Why are we happy? Why aren't we happy? | Dan Gilbert

Prevodilac: Alexandra Ilić Lektor: Sandra Gojic

Kada imate 21 minut za izlaganje,

When you have 21 minutes to speak,

dva miliona godina se čine jako dugim.

two million years seems like a really long time.

Međutim, sa aspekta evolucije, dva miliona godina nisu ništa.

But evolutionarily, two million years is nothing.

A ipak, za ta dva miliona godina, masa ljudskog mozga se gotovo utrostručila

And yet, in two million years,

the human brain has nearly tripled in mass,

krećući se od svega pola kilograma teškog mozga

going from the one-and-a-quarter-pound brain of our ancestor here, Habilis,

našeg pretka ovde, Habilisa,

pa do skoro 1,5kg teške veknice mesa koju svako ovde ima među ušima.

to the almost three-pound meatloaf everybody here has between their ears.

Šta je to tako dobro u vezi sa tako velikim mozgom,

What is it about a big brain

kada je priroda bila toliko rada da svakome od nas podari po jedan?

that nature was so eager for every one of us to have one?

Pa, ispostavilo se da kada mozak utrostruči svoju masu,

Well, it turns out when brains triple in size,

they don't just get three times bigger; they gain new structures.

on ne postaje samo veći, već dobija i neke nove strukture.

And one of the main reasons our brain got so big is because it got a new part,

Jedan od glavnih razloga zašto je naš mozak postao tako veliki

je taj što je dobio novi deo, čeoni režanj,

called the "frontal lobe,"

a naročito važan njegov deo je prefrontalni korteks.

particularly, a part called the "prefrontal cortex."

E sad, šta nam to donosi prefrontalni korteks što bi trebalo

What does a prefrontal cortex do for you

da opravda čitav arhitektonski preobražaj ljudske lobanje

that should justify the entire architectural overhaul of the human skull

u treptaju evolutivnog vremena?

in the blink of evolutionary time?

Zapravo, prefrontalni korteks čini dosta toga,

Well, it turns out the prefrontal cortex does lots of things,

ali jedna od njegovih najbitnijih funkcija

but one of the most important things it does is it's an experience simulator.

je to što je on jedna vrsta simulatora iskustva.

Piloti vežbaju u simulatorima leta

Pilots practice in flight simulators

so that they don't make real mistakes in planes.

kako ne bi pravili stvarne greške u avionima.

Human beings have this marvelous adaptation

Ljudska bića imaju tu čudesnu adaptaciju

that they can actually have experiences in their heads

da mogu da prožive iskustva u svojoj glavi,

before they try them out in real life.

pre nego što ih isprobaju u stvarnom životu.

This is a trick that none of our ancestors could do,

Taj trik koji nijedan od naših predaka nije umeo da izvede,

and that no other animal can do quite like we can.

niti to sem nas može učiniti ijedna druga životinja.

It's a marvelous adaptation.

To je zaista čudesna adaptacija.

It's up there with opposable thumbs and standing upright and language

Ona je uz pokretni palac, uspravni hod i jezik

as one of the things that got our species out of the trees

jedna od stvari koja je našu vrstu izvukla iz drveća

and into the shopping mall.

i uvukla u tržne centre.

(Laughter)

Sad -- (Smeh) -- svi ste vi ovo radili.

All of you have done this.

Mislim, znate,

Ben and Jerry's doesn't have "liver and onion" ice cream,

poslastičari ne prodaju sladoled od jetre i crnog luka.

and it's not because they whipped some up, tried it and went, "Yuck!"

Ne zato što su umutili malo, probali i rekli ''Bljak''.

It's because, without leaving your armchair,

Već zato što, ni ne ustavši iz fotelje,

you can simulate that flavor and say "yuck" before you make it.

možete da simulirate ukus i kažete bljak pre nego što ga napravite.

Let's see how your experience simulators are working.

Pogledajmo kako simulatori iskustva funkcionišu.

Let's just run a quick diagnostic

Prođimo jednu kratku dijagnostiku pre nego što nastavim sa ostatkom govora.

before I proceed with the rest of the talk.

Here's two different futures that I invite you to contemplate.

Evo dve različite budućnosti koje vas pozivam da zamislite,

You can try to simulate them and tell me which one you think you might prefer.

možete pokušati da ih simulirate i kažete mi koju mislite

da biste možda radije izabrali.

One of them is winning the lottery. This is about 314 million dollars.

Jedna od njih je dobitak na lotou. To je oko 314 miliona dolara.

And the other is becoming paraplegic.

A druga je, postati paraplegičar.

(Laughter)

Dakle, razmislite o tome na trenutak.

Just give it a moment of thought.

You probably don't feel like you need a moment of thought.

Verovatno mislite da uopšte ni ne morate da razmišljate.

Interestingly, there are data on these two groups of people,

Ono što je zanimljivo je da postoje podaci o ove dve grupe ljudi,

data on how happy they are.

podaci o tome koliko su srećni.

And this is exactly what you expected, isn't it?

I ovo je upravo ono što ste i očekivali, zar ne?

But these aren't the data. I made these up!

Ali ovo nisu stvarni podaci. Ja sam ih izmislio!

These are the data.

