Are we in control of our decisions? | Dan Ariely

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Luka Pantic

I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.

Reći ću vam nešto o iracionalnom ponašanju.

Ne vašem, naravno. Tuđem.

Not yours, of course -- other people's.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

So after being at MIT for a few years,

Neko vreme sam već na MIT-u

I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.

i shvatio sam da pisanje akademskih radova nije tako uzbudljivo.

You know, I don't know how many of those you read,

Ne znam koliko čitate te radove.

Ali nije zabavno čitati ih i nije zabavno ni pisati ih.

but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --

even worse to write.

Čak je i gore pisati ih.

Tako sam odlučio da pokušam da napišem nešto zabavnije.

So I decided to try and write something more fun.

And I came up with an idea that I would write a cookbook.

I palo mi je na pamet da napišem kuvar.

And the title for my cookbook was going to be,

A naslov za moj kuvar je trebalo da bude

"Ručanje bez mrvica: umetnost jedenja iznad sudopere".

"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.

I trebalo je to da bude pogled na život kroz kuhinju.

I was quite excited about this.

Bio sam prilično uzbuđen zbog toga.

I was going to talk a little bit about research,

Hteo sam da kažem nešto malo o istraživanju, malo o kuhinji.

a little bit about the kitchen.

Znate, toliko toga radimo u kuhinji, mislio sam da će biti interesantno.

We do so much in the kitchen, I thought this would be interesting.

I wrote a couple of chapters, and took it to MIT Press and they said,

I napisao sam nekoliko poglavlja.

Odneo sam kod izdavača na MIT-u i oni su rekli

"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."

"Simpatično. Ali nije za nas. Nađi nekog drugog."

I tried other people, and everybody said the same thing,

Probao sam kod drugih i svi su rekli istu stvar,

"Simpatično. Nije za nas."

"Cute. Not for us."

Until somebody said,

Dok neko nije rekao:

"Look, if you're serious about this,

"Vidi, ako si ozbiljan u vezi s ovim,

you have to write about your research first; you have to publish something,

prvo moraš da napišeš knjigu o svom istraživanju.

Moraš nešto da objaviš.

then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.

A onda ćeš imati priliku da napišeš nešto drugo.

If you really want to do it, you have to do it."

Ako stvarno to želiš, moraš tako da uradiš."

I said, "I don't want to write about my research.

Rekao sam: "Znate, stvarno ne želim da pišem o svom istraživanju.

I do it all day long,

To radim po ceo dan. Želim da pišem nešto drugo.

I want to write something a bit more free, less constrained."

Nešto slobodnije, manje ograničeno."

And this person was very forceful and said,

Ali ova osoba je bila prilično ubedljiva i rekla je:

"Look, that's the only way you'll ever do it."

"Vidi, to je jedini način na koji možeš to da uradiš."

So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it --"

I tako sam rekao: "OK, ako moram tako..."

I had a sabbatical.

Uzeo sam odsustvo.

I said, "I'll write about my research, if there's no other way.

Rekao sam: "Pisaću o svom istraživanju ako već ne postoji drugi način.

And then I'll get to do my cookbook."

A onda ću napisati kuvar."

So, I wrote a book on my research.

I tako sam napisao knjigu o svom istraživanju.

And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.

Ispostavilo se da je bilo prilično zabavno, na dva načina.

First of all, I enjoyed writing.

Prvo, uživao sam u pisanju.

But the more interesting thing was that I started learning from people.

Ali još interesantnije je da sam počeo da učim od ljudi.

It's a fantastic time to write,

Ovo je fantastično vreme za pisanje.

because there's so much feedback you can get from people.

Dobijate toliko povratnih informacija od ljudi.

People write to me about their personal experience,

Ljudi mi pišu o svojim ličnim iskustvima,

and about their examples, and where they disagree,

o svojim primerima, sa čim se ne slažu, i nijansama.

and their nuances.

And even being here -- I mean, the last few days,

Čak i boravak ovde.

U poslednjih nekoliko dana video sam takva opsesivna ponašanja

I've known heights of obsessive behavior

I never thought about.

koja mi nisu padala na pamet.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Which I think is just fascinating.

Mislim da je to zadivljujuće.

I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior,

Pričaću vam malo o iracionalnom ponašanju.

and I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion

Želim da počnem tako što ću vam dati primere vizuelnih iluzija

as a metaphor for rationality.

kao metafore za racionalnost.

