Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen

Translator: Elmedin Zubović Reviewer: Mateja Nenadovic

About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development

Prije nekih deset godina, uzeo sam si za zadatak da podučavam globalnom razvoju

studente dodiplomskog studija u Švedskoj, i to nakon što sam proveo

to Swedish undergraduate students.

That was after having spent about 20 years,

oko dvadeset godina zajedno sa afričkim institucijama izučavajući problem gladi u Africi,

together with African institutions,

studying hunger in Africa.

tako da se od mene nekako očekuje da znam ponešto o svijetu.

So I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.

I počeo sam sa predavanjima, na našem Medicinskom fakultetu pri Karolinska Institutu, prvo

And I started, in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,

an undergraduate course called Global Health.

kursom za dodiplomce, nazvanim Globalno Zdravlje. Ali kada vam se

But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.

pruži takva prilika, malo se unervozite. Pomislih, ovi studenti

I thought, these students coming to us actually have the highest grade

koji nam pristižu ustvari imaju najveće ocjene koje se mogu dobiti

you can get in the Swedish college system,

u švedskom sistemu višeg obrazovanja--tako da možda znaju sve

so I thought, maybe they know everything I'm going to teach them about.

čemu ću ih podučavati. Tako da sam uradio blic kviz prije no što su došli.

So I did a pretest when they came.

And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:

I jedno od pitanja iz kojeg sam ponajviše naučio jeste ovo:

"Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"

''Koja zemlja ima najvišu stopu smrtnosti djece od ovih pet parova?''

A parove sam sastavio tako da u svakom paru zemalja,

And I put them together so that in each pair of countries,

one has twice the child mortality of the other.

jedna od njih ima dvostruko veću stopu smrtnosti djece nego druga zemlja što znači da

And this means that it's much bigger, the difference,

je mnogo veća razlika nego neizvjesnost podataka.

than the uncertainty of the data.

I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey,

Vas neću testirati, ali to je Turska

which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.

koja ima najvišu stopu, Poljska, Rusija, Pakistan i Južnoafrička Republika.

And these were the results of the Swedish students.

I evo koje rezultate sam dobio od švedskih studenata. Rezultate sam uradio tako

I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow.

da sam dobio interval pouzdanosti, koji je poprilično ograničen, što je mene naravno

And I got happy, of course -- a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.

usrećilo: 1.8 tačnih odgovora od ukupnih pet. To znači da

That means there was a place for a professor of international health

je tu bilo mjesta za rad za jednog profesora internacionalnog zdravlja--

and for my course.

(smijeh) i mjesta za moju obuku.

(Laughter)

But one late night, when I was compiling the report,

Ali jedne kasne večeri, dok sam sastavljao izvještaj

I really realized my discovery.

ustvari sam shvatio moje otkriće. Pokazao sam

I have shown that Swedish top students know, statistically,

da švedski vrhunski studenti prema statističkim podacima znaju značajno manje

significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.

o svijetu nego čimpanze.

(Laughter)

Smijeh

Because the chimpanzee would score half right

jer bi čimpanze dale pola tačnih odgovora da sam im dao

if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.

dvije banane koje predstavljaju Šri Lanku i Tursku. Bili bi u pravu u barem pola slučajeva.

They would be right half of the cases. But the students are not there.

Ali za razliku od njih, studenti ne bi. Za mene problem ne predstavlja neznanje,

The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.

nego već smišljene ideje.

I did also an unethical study

Takođe sam uradio isto, ali ne tako etično istraživanje sa profesorima na Karolinska Institutu

of the professors of the Karolinska Institute,

Smijeh

which hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,

-- koji dodjeljuju Nobelovu nagradu za medicinska postignuća,

and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.

i oni su imali neriješen rezultat sa čimpanzama.

Smijeh

(Laughter)

This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,

Tada sam shvatio da stvarno postoji potreba za komunikacijom

because the data of what's happening in the world

jer podaci o tome šta se događa u svijetu

and the child health of every country

i podaci o zdravlju djece u svakoj pojedinoj zemlji su opštepoznati.

is very well aware.

