Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen
2,176,367 views ・ 2007-01-14
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校对人员: Jenny Yang
00:25
About 10 years ago, I took on the task
to teach global development
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大约在十年前, 我担当起
给瑞典大学生讲授全球发展的任务
00:30
to Swedish undergraduate students.
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00:32
That was after having spent
about 20 years,
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之前的20年我一直在非洲研究饥饿问题
00:35
together with African institutions,
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00:36
studying hunger in Africa.
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所以大家以为我对世界有些了解
00:38
So I was sort of expected
to know a little about the world.
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在我们的卡罗林斯卡医学院
00:42
And I started, in our medical university,
Karolinska Institute,
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00:46
an undergraduate course
called Global Health.
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我开设了一门本科生课程“全球健康”
00:49
But when you get that opportunity,
you get a little nervous.
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刚开课的时候我还有些紧张
00:52
I thought, these students coming to us
actually have the highest grade
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因为来听课的都是瑞典大学的优等生
00:55
you can get in the Swedish college system,
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他们或许早已了解我准备教的内容
00:57
so I thought, maybe they know everything
I'm going to teach them about.
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于是在第一堂课里,我作了一个小测试
01:01
So I did a pretest when they came.
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01:03
And one of the questions
from which I learned a lot was this one:
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其中有一道题让我受益匪浅
01:06
"Which country has the highest
child mortality of these five pairs?"
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下列5对国家中,哪一个的儿童死亡率高于另一个?
我所选择的配对国家都是
01:11
And I put them together
so that in each pair of countries,
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01:14
one has twice the child
mortality of the other.
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一个的儿童死亡率是另一个的两倍,因为数据差距很大
01:18
And this means that
it's much bigger, the difference,
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因此数据本身的不确定性可以忽略不计
01:22
than the uncertainty of the data.
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01:24
I won't put you at a test here,
but it's Turkey,
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今天我不会拿这来考大家
01:26
which is highest there, Poland,
Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.
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土耳其,波兰,俄罗斯,巴基斯坦和南非
01:31
And these were the results
of the Swedish students.
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这是瑞典学生的测验结果
01:33
I did it so I got the confidence interval,
which is pretty narrow.
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让我高兴的是
01:36
And I got happy, of course -- a 1.8
right answer out of five possible.
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5题中平均答对的只有1.8题
01:40
That means there was a place
for a professor of international health
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我这个教授还有这门课
01:44
and for my course.
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因此都有了存在的必要
01:45
(Laughter)
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01:46
But one late night,
when I was compiling the report,
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但后来有天深夜,当我写总结报告的时候
01:50
I really realized my discovery.
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我突然有了新的发现
01:53
I have shown that Swedish top students
know, statistically,
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瑞典大学的优等生们对世界的了解
01:57
significantly less about the world
than the chimpanzees.
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竟然还不如黑猩猩
02:01
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
02:03
Because the chimpanzee
would score half right
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因为黑猩猩们至少能蒙对一半
02:06
if I gave them two bananas
with Sri Lanka and Turkey.
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在两个选项旁边各放一根香蕉,就有一半的几率答对。
02:09
They would be right half of the cases.
But the students are not there.
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这些优等生们却做不到。这不是由于知识缺乏
02:12
The problem for me was not ignorance;
it was preconceived ideas.
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而是他们先入为主的错误理念
02:16
I did also an unethical study
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我还把这个测试拿去 给卡罗林斯卡学院的教授们做
02:19
of the professors
of the Karolinska Institute,
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(笑声)
02:22
which hands out
the Nobel Prize in Medicine,
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他们每年负责颁发诺贝尔医学奖
02:24
and they are on par
with the chimpanzee there.
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结果教授们和黑猩猩半斤八两
(笑声)
02:27
(Laughter)
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02:29
This is where I realized that
there was really a need to communicate,
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我意识到很有必要交流一下这个问题
02:33
because the data
of what's happening in the world
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因为多数人并不知道
02:36
and the child health of every country
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世界各国的儿童健康的改善
02:38
is very well aware.
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02:39
So we did this software,
which displays it like this.
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我们作了一个软件,每一个小球代表一个国家
02:42
Every bubble here is a country.
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02:44
This country over here is China.
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这个是中国,这个是印度
02:49
This is India.
