The $8 billion iPod | Rob Reid

Translator: Matej Divjak Reviewer: Nika Kotnik

The recent debate over copyright laws

Nedavna debata o zakonodaji o avtorskih pravicah,

like SOPA in the United States

kot je SOPA v ZDA in ACTA v Evropi, je bila nadvse čustvena.

and the ACTA agreement in Europe

has been very emotional.

And I think some dispassionate, quantitative reasoning

Zato mislim, da bi neprizadet in kvantitativen pogled

could really bring a great deal to the debate.

bistveno prispeval k temu dialogu.

I'd therefore like to propose

Zato bi rad predlagal, da uporabimo

that we employ, we enlist,

the cutting edge field of copyright math

popolnoma novo znanost matematike avtorskih pravic,

whenever we approach this subject.

vsakič, ko govorimo o tem področju.

For instance, just recently

Na primer, pred kratkim je organizacija

the Motion Picture Association revealed

Motion Picture Association razkrila,

that our economy loses 58 billion dollars a year

da naše gospodarstvo na leto izgubi 58 milijard USD

to copyright theft.

zaradi kraje intelektualne lastnine.

Now rather than just argue about this number,

Namesto, da bi se prerekal o tej številki,

a copyright mathematician will analyze it

jo matematik avtorskih pravic raje analizira

and he'll soon discover that this money

in kmalu ugotovi, da bi se lahko ta vsota raztezala od te dvorane

could stretch from this auditorium

all the way across Ocean Boulevard

preko ulice Ocean Boulevard

to the Westin, and then to Mars ...

do hotela Westin in nato do Marsa...

(Laughter)

(smeh)

... if we use pennies.

...če uporabimo kovance za en peni.

Now this is obviously a powerful,

To je očitno izjemno prepričljiv, morda celo nevarno prepričljiv podatek.

some might say dangerously powerful, insight.

But it's also a morally important one.

Ob tem pa je pomemben tudi z moralnega vidika.

Because this isn't just the hypothetical retail value

Tu ne gre le za hipotetično maloprodajno vrednost piratiziranih filmov,

of some pirated movies that we're talking about,

but this is actual economic losses.

temveč za dejanske gospodarske izgube.

This is the equivalent

Ta izguba je enaka, kot da bi izpadla celotna ameriška žetev koruze, sadja,

to the entire American corn crop failing

along with all of our fruit crops,

as well as wheat, tobacco,

pšenice, tobaka, riža, sireka...

rice, sorghum --

whatever sorghum is -- losing sorghum.

karkoli že je sirek.

But identifying the actual losses to the economy

Toda dejanske izgube v gospodarstvu je skoraj nemogoče v celoti oceniti,

is almost impossible to do

unless we use copyright math.

če ne uporabimo matematike avtorskih pravic.

Now music revenues are down by about eight billion dollars a year

Prihodki od glasbe so se letno zmanjšali za približno osem milijard USD

since Napster first came on the scene.

odkar se je prvič pojavil Napster.

So that's a chunk of what we're looking for.

Tu lahko torej odkrijemo del teh izgub.

But total movie revenues

Toda skupni prihodki od filmov

across theaters, home video and pay-per-view are up.

v kinodvoranah, domačem videu in plačljivem videu so se povečali.

And TV, satellite and cable revenues are way up.

Prihodki tv postaj, satelitske in kabelske tv pa so se zelo povečali.

Other content markets like book publishing and radio

Drugi trgi z vsebinami, kot sta založništvo knjig in radio, so tudi rasli.

are also up.

So this small missing chunk here

Torej nam ta mali manjkajoči košček dela sive lase.

is puzzling.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

(Applause)

(aplavz)

Since the big content markets

Ker so veliki trgi z vsebinami rasli v skladu z zgodovinskimi normami,

have grown in line with historic norms,

it's not additional growth that piracy has prevented,

piratstvo ni preprečilo dodatne rasti,

but copyright math tells us

a matematika avtorskih pravic nam pove,

it must therefore be foregone growth

da mora zato biti izgubljena rast na trgu, ki nima zgodovinskih norm -

in a market that has no historic norms --

one that didn't exist in the 90's.

ker v 90-ih še ni obstajal.

