We need nuclear power to solve climate change | Joe Lassiter

Translator: Sabir Patkovic Reviewer: Ivan Stamenkovic

It's easy to forget that last night,

Lahko je zaboraviti da je prošle noći,

one billion people went to sleep without access to electricity.

milijarda ljudi otišla na spavanje bez električne energije.

One billion people.

Jedna milijarda ljudi.

Two and a half billion people did not have access to clean cooking fuels

2,5 milijarde ljudi nisu imale pristup izvorima čistog goriva za kuhanje

or clean heating fuels.

ili čistog goriva za grijanje.

Those are the problems in the developing world.

To su problem svijeta koji je u razvoju.

And it's easy for us not to be empathetic

I nama je jednostavno da ne budemo empatični

with those people who seem so distanced from us.

sa tim ljudim, koji su čini se daleko od nas.

But even in our own world, the developed world,

Ali i u našem svijetu, razvijenom svijetu

we see the tension of stagnant economies

vidimo tenzije stagnirajuće ekonomije

impacting the lives of people around us.

kako utječe na živote ljudi oko nas.

We see it in whole pieces of the economy,

Vidimo u cjelini komadiće ekonomije

where the people involved have lost hope about the future

gdje ljudi koji su uključeni izgubili nadu u budućnost

and despair about the present.

i očajavaju oko sadašnjosti.

We see that in the Brexit vote.

Vidimo to u Brexitu.

We see that in the Sanders/Trump campaigns in my own country.

Vidimo to u Sanders/Trump kampanji u mojoj državi.

But even in countries as recently turning the corner

Ali i u državama koje su nedavno počele napredovati

towards being in the developed world,

prema razvijenom svijetu,

in China,

u Kini,

we see the difficulty that President Xi has

vidimo poteškoće koje Predsjednik Xi ima

as he begins to un-employ so many people in his coal and mining industries

kada je počeo da ne zapošljava toliko ljudi u rudnicima

who see no future for themselves.

koji za sebe ne vide budućnost.

As we as a society figure out how to manage

Dok mi kao društvo ne shvatimo kako upravljati

the problems of the developed world

problemom razvijenog svijeta

and the problems of the developing world,

i problemima svijeta u razvoju,

we have to look at how we move forward

moramo gledati kako napredujemo

and manage the environmental impact of those decisions.

i kontrolisati ekološki utjecaj na te odluke.

We've been working on this problem for 25 years, since Rio,

Radili smo na ovome problemu 25 godina, od Rija

the Kyoto Protocols.

do Kyoto Protokola.

Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,

Naš zadnji korak je Pariški sporazum,

and the resulting climate agreements

i rezultirajući klimatski sporazumi

that are being ratified by nations around the world.

koji su bili ovjereni od nacija širom svijeta.

I think we can be very hopeful

Mislim da možemo biti puni nade

that those agreements, which are bottom-up agreements,

da ti dogovori, koji su razmatrani odozdo prema gore,

where nations have said what they think they can do,

gdje nacija su rekle šta misle da mogu uraditi,

are genuine and forthcoming for the vast majority of the parties.

su orginalni i predstojeći za veliku većinu stranaka.

The unfortunate thing

Nesretna stvar

is that now, as we look at the independent analyses

jeste da sad, dok gledamo nezavisnu analizu

of what those climate treaties are liable to yield,

šta ti sporazumi o klimi mogu da daju,

the magnitude of the problem before us becomes clear.

veličina problema koji je pred nama postaje jasna.

This is the United States Energy Information Agency's assessment

Ovo su procjene Energetske Informacione Agencije Sjedinjenih Država

of what will happen if the countries implement the climate commitments

šta bi se desilo kada bi države implementirale klimatske obaveze

that they've made in Paris

koje su napravile u Parizu

between now and 2040.

između danas i 2040-te.

It shows basically CO2 emissions around the world

U suštini pokazuje emisiju CO2 širom svijeta

over the next 30 years.

sljedećih 30 godina.

There are three things that you need to look at and appreciate.

Postoje tri stvari koje trebate gledati i cijeniti

One, CO2 emissions are expected to continue to grow

Prva, očekuje se da će rasti emisija CO2

for the next 30 years.

sljedećih 30 godina.

