Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen

2,158,080 views ・ 2007-01-14

TED


請雙擊下方英文字幕播放視頻。

00:25
About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development
0
25626
4355
大約10年前,我開始
給瑞典大學生講授全球發展
00:30
to Swedish undergraduate students.
1
30005
2146
00:32
That was after having spent about 20 years,
2
32175
2881
之前的20年我一直在非洲研究飢餓問題
00:35
together with African institutions,
3
35080
1877
00:36
studying hunger in Africa.
4
36981
1598
所以大家以為我對世界有些了解
00:38
So I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.
5
38603
3998
在我們的Karolinska醫學院
00:42
And I started, in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,
6
42625
3351
00:46
an undergraduate course called Global Health.
7
46000
3530
我開設了一門本科生課程“全球健康”
00:49
But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.
8
49554
2822
剛開課的時候我還有些緊張
00:52
I thought, these students coming to us actually have the highest grade
9
52400
3334
因為來聽課的都是瑞典大學的優等生
00:55
you can get in the Swedish college system,
10
55758
2023
他們或許早已了解我準備教的內容
00:57
so I thought, maybe they know everything I'm going to teach them about.
11
57805
3365
於是在第一堂課裡,我作了一個小測試
01:01
So I did a pretest when they came.
12
61194
1997
01:03
And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:
13
63215
3493
其中有一道題讓我受益匪淺
01:06
"Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"
14
66732
4269
下列5對國家中,哪一個的兒童死亡率高於另一個?
我所選擇的配對國家都是
01:11
And I put them together so that in each pair of countries,
15
71890
3070
01:14
one has twice the child mortality of the other.
16
74984
3445
一個的兒童死亡率是另一個的兩倍
01:18
And this means that it's much bigger, the difference,
17
78453
4245
數據本身的不確定性可以忽略不計
01:22
than the uncertainty of the data.
18
82722
1802
01:24
I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey,
19
84548
2311
今天我不會拿這來考大家
01:26
which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.
20
86883
4327
土耳其,波蘭,俄羅斯,巴基斯坦和南非
01:31
And these were the results of the Swedish students.
21
91234
2422
這是瑞典學生的測驗結果
01:33
I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow.
22
93680
3170
讓我高興的是
01:36
And I got happy, of course -- a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.
23
96874
3985
5道題平均答對的只有1.8題
01:40
That means there was a place for a professor of international health
24
100883
3211
我這個教授還有這門課
01:44
and for my course.
25
104118
1166
因此都有了存在的必要
01:45
(Laughter)
26
105308
1033
01:46
But one late night, when I was compiling the report,
27
106365
4039
但後來有天深夜,當我寫總結報告的時候
01:50
I really realized my discovery.
28
110428
2566
我突然有了新的發現
01:53
I have shown that Swedish top students know, statistically,
29
113018
4925
瑞典大學的優等生們對世界的了解
01:57
significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.
30
117967
3009
竟然還不如黑猩猩
02:01
(Laughter)
31
121000
1976
(笑聲)
02:03
Because the chimpanzee would score half right
32
123000
3459
因為黑猩猩們至少能蒙對一半
02:06
if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.
33
126483
2630
在兩個選項旁邊各放一根香蕉,就有一半的機率答對。
02:09
They would be right half of the cases. But the students are not there.
34
129137
3422
這些優等生們卻做不到。這不是由於知識缺乏
02:12
The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.
35
132583
4215
而是他們先入為主的錯誤理念
02:16
I did also an unethical study
36
136822
2737
我還把這個測試拿去給卡羅林斯卡學院的教授們做
02:19
of the professors of the Karolinska Institute,
37
139583
2527
(笑聲)
02:22
which hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,
38
142134
2541
他們每年負責頒發諾貝爾醫學獎
02:24
and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.
39
144699
2296
結果教授們和黑猩猩半斤八兩
(笑聲)
02:27
(Laughter)
40
147019
2435
02:29
This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,
41
149478
4183
我意識到很有必要交流一下這個問題
02:33
because the data of what's happening in the world
42
153685
2904
因為多數人並不知道
02:36
and the child health of every country
43
156613
1961
世界各國的兒童健康的改善
02:38
is very well aware.
44
158598
1337
02:39
So we did this software, which displays it like this.
45
159959
2767
我們作了一個軟件,每一個小球代表一個國家
02:42
Every bubble here is a country.
46
162750
1958
02:44
This country over here is China.
47
164732
4989
這個是中國,這個是印度
02:49
This is India.
48
169745
1163
02:50
The size of the bubble is the population,
49
170932
2247
小球的尺寸代表該國的人口,X軸是生育率
02:53
and on this axis here, I put fertility rate.
