The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

844,861 views ใƒป 2014-06-03

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ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุฃุฏู†ุงู‡ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ.

ุงู„ู…ุชุฑุฌู…: Shahira Mohamed ุงู„ู…ุฏู‚ู‘ู‚: khalid marbou
00:12
At every stage of our lives
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ููŠ ูƒู„ ู…ุฑุญู„ุฉ ู…ู† ุญูŠุงุชู†ุง
00:14
we make decisions that will profoundly influence
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ู†ุชุฎุฐ ู‚ุฑุงุฑุงุช ุณุชุคุซุฑ ุจุดูƒู„ ุนู…ูŠู‚
00:18
the lives of the people we're going to become,
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ุนู„ู‰ ุญูŠุงุฉ ุงู„ุดุฎุต ุงู„ุฐูŠ ู†ุชุญูˆู„ ุฅู„ูŠู‡ุŒ
00:20
and then when we become those people,
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ุซู… ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู†ุตุจุญ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุดุฎุตุŒ
00:21
we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
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ููŠ ุจุนุถ ุงู„ุฃุญูŠุงู† ู‚ุฏ ู„ุง ู†ูƒูˆู† ู…ูˆูู‚ูŠู† ููŠ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู‚ุฑุงุฑุงุช.
00:24
So young people pay good money
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ููŠุฏูุน ุงู„ุดุจุงุจ ุฃู…ูˆุงู„ู‹ุง ูƒุซูŠุฑุฉ
00:26
to get tattoos removed that teenagers
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ู„ูŠุชุฎู„ุตูˆุง ู…ู† ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ูˆุดู… ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุฏูุน ุงู„ู…ุฑุงู‡ู‚ูŠู†
00:29
paid good money to get.
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ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑ ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃู…ูˆุงู„ ู„ูŠุญุตู„ูˆุง ุนู„ูŠู‡.
00:30
Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people
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ูŠุณุชุนุฌู„ ู…ุชูˆุณุทูˆ ุงู„ุนู…ุฑ ููŠ ุฃุฎุฐ ู‚ุฑุงุฑ ุงู„ุทู„ุงู‚
00:33
who young adults rushed to marry.
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ูˆูŠุณุชุนุฌู„ ุงู„ุดุจุงุจ ู„ู„ุฒูˆุงุฌ.
00:35
Older adults work hard to lose
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ูŠุนู…ู„ ุงู„ุจุงู„ุบูˆู† ุงู„ุฃูƒุจุฑ ุณู†ุง ุจุดุฏู‘ุฉ ู„ูŠุฎุณุฑูˆุง
00:38
what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.
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ู…ุง ุนู…ู„ ู…ุชูˆุณุทูˆ ุงู„ุนู…ุฑ ู…ู† ุฃุฌู„ ูƒุณุจู‡.
00:41
On and on and on.
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ุจุงุณุชู…ุฑุงุฑ.
00:42
The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,
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ุฃู†ุง ูƒุนุงู„ู… ู†ูุณุŒ ุงู„ุณุคุงู„ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠุซูŠุฑ ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู…ูŠ ู‡ูˆุŒ
00:45
why do we make decisions
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ู„ู…ุงุฐุง ู†ุชุฎุฐ ู‚ุฑุงุฑุงุช
00:47
that our future selves so often regret?
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ุฏุงุฆู…ู‹ุง ู†ู†ุฏู… ุนู„ูŠู‡ุง ููŠ ุงู„ู…ุณุชู‚ุจู„ุŸ
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons --
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ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ ุฃุนุชู‚ุฏ ุฃู† ุฅุญุฏู‰ ุงู„ุฃุณุจุงุจ-
00:52
I'll try to convince you today โ€”
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ุงู„ุชูŠ ุณูˆู ุฃุญุงูˆู„ ุฅู‚ู†ุงุนูƒ ุจู‡ุง ุงู„ูŠูˆู…-
00:54
is that we have a fundamental misconception
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ุฃู†ู‡ ุนู†ุฏู†ุง ููƒุฑุฉ ุฎุงุทุฆุฉ
00:56
about the power of time.
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ุนู† ุฃู‡ู…ูŠุฉ ุงู„ูˆู‚ุช.
