Hans Rosling: Debunking third-world myths with the best stats you've ever seen

Prevoditelj: Davorin Jelačić Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

About 10 years ago, I took on the task to teach global development

Prije 10 godina, počeo sam švedske dodiplomce

podučavati globalnom razvoju. To je bilo nakon što sam

to Swedish undergraduate students.

That was after having spent about 20 years,

oko 20 godina proveo proučavajući glad u Africi s afričkim institucijama,

together with African institutions,

studying hunger in Africa.

pa se od mene nekako očekivalo da znam ponešto o svijetu.

So I was sort of expected to know a little about the world.

Na našem medicinskom sveučilištu, Karolinska Institute, pokrenuo sam

And I started, in our medical university, Karolinska Institute,

an undergraduate course called Global Health.

dodiplomski kolegij nazvan Globalno zdravlje. Ali kad dobijete

But when you get that opportunity, you get a little nervous.

takvu priliku, postanete malo nervozni. Mislio sam, studenti

I thought, these students coming to us actually have the highest grade

koji k nama dođu imaju najviše ocjene koje možete dobiti

you can get in the Swedish college system,

u švedskom školskom sustavu - pa možda znaju sve

so I thought, maybe they know everything I'm going to teach them about.

o onome o čemu ću ih podučavati. Pa sam im dao preliminarni test.

So I did a pretest when they came.

And one of the questions from which I learned a lot was this one:

Jedno od pitanja na kojemu sam mnogo naučio bilo je ovo:

"Which country has the highest child mortality of these five pairs?"

"Koja zemlja ima najvišu stopu dječje smrtnosti od ovih pet parova?"

I tako sam ih spojio, da u svakom paru država

And I put them together so that in each pair of countries,

one has twice the child mortality of the other.

jedan član ima dvostruko veću dječju smrtnost od drugog. To je značilo

And this means that it's much bigger, the difference,

da je razlika mnogo veća od netočnosti u podacima.

than the uncertainty of the data.

I won't put you at a test here, but it's Turkey,

Vas ovdje neću izložiti testu, ali riječ je o Turskoj

which is highest there, Poland, Russia, Pakistan and South Africa.

koja je najveća ovdje, pa Poljska, Rusija, Pakistan i Južnoafrička republika.

And these were the results of the Swedish students.

A ovo su bili rezultati švedskih studenata. Uradio sam sve tako da sam dobio

I did it so I got the confidence interval, which is pretty narrow.

interval sigurnosti koji je prilično uzak, i bio sam sretan,

And I got happy, of course -- a 1.8 right answer out of five possible.

naravno: 1,8 točnih odgovora od pet mogućih. To znači

That means there was a place for a professor of international health

da ima mjesta za profesora međunarodnog zdravlja -

and for my course.

(Smijeh) i za moj kolegij.

(Laughter)

But one late night, when I was compiling the report,

No kasno jedne noći, dok sam sastavljao izvješće,

I really realized my discovery.

doista sam shvatio svoje nalaze. Pokazao sam

I have shown that Swedish top students know, statistically,

da najbolji švedski studenti o svijetu

significantly less about the world than the chimpanzees.

znaju statistički značajno manje nego čimpanze.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Because the chimpanzee would score half right

Jer bi čimpanze pogodile pola odgovora da sam im dao

if I gave them two bananas with Sri Lanka and Turkey.

dvije banane sa Šri Lankom i Turskom. Bile bi u pravu u pola slučajeva.

They would be right half of the cases. But the students are not there.

Ali studenti nisu. Za mene problem nije bilo neznanje.

The problem for me was not ignorance; it was preconceived ideas.

Bile su to ranije usvojene ideje.

I did also an unethical study

Također sam neetički provjerio i profesore na Karolinska Institute

of the professors of the Karolinska Institute,

(Smijeh)

which hands out the Nobel Prize in Medicine,

-- koji dodjeljuje Nobelovu nagradu za medicinu,

and they are on par with the chimpanzee there.

i oni su bili u rangu sa čimpanzama.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

This is where I realized that there was really a need to communicate,

Tada sam shvatio da zaista postoji potreba za komunikacijom,

because the data of what's happening in the world

jer su podaci o tome što se događa u svijetu

and the child health of every country

i o zdravlju djece u svakoj zemlji dobro poznati.

is very well aware.