50
173203
3556
02:56
Because my students, what they said
51
176783
2443
我曾問過學生們
02:59
when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,
52
179250
2559
如果讓你們來審視這個世界
03:01
"What do you really think about the world?"
53
181833
2723
你們的真實想法是什麼
其實這些教科書上都是丁丁歷險記(帶有殖民主義思想的漫畫)的人物
03:04
Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.
54
184580
3269
03:07
(Laughter)
55
187873
1045
(笑聲)
03:08
And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.'
56
188942
2515
學生們回答 世界是由“我們和他們”組成的
03:11
And 'we' is the Western world and 'them' is the Third World."
57
191481
3453
“我們”指西方世界 “他們”指第三世界
我又問“什麼是西方世界?”
03:15
"And what do you mean with 'Western world?'" I said.
58
195381
2510
03:17
"Well, that's long life and small family.
59
197915
1977
“西方世界壽命長且家庭小;第三世界壽命短而家庭大。”
03:19
And 'Third World' is short life and large family."
60
199916
2388
那麼一起來看。X軸是生育率,每個婦女的育兒數
03:23
So this is what I could display here.
61
203058
2385
03:25
I put fertility rate here --
62
205467
1657
03:27
number of children per woman: one, two, three, four,
63
207148
3138
從每人1,2,3,4胎,到8胎
03:30
up to about eight children per woman.
64
210310
2031
03:32
We have very good data since 1962, 1960, about,
65
212365
3980
我們有1962年之後的各國家庭大小的可靠數據
03:36
on the size of families in all countries.
66
216369
2033
03:38
The error margin is narrow.
67
218426
1375
數據誤差相當小。 Y軸是平均壽命
03:39
Here, I put life expectancy at birth,
68
219825
2008
03:41
from 30 years in some countries, up to about 70 years.
69
221857
3467
從30歲到70歲不等
03:45
And in 1962, there was really a group of countries here
70
225348
3403
1962年的時候的確有一群國家在上面
03:48
that were industrialized countries,
71
228775
1857
這些是發達國家,他們家庭小,壽命長
03:50
and they had small families and long lives.
72
230656
3094
03:53
And these were the developing countries.
73
233774
2100
而這些則是發展中國家
03:55
They had large families and they had relatively short lives.
74
235898
3041
他們家庭大,壽命也相對短些
03:58
Now, what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.
75
238963
3681
從1962年到今天 世界有什麼變化嗎?
04:02
Are the students right? It's still two types of countries?
76
242668
2937
學生們正確嗎?國家還是分為2類嗎?
04:05
Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?
77
245629
3736
或者發展中國家的家庭變小 (這些小球)移動到了左邊?
04:09
Or have they got longer lives and live up there?
78
249389
2298
或者發展中國家人們的壽命變長 (這些小球)移動到了上面?
04:11
Let's see. We start the world, eh?
79
251711
1841
我們一起看看,這些數據都來自於聯合國
04:13
This is all UN statistics that have been available.
80
253576
2486
大家看到沒有?
04:16
Here we go. Can you see there?
81
256086
1501
04:17
It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there.
82
257611
3287
這個是中國,他們在往上移動,健康狀況不斷改善
04:20
All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.
83
260922
3645
這些綠色的拉丁美洲國家 正朝向小家庭的方向移動
這些黃色的小球是阿拉伯國家
04:24
Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,
84
264591
2422
壽命在變長但家庭規模不變
04:27
and they get longer life, but not larger families.
85
267037
3901
04:30
The Africans are the green here. They still remain here.
86
270962
2622
非洲國家是下面的綠球,他們一直在下面
04:33
This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast.
87
273608
2641
這個是印度,印度尼西亞的移動速度非常快
04:36
In the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries.
88
276273
4106
(笑聲)
80年代的時候,孟加拉國仍然和非洲國家在一起
04:40
But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s --
89
280403
3228
但是80年代的奇蹟發生在孟加拉國
04:43
the imams start to promote family planning,
90
283655
2413
媽媽們開始宣傳和普及計劃生育
04:46
and they move up into that corner.
91
286092
1747
他們向左上角移動。90年代恐怖的艾滋病流行
04:47
And in the '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic
92
287863
3298
04:51
that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries.
93
291185
3509
導致非洲國家的平均壽命縮短
04:54
And the rest of them all move up into the corner,
94
294718
3648
而其他國家都向左上角移動
04:58
where we have long lives and small family,
95
298390
2386
大家都有了長壽命和小家庭,而世界也煥然一新了
05:00
and we have a completely new world.