What we're looking at here

Kar tukaj vidimo, je zahrbtni strošek piratiziranja melodij zvonjenja telefonov.

is the insidious cost of ringtone piracy.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

50 billion dollars of it a year,

50 milijard USD na leto,

which is enough, at 30 seconds a ringtone,

kar je, pri 30 sekundah na melodijo, dovolj, da sega nazaj do neandertalcev.

that could stretch from here

to Neanderthal times.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

It's true.

Resnično.

(Applause)

(aplavz)

I have Excel.

Imam Excel.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

The movie folks also tell us

Filmska industrija nam govori tudi,

that our economy loses

da gospodarstvo zaradi kraje vsebin izgubi več kot 370.000 delovnih mest,

over 370,000 jobs to content theft,

which is quite a lot when you consider that, back in '98,

kar je kar precej, če upoštevate, da je v letu 1998

the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated

ameriški Urad za statistiko dela navedel,

that the motion picture and video industries

da filmska industrija zaposluje 270.000 ljudi.

were employing 270,000 people.

(smeh)

Other data has the music industry at about 45,000 people.

Drugi podatki kažejo, da glasbena industrija zaposluje 45.000 ljudi.

And so the job losses that came with the Internet

Tako sta nas izguba delovnih mest, ki je prišla z internetom,

and all that content theft,

in vsa ta kraja vsebin pustila z negativno zaposlenostjo v naši industriji vsebin.

have therefore left us with negative employment in our content industries.

And this is just one of the many mind-blowing statistics

In to je samo ena od neverjetnih statistik,

that copyright mathematicians have to deal with every day.

s katerimi se matematiki avtorskih pravic dnevno soočajo.

And some people think that string theory is tough.

Nekateri pa mislijo, da je teorija strun težka.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

Now this is a key number from the copyright mathematicians' toolkit.

To je ključna številka med orodji matematikov avtorskih pravic.

It's the precise amount of harm

Je natančna vsota škode, ki jo utrpijo medijska podjetja,

that comes to media companies

whenever a single copyrighted song or movie

vsakič, ko se ena pesem ali film z avtorskimi pravicami spiratizira.

gets pirated.

Hollywood and Congress derived this number mathematically

Hollywood in ameriški kongres sta to številko matematično izpeljala,

back when they last sat down to improve copyright damages

ko sta nazadnje skupaj sedla,

da bi izboljšala odškodnine zaradi kršenja avtorskih pravic in naredila ta zakon.

and made this law.

Some people think this number's a little bit large,

Nekaterim se zdi ta številka nekoliko visoka,

but copyright mathematicians who are media lobby experts

a matematiki avtorskih pravic, ki so eksperti medijskega lobiranja,

are merely surprised

so le presenečeni, da se ne uskladi vsako leto z inflacijo.

that it doesn't get compounded for inflation every year.

Now when this law first passed,

Ko je bil ta zakon prvič sprejet,

the world's hottest MP3 player could hold just 10 songs.

je najboljši MP3 predvajalnik na svetu lahko vseboval vsega 10 pesmi.

And it was a big Christmas hit.

In bil je velik božični hit.

Because what little hoodlum wouldn't want

Kajti le kateri mali lopov si v svojem žepu ne bi želel

a million and a half bucks-worth of stolen goods in his pocket.

ukradene robe vredne milijona in pol čukov.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

(Applause)

(aplavz)

These days an iPod Classic can hold 40,000 songs,

Te dni lahko na iPod Classic naložimo 40.000 pesmi,

which is to say eight billion dollars-worth

kar je za 8 milijard dolarjev ukradene glasbe.

of stolen media.

(Applause)

(aplavz)

Or about 75,000 jobs.

Ali približno 75.000 delovnih mest.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

(Applause)

(aplavz)

Now you might find copyright math strange,

Matematika avtorskih pravic se vam morda zdi čudna,

but that's because it's a field

a le zato, ker je to področje bolje prepustiti strokovnjakom.

that's best left to experts.

So that's it for now.

To je zaenkrat vse.

I hope you'll join me next time

Upam, da se mi pridružite naslednjič,

when I will be making an equally scientific and fact-based inquiry

ko bom na enako znanstven način in na podlagi dejstev pogledal,

into the cost of alien music piracy to he American economy.

kakšne stroške ameriškemu gospodarstvu povzroča vesoljsko piratiziranje glasbe.

Thank you very much.

Najlepša hvala.

(Applause)

(aplavz)

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(aplavz)