So we did this software, which displays it like this.

Napravili smo program koji podatke prikazuje ovako: svaki balon je jedna zemlja.

Every bubble here is a country.

This country over here is China.

Ova država ovdje je Kina. Ovo je Indija.

This is India.

The size of the bubble is the population,

Veličina balona je stanovništvo, a na ovoj osi sam stavio stopu rađanja.

and on this axis here, I put fertility rate.

Because my students, what they said

Zbog toga što su moji studenti rekli

when they looked upon the world, and I asked them,

kad su pogledali svijet, a ja sam ih pitao,

"What do you really think about the world?"

"Što zaista mislite o svijetu?"

Prvo sam otkrio da je udžbenik uglavnom Tintin.

Well, I first discovered that the textbook was Tintin, mainly.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And they said, "The world is still 'we' and 'them.'

Rekli su, "Svijet je još uvijek 'mi' i 'oni.'

And 'we' is the Western world and 'them' is the Third World."

Mi smo Zapadni svijet, a oni su Treći svijet."

"A što smatrate pod Zapadnim svijetom?", upitao sam.

"And what do you mean with 'Western world?'" I said.

"Well, that's long life and small family.

"Pa, dug život i male obitelji, a Treći svijet su kratak život i velike obitelji."

And 'Third World' is short life and large family."

To su podaci koje sam mogao ovdje prikazati. Stopa rađanja je ovdje: broj djece po ženi,

So this is what I could display here.

I put fertility rate here --

number of children per woman: one, two, three, four,

jedno, dvoje, troje, četvero, sve do osmero djece po ženi.

up to about eight children per woman.

We have very good data since 1962, 1960, about,

Imamo vrlo dobre podatke od 1962. - 1960. - o veličini obitelji u svim zemljama.

on the size of families in all countries.

The error margin is narrow.

Margina pogreške je mala. Ovdje sam stavio očekivanu duljinu života pri rođenju,

Here, I put life expectancy at birth,

from 30 years in some countries, up to about 70 years.

od 30 godina u nekim zemljama, do nekih 70 godina.

And in 1962, there was really a group of countries here

1962. godine, ovdje se nalazila skupina zemalja.

that were industrialized countries,

Bile su to industrijalizirane zemlje, s malim obiteljima i dugim životnim vijekom.

and they had small families and long lives.

And these were the developing countries.

A ove su bile zemlje u razvoju:

They had large families and they had relatively short lives.

imale su velike obitelji i relativno kratki životni vijek.

Now, what has happened since 1962? We want to see the change.

Dakle, što se dogodilo od 1962? Želimo vidjeti promjenu.

Are the students right? It's still two types of countries?

Jesu li studenti u pravu? Postoje li još uvijek dvije vrste zemalja?

Or have these developing countries got smaller families and they live here?

Ili su zemlje u razvoju smanjile veličinu obitelji i sad žive ovdje?

Or have they got longer lives and live up there?

Ili imaju dulji životni vijek i žive ovdje?

Let's see. We start the world, eh?

Pogledajmo. Zaustavili smo svijet. Ovo je UN statistika

This is all UN statistics that have been available.

koja nam je dostupna. Idemo. Vidite li ovdje?

Here we go. Can you see there?

It's China there, moving against better health there, improving there.

Ovo je Kina, kreće se prema boljem zdravlju ovdje, napreduje.

All the green Latin American countries are moving towards smaller families.

Sve zelene latinoameričke države se kreću prema manjim obiteljima.

Ove žute ovdje su arapske države,

Your yellow ones here are the Arabic countries,

i one dobivaju veće obitelji, ali one -- ne, dulji život, ali ne veće obitelji.

and they get longer life, but not larger families.

The Africans are the green here. They still remain here.

Afrikanci su zeleni ovdje dolje. Oni su još uvijek ovdje.

This is India; Indonesia is moving on pretty fast.

Ovo je Indija. Indonezija se kreće prilično brzo.

In the '80s here, you have Bangladesh still among the African countries.

(Smijeh)

A 80-tih godina, Bangladeš je još uvijek među afričkim zemljama ovdje.

But now, Bangladesh -- it's a miracle that happens in the '80s --

Ali sada, Bangladeš -- ovo je čudo koje se događa u 80-tima:

the imams start to promote family planning,

imami počinju poticati obiteljsko planiranje.

and they move up into that corner.

