Why are we happy? Why aren't we happy? | Dan Gilbert

譯者: Olive Ma 審譯者: Adrienne Lin

當你有21分鐘發言時間，

When you have 21 minutes to speak,

相比之下二百萬年似乎是很長一段時間

two million years seems like a really long time.

但就進化論而言，二百萬年是很短的

But evolutionarily, two million years is nothing.

然而，二百萬年的時間， 人腦的體積增長了將近3倍

And yet, in two million years,

the human brain has nearly tripled in mass,

going from the one-and-a-quarter-pound brain of our ancestor here, Habilis,

從直立猿人(我們的祖先)的 1.25磅腦袋，

到現在我們每個人兩耳中間的近3磅重的肉餅

to the almost three-pound meatloaf everybody here has between their ears.

大腦究竟有什麼特質， 讓我們每個人都需要有一個呢？

What is it about a big brain

that nature was so eager for every one of us to have one?

哦，原來人腦體積增加了近3倍後

Well, it turns out when brains triple in size,

they don't just get three times bigger; they gain new structures.

不單只增大了，它們還配備新的結構

And one of the main reasons our brain got so big is because it got a new part,

它們變得那麼大的主因之一， 是因為新增了一個部分

稱為「額葉」，尤其是 稱為「前額葉皮質」的部分

called the "frontal lobe,"

particularly, a part called the "prefrontal cortex."

究竟前額葉皮質有什麼功能可以

What does a prefrontal cortex do for you

that should justify the entire architectural overhaul of the human skull

在進化過程中， 一瞬間重整全部頭骨的結構？

in the blink of evolutionary time?

哦，原來，前額葉皮質能做很多功能，

Well, it turns out the prefrontal cortex does lots of things,

但其中一個最重要的功能

but one of the most important things it does is it's an experience simulator.

是作為一個經驗模擬器

飛機駕駛員利用飛行模擬器練習

Pilots practice in flight simulators

so that they don't make real mistakes in planes.

以減低在真正駕駛時的出錯率

Human beings have this marvelous adaptation

人類有這種非凡的能力

that they can actually have experiences in their heads

可以先在腦中創造模擬經驗

before they try them out in real life.

然後在現實生活中嘗試實行

This is a trick that none of our ancestors could do,

我們的祖先無法這麼做

and that no other animal can do quite like we can.

也沒有其他動物能做到， 這是一種非凡的適應能力

It's a marvelous adaptation.

It's up there with opposable thumbs and standing upright and language

非凡程度可以比美相對的 十指、雙腳的站立、語言

as one of the things that got our species out of the trees

這些能力讓我們從住在森林中進化到

and into the shopping mall.

能進入購物商場

(Laughter)

現在-- 在座每個人都做過

All of you have done this.

我的意思是

Ben and Jerry's doesn't have "liver and onion" ice cream,

Ben & Jerry’s冰淇淋店 沒有賣肝臟加洋蔥口味

and it's not because they whipped some up, tried it and went, "Yuck!"

不是因為他們試吃過了才發現很難吃

It's because, without leaving your armchair,

而是因為，只要坐在那

you can simulate that flavor and say "yuck" before you make it.

就能模擬那味道，光想就知道很難吃

來看看我們的經驗模擬器是怎樣運作

Let's see how your experience simulators are working.

Let's just run a quick diagnostic

在我繼續演講前，先很快的問大家個問題

before I proceed with the rest of the talk.

Here's two different futures that I invite you to contemplate.

請你們想一下這兩個不同的未來

You can try to simulate them and tell me which one you think you might prefer.

試著模擬這兩個未來， 然後告訴我你比較喜歡哪個

One of them is winning the lottery. This is about 314 million dollars.

第一個是中彩卷，約三億一千四百萬美金

And the other is becoming paraplegic.

另外個是下半身癱瘓

(Laughter)

讓大家考慮一下

Just give it a moment of thought.

You probably don't feel like you need a moment of thought.

你可能覺得這根本不用考慮

Interestingly, there are data on these two groups of people,

有趣的是，我們有這兩組人的數據

data on how happy they are.

他們有多快樂的數據

And this is exactly what you expected, isn't it?

你們預期的像這樣，對嗎？

But these aren't the data. I made these up!

但這些不是真的數據，是我作出來的！

These are the data.

這些才是真正的數據。 演講還不到5分鐘，你們小考就不及格了

You failed the pop quiz, and you're hardly five minutes into the lecture.

Because the fact is that a year after losing the use of their legs

因為實際上，下半身癱瘓之後一年，

and a year after winning the lotto,

和中了彩卷之後一年，贏彩卷和癱瘓的人

lottery winners and paraplegics are equally happy with their lives.

