Why are we happy? Why aren't we happy? | Dan Gilbert

Prevoditelj: Hrvoje Simic Recezent: Ivan Petrović

Kad imate 21 minutu za izlaganje,

When you have 21 minutes to speak,

dva milijuna godina se čine jako dugima.

two million years seems like a really long time.

Ali, evolucijski gledano, dva milijuna godina su ništa.

But evolutionarily, two million years is nothing.

Pa ipak, u dva milijuna godina ljudski mozak se gotovo utrostručio,

And yet, in two million years,

the human brain has nearly tripled in mass,

going from the one-and-a-quarter-pound brain of our ancestor here, Habilis,

narastao je s pola kile teškog mozga našeg pretka Habilisa

na mesnu štrucu od gotovo kilu i pol koju svi mi ovdje nosimo među ušima.

to the almost three-pound meatloaf everybody here has between their ears.

Što to ima u velikom mozgu da je priroda tako žarko željela da ga imamo?

What is it about a big brain

that nature was so eager for every one of us to have one?

Ispostavilo se da kad se mozak utrostruči

Well, it turns out when brains triple in size,

they don't just get three times bigger; they gain new structures.

nije samo veći, nego dobiva i nove strukture.

And one of the main reasons our brain got so big is because it got a new part,

A jedan od glavnih razloga zašto je naš mozak veći je što ima novi dio,

koji se zove frontalni režanj, posebno dio koji se zove prefrontalna kora.

called the "frontal lobe,"

particularly, a part called the "prefrontal cortex."

Što to prefrontalna kora radi što bi moglo opravdati

What does a prefrontal cortex do for you

that should justify the entire architectural overhaul of the human skull

prepravku cijele arhitekture ljudske lubanje u treptaju evolucijskog vremena?

in the blink of evolutionary time?

Pa, ispostavilo se da prefrontalna kora radi svašta

Well, it turns out the prefrontal cortex does lots of things,

ali jedna od najvažnijih stvari je

but one of the most important things it does is it's an experience simulator.

što je simulator iskustva.

Piloti vježbaju u simulatorima leta

Pilots practice in flight simulators

so that they don't make real mistakes in planes.

kako ne bi radili stvarne greške u zrakoplovima.

Human beings have this marvelous adaptation

Ljudi imaju ovu izvanrednu prilagodbu

that they can actually have experiences in their heads

pomoću koje mogu probati stvari u svojoj glavi

before they try them out in real life.

prije nego što ih iskušaju u stvarnosti.

This is a trick that none of our ancestors could do,

Ovaj trik naši preci nisu mogli izvesti

and that no other animal can do quite like we can.

niti ijedna druga životinja tako dobro kao mi. Sjajna prilagodba.

It's a marvelous adaptation.

It's up there with opposable thumbs and standing upright and language

Zajedno s palcima i uspravnim držanjem i jezikom

as one of the things that got our species out of the trees

to je jedna od stvari zbog kojih smo sišli s drveća

and into the shopping mall.

i ušli u šoping-centre.

(Laughter)

Svi smo to radili.

All of you have done this.

Sami znate da

Ben and Jerry's doesn't have "liver and onion" ice cream,

slastičarnice ne drže sladoled s okusom jetrice i luka.

and it's not because they whipped some up, tried it and went, "Yuck!"

Ali ne zato što su ga napravili, probali i rekli "Bljak!",

It's because, without leaving your armchair,

nego zato što i bez ustajanja iz fotelje

you can simulate that flavor and say "yuck" before you make it.

možete simulirati taj okus i reći bljak prije nego što ga napravite.

Pogledajmo kako naši simulatori iskustva rade.

Let's see how your experience simulators are working.

Let's just run a quick diagnostic

Prođimo kroz brzinsku dijagnostiku prije nego što nastavim s izlaganjem.

before I proceed with the rest of the talk.

Here's two different futures that I invite you to contemplate.

Razmislite o dvije potencijalne budućnosti

You can try to simulate them and tell me which one you think you might prefer.

i pokušajte ih simulirati kako bi vidjeli koja bi vam bila draža.

One of them is winning the lottery. This is about 314 million dollars.

Jedna mogućnost je dobitak na lutriji, oko 314 milijuna dolara.

And the other is becoming paraplegic.

Druga je da postanete invalid.

(Laughter)

Razmislite na trenutak.

Just give it a moment of thought.

You probably don't feel like you need a moment of thought.

Vjerojatno vam se čini da vam ne treba trenutak.

Interestingly, there are data on these two groups of people,

Evo podataka o ove dvije grupe ljudi

data on how happy they are.

o tome koliko se osjećaju sretno.

And this is exactly what you expected, isn't it?

I podaci su točno kakve ste i očekivali, zar ne?

But these aren't the data. I made these up!

Ove podatke sam ja izmislio!

These are the data.

Ovo su pravi podaci. Pali ste na ispitu, a tek smo na početku predavanja.

You failed the pop quiz, and you're hardly five minutes into the lecture.