Pomiču se u ovaj kut gore. A u 90-tima, imamo strašnu epidemiju HIV-a

And in the '90s, we have the terrible HIV epidemic

that takes down the life expectancy of the African countries.

koja smanjuje očekivano trajanje života u afričkim zemljama,

And the rest of them all move up into the corner,

a sve druge se pomiču u ovaj kut gore

where we have long lives and small family,

gdje imamo dug život i malu obitelj, i imamo potpuno novi svijet.

and we have a completely new world.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

(Applause ends)

Let me make a comparison directly

Dopustite da izravno usporedim Sjedinjene Države i Vijetnam.

between the United States of America and Vietnam.

1964:

1964: Amerika je imala male obitelji i dug život;

America had small families and long life;

Vietnam had large families and short lives.

Vijetnam velike obitelji i kratak život. I evo što se događa:

And this is what happens.

The data during the war indicate that even with all the death,

podaci tijekom rata pokazuju da je, usprkos poginulima,

there was an improvement of life expectancy.

došlo do produljenja očekivanog životnog vijeka. Do kraja godine,

By the end of the year, family planning started in Vietnam,

u Vijetnamu je počelo planiranje obitelji i kretanje prema manjim obiteljima.

and they went for smaller families.

And the United States up there is getting longer life,

A Sjedinjene Države ovdje gore idu prema duljem životu,

keeping family size.

zadržavajući veličinu obitelji. A sada u 80-tima,

And in the '80s now, they give up Communist planning

Vijetnam odustaje od komunističkog planiranja i usvaja tržišnu ekonomiju

and they go for market economy,

and it moves faster even than social life.

i kreće se brže čak i od društvenog života. A danas,

And today, we have in Vietnam

u Vijetnamu imamo isto trajanje života i istu veličinu obitelji

the same life expectancy and the same family size

evo, Vijetnam u 2003., kakva je bila u SAD 1974. godine, na kraju rata.

here in Vietnam, 2003,

as in United States, 1974, by the end of the war.

Mislim da svi mi - ako ne gledamo podatke --

I think we all, if we don't look at the data,

we underestimate the tremendous change in Asia,

podcijenjujemo strahovitu promjenu u Aziji u kojoj

which was in social change before we saw the economic change.

se dogodila društvena promjena prije nego što smo vidjeli ekonomsku promjenu.

So let's move over to another way here

Prijeđimo na drugi način na koji možemo prikazati

in which we could display the distribution in the world

distribuciju svjetskog dohotka. Ovo je svjetska distribucija dohotka.

of income.

This is the world distribution of income of people.

Jedan dolar, 10 dolara ili 100 dolara dnevno.

One dollar, 10 dollars or 100 dollars per day.

Nema više jaza između bogatih i siromašnih. To je mit.

There's no gap between rich and poor any longer. This is a myth.

There's a little hump here.

Ovdje postoji brežuljak. Ali ljudi postoje posvuda.

But there are people all the way.

And if we look where the income ends up,

A ako pogledamo gdje dohodak završava - dohodak --

this is 100 percent of the world's annual income.

ovo je 100 posto svjetskog godišnjeg dohotka. A najbogatijih 20 posto,

And the richest 20 percent,

they take out of that about 74 percent.

na njih otpada oko 74 posto. Na najsiromašnijih 20 posto

And the poorest 20 percent, they take about two percent.

otpada oko 2 posto. I ovo pokazuje da je koncept

And this shows that the concept of developing countries

is extremely doubtful.

zemalja u razvoju izrazito dvojben. Mi razmišljamo o pomoći,

We think about aid,

like these people here giving aid to these people here.

da ovi ovdje šalju pomoć ovim ljudima ovdje. Ali u sredini

But in the middle, we have most of the world population,

imamo najveći broj stanovnika, i na njih se odnosi 24 posto dohotka.

and they have now 24 percent of the income.

We heard it in other forms.

Čuli smo to i drugdje. A tko su oni?

And who are these?

Gdje su te različite zemlje? Pokazat ću vam u Africi.

Where are the different countries?

I can show you Africa.

This is Africa.

Ovo je Afrika. 10 posto svjetskog stanovništva, uglavnom u siromaštvu.