00:59
Every one of you knows that the rate of change
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ูƒู„ูƒู… ุชุนุฑููˆู† ุฃู† ู…ุนุฏู„ ุงู„ุชุบูŠุฑ
01:01
slows over the human lifespan,
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ูŠุชุจุงุทุฃ ุฎู„ุงู„ ุนู…ุฑ ุงู„ุฅู†ุณุงู†ุŒ
01:03
that your children seem to change by the minute
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ูุชู„ุงุญุธูˆู† ุฃู† ุฃุทูุงู„ูƒู… ูŠุชุบูŠุฑูˆู† ููŠ ุบุถูˆู† ุฏู‚ุงุฆู‚
01:06
but your parents seem to change by the year.
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุขุจุงุกูƒู… ูŠุชุบูŠุฑูˆู† ุฎู„ุงู„ ุงู„ุณู†ุฉ.
01:09
But what is the name of this magical point in life
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ู…ุง ุฅุณู… ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู†ู‚ุทุฉ ุงู„ู‰ุณุงุญุฑุฉ ููŠ ุญูŠุงุชู†ุง
01:12
where change suddenly goes
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ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ูŠุชุญูˆู„ ูุฌุฃุฉ ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ
01:14
from a gallop to a crawl?
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ู…ู† ุณุฑุนุฉ ูƒุจูŠุฑุฉ ุฅู„ู‰ ุจุทุก ุดุฏูŠุฏุŸ
01:16
Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?
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ู‡ู„ ู‡ูˆ ุณู† ุงู„ู…ุฑุงู‡ู‚ุฉุŸ ุฃู… ุฃูˆุณุท ุงู„ุนู…ุฑุŸ
01:19
Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,
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ู‡ู„ ู‡ูˆ ุนู…ุฑ ุงู„ุดูŠุฎูˆุฎุฉุŸ ุชุจูŠู† ุฃู† ุงู„ุฅุฌุงุจุฉ
01:22
for most people, is now,
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ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ู…ุนุธู… ุงู„ู†ุงุณุŒ ุฃู† ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ูˆู‚ุช ู‡ูˆ ุญุงู„ูŠุงุŒ
01:24
wherever now happens to be.
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ูˆุญูŠุซู…ุง ูŠุญุฏุซ ุงู„ุขู†.
01:27
What I want to convince you today
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ุงู„ุดูŠุก ุงู„ุฐูŠ ุฃุฑูŠุฏ ุฅู‚ู†ุงุนูƒ ุจู‡ ุงู„ูŠูˆู…
01:29
is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,
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ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ู‡ ูƒู„ู†ุง ู…ุฎุฏูˆุนูˆู† ุจูˆู‡ู…ุŒ
01:32
an illusion that history, our personal history,
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ุชูˆู‡ู…ู†ุง ุฃู† ุงู„ุชุงุฑูŠุฎุŒ ุชุงุฑูŠุฎู†ุง ุงู„ุดุฎุตูŠ ุจุงู„ุชุญุฏูŠุฏุŒ
01:35
has just come to an end,
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ู‚ุฏ ูˆุตู„ ุฅู„ู‰ ู†ู‡ุงูŠุฉุŒ
01:37
that we have just recently become
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ูˆุฃู†ู†ุง ุฃุตุจุญู†ุง ู…ุคุฎุฑู‹ุง
01:39
the people that we were always meant to be
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ุงู„ุฃุดุฎุงุต ุงู„ุฐูŠู† ูƒู†ุง ุฏุงุฆู…ุง ู†ุทู…ุญ ู„ุฃู† ู†ูƒูˆู†ู‡ู…
01:42
and will be for the rest of our lives.
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ูˆุณูˆู ู†ูƒูˆู† ูƒุฐู„ูƒ ู„ุขุฎุฑ ุนู…ุฑู†ุง.
01:44
Let me give you some data to back up that claim.
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ุฏุนูˆู†ูŠ ุฃุนุทูƒู… ุจุนุถ ุงู„ู…ุนู„ูˆู…ุงุช ู„ู„ุฅูŠุถุงุญ ุฃูƒุซุฑ.
01:46
So here's a study of change in people's
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ุฏุฑุงุณุฉ ุนู† ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ ููŠ
01:49
personal values over time.
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ู‚ูŠู… ุงู„ุฅู†ุณุงู† ุงู„ุดุฎุตูŠุฉ ุนุจุฑ ุงู„ูˆู‚ุช.
01:51
Here's three values.
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ู‡ู†ุง ุชูˆุฌุฏ ุซู„ุงุซุฉ ู…ุนุงูŠูŠุฑ.
