Are we in control of our decisions? | Dan Ariely

Prevoditelj: Dijana Ivezic Recezent: Tajni Prevodilac

I'll tell you a little bit about irrational behavior.

Ispričat ću vam nešto o iracionalnom ponašanju.

Not yours, of course -- other people's.

Naravno, ne vašem. Drugih ljudi.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

So after being at MIT for a few years,

Nakon nekoliko godina boravka na MIT-u,

I realized that writing academic papers is not that exciting.

shvatio sam da pisanje akademskih članaka i nije baš tako uzbudljivo.

You know, I don't know how many of those you read,

Ne znam koliko ste ih pročitali,

ali nije ih zabavno čitati, a vrlo često ni pisati.

but it's not fun to read and often not fun to write --

even worse to write.

Pisati je još gore.

So I decided to try and write something more fun.

Tako sam odlučio pokušati napisati nešto zabavnije.

And I came up with an idea that I would write a cookbook.

Palo mi je na pamet napisati kuharicu

And the title for my cookbook was going to be,

čiji je naslov trebao biti

"Jesti bez mrvica: Umijeće jedenja iznad sudopera"

"Dining Without Crumbs: The Art of Eating Over the Sink."

(smijeh)

(Laughter)

And it was going to be a look at life through the kitchen.

To je trebao biti pogled na život kroz kuhinju

I was quite excited about this.

i zaista sam bio uzbuđen u vezi toga. Namjeravao sam malo

I was going to talk a little bit about research,

govoriti o istraživanju, a malo o kuhinji.

a little bit about the kitchen.

Znate, toliko toga radimo u kuhinji, pa sam mislio da bi to moglo biti zanimljivo.

We do so much in the kitchen, I thought this would be interesting.

Napisao sam nekoliko poglavlja

I wrote a couple of chapters, and took it to MIT Press and they said,

i odnio ih u MIT Press gdje su rekli:

"Zgodno, ali nije za nas. Potražite nekog drugog."

"Cute, but not for us. Go and find somebody else."

I tried other people, and everybody said the same thing,

Pokušao sam drugdje i svi su mi rekli isto:

"Zgodno, ali ne za nas."

"Cute. Not for us."

Until somebody said,

Sve dok netko nije rekao:

"Look, if you're serious about this,

"Gledajte, ako ste ozbiljni u vezi ovoga,

you have to write about your research first; you have to publish something,

najprije morate napisati knjigu o svom istraživanju. Morate nešto objaviti,

then you'll get the opportunity to write something else.

a onda ćete dobiti priliku pisati nešto drugo.

Ako to zbilja želite, morat ćete tako učiniti."

If you really want to do it, you have to do it."

Pa sam rekao: "Znate, ja ne želim pisati o svom istraživanju.

I said, "I don't want to write about my research.

I do it all day long,

To radim po cijele dane. Želim pisati nešto drugo.

I want to write something a bit more free, less constrained."

Nešto malo slobodnije, manje ograničeno.

And this person was very forceful and said,

No, ta je osoba bila prilično ustrajna i rekla:

"Look, that's the only way you'll ever do it."

"Gledajte, to je jedini način na koji možete uspjeti."

So I said, "Okay, if I have to do it --"

Rekao sam: "OK, ako baš moram..."

I had a sabbatical.

Uzeo sam slobodnu godinu i rekao "Pisat ću o svom istraživanju

I said, "I'll write about my research, if there's no other way.

ako nema drugog načina. A onda ću napisati kuharicu."

And then I'll get to do my cookbook."

I tako sam napisao knjigu o svom istraživanju.

So, I wrote a book on my research.

Ispalo je prilično zabavno, na dva načina.

And it turned out to be quite fun in two ways.

First of all, I enjoyed writing.

Prije svega, uživao sam pišući.

But the more interesting thing was that I started learning from people.

No, zanimljivija stvar je bila ta

da sam počeo učiti od drugih ljudi.

It's a fantastic time to write,

Ovo je sjajno vrijeme za pisanje

because there's so much feedback you can get from people.

jer vam ljudi mogu dati puno povratnih informacija.

People write to me about their personal experience,

Ljudi mi pišu o svom osobnom iskustvu

and about their examples, and where they disagree,

o vlastitim primjerima, s čime se ne slažu

and their nuances.

i slično.