So think about these two tables.

Razmislite o ova dva stola.

And you must have seen this illusion.

Sigurno ste videli ovu iluziju.

If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,

Kad bih vas pitao koja linija je duža, ova vertikalna na stolu sa leve strane,

or the horizontal line on the table on the right,

ili ova horizontalna na stolu sa desne strane?

which one seems longer?

Koja izgleda duža?

Da li neko vidi nešto osim toga da je ova s leve strane duža?

Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?

No, right? It's impossible.

Ne, je l' tako? Nemoguće je.

Ali lepa stvar kod vizuelnih iluzija je ta što se lako mogu prikazati greške.

But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.

So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.

Mogu staviti neke linije. Ne pomaže.

I can animate the lines.

Mogu pomeriti linije.

And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,

I ako mi verujete da nisam skraćivao linije, a nisam,

which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.

dokazao sam vam da vas oči varaju.

Now, the interesting thing about this is when I take the lines away,

E sad, interesantno je da kad sklonim linije,

it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.

kao da ništa niste naučili u prethodnom trenutku.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

You can't look at this and say, "Now I see reality as it is."

Ne možete da pogledate ovo i kažete: "OK, sad vidim stvarnost onakvu kakva je."

Right? It's impossible to overcome this sense that this is indeed longer.

Nemoguće je prevazići osećaj da je ova zaista duža.

Our intuition is really fooling us

Naša intuicija nas stvarno vara

in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.

na dosledan, predvidiv način koji se ponavlja.

and there is almost nothing we can do about it,

I skoro ništa ne možemo da uradimo povodom toga.

aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.

Osim da uzmemo lenjir i počnemo da merimo.

Here's another one. It's one of my favorite illusions.

Evo još jedne.

Ovo mi je jedna od omiljenih iluzija.

What color is the top arrow pointing to?

Na koju boju pokazuje ta gornja strelica?

Audience: Brown. Dan Ariely: Brown. Thank you.

Publika: Braon.

Braon. Hvala.

The bottom one? Yellow.

A donja? Žutu.

Turns out they're identical.

Ispostavlja se da su identične.

Can anybody see them as identical?

Da li ih neko vidi kao identične?

Very, very hard.

Veoma, veoma teško.

Mogu da prekrijem ostatak kocke,

I can cover the rest of the cube up.

If I cover the rest of the cube, you can see that they are identical.

i ako to uradim možete videti da su identične.

If you don't believe me, you can get the slide later

Ako mi ne verujete možete kasnije dobiti slajd

i izvesti neke trikove i videćete da su identične.

and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.

But again, it's the same story, that if we take the background away,

I opet ista priča,

ako ukolnimo pozadinu,

the illusion comes back.

iluzija se vraća, je l' tako?

There is no way for us not to see this illusion.

Ne postoji način da ne vidimo ovu iluziju.

I guess maybe if you're colorblind, I don't think you can see that.

Pretpostavljam da ako ste slepi za boje ne možete da je vidite.

I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.

Želim da razmislite o iluziji kao metafori.

Vision is one of the best things we do.

Vid je jedna od stvari koje najbolje radimo.

We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --

Ogroman deo našeg mozga posvećen je vidu.

bigger than dedicated to anything else.

Veći nego što je posvećen bilo čemu drugom.

We use our vision more hours of the day than anything else.

Više vremena provodimo gledajući nego što radimo bilo šta drugo.

We're evolutionarily designed to use vision.

Evolutivno smo napravljeni da gledamo.

And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,

A ako ovakve predvidive greške koje se ponavljaju imamo u našem vidu,

which we're so good at,

u kom smo toliko dobri,

what are the chances we won't make even more mistakes

kakve su šanse da ne pravimo još veće greške

in something we're not as good at, for example, financial decision-making.

u nečemu u čemu nismo tako dobri.

Na primer, odlučivanje o finansijama.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,

To je nešto za šta nemamo evolutivni razlog.

we don't have a specialized part of the brain for,

Nemamo specijalizovani deo mozga

i ne provodimo toliko sati dnevno radeći to.

and we don't do that many hours of the day.

Tvrdim da je u tim slučajevima

The argument is in those cases,

it might be that we actually make many more mistakes.

stvar u tome da u stvari pravimo još više grešaka.

