The psychology of your future self | Dan Gilbert

譯者: Adrienne Lin 審譯者: Kuan-Yi Li

At every stage of our lives

我們人生的每一階段

we make decisions that will profoundly influence

所做的決定都將深深影響

the lives of the people we're going to become,

我們未來的樣貌。

and then when we become those people,

但當我們成為那樣的人時，

we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.

卻不總是對自己 過去的決定感到開心。

So young people pay good money

所以年輕人花大錢

to get tattoos removed that teenagers

除去年少時花大錢刺的青；

paid good money to get.

Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people

中年人急著與年輕時 急著結婚的對象離婚；

who young adults rushed to marry.

Older adults work hard to lose

年紀大時又想減去中年時 花大功夫囤積起的脂肪。

what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.

On and on and on.

如此周而復始。

The question is, as a psychologist, that fascinates me is,

身為一位心理學家， 我著迷的問題是：

why do we make decisions

為什麼我們做的決定

that our future selves so often regret?

往往以後都會後悔？

Now, I think one of the reasons --

我想其中一個原因

I'll try to convince you today —

──我會試著說服大家──

is that we have a fundamental misconception

就是我們對於時間的力量 有著徹底的誤解。

about the power of time.

Every one of you knows that the rate of change

各位都知道改變的速度

slows over the human lifespan,

會隨著年紀增長變慢。

that your children seem to change by the minute

小孩子以分鐘為單位變化，

but your parents seem to change by the year.

但大人卻以年為單位變化。

But what is the name of this magical point in life

但人生那神奇的一刻叫什麼？

where change suddenly goes

改變的速度突然

from a gallop to a crawl?

從飛速變龜速的那一刻？

Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?

是在青少年時期嗎？

中年？老年？

Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,

對很多人來說， 答案就是「現在」。

for most people, is now,

wherever now happens to be.

不管「現在」是生命中哪一階段。

What I want to convince you today

我今天想說服各位的是，

is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,

所有人都身在一種錯覺中。

an illusion that history, our personal history,

認為我們的個人歷史

has just come to an end,

都到了終點；

that we have just recently become

認為我們就在剛剛那瞬間成為了

the people that we were always meant to be

命中註定的樣子，

and will be for the rest of our lives.

且一輩子將會就是這樣不變了。

Let me give you some data to back up that claim.

我用數據來支持我的論點。

So here's a study of change in people's

這項研究是關於人們

personal values over time.

價值觀隨著時間的改變。

Here's three values.

這三種價值觀人人都有。

Everybody here holds all of them,

but you probably know that as you grow,

但你大概知道，

as you age, the balance of these values shifts.

隨著年齡增長， 這些價值觀的比重會變。

So how does it do so?

怎麼變化呢？

Well, we asked thousands of people.

我們問了上千人。

We asked half of them to predict for us

請一半的人預測

how much their values would change in the next 10 years,

接下來十年，他們的 價值觀會有多少改變，

and the others to tell us

請另一半的人說

how much their values had changed in the last 10 years.

過去十年，他們的 價值觀改變多少。

And this enabled us to do a really interesting kind of analysis,

這讓我們能做出很有意思的分析，

because it allowed us to compare the predictions

因為這可以比較

of people, say, 18 years old,

一個 18 歲的人所做的預測

to the reports of people who were 28,

以及 28 歲的人對過去的觀察，

and to do that kind of analysis throughout the lifespan.

並對各年齡層都如此分析。

Here's what we found.

我們的發現如下：

First of all, you are right,

首先，各位是對的，

change does slow down as we age,

改變速度的確隨年齡增長變慢，

but second, you're wrong,

但接下來各位錯了，

because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.

改變速度遠比我們想像中快。

At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,

我們數據中的每一個年齡， 從 18 到 68 歲，

people vastly underestimated how much change

大家都大大低估了

接下來十年會經歷的改變有多少。

they would experience over the next 10 years.

We call this the "end of history" illusion.

我們稱之為「歷史終結錯覺」。

To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,

讓我說明這會影響的範圍。

you can connect these two lines,

兩條線連起來，

and what you see here is that 18-year-olds

你看到的是 18 歲的人

anticipate changing only as much

對改變的預期

as 50-year-olds actually do.

跟 50 歲的人真正經歷的改變一樣。

Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.

不只有價值觀， 還有許多事也一樣。

For example, personality.

舉例來說，個性。

Many of you know that psychologists now claim

很多人都知道心理學家現在聲稱

that there are five fundamental dimensions of personality:

有五大性格特質：

neuroticism, openness to experience,

情緒不穩定性、經驗開放性、

agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.

友善性、外向性、嚴謹性。

Again, we asked people how much they expected

再次地，我們請人預期

to change over the next 10 years,

接下來十年會有多少改變，

and also how much they had changed over the last 10 years,

以及過去十年經歷多少改變，

and what we found,

我們發現，

well, you're going to get used to seeing this diagram over and over,

這個表會一直出現，

because once again the rate of change

因為再次地，改變的速度

does slow as we age,

的確隨年齡增長而變慢，

but at every age, people underestimate

但在每一個年紀，人們都低估了

how much their personalities will change

接下來的十年

in the next decade.

