The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

Prevodilac: Sandra Zerjal Lektor: Mile Živković

At every stage of our lives

U svakom periodu svog života

we make decisions that will profoundly influence

donosimo odluke koje će duboko uticati

the lives of the people we're going to become,

na živote ljudi kakvi ćemo postati,

and then when we become those people,

a onda, kada postanemo ti ljudi,

we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

nismo uvek oduševljeni odlukama koje smo doneli.

So young people pay good money

Dakle, mladi ljudi skupo plaćaju

to get tattoos removed that teenagers

da uklone tetovaže koje su kao tinejdžeri skupo platili

paid good money to get.

da bi ih stavili.

Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

Sredovečni ljudi požuruju da se razvedu od osoba

who young adults rushed to marry.

koje su kao mladi požurili da ožene.

Older adults work hard to lose

Stariji odrasli naporno rade da izgube

what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

što su kao sredovečni naporno radili da steknu.

On and on and on.

Iznova i iznova.

The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

Pitanje, koje me kao psihologa, fascinira je

why do we make decisions

zašto donosimo odluke

that our future selves so often regret?

koje naše buduće mi tako često zažali?

Now, I think one of the reasons --

Mislim da je jedan od razloga -

I'll try to convince you today —

pokušaću da vas ubedim večeras -

is that we have a fundamental misconception

taj što imamo u osnovi pogrešno shvatanje

about the power of time.

o moćnom uticaju vremena.

Every one of you knows that the rate of change

Svako od vas zna da se brzina promena

slows over the human lifespan,

usporava tokom ljudskog životnog veka,

that your children seem to change by the minute

da izgleda da se vaša deca menjaju kroz minute,

but your parents seem to change by the year.

ali se vaši roditelji menjaju kroz godine.

But what is the name of this magical point in life

Ali kako se zove taj magični trenutak u životu

where change suddenly goes

gde promena iznenada pređe

from a gallop to a crawl?

iz galopa u milenje?

Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

Da li su to adolescentske godine? Srednje godine?

Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

Da li je starost? Odgovor, ispostavilo se,

for most people, is now,

za većinu ljudi je - sada,

wherever now happens to be.

kad god bilo to sada.

What I want to convince you today

Želim da vas ubedim danas

is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

da svi mi šetamo naokolo sa iluzijom,

an illusion that history, our personal history,

iluzijom da je istorija, naša lična istorija,

has just come to an end,

upravo završena,

that we have just recently become

i da smo tek nedavno postali

the people that we were always meant to be

ljudi kakvi smo oduvek mislili biti

and will be for the rest of our lives.

i bićemo takvi ostatak života.

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

Daću vam neke podatke koji podržavaju tu tvrdnju.

So here's a study of change in people's

Ovo je istraživanje o promeni

personal values over time.

u ličnim vrednostima ljudi tokom vremena.

Here's three values.

Evo tri vrednosti.

Everybody here holds all of them,

Svi ovde imaju sve tri,

but you probably know that as you grow,

ali verovatno znate da kako odrastate,

as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

kako starite, ravnoteža između ovih vrednosti se menja.

So how does it do so?

Kako se to dešava?

Well, we asked thousands of people.

Pa, pitali smo hiljade ljudi.

We asked half of them to predict for us

Pitali smo polovinu da nam predvide

how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

koliko će se njihove vrednosti promeniti u narednih 10 godina,

and the others to tell us

a ostale da nam kažu

how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

koliko su se njihove vrednosti promenile u poslednjih 10 godina.

And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

To nam je omogućilo da uradimo veoma interesantnu analizu,

because it allowed us to compare the predictions

jer nam je omogućeno da uporedimo predviđanja

of people, say, 18 years old,

ljudi, recimo, od 18 godina,

to the reports of people who were 28,

sa izjavama ljudi od 28,

and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

i da uradimo takvu analizu kroz životni vek.

Here's what we found.

Evo šta smo otkrili.

First of all, you are right,

Kao prvo, u pravu ste,

change does slow down as we age,

promena se usporava kako starimo,

but second, you're wrong,

ali kao drugo, grešite,

because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

zato što ne usporava ni približno onoliko koliko smo mislili.

At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

U svakom uzrastu, od 18 do 68, u našem istraživanju,

people vastly underestimated how much change

ljudi veoma potcenjuju koliko promene

they would experience over the next 10 years.

će doživeti u sledećih 10 godina.

We call this the "end of history" illusion.

Mi to zovemo iluzijom "kraja istorije".

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

Da bih vam dao ideju o veličini ovog efekta,

you can connect these two lines,

povežemo ove dve linije,

and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

i ovde vidite da 18-godišnjaci

anticipate changing only as much

predviđaju promenu isto koliko

as 50-year-olds actually do.

i 50-godišnjaci.

Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

Nisu to samo vrednosti. Ima tu raznih stvari.

For example, personality.

Na primer, ličnost.

Many of you know that psychologists now claim

Mnogi od vas znaju da psiholozi danas tvrde da

that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

postoji 5 osnovnih crta ličnosti:

neuroticism, openness to experience,

neuroticizam, otvorenost ka iskustvu,

agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

saradljivost, ekstrovertnost i savesnost.