Because the fact is that a year after losing the use of their legs

Jer je činjenica da godinu dana nakon oduzetosti nogu

and a year after winning the lotto,

odnosno godinu dana nakon dobitka na lotu, i dobitnici i invalidi

lottery winners and paraplegics are equally happy with their lives.

su podjednako sretni sa svojim životom.

Ne brinite što ste pali na prvom testu

Don't feel too bad about failing the first pop quiz,

because everybody fails all of the pop quizzes all of the time.

svi mi padamo na testovima cijelo vrijeme.

Istraživanja koja provodi moj laboratorij,

The research that my laboratory has been doing,

i koja provode ekonomisti i psiholozi po cijeloj zemlji

that economists and psychologists around the country have been doing,

otkrila su nešto stvarno iznenađujuće.

has revealed something really quite startling to us,

Nešto što nazivamo "utjecaj događaja",

something we call the "impact bias,"

which is the tendency for the simulator to work badly,

sklonost simulatora da ne funkcionira dobro.

for the simulator to make you believe that different outcomes are more different

Simulator utječe da vjerujete kako su različiti ishodi

različitiji nego što su u stvarnosti.

than, in fact, they really are.

From field studies to laboratory studies,

Istraživanja na terenu i u laboratoriju

we see that winning or losing an election,

pokazuju da pobjeda i gubitak na izborima, dobivanje ili gubljenje partnera,

gaining or losing a romantic partner,

dobivanje ili nedobivanje unaprjeđenja, prolazak na ispitu ili ne, itd.

getting or not getting a promotion,

passing or not passing a college test,

on and on,

imaju manji utjecaj, manji intenzitet i traju puno kraće

have far less impact, less intensity and much less duration

nego što su ljudi očekivali.

than people expect them to have.

Nedavna studija - ovo me zapanjuje -

A recent study -- this almost floors me --

o tome kako životne traume utječu na ljude

a recent study showing how major life traumas affect people

sugerira da ako se trauma dogodila prije više od tri mjeseca

suggests that if it happened over three months ago,

- osim par iznimaka -

ona nema nikakvog utjecaja na vašu sreću.

with only a few exceptions,

Zašto?

it has no impact whatsoever on your happiness.

Zato što se sreća može sintetizirati.

Why?

Because happiness can be synthesized.

Sir Thomas Brown je napisao 1642.: "Ja sam najsretnija osoba.

Sir Thomas Brown wrote in 1642, "I am the happiest man alive.

Posjedujem ono što može pretvoriti siromaštvo u bogatstvo, nedaću u blagostanje.

I have that in me that can convert poverty to riches, adversity to prosperity.

Manje sam ranjiv od Ahila, sudbina mi ne može pronaći slabo mjesto."

I am more invulnerable than Achilles; fortune hath not one place to hit me."

Kakav je to izvanredan stroj u glavi ove osobe?

What kind of remarkable machinery does this guy have in his head?

Pa, ispostavilo se da točno takav izvanredan stroj ima svatko od nas.

Well, it turns out it's precisely the same remarkable machinery that all of us have.

Ljudska bića imaju neku vrstu psihičkog imunološkog sustava.

Human beings have something

that we might think of as a "psychological immune system,"

Sustav kognitivnih procesa, uglavnom nesvjesnih kognitivnih procesa,

a system of cognitive processes, largely nonconscious cognitive processes,

koje im pomažu promijeniti svoj pogled na svijet

that help them change their views of the world,

kako bi se mogli osjećati bolje u svijetu u kojem su se našli.

so that they can feel better about the worlds

Kao Sir Thomas, i vi imate ovaj stroj.

in which they find themselves.

Za razliku od Sir Thomasa, čini se da toga niste svjesni.

Like Sir Thomas, you have this machine.

Unlike Sir Thomas, you seem not to know it.

Mi sintetiziramo sreću, ali smatramo da se sreća treba pronaći.

We synthesize happiness, but we think happiness is a thing to be found.

Mislim da vam ne moram dati puno primjera ljudi koji sintetiziraju sreću.

Now, you don't need me to give you

too many examples of people synthesizing happiness, I suspect,

Iako ću vam pokazati neke rezultate eksperimenata,

ne morate puno tražiti da bi pronašli dokaze.

though I'm going to show you some experimental evidence.

Kao osobni izazov, jer to ponekad upotrijebim na predavanjima,

You don't have to look very far for evidence.

I took a copy of the "New York Times"

uzeo sam primjerak New York Timesa i pokušao pronaći slučajeve ljudi koji sintetiziraju sreću.

and tried to find some instances of people synthesizing happiness.

I ovdje su tri lika.

Here are three guys synthesizing happiness.

"Sad sam puno bolje fizički, financijski, emocionalno, mentalno

"I'm better off physically, financially, mentally ..."

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience."

i u skoro svakom drugom pogledu." "Ne žalim zbog nijedne minute.

"I believe it turned out for the best."

Bilo je to sjajno iskustvo." "Vjerujem da je ovako ispalo najbolje."

Who are these characters who are so damn happy?

Tko su ovi likovi koji su toliko prokleto sretni?