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02:50
The size of the bubble is the population,
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小球的尺寸代表该国的人口,X轴是生育率
02:53
and on this axis here,
I put fertility rate.
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02:56
Because my students, what they said
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我曾问过学生们
02:59
when they looked upon the world,
and I asked them,
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如果让你们来审视这个世界
03:01
"What do you really
think about the world?"
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你们的真实想法是什么
其实这些教科书上都是丁丁历险记(带有殖民主义思想的漫画)的人物
03:04
Well, I first discovered
that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.
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03:07
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
03:08
And they said, "The world
is still 'we' and 'them.'
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学生们回答 世界是由“我们和他们”组成的
03:11
And 'we' is the Western world
and 'them' is the Third World."
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“我们”指西方世界 “他们”指第三世界
我又问 “什么是西方世界?”
03:15
"And what do you mean
with 'Western world?'" I said.
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03:17
"Well, that's long life and small family.
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“西方世界寿命长且家庭小; 第三世界寿命短而家庭大。”
03:19
And 'Third World' is short life
and large family."
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那么一起来看看 X轴是生育率,每个妇女的育儿数
03:23
So this is what I could display here.
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03:25
I put fertility rate here --
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03:27
number of children per woman:
one, two, three, four,
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从每人1,2,3,4胎,到8胎
03:30
up to about eight children per woman.
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03:32
We have very good data
since 1962, 1960, about,
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我们有1962年之后的各国家庭大小的可靠数据
03:36
on the size of families in all countries.
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03:38
The error margin is narrow.
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数据误差相当小。Y轴是平均寿命
03:39
Here, I put life expectancy at birth,
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03:41
from 30 years in some countries,
up to about 70 years.
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从30岁到70岁不等
03:45
And in 1962, there was really
a group of countries here
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1962年的时候 的确有一群国家在上面
03:48
that were industrialized countries,
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这些是发达国家,他们家庭小,寿命长
03:50
and they had small families
and long lives.
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03:53
And these were the developing countries.
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而这些则是发展中国家
03:55
They had large families
and they had relatively short lives.
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他们家庭大,寿命也相对短些
03:58
Now, what has happened since 1962?
We want to see the change.
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从1962年到今天 世界有什么变化吗?
04:02
Are the students right?
It's still two types of countries?
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我们来看看 学生们正确吗?国家还是分为2类吗?
04:05
Or have these developing countries
got smaller families and they live here?
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或者发展中国家的家庭变小(这些小球)移动到了左边?
04:09
Or have they got longer lives
and live up there?
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或者发展中国家人们的寿命变长(这些小球)移动到了上面?
04:11
Let's see. We start the world, eh?
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这些数据都来自于联合国
04:13
This is all UN statistics
that have been available.
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大家看到没有?
04:16
Here we go. Can you see there?
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04:17
It's China there, moving against
better health there, improving there.
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这个是中国,他们在往上移动,健康状况不断改善
04:20
All the green Latin American countries
are moving towards smaller families.
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这些绿色的拉丁美洲国家 正朝向小家庭的方向移动
这些黄色的小球是阿拉伯国家
04:24
Your yellow ones here
are the Arabic countries,
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寿命在变长但家庭规模不变
04:27
and they get longer life,
but not larger families.
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04:30
The Africans are the green here.
They still remain here.
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非洲国家是下面的绿球,他们一直在下面
04:33
This is India; Indonesia
is moving on pretty fast.
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这个是印度 印度尼西亚的移动速度非常快
04:36
In the '80s here, you have Bangladesh
still among the African countries.
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(笑声)
80年代的时候 孟加拉国仍然和非洲国家在一起
04:40
But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle
that happens in the '80s --
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但是80年代的奇迹发生在孟加拉国
04:43
the imams start to promote
family planning,
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妈妈们开始宣传和普及计划生育
04:46
and they move up into that corner.
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他们向左上角移动 90年代恐怖的艾滋病流行
04:47
And in the '90s, we have
the terrible HIV epidemic
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04:51
that takes down the life expectancy
of the African countries.
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导致非洲国家的平均寿命缩短
04:54
And the rest of them all
move up into the corner,
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而其他国家都向左上角移动
04:58
where we have long lives and small family,
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大家都有了长寿命和小家庭,而世界也焕然一新了
05:00
and we have a completely new world.