So we did this software, which displays it like this.

Napravili smo ovaj program koji to predočava ovako: svaki krug predstavlja zemlju.

Every bubble here is a country.

This country over here is China.

Ova zemlja ovdje je Kina. Ovo je Indija.

This is India.

The size of the bubble is the population,

Veličina kruga predstavlja populaciju,i na ovu osu ovdje sam stavio stopu plodnosti.

and on this axis here, I put fertility rate.

Because my students, what they said

Jer studenti, kako oni kažu

when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,

kad gledaju na svijet, i kada sam ih ja upitao:

"What do you really think about the world?"

''Šta stvarno mislite o svijetu?''

Prvo sam otkrio da je udžbenik ustvari Tintin strip.

Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.

(Laughter)

Smijeh

And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.'

Pa su oni odgovorili: ''Svijet je i dalje 'mi' i 'oni',

And 'we' is the Western world and 'them' is the Third World."

pod 'mi' misle na Zapadni svijet a 'oni' su Zemlje trećeg svijeta.

''A šta mislite kad kažete zapadni svijet?'', rekoh.

"And what do you mean with 'Western world?'" I said.

"Well, that's long life and small family.

''Pa, to je dug život i mala porodica, a Zemlje trećeg svijeta imaju kratke živote i velike porodice.''

And 'Third World' is short life and large family."

I evo šta sam ja ovdje prikazao. Ovdje sam stavio stopu plodnosti: broj djece po ženi,

So this is what I could display here.

I put fertility rate here --

number of children per woman: one, two, three, four,

jedno, dvoje,troje,četvero, pa sve do osmero djece po ženi.

up to about eight children per woman.

We have very good data since 1962, 1960, about,

Imamo vrlo dobre podatke od 1962., pardon, 1960-te, o veličini porodica u svim zemljama.

on the size of families in all countries.

The error margin is narrow.

Mogućnost za pogrešku je poprilično sužena. Ovdje sam stavio prosječni životni vijek pri rođenju,

Here, I put life expectancy at birth,

from 30 years in some countries, up to about 70 years.

od nekih 30 do 70 godina u nekim zemljama.

And in 1962, there was really a group of countries here

A 1962, imamo grupu zemalja,

that were industrialized countries,

industrijaliziranih zemalja, i one su imale male porodice i duge živote.

and they had small families and long lives.

And these were the developing countries.

A ovo ovdje su bile zemlje u razvoju:

They had large families and they had relatively short lives.

imale su velike porodice i relativno kratke živote.

Now, what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.

E, šta se dogodilo od 1962. godine pa nadalje? Želimo da vidimo promjenu.

Are the students right? It's still two types of countries?

Jesu li studenti u pravu? Da li su to ustvari i dalje dva različita tipa zemalja?

Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?

Ili jesu li ove zemlje u razvoju osnovale manje porodice i oni žive ovdje?

Or have they got longer lives and live up there?

Ili imaju dulje živote i žive ovdje gore?

Let's see. We start the world, eh?

Da vidimo. Zaustavili smo svijet. Ova statistika koja nam je dostupna je

This is all UN statistics that have been available.

statistika UN-a. Idemo. Možete li vidjeti ono ondje?

Here we go. Can you see there?

It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there.

To je Kina tamo, kreće se prema boljem zdravlju tamo, tu se poboljšava.

All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.

Sve zemlje Latinske Amerike, obojene u zeleno se miču prema manjim porodicama.

Ove žute ovdje su arapske zemlje,

Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,

i one imaju veće porodice, ne, ne-- imaju dulje živote, ne veće porodice.

and they get longer life, but not larger families.

The Africans are the green here. They still remain here.

Afrikanci su ovi zeleni ovdje dolje. I dalje ostaju tu.

This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast.

Ovo je Indija. Indonezija se kreće veoma brzo.

In the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries.

Smijeh

A osamdesetih godina, imate Bangladeš i dalje među afričkim zemljama.

But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s --

Ali sada, Bangladeš - to je čudo šta se dogodilo osamdesetih,

the imams start to promote family planning,

imami promoviraju planiranje porodica.

and they move up into that corner.