The first one is Jim Wright.

Some of you are old enough to remember:

Pa, prvi je Jim Wright.

he was the chairman of the House of Representatives,

Neki od vas ste dovoljno stari da ga se sjećate kao predsjednika Zastupničkog doma

and he resigned in disgrace

when this young Republican named Newt Gingrich found out about

koji je dao ostavku kad ga je mladi republikanac imenom Newt Gingrich

a shady book deal that he had done.

He lost everything.

razotkrio zbog sumnjivog posla oko izdanja knjige.

The most powerful Democrat in the country lost everything:

On je izgubio sve. Najmoćniji Demokrat u zemlji,

he lost his money, he lost his power.

izgubio je sve.

What does he have to say all these years later about it?

Izgubio je novac, moć.

"I am so much better off physically, financially, mentally

Što on ima za reći nakon svih ovih godina?

"Sad sam puno bolje fizički, financijski, mentalno

and in almost every other way."

What other way would there be to be better off?

i u skoro svakom drugom pogledu."

Vegetably? Minerally? Animally?

U kojem mu još pogledu može biti bolje?

He's pretty much covered them there.

Povrtno? Mineralno? Manje-više je sve već pokrio.

Moreese Bickham is somebody you've never heard of.

Moreese Bickham uttered these words upon being released.

Za Moreesea Bickhama nikad niste čuli.

Moreese Bickham je izjavio ovo, nakon što je pušten.

He was 78 years old.

He'd spent 37 years in Louisiana State Penitentiary

Bilo mu je 78 godina. Proveo je 37 godina

for a crime he didn't commit.

u državnoj kaznionici u Louisiani za zločin koji nije počinio.

He was ultimately [released for good behavior halfway through his sentence.]

Na kraju je oslobođen,

What did he have to say about his experience?

u dobi od 78 godina, zbog DNK dokaza.

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience."

I što nam ima za reći o svom iskustvu?

Glorious!

"Ne žalim zbog nijedne minute. Bilo je to sjajno iskustvo."

This guy's not saying, "There were some nice guys. They had a gym."

"Sjajno!" Ovaj čovjek nije rekao:

"Glorious" -- a word we usually reserve for something like a religious experience.

"Znate, bilo je tamo i dobrih dečki. Imali smo teretanu."

Kaže "sjajno",

riječ koju obično rezerviramo za uzvišena iskustva.

Harry S. Langerman uttered these words.

He's somebody you might have known but didn't,

Harry S. Langerman je izgovorio ove riječi, i on je mogao biti poznat

because in 1949, he read a little article in the paper

ali nije, jer 1949. pročitao mali članak u tisku

about a hamburger stand owned by these two brothers named McDonald.

o hamburger-štandu u vlasništvu braće McDonald.

And he thought, "That's a really neat idea!"

So he went to find them.

I pomislio je: "Koja dobra ideja!"

They said, "We can give you a franchise on this for 3,000 bucks."

Potražio ih je i oni su rekli:

Harry went back to New York, asked his brother, an investment banker,

"Možemo ti dati franšizu za 3.000 dolara."

Harry je pitao svog brata investicijskog bankara da mu

to loan him 3,000 dollars, and his brother's immortal words were,

"You idiot, nobody eats hamburgers."

posudi 3.000 dolara.

Odgovor je bio: "Budalo,

He wouldn't lend him the money.

Of course, six months later, Ray Kroc had exactly the same idea.

nitko ne jede hamburgere."

Nije mu posudio novac, a šest mjeseci kasnije

It turns out, people do eat hamburgers,

Ray Croc je došao na istu ideju.

and Ray Kroc, for a while, became the richest man in America.

Ispostavilo se da ljudi ipak jedu hamburgere,

i Ray Croc je jedno vrijeme bio najbogatiji čovjek u Americi.

And then, finally,

some of you recognize this young photo of Pete Best,

I na kraju, u najboljem slučaju

who was the original drummer for the Beatles,

neki od vas prepoznati će na fotografiji Petea Besta,

until they, you know, sent him out on an errand and snuck away

and picked up Ringo on a tour.

originalnog bubnjara Beatlesa,

Well, in 1994, when Pete Best was interviewed --

kojeg su oni, znate već, poslali po cigarete i onda mu šmugnuli

yes, he's still a drummer; yes, he's a studio musician --

i pokupili Ringa na turneji.

he had this to say: "I'm happier than I would have been with the Beatles."

1994. kada je Pete Best je bio intervjuiran

- još je bubnjar i studijski muzičar -

OK, there's something important to be learned from these people,

izjavio je: "Sretniji sam nego što bih bio s Beatlesima."

and it is the secret of happiness.

Here it is, finally to be revealed.

Možemo naučiti nešto važno od ovih ljudi:

First: accrue wealth, power and prestige,

tajnu sreće.

then lose it.

I evo je, konačno smo je otkrili.

(Laughter)

Prvo: steknite bogatstvo, moć i prestiž,

Second: spend as much of your life in prison as you possibly can.

zatim ih izgubite.