96
300800
2114
05:02
(Applause)
97
302938
3214
(掌聲)
05:13
(Applause ends)
98
313561
1097
05:15
Let me make a comparison directly
99
315567
1813
現在我們對比一下美國和越南
05:17
between the United States of America and Vietnam.
100
317404
3014
05:20
1964:
101
320442
1199
1964年的美國家庭小壽命長
05:22
America had small families and long life;
102
322538
2611
05:25
Vietnam had large families and short lives.
103
325173
3349
越南的家庭大而壽命短。這是後來的變化
05:28
And this is what happens.
104
328546
1283
05:29
The data during the war indicate that even with all the death,
105
329853
5341
越戰時期的數據顯示,儘管戰爭造成傷亡
05:35
there was an improvement of life expectancy.
106
335218
2229
越南人的平均壽命仍有提高
05:37
By the end of the year, family planning started in Vietnam,
107
337471
2784
70年代末期,越南的計劃生育減小了家庭規模
05:40
and they went for smaller families.
108
340279
1694
05:41
And the United States up there is getting longer life,
109
341997
2569
美國人的平均壽命也在延長
05:44
keeping family size.
110
344590
1188
而家庭規模不變
05:45
And in the '80s now, they give up Communist planning
111
345802
3605
到了90年代,越南由計劃經濟轉為市場經濟
05:49
and they go for market economy,
112
349431
1507
05:50
and it moves faster even than social life.
113
350962
2010
其經濟發展的速度超過了社會的發展
05:52
And today, we have in Vietnam
114
352996
2336
今天(2003)越南人的平均壽命和家庭規模
05:55
the same life expectancy and the same family size
115
355356
4802
已經和越戰結束時(1974)的美國一樣
06:00
here in Vietnam, 2003,
116
360182
2763
06:02
as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.
117
362969
4067
如果沒有看到這些數據的話
06:07
I think we all, if we don't look at the data,
118
367513
3296
06:10
we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia,
119
370833
3221
我們會低估了亞洲的巨大變化
06:14
which was in social change before we saw the economic change.
120
374078
4691
這些超前於經濟發展的社會變革
06:18
So let's move over to another way here
121
378793
2367
下面我們換個視角
06:21
in which we could display the distribution in the world
122
381184
4487
X軸顯示了全世界的收入分佈
06:25
of income.
123
385695
1280
06:26
This is the world distribution of income of people.
124
386999
3696
每天收入1美元,10美元和100美元
06:31
One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.
125
391499
3846
富與窮之間的鴻溝幾乎消失了,簡直是個奇蹟
06:36
There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.
126
396071
3412
06:39
There's a little hump here.
127
399507
2015
這裡還有一個很小的峰,但總體上是均數分佈的
06:42
But there are people all the way.
128
402195
1640
06:43
And if we look where the income ends up,
129
403859
4386
我們看看收入的分配情況
06:48
this is 100 percent of the world's annual income.
130
408269
4195
這代表全世界人民每年的全部收入
06:52
And the richest 20 percent,
131
412488
2465
06:54
they take out of that about 74 percent.
132
414977
4119
最富有的20%那部分人得到了全部收入的74%
06:59
And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.
133
419120
4916
最貧窮的20%那部分人只得到2%
07:04
And this shows that the concept of developing countries
134
424060
2755
07:06
is extremely doubtful.
135
426839
1567
可見發展中國家的理念極其的不確切
07:08
We think about aid,
136
428430
1881
07:10
like these people here giving aid to these people here.
137
430335
3613
我們總以為最富的人應該給最窮的人提供援助
07:13
But in the middle, we have most of the world population,
138
433972
3120
其實中間這部分才是世界人口的主體,而他們僅得到全部收入的24%
07:17
and they have now 24 percent of the income.
139
437116
2609
07:19
We heard it in other forms.
140
439749
1656
這是個老問題了,中間這些人是誰?
07:21
And who are these?
141
441429
2701
他們在哪些國家?先看非洲
07:24
Where are the different countries?
142
444154
2220
07:26
I can show you Africa.
143
446398
1546
07:27
This is Africa.
144
447968
1591
非洲佔世界人口的十分之一,多數是窮人
07:30
Ten percent of the world population,
145
450078
1763
07:31
most in poverty.
146
451865
1166
這個代表富裕的經合組織成員國,聯合國俱樂部的會員
07:33
This is OECD -- the rich countries, the country club of the UN.
147
453055
4375
07:37
And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.
148
457454
5416
他們在這邊,很小一部分與非洲重疊
07:42
And this is Latin America.