Ten percent of the world population,

most in poverty.

Ovo je OECD. Bogate zemlje. Gospodski klub UN-a.

This is OECD -- the rich countries, the country club of the UN.

And they are over here on this side. Quite an overlap between Africa and OECD.

One su na ovoj strani. Poprilično preklapanje između Afrike i OECD-a.

And this is Latin America.

A ovo je Južna Amerika. Uključuje svakoga na ovoj Zemlji,

It has everything on this earth, from the poorest to the richest

od najsiromašnijih do najbogatijih, ta južna Amerika.

in Latin America.

I na sve to možemo staviti istočnu Europu, istočnu Aziju,

And on top of that, we can put East Europe,

we can put East Asia, and we put South Asia.

i južnu Aziju. A kako je sve izgledalo ako se vratimo kroz vrijeme,

And what did it look like if we go back in time,

to about 1970?

negdje u 1970. godinu? Postojao je veći brijeg.

Then, there was more of a hump.

I najveći broj onih koji su živjeli u apsolutnoj bijedi su bili Azijci.

And most who lived in absolute poverty were Asians.

Svjetski problem je bilo siromaštvo u Aziji. A ako sad pokrenemo svijet unaprijed,

The problem in the world was the poverty in Asia.

And if I now let the world move forward,

you will see that while population increases,

vidimo da dok stanovništvo raste, stotine milijuna

there are hundreds of millions in Asia getting out of poverty,

ljudi u Aziji izlazi iz siromaštva, a neki drugi

and some others getting into poverty,

postaju siromašni, i to je obrazac koji imamo danas.

and this is the pattern we have today.

Najbolja projekcija Svjetske banke je da će se ovo dogoditi

And the best projection from the World Bank

is that this will happen,

i da nećemo imati podijeljen svijet. Večina ljudi će biti u sredini.

and we will not have a divided world.

We'll have most people in the middle.

Of course it's a logarithmic scale here,

Naravno, ovo ovdje je logoritamska skala,

but our concept of economy is growth with percent.

ali naš koncept gospodarstva je postotni rast. Gledamo

We look upon it as a possibility of percentile increase.

na gospodarstvo kao mogućnost postotnog povećanja. Ako to promijenim

If I change this and take GDP per capita instead of family income,

i uzmem BDP po stanovniku umjesto obiteljskog dohotka, i te pojedinačne

and I turn these individual data

podatke pretvorim u regionalne podatke o BDP-u,

into regional data of gross domestic product,

and I take the regions down here,

i prikažem regije ovdje dolje, veličina balona je i dalje stanovništvo.

the size of the bubble is still the population.

And you have the OECD there, and you have sub-Saharan Africa there,

I imate OECD ovdje, imate sub-saharsku Afriku ovdje,

and we take off the Arab states there,

i uzmemo arapske države ovdje,

coming both from Africa and from Asia,

i one afričke i one azijske, i prikažemo ih zasebno,

and we put them separately,

and we can expand this axis, and I can give it a new dimension here,

i možemo proširiti os, i mogu dodati novu dimenziju ovdje,

by adding the social values there, child survival.

dodajući društvene vrijednosti, preživljavanje djece.

Now I have money on that axis,

Sada imam novac na ovoj osi, i vjerojatnost preživljavanja djece na ovoj.

and I have the possibility of children to survive there.

In some countries, 99.7% of children survive to five years of age;

U nekim zemljama, 99,7 posto djece preživi do pete godine života;

others, only 70.

u drugim, samo 70 posto. I ovdje izgleda da postoji jaz

And here, it seems, there is a gap between OECD,

između OECD-a, južne Amerike, istočne Europe, istočne Azije,

Latin America, East Europe, East Asia,

Arab states, South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

arapskih država, južne Azije i sub-saharske Afrike.

The linearity is very strong between child survival and money.

Linearnost je vrlo jaka između preživljavanja djece i novca.

But let me split sub-Saharan Africa.

Ali, hajde da podijelim sub-saharsku Afriku. Zdravlje je ovdje, a bolje zdravlje je ovdje.

Health is there and better health is up there.

I can go here, and I can split sub-Saharan Africa into its countries.

Mogu ovdje podijeliti sub-saharsku Afriku na pojedine zemlje.

