We need nuclear power to solve climate change | Joe Lassiter

譯者: 易帆 余 審譯者: jonathan oleg

It's easy to forget that last night,

有件事很容易被人們遺忘──

one billion people went to sleep without access to electricity.

就是昨晚仍有 10 億人口 在就寢前沒有電力可以使用。

One billion people.

十億人口。

Two and a half billion people did not have access to clean cooking fuels

有 25 億人口沒有乾淨的烹飪燃料

or clean heating fuels.

或乾淨的暖氣燃料可用。

Those are the problems in the developing world.

這些是開發中國家的問題。

And it's easy for us not to be empathetic

而我們似乎也不太同情那些

with those people who seem so distanced from us.

離我們這麼遙遠的人們。

But even in our own world, the developed world,

但即使是在我們的世界 ──已開發的世界，

we see the tension of stagnant economies

我們仍會看到因為經濟不景氣

impacting the lives of people around us.

對我們周遭人生活所造成的影響。

We see it in whole pieces of the economy,

我們可以看到他們受各種景氣的影響，

where the people involved have lost hope about the future

在這樣的背景下， 人們對未來不抱希望，

and despair about the present.

對目前現狀也相當失望。

We see that in the Brexit vote.

我們在英國脫歐看到了這種現象。

We see that in the Sanders/Trump campaigns in my own country.

我們在自己國家的總統大選 也看到了這種現象。

But even in countries as recently turning the corner

但即使是最近正要從發展中國家

towards being in the developed world,

轉變成已開發國家的──

in China,

中國，

we see the difficulty that President Xi has

我們也看到習主席也相當為難，

as he begins to un-employ so many people in his coal and mining industries

他也開始在煤礦及 採礦產業解雇了很多

who see no future for themselves.

看不到自己未來的礦工。

As we as a society figure out how to manage

即使我們的社會已經知道如何管理

the problems of the developed world

發達國家的問題

and the problems of the developing world,

以及發展中國家的問題，

we have to look at how we move forward

我們仍得仔細想想要如何更進一步的

and manage the environmental impact of those decisions.

管理這些決定所帶給環境的影響。

We've been working on this problem for 25 years, since Rio,

自從里約的地球高峰會， 及《京都議定書》後，

the Kyoto Protocols.

我們已經在這個議題上 努力了 25 年。

Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,

我們最近的活動是在 巴黎的全球氣候大會協議，

and the resulting climate agreements

最後的協議書

that are being ratified by nations around the world.

已經被世界各國所簽署認可。

I think we can be very hopeful

我想，我們都很期待

that those agreements, which are bottom-up agreements,

這些協議，這些由下而上

where nations have said what they think they can do,

由各國政府所承諾的協議，

are genuine and forthcoming for the vast majority of the parties.

能真正的實現並為所有人帶來利益。

The unfortunate thing

不幸的是，

is that now, as we look at the independent analyses

當我們仔細觀察獨立分析報告裡面

of what those climate treaties are liable to yield,

這些氣候協定有哪些盲點時，

the magnitude of the problem before us becomes clear.

一大堆問題就會一一浮現眼前。

This is the United States Energy Information Agency's assessment

這是美國能源資訊 評估委員會的評估報告，

of what will happen if the countries implement the climate commitments

報告中說明了如果各國履行了 在巴黎協議做出的氣候承諾，

that they've made in Paris

between now and 2040.

從現在起到 2040 年， 會有甚麼事發生。

It shows basically CO2 emissions around the world

這份報告基本上告訴了我們，

未來 30 年全球的碳排狀況。

over the next 30 years.

There are three things that you need to look at and appreciate.

有三件事，各位要特別注意：

One, CO2 emissions are expected to continue to grow

第一，未來三十年，

碳排預計仍會持續增長。

for the next 30 years.

In order to control climate,

為了要控制氣候，

CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero

碳排幾乎必須要達到「零排放」，

because it's the cumulative emissions that drive heating on the planet.

因為二氧化碳會積累， 它主導了地球的溫度。

This should tell you that we are losing the race to fossil fuels.

這說明了，我們會輸給石化燃料。

The second thing you should notice

第二，各位要明白：

is that the bulk of the growth comes from the developing countries,

主要的增長來源是來自開發中國家，

from China, from India, from the rest of the world,

像是，中國、印度，還有其它國家，

which includes South Africa and Indonesia and Brazil,

包括南非、印尼、巴西，

as most of these countries move their people

因為大部分這些國家想把他們的人民

into the lower range of lifestyles

帶往在發達國家的我們 視為理所當然的生活型態。

that we literally take for granted in the developed world.

