The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

Translator: Andreja Benčina Reviewer: Nika Kotnik

At every stage of our lives

Na vsaki stopnji življenja

we make decisions that will profoundly influence

sprejemamo odločitve, ki bodo globoko vplivale

the lives of the people we're going to become,

na življenja ljudi, v katere se bomo spremenili

and then when we become those people,

in ko postanemo ti ljudje,

we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

nismo vedno navdušeni nad preteklimi odločitvami.

So young people pay good money

Zato mladi dobro plačujejo za odstranjevanje tetovaž,

to get tattoos removed that teenagers

za katere so kot najstniki dobro plačali.

paid good money to get.

Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

Ljudje v srednjih letih hitijo z ločitvami od ljudi,

who young adults rushed to marry.

s katerimi so se kot mladi odrasli hiteli poročati.

Older adults work hard to lose

Starejši odrasli trdo delajo, da se znebijo tistega,

what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

za kar so v srednjih letih trdo delali, da bi imeli.

On and on and on.

In tako naprej in naprej.

The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

Kot psihologa me zato zanima vprašanje,

why do we make decisions

zakaj sprejemamo odločitve,

that our future selves so often regret?

ki jih naši poznejši mi tako pogosto obžalujejo.

Now, I think one of the reasons --

Mislim, da je eden od razlogov - to vas bom želel danes prepričati -

I'll try to convince you today —

is that we have a fundamental misconception

naše temeljno zmotno prepričanje

about the power of time.

o moči časa.

Every one of you knows that the rate of change

Vsi se zavedamo, da se hitrost sprememb zmanjša tekom človekovega življenja,

slows over the human lifespan,

that your children seem to change by the minute

da se vaši otroci navidez spreminjajo iz minute v minuto,

but your parents seem to change by the year.

vaši starši pa iz leta v leto.

But what is the name of this magical point in life

Kako pa se imenuje tista čarobna točka v življenju,

where change suddenly goes

v kateri se ta hitrost nenadoma spremeni iz galopa v plazenje?

from a gallop to a crawl?

Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

Je to adolescenca? So to srednja leta?

Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

Je to starost? Izkazalo se je,

for most people, is now,

da je odgovor za večino ljudi zdaj,

wherever now happens to be.

kjerkoli pač zdaj je.

What I want to convince you today

Kar vas hočem danes prepričati je to, da vsi hodimo naokrog z iluzijo,

is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

an illusion that history, our personal history,

z iluzijo, da se je zgodovina, naša osebna zgodovina, pravkar zaključila,

has just come to an end,

that we have just recently become

da smo pravkar postali ljudje,

the people that we were always meant to be

kakršni naj bi vedno bili

and will be for the rest of our lives.

in bomo taki do konca življenja.

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

Tu je nekaj podatkov v podporo moji trditvi.

So here's a study of change in people's

Tu je študija o spremembi osebnih vrednot v času.

personal values over time.

Here's three values.

Tu so tri vrednote.

Everybody here holds all of them,

Vsak med nami jih ima, ampak verjetno veste, da ko odraščate,

but you probably know that as you grow,

as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

ko se starate, se ravnovesje med njimi premika.

So how does it do so?

In kako se to zgodi?

Well, we asked thousands of people.

No, vprašali smo tisoče ljudi.

We asked half of them to predict for us

Polovico smo prosili, naj predvidijo,

how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

koliko se bodo njihove vrednote spremenile v naslednjih desetih letih

and the others to tell us

in drugo polovico, naj pove,

how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

koliko so se njihove vrednote spremenile v zadnjih desetih letih.

And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

In to nam je omogočilo zelo zanimivo analizo,

because it allowed us to compare the predictions

saj nam je omogočilo primerjavo predvidevanj ljudi, recimo starih 18 let,

of people, say, 18 years old,

to the reports of people who were 28,

s poročili tistih, starih 28 let

and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

in tako primerjavo za vsa življenjska obdobja.

Here's what we found.

Tu so ugotovitve.

First of all, you are right,

Najprej, prav imate, sprememba se upočasni s starostjo,

change does slow down as we age,

but second, you're wrong,

ampak po drugi strani nimate prav,

because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

ker se ne upočasni za toliko, kot mislimo, da se.

At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

Pri vseh starostih, od 18 do 68 v naši študiji,

people vastly underestimated how much change

so ljudje precej podcenjevali obseg sprememb,

they would experience over the next 10 years.

ki jih bodo doživeli v naslednjih 10 letih.

We call this the "end of history" illusion.

Temu pravimo iluzija "konca zgodovine".

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

Za boljšo predstavo velikosti tega učinka, povežite ti dve črti

you can connect these two lines,

and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

in lahko vidite, da osemnajstletniki predvidijo le tak obseg spremembe,

anticipate changing only as much

as 50-year-olds actually do.

kot ga dejansko doživijo petdesetletniki.

Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

In niso samo vrednote. So še druge stvari.

For example, personality.

Na primer, osebnost.

Many of you know that psychologists now claim

Mnogi veste, da psihologi danes trdijo,

that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

da obstaja pet temeljnih razsežnosti osebnosti:

neuroticism, openness to experience,

nevroticizem, odprtost za izkušnje,

agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

raven strinjanja, ekstravertiranost in vestnost.