149
462894
1348
這是拉丁美洲,他們可以代表全世界
07:44
It has everything on this earth, from the poorest to the richest
150
464266
3355
從最貧窮到最富有的人都在那裡
07:47
in Latin America.
151
467645
1373
再往上是東歐,東亞還有南亞
07:49
And on top of that, we can put East Europe,
152
469042
3107
07:52
we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.
153
472173
3175
過去是什麼樣子的呢?
07:55
And what did it look like if we go back in time,
154
475372
3130
07:58
to about 1970?
155
478526
2093
如果我們回到1970年,這裡有一個明顯的峰
08:00
Then, there was more of a hump.
156
480643
2522
這些絕對貧困的人大多數在亞洲
08:04
And most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.
157
484242
3759
那時世界的問題就在於亞洲的貧窮
08:08
The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.
158
488025
2947
08:10
And if I now let the world move forward,
159
490996
3118
08:14
you will see that while population increases,
160
494138
2612
後來隨著人口的增長
08:16
there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty,
161
496774
3313
數以億計的亞洲人擺脫了貧困
08:20
and some others getting into poverty,
162
500111
1965
另外一些人卻陷入貧窮,這就是今天的世界
08:22
and this is the pattern we have today.
163
502100
1901
而這是世界銀行對未來最樂觀的預測
08:24
And the best projection from the World Bank
164
504025
2071
08:26
is that this will happen,
165
506120
1914
世界再也不是貧富懸殊的,大多數人擁有中等的收入
08:28
and we will not have a divided world.
166
508058
1848
08:29
We'll have most people in the middle.
167
509930
1895
08:31
Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,
168
511849
2027
當然這是指數冪分佈的圖
08:33
but our concept of economy is growth with percent.
169
513900
3397
因為經濟的增長是用百分比來衡量的
08:37
We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.
170
517321
5285
我們用百分比的變化來評估經濟增長
08:42
If I change this and take GDP per capita instead of family income,
171
522630
4824
下面把X軸改為人均國內生產總值
08:47
and I turn these individual data
172
527478
3771
個人的數據轉為各大洲的數據
08:51
into regional data of gross domestic product,
173
531273
3276
08:54
and I take the regions down here,
174
534573
1888
球的大小代表人口的多少
08:56
the size of the bubble is still the population.
175
536485
2239
08:58
And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,
176
538748
3198
這個是經合組織國家,這是撒哈拉以南非洲
09:01
and we take off the Arab states there,
177
541970
2241
我們把阿拉伯國家
09:04
coming both from Africa and from Asia,
178
544235
2218
從非洲和亞洲單獨分出來
09:06
and we put them separately,
179
546477
1666
09:08
and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,
180
548167
5097
然後把X軸延伸一下,再加上一個新的維度
09:13
by adding the social values there, child survival.
181
553288
3349
一個有社會價值的參數:兒童生存率
09:16
Now I have money on that axis,
182
556661
1728
X軸代表經濟,Y軸顯示兒童存活的比率
09:18
and I have the possibility of children to survive there.
183
558413
2743
09:21
In some countries, 99.7% of children survive to five years of age;
184
561180
4257
一些國家的99.7%的小孩可以活到5歲以上
09:25
others, only 70.
185
565461
1725
另一些國家只有70%。很明顯可以看到
09:27
And here, it seems, there is a gap between OECD,
186
567210
3268
經合組織成員國和拉丁美洲,東歐,東亞
09:30
Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,
187
570502
3254
09:33
Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
188
573780
3885
阿拉伯國家,南亞和非洲撒哈拉以南地區
09:37
The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.
189
577689
4908
兒童生存率和經濟之間聯繫非常緊密
09:42
But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.
190
582621
3296
下面把撒哈拉以南非洲地區分解成各個國家
09:45
Health is there and better health is up there.
191
585941
4924
09:50
I can go here, and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.
192
590889
4462
分佈靠上邊的國家擁有更高的健康水平
09:55
And when it bursts,
193
595375
1202
撒哈拉以南的非洲各國是如此分佈的,球的尺寸代表該國人口
09:56
the size of each country bubble is the size of the population.
194
596601
3646
10:00
Sierra Leone down there, Mauritius is up there.
195
600271
2540
塞拉里昂在下邊,毛里求斯在上邊
10:02
Mauritius was the first country to get away with trade barriers,
196
602835
3656
毛里求斯是第一個消除了貿易壁壘的國家
10:06
and they could sell their sugar, they could sell their textiles,
197
606515
3525
他們的蔗糖和紡織品的貿易協定與歐洲和北美一樣
10:10
on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.