都同樣地滿意他們的生活

現在，請不要為第一次小考不及格感到丟臉

Don't feel too bad about failing the first pop quiz,

because everybody fails all of the pop quizzes all of the time.

小考不合格的情況是很常發生的事

根據我的實驗室所做的研究

The research that my laboratory has been doing,

全國各地的經濟學家 和心理學家也在做的研究

that economists and psychologists around the country have been doing,

得出一些令人吃驚的結論

has revealed something really quite startling to us,

我們稱之為 預測的偏差

something we call the "impact bias,"

which is the tendency for the simulator to work badly,

這是指模擬器出錯的狀況

for the simulator to make you believe that different outcomes are more different

這模擬器預測不同未來的差異

比實際的差異還大

than, in fact, they really are.

From field studies to laboratory studies,

從實地研究到實驗室研究

we see that winning or losing an election,

我們都看到，選舉勝出 或落敗、獲得或失去一個伴侶

gaining or losing a romantic partner,

有沒有得到升遷、有沒有通過大學入學考

getting or not getting a promotion,

passing or not passing a college test,

on and on,

等等產生的影響，比預期中較輕、較弱、及時間較短

have far less impact, less intensity and much less duration

不同人們所想像的

than people expect them to have.

事實上，令我完全屈服的是

A recent study -- this almost floors me --

最近一項研究，關於人生重大創傷造成的影響

a recent study showing how major life traumas affect people

顯示，創傷發生超過3個月之後

suggests that if it happened over three months ago,

只有少數例外

否則它對你的人生幸福並沒有任何影響

with only a few exceptions,

為什麼？

it has no impact whatsoever on your happiness.

因為快樂是可以合成的

Why?

Because happiness can be synthesized.

托馬斯．布朗爵士在1642年 寫道: 「我是活著中最幸福的人」

Sir Thomas Brown wrote in 1642, "I am the happiest man alive.

「我擁有的潛能可以把貧困 轉換為財富，逆境轉換為繁榮」

I have that in me that can convert poverty to riches, adversity to prosperity.

「我比阿基里斯更加刀槍不入； 命運找不到一處能打擊我的地方。」

I am more invulnerable than Achilles; fortune hath not one place to hit me."

這傢伙的腦子裡有什麼非凡的機器嗎？

What kind of remarkable machinery does this guy have in his head?

原來，這非凡的機器我們每個人都有

Well, it turns out it's precisely the same remarkable machinery that all of us have.

人類有種東西可視為是精神免疫的系統

Human beings have something

that we might think of as a "psychological immune system,"

認知程序的系統，大量不自覺的認知程序

a system of cognitive processes, largely nonconscious cognitive processes,

能幫助他們改變自己的世界觀

that help them change their views of the world,

能使他們對自己的生活，產生更好的感受

so that they can feel better about the worlds

和托馬斯爵士一樣，你們也有這機器

in which they find themselves.

和托馬斯爵士不一樣的是，你們並不知道這點

Like Sir Thomas, you have this machine.

Unlike Sir Thomas, you seem not to know it.

我們能合成快樂，但我們認為快樂是尋找來的

We synthesize happiness, but we think happiness is a thing to be found.

現在，你們並不需要我給太多合成快樂的例子

Now, you don't need me to give you

too many examples of people synthesizing happiness, I suspect,

但是我要給你們一些實驗例子

一些很容易找到的證據

though I'm going to show you some experimental evidence.

算是給我自己的挑戰， 因為我偶爾在演講時會講

You don't have to look very far for evidence.

I took a copy of the "New York Times"

我用一份紐約時報想試圖找出一些合成快樂的例子

and tried to find some instances of people synthesizing happiness.

這裡有三個人合成快樂

Here are three guys synthesizing happiness.

「我在多方面也比以前好多了， 身體上、經濟上、感情上、精神上、

"I'm better off physically, financially, mentally ..."

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience."

幾乎所有的方面 」、「我沒有一點的遺憾，

"I believe it turned out for the best."

這是一個光榮的歷程」、「最後的結果是最好的」

Who are these characters who are so damn happy?

這些快樂的人究竟是誰呢？

The first one is Jim Wright.

Some of you are old enough to remember:

第一位是吉姆．賴特

he was the chairman of the House of Representatives,

有些人年紀較大可能記得， 他當過美國眾議院主席

and he resigned in disgrace

when this young Republican named Newt Gingrich found out about

因為被一位年輕的共和黨員紐特．金奇

a shady book deal that he had done.

He lost everything.

揭發受賄醜聞而黯然辭職

The most powerful Democrat in the country lost everything:

他失去了一切，曾是全國擁有最大權力的民主黨員

he lost his money, he lost his power.

他失去了一切

What does he have to say all these years later about it?