Ovo su podaci. Pali ste na blic pitanju,

You failed the pop quiz, and you're hardly five minutes into the lecture.

a nije prošlo ni 5 minuta predavanja.

Because the fact is that a year after losing the use of their legs

Jer činjenica je da godinu dana nakon gubitka funkcije nogu,

and a year after winning the lotto,

i godinu dana nakon dobitka na lotou, srećni dobitnici i paraplegičari

lottery winners and paraplegics are equally happy with their lives.

su zapravo podjednako zadovoljni svojim životima.

Ali, nemojte biti previše razočarani jer ste pali na prvom blic pitanju,

Don't feel too bad about failing the first pop quiz,

because everybody fails all of the pop quizzes all of the time.

jer svi padaju na svim blic pitanjima sve vreme.

Istraživanje na kom je radila moja laboratorija,

The research that my laboratory has been doing,

na kom su radili ekonomisti i psiholozi širom zemlje,

that economists and psychologists around the country have been doing,

otkrilo nam je nešto zaista zapanjujuće.

has revealed something really quite startling to us,

Nešto što nazivamo uticaj događaja,

something we call the "impact bias,"

which is the tendency for the simulator to work badly,

što je tendencija simulatora da ne radi kako treba.

for the simulator to make you believe that different outcomes are more different

Da vas simulator navede da poverujete da su različiti ishodi

različitiji nego što zapravo jesu.

than, in fact, they really are.

From field studies to laboratory studies,

Iz studija sprovedenih na terenu i u laboratoriji,

we see that winning or losing an election,

zaključujemo da pobediti ili izgubiti na izborima,

gaining or losing a romantic partner,

steći ili izgubiti ljubavnog partnera,

getting or not getting a promotion,

dobiti unapređenje ili ne, proći ispit na fakultetu ili ne,

passing or not passing a college test,

on and on,

i tako dalje, imaju daleko manji uticaj, intenzitet i trajanje

have far less impact, less intensity and much less duration

nego što ljudi očekuju.

than people expect them to have.

Zapravo, nedavna studija -- ovo me fascinira --

A recent study -- this almost floors me --

nedavna studija koja pokazuje kako velike životne traume utiču na ljude

a recent study showing how major life traumas affect people

navodi da ukoliko se dogodilo pre više od 3 meseca,

suggests that if it happened over three months ago,

sa svega nekoliko izuzetaka,

nema apsolutno nikakvog uticaja na vašu sreću.

with only a few exceptions,

it has no impact whatsoever on your happiness.

Zašto?

Zato što se sreća može sintetisati.

Why?

Because happiness can be synthesized.

Ser Tomas Braun je 1642. godine napisao ''Ja sam najsrećniji čovek na svetu.

Sir Thomas Brown wrote in 1642, "I am the happiest man alive.

U sebi posedujem ono što može siromaštvo pretvoriti u bogatstvo,

nemaštinu u prosperitet.

I have that in me that can convert poverty to riches, adversity to prosperity.

Manje sam ranjiv no Ahil, sudbina me ne može baš nigde pogoditi.''

I am more invulnerable than Achilles; fortune hath not one place to hit me."

Kakvu neverovatnu mašinu ovaj čovek ima u glavi?

What kind of remarkable machinery does this guy have in his head?

Pa, ispostavilo se da je to upravo ona neverovatna mašina

Well, it turns out it's precisely the same remarkable machinery that all of us have.

koju svako od nas ima.

Ljudska bića poseduju nešto što bi se moglo okarakterisati

Human beings have something

kao psihološki imuni sistem.

that we might think of as a "psychological immune system,"

Sistem kognitivnih procesa, uglavnom nesvesnih,

a system of cognitive processes, largely nonconscious cognitive processes,

koji im pomažu da promene svoj pogled na svet,

that help them change their views of the world,

kako bi se mogli osećati bolje po pitanju svetova u kojima se nalaze.

so that they can feel better about the worlds

Poput Ser Tomasa, i vi imate ovu mašinu.

in which they find themselves.

Za razliku od Ser Tomasa, vi to izgleda ne znate.

Like Sir Thomas, you have this machine.

Unlike Sir Thomas, you seem not to know it.

Mi sintetišemo sreću, ali mislimo da je sreća nešto što se pronalazi.

We synthesize happiness, but we think happiness is a thing to be found.

Ne moram da vam ponudim

previše primera ljudi koji sintetišu sreću, pretpostavljam.

Now, you don't need me to give you

too many examples of people synthesizing happiness, I suspect,

Iako ću vam pokazati dokaze dobijene eksperimentima,

dokaze zapravo uopšte nije teško naći.

though I'm going to show you some experimental evidence.

Kao izazov sebi, kako ovo govorim s vremena na vreme na predavanjima,

You don't have to look very far for evidence.

I took a copy of the "New York Times"

uzeo sam primerak Njujork Tajmsa i pokušao da nađem

and tried to find some instances of people synthesizing happiness.

primere ljudi koji sintetišu sreću.

I evo tri čoveka koji to čine.

Here are three guys synthesizing happiness.

"Mnogo mi je bolje, u fizičkom, finansijskom, emotivnom, mentalnom

"I'm better off physically, financially, mentally ..."

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience."

i skoro svakom drugom smislu." "Ne žalim ni trenutka.

"I believe it turned out for the best."