他們的個性會有多少改變。

And it isn't just ephemeral things

不只是短暫的東西，

like values and personality.

像價值觀、個性等，

You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,

還可以問問人們的好惡，

their basic preferences.

基本的喜好。

For example, name your best friend,

舉例來說，講出摯友的名字、

your favorite kind of vacation,

最喜歡的假期是怎樣、

what's your favorite hobby,

最喜歡的嗜好、

what's your favorite kind of music.

最愛的音樂類型等。

People can name these things.

這些東西人人都說得出。

We ask half of them to tell us,

我們問一半的人：

"Do you think that that will change over the next 10 years?"

「你覺得這些東西 十年後會改變嗎？」

and half of them to tell us,

並問另一半的人：

"Did that change over the last 10 years?"

「這些問題的答案 跟十年前一樣嗎？」

And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,

同樣的圖出現兩次了，我們發現，

and here it is again:

再來看一次：

people predict that the friend they have now

人們預測他們現在的朋友，

is the friend they'll have in 10 years,

十年後一樣會是好朋友、

the vacation they most enjoy now is the one

他們現在最愛的假期，

they'll enjoy in 10 years,

十年後依然會喜歡。

and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,

而那些年紀大上十歲的人說

"Eh, you know, that's really changed."

「唉，都跟以前不一樣。」

Does any of this matter?

那這很重要嗎？

Is this just a form of mis-prediction that doesn't have consequences?

這只是某種形式的錯估， 且不會有任何影響？

No, it matters quite a bit, and I'll give you an example of why.

不，這其實影響很大， 我來舉例說明。

It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.

這讓我們做決定時變得很困難。

Bring to mind right now for yourself

現在想想你現在

your favorite musician today

最喜歡的音樂人

and your favorite musician 10 years ago.

以及十年前最愛的音樂人。

I put mine up on the screen to help you along.

我將自己的答案放上來 幫助各位思考。

Now we asked people

現在，我們請人預估

to predict for us, to tell us

並告訴我們，

how much money they would pay right now

他們現在願意付多少錢

to see their current favorite musician

去看他們目前最愛的音樂人

perform in concert 10 years from now,

十年後的演唱會。

and on average, people said they would pay

平均來說，答案是

129 dollars for that ticket.

一張票願意花 129 美金。

And yet, when we asked them how much they would pay

然而，當問到他們願意付多少錢

to see the person who was their favorite

去看他們十年前喜歡的音樂人

10 years ago perform today,

現在的演唱會，

they say only 80 dollars.

他們的答案只有 80 美金。

Now, in a perfectly rational world,

在一個完全理性的世界，

these should be the same number,

這兩個答案應該要是相同的，

but we overpay for the opportunity

但我們多付了錢

to indulge our current preferences

去享受我們目前的喜好，

because we overestimate their stability.

因為我們高估了自己的穩定性。

Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,

為什麼會這樣？ 我們也無法完全確定，

but it probably has to do

但這大概是因為

with the ease of remembering

回憶很容易

versus the difficulty of imagining.

而想像很困難。

Most of us can remember who we were 10 years ago,

大多數人記得十年前自己的樣子，

but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,

但卻很難想像未來的樣子，

and then we mistakenly think that because it's hard to imagine,

然後便錯誤地認為： 因為很難想像，

it's not likely to happen.

所以不太可能發生。

Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"

抱歉，當有人說 「我無法想像那會是怎樣」時，

they're usually talking about their own lack of imagination,

通常都是在說自己缺乏想像力，

and not about the unlikelihood

而不是他們所形容的事件

of the event that they're describing.

真的有多不可能發生。

The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.

重點是，時間是很強大的力量。

It transforms our preferences.

它轉變我們的好惡、

It reshapes our values.

重塑我們的價值、

It alters our personalities.

改變我們的個性。

We seem to appreciate this fact,

我們似乎認同這個事實，

but only in retrospect.

但僅在回顧的時候如此。

Only when we look backwards do we realize

只有當我們回顧時才會發現

how much change happens in a decade.

十年之間有多少改變，

It's as if, for most of us,

就好像對我們大多數人來說

the present is a magic time.

當下是個很神奇的時間。

It's a watershed on the timeline.

這是時間線的分水嶺。

It's the moment at which we finally

就在這一刻，

become ourselves.

我們終於成為自己。

Human beings are works in progress

人類不斷變化，

that mistakenly think they're finished.

卻誤以為自己已經不會再改變。

The person you are right now

你現在的樣子

is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary

是短暫、轉瞬即逝的，

as all the people you've ever been.

就如你過去的自己一樣。

The one constant in our life is change.

人生唯一不變的，就是不斷改變。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）