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05:02
(Applause)
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(掌声)
05:13
(Applause ends)
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05:15
Let me make a comparison directly
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现在我们对比一下美国和越南
05:17
between the United States
of America and Vietnam.
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05:20
1964:
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1964年的美国家庭小寿命长
05:22
America had small families and long life;
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05:25
Vietnam had large families
and short lives.
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越南的家庭大而寿命短。这是后来的变化
05:28
And this is what happens.
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05:29
The data during the war indicate
that even with all the death,
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越战时期的数据显示,尽管战争造成伤亡
05:35
there was an improvement
of life expectancy.
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越南人的平均寿命仍有提高
05:37
By the end of the year,
family planning started in Vietnam,
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70年代末期 越南的计划生育减小了家庭规模
05:40
and they went for smaller families.
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05:41
And the United States up there
is getting longer life,
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美国人的平均寿命也在延长
05:44
keeping family size.
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而家庭规模不变
05:45
And in the '80s now,
they give up Communist planning
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到了90年代 越南由计划经济转为市场经济
05:49
and they go for market economy,
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05:50
and it moves faster even than social life.
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其经济发展的速度超过了社会的发展
05:52
And today, we have in Vietnam
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今天(2003)越南人的平均寿命和家庭规模
05:55
the same life expectancy
and the same family size
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已经和越战结束时(1974)的美国一样
06:00
here in Vietnam, 2003,
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06:02
as in United States, 1974,
by the end of the war.
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如果没有看到这些数据的话
06:07
I think we all, if we don't
look at the data,
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06:10
we underestimate
the tremendous change in Asia,
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我们会低估了亚洲的巨大变化
06:14
which was in social change
before we saw the economic change.
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这些超前于经济发展的社会变革
06:18
So let's move over to another way here
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下面我们换个视角
06:21
in which we could display
the distribution in the world
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X轴显示了全世界的收入分布
06:25
of income.
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06:26
This is the world distribution
of income of people.
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每天收入1美元,10美元和100美元
06:31
One dollar, 10 dollars
or 100 dollars per day.
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富与穷之间的鸿沟几乎消失了,简直是个奇迹
06:36
There's no gap between rich
and poor any longer. This is a myth.
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06:39
There's a little hump here.
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这里还有一个很小的峰,但总体上是均数分布的
06:42
But there are people all the way.
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06:43
And if we look where the income ends up,
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我们看看收入的分配情况
06:48
this is 100 percent
of the world's annual income.
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这代表全世界人民每年的全部收入
06:52
And the richest 20 percent,
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06:54
they take out of that about 74 percent.
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最富有的20%那部分人
得到了全部收入的74%
06:59
And the poorest 20 percent,
they take about two percent.
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最贫穷的20%那部分人 只得到2%
07:04
And this shows that the concept
of developing countries
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07:06
is extremely doubtful.
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可见发展中国家的理念 极其的不确切
07:08
We think about aid,
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07:10
like these people here giving aid
to these people here.
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我们总以为最富的人应该给最穷的人提供援助
07:13
But in the middle, we have
most of the world population,
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其实中间这部分才是世界人口的主体 而他们仅得到全部收入的24%
07:17
and they have now
24 percent of the income.
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07:19
We heard it in other forms.
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这是个老问题了,中间这些人是谁?
07:21
And who are these?
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他们在哪些国家?先看非洲
07:24
Where are the different countries?
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07:26
I can show you Africa.
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07:27
This is Africa.
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非洲占世界人口的十分之一,多数是穷人
07:30
Ten percent of the world population,
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07:31
most in poverty.
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这个代表富裕的经合组织成员国,联合国俱乐部的会员
07:33
This is OECD -- the rich countries,
the country club of the UN.
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07:37
And they are over here on this side.
Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.
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他们在这边,很小一部分与非洲重叠
07:42
And this is Latin America.
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这是拉丁美洲,他们可以代表全世界
07:44
It has everything on this earth,
from the poorest to the richest
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从最贫穷到最富有的人都在那里
07:47
in Latin America.
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再往上是东欧,东亚还有南亚
07:49
And on top of that,
we can put East Europe,
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07:52
we can put East Asia,
and we put South Asia.