And when it bursts,

Nakon raspršenja, veličina balona je veličina stanovništva jedne države.

the size of each country bubble is the size of the population.

Sierra Leone down there, Mauritius is up there.

Sierra Leone ovdje dolje. Mauricijus ovdje gore. Mauricijus je prva zemlja

Mauritius was the first country to get away with trade barriers,

koja se odrekla trgovinskih barijera, i mogli su prodavati svoj šećer.

and they could sell their sugar, they could sell their textiles,

Mogli su prodavati svoj tekstil pod istim uvjetima kao i Europa i Sjeverna Amerika.

on equal terms as the people in Europe and North America.

There's a huge difference [within] Africa.

Razlike u Africi su ogromne. Ghana je ovdje u sredini.

And Ghana is here in the middle.

In Sierra Leone, humanitarian aid.

U Sierra Leone, humanitarna pomoć.

Here in Uganda, development aid.

U Ugandi, razvojna pomoć. Ovdje, vrijeme za ulaganja, ovdje

Here, time to invest; there, you can go for a holiday.

možete ići na ljetovanje. Varijacije unutar Afrike su

There's tremendous variation within Africa,

ogromne, a rijetko ih shvaćamo - kao da je sve jednako.

which we very often make that it's equal everything.

I can split South Asia here. India's the big bubble in the middle.

Mogu podijeliti južnu Aziju ovdje. Indija je veliki balon u sredini.

But there's a huge difference between Afghanistan and Sri Lanka.

Ali ogromna je razlika između Afganistana i Šri Lanke.

I can split Arab states. How are they?

Mogu podijeliti arapske zemlje. Kakve su one? Ista klima, ista kultura,

Same climate, same culture, same religion -- huge difference.

ista religija. Ogromne razlike. Čak i među susjedima.

Even between neighbors --

Yemen, civil war;

U Jemenu, građanski rat. Ujedinjeni Arapski Emirati, novac koji je ujednačeno i dobro upotrijebljen.

United Arab Emirates, money, which was quite equally and well-used.

Not as the myth is.

Ne odgovara mitovima. To uključuje svu djecu stranih radnika koji su u zemlji.

And that includes all the children of the foreign workers

who are in the country.

Podaci su često bolji nego što mislite. Mnogi tvrde da su podaci loši.

Data is often better than you think. Many people say data is bad.

There is an uncertainty margin, but we can see the difference here:

Postoji margina nesigurnosti, ali ovdje možemo vidjeti razlike:

Kambodža, Singapur. Razlike su mnogo veće

Cambodia, Singapore.

The differences are much bigger than the weakness of the data.

od slabosti podataka. Istočna Europa:

East Europe: Soviet economy for a long time,

sovjetska ekonomija dugo vremena, ali izlaze nakon deset godina

but they come out after 10 years very, very differently.

jako, jako različito. A ovdje je Južna Amerika.

And there is Latin America.

Danas, ne moramo ići na Kubu da pronađemo zdravu zemlju u Južnoj Americi.

Today, we don't have to go to Cuba

to find a healthy country in Latin America.

Chile will have a lower child mortality than Cuba within some few years from now.

Čile će imati nižu stopu dječje smrtnosti od Kube u idućih nekoliko godina.

Here, we have high-income countries in the OECD.

A ovdje su zemlje OECD-a s visokim dohotkom.

And we get the whole pattern here of the world,

Ovdje vidimo čitav svjetski uzorak,

which is more or less like this.

koji je, više ili manje, ovakav. I ako pogledamo

And if we look at it, how the world looks,

kako svijet izgleda 1960., počinje se kretati. 1960.

in 1960, it starts to move.

This is Mao Zedong. He brought health to China.

Ovo je Mao Ce Tung. Donio je zdravlje u Kinu. I tada je umro.

And then he died.

And then Deng Xiaoping came and brought money to China,

Tada Deng Xiaoping dolazi i donosi novac u Kinu, i vodi ih opet u glavnu struju.

and brought them into the mainstream again.

And we have seen how countries move in different directions like this,

I vidjeli smo kako se zemlje gibaju u različitim smjerovima

so it's sort of difficult to get an example country

pa je nekako teško naći zemlju

koja bi bila primjer za svjetski uzorak.

which shows the pattern of the world.

