The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

Translator: Eva Hoxha Reviewer: Helena Bedalli

At every stage of our lives

Ne cdo faze te jetes sone

we make decisions that will profoundly influence

ne marrim vendime qe do te ndikojne rrenjesisht

the lives of the people we're going to become,

jeten e njerezve qe ne do te behemi,

and then when we become those people,

dhe me pas kur ne behemi ata njerez

we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

nuk jemi gjithmone entuziaste me vendimet e marra.

So young people pay good money

Keshtu, te rinjte paguajne shume te mira

to get tattoos removed that teenagers

per te hequr tatuzhet qe adoleshentet

paid good money to get.

paguajne per ti bere.

Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

Njerezit ne moshe te mesme nxitojne te divorcojne njerez

who young adults rushed to marry.

qe te rinj nxituan te martoheshin.

Older adults work hard to lose

Me te vjetrit punojne shume per te humbur

what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

ate qe ne moshe te mesme punuan shume per te fituar.

On and on and on.

Dhe keshtu vazhdon.

The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

Pyetja eshte, si nje psikolog, ajo qe me magjeps mua eshte,

why do we make decisions

perse ne marrim vendime

that our future selves so often regret?

per te cilat me vone pendohemi?

Now, I think one of the reasons --

Mendoj se njera nga arsyet eshte --

I'll try to convince you today —

Do te perpiqem t'iu bind juve sot --

is that we have a fundamental misconception

eshte se ne kemi nje keqkuptim baze

about the power of time.

per fuqine e kohes.

Every one of you knows that the rate of change

Cdokush prej jush e di se shkalla e ndryshimit

slows over the human lifespan,

ngadalsohet gjate jetes njerezore,

that your children seem to change by the minute

qe femijet tuaj duken sikur ndryshojne cdo minute

but your parents seem to change by the year.

por prinderit tuaj duken sikur ndryshojne cdo vit.

But what is the name of this magical point in life

Por cili eshte emri i kesaj pike magjike ne jete

where change suddenly goes

ku ndryshimi befasisht shkon

from a gallop to a crawl?

nga nje ritem i shpejte ne zvarritje?

Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

Eshte ne vitet e adoleshnces? Eshte ne moshen e mesme?

Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

Eshte kur plakemi? Pergjigja del se

for most people, is now,

per shume njerez eshte tani,

wherever now happens to be.

kurdoqofte tani ndodh te jete.

What I want to convince you today

Ajo qe dua t'ju bind juve sot

is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

eshte se te gjithe ne po ecim rrotull me nje iluzion,

an illusion that history, our personal history,

nje iluzion qe historia jone personale,

has just come to an end,

ka ardhur ne nje fund,

that we have just recently become

se vetem se fundmi ne jemi bere

the people that we were always meant to be

njerezit qe gjithmone donim te beheshim

and will be for the rest of our lives.

dhe do te jemi per pjesen tjeter te jetes.

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

Me lejoni t'ju tregoj disa te dhena per te mbeshtur kete.

So here's a study of change in people's

Eshte nje studim per ndryshimin e vlerave personale

personal values over time.

pergjate kohes.

Here's three values.

Keto jane tre vlerat.

Everybody here holds all of them,

Secili ketu i ka te gjitha ato,

but you probably know that as you grow,

por qe ndoshta e kuptoni kete nderkohe qe rriteni,

as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

nderkohe qe plakeni, balanca e ketyre vlerave ndryshon.

So how does it do so?

Si ndodh kjo?

Well, we asked thousands of people.

Per kete pyetem me mijera njerez.

We asked half of them to predict for us

Ne i kerkuam gjysmes se tyre te parashikonin per ne

how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

sesa shume vlerat e tyre do te ndyshojne ne 10 vitet e ardhshme

and the others to tell us

dhe te tjeret te na tregojne

how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

sesa shume vlerat e tyre kane ndryshuar ne 10 vitet e fundit.

And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

Dhe kjo na lejoi te bejme nje analize shume interesante,

because it allowed us to compare the predictions

sepse na lejoi te krahasojme parashikimet

of people, say, 18 years old,

e njerezve, le te themi 18 vjecareve,

to the reports of people who were 28,

ne raport me njerezit qe ishin 28 vjec,

and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

dhe per te bere kete lloj analize gjate gjithe jetes.

