Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box

Prevodilac: Elizabeta Petrovic Lektor: Vanja Cakić

I still remember the day in school

Još uvek se sećam dana u školi

when our teacher told us

kada nam je učiteljica rekla

that the world population had become

da je svetska populacija dostigla tri milijarde ljudi.

three billion people,

and that was in 1960.

A to je bilo 1960.

I'm going to talk now about

A ja ću sada govoriti o tome kako se svetska populacija menjala od te godine

how world population has changed from that year

and into the future,

pa sve do u budućnost.

but I will not use digital technology,

Ali neću koristiti digitalnu tehnologiju

as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.

kao što sam radio u svojih prvih pet TED govora.

Instead, I have progressed,

Umesto toga, ja sam napredovao.

I ja, danas, objavljujem sasvim novu analognu tehnologiju

and I am, today, launching

a brand new analog teaching technology

za podučavanje koju sam našao u IKEI:

that I picked up from IKEA:

this box.

ovu kutiju.

Ova kutija sadrži jednu milijardu ljudi.

This box contains one billion people.

And our teacher told us

A naša učiteljica nam je rekla

that the industrialized world, 1960,

da je industrijalizovani svet, 1960,

had one billion people.

imao jednu milijardu ljudi.

In the developing world, she said,

A svet u razvoju, rekla je,

they had two billion people.

imao je dve milijarde ljudi.

And they lived away then.

I oni su onda živeli daleko.

There was a big gap between

Bio je veliki jaz između jedne milijarde industrijalizovanog sveta

the one billion in the industrialized world

and the two billion in the developing world.

i dve milijarde sveta u razvoju.

In the industrialized world,

U industrijalizovanom svetu,

people were healthy,

ljudi su bili zdravi,

educated, rich,

obrazovani, bogati,

and they had small families.

i imali su male porodice.

And their aspiration

A njihova ambicija je bila da kupe automobil.

was to buy a car.

And in 1960, all Swedes were saving

I u 1960-im svi Šveđani su štedeli kako bi mogli da kupe Volvo poput ovog.

to try to buy a Volvo like this.

This was the economic level at which Sweden was.

To je bio ekonomski nivo na kome se nalazila Švedska.

But in contrast to this,

A suprotno tome,

in the developing world, far away,

u svetu u razvoju, negde daleko,

the aspiration of the average family there

ambicija prosečne porodice

was to have food for the day.

je bila da se prehrane taj dan.

They were saving

I oni su štedeli

kako bi mogli da kupe par cipela.

to be able to buy a pair of shoes.

There was an enormous gap in the world

Postojao je enorman jaz u svetu kada sam ja odrastao.

when I grew up.

And this gap between the West and the rest

A taj jaz između Zapada i ostatka sveta

has created a mindset of the world,

je stvorio mentalni sklop sveta koji još uvek lingvistički koristimo

which we still use linguistically

when we talk about "the West"

kada govorimo o "Zapadu"

and "the Developing World."

i "svetu u razvoju".

But the world has changed,

Ali svet se promenio,

and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset

i odavno je trebalo da se promeni taj mentalni sklop,

and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.

ta klasifikacija sveta, i da se razume kakav je sada.

And that's what I'm going to show you,

A to je ono što ću vam pokazati.

because since 1960

Jer od 1960.

what has happened in the world up to 2010

ono što se do 2010. dogodilo svetu

is that a staggering

jeste da je vrtoglavih četiri milijarde ljudi

four billion people

have been added to the world population.

dodato svetskoj populaciji.

Just look how many.

Pogledajte samo koliko.

The world population has doubled

Svetska populacija se udvostručila

since I went to school.

od kada sam ja išao u školu.

And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.

I naravno, na Zapadu se dogodio ekonomski rast.

A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,

Veliki broj preduzeća je pomogao rastu ekonomije,

so the Western population moved over to here.

tako se populacija sa zapada pomakla ovde.

And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.

I sada njihova ambicija nije da samo imaju automobil.

Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination

Sada žele da provedu praznike negde daleko

and they want to fly.

i žele tamo da lete.

So this is where they are today.

Evo gde su danas.

And the most successful of the developing countries,

A najuspješnije zemlje u razvoju,

they have moved on, you know,

su se pomakle, takođe.

and they have become emerging economies, we call them.

Zovemo ih "nove, rastuće ekonomije".

They are now buying cars.

I sada oni kupuju automobile.

And what happened a month ago

I ono što se dogodilo pre mesec dana

was that the Chinese company, Geely,

jeste da je kineska kompanija, Geely,

they acquired the Volvo company,

preuzela kompaniju Volvo.

I konačno su Šveđani shvatili da se nešto veliko desilo u svetu.

and then finally the Swedes understood that

something big had happened in the world.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So there they are.

Eto tu su oni.

I tragedija je što se dve milijarde ovih ovde

And the tragedy is that the two billion over here

that is struggling for food and shoes,

još uvek bore za hranu i cipele,

they are still almost as poor

oni su gotovo jednako siromašni kao što su bili pre 50 godina.

as they were 50 years ago.