The final thing that you should notice

最後一件各位必須注意的是：

is that each year,

我們每一年，

about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting added to the planet's atmosphere,

大約有 100 億噸的碳 會排入地球的大氣層中，

and then diffusing into the ocean and into the land.

之後散布到海洋及大地裡。

That's on top of the 550 gigatons that are in place today.

這些會附加到目前存在地球 5500 億噸的碳存量上。

At the end of 30 years,

30 年後，

we will have put 850 gigatons of carbon into the air,

我們的空氣中將有 8500 億噸的碳，

and that probably goes a long way

所以要把地球表面的上升溫度

towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase in global mean surface temperatures,

控制在 2~4 度 C 內， 那可能比登天還難，

locking in ocean acidification

還有控制海洋酸化、

and locking in sea level rise.

控制海平面上升亦是百般困難。

Now, this is a projection made by men

這是人類造成的結果、

by the actions of society,

社會造成的結果、

and it's ours to change, not to accept.

我們必須改變，不能接受。

But the magnitude of the problem is something we need to appreciate.

但我們還有很多問題要釐清。

Different nations make different energy choices.

不同的國家有不同的能源選擇。

It's a function of their natural resources.

取決於他們的天然資源的功能，

It's a function of their climate.

取決於氣候的功能。

It's a function of the development path that they've followed as a society.

這是他們社會通往 發展道路上的方式。

It's a function of where on the surface of the planet they are.

這條方程式，取決於他們位於 地球表面的哪一個位置。

Are they where it's dark a lot of the time,

他們是否長時間處於黑暗狀態

or are they at the mid-latitudes?

或是他們位於中緯度？

Many, many, many things go into the choices of countries,

有很多方式可以讓各國選擇，

and they each make a different choice.

而每個國家都有不同的選擇。

The overwhelming thing that we need to appreciate

有件擋不住的事，我們需要了解，

is the choice that China has made.

那就是中國所做出的選擇。

China has made the choice,

中國已經做出選擇，

and will make the choice, to run on coal.

他們將選擇繼續燒煤。

The United States has an alternative.

美國自己有替代方案，

It can run on natural gas

可以選擇天然氣，

as a result of the inventions of fracking and shale gas,

因為我們有水力壓裂技術

及頁岩氣的探勘技術。

which we have here.

They provide an alternative.

它們提供了替代方案。

The OECD Europe has a choice.

歐洲的經濟合作發展組織 也做了選擇。

It has renewables that it can afford to deploy in Germany

德國選擇再生能源，

because it's rich enough to afford to do it.

因為他們有錢可以支付做這件事。

The French and the British show interest in nuclear power.

法國及英國對核能發電很有興趣。

Eastern Europe, still very heavily committed to natural gas and to coal,

東歐對天然氣及煤礦仍相當依賴，

and with natural gas that comes from Russia,

提到天然氣，就會想到俄羅斯，

with all of its entanglements.

它跟周遭國家一直糾纏不清。

China has many fewer choices

中國的選擇比較少，

and a much harder row to hoe.

而且困難重重。

If you look at China, and you ask yourself

如果你仔細觀察中國，你也許會問，

why has coal been important to it,

為什麼煤礦對中國這麼重要？

you have to remember what China's done.

你必須回想中國的發展軌跡。

China brought people to power, not power to people.

中國帶給人民的是權力， 而不是電力。

It didn't do rural electrification.

他們不發展農村電力。

It urbanized.

他們全力發展城市化。

It urbanized by taking low-cost labor and low-cost energy,

低成本的勞力及低成本的能源， 促成了都市化的發展，

creating export industries

造成出口產業的

that could fund a tremendous amount of growth.

大幅度成長。

If we look at China's path,

如果各位觀察中國的發展軌跡，

all of us know that prosperity in China has dramatically increased.

大家都知道，中國的繁榮 成長地相當快速。

In 1980, 80 percent of China's population

在 1980 年代， 有將近 80% 的中國人

lived below the extreme poverty level,

生活在極度貧窮線以下。

below the level of having $1.90 per person per day.

平均每人每天賺的 竟低於 1.9 美金的水準。

By the year 2000, only 20 percent of China's population

但到了 2000 年， 只剩下 20% 的中國人

lived below the extreme poverty level --

生活在極度貧窮線之下──

a remarkable feat,

相當了不起的政績，

admittedly, with some costs in civil liberties

誠然，這是犧牲了 一些人民的自由換來的，

that would be tough to accept in the Western world.

這在西方世界裡是不可能被接受的。

But the impact of all that wealth

但這樣的財富增長

allowed people to get massively better nutrition.