他失去了他的金錢、他的權力

"I am so much better off physically, financially, mentally

那麼他在多年後說了什麼？

「我好多了，不管是身體上、經濟上、感情上、精神上、

and in almost every other way."

What other way would there be to be better off?

幾乎所有的方面 」

Vegetably? Minerally? Animally?

還有什麼方面能變得更好？

He's pretty much covered them there.

植物上？礦物上？動物上？他差不多都說完啦

Moreese Bickham is somebody you've never heard of.

Moreese Bickham uttered these words upon being released.

你們應該沒有聽說這位慕仁．碧咸

慕仁．碧咸被釋放時說出這些話

He was 78 years old.

He'd spent 37 years in Louisiana State Penitentiary

他那時78歲，他被關了37年，

for a crime he didn't commit.

在路易斯安那州監獄，因一宗他沒有犯的罪

He was ultimately [released for good behavior halfway through his sentence.]

[最終他因為

What did he have to say about his experience?

獄中行為良好 而在刑期的一半中假釋出獄]

"I don't have one minute's regret. It was a glorious experience."

那他被釋放時說了什麼？

Glorious!

「我沒有一點的遺憾，這是一個光榮的歷程。」

This guy's not saying, "There were some nice guys. They had a gym."

光榮的！這傢伙不是說：

"Glorious" -- a word we usually reserve for something like a religious experience.

「嗯，獄中有一些人還不錯的，又有健身房。」

他說「光榮」

這個字通常只用來 形容宗教體驗之類的吧

Harry S. Langerman uttered these words.

He's somebody you might have known but didn't,

哈利．蘭格曼說出以下這些話， 你們可能原本會認識他

because in 1949, he read a little article in the paper

但最後沒有，因為在1949年，他讀了一篇文章

about a hamburger stand owned by these two brothers named McDonald.

關於兩個姓麥當勞的兄弟 所擁有的一個漢堡攤

And he thought, "That's a really neat idea!"

So he went to find them.

他想︰「這是一個非常好的主意！」

They said, "We can give you a franchise on this for 3,000 bucks."

於是，他找到那兩兄弟。他們說︰

Harry went back to New York, asked his brother, an investment banker,

「3000美元，我們就給你經營權」

哈利回到紐約，請他那個做投資銀行家的兄弟

to loan him 3,000 dollars, and his brother's immortal words were,

"You idiot, nobody eats hamburgers."

讓他貸款3000美元

那兄弟的不朽話語是︰

He wouldn't lend him the money.

Of course, six months later, Ray Kroc had exactly the same idea.

「你這白痴，沒有人吃漢堡的」

他沒有借給他錢，當然，半年後

It turns out, people do eat hamburgers,

一位雷‧克羅也有相同的想法

and Ray Kroc, for a while, became the richest man in America.

原來很多人喜歡吃漢堡

有段時間，雷‧克羅成了美國最富有的人

And then, finally,

some of you recognize this young photo of Pete Best,

最後，最精彩的這個

who was the original drummer for the Beatles,

有一些人可能認得這位 彼得‧貝斯特年輕時的照片

until they, you know, sent him out on an errand and snuck away

and picked up Ringo on a tour.

他原是披頭四的鼓手

Well, in 1994, when Pete Best was interviewed --

直到他們打發了他

yes, he's still a drummer; yes, he's a studio musician --

找了林哥一起巡迴

he had this to say: "I'm happier than I would have been with the Beatles."

好了，當彼得在1994年接受採訪時

是，他仍是個鼓手；是，他是個錄音室音樂家

OK, there's something important to be learned from these people,

他曾這樣說：「我現在比我在披頭四時更快樂」

and it is the secret of happiness.

Here it is, finally to be revealed.

好吧。我們可以從這些人身上學到些很重要的東西

First: accrue wealth, power and prestige,

就是快樂的秘訣

then lose it.

現在，要揭露了

(Laughter)

第一：累積財富、權力和威望

Second: spend as much of your life in prison as you possibly can.

然後失去它們

(Laughter)

Third: make somebody else really, really rich.

第二：能被關多久就被關多久

第三：讓別人變得非常非常富有

And finally: never, ever join the Beatles.

(Laughter)

Yeah, right.

Because when people synthesize happiness,

最後：永遠不要加入披頭四

as these gentlemen seem to have done,

現在，像澤‧法蘭克一樣， 我可以預測你們在想什麼

we all smile at them, but we kind of roll our eyes and say,

"Yeah, right, you never really wanted the job."

就是「對啦，最好是」

"Oh yeah, right -- you really didn't have that much in common with her,

因為當人合成快樂時，像這些人的例子

and you figured that out just about the time

我們臉上掛著微笑，但其實都翻著白眼想︰

she threw the engagement ring in your face."