Bilo je to čudesno iskustvo."

Who are these characters who are so damn happy?

"Verujem da je ispalo najbolje što je moglo."

Ko su ovi ljudi koji su tako prokleto srećni?

The first one is Jim Wright.

Some of you are old enough to remember:

Prvi je Džim Rajt.

he was the chairman of the House of Representatives,

Neki od vas su dovoljno stari da bi ga se sećali kao predsednika

and he resigned in disgrace

Predstavničkog doma koji je podneo ostavku

when this young Republican named Newt Gingrich found out about

nakon što ga je mladi republikanac po imenu Njut Gingrič

a shady book deal that he had done.

He lost everything.

razotkrio zbog sumnjivog posla oko izdavanja knjige.

The most powerful Democrat in the country lost everything:

Izgubio je sve. Najmoćniji demokrata u zemlji,

he lost his money, he lost his power.

izgubio je sve.

What does he have to say all these years later about it?

Novac, moć.

"I am so much better off physically, financially, mentally

Šta ima da kaže o tome nakon svih ovih godina?

"Mnogo mi je bolje, u fizičkom, finansijskom, mentalnom

and in almost every other way."

What other way would there be to be better off?

i skoro svakom drugom smislu."

Vegetably? Minerally? Animally?

U kom još smislu bi mu moglo biti bolje?

He's pretty much covered them there.

Biljnom? Mineralnom? Životinjskom? Pokrio ih je otprilike sve.

Moreese Bickham is somebody you've never heard of.

Moreese Bickham uttered these words upon being released.

Moris Bikam je neko za koga nikad niste čuli.

Moris Bikam prozborio je ove reči nakon što su ga pustili.

He was 78 years old.

He'd spent 37 years in Louisiana State Penitentiary

Imao je 78 godina. Proveo je 37 godina

for a crime he didn't commit.

u državnom zatvoru u Luizijani zbog zločina koji nije počinio.

He was ultimately [released for good behavior halfway through his sentence.]

Konačno je pušten iz zatvora,

What did he have to say about his experience?

zbog dobrog vladanja, odsluživši pola kazne.

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience."

I šta je imao da kaže o ovom iskustvu?

Glorious!

"Ne žalim ni trenutka. Bilo je to čudesno iskustvo."

This guy's not saying, "There were some nice guys. They had a gym."

Čudesno! Ovaj lik ne kaže,

"Glorious" -- a word we usually reserve for something like a religious experience.

"Bilo je nekih finih momaka. Imali smo teretanu."

Ne, rekao je "čudesno",

Harry S. Langerman uttered these words.

reč koju obično vezujemo za nešto poput religijskog iskustva.

He's somebody you might have known but didn't,

Hari S. Langerman izgovorio je ove reči, neko za koga ste mogli čuti,

because in 1949, he read a little article in the paper

ali ipak niste, jer je 1949. pročitao kratak članak u novinama

about a hamburger stand owned by these two brothers named McDonald.

o štandu sa hamburgerima čiji su vlasnici bili dvojica braće MekDonalds.

And he thought, "That's a really neat idea!"

So he went to find them.

Pomislio je: "To je baš fina ideja!"

They said, "We can give you a franchise on this for 3,000 bucks."

I otišao da ih potraži. Oni su rekli:

Harry went back to New York, asked his brother, an investment banker,

"Možemo ti prodati franšizu za 3000 dolara."

Hari se vratio u Njujork, zatražio od brata koji je bio investicioni bankar

to loan him 3,000 dollars, and his brother's immortal words were,

"You idiot, nobody eats hamburgers."

zajam od 3000 dolara,

i besmrtne reči njegovog brata bile su: "Idiote, niko ne jede hamburgere."

He wouldn't lend him the money.

Of course, six months later, Ray Kroc had exactly the same idea.

Nije mu pozajmio novac i naravno, 6 meseci kasnije

It turns out, people do eat hamburgers,

Rej Krok je došao na istu ideju.

and Ray Kroc, for a while, became the richest man in America.

Ispostavilo se da ljudi ipak jedu hamburgere

i Rej Krok je na neko vreme postao najbogatiji čovek u Americi.

And then, finally,

some of you recognize this young photo of Pete Best,

I na kraju -- znate, u najboljem slučaju --

who was the original drummer for the Beatles,

neki od vas će prepoznati na ovoj slici Pita Besta,

until they, you know, sent him out on an errand and snuck away

koji je bio prvobitni bubnjar Bitlsa,

and picked up Ringo on a tour.

Well, in 1994, when Pete Best was interviewed --

dok ga nisu, znate, poslali da nešto završi, išunjali se

yes, he's still a drummer; yes, he's a studio musician --

i poveli Ringa na turneju.

he had this to say: "I'm happier than I would have been with the Beatles."

E pa, 1994. godine kada su intervjuisali Pita Besta

-- da, i dalje je bubnjar; da, studijski je muzičar --

OK, there's something important to be learned from these people,

Rekao je sledeće: "Srećniji sam nego što bih bio sa Bitlsima."

and it is the secret of happiness.

Here it is, finally to be revealed.

U redu. Postoji nešto jako važno što bi trebalo naučiti od ovih ljudi,

First: accrue wealth, power and prestige,

a to je tajna sreće.

then lose it.

