We need nuclear power to solve climate change | Joe Lassiter

翻译人员: Kai Ma 校对人员: Jing Peng

It's easy to forget that last night,

我们很难意识到昨天晚上

one billion people went to sleep without access to electricity.

十亿人在没有电的条件下进入梦乡

十亿人

One billion people.

Two and a half billion people did not have access to clean cooking fuels

25亿人没有清洁的能源用来做饭

or clean heating fuels.

以及供暖

Those are the problems in the developing world.

这些都是发展中国家存在的问题

And it's easy for us not to be empathetic

同时我们也容易忽视

with those people who seem so distanced from us.

距离我们十分遥远的人们所经历的痛苦

But even in our own world, the developed world,

但是即使是在我们发达国家

we see the tension of stagnant economies

经济发展的停滞不前

impacting the lives of people around us.

也会对我们的生活产生影响

We see it in whole pieces of the economy,

在整个经济发展的进程中

where the people involved have lost hope about the future

许多时候人们会失去对未来的希望

and despair about the present.

甚至对现在感到绝望

We see that in the Brexit vote.

我们可以在英国脱欧公投中看到

We see that in the Sanders/Trump campaigns in my own country.

在桑德斯和特朗普的辩论中看到

But even in countries as recently turning the corner

即使是在最近正在转型

towards being in the developed world,

即将成为发达国家的

in China,

中国

we see the difficulty that President Xi has

习主席也处于同样的困境中

as he begins to un-employ so many people in his coal and mining industries

开始解雇煤矿行业的大量工人

who see no future for themselves.

他们知道自己的未来希望渺茫

As we as a society figure out how to manage

整个社会都在设法解决

the problems of the developed world

发达国家所存在的问题

and the problems of the developing world,

以及发展中国家存在的问题

we have to look at how we move forward

我们必须探寻一条出路

并且控制随之而来的环境上的影响

and manage the environmental impact of those decisions.

We've been working on this problem for 25 years, since Rio,

我们已经开始处理这个问题25年了 从里约

the Kyoto Protocols.

到京都议定

Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,

我们最近的一次倡导是巴黎协定

and the resulting climate agreements

各国之间就气候问题

达成了一致

that are being ratified by nations around the world.

我认为我们应该充满希望

I think we can be very hopeful

that those agreements, which are bottom-up agreements,

因为那些协定从实际出发

where nations have said what they think they can do,

参与的国家指明了自己所能做的

are genuine and forthcoming for the vast majority of the parties.

对于大多数国家来说 都是真诚而切实的

The unfortunate thing

不幸的是

is that now, as we look at the independent analyses

当我们看那些条约中

of what those climate treaties are liable to yield,

由独立研究机构提到的责任时

问题的严重性就变得明确了

the magnitude of the problem before us becomes clear.

This is the United States Energy Information Agency's assessment

美国能源信息局的调查显示出

of what will happen if the countries implement the climate commitments

如果各国遵守诺言

that they've made in Paris

那么实施条约中规定的结果如此

between now and 2040.

范围是从现在到2040年

It shows basically CO2 emissions around the world

它显示了未来30年间

over the next 30 years.

全球二氧化碳的排放量

There are three things that you need to look at and appreciate.

值得注意的有三点

首先，在未来的三十年内

One, CO2 emissions are expected to continue to grow

for the next 30 years.

二氧化碳的排放量将会不断增长

In order to control climate,

为了控制气候变暖

二氧化碳的排放量必须被消除

CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero

because it's the cumulative emissions that drive heating on the planet.

因为累积起来的二氧化碳 会不断加剧全球变暖

This should tell you that we are losing the race to fossil fuels.

这表明我们正失去与化石燃料的竞争

The second thing you should notice

值得注意的第二点是

is that the bulk of the growth comes from the developing countries,

大部分碳排放的增长 来自于发展中国家

from China, from India, from the rest of the world,

比如中国、印度 以及世界的其他地区

which includes South Africa and Indonesia and Brazil,

包括南非、印度尼西亚和巴西

大多数的发展中国家试图改变

as most of these countries move their people

into the lower range of lifestyles

人民的生活方式来减少CO2 排放量

that we literally take for granted in the developed world.