The new thing is that

Nova stvar je da imamo najveću gomilu milijardi, tri milijarde ovde,

we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,

which are also becoming emerging economies,

koji takođe postaju ekonomije u razvoju,

because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,

jer su prilično zdravi, relativno dobro obrazovani,

and they already also have two to three children

i oni takođe imaju dvoje ili troje dece po ženi, kao i oni bogatiji.

per woman, as those [richer also] have.

And their aspiration now

I njihova ambicija sada

is, of course, to buy a bicycle,

je, naravno, da kupe bicikl,

and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.

a onda bi kasnije želeli da imaju i motor, takođe.

But this is the world

Ali to je svet

we have today,

koji imamo danas.

Nema više jazova.

no longer any gap.

But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,

Ali je razlika između siromašnih ovde, najsiromašnijih,

to the very richest over here is wider than ever.

do najbogatijih ovde, veća nego ikada.

But there is a continuous world

Međutim postoji kontinuitet u svetu

from walking, biking,

od hodanja, vožnje biciklom,

driving, flying --

vožnje automobilom do letenja -

there are people on all levels,

postoje ljudi na svim nivoima.

and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.

A većina ljudi je negde u sredini.

This is the new world we have today

Ovo je novi svet kakav imamo danas

in 2010.

u 2010.

And what will happen in the future?

A šta će se dogoditi u budućnosti?

Pokušaću da predvidim do 2050.

Well, I'm going to project

into 2050.

I was in Shanghai recently,

Bio sam u Šangaju nedavno.

and I listened to what's happening in China,

I slušao sam šta se događa u Kini.

and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,

I prilično je sigurno da će nas sustići

just as Japan did.

kao što je i Japan učinio.

All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with

Sve projekcije kažu da će ovi ovde da rastu samo

one to two or three percent.

jedan do dva ili tri posto.

[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.

Ali ovi drugi rastu sa sedam, osam posto.

I onda će završiti ovde.

They will start flying.

Oni će početi da lete.

And these

A ove

lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,

zemlje s nižim ili srednjim primanjima, zemlje u razvoju,

they will also forge forwards economically.

one će takođe krenuti ekonomski napred.

And if,

I ako,

but only if,

ali samo ako,

investiramo u prave zelene tehnologije -

we invest in the right green technology --

tako da izbegnemo ozbiljne klimatske promene,

so that we can avoid severe climate change,

and energy can still be relatively cheap --

i da energija može da bude još uvek relativno jeftina -

then they will move all the way up here.

onda će se oni pomaći skroz ovamo.

And they will start to buy

I oni će početi da kupuju električne automobile.

electric cars.

To ćemo pronaći ovde.

This is what we will find there.

A šta je sa najsiromašnije dve milijarde?

So what about the poorest two billion?

What about the poorest two billion here?

Šta je sa najsiromašnije dve milijarde ovde?

Will they move on?

Hoće li se pomaći?

Well, here population [growth] comes in

Ovde je rast stanovništva

because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,

jer tu već imamo samo dvoje do troje dece po ženi,

family planning is widely used,

planiranje porodice se široko koristi,

and population growth is coming to an end.

i populacijski rast se bliži kraju.

Here [among the poorest], population is growing.

Ali ovde među najsiromašnijima, populacija raste.

So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,

Tako će se ove najsiromašnije dve milijarde, u sledeće dve decenije

increase to three billion,

povećati na tri milijarde.

and they will thereafter

I onda će se nakon toga

increase to four billion.

povećati na četiri milijarde.

There is nothing --

Ne postoji ništa -

but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --

osim nuklearnog rata kakvog svet još nije video -

that can stop this [growth] from happening.

što može zaustaviti taj rast.

Because we already have this [growth] in process.

Jer je taj rast već u procesu.

But if, and only if,

Ali ako, i jedino ako,

[the poorest] get out of poverty,

najsiromašniji izađu iz siromaštva,

they get education, they get improved child survival,

dobiju obrazovanje, smanje smrtnost dece,

they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,

mogu da kupe bicikl i mobilni i dođu da žive ovde,

then population growth

onda će rast stanovništva stati 2050.

will stop in 2050.

We cannot have people on this level

Ne možemo da imamo ljude na ovom nivou

looking for food and shoes

koji traže hranu i cipele,

because then we get continued population growth.

jer ćemo onda imati stalan rast populacije.

And let me show you why

I dozvolite da vam pokažem zašto,

by converting back to the old-time

korišćenjem starinske digitalne tehnologije.

digital technology.

Here I have on the screen

Ovde na ekranu imam svoje balone zemalja.

my country bubbles.

Svaki balon je zemlja. Veličina je broj stanovnika.

Every bubble is a country. The size is population.

The colors show the continent.

Boje pokazuju kontinente.

The yellow on there is the Americas;

Žuta predstavlja Amerike;

dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;

tamno plava Afriku; smeđa je Europa;

green is the Middle East

zelena Bliski istok;

a ova svetlo plava je Južna Azija.

and this light blue is South Asia.

That's India and this is China. Size is population.

Ovo je Indija, a ovo je Kina. Veličina je populacija.