Again, we asked people how much they expected

Pitali smo ljude koliko očekuju da se promene

to change over the next 10 years,

u sledećih 10 godina,

and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

kao i koliko su se promenili u predhodnih 10 godina,

and what we found,

i šta smo otkrili?

well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

Navići ćete se da iznova gledate ovaj dijagram,

because once again the rate of change

zato što, ponovo, brzina promene

does slow as we age,

usporava kako starimo,

but at every age, people underestimate

ali u svakom uzrastu, ljudi potcenjuju

how much their personalities will change

koliko će se njihova ličnost promeniti

in the next decade.

u sledećoj deceniji.

And it isn't just ephemeral things

I to nije samo prolazna stvar,

like values and personality.

kao što su vrednosti i ličnost.

You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

Možete pitati ljude šta vole a šta ne vole,

their basic preferences.

njihove osnovne sklonosti.

For example, name your best friend,

Na primer, ko vam je najbolji prijatelj,

your favorite kind of vacation,

omiljen način odmora,

what's your favorite hobby,

koji vam je omiljeni hobi,

what's your favorite kind of music.

koja vam je omiljena muzika.

People can name these things.

Ljudi vam mogu reći te stvari.

We ask half of them to tell us,

Polovinu njih smo pitali:

"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

"Mislite li da će se to promeniti u sledećih 10 godina?"

and half of them to tell us,

a drugu polovinu smo pitali:

"Did that change over the last 10 years?"

"Da li se to promenilo u poslednjih 10 godina?"

And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

I otkrili smo, videli ste već dvaput

and here it is again:

i evo ga ponovo:

people predict that the friend they have now

ljudi predviđaju da su prijatelji koje imaju sada

is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

oni koje će imati i za 10 godina,

the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

da odmor u kome najviše uživaju sada

they'll enjoy in 10 years,

uživaće i za 10 godina,

and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

a opet, ljudi koji su 10 godina stariji, svi kažu,

"Eh, you know, that's really changed."

"Eh, znate, to se zaista promenilo."

Does any of this matter?

Da li je išta od ovoga važno?

Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

Da li je ovo samo pogrešno predviđanje koje nema nikakve posledice?

No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

Ne, prilično je važno, i daću vam primer zašto.

It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

To značajno otežava naše donošenje odluka.

Bring to mind right now for yourself

Prisetite se sada

your favorite musician today

vašeg omiljenog muzičara danas

and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

i vašeg omiljenog muzičara pre 10 godina.

I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

Postavio sam svog na ekran da vam pomognem.

Now we asked people

Pitali smo ljude

to predict for us, to tell us

da predvide i da nam kažu

how much money they would pay right now

koliko bi novca danas platili

to see their current favorite musician

da vide svog omiljenog muzičara

perform in concert 10 years from now,

na koncertu za 10 godina

and on average, people said they would pay

i u proseku, rekli su da bi platili

129 dollars for that ticket.

129 dolara za kartu.

And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

A opet, kada smo ih pitali koliko bi platili

to see the person who was their favorite

da vide muzičara koji im je bio omiljen

10 years ago perform today,

pre 10 godina, kako nastupa danas,

they say only 80 dollars.

rekli su samo 80 dolara.

Now, in a perfectly rational world,

U savršeno racionalnom svetu,

these should be the same number,

ovo bi trebalo biti isti broj,

but we overpay for the opportunity

ali mi pretplaćujemo mogućnost

to indulge our current preferences

da zadovoljimo naše trenutne prioritete

because we overestimate their stability.

zato što precenjujemo njihovu stabilnost.

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

Zašto se to događa? Nismo u potpunosti sigurni,

but it probably has to do

ali verovatno ima veze

with the ease of remembering

sa lakoćom pamćenja

versus the difficulty of imagining.

naspram težine zamišljanja.

Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

Većina nas se može prisetiti kakvi smo bili pre 10 godina,

but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

ali nam je teško da zamislimo kakvi ćemo biti za 10 godina,

and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

i onda pogrešno mislimo da pošto nam je teško da zamislimo

it's not likely to happen.

male su šanse da će se i desiti.

Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

Izvinite, kad ljudi kažu: "To ne mogu da zamislim,"

they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

uglavnom pričaju o sopstvenom nedostatku mašte,

and not about the unlikelihood

a ne o neverovatnosti

of the event that they're describing.

događaja koji opisuju.

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

Suština je, vreme je moćna sila.

It transforms our preferences.

Ono menja naše sklonosti.

It reshapes our values.

Ono menja naše vrednovanje.

It alters our personalities.

Ono menja našu ličnost.

We seem to appreciate this fact,

Mi izgleda cenimo tu činjenicu,

but only in retrospect.

ali samo u retrospektivi.

Only when we look backwards do we realize

Samo kada pogledamo unazad shvatimo

how much change happens in a decade.

koliko se promena desilo u deceniji.

It's as if, for most of us,

To je, za većinu, kao da je

the present is a magic time.

sadašnjost magični trenutak.

It's a watershed on the timeline.

To je kao prekretnica na vremenskoj liniji,

It's the moment at which we finally

To je momenat u kome konačno

become ourselves.

postajemo mi.

Human beings are works in progress

Ljudska bića su "radovi u toku"

that mistakenly think they're finished.

koji pogrešno misle da su završeni.

The person you are right now

Osoba koja ste trenutno

is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

podjednako je prolazna, nestalna i privremena

as all the people you've ever been.

kao što ste uvek i bili.

The one constant in our life is change.

Jedina konstanta u našim životima je promena.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)