And even being here -- I mean, the last few days,

Čak i dok sam ovdje, jer mi se čini da sam u zadnjih par dana

I've known heights of obsessive behavior

spoznao stvarne mogućnosti opsesivnog ponašanja

I never thought about.

na kakve nisam ni pomišljao.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Which I think is just fascinating.

Mislim da je to očaravajuće.

I will tell you a little bit about irrational behavior,

Reći ću vam nešto o iracionalnom ponašanju

and I want to start by giving you some examples of visual illusion

i započet ću primjerima nekih optičkih iluzija

as a metaphor for rationality.

kao metaforama za racionalnost.

So think about these two tables.

Razmislite o ova dva stola.

And you must have seen this illusion.

Sigurno ste već vidjeli ovu iluziju.

If I asked you what's longer, the vertical line on the table on the left,

Kada bih vas pitao što je dulje: okomita linija stola na lijevoj strani

ili vodoravna linija stola na desnoj strani?

or the horizontal line on the table on the right,

which one seems longer?

Koja se čini duljom?

Can anybody see anything but the left one being longer?

Vidi li itko drukčije nego da je lijeva dulja?

No, right? It's impossible.

Ne, zar ne? To je nemoguće.

But the nice thing about visual illusion is we can easily demonstrate mistakes.

No, dobra stvar u vezi optičkih iluzija je da lako možemo pokazati greške

So I can put some lines on; it doesn't help.

pa tako mogu dodati crte, ali ne pomažu.

I can animate the lines.

Mogu animirati crte

And to the extent you believe I didn't shrink the lines,

sve do te mjere da mislite da ih nisam smanjio,

which I didn't, I've proven to you that your eyes were deceiving you.

što ni nisam, ali sam dokazao da vas vaše oči varaju.

Now, the interesting thing about this is when I take the lines away,

Zanimljivo je to da

kada maknem ove crte

it's as if you haven't learned anything in the last minute.

ispada kao da ništa niste naučili u protekloj minuti.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

You can't look at this and say, "Now I see reality as it is."

Ne možete pogledati ovo i reći "OK, sada vidim stvarnost takvu kakva je."

Right? It's impossible to overcome this sense that this is indeed longer.

Točno? Nemoguće je nadvladati osjećaj

da je ovo zbilja dulje.

Our intuition is really fooling us

Naša nas intuicija svaki put iznova prevari na ponavljajući, predvidljiv i dosljedan način.

in a repeatable, predictable, consistent way.

and there is almost nothing we can do about it,

Ne možemo učiniti ništa u vezi s tim

aside from taking a ruler and starting to measure it.

osim uzeti ravnalo i početi mjeriti.

Here's another one. It's one of my favorite illusions.

Evo još jedne. Ovo je jedna od mojih omiljenih iluzija.

What color is the top arrow pointing to?

Na koju boju pokazuje gornja strelica?

Smeđu. Hvala vam.

Audience: Brown. Dan Ariely: Brown. Thank you.

A donja? Na žutu.

The bottom one? Yellow.

Ispada da su identične.

Turns out they're identical.

Can anybody see them as identical?

Vidi li itko da su identične?

Very, very hard.

Vrlo, vrlo teško.

I can cover the rest of the cube up.

Mogu pokriti ostatak kocke

If I cover the rest of the cube, you can see that they are identical.

i ako to učinim, vidite da su identične.

If you don't believe me, you can get the slide later

Ako mi ne vjerujete, možete poslije dobiti slide

i malo čarobirati pa vidjeti da su zbilja identične.

and do some arts and crafts and see that they're identical.

But again, it's the same story, that if we take the background away,

No, to je opet ista priča.

Ako maknemo podlogu,

the illusion comes back.

iluzija se vraća, zar ne?

There is no way for us not to see this illusion.

Ne možemo ne vidjeti ovu iluziju.

I guess maybe if you're colorblind, I don't think you can see that.

Možda ju ne vidite jedino ako ste daltonist.

I want you to think about illusion as a metaphor.

Želio bih da iluziju shvatite kao metaforu.

Vision is one of the best things we do.

Vid je jedna od najboljih stvari koju imamo.

