Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box

Translator: Xabier Lamikiz Reviewer: Alvaro Moya

I still remember the day in school

Oraindik gogoratzen dut egun hura,

when our teacher told us

eskolan geundela, gure andereñoak

that the world population had become

mundu populazioa 3.000 milioitara

three billion people,

iritsi berri zela esan zigunean.

and that was in 1960.

1960. urtean izan zen.

I'm going to talk now about

Orain mundu populazioa nola aldatu den

how world population has changed from that year

kontatuko dizuet, urte hartatik aurrera

and into the future,

eta etorkizunean barrena,

but I will not use digital technology,

baina ez dut teknologia digitalik erabiliko,

as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.

beste TEDeko hitzaldietan egin dudan bezala.

Instead, I have progressed,

Horren ordez, beste zerbait egingo dut:

and I am, today, launching

gaur irakaskuntza teknologia analogiko

a brand new analog teaching technology

berri bat plazaratuko dut,

that I picked up from IKEA:

IKEAn erosi dudana:

this box.

kutxa hau.

This box contains one billion people.

Kutxa honek 1.000 milioi pertsona ditu barnean.

And our teacher told us

Eta gure andereñoak esan zigun

that the industrialized world, 1960,

mundu industrializatuak, 1960an,

had one billion people.

1.000 milioi biztanle zituela.

In the developing world, she said,

Eta garapen bideko munduan, esan zigunez,

they had two billion people.

2.000 milioi bizi ziren.

And they lived away then.

Eta bi mundu hauek aldenduta bizi ziren.

There was a big gap between

Tarte nabarmena zegoen

the one billion in the industrialized world

mundu industrializatuko 1.000 milioien artean

and the two billion in the developing world.

eta garapen bideko 2.000en artean.

In the industrialized world,

Mundu industrializatuan

people were healthy,

jendea osasuntsua zen,

educated, rich,

hezitua, aberatsa,

and they had small families.

eta familia txikiak zituzten.

And their aspiration

Eta euren helburua

was to buy a car.

kotxe bat erostea zen.

And in 1960, all Swedes were saving

Eta 1960an, suediar guztiek aurrezten zuten

to try to buy a Volvo like this.

hau bezalako Volvo bat erosteko asmoz.

This was the economic level at which Sweden was.

Hau zen Suediaren maila ekonomikoa.

But in contrast to this,

Aldiz, honekin kontraste bizian,

in the developing world, far away,

garapen bideko munduan, oso urruti,

the aspiration of the average family there

familia ertain baten helburua

was to have food for the day.

eguneko janaria lortzea zen.

They were saving

Eta dirua aurrezten zuten

to be able to buy a pair of shoes.

zapata pare bat erosi ahal izateko.

There was an enormous gap in the world

Munduan sekulako arrakala zegoen

when I grew up.

ni haurra nintzenean.

And this gap between the West and the rest

Mendebaldea eta gainerakoak banatzen zituen tarte horrek

has created a mindset of the world,

munduan mentalitate jakin bat sortu du,

which we still use linguistically

oraindik ere gure hizkuntzan islatzen dena,

when we talk about "the West"

"Mendebaldeaz" eta "Garapen

and "the Developing World."

bideko munduaz" mintzatzen garenean.

But the world has changed,

Baina mundua aldatu egin da,

and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset

eta garaia da mentalitate hori eguneratu

and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.

eta hobe ulertzeko. Eta hori bera da

And that's what I'm going to show you,

erakutsiko dizuedana,

because since 1960

zeren 1960tik

what has happened in the world up to 2010

2010 arte munduan gertatu dena

is that a staggering

zera da:

four billion people

4.000 milioi biztanle

have been added to the world population.

batu zaizkiola mundu populazioari.

Just look how many.

Ikus ezazue zenbat.

The world population has doubled

Mundu populazioa bikoiztu egin da

since I went to school.

ni eskolara joan nintzenetik.

And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.

Eta, noski, Mendebaldean ekonomi hazkundea izan da.