198
610064
3714
10:13
There's a huge difference [within] Africa.
199
613802
2132
但是非洲內部的差異非常巨大。加納在中部
10:15
And Ghana is here in the middle.
200
615958
1868
10:17
In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.
201
617850
2592
塞拉里昂需要人道主義援助
10:20
Here in Uganda, development aid.
202
620466
3310
烏干達則需要發展援助,在加納可以進行投資了
10:23
Here, time to invest; there, you can go for a holiday.
203
623800
3295
毛里求斯則可以去度假。非洲內部的差異之大確實很驚人
10:27
There's tremendous variation within Africa,
204
627119
2742
而我們卻總以為非洲國家都差不多
10:29
which we very often make that it's equal everything.
205
629885
3091
10:33
I can split South Asia here. India's the big bubble in the middle.
206
633000
4239
下面分解南亞各國,印度是中間的藍色大球
10:37
But there's a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.
207
637263
4440
而斯里蘭卡和阿富汗有著巨大差異
10:41
I can split Arab states. How are they?
208
641727
2135
把阿拉伯世界分解來看,儘管是相同的氣候,相同的文化
10:43
Same climate, same culture, same religion -- huge difference.
209
643886
4132
相同的宗教,卻有巨大的差異
10:48
Even between neighbors --
210
648042
1222
10:49
Yemen, civil war;
211
649288
1245
也門在打內戰,鄰國阿聯酋卻躺在錢堆裡
10:50
United Arab Emirates, money, which was quite equally and well-used.
212
650557
4166
10:54
Not as the myth is.
213
654747
1782
而且(阿聯酋的)兒童健康數據包含了所有的外籍勞工
10:56
And that includes all the children of the foreign workers
214
656553
4109
11:00
who are in the country.
215
660686
1574
大家總說數據不准確數據,其實比我們想像的好很多
11:02
Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.
216
662284
3692
11:06
There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:
217
666000
3143
數據是有誤差
但柬埔寨和新加坡的差距肯定遠大於數據的誤差
11:09
Cambodia, Singapore.
218
669167
1362
11:10
The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data.
219
670553
2971
再看東歐
11:13
East Europe: Soviet economy for a long time,
220
673548
4647
在蘇聯經濟模式下發展了多年,但在過去10年
11:18
but they come out after 10 years very, very differently.
221
678219
3212
卻經歷了巨大的變化
11:21
And there is Latin America.
222
681455
2733
當今的拉丁美洲,古巴再也不是唯一的健康國家了
11:24
Today, we don't have to go to Cuba
223
684212
1646
11:25
to find a healthy country in Latin America.
224
685882
2028
11:27
Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.
225
687934
4634
幾年後,智利的兒童死亡率將低於古巴
11:32
Here, we have high-income countries in the OECD.
226
692592
3055
這些是經合組織成員國
11:35
And we get the whole pattern here of the world,
227
695671
3792
這裡顯示的就是我們的世界
11:39
which is more or less like this.
228
699487
2151
大概就是這樣的情形。如果我們回到過去
11:41
And if we look at it, how the world looks,
229
701662
3940
看看世界是怎樣的。從1960年開始
11:46
in 1960, it starts to move.
230
706658
3318
11:50
This is Mao Zedong. He brought health to China.
231
710000
2632
1960年(中國有)毛澤東,他給中國帶來了健康
11:52
And then he died.
232
712656
1166
11:53
And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,
233
713846
2612
他去世後鄧小平給中國帶來了金錢,同時把中國帶回到世界的主流當中
11:56
and brought them into the mainstream again.
234
716482
2054
11:58
And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,
235
718560
4158
其他國家的移動方向也不盡相同
12:02
so it's sort of difficult to get an example country
236
722742
5905
很難找出哪個國家
能代表全世界的發展模式
12:08
which shows the pattern of the world.
237
728671
2145
12:10
But I would like to bring you back to about here, at 1960.
238
730840
6854
我們回到1960年做個比較
先選中韓國(左邊的小黃球);巴西(右邊的黃綠色大球)
12:18
I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one,
239
738083
6991
12:25
with Brazil, which is this one.
240
745098
3358
烏干達(Y軸上面的小紅球)
12:29
The label went away for me here.
241
749154
1782
12:30
And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there.
242
750960
2925
隨著時間的推移,我們看到
12:34
I can run it forward, like this.
243
754699
3183
韓國的發展速度非常非常快
12:39
And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement,
244
759748
6996
12:46
whereas Brazil is much slower.