Here I have children per woman:

Ovde imam broj dece po ženi,

two children, four children, six children, eight children --

dvoje dece, četvoro dece, šestoro dece, osmoro dece -

big families, small families.

velike porodice nasuprot malih porodica.

Godina je 1960.

The year is 1960.

And down here, child survival,

I ovde dole, preživljavanje dece,

the percentage of children surviving childhood

procenat dece koja prežive detinjstvo do početka škole.

up to starting school:

60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,

Šezdeset procenata, 70, 80, 90,

and almost 100 percent, as we have today

i gotovo 100 procenata,

kao što imamo danas u najbogatijim i najzdravijim zemljama.

in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.

But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:

Ali pogledajte, ovo je svet o kojem je moj profesor pričao 1960.

one billion Western world here --

Jedna milijarda zapadnjaka ovde,

high child-survival, small families --

mala stopa smrtnosti dece, male porodice.

and all the rest,

I svi ostali,

duga zemalja u razvoju,

the rainbow of developing countries,

with very large families

s velikim porodicama

and poor child survival.

i slabim preživljavanjem dece.

What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.

Šta se dogodilo? Pokrećem svet. Idemo.

Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?

Možete li da vidite, kako godine prolaze, preživljavanje dece se povećava?

They get soap, hygiene, education,

Oni dobijaju sapun, higijenu, obrazovanje,

vaccination, penicillin

vakcine i penicilin.

and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.

I onda planiranje porodice. Veličina porodice se smanjuje.

[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,

Kad dođu do 90 procenata preživljavanja dece, porodice počnu da se smanjuju.

and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East

I većina arapskih zemalja na Bliskom istoku

is falling down there [to small families].

pada ovde dole do malenih porodica.

Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.

Pogledajte, Bangladeš sustiže Indiju.

The whole emerging world

Sve rastuće ekonomije u svetu

joins the Western world

pridružuju se zapadnom svetu

with good child survival

s dobrom stopom dece koja preživljavaju

and small family size,

i malim porodicama.

but we still have the poorest billion.

Ali još uvek imamo milijardu najsiromašnijih.

Can you see the poorest billion,

Vidite li milijardu najsiromašnijih,

those [two] boxes I had over here?

ove dve kutije koje sam imao ovde?

They are still up here.

Oni su još uvek ovde gore.

And they still have a child survival

I oni još uvek imaju stopu preživljavanja dece

of only 70 to 80 percent,

od samo 70 do 80 posto,

meaning that if you have six children born,

što znači da ako imate šestoro dece,

there will be at least four who survive

najmanje četvoro će preživeti do sledeće generacije.

to the next generation.

A populacija će se udvostručiti unutar jedne generacije.

And the population will double in one generation.

So the only way

Tako da je jedini način

of really getting world population [growth] to stop

za zaustavljanje rasta svetskog stanovništva

is to continue to improve child survival

kontinuirano poboljšavanje stope preživljavanja dece do 90 procenata.

to 90 percent.

That's why investments by Gates Foundation,

Zato su zdravstvene investicije Fondacije Gejts,

UNICEF and aid organizations,

UNICEF-a i drugih organizacija za pomoć,

together with national government in the poorest countries,

zajedno s nacionalnim vladama najsiromašnijih zemalja, tako dobre.

are so good;

because they are actually

Jer one nam u stvari

helping us to reach

pomažu da dosegnemo

a sustainable population size of the world.

održivu veličinu svetske populacije.

We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.

Možemo se zaustaviti na devet milijardi ako uradimo prave stvari.

Child survival is the new green.

Preživljavanje dece je nova obveza.

It's only by child survival

Jedino kroz preživljavanje dece

that we will stop population growth.

zaustavićemo rast populacije.

And will it happen?

A hoće li se to dogoditi?

Well, I'm not an optimist,

Ja nisam optimista,

neither am I a pessimist.

niti sam pesimista.

I'm a very serious "possibilist."

Ja sam veoma ozbiljni "mogućnoista".

It's a new category where we take emotion apart,

To je nova kategorija u kojoj emocije stavljamo na stranu,

and we just work analytically with the world.

i jednostavno analitički pristupamo svetu.

It can be done.

Može se uraditi.

We can have a much more just world.

Možemo imati puno pravedniji svet.

Sa zelenim tehnologijama

With green technology

i investicijama koje iskorenjuju siromaštvo,

and with investments to alleviate poverty,

and global governance,

i s dobrim globalnim vladanjem,

svet može postati ovakav.

the world can become like this.

I pogledajte položaj starog Zapada.

And look at the position of the old West.

Remember when this blue box was all alone,

Setite se kad je ova plava kutija bila sama,

leading the world, living its own life.

vodeći svet, živeći svoj život.

This will not happen [again].

To se neće ponoviti.

The role of the old West in the new world

Uloga starog Zapada u novom svetu

is to become the foundation

je da postane temelj modernog sveta -

of the modern world --

nothing more, nothing less.

ništa više, ništa manje.

But it's a very important role.

Ali to je jako važna uloga.

Do it well and get used to it.

Radite je dobro i naviknite se na nju.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)