(Laughter)

Third: make somebody else really, really rich.

Drugo: što više vremena možete provedite u zatvoru.

Treće: jako obogatite nekog drugog.

And finally: never, ever join the Beatles.

(Laughter)

Yeah, right.

Because when people synthesize happiness,

I konačno: nikad, nikad se nemojte pridružiti Beatlesima.

as these gentlemen seem to have done,

I ja, poput Ze Franka, mogu predvidjeti vašu sljedeću misao

we all smile at them, but we kind of roll our eyes and say,

"Yeah, right, you never really wanted the job."

Koja je: "Ma da!" Jer kad

"Oh yeah, right -- you really didn't have that much in common with her,

ljudi sintetiziraju sreću, kao što čini se da su ova gospoda napravila,

and you figured that out just about the time

mi se smiješimo, ali postrance kolutamo očima i kažemo

she threw the engagement ring in your face."

We smirk,

"Ma da, nisi nikad niti htio taj posao."

because we believe that synthetic happiness is not of the same quality

"Da, baš

nikad nisi imao puno toga zajedničkog s njom,

as what we might call "natural happiness."

i to si otkrio baš u trenutku

What are these terms?

Natural happiness is what we get when we get what we wanted,

kada ti je bacila zaručnički prsten u lice."

Podsmjehujemo se jer vjerujemo da sintetička sreća

and synthetic happiness is what we make when we don't get what we wanted.

nije iste kakvoće kao ona koju bi mogli zvati prirodnom srećom.

And in our society, we have a strong belief

Kakvi su to nazivi?

Prirodnu sreću osjetimo kad dobijemo ono što smo željeli;

that synthetic happiness is of an inferior kind.

sintetičku sreću stvorimo kad ne dobijemo ono što smo željeli.

Why do we have that belief?

Well, it's very simple.

What kind of economic engine would keep churning

U našem društvu postoji jako vjerovanje

if we believed that not getting what we want

da je sintetička sreća manje vrijedna vrsta sreće.

could make us just as happy as getting it?

Zašto tako vjerujemo?

Razlog je vrlo jednostavan. Kakav ekonomični stroj

With all apologies to my friend Matthieu Ricard,

bi nastavio funkcionirati

a shopping mall full of Zen monks

ako bi vjerovali kako nas nedobijanje stvari koje želimo može usrećiti jednako kao i dobijanje?

is not going to be particularly profitable,

because they don't want stuff enough.

(Laughter)

Uz sve isprike mom prijatelju Matthieu Ricardu,

I want to suggest to you

that synthetic happiness is every bit as real and enduring

trgovački centar pun zen-redovnika

neće biti naročito profitabilan

as the kind of happiness you stumble upon

jer oni nedovoljno žele materijalne stvari.

when you get exactly what you were aiming for.

Now, I'm a scientist, so I'm going to do this not with rhetoric,

Poručujem vam da je sintetička sreća

but by marinating you in a little bit of data.

jednako stvarna i trajna

Let me first show you an experimental paradigm

kao i ona sreća koju osjetite

that's used to demonstrate the synthesis of happiness

kada dobijete točno ono što ste željeli.

among regular old folks.

Budući sam znanstvenik, to neću učiniti retorikom

This isn't mine,

nego ću koristiti podatke.

it's a 50-year-old paradigm called the "free choice paradigm."

Prvo ću vam pokazati pokusnu paradigmu koja se koristi

It's very simple.

You bring in, say, six objects,

za demonstraciju sinteze sreće

and you ask a subject to rank them from the most to the least liked.

među prosječnim ljudima.

In this case, because this experiment uses them,

To je 50 godina stara "paradigma slobodnog izbora".

these are Monet prints.

Vrlo je jednostavna.

Everybody ranks these Monet prints from the one they like the most

Donesete, recimo, šest predmeta

to the one they like the least.

i tražite subjekta da ih poreda po sviđanju.

Now we give you a choice:

U ovom slučaju, eksperiment koristi

"We happen to have some extra prints in the closet.

We're going to give you one as your prize to take home.

reprodukcije Monetovih slika.

Dakle, svatko poreda ove Monetove reprodukcije

We happen to have number three and number four," we tell the subject.

prema tome koliko im se slika sviđa.

Onda vam damo izbor:

This is a bit of a difficult choice,

"Slučajno imamo neke reprodukcije viška u ormaru.

because neither one is preferred strongly to the other,

but naturally, people tend to pick number three,

Kao nagradu, jednu možete ponijeti kući.

Slučajno imamo broj tri i broj četiri."

because they liked it a little better than number four.

kažemo subjektu. To je malo teži izbor,

Sometime later -- it could be 15 minutes, it could be 15 days --

jer vam ni jedno od te dvije nije naročito draža,

the same stimuli are put before the subject,

ali naravno, ljudi su skloni da odaberu broj tri

and the subject is asked to re-rank the stimuli.

jer im se sviđao malo više od broja četiri.

"Tell us how much you like them now."

What happens?

Nešto kasnije - što može biti za 15 minuta, ili za 15 dana -

Watch as happiness is synthesized.