245
766768
2585
巴西就慢得多
12:49
And if we move back again, here, and we put trails on them, like this,
246
769377
6144
我們再回到過去,給每個球畫出運動的軌跡
12:55
you can see again
247
775545
2403
可以看到,發展速度的差距非常大
12:57
that the speed of development is very, very different,
248
777972
3332
雖然各國的經濟和健康發展的軌跡大同小異
13:01
and the countries are moving more or less at the same rate
249
781328
5760
但是健康水平起點較高的國家
13:07
as money and health,
250
787112
1427
13:08
but it seems you can move much faster
251
788563
1929
發展速度遠超過經濟水平起點高的
13:10
if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.
252
790516
2918
13:14
And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirates.
253
794000
4158
為了說明這一點,我們看看阿聯酋
13:18
They came from here, a mineral country.
254
798182
2674
他們從這裡出發,一個資源型國家
13:20
They cached all the oil; they got all the money;
255
800880
2467
他們靠石油大把賺錢,但健康絕不是超市裡的貨物
13:23
but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.
256
803371
2436
需要衛生方面的投資,需要提高兒童的教育水平
13:26
You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling.
257
806516
3147
13:29
You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population.
258
809687
3190
需要培訓衛生工作者,還要教育民眾
13:32
And Sheikh Zayed did that in a fairly good way.
259
812901
2356
Sheikh Sayed 幹的非常漂亮
13:35
In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.
260
815281
3963
儘管油價下跌了,他仍改善了阿聯酋的健康
13:39
So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,
261
819268
3708
這裡我們可以看到世界發展的主流
13:43
where all countries tend to use their money
262
823000
2527
各國對資金的分配和使用
13:45
better than they used it in the past.
263
825551
2295
都比過去合理的多
13:49
Now, this is, more or less, if you look at the average data of the countries --
264
829269
6978
這里大家看到各國的數據基本上都是平均數
13:56
they are like this.
265
836271
1194
13:57
That's dangerous, to use average data,
266
837489
3409
但是用平均數可能會很危險 因為國家內部也存在很大的差異
14:00
because there is such a lot of difference within countries.
267
840922
3845
我們看這裡
14:04
So if I go and look here,
268
844791
2494
14:07
we can see that Uganda today is where South Korea was in 1960.
269
847309
6545
今天的烏干達和1960年的韓國差不多
14:13
If I split Uganda, there's quite a difference within Uganda.
270
853878
3788
如果把烏干達分解開,可以看到內部的明顯差異
14:17
These are the quintiles of Uganda.
271
857690
1988
14:19
The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.
272
859702
2180
烏干達最富有的20%在右邊
14:21
The poorest are down there.
273
861906
1471
最貧窮的在左下邊。如果把南非分解開
14:23
If I split South Africa, it's like this.
274
863401
2831
14:26
And if I go down and look at Niger,
275
866256
3009
尼日在下邊,他們剛遭受一場恐怖的飢荒
14:29
where there was such a terrible famine [recently],
276
869289
3493
最貧窮的20%的尼日人在最左邊
14:32
it's like this.
277
872806
1151
14:33
The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,
278
873981
2757
14:36
and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,
279
876762
2769
而最富有的20%的南非人在最右邊
14:39
and yet we tend to discuss what solutions there should be in Africa.
280
879555
4421
今天我們仍然在討論什麼方案能解決非洲的問題
14:44
Everything in this world exists in Africa.
281
884000
2567
世界上所有的問題非洲都有
14:46
And you can't discuss universal access to HIV [treatment]
282
886591
3275
我們不可能討論出一套通用方案,既能解決這些地方的艾滋病問題
14:49
for that quintile up here
283
889890
1919
14:51
with the same strategy as down here.
284
891833
2625
同時也適用於這些地方
14:54
The improvement of the world must be highly contextualized,
285
894482
3706
世界的發展一定要因地制宜來分析
14:58
and it's not relevant to have it on a regional level.
286
898212
3653
僅從各大洲的水平上來分析是不夠的
15:01
We must be much more detailed.
287
901889
1530
當學生們接觸到這個軟件的時候他們都非常興奮
15:04
We find that students get very excited when they can use this.
288
904070
3326
15:07
And even more, policy makers and the corporate sectors
289
907420
3618
此外,政策制定者,各企業部門都會想知道世界的變化
15:11
would like to see how the world is changing.
290
911062
3661
但為什麼大家仍然不知道(世界的變化)
15:14
Now, why doesn't this take place?
291
914747
1875
15:16
Why are we not using the data we have?
292
916646
2303
為什麼我們無法使用已知的數據呢
15:18
We have data in the United Nations, in the national statistical agencies
293
918973
3810
我們的聯合國,國家統計部門
15:22
and in universities and other nongovernmental organizations.
