Hans Rosling: Global population growth, box by box

翻译人员: Halei Liu 校对人员: Zhu Jie

I still remember the day in school

我仍然记得我还在上学的时候

when our teacher told us

老师告诉我们

that the world population had become

世界的人口总数已经达到了

three billion people,

30亿人口。

and that was in 1960.

那还是在1960年。

I'm going to talk now about

现在我要谈谈

how world population has changed from that year

从那个年代到现在

and into the future,

世界人口是怎样变化的。

but I will not use digital technology,

但是我不会像我上五次谈话那样

as I've done during my first five TEDTalks.

使用数码科技。

Instead, I have progressed,

相反的，我进步了。

and I am, today, launching

我在今天，会展示

a brand new analog teaching technology

一个崭新的模拟教学科技

that I picked up from IKEA:

这是我从宜家买来的，

this box.

这个箱子。

This box contains one billion people.

这个箱子包含十亿人口。

And our teacher told us

我的老师告诉我

that the industrialized world, 1960,

在工业化的世界，1960年，

had one billion people.

有十个亿的人口。

In the developing world, she said,

在发展中的国家，她说道，

they had two billion people.

有两亿人口

And they lived away then.

而且他们的生活相对隔离。

There was a big gap between

在10亿的工业化世界

the one billion in the industrialized world

和20亿的发展中世界

and the two billion in the developing world.

有一个巨大的鸿沟。

In the industrialized world,

在工业化世界，

people were healthy,

人们健康，

educated, rich,

良好教育，富有，

and they had small families.

并且有较小的家庭。

And their aspiration

他们的心愿

was to buy a car.

就是买辆车。

And in 1960, all Swedes were saving

在1960年，整个瑞典都在存钱

to try to buy a Volvo like this.

去买一辆像这样的沃尔沃。

This was the economic level at which Sweden was.

这就是当时瑞典的经济水平。

But in contrast to this,

但是相对的，

in the developing world, far away,

在遥远的发展中国家，

the aspiration of the average family there

中等家庭的愿望则是

was to have food for the day.

每天能够有食物。

They were saving

而他们存钱

to be able to buy a pair of shoes.

是想买一双鞋。

There was an enormous gap in the world

在我所长大的世界里

when I grew up.

是有一个巨大的鸿沟。

And this gap between the West and the rest

这个在西方世界和其他国家的鸿沟

has created a mindset of the world,

所创造的世界观

which we still use linguistically

就是我们今天口头上

when we talk about "the West"

提到“西方世界”

and "the Developing World."

和“发展中国家。”

But the world has changed,

但是世界已经变化了，

and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset

是时候去升级这个世界观了，

and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it.

去对世界分类，以及了解这个分类。

And that's what I'm going to show you,

这就是我将要向你们展示的。

because since 1960

因为自从1960年

what has happened in the world up to 2010

到2010年间，所发生的是

is that a staggering

一个惊人

four billion people

的四十亿人口

have been added to the world population.

加入到了世界人口中。

Just look how many.

看看有多少。

The world population has doubled

从我上学到现在

since I went to school.

世界人口已经翻倍了。

And of course, there's been economic growth in the West.

而且当然的，西方的经济也增长了。

A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy,

很多公司的经济都增长了，

so the Western population moved over to here.

所以西方的人口就移动到这。

And now their aspiration is not only to have a car.

现在人们所想的不是买辆车。

Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination

现在他们想买的是一个在遥远地方的假期

and they want to fly.

而且要飞去。

So this is where they are today.

所以他们现在在这。

And the most successful of the developing countries,

然而这里最成功的发展中国家，

they have moved on, you know,

他们也移动了，你知道的。

and they have become emerging economies, we call them.

他们成了我们口中的新兴经济体。

They are now buying cars.

现在他们也买车了。

And what happened a month ago

而且就在一个月以前

was that the Chinese company, Geely,

一个叫做吉利的中国公司

they acquired the Volvo company,

收购了沃尔沃公司。

and then finally the Swedes understood that

这样瑞典在终于意识到

something big had happened in the world.

世界发生了一些大的变化。

(Laughter)

（笑）

So there they are.

所以他们现在在这。

And the tragedy is that the two billion over here

悲惨是，在这里的二十亿

that is struggling for food and shoes,

还在为食物和鞋子挣扎，

they are still almost as poor

他们仍然和50年前

as they were 50 years ago.