01:53
Everybody here holds all of them,
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ุงู„ุฌู…ูŠุน ู‡ู†ุง ูŠุญู…ู„ู‡ุง ุฌู…ูŠุนุงุŒ
01:54
but you probably know that as you grow,
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ูˆู„ูƒู†ูƒ ุชุนู„ู… ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฃุฑุฌุญ ุฃู†ู‡ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุชูƒุจุฑุŒ
01:56
as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
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ูˆุชุชู‚ุฏู… ููŠ ุงู„ุนู…ุฑุŒ ูุฅู† ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ู…ุนุงูŠูŠุฑ ุชุฎุชู„ู.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ูƒูŠู ุชูุนู„ ุฐู„ูƒุŸ
02:02
Well, we asked thousands of people.
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ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ุณุฃู„ู†ุง ุงู„ุขู„ุงู ู…ู† ุงู„ู†ุงุณ.
02:04
We asked half of them to predict for us
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ุทู„ุจู†ุง ู…ู† ู†ุตู ู‡ุคู„ุงุก ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ุฃู† ูŠุชู†ุจุคูˆุง ู„ู†ุง
02:05
how much their values would change in the next 10 years,
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ุจู…ู‚ุฏุงุฑ ู…ุง ูŠู…ูƒู† ุฃู† ูŠุชุบูŠุฑ ู…ู† ู‚ูŠู…ู‡ู… ุฎู„ุงู„ ุงู„ุนุดุฑ ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ู‚ุงุฏู…ุฉุŒ
02:08
and the others to tell us
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ูˆุทู„ุจู†ุง ู…ู† ุงู„ู†ุตู ุงู„ุขุฎุฑุฃู† ูŠู‚ูˆู„ ู„ู†ุงุŒ
02:10
how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.
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ุจู…ู‚ุฏุงุฑ ุชุบูŠุฑ ู‚ูŠู…ู‡ู… ุงู„ูุนู„ูŠ ุฎู„ุงู„ ุงู„ุนุดุฑ ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ุฃุฎูŠุฑุฉุŒ
02:13
And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,
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ูˆู‡ุฐุง ุฃุนุทุงู†ุง ูุฑุตุฉ ู„ุฃู† ู†ุญุตู„ ุนู„ู‰ ุชุญู„ูŠู„ ู…ุซูŠุฑ ู„ู„ุงู‡ุชู…ุงู…
02:16
because it allowed us to compare the predictions
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ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ุณู…ุญ ู„ู†ุง ุจุฃู† ู†ู‚ุงุฑู† ุชู†ุจุคุงุช
02:19
of people, say, 18 years old,
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ุงู„ู†ุงุณุŒ ุฏุนู†ุง ู†ู‚ู„ุŒ ุฐูˆูŠ 18 ุณู†ุฉุŒ
02:21
to the reports of people who were 28,
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ู…ุน ุฐูˆูŠ 28 ุณู†ุฉุŒ
02:23
and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.
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ูˆู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู†ูˆุน ู…ู† ุงู„ุชุญุงู„ูŠู„ ุทูˆุงู„ ุฏูˆุฑุฉ ุงู„ุญูŠุงุฉ.
02:25
Here's what we found.
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ู‡ุฐุง ู…ุง ุญุตู„ู†ุง ุนู„ูŠู‡.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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ุฃูˆู„ู‹ุงุŒ ุฃู†ุช ู…ุญู‚ุŒ
02:28
change does slow down as we age,
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ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ ูŠุชุจุงุทุฃ ูƒู„ู…ุง ูƒุจุฑู†ุง ููŠ ุงู„ุนู…ุฑุŒ
02:31
but second, you're wrong,
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ุซุงู†ูŠู‹ุงุŒ ุฃู†ุช ู…ุฎุทุฆุŒ
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.
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ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ู„ุง ูŠุชุจุงุทุฃ ุจู‚ุฏุฑ ู…ุง ู†ุญู† ู†ุนุชู‚ุฏ.
02:36
At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,
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ููŠ ูƒู„ ุนู…ุฑุŒ ู…ู† 18 ุฅู„ู‰ 68 ููŠ ู…ุฌู…ูˆุนุฉ ุจูŠู†ุงุชู†ุงุŒ
02:40
people vastly underestimated how much change
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ูŠู‚ู„ู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ู…ู† ุชู‚ุฏูŠุฑ ุญุฌู… ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ ุจุดูƒู„ ูƒุจูŠุฑ
02:44
they would experience over the next 10 years.
