The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

翻译人员: Yolanda Zhang 校对人员: Yuanqing Edberg

At every stage of our lives

在我们生命的每个阶段，

we make decisions that will profoundly influence

我们都会做出一些决定， 这些决定会深刻影响

the lives of the people we're going to become,

未来我们自己的生活，

and then when we become those people,

当我们成为未来的自己时，

we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

我们并不总是对过去 做过的决定感到高兴。

So young people pay good money

所以年轻人花很多钱

to get tattoos removed that teenagers

洗去当还是青少年时

paid good money to get.

花了很多钱做上的纹身。

Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

中年人急着跟

who young adults rushed to marry.

年轻时迫不及待想结婚的人离婚。

Older adults work hard to lose

老年人很努力的挥霍着

what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

作为中年人时不停工作所赚的钱。

On and on and on.

如此没完没了。

The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

作为一个心理学家， 让我感兴趣的问题是，

why do we make decisions

为什么我们会做出

that our future selves so often regret?

让自己将来常常后悔的决定？

Now, I think one of the reasons --

我认为其中一个原因——

I'll try to convince you today —

而我今天想说服你们的——，

is that we have a fundamental misconception

就是我们对时间的力量

about the power of time.

有个基本的错误概念。

Every one of you knows that the rate of change

你们每个人都知道变化的速度

slows over the human lifespan,

随着人的年龄增长不断放慢，

that your children seem to change by the minute

孩子们好像每分钟都有变化，

but your parents seem to change by the year.

而父母们的变化则要慢得多。

But what is the name of this magical point in life

那么生命中这个让变化

where change suddenly goes

突然间从飞速变得缓慢的

from a gallop to a crawl?

神奇转折点应该叫什么呢？

Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

是青少年时期吗？是中年时期吗？

Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

是老年阶段吗？ 其实对大多数人来说，

for most people, is now,

答案是，现在，

wherever now happens to be.

无论现在发生在什么。

What I want to convince you today

今天我想让大家明白的是，

is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

我们所有人都在围绕着 一种错觉生活，

an illusion that history, our personal history,

这种错觉就是，我们每个人的过去，

has just come to an end,

都已经结束了，

that we have just recently become

我们已经成为了

the people that we were always meant to be

我们应该成为的那种人，

and will be for the rest of our lives.

在余下的生命中也都会如此。

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

我想给你们展示一些数据 来支持这个观点。

So here's a study of change in people's

这是一项关于人们的个人价值观

personal values over time.

随时间变化的研究。

Here's three values.

这里有3种价值观。

Everybody here holds all of them,

每个人的生活都与这三个价值观相关，

but you probably know that as you grow,

但是你们可能知道， 随着你们慢慢长大，

as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

变老，这三个价值观的平衡点 会不断变化。

So how does it do so?

到底是怎么回事呢？

Well, we asked thousands of people.

我们询问了数千人。

We asked half of them to predict for us

我们让他们当中一半的人预测了一下

how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

在未来10年中， 他们的价值观会发生多大的改变，

and the others to tell us

让另一半人告诉我们

how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

在过去的10年中， 他们的价值观发生了多大的变化。

And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

这项调查可以让我们做一个很有趣的分析，

because it allowed us to compare the predictions

因为它可以让我们将

of people, say, 18 years old,

大约18岁左右的人的预测同

to the reports of people who were 28,

大约28岁左右的人的答案相比较，

and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

这项分析可以贯穿人的一生。

Here's what we found.

这是我们的发现。

First of all, you are right,

首先，你们是对的，

change does slow down as we age,

随着我们年龄的增长，变化会减缓。

but second, you're wrong,

第二，你们错了，

because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

因为这种变化并不像我们想象的那么慢。

At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

在我们的数据库从18岁到68岁的 每一个年龄段中，

people vastly underestimated how much change

人们大大的低估了在未来的10年

they would experience over the next 10 years.

他们会经历多少变化。

We call this the "end of history" illusion.

我们把这叫做“历史终止”错觉。

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

为了让你们了解这种影响有多大，

you can connect these two lines,

你们可以把这两条线连接起来，

and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

你们现在看到的是18岁的人群

anticipate changing only as much

预期的改变仅仅和

as 50-year-olds actually do.

50岁的人群实际经历的一样。

Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

现在不仅仅是价值观了。 其他的方面都也有变化。

For example, personality.

比如说，人格。

Many of you know that psychologists now claim

你们当中的很多人知道现在心理学家们认为

that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

人格可以分为五个基本维度：

neuroticism, openness to experience,

神经质性，经验汲取度，

agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

协调性，外向性和道德感。

Again, we asked people how much they expected

回到原来的话题， 我们问人们他们期待未来的10年中

to change over the next 10 years,

自己会有多大的变化，

and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

以及他们在过去的10年中发生了多少变化，

and what we found,

我们发现了，

well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

你们会习惯不断地看到这个图表，

because once again the rate of change

因为又一次，变化速率随着我们的年龄增长

does slow as we age,

减慢了。

but at every age, people underestimate

但是在每一个年龄阶段，人们都低估了

how much their personalities will change

在未来的十年中

in the next decade.