We have a huge part of our brain dedicated to vision --

Ogroman dio mozga posvećen je vidu,

bigger than dedicated to anything else.

više nego ičemu drugome.

We use our vision more hours of the day than anything else.

Bavimo se gledanjem više sati dnevno nego ijednom drugom aktivnošću

We're evolutionarily designed to use vision.

i evolucijski smo osmišljeni da bismo gledali.

And if we have these predictable repeatable mistakes in vision,

Ako u vidu, u kojem smo tako dobri, stalno ponavljamo

which we're so good at,

jedne te iste predvidljive pogreške,

what are the chances we won't make even more mistakes

kolike su šanse da ne radimo još veće pogreške

in something we're not as good at, for example, financial decision-making.

u nečemu u čemu nismo toliko dobri,

naprimjer, u financijskom odlučivanju

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Something we don't have an evolutionary reason to do,

za koje nemamo evolucijske predispozicije,

we don't have a specialized part of the brain for,

nemamo specijalizirani dio mozga

i ne radimo to veći dio dana.

and we don't do that many hours of the day.

U tim slučajevima, argument može biti

The argument is in those cases,

it might be that we actually make many more mistakes.

da upravo zato radimo puno više pogrešaka.

And worse -- not having an easy way to see them,

Što je još gore, ne možemo ih samo tako prepoznati

because in visual illusions, we can easily demonstrate the mistakes;

jer kod optičkih iluzija možemo lako pokazati greške

in cognitive illusion it's much, much harder

dok je kod kognitivnih iluzija puno, puno teže

to demonstrate the mistakes to people.

ljudima pokazati pogreške.

So I want to show you some cognitive illusions,

Želim vam pokazati neke kognitivne iluzije

or decision-making illusions, in the same way.

odnosno iluzije donošenja odluka.

And this is one of my favorite plots in social sciences.

Ovo je jedna od mojih omiljenih tema u društvenim znanostima,

It's from a paper by Johnson and Goldstein.

a dio je članka Johnsona i Goldsteina.

It basically shows the percentage of people who indicated

Ta iluzija zapravo pokazuje

postotak ljudi koji su izrazili želju

they would be interested in donating their organs.

za doniranjem organa

These are different countries in Europe.

u različitim europskim državama.

You basically see two types of countries:

Zapravo vidite dvije vrste država:

countries on the right, that seem to be giving a lot;

Države s desne strane, koje naizgled puno doniraju

and countries on the left that seem to giving very little,

i države s lijeve strane koje doniraju vrlo malo

or much less.

ili puno manje od prvih.

The question is, why?

Pitanje je zašto? Zašto neke zemlje doniraju u velikoj mjeri,

Why do some countries give a lot and some countries give a little?

a neke vrlo malo?

When you ask people this question,

Kada postavite ovo pitanje,

they usually think that it has to be about culture.

ljudi obično misle da je to vezano uz kulturu.

Zar ne? Koliko vam je stalo do ljudi?

How much do you care about people?

Giving organs to somebody else

Doniranje organa je vjerojatno pitanje

is probably about how much you care about society, how linked you are.

brige o društvu i povezanosti.

Or maybe it's about religion.

A možda je i pitanje vjere.

But if you look at this plot,

Ako pogledate ovaj graf,

you can see that countries that we think about as very similar,

možete vidjeti da se države koje smatramo sličnima

actually exhibit very different behavior.

zapravo vrlo različito ponašaju.

For example, Sweden is all the way on the right,

Naprimjer, Švedska je sasvim desno,

and Denmark, which we think is culturally very similar,

a Danska, koju smatramo kulturološki vrlo sličnom,

is all the way on the left.

je sasvim lijevo.

Germany is on the left, and Austria is on the right.

Njemačka je lijevo, a Austrija desno;

The Netherlands is on the left, and Belgium is on the right.

Nizozemska je lijevo, a Belgija desno;

And finally, depending on your particular version

i konačno, ovisno o vašoj osobnoj verziji

of European similarity,

europske sličnosti možete Veliku Britaniju i Francusku

you can think about the U.K. and France as either similar culturally or not,

smatrati kulturološki sličnom ili ne, ali ispada

but it turns out that with organ donation, they are very different.

da su u doniranju organa vrlo različite.