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ูˆุงู„ุฐูŠ ุณูŠุฎุชุจุฑูˆู†ู‡ ุฎู„ุงู„ ุงู„10 ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ู‚ุงุฏู…ุฉ.
02:47
We call this the "end of history" illusion.
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ู†ุญู† ู†ุณู…ูŠ ู‡ุฐุง ุจูˆู‡ู… "ู†ู‡ุงูŠุฉ ุชุงุฑูŠุฎ".
02:50
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,
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ู„ุฅุนุทุงุกูƒ ููƒุฑุฉ ุนู† ุญุฌู… ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุชุฃุซูŠุฑุŒ
02:52
you can connect these two lines,
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ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒ ุงู„ุชูˆุตูŠู„ ุจูŠู† ู‡ุฐูŠู† ุงู„ุฎุทูŠู†ุŒ
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds
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ูˆู…ุง ุชุฑุงู‡ ู‡ู†ุง ุฃู† ู…ู† ูŠุจู„ุบ 18 ุณู†ุฉ
02:56
anticipate changing only as much
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ูŠุชูˆู‚ุน ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ ุจู‚ุฏุฑ ู…ุง
02:58
as 50-year-olds actually do.
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ูŠุชูˆู‚ุน ุงู„ุจุงู„ุบ ู…ู† ุงู„ุนู…ุฑ 50 ุนุงู…ู‹ุง.
03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.
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ู‡ุฐู‡ ู„ูŠุณุช ูู‚ุท ู‚ูŠู…ุŒ ุจู„ ุฅู†ู‡ุง ุจุนุถ ู…ู† ูƒู„ ุดูŠุก.
03:05
For example, personality.
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ู…ุซู„ู‹ุงุŒ ุงู„ุดุฎุตูŠุฉ.
03:07
Many of you know that psychologists now claim
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ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑ ู…ู†ูƒู… ูŠุนู„ู…ูˆู† ุฃู† ุนู„ู…ุงุก ุงู„ู†ูุณ ุงู„ุขู† ูŠุฑุฌุญูˆู†
03:09
that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:
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ุฃู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ 5 ุฃุจุนุฏ ุฃุณุงุณูŠุฉ ู„ู„ุดุฎุตูŠุฉ:
03:13
neuroticism, openness to experience,
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ุงู„ุนุตุงุจูŠุฉุŒ ุงู„ุงู†ูุชุงุญ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชุฌุฑุจุฉุŒ
03:15
agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
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ุงู„ู‚ุจูˆู„ุŒ ุงู„ุงู†ุจุณุงุทุŒ ูˆุงู„ุถู…ูŠุฑ.
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected
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ู…ุฑุฉ ุฃุฎุฑู‰ุŒ ุณุฃู„ู†ุง ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ูƒู… ูŠุชูˆู‚ุนูˆู†
03:21
to change over the next 10 years,
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ุฃู† ูŠุชุบูŠุฑูˆุง ููŠ ุฎู„ุงู„ ุงู„ุนุดุฑ ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ู‚ุงุฏู…ุฉุŒ
03:23
and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,
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ูˆุฃูŠุถู‹ุง ูƒู… ุชุบูŠุฑูˆ ุฎู„ุงู„ ุขุฎุฑ 10 ุณู†ูˆุงุชุŒ
03:26
and what we found,
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ู…ุง ูˆุฌุฏู†ุงู‡ุŒ
03:27
well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,
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ุณุชู‚ูˆู… ุจุงู„ุชุนูˆุฏ ุนู„ู‰ ุฑุคูŠุฉ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ุฑุณู… ุงู„ุจูŠุงู†ูŠ ุชูƒุฑุงุฑุงุŒ
03:30
because once again the rate of change
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ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ู…ุฑุฉ ุฃุฎุฑู‰ ู†ุณุจุฉ ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ
03:32
does slow as we age,
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ุชุชุบูŠุฑ ูƒู„ู…ุง ู†ุชู‚ุฏู… ููŠ ุงู„ุนู…ุฑุŒ
03:33
but at every age, people underestimate
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ููŠ ูƒู„ ุนู…ุฑุŒ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ูŠู‚ู„ู„ูˆู†
03:37
how much their personalities will change
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ู…ู† ู‚ุฏุฑ ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ ููŠ ุดุฎุตูŠุงุชู‡ู…
03:39
in the next decade.