And worse -- not having an easy way to see them,

Što je još gore, nemamo jednostavan način da ih primetimo.

because in visual illusions, we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;

Jer kod vizuelnih iluzija možemo jednostavno da prikažemo greške.

in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder

Kod kognitivnih iluzija mnogo je teže

to demonstrate the mistakes to people.

ljudima pokazati greške.

So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,

Želim da vam pokažem neke kognitivne iluzije,

iluzije u vezi sa odlukama, na isti način.

or decision-making illusions, in the same way.

And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.

Ovo mi je jedan od omiljenih grafika u društvenim naukama.

It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.

Iz jednog rada Džonsona i Goldstina.

It basically shows the percentage of people who indicated

Pokazuje procenat ljudi koji su naveli

they would be interested in donating their organs.

da bi bili zainteresovani da doniraju organe.

These are different countries in Europe.

Ovo su različite zemlje u Evropi.

Možete videti dve vrste zemalja.

You basically see two types of countries:

Zemlje sa desne strane, koje doniraju mnogo.

countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;

and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,

I zemlje sa leve strane koje izgleda da doniraju malo,

or much less.

ili mnogo manje.

The question is, why?

Pitanje je: Zašto? Zašto neke zemlje daju mnogo

Why do some countries give a lot and some countries give a little?

a neke zemlje daju malo?

When you ask people this question,

Kada postavite ljudima ovo pitanje,

they usually think that it has to be about culture.

oni obično misle da to ima neke veze sa kulturom.

Koliko vam je stalo do ljudi?

How much do you care about people?

Giving organs to somebody else

Davanje svojih organa nekome

is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.

verovatno pokazuje koliko vam je stalo do društva,

koliko ste povezani.

Or maybe it's about religion.

Ili možda to ima veze sa religijom.

But if you look at this plot,

Ali ako pogledate ovaj grafik,

you can see that countries that we think about as very similar,

vidite da zemlje za koje mislimo da su slične

actually exhibit very different behavior.

zapravo pokazuju različito ponašanje.

For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,

Na primer, Švedska je skroz na desnoj strani.

and Denmark, which we think is culturally very similar,

A Danska, za koju mislimo da je po kulturi veoma slična,

is all the way on the left.

je skroz na levoj strani.

Germany is on the left, and Austria is on the right.

Nemačka je na levoj strani, a Austrija na desnoj.

The Netherlands is on the left, and Belgium is on the right.

Holandija je na levoj, a Belgija na desnoj strani.

And finally, depending on your particular version

I na kraju, zavisno od vašeg viđenja sličnosti u Evropi,

of European similarity,

you can think about the U.K. and France as either similar culturally or not,

možete misliti da su Velika Britanija i Francuska kulturno slične ili različite.

but it turns out that with organ donation, they are very different.

Ali se ispostavlja da su u pogledu donacije organa veoma različite.

By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.

Uzgred, Holandija ima interesantnu priču.

You see, the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.

Vidite kako je Holandija nekako najveća u grupi malih.

It turns out that they got to 28 percent

Došli su do 28%

after mailing every household in the country a letter,

tako što su poslali pismo svakom domaćinstvu u zemlji

begging people to join this organ donation program.

i molili ljude da se prijave za program donacije organa.

You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far."

Znate za izraz "kukanjem se ništa ne postiže."

It's 28 percent in organ donation.

Postiže se 28% u programu donacije organa.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

But whatever the countries on the right are doing,

Šta god da rade ove zemlje sa desne strane

they're doing a much better job than begging.

sigurno rade mnogo više od kukanja.

So what are they doing?

Pa šta to rade?

Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.

Ispostavilo se da je tajna u formularima koji se popunjavaju u SUP-u.

And here is the story.

Priča je sledeća.

The countries on the left have a form at the DMV

Zemlje sa leve strane imaju u SUP-u formular

that looks something like this.

koji izgleda otprilike ovako.

"Check the box below if you want to participate in the organ donor program."

Obeležite polje ako želite da se prijavite

za program donacije organa.

And what happens?

I šta se dešava?

People don't check, and they don't join.

Ljudi ne obeleže i ne prijave se.

The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,

Zemlje sa desne strane, ove što doniraju mnogo,

have a slightly different form.

imaju malo drugačiji formular.

It says, "Check the box below if you don't want to participate ..."

On glasi obeležite polje ako ne želite da se prijavite.