294
922807
3169
學院還有非政府組織都擁有數據
15:26
Because the data is hidden down in the databases.
295
926000
2737
但數據被隱藏在底層的數據庫裡
15:28
And the public is there, and the internet is there,
296
928761
2530
而公眾在上面(太陽),互聯網(地平線)並未得到有效的使用
15:31
but we have still not used it effectively.
297
931315
2160
15:33
All that information we saw changing in the world
298
933499
2675
之前我們看到的關於世界變化的信息
15:36
does not include publicly funded statistics.
299
936198
2941
並不包括公眾資助的統計數據
15:39
There are some web pages like this, you know,
300
939163
2371
的確有一些網站依靠數據庫的營養而存在著
15:41
but they take some nourishment down from the databases,
301
941558
4703
15:46
but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.
302
946285
4972
但這是要收費的,還有愚蠢的密碼和討厭的統計表格
15:51
(Laughter)
303
951281
1108
(笑聲,掌聲)
15:52
And this won't work.
304
952413
1422
15:53
(Applause)
305
953859
2556
這個是行不通的。我們需要什麼?
15:56
So what is needed? We have the databases.
306
956439
2422
15:58
It's not a new database that you need.
307
958885
1867
數據庫是現成的,不需要新的數據庫
16:00
We have wonderful design tools and more and more are added up here.
308
960776
3805
我們有很好的視覺軟件,還將有更多的問世
16:04
So we started a nonprofit venture linking data to design,
309
964605
6130
於是我們成立了一個非營利機構
16:10
we called "Gapminder,"
310
970759
1156
我們稱之為“數據與圖樣的聯結” - Gapminder
16:11
from the London Underground, where they warn you, "Mind the gap."
311
971939
3097
靈感來自倫敦地鐵(他們提醒乘客“小心列車與站台間的縫隙”)
16:15
So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.
312
975060
1959
而且我們製作了一個軟件,把數據和圖樣聯結起來
16:17
And we started to write software which could link the data like this.
313
977043
4181
這個並不難,需要幾個人花幾年時間
16:21
And it wasn't that difficult.
314
981248
1547
16:22
It took some person years, and we have produced animations.
315
982819
3723
16:26
You can take a data set and put it there.
316
986566
2233
建立數據庫後大家就能看到動畫
16:28
We are liberating UN data, some few UN organization.
317
988823
4476
我們正嘗試解放聯合國的數據庫
16:33
Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world.
318
993323
4278
少數聯合國機構和幾個國家已經開放了數據庫
16:37
But what we really need is, of course, a search function,
319
997625
3245
但我們最需要的是數據搜索引擎
16:40
a search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format
320
1000894
4502
依靠搜索引擎,我們先把原始數據複製成可搜索的格式
16:45
and get it out in the world.
321
1005420
1518
再把數據發佈到全世界。外界對這個設想的反應如何呢?
16:46
And what do we hear when we go around?
322
1006962
2165
我嘗試跟幾個大型統計機構交涉
16:49
I've done anthropology on the main statistical units.
323
1009151
3118
16:52
Everyone says, "It's impossible. This can't be done.
324
1012293
3009
所有人都說,這是不可能的,“這行不通,我們的信息很獨特,
16:55
Our information is so peculiar in detail,
325
1015326
2510
16:57
so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.
326
1017860
3104
不可能像其它數據那樣檢索的出來
17:00
We cannot give the data free to the students,
327
1020988
2355
我們也不能免費把數據開放,給全世界的學生們和企業部門使用。 ”
17:03
free to the entrepreneurs of the world."
328
1023367
2126
但這正是我們期望看到的,不是嗎?
17:06
But this is what we would like to see, isn't it?
329
1026256
2346
下邊是公眾資助採集的數據
17:09
The publicly funded data is down here.
330
1029175
2424
17:11
And we would like flowers to grow out on the net.
331
1031623
3035
我們希望互聯網上長出美麗的花朵
17:14
One of the crucial points is to make them searchable,
332
1034682
3270
關鍵的一步,是讓這些數據可被搜索到
17:17
and then people can use the different design tools to animate it there.
333
1037976
4287
並藉助軟件實現動畫的演示
我有個很好的消息要告訴大家
17:22
And I have pretty good news for you.
334
1042287
2294
17:24
I have good news that the [current],
335
1044605
2194
17:26
new head of UN statistics doesn't say it's impossible.
336
1046823
3486
新上任的聯合國統計部門的領導並沒有說這是不可能的
17:30
He only says, "We can't do it."