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过去是什么样子的呢?
07:55
And what did it look like
if we go back in time,
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07:58
to about 1970?
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如果我们回到1970年,这里有一个明显的峰
08:00
Then, there was more of a hump.
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这些绝对贫困的人群中 大多数是亚洲人
08:04
And most who lived
in absolute poverty were Asians.
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那时世界的问题就在于亚洲的贫穷
08:08
The problem in the world
was the poverty in Asia.
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08:10
And if I now let the world move forward,
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08:14
you will see that
while population increases,
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后来随着人口的增长
08:16
there are hundreds of millions
in Asia getting out of poverty,
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数以亿计的亚洲人摆脱了贫困
08:20
and some others getting into poverty,
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另外一些人却陷入贫穷,这就是今天的世界
08:22
and this is the pattern we have today.
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而这是世界银行对未来最乐观的预测
08:24
And the best projection
from the World Bank
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08:26
is that this will happen,
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世界再也不是贫富悬殊的,大多数人拥有中等的收入
08:28
and we will not have a divided world.
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08:29
We'll have most people in the middle.
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08:31
Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,
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当然这是指数幂分布的图
08:33
but our concept of economy
is growth with percent.
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因为经济的增长是用百分比来衡量的
08:37
We look upon it as a possibility
of percentile increase.
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我们用百分比的变化来评估经济增长
08:42
If I change this and take GDP per capita
instead of family income,
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下面把X轴改为人均国内生产总值
08:47
and I turn these individual data
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个人的数据转为各大洲的数据
08:51
into regional data
of gross domestic product,
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08:54
and I take the regions down here,
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球的大小代表人口的多少
08:56
the size of the bubble
is still the population.
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08:58
And you have the OECD there,
and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,
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这个是经合组织国家,这是撒哈拉以南非洲
09:01
and we take off the Arab states there,
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我们把阿拉伯国家
09:04
coming both from Africa and from Asia,
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从非洲和亚洲单独分出来
09:06
and we put them separately,
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09:08
and we can expand this axis,
and I can give it a new dimension here,
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然后把X轴延伸一下 再加上一个新的维度
09:13
by adding the social values
there, child survival.
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一个有社会价值的参数 儿童生存率
09:16
Now I have money on that axis,
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X轴代表经济 Y轴显示儿童存活的比率
09:18
and I have the possibility
of children to survive there.
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09:21
In some countries, 99.7% of children
survive to five years of age;
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一些国家的99.7%的小孩 可以活到5岁以上
09:25
others, only 70.
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另一些国家只有70% 很明显可以看到
09:27
And here, it seems,
there is a gap between OECD,
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经合组织成员国 和拉丁美洲,东欧,东亚
09:30
Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,
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09:33
Arab states, South Asia
and sub-Saharan Africa.
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阿拉伯国家,南亚 以及撒哈拉以南非洲地区的差距
09:37
The linearity is very strong
between child survival and money.
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儿童生存率和经济之间 联系非常紧密
09:42
But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.
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下面把撒哈拉以南非洲地区 分解成各个国家
09:45
Health is there
and better health is up there.
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09:50
I can go here, and I can split
sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.
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分布靠上边的国家 拥有更高的健康水平
09:55
And when it bursts,
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撒哈拉以南的非洲各国是如此分布的 小球的尺寸代表该国人口
09:56
the size of each country bubble
is the size of the population.
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10:00
Sierra Leone down there,
Mauritius is up there.
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塞拉里昂在下边 毛里求斯在上边
10:02
Mauritius was the first country
to get away with trade barriers,
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毛里求斯是第一个消除了贸易壁垒的国家
10:06
and they could sell their sugar,
they could sell their textiles,
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他们的蔗糖和纺织品的贸易协定 与欧洲和北美一样
10:10
on equal terms as the people
in Europe and North America.
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10:13
There's a huge difference [within] Africa.
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但是非洲内部的差异非常巨大 加纳在中部
10:15
And Ghana is here in the middle.
200
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10:17
In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.
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塞拉里昂需要人道主义援助
10:20
Here in Uganda, development aid.
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乌干达则需要发展援助 在加纳可以进行投资了
10:23
Here, time to invest;
there, you can go for a holiday.