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ููŠ ุงู„ุนู‚ุฏ ุงู„ู…ูˆุงู„ูŠ.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral things
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ูˆู„ูƒู†ู‡ุง ู„ูŠุณุช ูู‚ุท ุฃุดูŠุงุก ุนุงุจุฑุฉ
03:44
like values and personality.
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ูƒุงู„ู‚ูŠู… ูˆุงู„ุดุฎุตูŠุฉ.
03:45
You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,
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ูŠู…ูƒู†ูƒ ุฃู† ุชุณุฃู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ุนู…ุง ูŠุญุจูˆู† ูˆู…ุง ู„ุง ูŠุญุจูˆู†ุŒ
03:48
their basic preferences.
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ู…ูุถู„ุงุชู‡ู… ุงู„ุฃุณุงุณูŠุฉ.
03:50
For example, name your best friend,
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ู…ุซู„ู‹ุงุŒ ุฃุฐูƒุฑ ุฃุณู… ุตุฏูŠู‚ูƒ ุงู„ู…ูุถู„ุŒ
03:53
your favorite kind of vacation,
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ุฃูุถู„ ุทุฑูŠู‚ุฉ ู„ู‚ุถุงุก ุฅุฌุงุฒุชูƒุŒ
03:54
what's your favorite hobby,
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ู…ุง ู‡ูŠ ู‡ูˆุงูŠุชูƒ ุงู„ู…ูุถู„ุฉุŒ
03:56
what's your favorite kind of music.
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ู…ุง ู‡ูˆ ุฃูุถู„ ู†ูˆุน ู…ูˆุณูŠู‚ูŠ ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ูƒ.
03:58
People can name these things.
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ูŠู…ูƒู† ู„ู„ู†ุงุณ ุฐูƒุฑ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ุฃุดูŠุงุก.
03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
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ู†ุทู„ุจ ู…ู† ู†ุตูู‡ู… ุฃู† ูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆ ู„ู†ุงุŒ
04:01
"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"
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"ู‡ู„ ุชุนุชู‚ุฏ ุฃู† ู‡ุฐุง ุณูˆู ูŠุชุบูŠุฑ ุฎู„ุงู„ ุงู„10 ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ู‚ุงุฏู…ุฉุŸ"
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
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ูˆุงู„ู†ุตู ุงู„ุขุฎุฑ ู†ุณุฃู„ู‡ู…ุŒ
04:06
"Did that change over the last 10 years?"
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"ู‡ู„ ุชุบูŠุฑ ู‡ุฐุง ุฎู„ุงู„ ุขุฎุฑ 10 ุณู†ูˆุงุชุŸ"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,
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ูˆู…ุง ูˆุฌุฏู†ุงุŒ ุฃู†ุช ุฑุฃูŠุชู‡ ู…ุฑุชูŠูŠู† ู„ุญุฏ ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ
04:11
and here it is again:
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ูˆู‡ุง ู‡ูˆ ู…ุฌุฏุฏู‹ุง:
04:13
people predict that the friend they have now
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ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ุชุชู†ุจุฃ ุฃู† ุตุฏูŠู‚ู‡ู… ุงู„ูŠูˆู…
04:16
is the friend they'll have in 10 years,
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ู‡ูˆ ู†ูุณ ุงู„ุตุฏูŠู‚ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠูƒูˆู† ููŠ ุญูŠุงุชู‡ู… ููŠ ุงู„10 ุณู†ูˆุงุช ุงู„ู‚ุงุฏู…ุฉ
04:18
the vacation they most enjoy now is the one
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ุงู„ุฅุฌุงุฒุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠุณุชู…ุชุนูˆู† ุจู‡ุง ุงู„ุขู† ู‡ูŠ ู†ูุณู‡ุง
04:20
they'll enjoy in 10 years,
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ุงู„ุชูŠ ุณูŠุณุชู…ุชุนูˆู† ุจู‡ุง ุจุนุฏ 10 ุณู†ูˆุงุชุŒ
04:21
and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,
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ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฑุบู… ู…ู† ุฃู† ุงู„ุฃุดุฎุงุต ุงู„ุฃูƒุจุฑ ุจ-10 ุฃุนูˆุงู… ูƒู„ู‡ู… ูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆู†ุŒ
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
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"ุชุนู„ู…ูˆู†ุŒ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุน ุชุบูŠุฑ ุจุงู„ูุนู„."
04:27
Does any of this matter?
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ู‡ู„ ูƒู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุดูŠุก ูŠู‡ู…ุŸ
04:28
Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?