他们的人格会发生多大的改变。

And it isn't just ephemeral things

而且不光是像价值观和人格这样的

like values and personality.

临时性的特质。

You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

你们可以问问人们关于他们喜好和厌恶的事，

their basic preferences.

他们基本的偏好。

For example, name your best friend,

比如说，说出你最好朋友的名字，

your favorite kind of vacation,

你最喜欢什么样的假期，

what's your favorite hobby,

你最大的爱好是什么，

what's your favorite kind of music.

你最喜欢什么样的音乐。

People can name these things.

人们可以说出这些事情。

We ask half of them to tell us,

我们让他们当中的一半人告诉我们，

"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

“你认为这在未来10年内会改变吗？”

and half of them to tell us,

让另一半告诉我们，

"Did that change over the last 10 years?"

“这个在过去十年内变化了吗？”

And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

我们的发现是， 嗯，这个图你们已经看过2次了，

and here it is again:

再展示一次：

people predict that the friend they have now

人们推测他们现在的朋友

is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

在未来10年中还会是他们的朋友，

the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

他们喜欢的度假之地在未来10年内

they'll enjoy in 10 years,

还会是他们喜欢的地方，

and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

然而，年长10岁的人都会说：

"Eh, you know, that's really changed."

“嗯，你知道，这确实不一样了。”

Does any of this matter?

这有什么关系吗？

Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

这只是一种 并不会有什么后果的错误的预测吗？

No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

不，这有很大的关系， 我会举例告诉你们为什么。

It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

它在很多重要的方面困扰着我们做决定。

Bring to mind right now for yourself

现在想想你们此时此刻

your favorite musician today

最喜欢的音乐人，

and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

还有10年前你们最喜欢的音乐人。

I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

我把我的答案放在大屏幕上作为提示。

Now we asked people

现在我们让人们

to predict for us, to tell us

预测一下，告诉我们

how much money they would pay right now

他们现在愿意付多少钱

to see their current favorite musician

来参加他们现在最喜欢的音乐人

perform in concert 10 years from now,

从现在起10年后的音乐会，

and on average, people said they would pay

平均来讲，人们会说他们会付

129 dollars for that ticket.

129美元买票。

And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

然而，当我们问他们

to see the person who was their favorite

愿意付多少钱去看

10 years ago perform today,

他们10年前喜欢的人现在的演出，

they say only 80 dollars.

他们说只有80块。

Now, in a perfectly rational world,

那么，在一个完全理性的世界里，

these should be the same number,

这两个数字应该是相同的，

but we overpay for the opportunity

但是我们为沉浸于当前喜好中

to indulge our current preferences

的机会付了更多的钱，

because we overestimate their stability.

因为我们高估了它们的持久性。

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

为什么会发生这样的变化呢？ 我们也不是很确定，

but it probably has to do

不过这可能与

with the ease of remembering

记忆的消逝和

versus the difficulty of imagining.

想象的难度相关。

Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

我们中的大多数人都能记得 10年前的我们是什么样子，

but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

但是要想像我们会成为什么样的人就困难了，

and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

然后我们会错误地认为因为很难想象，

it's not likely to happen.

就不太可能会发生。

Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

很遗憾，当人们说“我可想象不出来”，

they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

他们通常是在表达他们缺乏想象力，

and not about the unlikelihood

而不是他们所描述的

of the event that they're describing.

不可能发生的事情。

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

总而言之，时间是一种强大的力量。

It transforms our preferences.

它改变了我们的喜好。

It reshapes our values.

它重塑了我们的价值观。

It alters our personalities.

它改变了我们的人格。

We seem to appreciate this fact,

我们似乎会感激这个事实，

but only in retrospect.

但是只在回想过去的时候。

Only when we look backwards do we realize

只有在我们回首过去的时候我们才会认识到

how much change happens in a decade.

在过去的十年里发生了多么大的变化。

It's as if, for most of us,

好像，对我们大多数人来说，

the present is a magic time.

当前是个有魔力的时刻。

It's a watershed on the timeline.

它是时间轴上的分水岭。

It's the moment at which we finally

它是一个使我们最终成为

become ourselves.

我们自己的时刻。

Human beings are works in progress

人类还处在发展变化的过程中，

that mistakenly think they're finished.

却错误地以为他们不会发生任何改变了。

The person you are right now

现在的你

is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

只是处于过渡中，转瞬即逝， 暂时的的状态而已，

as all the people you've ever been.

就像所有那些过去的你。

The one constant in our life is change.

在我们的生命中唯一不变的就是， 变化。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）