一样的贫穷。

The new thing is that

区别就在

we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here,

我们有最多的30个亿在这里，

which are also becoming emerging economies,

正在成为新兴经济体，

because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated,

因为他们颇为健康，相对受过教育，

and they already also have two to three children

他们也有两到三个小孩

per woman, as those [richer also] have.

平均每个妇女。

And their aspiration now

他们现在的愿望是

is, of course, to buy a bicycle,

显然的，买一辆自行车，

and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also.

他们过一段时间还会想要摩托车。

But this is the world

但是这就是

we have today,

我们现在所有的世界。

no longer any gap.

没有鸿沟。

But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest,

但是贫穷的还是非常贫穷，

to the very richest over here is wider than ever.

和富有的相比，差距更大了。

But there is a continuous world

但是这是一个渐变的世界

from walking, biking,

从走路，自行车，

driving, flying --

到汽车，到飞行

there are people on all levels,

所有水准都有。

and most people tend to be somewhere in the middle.

大多数人是在这中间。

This is the new world we have today

这是我们在2010的

in 2010.

世界。

And what will happen in the future?

那未来会发生什么？

Well, I'm going to project

好的，我现在要穿越到

into 2050.

2050年。

I was in Shanghai recently,

我最近在上海。

and I listened to what's happening in China,

我也听到了中国所发生的事情。

and it's pretty sure that they will catch up,

显然他们会像日本一样

just as Japan did.

迎头赶上。

All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with

未来--这个会长

one to two or three percent.

一到两个百分比。

[But this second] grows with seven, eight percent, and then they will end up here.

这个会长7，8个。他们会前进到这里。

They will start flying.

他们也会开始常坐飞机。

And these

而这些

lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries,

中低收入国家，新兴经济体国家，

they will also forge forwards economically.

他们会在经济上进一步增长。

And if,

如果

but only if,

但是只有如果

we invest in the right green technology --

我们投入到正确的绿色科技 --

so that we can avoid severe climate change,

我们才能避免严重的气候变化，

and energy can still be relatively cheap --

能源才能相对的便宜 --

then they will move all the way up here.

这样他们才会都移到这里来。

And they will start to buy

他们才会开始购买

electric cars.

电子汽车。

This is what we will find there.

这就是我们在这里发现的。

So what about the poorest two billion?

那么最贫穷的那20亿呢？

What about the poorest two billion here?

最贫穷的20亿会怎么样呢？

Will they move on?

他们会怎样移动呢？

Well, here population [growth] comes in

好吧，这里人口会先增加

because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman,

因为每个妇女平均有2到3个小孩，

family planning is widely used,

家庭计划会被普遍采用，

and population growth is coming to an end.

人口增长会走到尽头。

Here [among the poorest], population is growing.

这里，人口增长。

So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades,

所以这两亿，在下面的几十年里，

increase to three billion,

会增长到30亿。

and they will thereafter

然后会继续

increase to four billion.

增长到40亿。

There is nothing --

任何事情

but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen --

除非有一个我们都没有见过的核战争

that can stop this [growth] from happening.

才能阻止这个增长。

Because we already have this [growth] in process.

因为我们已经在这个进程中了。

But if, and only if,

但是如果，只有如果

[the poorest] get out of poverty,

他们能脱离贫穷，

they get education, they get improved child survival,

他们能受教育，能提高儿童成活率，

they can buy a bicycle and a cell phone and come [to live] here,

他们才能买自行车，手机，他们会移动到这儿来，

then population growth

然后人口增长

will stop in 2050.

会在2050停止。

We cannot have people on this level

我们不能让这些人在这个水准

looking for food and shoes

还在寻找食物和鞋子，

because then we get continued population growth.

因为那样我们的人口会继续增长。

And let me show you why

现在让我来告诉你为什么

by converting back to the old-time

用我老式的

digital technology.

数码科技来告诉你们。

Here I have on the screen

在屏幕上显示的

my country bubbles.

是国家泡泡。

Every bubble is a country. The size is population.

每一个泡泡代表一个国家。大小是人口。

The colors show the continent.

颜色是不同的大洲。

The yellow on there is the Americas;

黄色是美国。

dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe;

深蓝是非洲，棕色是欧洲，

green is the Middle East

绿色是中东，

and this light blue is South Asia.

浅蓝是亚洲。

That's India and this is China. Size is population.

这是印度，这是中国。大小是人口。

Here I have children per woman:

这边我们有每个妇女所有的小孩，

two children, four children, six children, eight children --

2个，4个，6个和8个--

big families, small families.