Pomjeraju se u taj ćošak. A devedesetih godina, imamo užasnu epidemiju virusa HIV

And in the '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic

that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries.

koja znatno spušta životni vijek pojedinh afričkih zemalja

And the rest of them all move up into the corner,

a sve ostale zemlje se pomjeraju u taj ćošak,

where we have long lives and small family,

gdje imamo dulje živote i male porodice, i imamo potpuno novi svijet.

and we have a completely new world.

(Applause)

Aplauz

(Applause ends)

Let me make a comparison directly

Dopustite mi da napravim direktno poređenje između Sjedinjenih Američkih Država i Vijetnama.

between the United States of America and Vietnam.

1964:

1964.: SAD su imale manje porodice i dug život;

America had small families and long life;

Vietnam had large families and short lives.

Vijetnam je imao velike porodice i kratke živote. I evo šta se događa:

And this is what happens.

The data during the war indicate that even with all the death,

podaci tokom rata pokazuju da uprkos svim smrtnim gubicima,

there was an improvement of life expectancy.

primjećujemo poboljšanje, odnosno povećanje životnog vijeka. Do kraja godine,

By the end of the year, family planning started in Vietnam,

planiranje porodica je krenulo u Vijetnamu i odlučili su se za manje porodice.

and they went for smaller families.

And the United States up there is getting longer life,

A SAD,tu gore, su se odlučile za dulji život,

keeping family size.

održavajući veličinu porodice. A u osamdesetim,

And in the '80s now, they give up Communist planning

odriču se komunističkih ideja i odlučuju se za tržišnu ekonomiju,

and they go for market economy,

and it moves faster even than social life.

koja se pomjera brže od društvenog života. Zato danas, u Vijetnamu

And today, we have in Vietnam

imamo isti životni vijek i istu veličinu porodice 2003. godine,

the same life expectancy and the same family size

kao što je bila u SAD-u 1974., pri završetku rata.

here in Vietnam, 2003,

as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.

Mislim da svi mi - ukoliko ne gledamo u podatke -

I think we all, if we don't look at the data,

we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia,

potcjenjujemo ogromnu promjenu u Aziji, koja je

which was in social change before we saw the economic change.

ustvari prvo bila društvena, pa tek onda ekonomska promjena.

So let's move over to another way here

Haj'd da pogledamo jedan drugi način na koji možemo predstaviti

in which we could display the distribution in the world

raspodjelu u svijetu prihoda. Ovo je svjetska rapodjela prihoda ljudi.

of income.

This is the world distribution of income of people.

Jedan dolar, deset dolara ili stotinu dolara na dan.

One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.

Ne postoji više praznina između bogatih i siromašnih. To je mit.

There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.

There's a little hump here.

Ovo je mala hrpa ovdje. Ali čitavim putem imamo ljude.

But there are people all the way.

And if we look where the income ends up,

A ako pogledamo gdje završavaju prihodi --prihodi--

this is 100 percent of the world's annual income.

ovo je 100 % od svjetskog godišnjeg prihoda. A najbogatijih 20 %,

And the richest 20 percent,

they take out of that about 74 percent.

od toga uzimaju nekih 74 %. A najsiromašnijih 20 %,

And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.

uzimaju oko 2 %. Ovo pokaziva da je koncept

And this shows that the concept of developing countries

is extremely doubtful.

zemalja u razvoju veoma sumnjiv. Razmišljamo o pomoći,

We think about aid,

like these people here giving aid to these people here.

kao da ovi ljudi pomažu ove ljude ovdje. Ali u sredini,

But in the middle, we have most of the world population,

imamo većinu svjetske populacije, i oni sada imaju 24 % prihoda.

and they have now 24 percent of the income.

We heard it in other forms.

O tome smo čuli i na drukčije načine. A ko su ovi?

And who are these?

Gdje su različite zemlje? Mogu vam pokazati Afriku.

Where are the different countries?

I can show you Africa.

This is Africa.

Ovo je Afrika. 10 % svjetske populacije, većina u siromaštvu.