In order to control climate,

Da bi kontrolisali klimu,

CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero

emisija CO2 mora bukvalno ići na nulu

because it's the cumulative emissions that drive heating on the planet.

zato što je cjelokupna emisija ta koja pokreće zagrijavanje planete.

This should tell you that we are losing the race to fossil fuels.

Ovo bi vam trebalo reći da gubimo utrku sa fosilnim gorivima.

The second thing you should notice

Druga stvar koju trebate primjetiti

is that the bulk of the growth comes from the developing countries,

jeste da glavni dio rasta dolazi od država u razvoju

from China, from India, from the rest of the world,

od Kine, Indije, I ostatka svijeta,

which includes South Africa and Indonesia and Brazil,

što uključuje Južnu Afriku, Indoneziju i Brazil,

as most of these countries move their people

dok većina ovih država seli stanovništvo

into the lower range of lifestyles

u siromašniji način života

that we literally take for granted in the developed world.

što smo uzeli zdravo za gotovo u razvijenom svijetu.

The final thing that you should notice

Posljednja stvar koju trebate primjetiti

is that each year,

jeste da svake godine

about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting added to the planet's atmosphere,

oko 10 gigatona ugljena je dodato u planetinu atmosferu

and then diffusing into the ocean and into the land.

i onda pušteno u okean i na kopno.

That's on top of the 550 gigatons that are in place today.

To je na vrhu od 550 gigatona koje su danas na snazi.

At the end of 30 years,

Do kraja 30 godina,

we will have put 850 gigatons of carbon into the air,

imati ćemo 850 gigatona ugljena u zraku

and that probably goes a long way

i da vjerovatno ide dug put

towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase in global mean surface temperatures,

prema zatvaranju 2 - 4 °C povećanja u globalnom smislu površinske temperature,

locking in ocean acidification

zatvaranje acidifikacije okeana

and locking in sea level rise.

i zatvaranje porasta nivoa mora.

Now, this is a projection made by men

Sada, ovu projekciju je napravio čovjek

by the actions of society,

postupcima društva,

and it's ours to change, not to accept.

i naše je da mijenjano, a ne da prihvatamo.

But the magnitude of the problem is something we need to appreciate.

Ali dimenzija problema je nešto što moramo cijeniti.

Different nations make different energy choices.

Različite nacije prave različite energetske odabire.

It's a function of their natural resources.

To je funkcija, njihovih prirodnih resursa.

It's a function of their climate.

To je funkcija njihove klime.

It's a function of the development path that they've followed as a society.

To je funkcija puta razvoja koji oni prate kao društvo.

It's a function of where on the surface of the planet they are.

To je funkcija u kojoj na površini planete se nalaze

Are they where it's dark a lot of the time,

Jesu li tamo gdje je tamno većinom vremena

or are they at the mid-latitudes?

ili su u srednjim geografskim širinama?

Many, many, many things go into the choices of countries,

Mnogo,mnogo,mnogo stvari prolazi kroz izbor država,

and they each make a different choice.

i svaka pravi različite odluke.

The overwhelming thing that we need to appreciate

Ogromna stvar koju moramo cijeniti

is the choice that China has made.

jeste izbor koji je Kina napravila.

China has made the choice,

Kina je napravila odabir,

and will make the choice, to run on coal.

a i mi ćemo napraviti, koristiti ćemo ugalj.

The United States has an alternative.

Sjedinjene Države imaju alternativu.

It can run on natural gas

Može se koristiti prirodni gas

as a result of the inventions of fracking and shale gas,

kao rezultat izuma frakturiranja i plina iz škriljaca,

which we have here.

kojeg ovdje imamo.

They provide an alternative.

Obezbjedili su alternativu.

The OECD Europe has a choice.

OECD Europe ima izbor.

It has renewables that it can afford to deploy in Germany

Posjeduje obnovljive izvore koje može rasporediti po Njemačkoj

because it's rich enough to afford to do it.

zato što je dovoljno bogat da priušti to.

The French and the British show interest in nuclear power.

Francuzi i Britanci su pokazali interes za nuklearnu energiju.