Interestingly enough, when people get this,

Interesantno je da, kad ljudi ovo vide, opet ne obeleže.

they again don't check, but now they join.

Ali sad se prijave.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now, think about what this means.

Razmislite šta ovo znači.

You know, we wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.

Probudimo se ujutru i osećamo da donosimo odluke.

We wake up in the morning and we open the closet;

Probudimo se ujutru i otvorimo orman

we feel that we decide what to wear.

i osećamo da odlučujemo šta ćemo da obučemo.

we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.

I otvorimo frižider i osećamo da odlučujemo o tome šta da jedemo.

What this is actually saying,

A ovo govori da mnoge od tih odluka ne zavise od nas.

is that many of these decisions are not residing within us.

They are residing in the person who is designing that form.

One zavise od osobe koja pravi taj formular.

When you walk into the DMV,

Kada uđete u SUP,

the person who designed the form will have a huge influence

osoba koja je napravila taj formular imaće ogroman uticaj

on what you'll end up doing.

na ono šta ćete uraditi.

Now, it's also very hard to intuit these results.

Takođe je veoma teško naslutiti ove rezultate.

Think about it for yourself.

Razmislite o tome.

How many of you believe

Koliko vas veruje

that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,

da, ako odete sutra da produžite dozvolu

and you went to the DMV,

u SUP

and you encountered one of these forms,

i naiđete na neki od ovih formulara,

that it would actually change your own behavior?

da bi oni promenili vaše ponašanje?

Very hard to think that it would influence us.

Veoma je teško zamisliti da bi uticali na nas.

We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."

Možemo reći: "O, ti smešni Evropljani, naravno da će uticati na njih."

But when it comes to us,

Ali kad se radi o nama,

(Smeh)

we have such a feeling that we're in the driver's seat,

mi imamo takav osećaj da smo za volanom,

imamo osećaj da imamo kontrolu,

such a feeling that we're in control and we are making the decision,

da donosimo odluku,

that it's very hard to even accept the idea

da je teško čak i prihvatiti ideju

that we actually have an illusion of making a decision,

da zapravo imamo samo iluziju donošenja odluke, a ne i stvarnu odluku.

rather than an actual decision.

Now, you might say,

Možete reći:

"These are decisions we don't care about."

"To su odluke do kojih nam nije stalo."

In fact, by definition, these are decisions

Ustvari, po definiciji,

to su odluke o nečemu što će nam se desiti kad umremo.

about something that will happen to us after we die.

How could we care about something less

Kako da nas bude briga za nešto

than about something that happens after we die?

što će nam se desiti kad umremo?

So a standard economist, somebody who believes in rationality,

Obični ekonomista, neko ko veruje u racionalnost,

would say, "You know what?

rekao bi: "Znate šta?

The cost of lifting the pencil and marking a "V" is higher

Cena podizanja olovke i obeležavanja polja

than the possible benefit of the decision,

je viša od moguće dobiti od odluke."

so that's why we get this effect."

Zato dobijamo ovaj efekat.

(Laughter)

Ali, ustvari, nije zato što je lako.

But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.

It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.

Ne zato što je trivijalno. Ne zato što nam nije stalo.

It's the opposite. It's because we care.

Upravo suprotno.

Stalo nam je do toga.

It's difficult and it's complex.

Teško je i složeno.

And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.

I toliko je složeno da ne znamo šta da radimo.

And because we have no idea what to do,

I zato što nemamo ideju šta da radimo,

we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.

mi samo uzmemo nešto što je već odabrano za nas.

I'll give you one more example.

Daću vam još jedan primer ovoga.

This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Shafir.

Ovo je iz rada Redelmajera i Šefera.

And they said, "Would this effect also happens to experts?

Oni kažu: "Ovo se dešava i stručnjacima,

People who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,

ljudima koji su dobro plaćeni, iskusni u svojim odlukama,

and who make a lot of them?"

koji to puno rade."

I uzeli su grupu lekara opšte prakse.

And they took a group of physicians.

They presented to them a case study of a patient.

Pokazali su im nalaze nekog pacijenta.

They said, "Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.

To je pacijent od 67 godina, zemljoradnik.

He's been suffering from right hip pain for a while."

Već neko vreme ima bolove u desnom kuku.

And then, they said to the physicians,

I rekli su lekaru:

"You decided a few weeks ago

"Pre nekoliko nedelja odlučili ste

that nothing is working for this patient.

da ništa ne pomaže ovom pacijentu.