Ten percent of the world population,

most in poverty.

Ovo je OECD (Organizacija zemalja za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj). Bogate Zemlje. Klub zemalja UN-a.

This is OECD -- the rich countries, the country club of the UN.

And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.

I one su ovdje na ovoj strani. Poprilično podudaranje između Afrike i OECD-a.

And this is Latin America.

Ovo ovdje je Latinska Amerika. Ima sve na planeti Zemlji,

It has everything on this earth, from the poorest to the richest

od najsiromašnijih do najbogatijih.

in Latin America.

Povrh svega ovoga, možemo staviti Istočnu Evropu, zatim istočnu Aziju,

And on top of that, we can put East Europe,

we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.

te Južnu Aziju. Kakvo je stanje bilo ako bismo se vratili kroz vrijeme,

And what did it look like if we go back in time,

to about 1970?

do neke 1970.? Tada je bila veća ova hrpa.

Then, there was more of a hump.

Ovdje vidimo da su većina onih koji su živjeli u siromaštvu Azijci.

And most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.

Problem svijeta je tada bio siromaštvo Azije. Ali ako sada svijet malo naprijed pomjerimo,

The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.

And if I now let the world move forward,

you will see that while population increases,

vidjet ćete da porastom stanovništva, stotine

there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty,

miliona Azijaca izlazi iz okvira siromaštva, a neki drugi

and some others getting into poverty,

ulaze u taj isti okvir, i evo koji pater dobijamo danas.

and this is the pattern we have today.

Najbolje razmatranje iz Svjetske Banke je da će se ovo dogoditi,

And the best projection from the World Bank

is that this will happen,

te da više nećemo imati podjeljen svijet. Imat ćemo većinu ljudi u sredini.

and we will not have a divided world.

We'll have most people in the middle.

Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,

Naravno, ovo ovdje je logaritamska skala,

but our concept of economy is growth with percent.

ali naš koncept ekonomije je rast uz postotak. Na to gledamo kao

We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.

na mogućnost povećanja procenta. Ako ovo promijenim, i uzmem

If I change this and take GDP per capita instead of family income,

(BDP) bruto domaći proizvod po osobi umjesto porodičnih prihoda, i ove

and I turn these individual data

individualne podatke promijenim u regionalni bruto domaći proizvod,

into regional data of gross domestic product,

and I take the regions down here,

a regije spustim ovdje dolje gdje je veličina kruga i dalje stanovništvo.

the size of the bubble is still the population.

And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,

Ovdje imate OECD (Organizacija zemalja za ekonomsku saradnju i razvoj), i imate subsaharsku Afriku,

and we take off the Arab states there,

a ovdje skinemo arapske zemlje,

coming both from Africa and from Asia,

bilo afričke ili azijske, i stavimo ih odvojeno,

and we put them separately,

and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,

zatim proširimo ovu osu, dodamo novu dimenziju,

by adding the social values there, child survival.

dodavajući društvene vrijednosti i opstanak djece.

Now I have money on that axis,

Sada, imamo novac na toj osi, i vjerovatnoću da djeca tu prežive.

and I have the possibility of children to survive there.

In some countries, 99.7% of children survive to five years of age;

U nekim zemljama, 99.7 % djece do pet godina preživi;

others, only 70.

u nekim drugim, samo 70%. A ovdje se čini da imamo jaz

And here, it seems, there is a gap between OECD,

između OECD-a, Latinske Amerike, istočne Evrope, istočne Azije,

Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,

Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

arapskih zemalja, južne Azije i subsaharske Afrike.

The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.

Ravnomjernost je veoma jaka između opstanka djece i novca.

But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.

Ali hajd' da podijelim subsaharsku Afriku. Zdravlje je tu, a bolje zdravlje tu gore.

Health is there and better health is up there.

I can go here, and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.

Mogu ići ovdje i podijeliti subsaharsku Afriku na sve njene zemlje.

And when it bursts,

Kada se raspukne, veličina kruga koji predstavlja zemlju predstavlja stanovništvo.

the size of each country bubble is the size of the population.

