Can the economy grow forever?

Translator: Nika Kotnik Reviewer: Klavdija Černilogar Dwyer

Let’s say you discover a magical gold coin that doubles every 25 years.

Recimo, da odkriješ čaroben zlatnik, ki se podvoji vsakih 25 let.

75 years later, you’d only have eight coins.

75 let kasneje bi imel samo 8 kovancev.

But 1,000 years later, you’d have over a trillion.

A čez tisoč let bi jih imel več kot bilijon.

And in just 4,600 years, your gold coins would outweigh the observable universe.

In v samo 4600 letih bi bili tvoji zlatniki težji kot znano vesolje.

This periodic doubling is an example of exponential growth,

To periodično podvajanje je primer eksponentne rasti

and while we’re not in any danger of discovering a real-life golden goose-coin,

in čeprav ne bomo nikoli odkrili resnične kokoši, ki nese zlatnike,

something almost as consequential has been growing like this

nekaj skoraj tako pomembnega raste na tak način

for the past 200 or so years: the global economy.

in to že 200 let: globalno gospodarstvo.

Many economists think that an eternally growing economy

Veliko ekonomistov meni, da je neskončno rastoče gospodarstvo

is necessary to keep improving people’s lives,

nujno za nenehno izboljševanje življenj ljudi,

and that if the global economy stops growing,

in če svetovno gospodarstvo preneha rasti,

people would fight more over the fixed amount of value that exists,

bi se ljudje spopadli zaradi omejene količine vrednosti,

rather than working to generate new value.

namesto da bi z delom proizvedli novo vrednost.

That raises the question:

To postavlja vprašanje:

is infinite growth possible on a finite planet?

je neskončna rast mogoča na omejenem planetu?

We measure economic growth by tracking the total financial value

Ekonomsko rast merimo s sledenjem celotne finančne vrednosti

of everything a country (or the world) produces and sells on the market.

vsega, kar država (ali svet) proizvede in proda na trgu.

These products can help us meet basic needs

Ti proizvodi nam lahko zadovoljijo osnovne potrebe

or improve our individual and collective quality of life.

ali izboljšajo našo osebno ali skupno kvaliteto življenja.

But they also, crucially, take resources to invent, build, or maintain.

Ali pa, pomembno, porabljajo vire za izume, gradnjo, popravila.

For example, this smartphone.

Na primer, ta pametni telefon.

It’s valuable in part because it contains aluminum, gallium, and silicon,

Vrednost ima deloma zato, ker vsebuje aluminij, galij in silikon,

all of which took energy and resources to mine, purify, and turn into a phone.

kar zahteva energijo za izkop surovin, njihovo prečiščenje in izdelavo telefona.

It’s also valuable because of all the effort that went

Prav tako ima vrednost zaradi truda, ki je šel

into designing the hardware and writing the software.

v oblikovanje strojne opreme in pisanje programske opreme.

And it’s also valuable because a guy in a black turtleneck got up on stage

Prav tako pa ima vrednost, ker je tip v črnem puliju stopil na oder

and told you it was.

in vam rekel, da jo ima.

So how do we grow the total financial value of all things?

Kako torej povečamo skupno finančno vrednost vseh stvari?

One way is to make more things.

En način je, da izdelamo več stvari.

Another way is to invent new things.

Drugi način je, da izumimo nove stvari.

However you do it, growing the economy requires resources and energy.

Kakorkoli to storimo, rast gospodarstva potrebuje vire in energijo.

And eventually, won’t we just run out?

In sčasoma, ali ne bo vsega kar zmanjkalo?

To answer this question, let's consider what goes into the economy

Da bi odgovorili na to vprašanje, poglejmo, kaj gre v gospodarstvo

and what comes out of it:

in kaj pride iz njega:

its inputs are labor, capital— which you can think of as money—

njegovi vložki so delo, kapital -lahko si zamišljate denar-

and natural resources, like water or energy.

in naravni viri, recimo voda ali energija.

Its output is value.

In ven pride vrednost.

Over the past 200 years, economies have gotten exponentially more efficient

Zadnjih 200 let so gospodarstva eksponentno rasla

at producing value.

pri ustvarjanju vrednosti.

If we, as a species, are able to keep upgrading our economies

Če smo mi, kot vrsta, zmožni izboljšave naših gospodarstev,

so that they get ever-more efficient,

da so vedno bolj učinkovita,

we could theoretically pump out more and more value using the same—

bi lahko teoretično ustvarjali več in več vrednosti z enako-

or, let’s be really ambitious here— fewer resources.

no, bodimo res ambiciozni- z manj viri.

So, how do we do that?

Kako torej to storimo?

How do we increase efficiency?

Kako povečamo učinkovitost?

With new technologies.

Z novimi tehnologijami.

This is where we hit a snag.

Tu pa se zatakne.