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ู‡ู„ ูƒู„ ู‡ุฐุง ู†ูˆุน ู…ู† ุณูˆุก ุงู„ุชูˆู‚ุน ุงู„ุฐูŠ ู„ุง ูŠุญู…ู„ ุนูˆุงู‚ุจุŸ
04:31
No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.
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ุจู„ู‰ุŒ ุฅู†ู‡ ูŠู‡ู… ู‚ู„ูŠู„ู‹ุงุŒ ูˆุณุฃุนุทูŠูƒู… ู…ุซุงู„ู‹ุง ุนู† ุงู„ุณุจุจ.
04:34
It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ูŠุดูˆุด ุนู„ู‰ ุงุชุฎุงุฐ ุงู„ู‚ุฑุงุฑ ุจุฃุณุงู„ูŠุจ ู…ู‡ู…ุฉ.
04:38
Bring to mind right now for yourself
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ููƒุฑ ุงู„ุขู† ููŠ
04:39
your favorite musician today
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ุงู„ู…ูˆุณูŠู‚ูŠ ุงู„ู…ูุถู„ ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ุงู„ูŠูˆู…
04:42
and your favorite musician 10 years ago.
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ูˆุงู„ู…ูˆุณูŠู‚ูŠ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูƒุงู†ุช ู…ูุถู„ุฉ ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ู‚ุจู„ 10 ุณู†ูˆุงุช.
04:44
I put mine up on the screen to help you along.
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ูˆุถุนุช ู„ูƒู… ุงู„ู…ูุถู„ูŠู† ู„ุฏูŠ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุดุงุดุฉ ู„ู…ุณุงุนุฏุชูƒู….
04:46
Now we asked people
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ุงู„ุขู† ุณุฃู„ู†ุง ุงู„ู†ุงุณ
04:48
to predict for us, to tell us
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ู„ูŠุชูˆู‚ุนูˆุง ู„ู†ุงุŒ ูˆูŠู‚ูˆู„ูˆุง ู„ู†ุง
04:50
how much money they would pay right now
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ูƒู… ู…ู† ุงู„ุฃู…ูˆุงู„ ุณูŠู†ูู‚ูˆู†ู‡ุง ุญุงู„ูŠู‹ุง
04:53
to see their current favorite musician
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ู„ูŠุฑูˆุง ุงู„ู…ูˆุณูŠู‚ูŠ ุงู„ู…ูุถู„ ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู…
04:55
perform in concert 10 years from now,
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ูŠุคุฏูŠ ููŠ ุญูู„ ุจุนุฏ 10 ุณู†ูˆุงุช ู…ู† ุงู„ูŠูˆู…ุŒ
04:58
and on average, people said they would pay
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ูˆููŠ ุงู„ู…ุชูˆุณุทุŒ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ ู‚ุงู„ูˆุง ุฃู†ู‡ู… ุณูŠุฏูุนูˆู†
05:00
129 dollars for that ticket.
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129 ุฏูˆู„ุงุฑ ู„ู„ุชุฐูƒุฑุฉ.
05:03
And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay
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ูˆู…ุน ุฐู„ูƒุŒ ุญูŠู† ุณุฃู„ู†ุงู‡ู… ูƒู… ุณูŠุฏูุนูˆู†
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite
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ู„ูŠุฑูˆุง ุงู„ุดุฎุต ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูƒุงู† ู…ูุถู„ุง
05:08
10 years ago perform today,
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ู„ุฏูŠู‡ู… ู‚ุจู„ 10 ุณู†ูˆุงุช ููŠ ุนุฑุถ ุฃุฏุงุก ุงู„ูŠูˆู…ุŒ
05:10
they say only 80 dollars.
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ู‚ุงู„ูˆุง ูู‚ุท 80 ุฏูˆู„ุงุฑ.
05:12
Now, in a perfectly rational world,
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ุงู„ุขู†ุŒ ููŠ ุนุงู„ู… ุนู‚ู„ุงู†ูŠ ูƒุงู…ู„ุŒ
05:14
these should be the same number,
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ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ูุฑูˆุถ ุฃู† ูŠูƒูˆู† ุงู„ุฑู‚ู…ุงู† ู…ุชุณุงูˆูŠุงู†ุŒ
05:16
but we overpay for the opportunity
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ูˆู„ูƒู†ู†ุง ู†ุฏูุน ุงู„ู…ุฒูŠุฏ ู…ู† ุฃุฌู„ ุงู„ูุฑุตุฉ
05:18
to indulge our current preferences
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ู„ูƒูŠ ู†ุดุจุน ุฑุบุจุชู†ุง ููŠ ุงู„ุฃูุถู„ูŠุงุช ุงู„ุญุงู„ูŠุฉ
05:20
because we overestimate their stability.