Again, we asked people how much they expected

Spet smo vprašali ljudi, koliko pričakujejo, da se bodo spremenili

to change over the next 10 years,

v naslednjih 10 letih, in koliko menijo, da so se spremenili v zadnjih 10 letih

and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

and what we found,

in odkrili smo,

well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

no, navadili se boste gledati tale graf spet in spet,

because once again the rate of change

saj se stopnja sprememb upočasni, ko se staramo,

does slow as we age,

but at every age, people underestimate

ampak pri vsaki starosti ljudje podcenjujejo,

how much their personalities will change

koliko se bo njihova osebnost spremenila

in the next decade.

v naslednjem desetletju.

And it isn't just ephemeral things

In to niso samo minljive reči kot vrednote in osebnost.

like values and personality.

You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

Lahko jih vprašate, kaj imajo radi in kaj ne,

their basic preferences.

njihove osnovne preference.

For example, name your best friend,

Recimo, kdo je vaš najboljši prijatelj,

your favorite kind of vacation,

najljubši kraj za počitnice, najljubši hobi,

what's your favorite hobby,

what's your favorite kind of music.

najljubša zvrst glasbe.

People can name these things.

Ljudje lahko te reči imenujejo. Polovico prosimo, da nam pove:

We ask half of them to tell us,

"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

"Ali menite, da se bo to v naslednjih desetih letih spremenilo?"

and half of them to tell us,

in polovico, da nam pove:

"Did that change over the last 10 years?"

"Se je to v zadnjih desetih letih spremenilo?"

And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

in kar najdemo, zdaj ste že dvakrat videli

and here it is again:

in spet je tu:

people predict that the friend they have now

ljudje predvidevajo, da bodo prijatelja, ki ga imajo danes, imeli tudi čez 10 let,

is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

na počitnicah, v katerih danes najbolj uživajo, bodo uživali tudi čez 10 let,

they'll enjoy in 10 years,

and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

in ljudje, ki so danes 10 let starejši vsi pravijo:

"Eh, you know, that's really changed."

"Eh, to je danes vse drugače."

Does any of this matter?

Ali je to sploh važno?

Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

Je to samo oblika napačnega predvidevanja brez posledic?

No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

Ne, je kar pomembno, in dal vam bom primer, zakaj.

It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

To pomembno zaznamuje naše odločanje.

Bring to mind right now for yourself

Spomnite se svojega trenutno najljubšega glasbenika

your favorite musician today

and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

in tistega izpred desetih let.

I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

Moj je na zaslonu, za pomoč.

Now we asked people

Vprašali smo ljudi, naj za nas predvidijo,

to predict for us, to tell us

how much money they would pay right now

koliko denarja bi plačali ta trenutek

to see their current favorite musician

za ogled njihovega glasbenika,

perform in concert 10 years from now,

ko bo nastopal čez deset let,

and on average, people said they would pay

in v povprečju so odgovorili, da bi plačali okrog 95 EUR za vstopnico.

129 dollars for that ticket.

And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

Ko pa smo jih vprašali, koliko bi plačali,

to see the person who was their favorite

da bi videli nastop osebe, ki jim je bila najljubša pred desetimi leti, danes,

10 years ago perform today,

they say only 80 dollars.

so rekli le okrog 59 EUR.

Now, in a perfectly rational world,

V povsem razumskem svetu bi to morala biti enaka številka,

these should be the same number,

but we overpay for the opportunity

toda preplačamo za tisto priložnost,

to indulge our current preferences

da uživamo v naših trenutnih preferencah,

because we overestimate their stability.

saj precenjujemo njihovo stabilnost.

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

Zakaj se to zgodi? Nismo povsem prepričani,

but it probably has to do

ampak verjetno je povezano

with the ease of remembering

z lahkoto spominjanja

versus the difficulty of imagining.

v primerjavi s težavnostjo zamišljanja.

Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

Večina se spomni, kdo smo bili pred desetimi leti,

but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

ampak težko si nam je zamisliti si, kdo bomo postali

and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

in zmotno mislimo, da je zato, ker si je težko zamišljati,

it's not likely to happen.

tudi manj verjetno, da se bo zgodilo.

Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

Oprostite, ko ljudje rečejo: "Tega si ne predstavljam,"

they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

navadno govorijo o pomanjkanju lastne domišljije

and not about the unlikelihood

in ne o verjetnosti dogodka, ki ga opisujejo.

of the event that they're describing.

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

Pod črto, čas je močna sila.

It transforms our preferences.

Spremeni naše preference.

It reshapes our values.

Preoblikuje naše vrednote.

It alters our personalities.

Spremeni naše osebnosti.

We seem to appreciate this fact,

Zdi se, da to dejstvo cenimo,

but only in retrospect.

ampak samo ob pogledu nazaj.

Only when we look backwards do we realize

Šele ko se ozremo nazaj, spoznamo, koliko sprememb se lahko zgodi v desetletju.

how much change happens in a decade.

It's as if, for most of us,

Kot da bi bila za večino od nas sedanjost nek čaroben čas.

the present is a magic time.

It's a watershed on the timeline.

Je mejnik na časovni premici.

It's the moment at which we finally

Je trenutek, v katerem končno postanemo mi sami.

become ourselves.

Human beings are works in progress

Ljudje so dela v teku,

that mistakenly think they're finished.

ki si zmotno mislijo, da so končana.

The person you are right now

Oseba, ki ste v tem trenutku,

is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

je prehodna, tako minljiva in začasna

as all the people you've ever been.

kot vsi ljudje, ki ste nekoč bili.

The one constant in our life is change.

Edina stalnica v našem življenju je sprememba.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)