New tech, in addition to making things more efficient,

Nova tehnologija ne naredi stvari samo bolj učinkovite,

can also generate new demand, which ends up using more resources.

lahko ustvari novo povpraševanje, kar na koncu porabi več virov.

We’re actually not in imminent danger of running out of most resources.

Pravzaprav nismo v neposredni nevarnosti, da bi nam zmanjkalo večine virov.

But we have a much bigger and more immediate problem:

A imamo večji in bolj nujen problem:

the global economy, and in particular those of rich countries,

globalno gospodarstvo, predvsem v bogatih državah,

is driving climate change and destroying valuable natural environments

povzroča klimatske spremembe in uničuje pomembna naravna okolja,

on which all of us depend—

od katerih smo odvisni vsi-

soil, forests, fisheries, and countless other resources

prst, gozdove, ribe in nešteto drugih virov,

that help keep our civilization running.

zaradi katerih naša civilizacija nemoteno teče.

So, what should we do?

Kaj naj torej storimo?

This is where economists disagree.

Tu se ekonomisti ne strinjajo.

Most economists think that new ideas will be able to fix most of these problems.

Večina ekonomistov meni, da bodo nove ideje rešile večino teh problemov.

They argue that,

Trdijo,

in the same way that exponentially increasing resource and energy use

da tako kot je eksponentna rast rabe virov in energije

have fueled exponential economic growth,

poganjala eksponentno ekonomsko rast,

human ingenuity has also increased exponentially,

je človeška iznajdljivost prav tako rasla eksponentno,

and will rise to meet these challenges in ways that we simply can't predict.

in bo tem izzivom kos na načine, ki jih enostavno ne moremo predvideti.

For example, between 2000 and 2014,

Na primer, med letoma 2000 in 2014

Germany grew their GDP by 16%, while cutting CO2 emissions by 12%.

je nemški BDP zrasel za 16%, hkrati pa so zmanjšali emisije CO2 za 12%.

That’s impressive, but it’s not cutting emissions fast enough

To je občudovanja vredno, a ne zmanjšuje emisij dovolj hitro,

to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

da bi omejili segrevanje na 1,5 stopinje Celzija.

For this reason and others,

Iz tega in drugih razlogov

some economists think the solution is to reengineer our economies completely.

nekateri ekonomisti menijo, da je rešitev v popolnem preoblikovanju gospodarstva.

They make the case that what we should really be doing is weaning ourselves

Trdijo, da bi se morali odvaditi

from the addiction to growth and shifting to a post-growth economy.

obsedenosti z rastjo in se premakniti k gospodarstvu po rasti.

What would that look like?

Kako bi to izgledalo?

A post-growth economy wouldn’t assume that the economy should grow;

Gospodarstvo po rasti ne predvideva, da mora gospodarstvo rasti;

instead, it would require us to focus on improving what we really need—

namesto tega bi se osredotočili na izboljšanje tega, kar zares potrebujemo-

things like renewable energy, healthcare, and public transportation.

stvari kot je obnovljiva energija, zdravstvo in javni prevoz.

To do that, post-growth economists suggest that rich countries

Da bi to dosegli, ekonomisti “po rasti” predlagajo, naj bogate države

should do things like guarantee living wages,

zagotovijo dostojne plače,

reduce wealth and income inequality,

zmanjšajo neenakosti v premoženju in zaslužku

and ensure universal access to public services, like healthcare.

in zagotovijo dostop do javnih storitev, kot je zdravstvena oskrba.

In such an economy, people would be theoretically less dependent on their jobs

V takem gospodarstvu bi bili ljudje teoretično manj odvisni od svojih služb,

to earn their living or get healthcare,

da bi zaslužili dovolj ali dostopali do zdravstva,

so it might be more feasible to scale down production

zato bi bilo možno zmanjšati proizvodnjo

of things deemed less necessary.

stvari, ki niso tako nujne.

But this raises other questions: who gets to define what’s necessary?

A tu se pojavijo druga vprašanja: kdo določa, kaj je nujno?

How would we resolve the inevitable disagreements?

Kako bi razrešili neizogibna nestrinjanja?

Could we really do away with entire industries?

Bi res lahko ukinili celotne industrije?

The “we’ll come up with new ideas to solve these problems” approach

Pristop “Našli bomo nove ideje, da bomo rešili te probleme,”

can seem as realistic as, well, a magical gold coin.

se zdi tako realističen kot, no, magični zlatnik.

And the “we have to fundamentally change our economies” approach

In pristop, pri katerem moramo spremeniti temelje našega gospodarstva,

can seem politically daunting, particularly in rich countries.

se zdi politično zastrašujoč, še posebej v bogatih državah.

One way or another, we have to find a way to benefit everyone

Tako ali drugače moramo najti način, ki bo koristil vsem,

while also taking care of our planet.

in zraven poskrbeti še za naš planet.