Here's what we found.

Ja se cfare gjetem.

First of all, you are right,

Fillimisht, keni te drejte,

change does slow down as we age,

ndryshimet zvogelohen me moshen,

but second, you're wrong,

por se dyti, ju jeni gabim,

because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

sepse nuk ngadalesohet aq sa ne mendonim.

At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

Ne cdo moshe, nga 28 vjec deri ne 68 vjec, qe ishte dhe kufiri ne te dhenat,

people vastly underestimated how much change

njerezit ne shumice e nenvleresojne sesa shume ndryshim

they would experience over the next 10 years.

do te perjetojne ne 10 vitet e ardhshme.

We call this the "end of history" illusion.

Ne e quajme kete iluzioni "fundi i historise"

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

Per t'iu dhene nje ide te shkalles se ketij efekti,

you can connect these two lines,

ju mund te lidhni keto dy linja,

and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

dhe ajo qe shihni ketu eshte qe nje 18 vjecar

anticipate changing only as much

e parashikon ndryshimin aq shume

as 50-year-olds actually do.

sa dhe nje 50 vjecar.

Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

Nuk jane vetem vlera. Jane nje teresi gjerash te tjera.

For example, personality.

Per shembull, personaliteti.

Many of you know that psychologists now claim

Shume prej jush e dine tashme se psikologet pohojne

that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

se jane pese dimensione thelbesore te personalitetit:

neuroticism, openness to experience,

neuroticizmi, hapja ndaj eksperiencave,

agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

pajtueshmeria, ekstraversion dhe ndergjegjshmeria.

Again, we asked people how much they expected

Perseri, ne i pyetem njerezit se cfare prisnin ata

to change over the next 10 years,

qe te ndryshonte ne 10 vitet ne vazhdim,

and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

dhe gjithashtu sesa shume ata kishin ndryshuar ne keto 10 vite,

and what we found,

dhe ajo qe gjetem,

well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

do te mesoheni duke e pare kete diagrame perseri e perseri,

because once again the rate of change

sepse perseri shkalla e ndryshimit

does slow as we age,

zvogelohet nderkohe qe ne moshohemi,

but at every age, people underestimate

por ne cdo moshe, njerezit e nenvleresojne

how much their personalities will change

sesa shume personaliteti i tyre do te ndryshoje

in the next decade.

ne dekaden e ardhshme.

And it isn't just ephemeral things

Dhe nuk eshte vetem nje gje kalimtare

like values and personality.

si vlerat dhe personaliteti.

You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

Mund te pyesni njerezit mbi ato qe pelqejne dhe nuk pelqejne,

their basic preferences.

per preferencat e tyre bazike.

For example, name your best friend,

Per shembull, me thuaj cili eshte shoku yt i ngushte,

your favorite kind of vacation,

pushimet e tua te preferuara,

what's your favorite hobby,

cili eshte hobi yt,

what's your favorite kind of music.

cila eshte lloji i muzikes qe te pelqen,

People can name these things.

Njerezit mund ti tregojne keto gjera.

We ask half of them to tell us,

Ne pyetem gjysmen e tyre te na tregojne,

"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

"A mendoni se kjo do te ndryshoje ne 10 vitet ne vazhdim?"

and half of them to tell us,

dhe gjysmen tjeter te na tregonte

"Did that change over the last 10 years?"

"A ndryshoi kjo ne 10 vitet e fundit?"

And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

Dhe ajo qe pame, e keni pare dy here deri tani,

and here it is again:

dhe ja ku eshte perseri:

people predict that the friend they have now

njerezit parashikojne se shoku qe kane tani

is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

eshte shoku qe do te kene ne 10 vitet ne vazhdim,

the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

pushimet me te cilat kenaqen tani jane ato

they'll enjoy in 10 years,

qe do te pelqejne dhe mbas 10 vitesh,

and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

dhe perseri, njerezit qe jane 10 vjet me te medhenj na thone,

"Eh, you know, that's really changed."

"Ah, e dini, kjo me te vertete ndryshoi."