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毛里求斯则可以去度假 非洲内部的差异之大确实很惊人
10:27
There's tremendous variation
within Africa,
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而我们却总以为 非洲国家都差不多
10:29
which we very often make
that it's equal everything.
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10:33
I can split South Asia here.
India's the big bubble in the middle.
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下面分解南亚各国 印度是中间的蓝色大球
10:37
But there's a huge difference
between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
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4440
而斯里兰卡和阿富汗有着巨大差异
10:41
I can split Arab states. How are they?
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把阿拉伯世界分解来看 尽管是相同的气候,相同的文化
10:43
Same climate, same culture,
same religion -- huge difference.
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4132
相同的宗教 却有巨大的差异
10:48
Even between neighbors --
210
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10:49
Yemen, civil war;
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也门在打内战 邻国阿联酋却躺在钱堆里
10:50
United Arab Emirates, money,
which was quite equally and well-used.
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4166
10:54
Not as the myth is.
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1782
而且(阿联酋的)儿童健康数据 包含了所有的外籍劳工
10:56
And that includes all the children
of the foreign workers
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11:00
who are in the country.
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大家总说数据不准确 数据其实比我们想象的好很多
11:02
Data is often better than you think.
Many people say data is bad.
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3692
11:06
There is an uncertainty margin,
but we can see the difference here:
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数据是有误差
但柬埔寨和新加坡的差距肯定远大于数据的误差
11:09
Cambodia, Singapore.
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1362
11:10
The differences are much bigger
than the weakness of the data.
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再看东欧
11:13
East Europe: Soviet economy
for a long time,
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在苏联经济模式下发展了多年 但在过去10年
11:18
but they come out after 10 years
very, very differently.
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却经历了巨大的变化
11:21
And there is Latin America.
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当今的拉丁美洲 古巴再也不是唯一的健康国家了
11:24
Today, we don't have to go to Cuba
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11:25
to find a healthy country
in Latin America.
224
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11:27
Chile will have a lower child mortality
than Cuba within some few years from now.
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几年后智利的儿童死亡率将低于古巴
11:32
Here, we have high-income
countries in the OECD.
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这些是经合组织成员国
11:35
And we get the whole pattern
here of the world,
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这里显示的就是我们的世界
11:39
which is more or less like this.
228
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2151
大概就是这样的情形 如果我们回到过去
11:41
And if we look at it, how the world looks,
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看看世界是怎样的 从1960年开始
11:46
in 1960, it starts to move.
230
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11:50
This is Mao Zedong.
He brought health to China.
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1960年(中国有)毛泽东 他给中国带来了健康
11:52
And then he died.
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1166
11:53
And then Deng Xiaoping came
and brought money to China,
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2612
他去世后邓小平给中国带来了金钱 同时把中国带回到世界的主流当中
11:56
and brought them
into the mainstream again.
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2054
11:58
And we have seen how countries
move in different directions like this,
235
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4158
其他国家的移动方向也不尽相同
12:02
so it's sort of difficult to get
an example country
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很难找出哪个国家
能代表全世界的发展模式
12:08
which shows the pattern of the world.
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12:10
But I would like to bring you back
to about here, at 1960.
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6854
我们回到1960年做个比较
先选中韩国(左边的小黄球)巴西(右边的黄绿色大球)
12:18
I would like to compare
South Korea, which is this one,
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6991
12:25
with Brazil, which is this one.
240
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3358
乌干达(Y轴上面的小红球)
12:29
The label went away for me here.
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1782
12:30
And I would like to compare
Uganda, which is there.
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2925
随着时间的推移,我们看到
12:34
I can run it forward, like this.
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韩国的发展速度非常非常快
12:39
And you can see how South Korea is making
a very, very fast advancement,
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12:46
whereas Brazil is much slower.
245
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巴西就慢得多
12:49
And if we move back again, here,
and we put trails on them, like this,
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6144
我们再回到过去 给每个球画出运动的轨迹
12:55
you can see again
247
775545
2403
可以看到,发展速度的差距非常大
12:57
that the speed of development
is very, very different,
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3332
虽然各国的经济和健康 发展的轨迹大同小异
13:01
and the countries are moving
more or less at the same rate
249
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5760
但是健康水平起点较高的国家
13:07
as money and health,
250
787112
1427
13:08
but it seems you can move much faster
251
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1929
发展速度远超过经济水平起点高的
13:10
if you are healthy first
than if you are wealthy first.