讓人民大量獲得了更好的營養。

It allowed water pipes to be placed.

地下水管得以建設、

It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,

衛生下水道得以建設、

dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,

大量減少了腹瀉的疾病，

at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.

而這些卻是用空氣汙染換來的。

But in 1980, and even today,

但在 1980 年代，甚至到目前為止，

the number one killer in China is indoor air pollution,

中國的頭號殺手， 竟是室內的空氣汙染，

because people do not have access to clean cooking and heating fuels.

因為人民沒有乾淨的 烹飪及暖氣燃料可用。

In fact, in 2040,

事實上，在 2040 年，

it's still estimated that 200 million people in China

預估仍有二億的中國人口

will not have access to clean cooking fuels.

沒有乾淨的烹飪燃料可用。

They have a remarkable path to follow.

他們仍有相當艱辛的一段路要走。

India also needs to meet the needs of its own people,

印度也需要滿足人民的需求，

and it's going to do that by burning coal.

他們也準備用燃煤的方式來進行。

When we look at the EIA's projections of coal burning in India,

當我們仔細觀察印度燃煤的 環境影響評估，就會發現

India will supply nearly four times as much of its energy from coal

印度未來對燃煤的需求

是再生能源的四倍。

as it will from renewables.

It's not because they don't know the alternatives;

並不是因為他們不知道 替代能源方案；

it's because rich countries can do what they choose,

是因為富裕國家可以自由選擇，

poor countries do what they must.

而貧窮國家只能被迫選擇。

So what can we do to stop coal's emissions in time?

所以，我們要如何及時的 停止燃煤的排放？

What can we do that changes this forecast that's in front of us?

我們有沒有辦法可以改善 眼前的預測結果？

Because it's a forecast that we can change if we have the will to do it.

因為只要我們有意願改變， 我們一定辦的到。

First of all, we have to think about the magnitude of the problem.

首先，我們必須從大方向來思考。

Between now and 2040,

從現在開始到 2040 年，

800 to 1,600 new coal plants are going to be built around the world.

全世界即將有 800~1600 座 燃煤發電廠被建造出來。

This week, between one and three one-gigawatt coal plants

光這個禮拜，世界上就有 1~3 座

裝置容量一吉瓦的 燃煤發電廠開始運轉。

are being turned on around the world.

That's happening regardless of what we want,

不管我們想不想， 這件事就是會發生，

because the people that rule their countries,

因為為了人民著想，

assessing the interests of their citizens,

當權者在權衡利益之後，

have decided it's in the interest of their citizens to do that.

就已經決定要怎麼做了。

And that's going to happen unless they have a better alternative.

除非有更好的替代方案， 不然事情擋都擋不住。

And every 100 of those plants will use up

而每 100 座燃煤發電廠

between one percent and three percent

將會耗損 1~3% 的

of the Earth's climate budget.

地球氣候容忍量。

So every day that you go home thinking that you should do something

所以當你每天回家思考

如何在全球暖化議題上有所貢獻時，

about global warming,

at the end of that week, remember:

記得，在每周結束前：

somebody fired up a coal plant that's going to run for 50 years

已經又有人要開啟壹座 運行 50 年的燃煤發電站，

and take away your ability to change it.

而這些人就是奪走你 想改變這一切能力的人。

What we've forgotten is something that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,

我們可能已經忘記， 維諾德·柯斯拉曾說過的，

a man of Indian ethnicity but an American venture capitalist.

他是印度裔，但他是一位 美國籍的風險投資家，

And he said, back in the early 2000s,

他說，回想 2000 年初期，

that if you needed to get China and India off of fossil fuels,

如果你想要讓中國和 印度不使用石化燃料，

you had to create a technology that passed the "Chindia test,"

那你得創造出一種可以通過 「Chindia 測試」的科技，

"Chindia" being the appending of the two words.

Chindia 是中國和印度的縮寫。

It had to be first of all viable,

這是他們的首要考量，

meaning that technically, they could implement it in their country,

意思就是，這項技術， 可以運用在他們的國家，

and that it would be accepted by the people in the country.

且可以被他們的人民接受。

Two, it had to be a technology that was scalable,

第二，這項技術必須能被規模化，

that it could deliver the same benefits

它必須與石化燃料有相同的好處，

on the same timetable as fossil fuels,

能及時的傳送所需的能量，

so that they can enjoy the kind of life, again, that we take for granted.

這樣他們才能享受那樣的生活，

我再說一遍， 我們認為這是理所當然的。

And third, it had to be cost-effective

第三，它必須夠便宜，

without subsidy or without mandate.

