Huu ni mgao wa kipato huko China, 1970,

This is the income distribution of the United States, 1970.

mgao wa kipato wa Marekani, 1970.

Almost no overlap.

Karibu hakuna mwingiliano, karibu hakuna mwingiliano. Na nini kimetokea?

Almost no overlap.

And what has happened?

What has happened is this:

Kilichotokea ni hiki: China inakua, haiko sawa tena,

that China is growing, it's not so equal any longer,

and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States,

na inatokea hapa, ikiingalia Marekani.

almost like a ghost, isn't it?

Kama vile mzuka, au sio, eeeh?

(Laughter)

(Kicheko)

It's pretty scary.

Inatisha. Lakini nadhani ni muhimu sana kuwa na taarifa hizi.

(Laughter)

But I think it's very important to have all this information.

We need really to see it.

Tunahitaji sana kuziona. Badala ya kuangalia hii,

And instead of looking at this,

I would like to end up by showing the internet users per 1,000.

ningependa kumalizia kwa kuwaonyesha watumiaji wa mtandao kwa kila 1,000.

In this software, we access about 500 variables

Katika programu hii ya kompyuta, tunaweza kupata karibu alama 500 kutoka katika nchi zote kwa urahisi.

from all the countries quite easily.

Inachukua muda kubadilika kwa hii,

It takes some time to change for this,

but on the axes, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.

lakini katika mihimili, unaweza kupata alama yeyote utakayopenda kupata.

Na kitu kizuri itakuwa ni kuziweka masijala za takwimu bure,

And the thing would be to get up the databases free,

to get them searchable, and with a second click,

kuweza kuzifanya ziweze kutafutika, na kuzipata kwa kubonyeza kwa nukta moja

to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.

kwenye mfumo wa michoro majira ya nukta, ambapo utazielewa kwa urahisi.

Now, statisticians don't like it, because they say

Naam, wanatakwimu hawazipendi, kwasababu wanasema kuwa hii

that this will not show the reality;

haitaonyesha hali halisi; inabidi tuwe na mbinu za kuchambua takwimu.

we have to have statistical, analytical methods.

Lakini hii inajenga nadharia.

But this is hypothesis-generating.

I end now with the world.

Ninamalizia sasa na dunia. Pale, mtandao wa intaneti unakuja.

There, the internet is coming.

The number of internet users are going up like this.

Idadi ya wanaotumia mtandao inaongezeka kama hivi. Hii ni GDP per capita

This is the GDP per capita.

Na ni teknolojia mpya inayokuja, lakini cha kushangaza, ni namna ambavyo

And it's a new technology coming in, but then amazingly,

how well it fits to the economy of the countries.

inashabihiana na hali ya uchumi wa nchi. Ndio maana

That's why the $100 computer will be so important.

kompyuta ya dola 100 itakuwa ya muhimu sana. Lakini ni muelekeo mzuri.

But it's a nice tendency.

It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it?

Ni kama vile dunia inakuwa bapa. Au sio? Nchi hizi

These countries are lifting more than the economy,

zinanyanyuka zaidi ya uchumi na itakuwa ni ya kufurahisha

and it will be very interesting to follow this over the year,

kufuatilia hii kwa miaka ijayo, na kama ambavyo ningependa muweze kufanya

as I would like you to be able to do with all the publicly funded data.

kwa kutumia takwimu zilizogharamiwa na umma. Asanteni sana.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

(Makofi)