A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,

Enpresa askoren agerpenak ekonomia hazi egin du,

so the Western population moved over to here.

eta beraz Mendebaldeko populazioa hona mugitu da.

And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.

Eta orain euren helburua ez da auto bat erostea soilik.

Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination

Orain oporretan joan nahi dute oso urrutira

and they want to fly.

eta hegazkinez bidaiatu nahi dute.

So this is where they are today.

Ondorioz gaur hemen daude.

And the most successful of the developing countries,

Eta garapen bideko herrialde arrakastasuenek ere

they have moved on, you know,

aurrera egin dute, dakizuenez,

and they have become emerging economies, we call them.

eta orain "ekonomia emergente" deitzen diegu.

They are now buying cars.

Orain kotxeak erosten dituzte.

And what happened a month ago

Eta duela hilabete gertatu zen

was that the Chinese company, Geely,

txinatar enpresa batek, Geely-k,

they acquired the Volvo company,

Volvo konpania osoa erosi zuela

and then finally the Swedes understood that

eta azkenik suediarrek ulertu dute

something big had happened in the world.

zerbait handia gertatu dela munduan.

(Laughter)

(barreak)

So there they are.

Hor daude beraz.

And the tragedy is that the two billion over here

Eta tragedia da hemengo 2.000 milioiek,

that is struggling for food and shoes,

janaria eta zapatak lortu nahi dituztenek,

they are still almost as poor

oraindik ere duela 50 urte

as they were 50 years ago.

bezain pobreak direla.

The new thing is that

Berria dena zera da

we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,

jendetza kopuru handiena, 3.000 milioi hauek,

which are also becoming emerging economies,

zeinak "ekonomia emergente" bihurtzen ari diren,

because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,

zeren nahikoa osasuntsu eta ondo hezituak dira,

and they already also have two to three children

eta jadanik emakumeko 2 edo 3 semealaba dituzte,

per woman, as those [richer also] have.

beste herrialde aberatsek bezala.

And their aspiration now

Eta orain euren helburua,

is, of course, to buy a bicycle,

nola ez, bizikleta bat erostea da,

and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.

eta beranduago moto bat izatea nahiko dute.

But this is the world

Beraz hau da

we have today,

egungo mundua,

no longer any gap.

tarterik gabekoa.

But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,

Baina txiroenen eta aberatsenen arteko

to the very richest over here is wider than ever.

distantzia inoiz baino zabalagoa da.

But there is a continuous world

Hala ere etenik gabeko mundua daukagu

from walking, biking,

oinez, bizikletaz,

driving, flying --

autoz, hegazkinez:

there are people on all levels,

maila guztietan dago jendea,

and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.

eta jende gehiena erdibidean kokatua dago.

This is the new world we have today

Hau da egungo mundua,

in 2010.

2010. urtekoa.

And what will happen in the future?

Eta zer gertatuko da etorkizunean?

Well, I'm going to project

Beno, 2050. urtera arte

into 2050.

proiektatuko dut.

I was in Shanghai recently,

Shanghain izan naiz duela gutxi,

and I listened to what's happening in China,

eta Txinan gertatzen ari denaren berri izan nuen,

and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,

eta gauza ziurra da harrapatuko gaituztela,

just as Japan did.

Japonek egin zuen bezala.

All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with

Proiekzio guztien arabera hauen ekonomia

one to two or three percent.

urteko %1 eta %3 bitartean haziko da,

[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.

eta Txina aldiz urteko %8. Eta hemen bukatuko dute.

They will start flying.

Hegan egiten hasiko dira.

And these

Eta hauek,

lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,

errenta ertaineko herrialdeek, goraka doazenak,

they will also forge forwards economically.

hauen ekonomia ere hazi egingo da.

And if,

Eta

but only if,

etorkizunean teknologia berde

we invest in the right green technology --

egokian inbertitzen badugu,

so that we can avoid severe climate change,

klima aldaketa saihestu eta energia

and energy can still be relatively cheap --

merke mantendu ahal izateko,

then they will move all the way up here.

orduan herrialde "emergenteak" hona igoko dira.