By the way, the Netherlands is an interesting story.

Vrlo je zanimljiva priča u vezi Nizozemske.

You see, the Netherlands is kind of the biggest of the small group.

Ona je najveća unutar male grupe,

It turns out that they got to 28 percent

ispada da su dobili 28%

after mailing every household in the country a letter,

nakon što su svakom kućanstvu u državi poslali pismo

begging people to join this organ donation program.

s molbom za učlanjenje u program doniranja organa.

You know the expression, "Begging only gets you so far."

No, moliti ne znači i dobiti.

It's 28 percent in organ donation.

Dakle, 28% bi doniralo organe.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

But whatever the countries on the right are doing,

Što god radile države s desne strane,

they're doing a much better job than begging.

sigurno je bolje nego samo moliti.

So what are they doing?

Što one rade?

Turns out the secret has to do with a form at the DMV.

Ispostavilo se da je tajna u obrascu za popunjavanje.

And here is the story.

Priča ide ovako:

The countries on the left have a form at the DMV

Države s lijeva imaju obrazac

that looks something like this.

koji izgleda otprilike ovako.

"Check the box below if you want to participate in the organ donor program."

Označite kućicu ako želite sudjelovati

u programu doniranja organa.

And what happens?

Što se događa?

People don't check, and they don't join.

Ljudi ju ne označe i ne sudjeluju.

The countries on the right, the ones that give a lot,

Države s desna, one koje puno doniraju,

have a slightly different form.

imaju malo drukčiji obrazac.

It says, "Check the box below if you don't want to participate ..."

U njemu piše: označite kućicu ako ne želite sudjelovati.

Interestingly enough, when people get this,

Zanimljivo je da, kada ljudi dobiju takav obrazac,

opet ne označe kućicu - ali sada sudjeluju.

they again don't check, but now they join.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Now, think about what this means.

Razmislite što to znači.

You know, we wake up in the morning and we feel we make decisions.

Ujutro se probudimo i osjećamo da donosimo odluke.

We wake up in the morning and we open the closet;

Probudimo se, otvorimo ormar

we feel that we decide what to wear.

i osjećamo da sami odlučujemo što ćemo obući.

we open the refrigerator and we feel that we decide what to eat.

Onda otvorimo frižider i osjećamo da sami odlučujemo što ćemo jesti.

What this is actually saying,

Sve to zapravo znači da

is that many of these decisions are not residing within us.

velik dio ovih odluka ne dolazi iz nas samih,

They are residing in the person who is designing that form.

već od osobe koja je osmislila taj obrazac.

When you walk into the DMV,

Kada uđete u DMV,

the person who designed the form will have a huge influence

osoba koja je osmislila obrazac imat će ogroman utjecaj

on what you'll end up doing.

na vaše ponašanje.

Now, it's also very hard to intuit these results.

Vrlo je teško predvidjeti te rezultate. Razmislite samo

Think about it for yourself.

How many of you believe

koliko vas vjeruje da,

that if you went to renew your license tomorrow,

ako biste sutra krenuli produžiti vozačku dozvolu,

and you went to the DMV,

otišli u DMV

and you encountered one of these forms,

i susreli se s jednim od tih obrazaca,

that it would actually change your own behavior?

da bi oni zapravo promijenili vaše ponašanje?

Very hard to think that it would influence us.

Vrlo je teško zamisliti da bi to imalo ikakav utjecaj na nas.

We can say, "Oh, these funny Europeans, of course it would influence them."

Možemo reći: "Oh, ti smiješni Europljani. Naravno da bi utjecali na njih."

No, kada smo mi u pitanju,

But when it comes to us,

we have such a feeling that we're in the driver's seat,

imamo osjećaj da smo na mjestu vozača,

i da držimo sve pod kontrolom

such a feeling that we're in control and we are making the decision,

i da mi donosimo odluku.

that it's very hard to even accept the idea

Vrlo je teško prihvatiti ideju

da zapravo imamo iluziju

that we actually have an illusion of making a decision,

donošenja odluke, umjesto samog odlučivanja.

rather than an actual decision.

Now, you might say,

Sada biste mogli reći:

"These are decisions we don't care about."