But I would like to bring you back to about here, at 1960.

Želim vas vratiti ovdje, u 1960. godinu.

Želio bih usporediti Južnu Koreju ovdje, s Brazilom

I would like to compare South Korea, which is this one,

with Brazil, which is this one.

koji je ovdje. Natpis mi je pobjegao. I želio bih usporediti Ugandu,

The label went away for me here.

And I would like to compare Uganda, which is there.

koja je ovdje. I mogu sve pokrenuti unaprijed, ovako.

I can run it forward, like this.

I vidite kako Južna Koreja vrlo, vrlo brzo napreduje,

And you can see how South Korea is making a very, very fast advancement,

whereas Brazil is much slower.

dok je Brazil puno sporiji.

And if we move back again, here, and we put trails on them, like this,

A ako se opet vratimo natrag, i uključimo im repove, ovako,

you can see again

vidite opet da je brzina razvoja

that the speed of development is very, very different,

jako, jako različita, i zemlje se kreću više ili manje

and the countries are moving more or less at the same rate

istom stopom kao i novac i zdravlje, ali čini se da možete

as money and health,

but it seems you can move much faster

napredovati puno brže ako ste prvo zdravi, nego ako ste prvo bogati.

if you are healthy first than if you are wealthy first.

And to show that, you can put on the way of United Arab Emirates.

Da bismo to pokazali, možemo pogledati put Ujedinjenih Arapskih Emirata.

They came from here, a mineral country.

Došli su odavde, zemlja s mineralima. Crpli su svu naftu,

They cached all the oil; they got all the money;

dobili sav novac, ali zdravlje ne možete kupiti u supermarketu.

but health cannot be bought at the supermarket.

Morate ulagati u zdravstvo. Morate školovati djecu.

You have to invest in health. You have to get kids into schooling.

You have to train health staff. You have to educate the population.

Morate obučiti zdravstvene djelatnike. Morate obrazovati stanovništvo.

And Sheikh Zayed did that in a fairly good way.

I šeik Sayed je to prilično dobro učinio.

In spite of falling oil prices, he brought this country up here.

Usprkos padu cijene nafte, doveo je svoju zemlju ovdje.

So we've got a much more mainstream appearance of the world,

Pa tako imamo puno ujednačeniji izgled svijeta,

where all countries tend to use their money

gdje sve zemlje koriste svoj novac bolje

better than they used it in the past.

nego što su ga koristile ranije. Ovo je, više ili manje,

Now, this is, more or less, if you look at the average data of the countries --

ako pogledate prosječne podatke po zemljama. Izgledaju ovako.

they are like this.

That's dangerous, to use average data,

To je opasno, koristiti prosječne podatke, jer postoje

because there is such a lot of difference within countries.

velike razlike i unutar zemalja. Pa ako pogledam ovdje, vidim

So if I go and look here,

we can see that Uganda today is where South Korea was in 1960.

da je Uganda danas ondje gdje je Južna Koreja bila 1960. Ako podijelim Ugandu

If I split Uganda, there's quite a difference within Uganda.

vidmo veliku razliku unutar Ugande. Ovo su petine u Ugandi.

These are the quintiles of Uganda.

The richest 20 percent of Ugandans are there.

Najbogatijih 20 posto u Ugandi su ovdje.

The poorest are down there.

Najsiromašniji su ovdje. Ako podijelim južnu Afriku, izgleda ovako.

If I split South Africa, it's like this.

And if I go down and look at Niger,

Ako se spustim i pogledam Nigeriju gdje je vladala strašna glad,

where there was such a terrible famine [recently],

izgleda ovako. 20 posto najsiromašnijih u Nigeriji je ovdje,

it's like this.

The 20 percent poorest of Niger is out here,

and the 20 percent richest of South Africa is there,

a 20 posto najbogatijih u južnoj Africi ovdje,

and yet we tend to discuss what solutions there should be in Africa.

a opet diskutiramo o mogućim rješenjima za Afriku.

Everything in this world exists in Africa.