337
1050333
1856
他只說“我們不能這麼做。”
17:32
(Laughter)
338
1052772
3532
(笑聲)
17:36
And that's a quite clever guy, huh?
339
1056328
1883
他很聰明吧
17:38
(Laughter)
340
1058235
1849
(笑聲)
17:40
So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.
341
1060108
4365
未來幾年中我們將會看到數據庫的變化
17:44
We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.
342
1064497
4376
我們會用全新的視角來看收入的分配
17:48
This is the income distribution of China, 1970.
343
1068897
5079
這是1970年中國的收入分配
17:54
This is the income distribution of the United States, 1970.
344
1074000
4796
這是1970年美國的收入分配
17:58
Almost no overlap.
345
1078820
1851
幾乎沒有重疊,後來呢?
18:00
Almost no overlap.
346
1080695
1411
18:02
And what has happened?
347
1082130
1716
18:03
What has happened is this:
348
1083870
1481
中國在增長,再也不像以前那樣平等了
18:05
that China is growing, it's not so equal any longer,
349
1085375
2972
18:08
and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States,
350
1088371
3971
它出現在右邊,俯視著美國
18:12
almost like a ghost, isn't it?
351
1092366
2292
是不是像個鬼一樣
18:14
(Laughter)
352
1094682
1294
(笑聲)
18:16
It's pretty scary.
353
1096000
1587
很嚇人吧,我認為這些信息很重要
18:17
(Laughter)
354
1097611
2261
18:22
But I think it's very important to have all this information.
355
1102762
3910
18:26
We need really to see it.
356
1106696
2730
大家很有必要看到這些
18:29
And instead of looking at this,
357
1109450
2883
18:32
I would like to end up by showing the internet users per 1,000.
358
1112357
5383
另外我最後要給大家展示,每千人中的網民數量
18:37
In this software, we access about 500 variables
359
1117764
2924
這個軟件能讓我們很容易的看到全球各國的近500個參數
18:40
from all the countries quite easily.
360
1120712
2267
通過點擊坐標軸
18:43
It takes some time to change for this,
361
1123003
3134
18:46
but on the axes, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.
362
1126161
5818
你能輕易改變參數的設定
我們的初衷是,數據免費下載且易於查找
18:52
And the thing would be to get up the databases free,
363
1132003
4383
18:56
to get them searchable, and with a second click,
364
1136410
2809
然後再點一下鼠標,數據就成為圖表的形式
18:59
to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.
365
1139243
5056
那樣大家就可以立刻看明白這些數據了
19:04
Now, statisticians don't like it, because they say
366
1144323
3426
統計學家們不喜歡這樣子
19:07
that this will not show the reality;
367
1147773
6917
他們認為這不能準確地反映事實,傳統的統計和分析方法是不能取代的
19:14
we have to have statistical, analytical methods.
368
1154714
2288
但數據動畫可以幫助提出假說
19:17
But this is hypothesis-generating.
369
1157026
1950
19:19
I end now with the world.
370
1159000
1905
最後我們看一下當今的互聯網世界
19:22
There, the internet is coming.
371
1162021
1485
19:23
The number of internet users are going up like this.
372
1163530
2483
網民數量不斷向上攀升,(X軸是)人均國民生產總值
19:26
This is the GDP per capita.
373
1166037
2111
互聯網是一項新技術,但令人驚訝的是
19:28
And it's a new technology coming in, but then amazingly,
374
1168172
3500
19:31
how well it fits to the economy of the countries.
375
1171696
4027
它的普及和國家的經濟水平極其一致
19:35
That's why the $100 computer will be so important.
376
1175747
2992
這也解釋了100美元電腦的重要性,但這是很好的趨勢
19:38
But it's a nice tendency.
377
1178763
1405
19:40
It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it?
378
1180192
2771
世界各國的差距將會縮小,不是嗎
19:42
These countries are lifting more than the economy,
379
1182987
2538
這些國家的互聯網普及速度超過了經濟的發展速度
19:45
and it will be very interesting to follow this over the year,
380
1185549
2956
我也希望大家都可以自由使用公眾資助採集的數據
19:48
as I would like you to be able to do with all the publicly funded data.
381
1188529
3650
非常感謝!
19:52
Thank you very much.
382
1192203
1182
19:53
(Applause)
383
1193409
3000
www.gapminder.org
關於本網站

本網站將向您介紹對學習英語有用的 YouTube 視頻。 您將看到來自世界各地的一流教師教授的英語課程。 雙擊每個視頻頁面上顯示的英文字幕,從那裡播放視頻。 字幕與視頻播放同步滾動。 如果您有任何意見或要求,請使用此聯繫表與我們聯繫。

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7