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ู„ุฃู†ู†ุง ู†ุจุงู„ุบ ููŠ ุชู‚ุฏูŠุฑ ุฏูˆุงู…ู‡ุง.
05:24
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,
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ู„ู…ุงุฐุง ูŠุญุฏุซ ุฐู„ูƒุŸ ู„ุณู†ุง ู…ุชุฃูƒุฏูŠู† ูƒู„ูŠู‹ุงุŒ
05:26
but it probably has to do
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ู…ู† ุงู„ู…ุญุชู…ู„ ุฃู† ุชูƒูˆู†
05:28
with the ease of remembering
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ุจุณู‡ูˆู„ุฉ ุงู„ุชุฐูƒุฑ
05:30
versus the difficulty of imagining.
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ู…ู‚ุงุจู„ ุตุนูˆุจุฉ ุงู„ุชุฎูŠู„.
05:32
Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,
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ุงู„ูƒุซูŠุฑ ู…ู†ุง ูŠุชุฐูƒุฑ ูƒูŠู ูƒุงู† ู…ู†ุฐ 10 ุณู†ูˆุงุชุŒ
05:35
but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ูŠุตุนุจ ุนู„ูŠู†ุง ุฃู† ู†ุชุฎูŠู„ ูƒูŠู ุณู†ูƒูˆู†ุŒ
05:38
and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,
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ูˆู„ูƒู†ู†ุง ู†ุฎุทุฆ ููŠ ุงู„ุชููƒูŠุฑ ููŠ ุฐู„ูƒ ู„ุฃู†ู‡ ุตุนุจ ุนู„ูŠู†ุง ุฃู† ู†ุชุฎูŠู„ุŒ
05:41
it's not likely to happen.
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ุฃู†ู‡ ู„ุง ูŠุญุชู…ู„ ุฃู† ูŠุญุฏุซ.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"
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ุขุณูุŒ ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ูŠู‚ูˆู„ ุงู„ู†ุงุณ "ู„ุง ุงุณุชุทูŠุน ุฃู† ุฃุชุฎูŠู„ ุฐู„ูƒุŒ"
05:46
they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,
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ุฅู†ู‡ู… ุนุงุฏุฉู‹ ูŠุชูƒู„ู…ูˆู† ุนู† ุนุฏู… ุงู„ู‚ุฏุฑุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ุงู„ุชุฎูŠู„ุŒ
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
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ูˆู„ูŠุณ ุนู† ุงุณุชุจุนุงุฏ
05:50
of the event that they're describing.
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ุงู„ุญุฏุซ ุงู„ุฐูŠ ูŠุญุงูˆู„ูˆู† ูˆุตูู‡.
05:53
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.
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ุฎู„ุงุตุฉ ุงู„ู‚ูˆู„ุŒ ุงู„ูˆู‚ุช ู‚ูˆุฉ ู‚ุฏูŠุฑุฉ.
05:57
It transforms our preferences.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ูŠุบูŠุฑ ู…ูุถู„ุงุชู†ุง.
05:59
It reshapes our values.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ูŠุนูŠุฏ ุชุดูƒูŠู„ ู‚ูŠู…ู†ุง.
06:01
It alters our personalities.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ูŠุบูŠุฑ ุดุฎุตูŠุชู†ุง.
06:02
We seem to appreciate this fact,
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ูŠุจุฏูˆ ุฃู†ู†ุง ู†ู‚ุฏุฑ ู‡ุฐู‡ ุงู„ูˆุงู‚ุนุฉุŒ
06:05
but only in retrospect.
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ูˆู„ูƒู† ูู‚ุท ููŠ ุงุณุชุนุงุฏุฉ ุงู„ุฃุญุฏุงุซ ุงู„ู…ุงุถูŠุฉ.
06:06
Only when we look backwards do we realize
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ูู‚ุท ุนู†ุฏู…ุง ู†ู†ุธุฑ ุฅู„ู‰ ุงู„ุฎู„ู ู†ุจุฏุฃ ููŠ ู…ู„ุงุญุธุฉ
06:09
how much change happens in a decade.