Sierra Leone down there, Mauritius is up there.

Sijera Leone je tu dolje. Mauricijus je gore. Mauricijus je prva zemlja

Mauritius was the first country to get away with trade barriers,

koja je ukinula granice trgovanja, te tako mogla prodavati svoj šećer.

and they could sell their sugar, they could sell their textiles,

Pod istim uslovima kao ljudi Evrope i Sjeverne Amerike su mogli prodavati svoj tekstil.

on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.

There's a huge difference [within] Africa.

Postoji velika razlika među zemljema Afrike. Gana je ovdje u sredini.

And Ghana is here in the middle.

In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.

U Sijera Leoneu, humanitarna pomoć.

Here in Uganda, development aid.

Ovdje u Ugandi, pomoć pri razvoju. Ovdje--možete ulagati, tamo -

Here, time to invest; there, you can go for a holiday.

možete otići na odmor. Ogromne varijacije postoje

There's tremendous variation within Africa,

u samoj Africi kojih često nismo ni svjesni.

which we very often make that it's equal everything.

I can split South Asia here. India's the big bubble in the middle.

Ovdje mogu podijeliti Južnu Aziju. Indija je veliki krug u sredini.

But there's a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

Ali ogromna je razlika između Šri Lanke i Afganistana.

I can split Arab states. How are they?

Mogu podijeltiti arapske zemlje. Kakvo je stanje kod njih? Ista klima, ista kultura,

Same climate, same culture, same religion -- huge difference.

ista religija. Ogromna razlika. Čak i između komšija.

Even between neighbors --

Yemen, civil war;

U Jmenu građanski rat. Ujedinjeni Arapski Emirati, novac koji je jednako i dobro potrošen,

United Arab Emirates, money, which was quite equally and well-used.

Not as the myth is.

ali mit ostaje. Mit koji uključuje svu djecu stranih radnika koji su u zemlji.

And that includes all the children of the foreign workers

who are in the country.

Podaci su ponekad bolji nego što mislite. Mnogi ljudi se žale na podatke.

Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.

There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:

Postoji moguća nesigurnost u podatke, ali ipak možemo vidjeti razliku:

Kambodža, Singapur. Razlike su mnogo veće

Cambodia, Singapore.

The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data.

nego što je slabost podataka. Istočna Evropa:

East Europe: Soviet economy for a long time,

Sovjetska ekonomija dugo vremena, ali nakon deset godina

but they come out after 10 years very, very differently.

ishod je puno, puno drukčiji. A ovdje je Latinska Amerika.

And there is Latin America.

Danas, ne morate ići na Kubu da biste našli zdravu državu u Latinskoj Americi,

Today, we don't have to go to Cuba

to find a healthy country in Latin America.

Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.

Čile će imati nižu stopu smrtnosti djece nego Kuba u samo nekoliko sljedećih godina.

Here, we have high-income countries in the OECD.

A ovdje imamo zemlje sa visokim prihodom u OECD-u.

And we get the whole pattern here of the world,

A ovdje dobijemo čitavu shemu svijeta,

which is more or less like this.

koja je manje-više ovakva. Pa ako pogledamo kako

And if we look at it, how the world looks,

svijet izgleda-- svijet se šezdesetih počinje pomjerati.

in 1960, it starts to move.

This is Mao Zedong. He brought health to China.

Ovo je Mao Cetung. On je donio zdravlje u Kinu. I onda je umro,

And then he died.

And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,

A zatim Deng Xiaoping stiže i donosi novac u Kinu, i ponovo ih vraća u kolosijek.

and brought them into the mainstream again.

And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,

Vidjeli smo kako se zemlje pomjeraju u različitim pravcima kao ova,

so it's sort of difficult to get an example country

tako da je veoma teško naći zemlju koja bi poslužila kao primjer

koji pokazuje cjelokupnu shemu svijeta.

which shows the pattern of the world.

But I would like to bring you back to about here, at 1960.

Volio bih vas dovesti do ove tačke ovdje, 1960. godine.