我们这些发达国家的人 可能视之为理所当然

The final thing that you should notice

最后一点是

is that each year,

每年

about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting added to the planet's atmosphere,

大约有一百亿吨的碳 被排放到大气中

and then diffusing into the ocean and into the land.

然后进入到海洋和土地中

到目前为止 已经有550千兆吨的碳被这样吸收

That's on top of the 550 gigatons that are in place today.

在30年后

At the end of 30 years,

we will have put 850 gigatons of carbon into the air,

我们将向空气中排放850千兆吨的碳

也许我们距离

and that probably goes a long way

towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase in global mean surface temperatures,

全球平均气温上升2到4度

海水酸化

locking in ocean acidification

and locking in sea level rise.

海平面上升还有很远

Now, this is a projection made by men

这个预测是由人类自己

by the actions of society,

和整个社会做出的

and it's ours to change, not to accept.

我们应该改变，而不是接受

But the magnitude of the problem is something we need to appreciate.

但这个问题需要我们充分的理解

Different nations make different energy choices.

不同的国家在能源上 会做出不同的选择

这与各国的自然资源储量

It's a function of their natural resources.

It's a function of their climate.

气候状况

It's a function of the development path that they've followed as a society.

社会发展的道路

It's a function of where on the surface of the planet they are.

在全球的地理位置 都有着密切联系

Are they where it's dark a lot of the time,

他们是处于长期黑夜的地区

or are they at the mid-latitudes?

或是中纬度地区

Many, many, many things go into the choices of countries,

很多很多的因素 都会影响一个国家所作出的决定

and they each make a different choice.

每一个国家就会有不同的选择

The overwhelming thing that we need to appreciate

我们还需要理解 一个十分重要的话题

就是中国所作出的选择

is the choice that China has made.

China has made the choice,

中国已经决定

and will make the choice, to run on coal.

而且会坚持依靠煤炭作为能源

The United States has an alternative.

美国有另一种选择

It can run on natural gas

可以依靠天然气作为能源

as a result of the inventions of fracking and shale gas,

由于水力压裂的发明 和页岩气的储备

也就是目前所使用的方法

which we have here.

They provide an alternative.

它们提供了一种新的可能

The OECD Europe has a choice.

欧盟也有自己的选择

It has renewables that it can afford to deploy in Germany

他们可以承担得起 从德国运输的可再生能源

because it's rich enough to afford to do it.

这是欧盟经济发展的结果

The French and the British show interest in nuclear power.

法国和英国对核能源产生兴趣

Eastern Europe, still very heavily committed to natural gas and to coal,

东欧国家依旧坚持 以天然气和煤炭作为能源

and with natural gas that comes from Russia,

使用从俄罗斯输送来的天然气

这其中有着十分复杂的联系

with all of its entanglements.

China has many fewer choices

中国的选择就少得多

而且举步维艰

and a much harder row to hoe.

If you look at China, and you ask yourself

试想中国

why has coal been important to it,

为什么煤炭对中国如此重要呢？

you have to remember what China's done.

你必须明白中国做了什么

China brought people to power, not power to people.

中国使人们趋向财富 而不是授予人们权利

It didn't do rural electrification.

中国没有实行农村电气化

It urbanized.

而是采用了城市化

It urbanized by taking low-cost labor and low-cost energy,

通过更多廉价的劳动力和能源 来实现城市化

creating export industries

带动出口产业的发展

这些使得中国经济飞速发展

that could fund a tremendous amount of growth.

If we look at China's path,

如果我们回顾中国的发展历程

all of us know that prosperity in China has dramatically increased.

我们都知道中国的经济水平 已经有了大幅度的提升

In 1980, 80 percent of China's population

1980年，中国80%的人口

lived below the extreme poverty level,

处于极度贫困的水平之下

below the level of having $1.90 per person per day.

低于每人每天1.9美元的水平

By the year 2000, only 20 percent of China's population

到了2000年， 中国只有20%的人口

仍处于极度贫困的水平以下

lived below the extreme poverty level --

a remarkable feat,

实在是一大壮举

admittedly, with some costs in civil liberties

不可否认，其中有失去公民自由的代价

that would be tough to accept in the Western world.