All these medications, nothing seems to be working.

Svi ovi lekovi i izgleda da ništa ne deluje.

So you refer the patient for hip replacement therapy.

Pa ste uputili pacijenta na terapiju veštačkog kuka.

Hip replacement. Okay?"

Na ugrađivanje veštačkog kuka. OK?"

So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.

I tako je pacijent na putu da mu se zameni kuk.

Then they said to half of the physicians,

Onda su polovini lekara rekli:

"Yesterday, you reviewed the patient's case,

"Juče ste ponovo pogledali slučaj ovog pacijenta

and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.

i shvatili da ste zaboravili da isprobate jedan lek.

You did not try ibuprofen.

Niste probali ibuprofen.

What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?

Šta ćete uraditi?

Da li ćete vratiti pacijenta i probati ibuprofen?

Or do you let him go and have hip replacement?"

Ili ćete ga pustiti da ode na operaciju zamene kuka?"

Well, the good news is that most physicians in this case

Dobra vest je da su skoro svi lekari iz ove studije

decided to pull the patient and try ibuprofen.

odlučili da vrate pacijenta i probaju ibuprofen.

Very good for the physicians.

Vrlo dobro za lekare.

To the other group of physicians, they said,

Drugoj grupi lekara rečeno je:

"Yesterday when you reviewed the case, you discovered there were two medications

"Juče, kada ste ponovo razmatrali ovaj slučaj,

otkrili ste da još niste isprobali dva leka,

you didn't try out yet -- ibuprofen and piroxicam."

ibuprofen i piroksikam."

I rekli su im: "Imate dva leka koja niste isprobali. Šta ćete uraditi?

You have two medications you didn't try out yet.

What do you do? You let him go, or you pull him back?

Pustićete pacijenta ili ga vratiti?

And if you pull him back, do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"

I ako ga vratite, da li ćete probati ibuprofen ili piroksikam? Koji od ta dva?"

Now, think of it:

Razmislite sada.

This decision makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement,

Ovde je lako odlučiti da pustimo pacijenta na operaciju kuka.

but pulling him back, all of the sudden it becomes more complex.

Ali vraćanje odjednom postaje mnogo složenije.

There is one more decision.

Postoji još jedna odluka.

What happens now?

Šta se događa sada?

The majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go

Većina lekara sada bira da pusti pacijenta

for a hip replacement.

na operaciju ugradnje veštačkog kuka.

I hope this worries you, by the way --

Nadam se da vas ovo zabrinjava...

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

when you go to see your physician.

kada odete kod svog lekara.

The thing is that no physician would ever say,

Radi se o tome da nijedan lekar neće nikada reći:

"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement. Let's go for hip replacement."

"Piroksikam, iburpofen, veštački kuk.

Može veštački kuk."

But the moment you set this as the default,

Ali u trenutku kad se tako nešto podrazumeva,

it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.

to ima ogroman uticaj na to šta će ljudi na kraju uraditi.

I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.

Daću vam još par primera iracionalnog odlučivanja.

Imagine I give you a choice:

Zamislite da vam dam sledeći izbor.

Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome, all expenses paid --

Da li želite da idete na vikend u Rim?

Svi troškovi plaćeni,

hotel, transportation, food, a continental breakfast, everything --

hotel, prevoz, hrana, doručak,

kontinentalni doručak, sve.

or a weekend in Paris?

Ili vikend u Parizu?

Now, weekend in Paris, weekend in Rome -- these are different things.

E sad, vikend u Parizu i vikend u Rimu su različite stvari.

They have different food, different culture, different art.

Hrana je drugačija, kultura, umetnost je drugačija.

Sad zamislite da sam ovome dodao izbor

Imagine I added a choice to the set that nobody wanted.

koji niko ne želi.

Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,

Zamislite da sam rekao: "Vikend u Rimu,

a weekend in Paris,

vikend u Parizu ili da vam ukradu kola?"

or having your car stolen?"

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,

To je smešno,

jer, zašto bi krađa vaših kola u ovom izboru uticala na nešto?

in this set, influence anything?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But what if the option to have your car stolen was not exactly like this?

Ali šta ako opcija da vam ukradu kola

nije baš ovakva.

What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,

Šta ako imate put u Rim, sa plaćenim troškovima,

transportation, breakfast,

prevoz, doručak.

but it doesn't include coffee in the morning?

