The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

Prevoditelj: Ines Sedlar Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

At every stage of our lives

U svakoj fazi naših života

we make decisions that will profoundly influence

donosimo odluke koje će duboko utjecati

the lives of the people we're going to become,

živote ljudi koji ćemo postati,

and then when we become those people,

i kada postanemo ti ljudi,

we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

nećemo uvijek biti oduševljeni odlukama koje smo donijeli.

So young people pay good money

Tako mladi ljudi prilično skupo plaćaju

to get tattoos removed that teenagers

da bi odstranili tetovaže koje su kao tinejdžeri

paid good money to get.

također skupo platili.

Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

Ljudi u srednjim godinama se žure rastaviti od ljudi

who young adults rushed to marry.

koje su kao mlade odrasle osobe žurili oženiti.

Older adults work hard to lose

Stariji odrasli naporno rade da bi izgubili

what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

ono za što u srednjim godinama naporno rade da bi dobili.

On and on and on.

I tako dalje i dalje i dalje.

The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

Pitanje koje me, kao psihologa, fascinira je

why do we make decisions

zašto donosimo odluke

that our future selves so often regret?

koje "budući mi" tako često požalimo?

Now, I think one of the reasons --

Sada, ja mislim da je jedan od razloga --

I'll try to convince you today —

u koji ću vas danas pokušati uvjeriti --

is that we have a fundamental misconception

taj što imamo temeljnu pogrešnu predodžbu

about the power of time.

o moćnom utjecaju vremena.

Every one of you knows that the rate of change

Svatko od vas zna da se brzina promjene

slows over the human lifespan,

usporava tijekom ljudskog životnog vijeka,

that your children seem to change by the minute

tako da izgleda kao da se vaša djeca mijenjaju kroz minute

but your parents seem to change by the year.

ali se vaši roditelji mijenjaju kroz godine.

But what is the name of this magical point in life

Ali kako se zove ta čarobna točka u životu

where change suddenly goes

kada promjena naglo krene

from a gallop to a crawl?

iz galopa u puzanje?

Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

Jesu li to adolescencijske godine? Jesu li to srednje godine?

Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

Je li to starost? Odgovor je, kako se ispostavilo,

for most people, is now,

za većinu ljudi, sada,

wherever now happens to be.

kadgod sada jest.

What I want to convince you today

Ono što vas danas želim uvjeriti

is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

je da svatko od nas hoda naokolo s iluzijom,

an illusion that history, our personal history,

iluzijom da je povijest, naša osobna povijest,

has just come to an end,

upravo završila,

that we have just recently become

da smo mi nedavno postali

the people that we were always meant to be

ljudi koji smo oduvijek htjeli biti

and will be for the rest of our lives.

i koji ćemo biti ostatak naših života.

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

Dopustite da vam dam nekoliko činjenica kako bih potvrdio tu tvrdnju.

So here's a study of change in people's

Ovo je istraživanje o promjeni u

personal values over time.

osobnim vrijednostima ljudi kroz vrijeme.

Here's three values.

Evo tri vrijednosti.

Everybody here holds all of them,

Svatko ovdje ima sve tri,

but you probably know that as you grow,

ali vjerojatno znate da kako odrastate,

as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

kako starite, tako se ravnoteža među ovim vrijednostima mijenja.

So how does it do so?

Kako?

Well, we asked thousands of people.

Pa, pitali smo tisuće ljudi.

We asked half of them to predict for us

Pitali smo polovicu da nam predvide

how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

koliko će se njihove vrijednosti promijeniti u sljedećih 10 godina,

and the others to tell us

druge smo pitali da nam kažu

how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

koliko su se njihove vrijednosti promijenile u zadnjih 10 godina.

And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

To nam je omogućilo da napravimo zaista zanimljivu analizu,

because it allowed us to compare the predictions

jer smo mogli usporediti predviđanja

of people, say, 18 years old,

ljudi, recimo, od osamnaest godina,

to the reports of people who were 28,

s izvješćima onih od 28,

and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

te raditi takvu vrstu analize kroz životni vijek.

Here's what we found.

Evo što smo ustanovili.

First of all, you are right,

Kao prvo, bili ste u pravu,

change does slow down as we age,

promjena se zaista usporava kako starimo,

but second, you're wrong,

ali kao drugo, bili ste u krivu,

because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

jer se ne usporava ni približno onoliko koliko mi mislimo.

At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

U svakoj dobi, od 18 do 68 godina u našem istraživanju,

people vastly underestimated how much change

ljudi mahom podcjenjuju koliko promjene

they would experience over the next 10 years.

će doživjeti kroz sljedećih 10 godina.

We call this the "end of history" illusion.

To smo prozvali iluzijom "kraja povijesti".

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

Da bismo vam približili ideju veličine ovog utjecaja,

you can connect these two lines,

spojite ove dvije linije,

and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

i ovo što vidite je da osamnaestogodišnjaci

anticipate changing only as much

predviđaju onoliko promjene

as 50-year-olds actually do.

koliko kao pedesetogodišnjaci zapravo dožive.

Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

No nisu samo vrijednosti u pitanju. Riječ je i o različitim drugim stvarima.

For example, personality.

Primjerice, osobnost.

Many of you know that psychologists now claim

Mnogi od vas znaju da danas psiholozi tvrde

that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

kako postoji pet temeljnih dimenzija osobnosti:

neuroticism, openness to experience,

neuroticizam, otvorenost prema iskustvu,

agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

ugodnost, ekstraverzija i savjesnosti.