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ูƒู… ู…ู† ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ ูŠุญุฏุซ ุนุจุฑ ุงู„ุณู†ูŠู†.
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
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ุฅู†ู‡ ูƒู…ุง ู„ูˆ ุฃู†ู‡ุŒ ุจุงู„ู†ุณุจุฉ ู„ู…ุนุธู…ู†ุงุŒ
06:14
the present is a magic time.
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ุงู„ุญุงุถุฑ ู‡ูˆ ูˆู‚ุช ุณุงุญุฑ.
06:16
It's a watershed on the timeline.
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ุฅู†ู‡ ู†ู‚ุทุฉ ุชุญูˆู„ ููŠ ุฌุฏูˆู„ ุฒู…ู†ูŠ.
06:18
It's the moment at which we finally
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ุฅู†ู‡ุง ุงู„ู„ุญุธุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ููŠ ู†ู‡ุงูŠุชู‡ุง
06:20
become ourselves.
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ู†ุตุจุญ ุฃู†ูุณู†ุง.
06:23
Human beings are works in progress
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ุงู„ุจุดุฑ ูŠุนู…ู„ูˆู† ููŠ ุงู„ุชู‚ุฏู… ุงู„ู…ุญุฑุฒ
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
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ูˆุนู† ุทุฑูŠู‚ ุงู„ุชููƒูŠุฑ ุงู„ุฎุงุทุฆ ูŠุนุชู‚ุฏูˆู† ุฃู†ู‡ู… ู‚ุฏ ุงู†ุชู‡ูˆุง.
06:28
The person you are right now
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ุงู„ุดุฎุต ุงู„ุฐูŠ ู‡ูˆ ุฃู†ุช ุงู„ุขู†
06:30
is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary
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ู‡ูˆ ูู‚ุท ุนุงุจุฑุŒ ูƒู„ุญุธุฉ ุณุฑูŠุนุฉ ูˆู…ุคู‚ุชุฉ
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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ู…ุซู„ู…ุง ูƒู†ุช ููŠ ุฃูŠ ูˆู‚ุช ู…ุถู‰.
06:36
The one constant in our life is change.
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ุงู„ุดูŠุก ุงู„ูˆุญูŠุฏ ุงู„ุซุงุจุช ููŠ ุญูŠุงุชู†ุง ู‡ูˆ ุงู„ุชุบูŠูŠุฑ.
06:40
Thank you.
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ุดูƒุฑู‹ุง ู„ูƒู….
06:42
(Applause)
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(ุชุตููŠู‚)
ุญูˆู„ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน

ุณูŠู‚ุฏู… ู„ูƒ ู‡ุฐุง ุงู„ู…ูˆู‚ุน ู…ู‚ุงุทุน ููŠุฏูŠูˆ YouTube ุงู„ู…ููŠุฏุฉ ู„ุชุนู„ู… ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ. ุณุชุฑู‰ ุฏุฑูˆุณ ุงู„ู„ุบุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ุชูŠ ูŠุชู… ุชุฏุฑูŠุณู‡ุง ู…ู† ู‚ุจู„ ู…ุฏุฑุณูŠู† ู…ู† ุงู„ุฏุฑุฌุฉ ุงู„ุฃูˆู„ู‰ ู…ู† ุฌู…ูŠุน ุฃู†ุญุงุก ุงู„ุนุงู„ู…. ุงู†ู‚ุฑ ู†ู‚ุฑู‹ุง ู…ุฒุฏูˆุฌู‹ุง ููˆู‚ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุฉ ุงู„ุฅู†ุฌู„ูŠุฒูŠุฉ ุงู„ู…ุนุฑูˆุถุฉ ุนู„ู‰ ูƒู„ ุตูุญุฉ ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู„ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ ู…ู† ู‡ู†ุงูƒ. ูŠุชู… ุชู…ุฑูŠุฑ ุงู„ุชุฑุฌู…ุงุช ุจุงู„ุชุฒุงู…ู† ู…ุน ุชุดุบูŠู„ ุงู„ููŠุฏูŠูˆ. ุฅุฐุง ูƒุงู† ู„ุฏูŠูƒ ุฃูŠ ุชุนู„ูŠู‚ุงุช ุฃูˆ ุทู„ุจุงุช ุŒ ูŠุฑุฌู‰ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ุจู†ุง ุจุงุณุชุฎุฏุงู… ู†ู…ูˆุฐุฌ ุงู„ุงุชุตุงู„ ู‡ุฐุง.

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