Evo je, konačno će biti razotkrivena.

(Laughter)

Prvo: nagomilajte bogatstvo, moć i prestiž,

Second: spend as much of your life in prison as you possibly can.

a onda ih izgubite. (Smeh)

(Laughter)

Third: make somebody else really, really rich.

Drugo: provedite što veći deo svog života u zatvoru.

(Smeh) Treće: načinite nekog drugog jako, jako bogatim. (Smeh)

And finally: never, ever join the Beatles.

(Laughter)

Yeah, right.

Because when people synthesize happiness,

I konačno: nemojte nikada postati član Bitlsa. (Smeh)

as these gentlemen seem to have done,

Ok. Sada ja, poput Ze Franka, mogu da predvidim vašu sledeću misao,

we all smile at them, but we kind of roll our eyes and say,

"Yeah, right, you never really wanted the job."

koja je: "Da, baš."

"Oh yeah, right -- you really didn't have that much in common with her,

Jer kada ljudi sintetišu sreću, kao što se čini da su ova gospoda radila,

and you figured that out just about the time

mi im se svi nasmešimo, ali ipak prevrnemo očima i kažemo:

she threw the engagement ring in your face."

We smirk,

"Da baš, nisi ti ni hteo taj posao."

because we believe that synthetic happiness is not of the same quality

"Oh, da, naravno. Niste ni imali

as what we might call "natural happiness."

nešto puno zajedničkog

i otkrio si to taman tu u vreme

What are these terms?

Natural happiness is what we get when we get what we wanted,

kada ti je bacala verenički prsten u facu."

Zlobno se smešimo jer verujemo da sintetička sreća

and synthetic happiness is what we make when we don't get what we wanted.

nije jednako dobra kao ono što bismo nazvali prirodnom srećom.

And in our society, we have a strong belief

Šta se pod ovim izrazima podrazumeva?

that synthetic happiness is of an inferior kind.

Prirodna sreća je ono što dobijemo kada dobijemo ono što želimo,

a sintetička sreća je ono što stvorimo kada ne dobijemo ono što želimo.

Why do we have that belief?

Well, it's very simple.

What kind of economic engine would keep churning

A u našem društvu, mi snažno verujemo

if we believed that not getting what we want

da je sintetička sreća inferiornija.

could make us just as happy as getting it?

Otkud takvo verovanje?

Jednostavno je. Kakav ekonomski motor

With all apologies to my friend Matthieu Ricard,

bi mogao da nastavi sa radom

a shopping mall full of Zen monks

ako bismo verovali da možemo biti jednako srećni bez obzira

is not going to be particularly profitable,

da li dobijemo ono što želimo ili ne?

because they don't want stuff enough.

(Laughter)

Uz dužno poštovanje mom prijatelju Metju Rikardu,

I want to suggest to you

that synthetic happiness is every bit as real and enduring

tržni centar pun Zen monaha

neće mnogo profitirati

as the kind of happiness you stumble upon

jer oni prosto ne žele te stvari dovoljno.

when you get exactly what you were aiming for.

Now, I'm a scientist, so I'm going to do this not with rhetoric,

Želim da vam ukažem na to da je sintetička sreća

but by marinating you in a little bit of data.

podjednako realna i trajna

Let me first show you an experimental paradigm

kao i ona sreća koju iskusite

that's used to demonstrate the synthesis of happiness

kada dobijete upravo ono što ste želeli.

Ali, ja sam naučnik, tako da se neću služiti retorikom,

among regular old folks.

This isn't mine,

it's a 50-year-old paradigm called the "free choice paradigm."

već ću vam na srebrnom tanjiru ponuditi podatke.

Dopustite mi da za početak pokažem eksperimentalnu paradigmu koja se koristi

It's very simple.

You bring in, say, six objects,

da bi se demonstrirala sinteza sreće

and you ask a subject to rank them from the most to the least liked.

među običnim ljudima. I ovo nije moj izum.

In this case, because this experiment uses them,

Ovo je 50 godina stara paradigma poznata kao paradigma slobodnog izbora.

these are Monet prints.

Veoma je jednostavna.

Everybody ranks these Monet prints from the one they like the most

Izložite, recimo, 6 predmeta,

i zamolite ispitanika da ih poređa prema stepenu sviđanja.

to the one they like the least.

Now we give you a choice:

"We happen to have some extra prints in the closet.

Pošto ih eksperiment o kom ću govoriti koristi,

We're going to give you one as your prize to take home.

ovo su Moneove reprodukcije.

Dakle, svako može da ih poređa

We happen to have number three and number four," we tell the subject.

prema stepenu sviđanja.

Sada vam nudimo izbor:

This is a bit of a difficult choice,

"Slučajno imamo nekoliko reprodukcija viška u ormaru.

because neither one is preferred strongly to the other,

but naturally, people tend to pick number three,

Daćemo Vam jednu kao nagradu, da je ponesete kući.

Nekim slučajem imamo broj tri i broj četiri",

because they liked it a little better than number four.

kažemo ispitaniku. Ovo je malo teži izbor,

Sometime later -- it could be 15 minutes, it could be 15 days --

jer nijedna od njih vam se ne sviđa mnogo više od one druge,

the same stimuli are put before the subject,

ali prirodno, ljudi uglavnom biraju broj tri

and the subject is asked to re-rank the stimuli.

jer im se sviđa malo više od broja četiri.