This is the result that's been replicated over and over again.

isti podražaj je postavljen pred subjekte

You're watching happiness be synthesized.

i tražimo ih da ponovno rankiraju podražaje.

Would you like to see it again?

"Recite nam koliko vam se sad sviđaju."

I što se događa? Pogledajte kako se sintetizira sreća.

Happiness!

"The one I got is really better than I thought!

Isti rezultat je dobijen iznova i iznova.

That other one I didn't get sucks!"

That's the synthesis of happiness.

Gledate sintezu sreće.

(Laughter)

Želite li je ponovno vidjeti? Sreća!

Now, what's the right response to that?

"Yeah, right!"

"Ona koju sam dobio je bolja nego što sam mislio!

Now, here's the experiment we did,

Ona druga je bezveze!"

and I hope this is going to convince you

(Smijeh) To je sinteza sreće.

that "Yeah, right!" was not the right response.

Što je pravi odgovor na to? "Ma, da!"

We did this experiment with a group of patients

who had anterograde amnesia.

These are hospitalized patients.

Ali, evo eksperimenta kojeg smo proveli

Most of them have Korsakoff syndrome,

za kojeg se nadam kako će vas uvjeriti da

a polyneuritic psychosis.

"Ma, da!" nije pravi odgovor.

They drank way too much, and they can't make new memories.

Napravili smo ovaj eksperiment sa skupinom pacijenata

koji su hospitalizirani s anterogradnom amnezijom.

They remember their childhood, but if you walk in and introduce yourself

Većina boluje od Korsakovljevog sindroma,

and then leave the room,

jedne vrste psihoze - pili su puno previše,

when you come back, they don't know who you are.

We took our Monet prints to the hospital.

i ne mogu steći nove uspomene.

Oni pamte svoje djetinjstvo, ali ako uđete i predstavite se

And we asked these patients to rank them

from the one they liked the most to the one they liked the least.

i onda napustite sobu,

kada se vratite oni više ne znaju tko ste.

We then gave them the choice between number three and number four.

Ponijeli smo naše reprodukcije u bolnicu

Like everybody else, they said,

i pitali smo ove pacijente da ih poredaju

"Gee, thanks Doc! That's great! I could use a new print.

od one koja im se najviše svidjela do one koja im se najmanje svidjela.

I'll take number three."

We explained we would have number three mailed to them.

Onda smo im dali izbor između trećeg i četvrtog po poretku

We gathered up our materials,

Kao i svi ostali, rekli su:

and we went out of the room and counted to a half hour.

"Puno hvala, doktore! Baš bi mi dobro došla slika.

(Laughter)

Uzet ću broj tri."

Back into the room, we say, "Hi, we're back."

Objasnili smo im kako ćemo im poslati broj tri poštom.

The patients, bless them, say, "Ah, Doc, I'm sorry,

Pokupili smo sve svoje materijale i izašli iz sobe,

I've got a memory problem; that's why I'm here.

i brojali do pola sata.

If I've met you before, I don't remember."

Kad smo se vratili, rekli smo: "Bok, vratili smo se."

"Really, Jim, you don't remember? I was just here with the Monet prints?"

Pacijenti bi rekli: "Ah, doktore, baš mi je žao,

"Sorry, Doc, I just don't have a clue."

"No problem, Jim.

ali imam problem s pamćenjem, zato sam ovdje.

All I want you to do is rank these for me,

Ako sam vas upoznao ranije, ne sjećam se."

from the one you like the most to the one you like the least."

"Stvarno, Jime, ne sjećaš me se? Sad smo bili ovdje s reprodukcijama?"

What do they do?

"Žao mi je doktore, nemam pojma."

Well, let's first check and make sure they're really amnesiac.

"Nema problema, Jime. Samo bih želio da poredaš ove slike

We ask these amnesiac patients to tell us which one they own,

od onih koja ti se najviše sviđa do one koja ti se najmanje sviđa."

which one they chose last time, which one is theirs.

I što su učini? Pa, prvo provjerimo

And what we find is, amnesiac patients just guess.

da li stvarno imaju amneziju.

These are normal controls, where if I did this with you,

Pitamo ih koje slike već imaju

all of you would know which print you chose.

koje su odabrali zadnji put, koja je njihova.

But if I do this with amnesiac patients, they don't have a clue.

Otkrili smo da pacijenti s amnezijom jednostavno nagađaju.

They can't pick their print out of a lineup.

Da sam isto napravio s vama

Here's what normal controls do: they synthesize happiness. Right?

svi bi ste znali koju ste reprodukciju odabrali.

Ali pacijenti s amnezijom

This is the change in liking score,

nemaju pojma. Ne mogu odabrati svoj s popisa.

the change from the first time they ranked to the second time they ranked.

Normal controls show -- that was the magic I showed you;

Ono što kontrolna grupa radi je da sintetizira sreću.

now I'm showing it to you in graphical form --

"The one I own is better than I thought.

Zar ne? To rezultira promjenom u ukusu,

The one I didn't own, the one I left behind,

promjenu od prvobitnog rangiranja do rangiranja drugi put.

is not as good as I thought."