"To su odluke za koje nas nije briga."

In fact, by definition, these are decisions

Zapravo su to po definiciji odluke

about something that will happen to us after we die.

o nečemu što će nam se dogoditi nakon što umremo.

How could we care about something less

Zašto bi nas bilo briga za nešto

than about something that happens after we die?

što će se dogoditi nakon što umremo?

So a standard economist, somebody who believes in rationality,

Prosječni bi ekonomist, netko tko vjeruje u racionalnost,

would say, "You know what?

rekao: "Znate što? Trošak uzimanja olovke i stavljanja kvačice

The cost of lifting the pencil and marking a "V" is higher

veći je od moguće koristi

than the possible benefit of the decision,

od ove odluke."

so that's why we get this effect."

Tako nastaje ovaj efekt.

(Laughter)

Zapravo, nije samo jednostavnost u pitanju,

But, in fact, it's not because it's easy.

It's not because it's trivial. It's not because we don't care.

nije tako trivijalno, nije da nam nije stalo.

It's the opposite. It's because we care.

Upravo je suprotno - zato što nam je stalo.

It's difficult and it's complex.

Teško je i složeno,

And it's so complex that we don't know what to do.

toliko složeno da ne znamo što učiniti.

And because we have no idea what to do,

I zato što nemamo pojma što bismo,

we just pick whatever it was that was chosen for us.

jednostavno odabiremo ono što je već unaprijed određeno.

I'll give you one more example.

Dat ću vam još jedan primjer,

This is from a paper by Redelmeier and Shafir.

ovoga puta iz članka Redelmeiera i Schaefera.

And they said, "Would this effect also happens to experts?

Oni kažu: "Ovaj efekt često viđamo i kod stručnjaka,

People who are well-paid, experts in their decisions,

ljudi koji su dobro plaćeni, stručnjaka u svojim odlukama,

and who make a lot of them?"

svima se to često događa."

And they took a group of physicians.

Uzeli su grupu liječnika

They presented to them a case study of a patient.

i predstavili im slučaj jednoga pacijenta.

They said, "Here is a patient. He is a 67-year-old farmer.

Ovo je pacijent, 67-godišnji poljoprivrednik

He's been suffering from right hip pain for a while."

kojega već neko vrijeme muči bol u desnom kuku.

And then, they said to the physicians,

Tada su rekli liječnicima:

"You decided a few weeks ago

"Prije nekoliko tjedana odlučili ste

that nothing is working for this patient.

da ovom pacijentu ništa ne pomaže.

All these medications, nothing seems to be working.

Svi ti silni lijekovi, ništa ne funkcionira.

So you refer the patient for hip replacement therapy.

Predložili ste mu operaciju ugradnje umjetnog kuka.

Hip replacement. Okay?"

Dakle, umjetni kuk. OK?

So the patient is on a path to have his hip replaced.

Pacijent je u procesu pripreme za operaciju.

Then they said to half of the physicians,

Tada su polovini liječnika rekli:

"Yesterday, you reviewed the patient's case,

Jučer ste ponovno pregledali slučaj ovog pacijenta

and you realized that you forgot to try one medication.

i shvatili da ste zaboravili isprobati jedan lijek,

You did not try ibuprofen.

ibuprofen.

What do you do? Do you pull the patient back and try ibuprofen?

Što ćete učiniti? Povući pacijenta i pokušati s ibuprofenom

Or do you let him go and have hip replacement?"

ili ga pustiti da ode na ugradnju umjetnog kuka?"

Well, the good news is that most physicians in this case

Dobra vijest je da je većina liječnika u ovom slučaju

decided to pull the patient and try ibuprofen.

odlučila povući pacijenta i pokušati s ibuprofenom.

Very good for the physicians.

Vrlo dobro, liječnici.

To the other group of physicians, they said,

Drugoj grupi liječnika su rekli:

"Yesterday when you reviewed the case, you discovered there were two medications

"Jučer kada ste ponovno pregledali slučaj,

otkrili ste da niste još isprobali dva lijeka,

you didn't try out yet -- ibuprofen and piroxicam."

ibuprofen i piroksikam."

You have two medications you didn't try out yet.

Pa su rekli:"Imate dva lijeka koja još niste isprobali. Što ćete učiniti?