"Tell us how much you like them now."

What happens?

Nakon određenog vremena -- to može biti 15 minuta ili 15 dana --

Watch as happiness is synthesized.

This is the result that's been replicated over and over again.

isti stimulusi su prezentovani ispitaniku,

You're watching happiness be synthesized.

i ispitanik je zamoljen da ih ponovo oceni.

Would you like to see it again?

"Recite nam koliko Vam se sada sviđaju."

Šta se događa? Posmatrajte kako se sreća sintetiše.

Happiness!

"The one I got is really better than I thought!

Ovo je rezultat koji se ponavljao iznova i iznova.

That other one I didn't get sucks!"

That's the synthesis of happiness.

Upravo gledate kako se sreća sintetiše.

(Laughter)

Želite li da vidite opet? Sreća!

Now, what's the right response to that?

"Yeah, right!"

"Ona koju sam dobio je toliko bolja nego što sam mislio!

Now, here's the experiment we did,

Ona druga je tako bezveze!"

and I hope this is going to convince you

(Smeh) To je sinteza sreće.

that "Yeah, right!" was not the right response.

I šta je pravi odgovor na to? "Da, baš!"

We did this experiment with a group of patients

who had anterograde amnesia.

These are hospitalized patients.

Evo sada eksperimenta koji smo mi sproveli,

Most of them have Korsakoff syndrome,

i nadam se da će vas ubediti da

a polyneuritic psychosis.

"Da, baš!" nije bio pravi odgovor.

They drank way too much, and they can't make new memories.

Sproveli smo ovaj eksperiment na grupi pacijenata

koji pate od anterogradne amnezije. To su hospitalizovani pacijenti.

They remember their childhood, but if you walk in and introduce yourself

Većina njih ima Korsakovljev sindrom,

and then leave the room,

jednu vrstu psihoze koja -- pili su previše,

when you come back, they don't know who you are.

We took our Monet prints to the hospital.

ne mogu da stvaraju nova sećanja.

Ok? Sećaju se svog detinjstva, ali ako uđete i predstavite se

And we asked these patients to rank them

from the one they liked the most to the one they liked the least.

i potom napustite prostoriju,

kada se vratite oni neće znati ko ste vi.

We then gave them the choice between number three and number four.

Poneli smo Moneove reprodukcije u bolnicu.

Like everybody else, they said,

Zamolili smo ove pacijente da ih poređaju

"Gee, thanks Doc! That's great! I could use a new print.

od one koja im se sviđa najviše do one koja im se sviđa najmanje.

I'll take number three."

We explained we would have number three mailed to them.

Tada smo im ponudili izbor između broja tri i broja četiri.

We gathered up our materials,

Poput svih ostalih, rekli su,

and we went out of the room and counted to a half hour.

"O, hvala doktore! Super! Dobro će mi doći nova reprodukcija.

(Laughter)

Uzeću broj tri."

Back into the room, we say, "Hi, we're back."

Objasnili smo im da ćemo im poslati broj tri poštom.

The patients, bless them, say, "Ah, Doc, I'm sorry,

Pokupili smo svoj materijal i izašli iz prostorije,

I've got a memory problem; that's why I'm here.

i sačekali da prođe pola sata.

If I've met you before, I don't remember."

Vrativši se u prostoriju, rekli smo, "Zdravo, evo nas opet."

"Really, Jim, you don't remember? I was just here with the Monet prints?"

Pacijenti, bog ih blagoslovio, su rekli: "Ah, doktore, izvinite,

"Sorry, Doc, I just don't have a clue."

"No problem, Jim.

imam problema sa pamćenjem, zato sam ovde.

All I want you to do is rank these for me,

Ako smo se već upoznali, ne sećam se."

from the one you like the most to the one you like the least."

"Stvarno, Džim, ne sećaš se? Sad sam bio ovde

sa Moneovim reprodukcijama?"

What do they do?

"Izvinite, doktore, nemam ni najblažu predstavu."

Well, let's first check and make sure they're really amnesiac.

"Nema problema, Džim. Sve što hoću je da mi poređaš ove reprodukcije

We ask these amnesiac patients to tell us which one they own,

od one koja ti se sviđa najviše do one koja ti se sviđa najmanje."

which one they chose last time, which one is theirs.

I šta oni urade? Pa, prvo da proverimo

And what we find is, amnesiac patients just guess.

da li oni stvarno pate od amnezije. Zatražimo od ovih

These are normal controls, where if I did this with you,

pacijenata da nam kažu koju reprodukciju oni poseduju,

all of you would know which print you chose.

koju su izabrali prošlog puta, koja je njihova.

But if I do this with amnesiac patients, they don't have a clue.

Ono što zapažamo je da osobe sa amnezijom samo nagađaju.

They can't pick their print out of a lineup.

Ovo su normalni ispitanici, i kada bih i vas pitao,

Here's what normal controls do: they synthesize happiness. Right?

svako bi znao koju je reprodukciju odabrao.

Ali kada pokušate to sa osobama koje pate od amnezije,

This is the change in liking score,

one nemaju predstavu.

the change from the first time they ranked to the second time they ranked.

Ne mogu da odaberu svoj primerak od ponuđenih.