Eastern Europe, still very heavily committed to natural gas and to coal,

Istočna Europa, još uvijek je teško odana prirodnom gasu i uglju,

and with natural gas that comes from Russia,

i sa prirodnim gasom koji dolazi iz Rusije,

with all of its entanglements.

sa svim njegovim zapletima.

China has many fewer choices

Kina ima mnogo manje izbora

and a much harder row to hoe.

i mnogo težu rupu iskopati.

If you look at China, and you ask yourself

Ako posmatrate Kinu, i zapitate sebe

why has coal been important to it,

zašto je ugalj važan

you have to remember what China's done.

morate se sjetiti šta je Kina uradila.

China brought people to power, not power to people.

Kina je donijela ljude do energije, a ne energiju do ljudi.

It didn't do rural electrification.

Nije urađena ruralna elektrifikacija.

It urbanized.

Urbanizovana je.

It urbanized by taking low-cost labor and low-cost energy,

Urbanizovana je koristeći jeftinu radnu snagu i jeftinu cijenu energije,

creating export industries

praveći izvozne industrije

that could fund a tremendous amount of growth.

koje bi mogle finansirati ogroman iznos rasta.

If we look at China's path,

Ako pogledamo put Kine,

all of us know that prosperity in China has dramatically increased.

svi znamo da se razvoj u Kini dramatično povečao.

In 1980, 80 percent of China's population

U 1980toj, 80% kineske populacije

lived below the extreme poverty level,

živjelo ispod granice siromaštva,

below the level of having $1.90 per person per day.

ispod granice da imaju 1.90$ po osobi po danu

By the year 2000, only 20 percent of China's population

2000-te godine, samo 20% populacije u Kini

lived below the extreme poverty level --

živjelo je ispod granice siromaštva --

a remarkable feat,

izuzetan podvig,

admittedly, with some costs in civil liberties

doduše, sa nekim cijenama civilne slobode

that would be tough to accept in the Western world.

koje bi bile teško prihvaćene u zapadnom svijetu.

But the impact of all that wealth

Ali utjecaj svog tog bogastva

allowed people to get massively better nutrition.

omogućio je ljudima da dobiju mnogo bolju ishranu.

It allowed water pipes to be placed.

Omogućio je vodu sa česme.

It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,

Omogućio je kanalizaciju,

dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,

nagli pad dijareje,

at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.

za cijenu određenog zagađenja zraka.

But in 1980, and even today,

Ali 1980-te, pa i danas,

the number one killer in China is indoor air pollution,

broj jedan ubica u Kini je zagađenje zraka u zatvorenom prostoru

because people do not have access to clean cooking and heating fuels.

zato što ljudi nemaju pristup čistom gorivu za kuhanje i grijanje

In fact, in 2040,

Zapravo, 2040-te

it's still estimated that 200 million people in China

još uvijek je procijenjeno, da 200 miliona ljudi u Kini

will not have access to clean cooking fuels.

neće imati pristup čistom gorivu za kuhanje.

They have a remarkable path to follow.

Oni su izuzetan primjer.

India also needs to meet the needs of its own people,

Indija također treba slušati potrebe svoga naroda

and it's going to do that by burning coal.

i uraditi će to, spaljivanjem ugljena.

When we look at the EIA's projections of coal burning in India,

Kada pogledamo projekcije od EIA o spaljivanju ugljena u Indiji,

India will supply nearly four times as much of its energy from coal

Indija će snabdjeti skoro četiri puta više energije od uglja

as it will from renewables.

nego što bi iz obnovljivih izvora.

It's not because they don't know the alternatives;

To nije zato što oni ne znaju alternativu;

it's because rich countries can do what they choose,

to je zato što bogate države mogu raditi šta hoće,

poor countries do what they must.

siromašne rade šta moraju.

So what can we do to stop coal's emissions in time?

Pa šta možemo učiniti da na vrijeme zaustavimo emisiju ugljena?

What can we do that changes this forecast that's in front of us?

Šta učiniti da promjenimo predviđanje koje je pred nama?

Because it's a forecast that we can change if we have the will to do it.