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2918
13:14
And to show that, you can put
on the way of United Arab Emirates.
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4158
为了说明这一点 我们看看阿联酋
13:18
They came from here, a mineral country.
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2674
他们从这里出发 一个资源型国家
13:20
They cached all the oil;
they got all the money;
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2467
他们靠石油大把赚钱 但健康绝不是超市里的货物
13:23
but health cannot be bought
at the supermarket.
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803371
2436
需要卫生方面的投资 需要提高儿童的教育水平
13:26
You have to invest in health.
You have to get kids into schooling.
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806516
3147
13:29
You have to train health staff.
You have to educate the population.
258
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需要培训卫生工作者 还要教育民众
13:32
And Sheikh Zayed did that
in a fairly good way.
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2356
Sheikh Sayed 干的非常漂亮
13:35
In spite of falling oil prices,
he brought this country up here.
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3963
尽管油价下跌了 他仍改善了阿联酋的健康
13:39
So we've got a much more mainstream
appearance of the world,
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3708
这里我们可以看到 世界发展的主流
13:43
where all countries tend
to use their money
262
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2527
各国对资金的分配和使用
13:45
better than they used it in the past.
263
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2295
都比过去合理的多
13:49
Now, this is, more or less, if you look
at the average data of the countries --
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6978
这里大家看到各国的数据 基本上都是平均数
13:56
they are like this.
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1194
13:57
That's dangerous, to use average data,
266
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3409
但是用平均数可能会很危险 因为国家内部也存在很大的差异
14:00
because there is such
a lot of difference within countries.
267
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3845
我们看这里
14:04
So if I go and look here,
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844791
2494
14:07
we can see that Uganda today
is where South Korea was in 1960.
269
847309
6545
今天的乌干达和1960年的韩国差不多
14:13
If I split Uganda, there's quite
a difference within Uganda.
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3788
如果把乌干达分解开 可以看到内部的明显差异
14:17
These are the quintiles of Uganda.
271
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1988
14:19
The richest 20 percent
of Ugandans are there.
272
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2180
乌干达最富有的20%在右边
14:21
The poorest are down there.
273
861906
1471
最贫穷的在左下边 如果把南非分解开
14:23
If I split South Africa, it's like this.
274
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2831
14:26
And if I go down and look at Niger,
275
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3009
尼日在下边 他们刚遭受一场恐怖的饥荒
14:29
where there was such
a terrible famine [recently],
276
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3493
最贫穷的20%的尼日人在最左边
14:32
it's like this.
277
872806
1151
14:33
The 20 percent poorest
of Niger is out here,
278
873981
2757
14:36
and the 20 percent richest
of South Africa is there,
279
876762
2769
而最富有的20%的南非人在最右边
14:39
and yet we tend to discuss
what solutions there should be in Africa.
280
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4421
今天我们仍然在讨论 什么方案能解决非洲的问题
14:44
Everything in this world exists in Africa.
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2567
世界上所有的问题非洲都有
14:46
And you can't discuss
universal access to HIV [treatment]
282
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3275
我们不可能讨论出一套通用方案 既能解决这些地方的艾滋病问题
14:49
for that quintile up here
283
889890
1919
14:51
with the same strategy as down here.
284
891833
2625
同时也适用于这些地方
14:54
The improvement of the world
must be highly contextualized,
285
894482
3706
世界的发展一定要因地制宜来分析
14:58
and it's not relevant to have it
on a regional level.
286
898212
3653
仅从各大洲的水平上来分析是不够的
15:01
We must be much more detailed.
287
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1530
当学生们接触到这个软件的时候 他们都非常兴奋
15:04
We find that students get very excited
when they can use this.
288
904070
3326
15:07
And even more, policy makers
and the corporate sectors
289
907420
3618
此外,政策制定者,各企业部门 都会想知道世界的变化
15:11
would like to see
how the world is changing.
290
911062
3661
但为什么大家仍然不知道(世界的变化)
15:14
Now, why doesn't this take place?
291
914747
1875
15:16
Why are we not using the data we have?