Normal controls show -- that was the magic I showed you;

Evo šta normalni ispitanici čine: oni sintetišu sreću.

now I'm showing it to you in graphical form --

"The one I own is better than I thought.

Zar ne? Ovo je promena u dopadanju,

The one I didn't own, the one I left behind,

razlika između prvog i drugog ocenjivanja.

is not as good as I thought."

Normalni ispitanici pokazuju

Amnesiacs do exactly the same thing. Think about this result.

-- to je magija koju sam vam pokazao,

sada vam je prikazujem u grafičkom obliku --

"Ona koju imam je bolja nego što sam mislio. Ona koju nemam,

These people like better the one they own,

but they don't know they own it.

koju nisam izabrao, nije tako dobra kao što mi se činilo."

Ljudi sa amnezijom učinili su isto. Razmislite o ovom rezultatu.

"Yeah, right" is not the right response!

What these people did when they synthesized happiness

Ovim ljudima se više sviđa njihova reprodukcija,

iako ni ne znaju da je poseduju.

is they really, truly changed

their affective, hedonic, aesthetic reactions to that poster.

"Da, baš" nije pravi odgovor!

Ono što su ovi ljudi učinili kada su sintetisali sreću

They're not just saying it because they own it,

because they don't know they own it.

je to da su zaista, istinski izmenili

When psychologists show you bars,

svoje afektivne, hedonističke, estetske reakcije na ovu reprodukciju.

you know that they are showing you averages of lots of people.

Ne govore to samo zato što je poseduju,

And yet, all of us have this psychological immune system,

jer oni to ni ne znaju.

this capacity to synthesize happiness,

but some of us do this trick better than others.

Kada vam psiholozi prikažu grafikone,

And some situations allow anybody to do it more effectively

vi znate da se tu radi o prosečnim vrednostima za veliku grupu ljudi.

A ipak, svako od nas poseduje taj psihološki imuni sistem,

than other situations do.

tu sposobnost da sintetiše sreću,

It turns out that freedom,

ali neki od nas to čine bolje od drugih.

the ability to make up your mind and change your mind,

A postoje i situacije koje svakome dozvoljavaju da ovo čini,

is the friend of natural happiness,

više nego neke druge situacije.

because it allows you to choose among all those delicious futures

and find the one that you would most enjoy.

Ispostavlja se da je sloboda

But freedom to choose,

-- sposobnost da donosite odluke i menjate mišljenje --

to change and make up your mind,

is the enemy of synthetic happiness,

prijatelj prirodne sreće, jer vam dozvoljava da birate

and I'm going to show you why.

među svim tim divnim budućnostima i nađete onu koja vam najviše odgovara.

Dilbert already knows, of course.

"Dogbert's tech support. How may I abuse you?"

"My printer prints a blank page after every document."

Ali sloboda izbora

"Why complain about getting free paper?"

-- da odlučujete i menjate mišljenje -- je neprijatelj sintetičke sreće.

"Free? Aren't you just giving me my own paper?"

"Look at the quality of the free paper compared to your lousy regular paper!

A pokazaću vam i zašto.

Dilbert već zna, naravno.

Čitate strip dok ja govorim.

Only a fool or a liar would say that they look the same!"

"Dogbert tehnička podrška. Kako Vam mogu odmoći?"

"Now that you mention it, it does seem a little silkier!"

"Moj štampač izbacuje praznu stranu nakon svakog dokumenta."

"What are you doing?"

"Zašto se bunite što dobijate besplatan papir?"

"I'm helping people accept the things they cannot change." Indeed.

"Besplatan? Zar to nije moj papir?"

"Zaboga, čoveče! Uporedite kvalitet besplatnog papira

The psychological immune system works best

sa vašim jadnim običnim papirom!

when we are totally stuck, when we are trapped.

Samo bi budala ili lažov tvrdio da su isti!"

"Ah! Sad kad rekoste, čini se da je malo svilenkastiji!"

This is the difference between dating and marriage.

You go out on a date with a guy,

"Šta radiš?"

and he picks his nose; you don't go out on another date.

"Pomažem ljudima da prihvate stvari koje ne mogu da promene." Zaista.

You're married to a guy and he picks his nose?

Psihološki imuni sistem najbolje funkcioniše

He has a heart of gold. Don't touch the fruitcake!

kada potpuno zaglavimo, kad smo u klopci.

You find a way to be happy with what's happened.

Koja je razlika između zabavljanja i braka?

(Laughter)

Now, what I want to show you

Mislim, odete na sastanak sa likom,

is that people don't know this about themselves,

on čačka nos; nećete se više viđati sa njim.

and not knowing this can work to our supreme disadvantage.

Udati ste za lika koji čačka nos?

Ali, ima zlatno srce, ne diraj kolač. Zar ne?

Here's an experiment we did at Harvard.

Pronađete način da budete zadovoljni onim što imate.

We created a black-and-white photography course,

and we allowed students to come in and learn how to use a darkroom.

Želim da vam pokažem

je da ljudi toga nisu svesni

So we gave them cameras, they went around campus,

i to može biti velika prepreka.

they took 12 pictures of their favorite professors

and their dorm room and their dog,

Evo eksperimenta koji smo izveli na Harvardu.

and all the other things they wanted to have Harvard memories of.