Ali ne uključuje kafu ujutru.

If you want coffee, you have to pay for it yourself, it's two euros 50.

Ako želite kafu morate sami da platite, 2.50€.

(Laughter)

U nekim slučajevima,

Now in some ways,

given that you can have Rome with coffee,

s obzirom da možete imati Rim sa kafom,

why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?

zašto biste uopšte želeli Rim bez kafe?

It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.

To je kao da vam ukradu kola, to je lošija opcija.

But guess what happened?

Ali pogodite šta se desilo.

The moment you add Rome without coffee,

Čim dodate Rim bez kafe,

Rome with coffee becomes more popular, and people choose it.

Rim sa kafom postane popularniji.

I ljudi ga biraju.

The fact that you have Rome without coffee

Činjenica da imate Rim bez kafe

čini Rim sa kafom boljom opcijom.

makes Rome with coffee look superior,

and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.

I ne samo u odnosu na Rim bez kafe, nego i u odnosu na Pariz.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Here are two examples of this principle.

Evo dva primera ovog principa.

This was an ad in The Economist a few years ago

Ovo je bio oglas u Ekonomistu pre nekoliko godina,

that gave us three choices:

koji je nudio tri izbora.

an online subscription for 59 dollars,

Online pretplatu za 59 dolara.

a print subscription for 125 dollars,

Štampanu pretplatu za 125 dolara.

or you could get both for 125.

Ili obe, za 125 dolara.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

Now I looked at this, and I called up The Economist,

Video sam ovo i pozvao Ekonomist.

and I tried to figure out what they were thinking.

Pokušao sam da shvatim šta su mislili.

And they passed me from one person to another to another,

Prebacivali su me sa jedne osobe na drugu,

until eventually I got to the person who was in charge of the website,

dok konačno nisam dobio osobu koja je zadužena za sajt.

and I called them up, and they went to check what was going on.

Nazvao sam je, i ona je otišla da proveri o čemu se radi.

The next thing I know, the ad is gone, no explanation.

Sledeće što se desilo je da je oglas nestao.

Bez objašnjenja.

So I decided to do the experiment

Tako sam odlučio da sprovedem ovaj eksperiment

that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.

za koji bih voleo da ga je Ekonomist uradio sa mnom.

I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.

Uzeo sam ovaj oglas i dao ga grupi od 100 studenata na MIT-u.

I said, "What would you choose?"

Pitao sam: "Šta biste izabrali?"

These are the market shares -- most people wanted the combo deal.

Ovo su tržišne cene, većina je želela kombinaciju.

Thankfully, nobody wanted the dominant option.

Srećom niko nije želeo dominantnu opciju.

That means our students can read.

To znači da naši studenti umeju da čitaju.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But now, if you have an option that nobody wants,

Ali ako imate opciju koju niko ne želi

you can take it off, right?

možete je ukloniti, zar ne?

So I printed another version of this,

Odštampao sam novu verziju ovoga

where I eliminated the middle option.

u kojoj sam eliminisao srednju opciju.

I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happened:

Dao sam je novoj grupi od 100 studenata.

Evo šta se desilo.

Now the most popular option became the least popular,

Sada je najpopularnija opcija postala najmanje popularna,

and the least popular became the most popular.

a najmanje popularna postala je najpopularnija.

What was happening was the option that was useless,

Desilo se da je opcija koja je bila beskorisna,

in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.

u sredini, bila beskorisna u smislu da je niko nije želeo.

But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out

Ali nije bila beskorisna

u smislu da je pomagala ljudima da shvate šta žele.

what they wanted.

In fact, relative to the option in the middle,

Zapravo, u odnosu na opciju u sredini,

which was get only the print for 125,

koja je davala samo štampano izdanje za 125 dolara,

the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.

štampano i internet izdanje za 125 bila je fantastična ponuda.

And as a consequence, people chose it.

I tako su ljudi to i birali.

The general idea here, by the way,

Glavna ideja ovde je

is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.

da mi u stvari ne znamo uopšte šta želimo.

And because we don't know our preferences that well,

I zato što ne znamo tako dobro šta želimo,

podložni smo svim ovim uticajima spoljnih sila.

we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:

the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.

Podrazumevanim, određenim opcijama koje nam se predstavljaju, i tako dalje.

One more example of this.