Kontrolna grupa pokazuje

- to sam vam već opisao

Amnesiacs do exactly the same thing. Think about this result.

sad vam ga pokazujem u grafičkom obliku -

"Ova koju imam je bolja nešto što sam mislio. Ona druga,

These people like better the one they own,

but they don't know they own it.

ona koju sam ostavio, nije tako dobra kao što sam mislio."

Pacijent s amnezijom rade potpuno istu stvar. Razmislite o tome.

"Yeah, right" is not the right response!

What these people did when they synthesized happiness

Tim ljudima se više sviđa ona u njihovom vlasništvu,

a ni ne znaju da je posjeduju.

is they really, truly changed

their affective, hedonic, aesthetic reactions to that poster.

"Ma, da" nije pravi odgovor!

Što su ti ljudi učinili kada su sintetizirali sreću

They're not just saying it because they own it,

because they don't know they own it.

je da su zaista, stvarno promijenili

When psychologists show you bars,

svoje afektivne, hedonističke, estetske reakcije na taj plakat.

you know that they are showing you averages of lots of people.

Ne kažu to samo zato što ga posjeduju,

And yet, all of us have this psychological immune system,

jer oni ni ne znaju da ga posjeduju.

this capacity to synthesize happiness,

but some of us do this trick better than others.

Kada vam psiholozi pokažu grafikone,

And some situations allow anybody to do it more effectively

znate da su vam pokazuju prosjeke iz velike grupe pojedinaca.

Pa ipak, svi mi imamo taj psihološki imunološki sustav,

than other situations do.

sposobnost sinteze sreće,

It turns out that freedom,

ali neki od nas to izvode bolje od drugih.

the ability to make up your mind and change your mind,

A neke situacije omogućuju nam da to izvedemo učinkovitije

is the friend of natural happiness,

nego neke druge situacije.

because it allows you to choose among all those delicious futures

and find the one that you would most enjoy.

Ispada da je sloboda

But freedom to choose,

- sposobnost da se odlučite i predomislite -

to change and make up your mind,

is the enemy of synthetic happiness,

prijatelj prirodne sreće, jer vam omogućuje da

and I'm going to show you why.

između svih tih ukusnih budućnosti pronađete onu u kojoj ćete najviše uživati.

Dilbert already knows, of course.

"Dogbert's tech support. How may I abuse you?"

"My printer prints a blank page after every document."

No, sloboda izbora

"Why complain about getting free paper?"

- odlučivanja i predomišljanja - je neprijatelj sintetičke sreće.

"Free? Aren't you just giving me my own paper?"

"Look at the quality of the free paper compared to your lousy regular paper!

I pokazat ću vam zašto.

Dilbert već zna, naravno.

Pročitat ću vam ovaj strip.

Only a fool or a liar would say that they look the same!"

"Dogbertova tehnička podrška. Kako vam mogu odmoći?"

"Now that you mention it, it does seem a little silkier!"

"Moj pisač ispisuje praznu stranicu nakon svakog dokumenta."

"What are you doing?"

"Zašto bi se žalili ako dobijete besplatan papir?"

"I'm helping people accept the things they cannot change." Indeed.

"Besplatan? Zar to nije moj vlastiti list papira?"

"Pa pogledajte kvalitetu besplatnog papira

The psychological immune system works best

i vaš običan papir!

Samo će budala ili lažov reći da su isti!"

when we are totally stuck, when we are trapped.

"Ah! Sad kad ste to spomenuli, stvarno jest glađi!"

This is the difference between dating and marriage.

You go out on a date with a guy,

"Što radiš?"

and he picks his nose; you don't go out on another date.

"Pomažem ljudima prihvatiti stvari koje ne mogu promijeniti."

You're married to a guy and he picks his nose?

Psihološki imuni sustav funkcionira najbolje

He has a heart of gold. Don't touch the fruitcake!

kad zaglavimo, kad smo zarobljeni.

You find a way to be happy with what's happened.

To je razlika između izlazaka i braka.

(Laughter)

Now, what I want to show you

Izađete na spoj s muškarcem,

is that people don't know this about themselves,

i on kopa nos, više s njim nećete izaći.

and not knowing this can work to our supreme disadvantage.

Udani ste za muškarca koji kopa nos?

Da, ali ima zlatno srce;

ne diraj kolač. Zar ne?

Here's an experiment we did at Harvard.

Pronađete način da bude sretni s onim što imate.

We created a black-and-white photography course,

and we allowed students to come in and learn how to use a darkroom.

Ono što vam želim pokazati je

da ljudi ne znaju to o sebi,

So we gave them cameras, they went around campus,

they took 12 pictures of their favorite professors

i to što ne znamo može nam jako štetiti.

and their dorm room and their dog,

Evo eksperimenta kojeg smo proveli na Harvardu.

and all the other things they wanted to have Harvard memories of.

Organizirali smo tečaj crno-bijele fotografije

They bring us the camera, we make up a contact sheet,

i pozvali smo studente da nauče kako koristiti mračnu komoru.

they figure out which are the two best pictures.