Napravili smo kurs fotografije, u crno-beloj tehnici,

They bring us the camera, we make up a contact sheet,

i omogućili studentima da dođu i nauče kako se koristi mračna komora.

they figure out which are the two best pictures.

Dali smo im fotoaparate, išli su po kampusu,

We now spend six hours teaching them about darkrooms,

napravili su 12 fotografija svojih omiljenih profesora,

and they blow two of them up.

svoje sobe u domu i svog psa,

They have two gorgeous 8 x 10 glossies

i svih drugih stvari sa Harvarda kojih bi želeli da se sećaju.

of meaningful things to them, and we say,

"Which one would you like to give up?"

Donesu nam aparat, uzmemo im kontakt podatke,

"I have to give one up?"

"Yes, we need one as evidence of the class project.

oni odluče koje su dve najbolje slike,

i provedemo narednih 6 sati učeći ih o mračnim komorama,

So you have to give me one. You have to make a choice.

oni izrade te dve sličice,

You get to keep one, and I get to keep one."

i imaju dva predivna 8 puta 10 podsetnika

na neke njima značajne stvari, i mi pitamo:

Now, there are two conditions in this experiment.

"Koje ćete se odreći?"

In one case, the students are told,

Oni pitaju: "Moram da se odreknem jedne?"

"But you know, if you want to change your mind,

"O, da. Moramo imati jednu kao evidenciju o projektu.

I'll always have the other one here,

Tako da mi morate dati jednu. Morate odabrati.

and in the next four days, before I actually mail it to headquarters" --

Jedna ide Vama, jedna meni."

yeah, "headquarters" --

Postoje dva uslova u ovom eksperimentu.

(Laughter)

"I'll be glad to swap it out with you.

U jednom slučaju, kažemo studentima, "Ali znate,

In fact, I'll come to your dorm room, just give me an email.

ako se predomislite, ova druga će ostati kod mene,

Better yet, I'll check with you.

i u naredna 4 dana, pre nego što ih pošaljem štabu,

You ever want to change your mind, it's totally returnable."

The other half of the students are told exactly the opposite:

rado ću'' -- (Smeh) -- da, "štabu" --

"Make your choice, and by the way,

"rado ću ih zameniti. Zapravo,

the mail is going out, gosh, in two minutes, to England.

doneću Vam je u sobu u domu,

Your picture will be winging its way over the Atlantic.

-- samo mi ostavite e-mail. Još bolje, biću ja u kontaktu sa Vama.

You will never see it again."

Ako se ikada predomislite, lako ćemo Vam ih zameniti."

Half of the students in each of these conditions

Drugoj polovini studenata rekli smo potpuno suprotnu stvar:

are asked to make predictions

about how much they're going to come to like

"Izaberite. Da, samo da znate,

the picture that they keep

šaljemo ih za, uh, samo 2 minuta, u Englesku.

and the picture they leave behind.

Other students are just sent back to their little dorm rooms

Vaša slika preleteće Atlantik.

Nikada je više nećete videti."

and they are measured over the next three to six days

Polovina učenika u oba ova uslova

on their satisfaction with the pictures.

zamoljena je da predvidi koliko

Look at what we find.

će im se vremenom sviđati slika koju su zadržali,

First of all, here's what students think is going to happen.

a koliko ona koje su se odrekli.

They think they're going to maybe come to like the picture they chose

Ostali studenti su samo poslati u svoje sobe

a little more than the one they left behind.

i praćeni tokom narednih 3 do 6 dana

But these are not statistically significant differences.

po pitanju toga koliko im se sviđaju i koliko su zadovoljni slikama.

It's a very small increase, and it doesn't much matter

I pogledajte šta smo otkrili.

whether they were in the reversible or irreversible condition.

Prvo, evo onoga što su studenti predviđali.

Ocenili su da će im se vremenom slika koju su izabrali

Wrong-o.

Bad simulators.

Because here's what's really happening.

sviđati malo više od one koje su se odrekli,

Both right before the swap and five days later,

ali nema statistički značajnih razlika.

people who are stuck with that picture,

who have no choice,

Malo je povećanje i ne pravi veliku razliku

who can never change their mind,

to da li su bili u povratnim ili nepovratnim uslovima.

like it a lot.

And people who are deliberating -- "Should I return it?

Pogrešno. Loši simulatori. Jer evo šta se zapravo događa.

Have I gotten the right one?

Maybe this isn't the good one. Maybe I left the good one?" --

Neposredno pre razmene i 5 dana kasnije,

have killed themselves.

ljudi koji ne mogu da zamene sliku,

They don't like their picture.

In fact, even after the opportunity to swap has expired,

koji nemaju izbora,

koji ne mogu da se predomisle, jako su zadovoljni svojom slikom!

they still don't like their picture.

Why?

A ljudi koji se dvoume -- "Da li da je vratim?

Because the [reversible] condition is not conducive

Da li sam uzeo pravu? Možda ova nije bolja?

to the synthesis of happiness.

Možda sam njima ostavio bolju?" -- su se ubijali.

So here's the final piece of this experiment.

Ne sviđa im se njihova slika, zapravo

We bring in a whole new group of naive Harvard students

čak i nakon što je istekla mogućnost zamene,

i dalje im se ne sviđa. Zašto?

and we say, "You know, we're doing a photography course,

and we can do it one of two ways.