Volio bih da uporedim Južnu Koreju, ova ovdje, sa Brazilom,

I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one,

with Brazil, which is this one.

ovo ovdje. Ovdje nemam oznake. i volio bih još porediti Ugandu,

The label went away for me here.

And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there.

koja je ovdje. I mogu to ubrzati, ovako.

I can run it forward, like this.

Možete vidjeti kako Južna Koreja veoma, veoma brzo napreduje,

And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement,

whereas Brazil is much slower.

dok je Brazil znatno sporiji.

And if we move back again, here, and we put trails on them, like this,

Ako se vratimo nazad, ovdje, te ako im pokažemo putanju,

you can see again

opet možete vidjeti da je brzina razvoja

that the speed of development is very, very different,

veoma, veoma različita, i države se manje-više kreću

and the countries are moving more or less at the same rate

u istom omjeru kao novac i zdravlje, ali čini se da se mnogo brže pomjerate

as money and health,

but it seems you can move much faster

ako ste zdravi, a ne ako ste bogati.

if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.

And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirates.

Kako bismo vam to pokazali, pogledajmo putanju Ujedinjenih Arapskih Emirata.

They came from here, a mineral country.

Došli su odavde, iz zemlje minerala. Imaju velike rezerve nafte,

They cached all the oil; they got all the money;

imaju mnoštvo novca, ali zdravlje ne može biti kupljeno u supermarketu.

but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.

U zdravlje morate ulagati. Morate školovati djecu.

You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling.

You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population.

Morate obučavati zdravstveno osoblje. Morate educirati stanovništvo.

And Sheikh Zayed did that in a fairly good way.

Šeik Sajed je to poprilično dobro odradio.

In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.

Uprkos padu cijena nafte, doveo je zemlju do ove tačke gore.

So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,

Zbog svega ovoga imamo svijet koji ide jednakim kolosijekom,

where all countries tend to use their money

gdje sve zemlje teže da iskoriste novac

better than they used it in the past.

bolje no što su ga koristile u prošlosti. Ovakva je situacija

Now, this is, more or less, if you look at the average data of the countries --

ukoliko se gledaju prosječni podaci jedne zemlje. To izgleda ovako.

they are like this.

That's dangerous, to use average data,

Ali, veoma je opasno koristiti prosječne podatke, jer postoji ogromna razlika

because there is such a lot of difference within countries.

unutar samih granica države. Pa ako ovdje pogledate, možete vidjeti

So if I go and look here,

we can see that Uganda today is where South Korea was in 1960.

da je Uganda danas na onom mjestu gdje je bila Južna Koreja 1960. Ako podijelim Ugandu,

If I split Uganda, there's quite a difference within Uganda.

primjetit ćemo velike razliku. Ovo su raspodijeljene petine u Ugandi.

These are the quintiles of Uganda.

The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.

Najbogatijih 20 % u Ugandi su ovdje.

The poorest are down there.

Najsiromašniji su ovdje. Ako podijelim Južnu Afriku, ovako izgleda.

If I split South Africa, it's like this.

And if I go down and look at Niger,

Ako se osvrenemo na NIger, gdje je bila užasna glad,

where there was such a terrible famine [recently],

to izgleda ovako. 20% majsiromašnijih u Nigeru su ovdje,

it's like this.

The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,

and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,

a 20 % najbogatijih u Južnoj Africi su ovdje,

and yet we tend to discuss what solutions there should be in Africa.

a mi se još uvijek raspravljamo o rješenjima potrebnim za Afriku.

Everything in this world exists in Africa.

Afrika ima sve što i ostali svijet. I ne možete

And you can't discuss universal access to HIV [treatment]

raspravljati o univerzalnim rješenjima i strategijama za HIV virus za ovu petinu ovdje

for that quintile up here

with the same strategy as down here.

u poređenju sa ovom petinom dolje. Poboljšanje svijeta se mora staviti

The improvement of the world must be highly contextualized,

u isti referentni okvir, i nije toliko važno da ga imamo

and it's not relevant to have it on a regional level.

samo na regionalnom nivou. Moramo biti mnogo detaljniji.

We must be much more detailed.