Zato što je predviđanje to koje možemo promjeniti ako imam volju.

First of all, we have to think about the magnitude of the problem.

Prvo, moramo razmisliti o veličini problema

Between now and 2040,

Između danas i 2040-te,

800 to 1,600 new coal plants are going to be built around the world.

800 do 1600 novih fabrika ugljena će biti izgrađeno širom svijeta

This week, between one and three one-gigawatt coal plants

Ove sedmice, između jedne i tri jedno-gigavatne fabrike ugljena

are being turned on around the world.

otvore se širom svijeta.

That's happening regardless of what we want,

To se dešava bez obzira šta mi želimo,

because the people that rule their countries,

zato što ljudi koji vladaju svojim državama

assessing the interests of their citizens,

procjenjivajući interes svojih građana

have decided it's in the interest of their citizens to do that.

su odlučili da je u interesu građana tako da urade.

And that's going to happen unless they have a better alternative.

I to će se dogoditi osim ako imaju bolju alternativu.

And every 100 of those plants will use up

I svaka 100-ta od tih fabrika će koristiti

between one percent and three percent

između jedan i tri posto

of the Earth's climate budget.

Zemljinog klimatskog budžeta.

So every day that you go home thinking that you should do something

Pa svaki dan kad ideš kući misleći da si trebao učiniti nešto

about global warming,

oko globalnog zagrijavanja

at the end of that week, remember:

na kraju sedmice, zapamti:

somebody fired up a coal plant that's going to run for 50 years

neko je potpalio fabriku ugljena koja će raditi sljedećih 50 godina

and take away your ability to change it.

i odnijeti tvoju mogućnost za promjenom

What we've forgotten is something that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,

Šta smo zaboravili je nešto što Vinod Khosla je znao govoriti

a man of Indian ethnicity but an American venture capitalist.

čovjek indijskog porijekla ali američki kapitalista.

And he said, back in the early 2000s,

Rekao je, rane 2000-te

that if you needed to get China and India off of fossil fuels,

da ako želiš skinuti Kinu i Indiju sa fosilnih goriva,

you had to create a technology that passed the "Chindia test,"

trebaš napraviti tehnologiju koja je položila "Kinindija test"

"Chindia" being the appending of the two words.

"Kinindija" sa dodavanjem dvije riječi.

It had to be first of all viable,

Kako prvo mora biti sposobna za život,

meaning that technically, they could implement it in their country,

znači tehnički, da to mogu implementirati u državi,

and that it would be accepted by the people in the country.

i da će biti prihvaćeno od strane ljudi u državi.

Two, it had to be a technology that was scalable,

Drugo, mora biti tehnologija koja je mjerljiva,

that it could deliver the same benefits

da može dostaviti iste pogodnosti

on the same timetable as fossil fuels,

na istoj vremenskoj ljestvici kao fosilna goriva,

so that they can enjoy the kind of life, again, that we take for granted.

tako da mogu ponovo uživati u životu, kojeg smo uzeli zdravo za gotovo.

And third, it had to be cost-effective

I treće, mora biti isplativo

without subsidy or without mandate.

bez subvencija ili mandata.

It had to stand on its own two feet;

Mora stajati na vlastitim nogama;

it could not be maintained for that many people

ne može se održavati za tako mnogo ljudi

if in fact, those countries had to go begging

zapravo, te države moraju moliti

or had some foreign country say, "I won't trade with you,"

ili imati stranu državu koja će reći, " Neću trgovati s tobom,"

in order to get the technology shift to occur.

da bi tehnologija napravila pomak.

If you look at the Chindia test,

Ako pogledamo Chindia test,

we simply have not come up with alternatives that meet that test.

jednostavno nismo došli do alternativa koje zadovoljavaju taj test.

That's what the EIA forecast tells us.

To je ono šta EIA predviđanja kažu nam.

China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,

Kina gradi 800 gigavatnu fabriku ugljena,

400 gigawatts of hydro,

400 gigavatnu hidrocentralu,

about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,

oko 200 gigavatnu nuklearnu,

and on an energy-equivalent basis, adjusting for intermittency,

i na energetski ekvivalentnoj osnovi, prilagođena izostajanju,

about 100 gigawatts of renewables.

oko 100 gigavata iz obnovljvih izvora.