U Africi imate sve što postoji na svijetu. I ne možete

And you can't discuss universal access to HIV [treatment]

razmatrati univerzalni pristup lijekovima za HIV za ovu petinu gore

for that quintile up here

with the same strategy as down here.

primijenjujući istu strategiju kao za ove dolje. Poboljšanje svijeta

The improvement of the world must be highly contextualized,

se mora staviti u kontekst, i nije relevantno promatrati ga

and it's not relevant to have it on a regional level.

na regionalnoj razini. Moramo biti mnogo precizniji.

We must be much more detailed.

Otkrivamo da su studenti uzbuđeni kad mogu koristiti ovo.

We find that students get very excited when they can use this.

And even more, policy makers and the corporate sectors

A još više kreatora politika i korporativnih sektora želi

would like to see how the world is changing.

vidjeti kako se svijet mijenja. Pa, zašto se onda to ne događa?

Now, why doesn't this take place?

Why are we not using the data we have?

Zašto ne koristimo podatke koje imamo? Imamo podatke u Ujedinjenim Narodima,

We have data in the United Nations, in the national statistical agencies

u nacionalnim statističkim uredima,

and in universities and other nongovernmental organizations.

na sveučilištima i drugim nevladinim organizacijama.

Because the data is hidden down in the databases.

Zato što su podaci skriveni u bazama podataka.

And the public is there, and the internet is there,

Javnost je ovdje, Internet je ovdje, ali još uvijek ne koristimo podatke učinkovito.

but we have still not used it effectively.

All that information we saw changing in the world

Sve te informacije koje smo vidjeli da se mijenjaju u svijetu,

does not include publicly funded statistics.

ne uključuju statistiku koja se financira javno. Postoje neke mrežne stranice

There are some web pages like this, you know,

poput ove, ali one se osvježavaju iz baza podataka,

but they take some nourishment down from the databases,

but people put prices on them, stupid passwords and boring statistics.

ali ljudi ih naplaćuju, glupe zaporke i dosadna statistika.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh) (Pljesak)

And this won't work.

(Applause)

I to ne funkcionira. Pa što je onda potrebno? Imamo baze podataka.

So what is needed? We have the databases.

It's not a new database that you need.

Nije nova baza ono što nam treba. Imamo divne oblikovne alate,

We have wonderful design tools and more and more are added up here.

i sve više i više ih se dodaje. Pa smo započeli

So we started a nonprofit venture linking data to design,

neprofitni pothvat kojeg smo nazvali - povezujući podatke i dizajn -

we called "Gapminder,"

zovemo ga Gapminder, po londonskoj podzemnoj željeznici gdje vas upozoravaju,

from the London Underground, where they warn you, "Mind the gap."

"mind the gap" (pazite na jaz). Mislili smo da je Gapminder prikladno ime.

So we thought Gapminder was appropriate.

I počeli smo pisati programe koji na ovakav način povezuju podatke.

And we started to write software which could link the data like this.

I nije bilo tako teško. Trebalo je nešto ljudskih godina, i napravili smo animacije.

And it wasn't that difficult.

It took some person years, and we have produced animations.

You can take a data set and put it there.

Možete uzeti niz podataka i staviti ga ovdje.

We are liberating UN data, some few UN organization.

Oslobađamo UN-ove podatke, nekih UN organizacija.

Some countries accept that their databases can go out on the world.

Neke zemlje prihvaćaju da njihove baze izlaze u svijet,

But what we really need is, of course, a search function,

ali ono što stvarno trebamo je, naravno, funkcija pretraživanja

a search function where we can copy the data up to a searchable format

gdje možemo kopirati podatke u formatu priladnom za pretraživanje

and get it out in the world.

i pustiti ih u svijet. I što čujemo u svojim obilascima?

And what do we hear when we go around?

Radio sam i antropologiju prema glavnim statističkim jedinicama. Svi kažu,

I've done anthropology on the main statistical units.

Everyone says, "It's impossible. This can't be done.

"Nemoguće. To se ne može. Naše informacije su toliko specifične

Our information is so peculiar in detail,

so that cannot be searched as others can be searched.

u svojim detaljima da ih se ne može pretraživati kako se pretražuje druge.

We cannot give the data free to the students,

Ne možemo dati podatke besplatno studentima, besplatno svjetskim poduzetnicima."

free to the entrepreneurs of the world."

Ali to je ono što bismo voljeli vidjeti, zar ne?

But this is what we would like to see, isn't it?

Podaci koji se financiraju iz javnih izvora su ovdje dolje.