Uvidjeli smo da se studenti veoma uzbude kada mogu koristiti ovo.

We find that students get very excited when they can use this.

And even more, policy makers and the corporate sectors

Te čak kako mnogi političari i korporacijski sektor žele vidjeti

would like to see how the world is changing.

kako se svijet mijenja. Ali, zašto ovo ne uzima maha?

Now, why doesn't this take place?

Why are we not using the data we have?

Zašto ne koristimo podatke koje imamo? Imamo podatke Ujedinjenih Nacija,

We have data in the United Nations, in the national statistical agencies

u nacionalnim statističkim agencijama

and in universities and other nongovernmental organizations.

i na univerzitetima i nevladinim organizacijama.

Because the data is hidden down in the databases.

Ne uzima maha jer se podaci sakrivaju u bazama podataka.

And the public is there, and the internet is there,

Imamo i javnost, imamo i internet, ali još ih nismo efektivno iskoristili.

but we have still not used it effectively.

All that information we saw changing in the world

Sve te informacije o tome kako se mijenja svijet

does not include publicly funded statistics.

ne uključuju statistike sponzorirane od strane javnosti. Postoje neke web stranice

There are some web pages like this, you know,

kao ova, znate, ali one dobiju prihoda od baze podataka,

but they take some nourishment down from the databases,

but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.

pa na podatke stavljaju cijene i glupe šifre i imaju glupu statistiku.

(Laughter)

Smijeh & Aplauz

And this won't work.

(Applause)

Ali ne ide to tako. Šta nam je potrebno? Imamo baze podataka.

So what is needed? We have the databases.

It's not a new database that you need.

Nije nova baza podataka to što nam treba. Imamo sve više i više

We have wonderful design tools and more and more are added up here.

novih alata za dizajn. Tako da smo mi započeli

So we started a nonprofit venture linking data to design,

sa neprofitnim poduhvatom koji povezuje podatke sa dizajnom,

we called "Gapminder,"

koji smo nazvali Gapminder, naziv smo uzeli iz londonskog podzemlja, u kojem koriste sličan izraz.

from the London Underground, where they warn you, "Mind the gap."

Tako da smo mislili da je Gapminder prihvatljiv naziv.

So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.

Tako smo počeli sa izradnjom programa koji bi mogao povezivati podatke na ovaj način.

And we started to write software which could link the data like this.

I nije uopšte bilo tako teško. Nekim ljudima su trebale godine, a mi smo odradili animacije.

And it wasn't that difficult.

It took some person years, and we have produced animations.

You can take a data set and put it there.

Možete uzeti čitav set podatak i staviti ih ovdje.

We are liberating UN data, some few UN organization.

Iznosimo podatke pojedinih oraganizacija UN-a.

Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world.

Neke zemlje pristaju na to da njihove baze podataka mogu putovati svijetom,

But what we really need is, of course, a search function,

ali što nam uistinu treba je, naravno, opcija pretrage,

a search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format

u kojoj možemo podatke kopirati tako da su lahki za pretragu

and get it out in the world.

i da ih takve predstavimo svijetu. I šta čujemo kao reakciju?

And what do we hear when we go around?

Uradio sam antropolšku analizu glavnih statističkih jedinica. Svi kažu:

I've done anthropology on the main statistical units.

Everyone says, "It's impossible. This can't be done.

''To je nemoguće. To se ne može uraditi. Naše informacije su tako svojstveno

Our information is so peculiar in detail,

so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.

detaljne, tako da se ne mogu pretraživati kao što se druge mogu pretraživati.

We cannot give the data free to the students,

Ne možemo tek tako dati naše podatke studentima, niti svjetskim poduzetnicima.''

free to the entrepreneurs of the world."

Ali je ovo upravo ono što bismo voljeli vidjeti, zar ne?

But this is what we would like to see, isn't it?

Podaci finansirani od strane javnosti su ovdje dolje

The publicly funded data is down here.

And we would like flowers to grow out on the net.

A mi bismo voljeli da ove informacije isplivaju na Internet.