What do you do? You let him go, or you pull him back?

Puštate ih na operaciju ili povlačite.

And if you pull him back, do you try ibuprofen or piroxicam? Which one?"

Ako ih povučete, hoćete li probati s ibuprofenom ili piroksikamom? S kojim?

Now, think of it:

Razmislite sada o ovoj odluci.

This decision makes it as easy to let the patient continue with hip replacement,

Ona vrlo lako omogućava pacijentu nastavak ugradnje umjetnog kuka.

but pulling him back, all of the sudden it becomes more complex.

No, ako ih vratimo natrag, odjednom sve postaje puno složenije.

There is one more decision.

To je još jedna odluka.

What happens now?

Što se sada događa?

The majority of the physicians now choose to let the patient go

Sada većina liječnika odlučuje pacijenta pustiti

for a hip replacement.

na ugradnju umjetnog kuka.

I hope this worries you, by the way --

Usput, nadam se da vas ovo brine...

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

when you go to see your physician.

kada odlazite svome liječniku.

The thing is that no physician would ever say,

Stvar je u tome da nijedan liječnik ne bi rekao:

"Piroxicam, ibuprofen, hip replacement. Let's go for hip replacement."

"Piroksikam, ibuprofen, ugradnja umjetnog kuka -

biram umjetni kuk."

But the moment you set this as the default,

No, u trenutku kada je to već unaprijed određeno,

it has a huge power over whatever people end up doing.

ima veliku moć nad ljudskim ponašanjem.

I'll give you a couple of more examples on irrational decision-making.

Dat ću vam još nekoliko primjera iracionalnog odlučivanja.

Imagine I give you a choice:

Zamislite da imate sljedeći izbor:

Do you want to go for a weekend to Rome, all expenses paid --

Želite li ići u Rim za vikend?

Svi troškovi su plaćeni,

hotel, transportation, food, a continental breakfast, everything --

hotel, prijevoz, hrana, doručak,

kontinentalni doručak - sve.

or a weekend in Paris?

Ili vikend u Parizu?

Now, weekend in Paris, weekend in Rome -- these are different things.

Vikend u Parizu i vikend u Rimu su dvije sasvim različite stvari;

They have different food, different culture, different art.

drukčija je hrana, kultura, umjetnost.

Zamislite sada da sam u ponudu dodao još jednu mogućnost

Imagine I added a choice to the set that nobody wanted.

koju nitko nije želio.

Imagine I said, "A weekend in Rome,

Zamislite da sam rekao: "Vikend u Rimu,

a weekend in Paris,

vikend u Parizu ili da vam ukradu auto?"

or having your car stolen?"

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

It's a funny idea, because why would having your car stolen,

To je smiješna ideja. Zašto bi krađa automobila u ovoj kombinaciji

in this set, influence anything?

imala ikakav utjecaj?

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

But what if the option to have your car stolen was not exactly like this?

No, što ako opcija krađe automobila

nije baš ovakva.

What if it was a trip to Rome, all expenses paid,

Što ako se radi o putovanju u Rim sa plaćenim svim troškovima,

transportation, breakfast,

prijevozom i doručkom,

but it doesn't include coffee in the morning?

ali bez jutarnje kave.

If you want coffee, you have to pay for it yourself, it's two euros 50.

Ako želite kavu, morat ćete ju sami platiti 2,50 eura.

(Laughter)

Ako to gledamo tako da

Now in some ways,

given that you can have Rome with coffee,

imate opciju Rim+kava,

why would you possibly want Rome without coffee?

zašto biste željeli Rim bez kave?

It's like having your car stolen. It's an inferior option.

To je kao željeti da vam ukradu auto - to je neravnopravna opcija.

But guess what happened?

Pogodite što se dogodilo. U trenutku kada ste dodali Rim bez kave,

The moment you add Rome without coffee,

Rim s kavom postaje popularniji i ljudi biraju njega.

Rome with coffee becomes more popular, and people choose it.

The fact that you have Rome without coffee

Činjenica da postoji i Rim bez kave,

makes Rome with coffee look superior,

predstavlja Rim s kavom superiornijim

and not just to Rome without coffee -- even superior to Paris.

i to ne samo u usporedbi s Rimom bez kave, već i s Parizom.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Here are two examples of this principle.