800 gigawatts of coal.

800 gigavata ugljena.

They're doing that, knowing the costs better than any other country,

Oni rade to, znajući troškove bolje nego i jedna druga država

knowing the need better than any other country.

znajući potrebe bolje nego i jedna druga država.

But that's what they're aiming for in 2040

Ali to je na šta ciljaju 2040-te

unless we give them a better choice.

osim ako im ne dadnemo bolji izbor.

To give them a better choice,

Da bi im dali bolji izbor,

it's going to have to meet the Chindia test.

morati će zadovoljiti Chindia test.

If you look at all the alternatives that are out there,

Ako pogledaš sve alternative koje se tamo nalaze,

there are really two that come near to meeting it.

tu su dvije koje su blizu zadovoljenja.

First is this area of new nuclear that I'll talk about in just a second.

Prvo je li ovo novi nuklearni prostor o kojem sam maloprije govorio

It's a new generation of nuclear plants that are on the drawing boards

To je nova generacija nuklearnih fabrika koje su na tabli za crtanje

around the world,

oko svijeta,

and the people who are developing these say

i ljudi koji ovo razvijaju kažu

we can get them in position to demo by 2025

možemo ih imati u poziciji za probu 2025-te

and to scale by 2030, if you will just let us.

i za ocjenu 2030-te, ako nam dopustite.

The second alternative that could be there in time

Druga alternativa koja bi mogla biti tu na vrijeme

is utility-scale solar backed up with natural gas,

je komunalnih razmjera solarna dodatna pohrana prirodnog gasa

which we can use today,

koju možemo danas koristiti,

versus the batteries which are still under development.

naspram baterija koje su još uvijek u razvoju.

So what's holding new nuclear back?

Pa šta koči novu nuklearnu

Outdated regulations and yesterday's mindsets.

Zastarjeli propisi i jučerašnji mentalitet

We have not used our latest scientific thinking on radiological health

Nismo iskoristili naše zadnje naučno promišljanje o radiološkom zdravlju

to think how we communicate with the public

da razmislimo kako komuniciramo sa javnosti

and govern the testing of new nuclear reactors.

i vladamo testiranjem novih nuklearnih reaktora.

We have new scientific knowledge that we need to use

Imamo novo naučno saznanje koje moramo iskoristiti

in order to improve the way we regulate nuclear industry.

kako bi poboljšali put kojim regulišemo nuklearnu industriju

The second thing is we've got a mindset

Druga stvar je da imamo razmišljane

that it takes 25 years and 2 to 5 billion dollars

kojem je potrebno 25 godina i 2 do 5 milijarde dolara

to develop a nuclear power plant.

kako bi razvili nuklearnu fabriku.

That comes from the historical, military mindset

To dolazi od historijskog, vojnog razmišljanja

of the places nuclear power came from.

od mjesta sa kojeg je nuklearna snaga stigla.

These new nuclear ventures are saying

Ova nova nuklearnih ulaganja kažu

that they can deliver power for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;

da mogu dostaviti energiju za 5 centi po kilovat satu;

they can deliver it for 100 gigawatts a year;

mogu dostaviti 100 gigavata za godinu

they can demo it by 2025;

mogu testirati ih 2025-te;

and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,

i isporučiti na mjerenje 2030-te,

if only we give them a chance.

ako ćemo im dati šansu.

Right now, we're basically waiting for a miracle.

Upravo sada, mi u suštini čekamo čudo.

What we need is a choice.

Šta mi trebamo jeste izbor.

If they can't make it safe, if they can't make it cheap,

Ako ne mogu napraviti ih sigurne, ako ne mogu napraviti ih jeftine,

it should not be deployed.

ne bi trebale biti razvijene.

But what I want you to do is not carry an idea forward,

Ali šta ja želim od tebe, nije da nosiš ideju naprijed,

but write your leaders,

ali piši vođama,

write the head of the NGOs you support,

piši glavnom NVO kojeg podržavaš,

and tell them to give you the choice,

i reci im da ti daju izbor,

not the past.

ne prošlost.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)