Again, we asked people how much they expected

Ponovno smo pitali ljude koliko očekuju

to change over the next 10 years,

da će se promijeniti kroz sljedećih 10 godina,

and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

te koliko su se promijenili kroz proteklih 10 godina,

and what we found,

i otkrili smo,

well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

naviknuti ćete se gledati ovaj dijagram uvijek iznova,

because once again the rate of change

jer se ponovno stopa promjene

does slow as we age,

zaista usporava kako starimo,

but at every age, people underestimate

ali za svaku dob, ljudi podcjenjuju

how much their personalities will change

koliko će se njihova osobnost pomijeniti

in the next decade.

u sljedećem desetljeću.

And it isn't just ephemeral things

I nije samo riječ o prolaznim stvarima

like values and personality.

kao što su vrijednosti i osobnost.

You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

Možete pitati ljude o onome što im se sviđa ili ne sviđa,

their basic preferences.

njihove osnovne prioritete.

For example, name your best friend,

Primjerice, kako ti se zove najbolji prijatelj,

your favorite kind of vacation,

najdraža vrsta godišnjeg odmora,

what's your favorite hobby,

najdraži hobi,

what's your favorite kind of music.

najdraža vrsta glazbe.

People can name these things.

Ljudi mogu imenovati ove stvari.

We ask half of them to tell us,

Onda smo pitali polovicu da nam kaže,

"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

"Misliš li da će se to promijeniti kroz sljedećih 10 godina?"

and half of them to tell us,

a polovicu da nam kaže,

"Did that change over the last 10 years?"

"Je li se to promijenilo kroz prošlih 10 godina?"

And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

I otkrili smo, kao što ste već vidjeli dvaput do sada,

and here it is again:

i evo ga ponovno:

people predict that the friend they have now

ljudi predviđaju da će im prijatelj kojeg imaju sada

is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

biti i prijatelj kojeg će imati za 10 godina,

the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

vrsta godišnjeg odmora koja im se sviđa sada je ista

they'll enjoy in 10 years,

kao i ona koja će im se sviđati za 10 godina,

and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

no, s druge strane, ljudi koji su 10 godina stariji kažu,

"Eh, you know, that's really changed."

"Eh, znaš, to se zaista promijenilo."

Does any of this matter?

Je li što od ovoga bitno?

Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

Ovo je samo oblik krive predodžbe koja nema nikakvih posljedica?

No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

Ne, jako je bitno, i dat ću vam primjer zašto.

It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

To uvelike otežava naše donošenje odluka.

Bring to mind right now for yourself

Prisjetite se sada za sebe

your favorite musician today

svog najdražeg glazbenika danas

and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

i svog najdražeg glazbenika prije 10 godina.

I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

Mogu vam pokazati svoje na ekranu kako bih vam pomogao.

Now we asked people

Pitali smo ljude

to predict for us, to tell us

da nam predvide, da nam kažu

how much money they would pay right now

koliko bi novca sada platili

to see their current favorite musician

da vidite trenutnog najdražeg pjevača

perform in concert 10 years from now,

kako nastupa na koncertu za 10 godina,

and on average, people said they would pay

i u prosjeku su ljudi govorili kako bi platili

129 dollars for that ticket.

129 dolara za tu kartu.

And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

S druge strane, kada smo ih pitali koliko bi platili

to see the person who was their favorite

da vide pjevača koji im je bio najdraži

10 years ago perform today,

prije deset godina kako nastupa danas,

they say only 80 dollars.

rekli su samo 80 dolara.

Now, in a perfectly rational world,

Sada, u savršeno racionalnom svijetu,

these should be the same number,

ovo bi trebala biti ista brojka,

but we overpay for the opportunity

ali mi pretplatimo za priliku

to indulge our current preferences

da udovoljimo trenutnim sviđanjima

because we overestimate their stability.

jer precijenimo njihovu stabilnost.

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

Zašto se to događa? Nismo u potpunosti sigurni,

but it probably has to do

ali vjerojatno ima veze s

with the ease of remembering

lakoćom pamćenja

versus the difficulty of imagining.

nasuprot težini zamišljanja.

Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

Većina nas se sjeća tko su bili prije 10 godina

but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

ali nam je teško zamisliti tko ćemo biti,

and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

stoga pogrešno mislimo da zbog toga što je teško zamisliti,

it's not likely to happen.

nije vjerojatno da će se dogoditi.

Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

Oprostite, kada ljudi kažu "Ne mogu to zamisliti",

they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

obično govore o svom vlastitom nedostatku mašte,

and not about the unlikelihood

a ne o nevjerojatnosti

of the event that they're describing.

događaja o kojem govore.

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

Zaključak je da je vrijeme moćna sila.

It transforms our preferences.

Transformira naše preference.

It reshapes our values.

Mijenja naše vrijednosti.

It alters our personalities.

Mijenja naše osobnosti.

We seem to appreciate this fact,

Izgleda da poštujemo ovu činjenicu,

but only in retrospect.

ali samo u retrospektivi.

Only when we look backwards do we realize

Jer tek kad gledamo unatrag, shvatimo

how much change happens in a decade.

koliko promjene se dogodi u jednom desetljeću.

It's as if, for most of us,

Kao da je, za većinu nas,

the present is a magic time.

sadašnjost čarobno vrijeme.

It's a watershed on the timeline.

To je prekretnica u vremenskoj liniji,

It's the moment at which we finally

trenutak u kojem konačno

become ourselves.

postajemo mi sami.

Human beings are works in progress

Ljudska bića su rad u tijeku

that mistakenly think they're finished.

koji pogrešno misle da su dovršeni.

The person you are right now

Osoba koja si sada

is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

je jednako prolazna, koliko prolazna toliko i privremena

as all the people you've ever been.

kao svi ljudi koji si ikada bio.

The one constant in our life is change.

Jedina konstanta u našem životu je promjena.

Thank you.

Hvala

(Applause)

(Pljesak)