这也是许多西方国家难以接受的

But the impact of all that wealth

但是收入增长

allowed people to get massively better nutrition.

改善了人民的健康状况

It allowed water pipes to be placed.

修建了自来水管

It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,

修建了下水管道

dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,

大大降低了痢疾的发病率

at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.

这些进步以室外空气污染作为代价

但在1980年，即使是现在

But in 1980, and even today,

the number one killer in China is indoor air pollution,

室内空气污染 才是中国健康的头号杀手

because people do not have access to clean cooking and heating fuels.

因为人们没有清洁的能源 可供做饭和取暖

事实上，直到2040年

In fact, in 2040,

it's still estimated that 200 million people in China

中国大约仍有2亿人

will not have access to clean cooking fuels.

无法使用清洁的能源做饭

他们的发展道路十分特殊

They have a remarkable path to follow.

India also needs to meet the needs of its own people,

印度同样需要满足人民的需求

and it's going to do that by burning coal.

解决办法则是燃烧煤炭

When we look at the EIA's projections of coal burning in India,

当我们看到能源信息局 对印度煤炭燃烧的预测时

India will supply nearly four times as much of its energy from coal

印度依靠煤炭产生的能量

as it will from renewables.

将会是可再生能源的四倍

It's not because they don't know the alternatives;

这并不是由于 他们不知道有其他选择

it's because rich countries can do what they choose,

而是因为只有富裕的国家 才能随意做出选择

而贫困的国家只能尽其所能

poor countries do what they must.

So what can we do to stop coal's emissions in time?

那么我们怎样才能 及时解决碳排放问题呢？

What can we do that changes this forecast that's in front of us?

对于这样的预测 我们又有怎样的对策呢？

Because it's a forecast that we can change if we have the will to do it.

因为只要我们有足够的意志 我们就能改变这种状况

首先 我们需要考虑问题的严重性

First of all, we have to think about the magnitude of the problem.

Between now and 2040,

从现在到2040年

全球将会建造800到1600个煤电厂

800 to 1,600 new coal plants are going to be built around the world.

这个星期，世界范围内将会有

This week, between one and three one-gigawatt coal plants

are being turned on around the world.

一到三个一千兆瓦的煤电厂投入使用

That's happening regardless of what we want,

无论我们愿不愿意 这些都会发生

because the people that rule their countries,

因为那些管理自己国家的人

assessing the interests of their citizens,

通过评估公民的意愿

have decided it's in the interest of their citizens to do that.

已经决定了 这就是符合公民意愿的做法

And that's going to happen unless they have a better alternative.

他们将不会做出改变 除非有更好的选择

And every 100 of those plants will use up

这其中每100个煤电厂

between one percent and three percent

都会用掉1-3%的

of the Earth's climate budget.

对未来气候做出的预算

So every day that you go home thinking that you should do something

所以每天当你回家

about global warming,

想着自己应该为全球变暖 做些什么的时候

at the end of that week, remember:

过了一周，记住：

somebody fired up a coal plant that's going to run for 50 years

一座可以使用五十年的 煤电厂已经被建造

and take away your ability to change it.

并且夺走了 你想要改善全球气候的能力

What we've forgotten is something that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,

我们忘记了维诺德·柯斯拉

a man of Indian ethnicity but an American venture capitalist.

一位印度裔美国风险投资家所说的

And he said, back in the early 2000s,

回溯到二十一世纪早期

that if you needed to get China and India off of fossil fuels,

如果你想让中国和印度摆脱化石燃料

you had to create a technology that passed the "Chindia test,"

你必须创造出一项科技 能够通过“中印测试”

"Chindia" being the appending of the two words.

“中印”是中国和印度的合称

It had to be first of all viable,

首先 它必须是可行的

meaning that technically, they could implement it in their country,

严格意义上来说 这意味着它在两国是可实施的

and that it would be accepted by the people in the country.

并且能被两国人民所接受

Two, it had to be a technology that was scalable,

其次 它必须是可扩展的

that it could deliver the same benefits

也就是和化石燃料相比

on the same timetable as fossil fuels,

在同一时间内能产生同等收益

so that they can enjoy the kind of life, again, that we take for granted.

他们就能以此享受 我们认为是理所当然的生活

And third, it had to be cost-effective

再次 它必须是合算的

without subsidy or without mandate.