Does any of this matter?

A ka rendesi ndonje nga keto?

Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

A eshte kjo nje forme e keqparashikimit qe nuk ka pasoja?

No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

Jo, ka rendesi, dhe une do t'ju jap nje shembull pse.

It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

Kjo nderlikon vendimarrjen tone ne menyra te rendesishme.

Bring to mind right now for yourself

Sillni ne mendje

your favorite musician today

kengetarin tuaj te preferuar sot

and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

dhe kengetarin tuaj te preferuar para 10 vitesh.

I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

Une e kam vendosur timin ne ekran ne menyre qe t'ju vij ne ndihme juve.

Now we asked people

Ne i kerkuam njerezve

to predict for us, to tell us

te parashikojne per ne, te na tregojne

how much money they would pay right now

sesa para do te paguanin pikerisht tani

to see their current favorite musician

per te pare kengetarin e tyre te preferuar

perform in concert 10 years from now,

te performoje ne nje koncert pas 10 vitesh nga tani,

and on average, people said they would pay

dhe mesatarisht, njerezit thane se do te paguanin

129 dollars for that ticket.

129 dollar per nje bilete.

And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

Dhe me pas, kur ne i pyetem sesa do te paguanin

to see the person who was their favorite

kengetarin qe ishte i preferuari i tyre

10 years ago perform today,

para 10 vitesh te performoje tani,

they say only 80 dollars.

ata thane vetem 80 dollar.

Now, in a perfectly rational world,

Ne nje bote plotesisht racionale,

these should be the same number,

duhet te ishte i njejti numer,

but we overpay for the opportunity

por ne mbipaguajme per mundesine

to indulge our current preferences

per te plotesuar preferencat tona aktuale

because we overestimate their stability.

sepse ne e mbivleresojme stabilitetin e tyre.

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

Por perse ndodh kjo? Ne nuk jemi plotesisht te sigurte,

but it probably has to do

por mundesisht ka te beje

with the ease of remembering

me lehtesine e te kujtuarit

versus the difficulty of imagining.

kundrejt veshtiresise per te imagjinuar.

Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

Shume nga ne mund te kujtojne sesi ishin para 10 vitesh,

but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

por e kane te veshtire te imagjinojne se kush do te jene,

and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

dhe gabimisht mendojme kete sepse eshte e veshtire te imagjinosh,

it's not likely to happen.

nuk ka mundesi te ndodhe.

Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

Me vjen keq, kur njerezit thone "nuk mund ta imagjinoj kete"

they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

ata ne te vertete po flasin per mungesen e tyre te imagjinates,

and not about the unlikelihood

dhe jo per pamundesine

of the event that they're describing.

e ngjarjes qe ata po pershkruajne.

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

Si perfundim, koha eshte nje force shume e fuqishme.

It transforms our preferences.

Ajo transformon preferencat tona.

It reshapes our values.

Ajo riformon vlerat tona.

It alters our personalities.

Ajo ndryshon personalitetin tone.

We seem to appreciate this fact,

Ne dukemi sikur e vleresojme kete fakt,

but only in retrospect.

por vetem ne retrospektive.

Only when we look backwards do we realize

Vetem kur veshtrojme pas e kuptojme

how much change happens in a decade.

sesa shume ndryshime ndodhin ne nje dekade,

It's as if, for most of us,

Eshte sikur per shume prej nesh,

the present is a magic time.

e tashmja eshte nje kohe magjike.

It's a watershed on the timeline.

Eshte nje cast vendimtar ne kohen tone.

It's the moment at which we finally

Eshte momenti te cilin te gjithe ne me ne fund

become ourselves.

behemi vetja.

Human beings are works in progress

Qeniet njerezore jane nje pune ne vazhdim

that mistakenly think they're finished.

qe gabimisht mendojne se kane perfunduar.

The person you are right now

Personi qe jeni tani

is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

eshte kaq i perkohshem, kalimtar, i shkurter

as all the people you've ever been.

si te gjithe njerezit qe ju keni qene.

The one constant in our life is change.

E vetmja konstante ne jeten tuaj eshte ndryshimi.

Thank you.

Ju falemnderit.

(Applause)

(Duartrokitje)