大的家庭，小的家庭。

The year is 1960.

这是1960年。

And down here, child survival,

这里，儿童存活率，

the percentage of children surviving childhood

每个儿童存活的百分比

up to starting school:

一直到学龄前儿童。

60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90,

60%，70%，80%，90%，

and almost 100 percent, as we have today

以及几乎100%，就跟现今

in the wealthiest and healthiest countries.

在最富有和最健康的国家里一样。

But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960:

看，这就是我老师口中的1960年的世界。

one billion Western world here --

西方国家一个亿，

high child-survival, small families --

高儿童存活率，小家庭。

and all the rest,

和所有其他，

the rainbow of developing countries,

其他五彩斑斓的发展中国家，

with very large families

都有大的家庭

and poor child survival.

和很低的儿童存活率。

What has happened? I start the world. Here we go.

发生了什么？我来发动世界，开始了。

Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing?

你可以看到随这时光的流逝，儿童存活率增加了吗？

They get soap, hygiene, education,

他们有肥皂，清洁剂，教育

vaccination, penicillin

假期，和青霉素。

and then family planning. Family size is decreasing.

然后家庭计划。家庭大小降低了。

[When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease,

他们有大概90%的存活率，然后家庭变小了。

and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East

然后大多数中东的阿拉伯国家

is falling down there [to small families].

都降低到这里。

Look, Bangladesh catching up with India.

看，孟加拉国国赶上了印度。

The whole emerging world

整个新兴经济体

joins the Western world

加入了西方世界

with good child survival

有着高的儿童存活率

and small family size,

和较小的家庭大小。

but we still have the poorest billion.

但是我们还是有这最贫穷的十亿。

Can you see the poorest billion,

你可以看到那最贫穷的十亿，

those [two] boxes I had over here?

那些那边的箱子？

They are still up here.

他们还在那里。

And they still have a child survival

他们的儿童存活率还是

of only 70 to 80 percent,

70%到80%。

meaning that if you have six children born,

也就是说，如果你有6个小孩，

there will be at least four who survive

最后只有4个能存活

to the next generation.

变成下一代。

And the population will double in one generation.

而且人口会在下一代翻倍。

So the only way

所以能阻止

of really getting world population [growth] to stop

世界人口增长

is to continue to improve child survival

的唯一办法是提高儿童存活率

to 90 percent.

到90%。

That's why investments by Gates Foundation,

那就是为什么盖茨的基金，

UNICEF and aid organizations,

儿童基金会和急救机构

together with national government in the poorest countries,

和贫穷国家的国家政府

are so good;

是很好的组织。

because they are actually

因为他们实际上

helping us to reach

在帮助我们

a sustainable population size of the world.

达到一个能持续发展的人口数。

We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things.

我们可以停在90个亿，如果我们能做正确的事情。

Child survival is the new green.

儿童存活率是一个崭新的梦想。

It's only by child survival

只有通过提高儿童存活率

that we will stop population growth.

我们才能阻止人口增长。

And will it happen?

这会发生吗？

Well, I'm not an optimist,

好吧，我不是乐观主义者，

neither am I a pessimist.

我也不是悲观主义者。

I'm a very serious "possibilist."

我是一个十分严肃的“可能性主义者”

It's a new category where we take emotion apart,

这是一个新词，当我们把我们的个人情绪抛开，

and we just work analytically with the world.

我们就只专注于分析世界。

It can be done.

就可以被做到。

We can have a much more just world.

我们可以做到更多。

With green technology

伴随这绿色科技

and with investments to alleviate poverty,

和对减轻贫困的投资

and global governance,

和全球控制，

the world can become like this.

世界能变成这样。

And look at the position of the old West.

再来看看旧日的西方世界所占据的位置。

Remember when this blue box was all alone,

记住这个蓝色的箱子一直都是单独地

leading the world, living its own life.

带领这世界，生活在自己的生活中。

This will not happen [again].

这种情况不会再继续下去了。

The role of the old West in the new world

旧西方世界在新世界的地位

is to become the foundation

会是一个现代化世界

of the modern world --

的基础--

nothing more, nothing less.

不比这个多，也不比这个少。

But it's a very important role.

但是是一个十分重要的角色。

Do it well and get used to it.

做好这个角色，而且要适应这个角色。

Thank you very much.

十分谢谢你们。

(Applause)

（掌声）