One of the crucial points is to make them searchable,

Glavna prekretnica je da ove podatke učinimo pretraživim, a onda bi ljudi

and then people can use the different design tools to animate it there.

koristili različite dizajnerske alate kako bi ih animirali.

A ja za sve vas imam dobre vijesti. Vijesti da sadašnji upravnik

And I have pretty good news for you.

I have good news that the [current],

new head of UN statistics doesn't say it's impossible.

UN-ovog odjela za statistiku ne smatra to nemogućim.

He only says, "We can't do it."

On samo kaže: ''Mi to možemo uraditi.''

(Laughter)

Smijeh

And that's a quite clever guy, huh?

Poprilično pametan lik, zar ne?

(Laughter)

Smijeh

So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.

Možemo vidjeti dosta dešavanja na polju podataka u nadolazećim godinama.

We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.

Distribuciju prihoda ćemo moći posmatrati na jedan sasvim drugačiji način.

This is the income distribution of China, 1970.

Ovo je distribucija prihoda Kine, 1970. godine,

This is the income distribution of the United States, 1970.

zatim distribucija prihoda SAD-a, iste godine.

Almost no overlap.

Gotovo da nema preklapanja. Gotovo da nema preklapanja. I šta se dogodilo?

Almost no overlap.

And what has happened?

What has happened is this:

Ono što se desilo je činjenica da Kina raste, nije više isto,

that China is growing, it's not so equal any longer,

and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States,

i to se pojavljuje ovdje, izdižući se iznad SAD-a.

almost like a ghost, isn't it?

Skoro kao duh, zar ne?

(Laughter)

Smijeh

It's pretty scary.

To je poprilično zastrašujuće. Ali ja mislim da je veoma važno imati sve ove informacije.

(Laughter)

But I think it's very important to have all this information.

We need really to see it.

Zaista moramo to da vidimo. I umjesto da gledamo u ovo,

And instead of looking at this,

I would like to end up by showing the internet users per 1,000.

volio bi da sumiram sve posmatrajući korisnike interneta u odnosu na 1000 stanovnika.

In this software, we access about 500 variables

Pomoću ovog programa, imamo pristup za 500 varijabli iz različitih zemalja, veoma lagano.

from all the countries quite easily.

Treba malo vremena da se ovo promjeni,

It takes some time to change for this,

but on the axes, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.

ali na ovim osama ovdje, možete, i to veoma lagano, dobiti koju god varijablu želite.

A mi želimo da dobijemo pristup bazama podataka,

And the thing would be to get up the databases free,

to get them searchable, and with a second click,

da ih učinimo pretraživim, i poslije toga ih pretvorimo u

to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.

grafički format kako bi ih svi momentalno razumjeli.

Now, statisticians don't like it, because they say

Ali statističarima se to ne sviđa, jer kako kažu

that this will not show the reality;

ovo neće odslikavati realnost; moramo imati statističke, analitičke metode.

we have to have statistical, analytical methods.

Ali ovo je samo proizvođenje hipoteza.

But this is hypothesis-generating.

I end now with the world.

Završavam sa svijetom. Internet dolazi.

There, the internet is coming.

The number of internet users are going up like this.

Broj internet korisnika raste ovako. Ovo je Bruto domaći proizvod po osobi.

This is the GDP per capita.

A ovo su nove tehnologije što nam dolaze, ali ipak je čudesno kako se odlično

And it's a new technology coming in, but then amazingly,

how well it fits to the economy of the countries.

uklapaju sa privredom zemalja. Zbog toga kompjuter od 100 dolara

That's why the $100 computer will be so important.

će biti važna stvar. Sve u svemu, to je dobra namjera.

But it's a nice tendency.

It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it?

Čini se kako se svijet dovodi u jednu ravan, zar ne? Ove zemlje

These countries are lifting more than the economy,

pomjeraju standarde ne samo u privredi i bit će veoma interesantno

and it will be very interesting to follow this over the year,

pratiti ovo kroz godine, što bi ja želio da vi svi možete

as I would like you to be able to do with all the publicly funded data.

sa javno sponzorisanim podacima. Hvala vam velika.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

Aplauz