Evo dva primjera.

This was an ad in The Economist a few years ago

Ovo je bio oglas u časopisu The Economist prije nekoliko godina

that gave us three choices:

i nudio je tri izbora:

an online subscription for 59 dollars,

online pretplatu za 59 dolara

a print subscription for 125 dollars,

pretplatu na tiskano izdanje za 125 dolara

or you could get both for 125.

ili oboje za 125 dolara.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Now I looked at this, and I called up The Economist,

Kada sam to vidio, nazvao sam u The Economist

and I tried to figure out what they were thinking.

i pokušao dokučiti o čemu to oni razmišljaju.

And they passed me from one person to another to another,

"Vozali" su me od čovjeka do čovjeka

until eventually I got to the person who was in charge of the website,

sve dok napokon nisam došao do osobe koja je bila zadužena za website.

and I called them up, and they went to check what was going on.

Pozvao sam ih i provjerili su o čemu se radilo.

The next thing I know, the ad is gone, no explanation.

Sljedeće što sam čuo je da je oglas nestao bez objašnjenja.

So I decided to do the experiment

Odlučio sam napraviti eksperiment

that I would have loved The Economist to do with me.

a volio bih da ga i The Economist isproba sa mnom.

I took this and I gave it to 100 MIT students.

Uzeo sam oglas i dao ga stotini studenata s MIT-a.

I said, "What would you choose?"

Rekao sam: "Što biste odabrali?"

These are the market shares -- most people wanted the combo deal.

To su tržišni udjeli i većina je ljudi željela kombiniranu ponudu.

Thankfully, nobody wanted the dominant option.

Srećom, nitko nije htio dominantnu opciju,

That means our students can read.

što znači da naši studenti znaju čitati.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

But now, if you have an option that nobody wants,

No, ako imate opciju koju nitko ne želi,

you can take it off, right?

možete ju maknuti, zar ne?

So I printed another version of this,

Ispisao sam drugu verziju oglasa

where I eliminated the middle option.

u kojoj sam eliminirao srednju opciju.

I gave it to another 100 students. Here is what happened:

Dao sam ga drugoj stotini studenata i pogledajte što se dogodilo.

Now the most popular option became the least popular,

Sada je najpopularnija opcija postala najmanje popularna,

and the least popular became the most popular.

i obrnuto.

What was happening was the option that was useless,

Dogodilo se to da je ona opcija koja je bila u sredini

in the middle, was useless in the sense that nobody wanted it.

bila beskorisna jer ju nitko nije želio.

But it wasn't useless in the sense that it helped people figure out

No, bila je i korisna jer je pomogla ljudima

odlučiti što žele.

what they wanted.

In fact, relative to the option in the middle,

Zapravo, u odnosu na srednju opciju,

which was get only the print for 125,

koja se odnosila isključivo na tiskano izdanje za 125 dolara,

the print and web for 125 looked like a fantastic deal.

tiskano i web izdanje zajedno za istu cijenu činilo se kao odlična ponuda.

And as a consequence, people chose it.

Naravno, ljudi su to i odabrali.

The general idea here, by the way,

Opća ideja je da zapravo

is that we actually don't know our preferences that well.

ne znamo tako dobro svoje želje.

And because we don't know our preferences that well,

Upravo zato smo podložni

svim tim vanjskim utjecajima,

we're susceptible to all of these influences from the external forces:

the defaults, the particular options that are presented to us, and so on.

unaprijed određenim postavkama, određenim opcijama koje su nam na raspolaganju itd.

One more example of this.

Još jedan primjer.

People believe that when we deal with physical attraction,

Kada je riječ o fizičkoj privlačnosti, ljudi vjeruju

we see somebody, and we know immediately whether we like them or not,

da čim nekoga ugledamo, odmah znamo sviđa li nam se ili ne,

if we're attracted or not.

privlači li nas ili ne.

This is why we have these four-minute dates.

Zbog toga postoje tzv. "speed-dates".

So I decided to do this experiment with people.

Odlučio sam napraviti eksperiment s ljudima.

I'll show you images here, no real people, but the experiment was with people.