And they will start to buy

Eta auto elektrikoak erosten

electric cars.

hasiko dira.

This is what we will find there.

Hau da hor aurkituko duguna.

So what about the poorest two billion?

Eta zer gertatuko da txiroenekin,

What about the poorest two billion here?

hemengo 2.000 milioiekin?

Will they move on?

Aurrerapenik biziko ote dute?

Well, here population [growth] comes in

Hau erantzuteko populazio hazkundean fijatu behar gara,

because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,

zeren herrialdeotan jadanik badituzte 2 edo 3 semealaba emakumeko,

family planning is widely used,

askok familia-planifikazioa darabilte,

and population growth is coming to an end.

eta populazio hazkundea moteltzen ari da.

Here [among the poorest], population is growing.

Aldiz hemen, txiroenen artean, populazioa hazten ari da.

So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,

Beraz 2.000 milioiak 3.000 bihurtuko dira

increase to three billion,

hurrengo hamarkadetan,

and they will thereafter

eta beranduago

increase to four billion.

4.000 milioi izango dira.

There is nothing --

Ezerk ezingo du

but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --

hau geldiarazi,

that can stop this [growth] from happening.

gerra nuklear batek ez bada.

Because we already have this [growth] in process.

Zeren hazkunde hau gertatzen ari da jadanik.

But if, and only if,

Baina txiroenak

[the poorest] get out of poverty,

probeziatik aterako badira,

they get education, they get improved child survival,

hezkuntza jaso, haurren bizi iraupena hobetu,

they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,

bizikleta bat eta mugikor bat erosi, eta hona iritsi,

then population growth

orduan mundu populazio hazkundea

will stop in 2050.

2050ean bukatuko litzateke.

We cannot have people on this level

Ezin dugu maila honetan jendea

looking for food and shoes

janari eta zapata bila izan

because then we get continued population growth.

zeren orduan populazio hazkundeak jarraituko luke.

And let me show you why

Eta utz ezadazue hau guztia

by converting back to the old-time

teknologia digitalaren

digital technology.

bidez kontatzen.

Here I have on the screen

Pantaila honetan

my country bubbles.

globoak ditut.

Every bubble is a country. The size is population.

Globo bakoitza herrialde bat da. Tamainak populazioa

The colors show the continent.

adierazten du, eta koloreek kontinentea.

The yellow on there is the Americas;

Horiak Amerika;

dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;

urdin ilunak Afrika; marroiak Europa;

green is the Middle East

berdeak Ekialde Hurbila

and this light blue is South Asia.

eta urdin argiak Asia Hegoaldea.

That's India and this is China. Size is population.

Hori India da eta hau Txina.

Here I have children per woman:

Ardatz honetan semealabak emakumeko:

two children, four children, six children, eight children --

bi haur, lau, sei, zortzi,

big families, small families.

familia handiak, familia txikiak.

The year is 1960.

1960. urtean gaude.

And down here, child survival,

Eta hemen azpian haurren biziraupena daukagu,

the percentage of children surviving childhood

haurtzaroa bizirik gainditzen dutenen ehunekoa

up to starting school:

eskolara hasi arte:

60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,

%60, %70, %80, %90,

and almost 100 percent, as we have today

eta ia %100, egun herrialde

in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.

aberatsenetan daukagun moduan.

But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:

Baina begira, hau da 1960ko mundua:

one billion Western world here --

1.000 milioi Mendebaldeko herrialdeetan,

high child-survival, small families --

haurren biziraupen handia, familia txikiak...

and all the rest,

eta beste guztiak,

the rainbow of developing countries,

garapen bidean dauden herrialdeak,

with very large families

euren familia handiekin

and poor child survival.

eta haurren biziraupen txikia.

What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.

Zer gertatu da? Martxan jarriko dut.

Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?