292
916646
2303
为什么我们无法使用已知的数据呢
15:18
We have data in the United Nations,
in the national statistical agencies
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918973
3810
我们的联合国,国家统计部门
15:22
and in universities and other
nongovernmental organizations.
294
922807
3169
学院还有非政府组织都拥有数据
15:26
Because the data is hidden
down in the databases.
295
926000
2737
但数据被隐藏在底层的数据库里
15:28
And the public is there,
and the internet is there,
296
928761
2530
而公众在上面(太阳)互联网在这里(地平线)并未得到有效的使用
15:31
but we have still not used it effectively.
297
931315
2160
15:33
All that information
we saw changing in the world
298
933499
2675
之前我们看到的 关于世界变化的信息
15:36
does not include
publicly funded statistics.
299
936198
2941
并不包括公众资助的统计数据
15:39
There are some web pages
like this, you know,
300
939163
2371
的确有一些网站依靠数据库的营养而存在着
15:41
but they take some nourishment
down from the databases,
301
941558
4703
15:46
but people put prices on them,
stupid passwords and boring statistics.
302
946285
4972
但这是要收费的 还有愚蠢的密码和讨厌的统计表格
15:51
(Laughter)
303
951281
1108
(笑声,掌声)
15:52
And this won't work.
304
952413
1422
15:53
(Applause)
305
953859
2556
这个是行不通的 我们需要什么?
15:56
So what is needed? We have the databases.
306
956439
2422
15:58
It's not a new database that you need.
307
958885
1867
数据库是现成的 不需要新的数据库
16:00
We have wonderful design tools
and more and more are added up here.
308
960776
3805
我们有很好的视觉软件 还将有更多的问世
16:04
So we started a nonprofit venture
linking data to design,
309
964605
6130
于是我们成立了一个非营利机构
16:10
we called "Gapminder,"
310
970759
1156
我们称之为“数据与图样的联结” - Gapminder
16:11
from the London Underground,
where they warn you, "Mind the gap."
311
971939
3097
灵感来自伦敦地铁(他们提醒乘客“小心列车与站台间的缝隙”)
16:15
So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.
312
975060
1959
而且我们制作了一个软件 把数据和图样联结起来
16:17
And we started to write software
which could link the data like this.
313
977043
4181
这个并不难 需要几个人花几年时间
16:21
And it wasn't that difficult.
314
981248
1547
16:22
It took some person years,
and we have produced animations.
315
982819
3723
16:26
You can take a data set and put it there.
316
986566
2233
建立数据库后大家就能看到动画
16:28
We are liberating UN data,
some few UN organization.
317
988823
4476
我们正尝试解放联合国的数据库
16:33
Some countries accept that
their databases can go out on the world.
318
993323
4278
少数联合国机构和几个国家已经开放了数据库
16:37
But what we really need is,
of course, a search function,
319
997625
3245
但我们最需要的是数据搜索引擎
16:40
a search function where we can copy
the data up to a searchable format
320
1000894
4502
依靠搜索引擎 我们先把原始数据复制成可搜索的格式
16:45
and get it out in the world.
321
1005420
1518
再把数据发布到全世界 外界对这个设想的反应如何呢?
16:46
And what do we hear when we go around?
322
1006962
2165
我尝试跟几个大型统计机构交涉
16:49
I've done anthropology
on the main statistical units.
323
1009151
3118
16:52
Everyone says, "It's impossible.
This can't be done.
324
1012293
3009
所有人都说这是不可能的 “这行不通,我们的信息很独特,
16:55
Our information is so peculiar in detail,
325
1015326
2510
16:57
so that cannot be searched
as others can be searched.
326
1017860
3104
不可能像其它数据那样检索的出来
17:00
We cannot give the data
free to the students,
327
1020988
2355
我们也不能免费把数据开放 给全世界的学生们和企业部门使用。”
17:03
free to the entrepreneurs of the world."
328
1023367
2126
但这正是我们期望看到的,不是吗?
17:06
But this is what we would
like to see, isn't it?
329
1026256
2346
下边是公众资助采集的数据
17:09
The publicly funded data is down here.
330
1029175
2424
17:11
And we would like flowers
to grow out on the net.
331
1031623
3035
我们希望互联网上长出美丽的花朵
17:14
One of the crucial points
is to make them searchable,
332
1034682
3270
关键的一步 是让这些数据可被搜索到
17:17
and then people can use the different
design tools to animate it there.