不需要任何补助或是命令

It had to stand on its own two feet;

它必须能独立自主地存在

不能受限于一些人或国家

it could not be maintained for that many people

比如那些国家必须通过乞求

if in fact, those countries had to go begging

或是其他的国家威胁与之断交

or had some foreign country say, "I won't trade with you,"

in order to get the technology shift to occur.

来获得技术的转让

此时再回顾“中印测试”

If you look at the Chindia test,

we simply have not come up with alternatives that meet that test.

我们还没有任何办法能通过它

That's what the EIA forecast tells us.

这就是能源信息局预测的真正含义

China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,

中国正在建造800千兆瓦的煤电站

400 gigawatts of hydro,

400千兆瓦的水电站

about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,

还有大约200千兆瓦的核电站

and on an energy-equivalent basis, adjusting for intermittency,

在调整期间 并且在能源等效的基础上

about 100 gigawatts of renewables.

大约100千兆瓦的可再生能源电站

800 gigawatts of coal.

800千兆瓦的煤电站

They're doing that, knowing the costs better than any other country,

他们这么做的同时 比其他任何一个国家都清楚自己的代价

knowing the need better than any other country.

也比其他任何一个国家 都清楚自己的需求

But that's what they're aiming for in 2040

但这就是他们对2040年定下的目标

除非我们给予他们更好的选择

unless we give them a better choice.

To give them a better choice,

为了给出这样的选择

it's going to have to meet the Chindia test.

它必须通过“中印测试”

If you look at all the alternatives that are out there,

如果你观察这里的每一种可能性

there are really two that come near to meeting it.

有两项可能通过测试

First is this area of new nuclear that I'll talk about in just a second.

第一个是我即将要说的核能源

它来自新一代的核电站

It's a new generation of nuclear plants that are on the drawing boards

around the world,

也是全球规划中的一部分

and the people who are developing these say

核电站的研究者称

在2025年以前 这些核电站将会开始试用

we can get them in position to demo by 2025

and to scale by 2030, if you will just let us.

如果条件允许 2030年将会大批量运行

The second alternative that could be there in time

第二种可能

is utility-scale solar backed up with natural gas,

公用事业规模太阳能 与天然气相结合

which we can use today,

也就是我们目前正在使用的

versus the batteries which are still under development.

相对于正在研发的太阳能电池

So what's holding new nuclear back?

又是什么延缓了 核能源的开发进度呢？

Outdated regulations and yesterday's mindsets.

过时的管理和陈腐的观念

We have not used our latest scientific thinking on radiological health

我们没有用最新的放射学思想

to think how we communicate with the public

与公众进行交流

and govern the testing of new nuclear reactors.

并管理新的核反应堆实验

We have new scientific knowledge that we need to use

我们有需要用到的新科学知识

in order to improve the way we regulate nuclear industry.

来帮助我们治理好核工业

The second thing is we've got a mindset

第二点是我们还在用旧的观念

that it takes 25 years and 2 to 5 billion dollars

认为建造一座核电站需要25年

以及20至50亿美元

to develop a nuclear power plant.

That comes from the historical, military mindset

这些都是老一套的东西

of the places nuclear power came from.

来自核能源的军事发源地

These new nuclear ventures are saying

这些新的核电企业称

that they can deliver power for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;

他们能以每千瓦时5美分 的价格输送电力

they can deliver it for 100 gigawatts a year;

每年生产100千兆瓦的电力

they can demo it by 2025;

2025年开始试用

2030年开始大规模运行

and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,

if only we give them a chance.

只要我们给他们一个机会

目前我们基本是在等待一个奇迹

Right now, we're basically waiting for a miracle.

What we need is a choice.

我们需要作出选择

If they can't make it safe, if they can't make it cheap,

如果他们不能做到安全和廉价

it should not be deployed.

核电站就不应该被建成

But what I want you to do is not carry an idea forward,

我想让你做的 不是只有这个想法

but write your leaders,

而是向你的领导提议

write the head of the NGOs you support,

向你所支持的非政府组织写信

and tell them to give you the choice,

让他们给你这个选择

not the past.

而不是停留在过去

Thank you very much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

（掌声）