Ikusten al duzue, urteak pasa ahala, biziraupena hazi egiten dela?

They get soap, hygiene, education,

Xaboia, higienea, heziketa,

vaccination, penicillin

txertoak, penizilina eta

and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.

familia-plangintza jasotzen dute. Familia txikitzen doa.

[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,

Biziraupena %90ra iristen direnean, orduan familiak txikitu egiten dira,

and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East

eta herrialde arabiar gehienetan erortzen ari da

is falling down there [to small families].

familiak txikiak izan arte.

Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.

Begira, Bangladesh India harrapatzen ari da.

The whole emerging world

Mundu "emergenteak"

joins the Western world

"Mendebaldearekin" bat egiten du,

with good child survival

haurren biziraupena areagotuz,

and small family size,

eta familia txikituz,

but we still have the poorest billion.

baina oraindik ere 2.000 milioi pobre daude.

Can you see the poorest billion,

Ikusten al dituzue txiroenak,

those [two] boxes I had over here?

hemen nituen kutxak?

They are still up here.

Oraindik ere hor goian daude:

And they still have a child survival

haurren biziraupena txikia da,

of only 70 to 80 percent,

%70 eta %80 bitartekoa soilik,

meaning that if you have six children born,

hau da, sei jaiotako sei semealabatik

there will be at least four who survive

haurtzaroa lauk gaindituko dute

to the next generation.

hurrengo belaunaldira iritsiz.

And the population will double in one generation.

Eta belaundaldi batean populazioa bikoiztu egingo da.

So the only way

Beraz, populazioaren

of really getting world population [growth] to stop

hazkundea gelditzeko modu bakarra

is to continue to improve child survival

haurren biziraupena %90 arte

to 90 percent.

hobetzea da.

That's why investments by Gates Foundation,

Horregatik dira Gates Fundazioaren, UNICEF-en eta

UNICEF and aid organizations,

beste erakunde batzuen inbertsioak,

together with national government in the poorest countries,

herrialde txiroenen gobernuekin batera,

are so good;

hain onuragarriak;

because they are actually

zeren mundu populazio kopuru

helping us to reach

iraunkor bat lortzen

a sustainable population size of the world.

laguntzen digute.

We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.

9.000 milioitan gera gaitezke gauzak ondo egin ezkero.

Child survival is the new green.

Haurren biziraupena da gakoa.

It's only by child survival

Haurren biziraupena igoz

that we will stop population growth.

populazioaren hazkundea geratuko dugu.

And will it happen?

Eta hau gertatuko ote da?

Well, I'm not an optimist,

Ni ez naiz optimista,

neither am I a pessimist.

ezta pesimista ere.

I'm a very serious "possibilist."

Ni oso "posibilista" serio bat naiz.

It's a new category where we take emotion apart,

Kategoria berri bat da, mundua

and we just work analytically with the world.

analitikoki aztertzen laguntzen diguna.

It can be done.

Egin daiteke!

We can have a much more just world.

Mundua askoz bidezkoagoa izan daiteke.

With green technology

Teknologia berdearekin

and with investments to alleviate poverty,

eta pobrezia gutxitzeko inbertsioekin,

and global governance,

eta erakunde globalekin

the world can become like this.

mundua honelakoa bihur daiteke.

And look at the position of the old West.

Eta begira Mendebalde zaharraren kokapena.

Remember when this blue box was all alone,

Gogoratzen zarete kutxa urdin hau bakarrik

leading the world, living its own life.

zegoenean, munduaren buruan?

This will not happen [again].

Hori ez da berriro gertatuko.

The role of the old West in the new world

Etorkizunean Mendebalde zaharra

is to become the foundation

mundu modernoaren

of the modern world --

zimendua izango da, alajaina.

nothing more, nothing less.

Oso zeregin

But it's a very important role.

garrantzitsua da.

Do it well and get used to it.

Egizazue ondo eta ohi zaitezte horretara.

Thank you very much.

Mila esker guztioi.

(Applause)

(Txaloak)