Još jedan primer ovoga.

People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,

Ljudi veruju da, kad se radi o fizičkoj privlačnosti,

we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,

kad nekoga vidimo znamo odmah da li nam se dopada ili ne.

if we're attracted or not.

Da li nas privlači ili ne.

This is why we have these four-minute dates.

Zato imamo one sastanke u 4 minuta.

So I decided to do this experiment with people.

Tako sam odlučio da sprovedem ovaj eksperiment sa ljudima.

I'll show you images here, no real people, but the experiment was with people.

Vama ću pokazati slike ljudi, ne prave ljude.

Eksperiment je bio sa ljudima.

I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.

Pokazao sam nekim ljudima sliku Toma i sliku Džerija.

and I said, "Who do you want to date?

I pitao: "S kim biste voleli da izađete, aa Tomom ili Džerijem?"

Tom or Jerry?"

But for half the people, I added an ugly version of Jerry.

Ali za polovinu ljudi dodao sam ružnu verziju Džerija.

I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.

Uzeo sam fotošop i napravio Džerija malo manje privlačnim.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

For the other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.

Za druge ljude, dodao sam ružnu verziju Toma.

And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom

Pitanje je bilo, da li će ružni Džeri i ružni Tom,

help their respective, more attractive brothers?

pomoći svojoj prethodnoj, privlačnijoj braći?

The answer was absolutely yes.

Odgovor je bio apsolutno da.

When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.

Kad je tu bio ružni Džeri, Džeri je bio popularan.

When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.

Kad je tu bio i ružni Tom, Tom je bio popularan.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This of course has two very clear implications

Ovo naravno ima dve veoma jasne implikacije

for life in general.

na život uopšte.

If you ever go bar-hopping, who do you want to take with you?

Ako idete u izlazak po kafićima, koga želite da povedete sa sobom?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.

Želite malo ružniju verziju sebe.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Similar, but slightly uglier.

Sličnu. Sličnu, ali malo ružniju.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The second point, or course, is that if somebody invites you to bar hop,

Druga stvar je, naravno, ta

da ako vas neko drugi pozove, onda znate šta misli o vama.

you know what they think about you.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

Now you get it.

Sada kapirate.

What is the general point?

Šta je glavna poenta?

Poenta je da kada razmišljamo o ekonomiji,

The general point is that,

when we think about economics, we have this beautiful view of human nature.

imamo divan pogled na ljudsku prirodu.

"What a piece of work is a man! How noble in reason!"

"Kakvo je remek delo čovek! Kako je plemenit umom!"

We have this view of ourselves, of others.

Ovako vidimo sebe i druge.

The behavioral economics perspective is slightly less "generous" to people;

Perspektiva bihejvioralne ekonomije

je malo manje blagonaklona prema ljudima.

in fact, in medical terms,

U stvari, u medicinskim terminima, ovako izgledamo.

that's our view.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But there is a silver lining.

Ali postoji svetlo na kraju tunela.

To svetlo je, po mom mišljenju,

The silver lining is, I think,

ono zbog čega je bihejvioralna ekonomija interesantna i uzbudljiva.

kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.

Are we Superman, or are we Homer Simpson?

Da li smo Supermen ili Homer Simpson?

When it comes to building the physical world,

Kad se radi o izgradnji fizičkog sveta,

we kind of understand our limitations.

donekle su nam jasna naša ograničenja.

We build steps.

Gradimo stepenice

And we build these things that not everybody can use, obviously.

i pravimo ove stvari koje očigledno ne zna svako da koristi.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

We understand our limitations,

Razumemo svoja ograničenja i obilazimo ih.

and we build around them.

But for some reason, when it comes to the mental world,

Ali iz nekog razloga, kad se radi o mentalnom svetu,

when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stock markets,

kad pravimo stvari kao što su zdravstveni sistem

ili penzionisanje ili berze,

we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.

nekako zaboravimo ideju da smo ograničeni.

I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations

Mislim da, kad bismo razumeli naša kognitivna ograničenja

in the same way we understand our physical limitations,

na isti način na koji razumemo naša fizička ograničenja,

even though they don't stare us in the face the same way,

iako nam ne stoje pred nosom na isti način,

we could design a better world, and that, I think,

mogli bismo da napravimo bolji svet.

I to je, mislim i nada ovoga.

is the hope of this thing.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo

(Applause)

(Aplauz)