Dali smo im kamere s kojima su hodali po kampusu,

We now spend six hours teaching them about darkrooms,

i napravili 12 slika svojih omiljenih profesora, svojih soba, svojih pasa,

and they blow two of them up.

They have two gorgeous 8 x 10 glossies

of meaningful things to them, and we say,

i drugih stvari, za uspomenu.

"Which one would you like to give up?"

Donesu nam kameru, uzmemo kontakt podatke,

"I have to give one up?"

"Yes, we need one as evidence of the class project.

oni odaberu dvije najbolje slike,

provedemo šest sati u mračnoj komori

So you have to give me one. You have to make a choice.

i oni uvećaju dvije fotografije.

You get to keep one, and I get to keep one."

Dobiju dvije prekrasne velike fotografije

koje su im drage, a mi kažemo,

Now, there are two conditions in this experiment.

"Koju želite ostaviti?"

In one case, the students are told,

"Zar moram?"

"But you know, if you want to change your mind,

"Oh, da, jedna ostaje za evidenciju projekta.

I'll always have the other one here,

Tako da morate jednu ostaviti. Morate odabrati.

and in the next four days, before I actually mail it to headquarters" --

Možete zadržati jednu, a ja ću zadržati drugu."

yeah, "headquarters" --

Sad, postoje dva uvjeta u ovom eksperimentu.

(Laughter)

"I'll be glad to swap it out with you.

U jednom slučaju, rekli smo im: "Znate,

In fact, I'll come to your dorm room, just give me an email.

ako se predomislite, ja ću imati tu drugu sliku,

Better yet, I'll check with you.

pa u naredna četiri dana, prije nego što je pošaljem u sjedište,

You ever want to change your mind, it's totally returnable."

The other half of the students are told exactly the opposite:

rado ću..."- (smijeh) - da, "sjedište"

"Make your choice, and by the way,

"...rado ću vam je zamijeniti. Štoviše,

the mail is going out, gosh, in two minutes, to England.

donijet ću vam je

Your picture will be winging its way over the Atlantic.

samo mi ostavite adresu. U stvari, ja ću se javiti vama.

You will never see it again."

Ako se predomislite, jednostavno je možete zamijeniti."

Half of the students in each of these conditions

Drugoj polovica studenata rekli smo upravo suprotno:

are asked to make predictions

about how much they're going to come to like

"Odaberite jednu. Ovu drugu

the picture that they keep

šaljemo odmah u Englesku.

and the picture they leave behind.

Other students are just sent back to their little dorm rooms

Vaša slika kreće na put preko Atlantika

i nikada više je nećete vidjeti."

and they are measured over the next three to six days

Sada, od polovice studenata u svakom od ovih uvjeta

on their satisfaction with the pictures.

se traži da predvide o tome koliko

Look at what we find.

će zavoljeti sliku koju će zadržati

First of all, here's what students think is going to happen.

a koliko sliku koju će ostaviti.

They think they're going to maybe come to like the picture they chose

Ostale smo samo poslali doma

a little more than the one they left behind.

i onda su mjereni tijekom idućih tri do šest dana

But these are not statistically significant differences.

o njihovom zadovoljstvu slikama.

It's a very small increase, and it doesn't much matter

I evo što smo otkrili.

Prvo, evo što studenti misle da će se dogoditi.

whether they were in the reversible or irreversible condition.

Oni misle da će možda zavoljeti slike koje su odabrali

Wrong-o.

Bad simulators.

Because here's what's really happening.

nešto više od onih koje su ostavili,

Both right before the swap and five days later,

ali to nisu statistički značajne razlike.

people who are stuck with that picture,

who have no choice,

To je vrlo mali porast, i ne znači puno

who can never change their mind,

da li su bili u zamjenjivom ili nezamjenjivom slučaju.

like it a lot.

And people who are deliberating -- "Should I return it?

Pogrešno! Loši simulatori. Evo što se uistinu događa.

Have I gotten the right one?

Maybe this isn't the good one. Maybe I left the good one?" --

I neposredno prije zamjene i pet dana kasnije,

have killed themselves.

ljudi koji su zapeli s tom slikom,

They don't like their picture.

In fact, even after the opportunity to swap has expired,

koji nemaju izbora,

koji se više ne mogu predomisliti, vole je puno!

they still don't like their picture.

Why?

I ljudi koji misle: "Da li da je zamijenim?

Because the [reversible] condition is not conducive

Jesam li uzeo pravu? Možda ova nije najbolja?

to the synthesis of happiness.

Možda sam ostavio bolju?" - ubili su se.

So here's the final piece of this experiment.

Ne sviđa im se njihova slika,

pa čak i nakon što je prošla prilika za zamjenu,

We bring in a whole new group of naive Harvard students

još uvijek ne vole svoju sliku. Zašto?

and we say, "You know, we're doing a photography course,

and we can do it one of two ways.