333
1037976
4287
并借助软件实现动画的演示
我有个很好的消息要告诉大家
17:22
And I have pretty good news for you.
334
1042287
2294
17:24
I have good news that the [current],
335
1044605
2194
17:26
new head of UN statistics
doesn't say it's impossible.
336
1046823
3486
新上任的联合国统计部门的领导 并没有说这是不可能的
17:30
He only says, "We can't do it."
337
1050333
1856
他只说“我们不能这么做。”
17:32
(Laughter)
338
1052772
3532
(笑声)
17:36
And that's a quite clever guy, huh?
339
1056328
1883
他很聪明吧
17:38
(Laughter)
340
1058235
1849
(笑声)
17:40
So we can see a lot happening
in data in the coming years.
341
1060108
4365
未来几年中 我们将会看到数据库的变化
17:44
We will be able to look at income
distributions in completely new ways.
342
1064497
4376
我们会用全新的视角 来看收入的分配
17:48
This is the income distribution
of China, 1970.
343
1068897
5079
这是1970年中国的收入分配
17:54
This is the income distribution
of the United States, 1970.
344
1074000
4796
这是1970年美国的收入分配
17:58
Almost no overlap.
345
1078820
1851
几乎没有重叠 后来呢?
18:00
Almost no overlap.
346
1080695
1411
18:02
And what has happened?
347
1082130
1716
18:03
What has happened is this:
348
1083870
1481
中国在增长,再也不像以前那样平等了
18:05
that China is growing,
it's not so equal any longer,
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18:08
and it's appearing here,
overlooking the United States,
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它出现在右边,俯视着美国
18:12
almost like a ghost, isn't it?
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是不是像个鬼一样
18:14
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
18:16
It's pretty scary.
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很吓人吧 我认为这些信息很重要
18:17
(Laughter)
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18:22
But I think it's very important
to have all this information.
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18:26
We need really to see it.
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大家很有必要看到这些
18:29
And instead of looking at this,
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18:32
I would like to end up by showing
the internet users per 1,000.
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另外我最后要给大家展示 每千人中的网民数量
18:37
In this software, we access
about 500 variables
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这个软件能让我们很容易的看到 全球各国的近500个参数
18:40
from all the countries quite easily.
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通过点击坐标轴
18:43
It takes some time to change for this,
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18:46
but on the axes, you can quite easily
get any variable you would like to have.
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你能轻易改变参数的设定
我们的初衷是 数据免费下载且易于查找
18:52
And the thing would be
to get up the databases free,
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18:56
to get them searchable,
and with a second click,
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然后再点一下鼠标 数据就成为图表的形式
18:59
to get them into the graphic formats,
where you can instantly understand them.
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那样大家就可以 立刻看明白这些数据了
19:04
Now, statisticians don't like it,
because they say
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统计学家们不喜欢这样子
19:07
that this will not show the reality;
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他们认为这不能准确地反映事实 传统的统计和分析方法是不能取代的
19:14
we have to have statistical,
analytical methods.
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但数据动画可以帮助提出假说
19:17
But this is hypothesis-generating.
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19:19
I end now with the world.
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最后我们看一下当今的互联网世界
19:22
There, the internet is coming.
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19:23
The number of internet users
are going up like this.
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网民数量不断向上攀升(X轴是)人均国民生产总值
19:26
This is the GDP per capita.
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互联网是一项新技术 但令人惊讶的是
19:28
And it's a new technology coming in,
but then amazingly,
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19:31
how well it fits to the economy
of the countries.
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它的普及和国家的经济水平极其一致
19:35
That's why the $100 computer
will be so important.
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这也解释了100美元电脑的重要性 但这是很好的趋势
19:38
But it's a nice tendency.
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19:40
It's as if the world
is flattening off, isn't it?
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世界各国的差距将会缩小,不是吗
19:42
These countries are lifting more
than the economy,
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这些国家的互联网普及速度 超过了经济的发展速度
19:45
and it will be very interesting
to follow this over the year,
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我也希望大家都可以 自由使用公众资助采集的数据
19:48
as I would like you to be able to do
with all the publicly funded data.
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非常感谢!
19:52
Thank you very much.
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19:53
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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