Zato što povratni uslovi ne pomažu

We could do it so that when you take the two pictures,

sintezu sreće.

you'd have four days to change your mind,

Evo poslednjeg dela ovog eksperimenta.

or we're doing another course where you take the two pictures

Doveli smo potpuno novu grupu naivnih Harvardovaca

and you make up your mind right away and you can never change it.

i rekli: "Održaćemo kurs fotografije,

Which course would you like to be in?" Duh!

Sixty-six percent of the students, two-thirds,

i možemo ga držati na jedan od dva sledeća načina.

prefer to be in the course where they have the opportunity to change their mind.

Tako što, kada izaberete jednu od dve fotografije,

imate 4 dana da se predomislite

Hello? Sixty-six percent of the students choose to be in the course

ili možemo raditi tako što, kada birate sliku

morate odmah da se odlučite

in which they will ultimately be deeply dissatisfied with the picture --

i ne možete se više predomisliti. Koju opciju birate?

Uh! 66 procenata studenata, dve trećine,

(Laughter)

because they do not know the conditions under which synthetic happiness grows.

odabrali su kurs nakon koga će moći da se predomisle.

The Bard said everything best, of course, and he's making my point here

'Alo? 66 procenata je odabralo kurs nakon koga će

but he's making it hyperbolically:

na kraju biti duboko nezadovoljni svojom fotografijom.

"'Tis nothing good or bad But thinking makes it so."

Jer ne znaju pod kojim uslovima se sintetiše sreća.

It's nice poetry, but that can't exactly be right.

Is there really nothing good or bad?

Bard je, naravno, rekao sve najbolje, i ima pravo,

Is it really the case that gall bladder surgery and a trip to Paris

are just the same thing?

ali izrazio se hiperbolično:

(Laughter)

That seems like a one-question IQ test.

"Ništa nije ni dobro ni zlo Takvim ga čini naše razmišljanje."

They can't be exactly the same.

Lepa je to poezija, ali ne može to biti sasvim tačno.

In more turgid prose, but closer to the truth,

Zar stvarno ništa nije ni dobro ni loše?

was the father of modern capitalism, Adam Smith, and he said this.

Zar su operacija žuči i put u Pariz zapravo ista stvar?

This is worth contemplating:

Ovo se čini kao IQ test od samo jednog pitanja.

"The great source of both the misery and disorders of human life

seems to arise from overrating the difference

Ne može biti potpuno isto.

between one permanent situation and another.

U nešto nezgrapnijoj prozi, ali bliže istini,

Some of these situations may, no doubt, deserve to be preferred to others,

otac modernog kapitalizma, Adam Smit, rekao je sledeće.

Ovo je vredno razmišljanja:

but none of them can deserve to be pursued

"Veliki izvor nesreće i problema u ljudskim životima

with that passionate ardor which drives us to violate the rules

čini se da proizlazi iz precenjivanja razlika

either of prudence or of justice,

između trajnih situacija...

or to corrupt the future tranquility of our minds,

Neke od ovih situacija, bez sumnje, zaslužuju da ih biramo

either by shame from the remembrance of our own folly,

radije nego neke druge,

ali nijedna ne zaslužuje da za njom jurimo

or by remorse for the horror of our own injustice."

In other words: yes, some things are better than others.

sa takvim strastvenim žarom koji nas navodi da kršimo pravila,

We should have preferences that lead us into one future over another.

bilo obazrivosti ili pravde ili narušava budući mir našeg uma,

But when those preferences drive us too hard and too fast

bilo sramom pri sećanju na sopstvene gluposti,

because we have overrated the difference between these futures,

ili žaljenjem zbog užasa naše sopstvene nepravde."

we are at risk.

Drugim rečima: da, neke stvari su bolje od drugih.

When our ambition is bounded, it leads us to work joyfully.

Treba imati prioritete koji nas vode u jednu budućnost,

When our ambition is unbounded,

it leads us to lie, to cheat, to steal, to hurt others,

radije nego u neku drugu.

Ali kada nas ti prioriteti previše brzo i snažno vode

to sacrifice things of real value.

jer smo precenili razliku između ove dve budućnosti,

When our fears are bounded,

we're prudent, we're cautious,

mi smo u opasnosti.

we're thoughtful.

When our fears are unbounded and overblown,

Kada su nam ambicije sputane, to nam omogućava

we're reckless, and we're cowardly.

da radimo sa zadovoljstvom.

Kada su nam ambicije nesputane, to nas vuče da lažemo, varamo,

The lesson I want to leave you with, from these data,

krademo, povređujemo druge, žrtvujemo stvari od pravog značaja.

is that our longings and our worries are both to some degree overblown,

Kada su nam strahovi sputani,

because we have within us the capacity to manufacture the very commodity

obazrivi smo, pažljivi.

Kada su nam strahovi nesputani i preterani,

we are constantly chasing when we choose experience.

neobazrivi smo i bivamo kukavice.

Thank you.

Lekcija koju želim da naučite iz ovoga

(Applause)

je da su naše žudnje i brige donekle preterane,

jer posedujemo sposobnost da proizvedemo tu ugodnost

za kojom jurimo kada biramo iskustva.

Hvala.