Zato što promjenjiva stanja ne pomažu

We could do it so that when you take the two pictures,

sintezi sreće.

you'd have four days to change your mind,

Evo i konačnog dijela ovog eksperimenta.

or we're doing another course where you take the two pictures

Uzmemo sasvim novu skupinu naivnih studenata s Harvarda

and you make up your mind right away and you can never change it.

i kažemo im: "Organiziramo tečaj fotografije

Which course would you like to be in?" Duh!

Sixty-six percent of the students, two-thirds,

koji možete završiti na jedan od dva načina.

prefer to be in the course where they have the opportunity to change their mind.

Na prvom, kad birate jednu od dvije slike,

imate četiri dana da se predomislite.

Hello? Sixty-six percent of the students choose to be in the course

Ili možete odabrati tečaj gdje se između dvije slike

morate odlučiti odmah

in which they will ultimately be deeply dissatisfied with the picture --

i ne možete se predomisliti. Što želite?"

66 posto studenata, dvije trećine,

(Laughter)

because they do not know the conditions under which synthetic happiness grows.

žele tečaj gdje imaju priliku promijeniti svoju odluku.

The Bard said everything best, of course, and he's making my point here

Halo? 66 posto studenata se odlučilo za tečaj u kojem će

but he's making it hyperbolically:

u konačnici biti duboko nezadovoljni sa slikom.

"'Tis nothing good or bad But thinking makes it so."

Jer oni ne znaju uvjete pod kojima sintetička sreće raste.

It's nice poetry, but that can't exactly be right.

Is there really nothing good or bad?

Shakespeare je najbolje izrazio moju poantu

Is it really the case that gall bladder surgery and a trip to Paris

are just the same thing?

samo se izražava hiperbolički:

(Laughter)

That seems like a one-question IQ test.

"Nije ništa dobro ili loše / No mišljenje ga čini tako."

They can't be exactly the same.

Lijepo je poeziju, ali ne može biti baš tako.

In more turgid prose, but closer to the truth,

Zar stvarno ništa nije dobro ni loše?

was the father of modern capitalism, Adam Smith, and he said this.

Zar su zaista operacija žuči i putovanje u Pariz

This is worth contemplating:

jedna te ista stvar? To je kao test inteligencije od jednog pitanja.

"The great source of both the misery and disorders of human life

seems to arise from overrating the difference

Ne mogu biti sasvim isti.

between one permanent situation and another.

U nezgrapnijoj prozi, ali bliže istini,

Some of these situations may, no doubt, deserve to be preferred to others,

otac modernog kapitalizma Adam Smith, je rekao ovo.

Vrijedno razmišljanja:

but none of them can deserve to be pursued

"Veliki izvor i bijede i tegoba ljudskog života

with that passionate ardor which drives us to violate the rules

kao da nastaje od preuveličavanja razlike

either of prudence or of justice,

između jedne stalne situacije i druge...

or to corrupt the future tranquility of our minds,

Neke od tih situacija mogu, bez sumnje, zaslužiti da bude preferirane drugima,

either by shame from the remembrance of our own folly,

ali nijedna od njih ne zaslužuje da je se progoni

or by remorse for the horror of our own injustice."

In other words: yes, some things are better than others.

tolikim strastvenim žarom koji nas tjera na kršenje pravila

We should have preferences that lead us into one future over another.

razboritosti ili pravednosti, ili da remeti budući mir našeg duha,

But when those preferences drive us too hard and too fast

bilo od srama sjećanja na naše vlastite ludosti,

because we have overrated the difference between these futures,

ili od kajanja zbog užasa naše nepravednosti."

we are at risk.

Drugim riječima: da, neke stvari su bolje od drugih.

When our ambition is bounded, it leads us to work joyfully.

Trebali bi imati preferencije koje nas vode u jednu budućnost nad drugom.

When our ambition is unbounded,

it leads us to lie, to cheat, to steal, to hurt others,

Ali kad nas te preferencije vode prejako i prebrzo

to sacrifice things of real value.

jer smo precijenili razlike između tih budućnosti,

When our fears are bounded,

we're prudent, we're cautious,

došli smo u opasnost.

we're thoughtful.

When our fears are unbounded and overblown,

Kada je naša ambicija ograničena, navodi nas da veselo radimo.

we're reckless, and we're cowardly.

Kada je neograničena, navodi nas da lažemo, varamo, krademo, naudimo drugima,

The lesson I want to leave you with, from these data,

is that our longings and our worries are both to some degree overblown,

da žrtvujemo stvarne vrijednosti. Kada su naši strahovi ograničeni,

because we have within us the capacity to manufacture the very commodity

mi smo razumni, oprezni, promišljeni.

Kada su naši strahovi neograničeni i preuveličani,

we are constantly chasing when we choose experience.

postanemo nesmotreni, kukavički.

Thank you.

Pouka s kojom vas želim ostaviti iz ovih podataka

(Applause)

je da su naše čežnje i naše brige do neke mjere pretjerane,

jer u nama samima imamo kapaciteta za proizvodnju baš onog

za čim stalno jurimo kad odaberemo iskustvo.

Hvala.