The publicly funded data is down here.

And we would like flowers to grow out on the net.

A mi bismo željeli da cvjetovi rastu na Internetu.

One of the crucial points is to make them searchable,

A jedan od ključnih elemenata je učiniti ih prikladnim za pretraživanje, a onda

and then people can use the different design tools to animate it there.

ljudi mogu koristiti drukčiji oblikovni alat da ih ovdje animiraju.

Imam sasvim dobre vijesti za vas. Dobre su vijesti da sadašnji,

And I have pretty good news for you.

I have good news that the [current],

new head of UN statistics doesn't say it's impossible.

novi direktor UN Statistike ne kaže da je to nemoguće.

He only says, "We can't do it."

On kaže samo, "Mi to ne možemo."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And that's a quite clever guy, huh?

Tip je stvarno pametan, ha?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

So we can see a lot happening in data in the coming years.

U narednim godinama vidjet ćemo da se puno toga događa s podacima.

We will be able to look at income distributions in completely new ways.

Moći ćemo promatrati distribuciju dohotka na sasvim nove načine.

This is the income distribution of China, 1970.

Ovo je distribucija dohotka Kine 1970. godine.

This is the income distribution of the United States, 1970.

Distribucija dohotka Sjedinjenih Država, 1970.

Almost no overlap.

Skoro da i nema preklapanja. Skoro da i nema. I što se dogodilo?

Almost no overlap.

And what has happened?

What has happened is this:

Što se dogodilo je sljedeće: Kina raste, ne vlada više takva jednakost,

that China is growing, it's not so equal any longer,

and it's appearing here, overlooking the United States,

i to se pojavljuje ovdje, nad Sjedinjenim Državama.

almost like a ghost, isn't it?

Skoro kao duh, zar ne?

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

It's pretty scary.

Ovo je zastrašujuće. Ali mislim da je vrlo važno da imamo sve te informacije.

(Laughter)

But I think it's very important to have all this information.

We need really to see it.

Stvarno ih moramo vidjeti. I umjesto da gledamo ovo,

And instead of looking at this,

I would like to end up by showing the internet users per 1,000.

htio bih završiti s prikazom korisnika Interneta na 1.000 stanovnika.

In this software, we access about 500 variables

Ovim programom imamo lak pristup do 500 varijabli iz svih zemalja.

from all the countries quite easily.

Treba nešto vremena da ovo promijenimo,

It takes some time to change for this,

but on the axes, you can quite easily get any variable you would like to have.

ali na osima možete lako dobiti svaku varijablu koju želite.

I bitno bi bilo objaviti baze podataka besplatno,

And the thing would be to get up the databases free,

to get them searchable, and with a second click,

prilagoditi ih pretraživanju, i drugim klikom, pretvoriti ih

to get them into the graphic formats, where you can instantly understand them.

u grafički oblik u kojem ih smjesta možemo razumjeti.

Now, statisticians don't like it, because they say

Sad, statističari to ne vole jer kažu da ovo

that this will not show the reality;

ne prikazuje stvarnost; moramo rabiti statističke, analitičke metode.

we have to have statistical, analytical methods.

Ali to je stvaranje hipoteza.

But this is hypothesis-generating.

I end now with the world.

Završavam sa svijetom. Ovdje, dolazi Internet.

There, the internet is coming.

The number of internet users are going up like this.

Broj Internet korisnika raste ovako. Ovo je BDP po stanovniku.

This is the GDP per capita.

I ovo je nova tehnologija što dolazi, ali se zadivljujuće

And it's a new technology coming in, but then amazingly,

how well it fits to the economy of the countries.

dobro uklapa u gospodarstvo zemalja. Evo zašto će računalo

That's why the $100 computer will be so important.

od 100 dolara biti tako važno. No, trend je lijep.

But it's a nice tendency.

It's as if the world is flattening off, isn't it?

Izgleda kao da se svijet splošćuje, zar ne? Ove zemlje

These countries are lifting more than the economy,

se dižu brže od ekonomije i bit će zanimljivo

and it will be very interesting to follow this over the year,

promatrati ovo tijekom godine kako bih ja volio da možete

as I would like you to be able to do with all the publicly funded data.

s podacima financiranim iz javnih izvora. Hvala vam lijepo.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)