Pokazat ću vam grafičke prikaze ljudi, ne stvarne ljude,

ali eksperiment je bio s ljudima.

I showed some people a picture of Tom, and a picture of Jerry.

Pokazao sam im Tomovu i Jerryjevu sliku i rekao:

and I said, "Who do you want to date?

"S kim želite izići, s Tomom ili Jerryjem?"

Tom or Jerry?"

But for half the people, I added an ugly version of Jerry.

Jednoj grupi ljudi sam dodao ružniju verziju Jerryja.

I took Photoshop and I made Jerry slightly less attractive.

U Photoshopu sam ga učinio malo manje privlačnim.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

For the other people, I added an ugly version of Tom.

Drugoj grupi sam dodao ružniju verziju Toma.

And the question was, will ugly Jerry and ugly Tom

Pitanje je bilo hoće li ružniji Jerry i Tom

help their respective, more attractive brothers?

biti od pomoći svojoj privlačnijoj braći.

The answer was absolutely yes.

Odgovor je bio - naravno da hoće.

When ugly Jerry was around, Jerry was popular.

Kada bih ubacio ružnijeg Jerryja, Jerry je bio popularan.

When ugly Tom was around, Tom was popular.

Kada bih dodao ružnijeg Toma, Tom je bio popularan.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

This of course has two very clear implications

To nam, naravno, govori dvije jasne stvari

for life in general.

o životu općenito.

If you ever go bar-hopping, who do you want to take with you?

Kada idete po kafićima, koga biste željeli povesti?

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

You want a slightly uglier version of yourself.

Želite svoju malo ružniju verziju.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Similar, but slightly uglier.

Vrlo sličnu, ali malo ružniju.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

The second point, or course, is that if somebody invites you to bar hop,

Druga stvar je ta da,

ako netko drugi pozove vas, znate što misli o vama.

you know what they think about you.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

Now you get it.

Sada vam je već jasno.

What is the general point?

Koja je poanta?

The general point is that,

Poanta je u tome da, kada razmišljamo o ekonomiji,

when we think about economics, we have this beautiful view of human nature.

imamo u vidu ovaj dio ljudske prirode.

"What a piece of work is a man! How noble in reason!"

"Kakvo je remek-djelo čovjek! Kako plemenit umom!"

We have this view of ourselves, of others.

Tako vidimo sebe, a i druge.

The behavioral economics perspective is slightly less "generous" to people;

Viđenje bihevioralne ekonomije

nešto je manje velikodušno prema ljudima.

in fact, in medical terms,

Zapravo, medicinski rečeno, to je naš pogled.

that's our view.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

But there is a silver lining.

No, postoji tračak nade

The silver lining is, I think,

što je i razlog zbog kojeg je

kind of the reason that behavioral economics is interesting and exciting.

bihevioralna ekonomija tako zanimljiva i uzbudljiva.

Are we Superman, or are we Homer Simpson?

Jesmo li Superman ili Homer Simpson?

Kada je riječ o izgradnji fizičkog svijeta,

When it comes to building the physical world,

we kind of understand our limitations.

donekle razumijemo svoja ograničenja.

We build steps.

Gradimo stepenice, ali i one stvari

And we build these things that not everybody can use, obviously.

koje očito ne mogu svi koristiti.

(Laughter)

(smijeh)

We understand our limitations,

Svjesni smo svojih ograničenja

and we build around them.

i krećemo se unutar njih.

But for some reason, when it comes to the mental world,

No, kada je riječ o mentalnom svijetu,

when we design things like healthcare and retirement and stock markets,

kada kreiramo stvari poput zdravstvenog i mirovinskog osiguranja i burzi,

we somehow forget the idea that we are limited.

nekako, iz nekog razloga, zaboravljamo da smo ograničeni.

I think that if we understood our cognitive limitations

Kada bismo razumjeli svoja kognitivna ograničenja

in the same way we understand our physical limitations,

na način na koji razumijemo fizička,

even though they don't stare us in the face the same way,

iako se ne susrećemo s njima na isti način,

mislim da bismo mogli osmisliti bolji svijet.

we could design a better world, and that, I think,

Tome se nadamo.

is the hope of this thing.

Thank you very much.

Puno vam hvala.

(Applause)

pljesak