The $8 billion iPod | Rob Reid

Prevodilac: Silvija Varga Lektor: Ivana Korom

The recent debate over copyright laws

Nedavna debata oko zakona o autorskim pravima

like SOPA in the United States

kao što je SOPA u Sjedinjenim Državama

and the ACTA agreement in Europe

i ACTA ugovor u Evropi

has been very emotional.

je bila vrlo emotivna.

And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning

Smatram da bi nepristrasno i kvantitativno argumentovanje

could really bring a great deal to the debate.

moglo da doprinese ovoj raspravi.

I'd therefore like to propose

Želeo bih da predložim

that we employ, we enlist,

da uposlimo, regrutujemo,

the cutting edge field of copyright math

vrhunsko polje matematike zaštite autorskih prava

whenever we approach this subject.

kada god pristupamo ovoj temi.

For instance, just recently

Na primer, nedavno

the Motion Picture Association revealed

Kinematografsko društvo Amerike je obelodanilo

that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year

da naša ekonomija gubi oko 58 milijardi dolara godišnje

to copyright theft.

zbog piraterije.

Now rather than just argue about this number,

Umesto da raspravljamo o ovom broju,

a copyright mathematician will analyze it

matematičari koji analiziraju ovaj problem

and he'll soon discover that this money

će shvatiti da je ovaj novac

could stretch from this auditorium

moguće rastegnuti od ove sale

all the way across Ocean Boulevard

preko bulevara Okean

to the Westin, and then to Mars ...

do Vestina, pa do Marsa...

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

... if we use pennies.

ukoliko koristimo penije.

Now this is obviously a powerful,

Očigledno je da je ovo veoma moćno,

some might say dangerously powerful, insight.

neki bi rekli opasno moćno.

But it's also a morally important one.

Ali je takođe etički bitno.

Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value

Jer, to nije samo hipotetička maloprodajna vrednost

of some pirated movies that we're talking about,

nekih piratizovanih filmova o kojima govorimo,

but this is actual economic losses.

ovo je zapravo pravi ekonomski gubitak.

This is the equivalent

Ovo je ekvivalent

to the entire American corn crop failing

propasti proizvodnje useva,

along with all of our fruit crops,

zajedno sa proizvodnjom voća,

as well as wheat, tobacco,

pšenice, duvana,

rice, sorghum --

riže, šećerne trske,

whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.

štagod da je šećerna trska, cele Amerike.

But identifying the actual losses to the economy

Određivanje tačnih ekonomskih gubitaka

is almost impossible to do

je gotovo nemoguće

unless we use copyright math.

ukoliko ne koristimo matematiku zaštite autorskih prava.

Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year

Prihodi muzičke industrije se smanjuju za 8 milijardi svake godine

since Napster first came on the scene.

od kako se Nepster prvi put pojavio.

So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.

To je deo onoga što tražimo.

But total movie revenues

Ukupna zarada na filmovima

across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.

preko bioskopa, kućnih videa i plati-pa-gledaj je u porastu.

And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.

Prihodi preko TV-a, satelitske i kablovske TV su takođe u porastu.

Other content markets like book publishing and radio

Druga tržišta kao izdavaštvo i radio

are also up.

su takođe u porastu.

So this small missing chunk here

Dakle, ovaj deo koji nedostaje

is puzzling.

je zbunjujuć.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Since the big content markets

Od kada su ovakva tržišta

have grown in line with historic norms,

u porastu u smislu istorijskih normi,

it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,

piraterija nije sprečila dodatnu zaradu

but copyright math tells us

ali matematika zaštite autorskih prava nam govori

it must therefore be foregone growth

da to mora da bude prepušteni rast

in a market that has no historic norms --

na tržištu koje nema istorijske norme,

one that didn't exist in the 90's.

ono koje nije postojalo pre devedesetih.

What we're looking at here

Ono što se dešava

is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.

jeste podmuklo bogaćenje na

(Laughter)

piratizovanim zvucima za telefon. (Smeh)

50 billion dollars of it a year,

50 milijardi dolara godišnje,

which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,

što je sasvim dovoljno, 30 sekundi po zvuku za telefon,

that could stretch from here

može da se razvuče odavde

to Neanderthal times.

do vremena Neandertalaca.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's true.

Istina je.

(Applause)

(aplauz)

I have Excel.

Ja posedujem Eksel.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The movie folks also tell us

Filmski radnici nam takođe govore

that our economy loses

da naša ekonomija gubi

over 370,000 jobs to content theft,

preko 370 hiljada radnih mesta zbog piraterije,

which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,

a to je mnogo kada uzmete u obzir da je 1998.

the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated

Biro za statistiku rada ukazao

that the motion picture and video industries

da je kinematografija i industrija video igara

were employing 270,000 people.

upošljavala oko 270 hiljada ljudi.

Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.

Drugi podaci govore da muzička industrija zapošljava oko 45 hiljada.

And so the job losses that came with the Internet

Gubici radnih mesta koji dolaze sa pojavom Interneta

and all that content theft,

i svom tom piraterijom,

have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.

nam ostavljaju rast nezaposlenosti u ovim industrijskim granama.

And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics

Ovo je samo jedna od mnogih začuđujućih statistika

that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.

sa kojima ovi matematičari moraju da se suočavaju svaki dan.

And some people think that string theory is tough.

Neki misle da je teorija struna teška.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.

Ovo je ključna cifra za ove matematičare.

It's the precise amount of harm

To je tačna količina štete

that comes to media companies

koju trpe medijske kuće

whenever a single copyrighted song or movie

kad god se jedna autorizovana pesma ili film

gets pirated.

piratizuju.

Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically

Holivud i Kongres su ovaj broj dobili matematički

back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages

poslednji put kada su procenjivali štetu zbog piraterije

and made this law.

i kada su skovali ovaj zakon.

Some people think this number's a little bit large,

Neki misle da je ovaj broj preterano velik,

but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts

ali matematičari koji su eksperti medijskog lobija

are merely surprised

su potpuno iznenađeni

that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.

što se ovo ne komplikuje zbog inflacije.

Now when this law first passed,

Kada je ovaj zakon prvi put donet,

the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.

tadašnji MP3 plejer je mogao da sadrži samo 10 pesama.

And it was a big Christmas hit.

I to je bila glavna stvar tog Božića.

Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want

Jer koja mala bitanga ne želi

a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.

kradenu robu vrednosti od milion dolara u svom džepu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,

Današnji iPod može da sadrži i do 40 hiljada pesama,

which is to say eight billion dollars-worth

što je 8 milijardi dolara

of stolen media.

piratizovanog sadržaja.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Or about 75,000 jobs.

Iliti 75 hiljada radnih mesta.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Now you might find copyright math strange,

Možda će vam se ovakva matematika učiniti čudnom,

but that's because it's a field

ali to je zato što je ona jedno polje

that's best left to experts.

koje je najbolje prepustiti ekspertima.

So that's it for now.

To bi bilo to za sada.

I hope you'll join me next time

Nadam se da ćete mi se pridružiti sledeći put

when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry

kada ću se takođe osloniti na nauku

into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.

procenjujući štetu piratizovane vanzemaljske muzike na američku ekonomiju.

Thank you very much.

Hvala najlepše.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)