不用接受補助或強制執行。

It had to stand on its own two feet;

必須自給自足；

it could not be maintained for that many people

它供養不了那麼多人，

if in fact, those countries had to go begging

如果他們的國家得求助別人，

or had some foreign country say, "I won't trade with you,"

或者哪一天被其他國家說， 「我不跟你交易了」，

in order to get the technology shift to occur.

為了就是讓技術轉移能發生。

If you look at the Chindia test,

如果我們仔細觀察 Chindia 測試，

we simply have not come up with alternatives that meet that test.

我們根本找不到符合的可替代方案。

That's what the EIA forecast tells us.

這是環境引評估報告中告訴我們的。

China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,

中國正在建造 800 吉瓦的燃煤發電廠，

400 gigawatts of hydro,

400 吉瓦的水力發電廠，

about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,

200 吉瓦的核能發電廠，

and on an energy-equivalent basis, adjusting for intermittency,

在能量相等的基礎上， 因應發電間歇不連續，

about 100 gigawatts of renewables.

大約還需要 100 吉瓦的再生能源。

800 gigawatts of coal.

800 吉瓦的燃媒能源。

They're doing that, knowing the costs better than any other country,

這樣做的原因是因為他們 比其他國家更了解費用的實情，

knowing the need better than any other country.

比其他國家更清楚知道他們的需求。

But that's what they're aiming for in 2040

但這就是他們 2040 年的目標，

unless we give them a better choice.

除非我們能給他們一個更好的選擇。

To give them a better choice,

要給他們更好的選擇，

it's going to have to meet the Chindia test.

還必須符合 Chindia 測試。

If you look at all the alternatives that are out there,

如果仔細看一下現有的替代方案，

there are really two that come near to meeting it.

真的只有 2 個可以符合。

First is this area of new nuclear that I'll talk about in just a second.

第一個是新核能技術領域， 我稍微談一談。

It's a new generation of nuclear plants that are on the drawing boards

它是新一代的核能廠，

設計規劃目前正在全世界進行，

around the world,

and the people who are developing these say

而建造這些技術的人說，

we can get them in position to demo by 2025

我們可以在 2025 年建造展示機，

and to scale by 2030, if you will just let us.

如果你們願意讓我們做的話， 2030 年前可以大規模建置。

The second alternative that could be there in time

第二個替代方案或許能及時趕上，

is utility-scale solar backed up with natural gas,

就是用大型地面太陽能發電站 搭配天然氣做後盾，

which we can use today,

其實我們今天就可以用，

versus the batteries which are still under development.

而不是用目前仍在發展的蓄電池。

So what's holding new nuclear back?

那麼，是甚麼阻礙了 新核能技術的發展？

Outdated regulations and yesterday's mindsets.

過時的法令與老舊的想法。

We have not used our latest scientific thinking on radiological health

我們尚未運用最新的科技 解決放射性的健康問題

to think how we communicate with the public

以及要如何與大眾溝通

and govern the testing of new nuclear reactors.

並管理新核能反應爐的測試能力。

We have new scientific knowledge that we need to use

我們有新的科技知識，需要被使用

in order to improve the way we regulate nuclear industry.

才能改進核能產業的規範。

The second thing is we've got a mindset

第二件事，就是我們有個心態，

that it takes 25 years and 2 to 5 billion dollars

需要花 25 年，20~50 億美金

to develop a nuclear power plant.

來發展新的核能電廠技術。

That comes from the historical, military mindset

這是來自歷史、軍事方面的心態，

of the places nuclear power came from.

這些是核能技術的知識來源。

These new nuclear ventures are saying

這些新的核能探險家告訴我們

that they can deliver power for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;

他們只要花 5 分錢就能產出 1 千瓦小時的能量；

they can deliver it for 100 gigawatts a year;

一年可以產出 100 吉瓦的能量；

they can demo it by 2025;

他們可以在 2025 年做展示；

and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,

2030 年規模量產，

if only we give them a chance.

只要我們願意給他們機會。

Right now, we're basically waiting for a miracle.

現在，我們基本上在等一個奇蹟，

What we need is a choice.

但我們需要的只是個選擇。

If they can't make it safe, if they can't make it cheap,

如果他們不能令它安全， 如果他們不能讓它便宜，

it should not be deployed.

那就不能蓋。

But what I want you to do is not carry an idea forward,

但我希望各位要做的是， 不是聽聽就好，

but write your leaders,

而是要寫信給你們的領導人，

write the head of the NGOs you support,

寫信給你支持的非政府組織的老大，

and tell them to give you the choice,

告訴他們，給你選擇，

不要給你老舊的思維，

not the past.

Thank you very much.

非常感謝各位。

(Applause)

（掌聲）