We smirk,

「是嗎？你從來沒有想過要那份工作？」

because we believe that synthetic happiness is not of the same quality

「是嗎？你和她」

確實沒有什麼共同點

as what we might call "natural happiness."

而你就在她把訂婚戒指扔向你的時候

What are these terms?

Natural happiness is what we get when we get what we wanted,

才發現這個事實」

我們偷笑，是因為我們認為合成快樂

and synthetic happiness is what we make when we don't get what we wanted.

次於自然快樂

And in our society, we have a strong belief

這是什麼術語？

自然快樂，是我們得到 心理所想要的東西那種快樂

that synthetic happiness is of an inferior kind.

合成快樂，是我們得不到 想要的東西時，改變想法的快樂

Why do we have that belief?

Well, it's very simple.

What kind of economic engine would keep churning

在我們的社會，我們堅信

if we believed that not getting what we want

合成快樂是比較差的一種

could make us just as happy as getting it?

為什麼我們這樣想？

很簡單，我們的經濟發展

With all apologies to my friend Matthieu Ricard,

會變成怎樣

a shopping mall full of Zen monks

如果我們相信，得不到想要的東西 和得到想要的東西都能同樣地快樂？

is not going to be particularly profitable,

because they don't want stuff enough.

(Laughter)

先向我的朋友馬修‧瑞卡道歉

I want to suggest to you

that synthetic happiness is every bit as real and enduring

一個只有僧侶光顧的購物中心

是很難取得高利潤

as the kind of happiness you stumble upon

因他們的購買慾不夠強

when you get exactly what you were aiming for.

Now, I'm a scientist, so I'm going to do this not with rhetoric,

我想告訴各位，合成快樂的

but by marinating you in a little bit of data.

真實性和持久性

Let me first show you an experimental paradigm

其實和那種當你達到目標

that's used to demonstrate the synthesis of happiness

所得到的快樂一樣程度

among regular old folks.

我是一個科學家，所以我不只是空談

This isn't mine,

我會用一些數據來感化你們

it's a 50-year-old paradigm called the "free choice paradigm."

首先，這個典型的實驗範例

It's very simple.

You bring in, say, six objects,

用來說明合成的快樂

and you ask a subject to rank them from the most to the least liked.

這是較早之前的，不是我的範例

In this case, because this experiment uses them,

差不多50年前的，稱為自由選擇模式

these are Monet prints.

這很簡單

Everybody ranks these Monet prints from the one they like the most

你有6件物件

to the one they like the least.

請你的實驗對象用自己 對物件的好感程度排名

Now we give you a choice:

在這實驗中的研究員使用了

"We happen to have some extra prints in the closet.

We're going to give you one as your prize to take home.

莫內的畫

每個人都以喜好來排這些莫內的印刷畫

We happen to have number three and number four," we tell the subject.

由最喜歡到最不喜歡

現在，我們告訴你：

This is a bit of a difficult choice,

「我們有些多餘的印刷畫放在櫃子裡」

because neither one is preferred strongly to the other,

but naturally, people tend to pick number three,

「我們送你一張作為獎品」

「我們正好有3號和4號」

because they liked it a little better than number four.

就這樣告訴他們，這是個有點困難的抉擇

Sometime later -- it could be 15 minutes, it could be 15 days --

因為兩張沒有太大的喜好差異

the same stimuli are put before the subject,

但自然地，他們傾向選擇3號

and the subject is asked to re-rank the stimuli.

因為比4號還更喜歡一點

"Tell us how much you like them now."

What happens?

之後，可能是15分鐘後，也可能是15天後

Watch as happiness is synthesized.

This is the result that's been replicated over and over again.

實驗對象會再看同一組物件

You're watching happiness be synthesized.

請他們重新排列好感程度

Would you like to see it again?

「請告訴我們，你有多喜歡它們」

會發生什麼事呢？請看快樂被合成

Happiness!

"The one I got is really better than I thought!

重做實驗也得出這結果

That other one I didn't get sucks!"

That's the synthesis of happiness.

你們正在看快樂被合成

(Laughter)

你們想再看一次嗎？快樂！

Now, what's the right response to that?

"Yeah, right!"

「我擁有的那件物件真的比我想像中好！

Now, here's the experiment we did,

「我沒有選擇的那件物件真爛！」

and I hope this is going to convince you

這正是合成的快樂

that "Yeah, right!" was not the right response.

好了，正確的反應怎樣的？「噢，真的嗎？」

We did this experiment with a group of patients

who had anterograde amnesia.

These are hospitalized patients.

這個是我們做的實驗

Most of them have Korsakoff syndrome,

希望這個實驗能說服你們

a polyneuritic psychosis.

「對啦，最好是」不是正確的反應

They drank way too much, and they can't make new memories.

我們以病人為實驗對象來重做以上的實驗，

是患有順行性遺忘症的病人，長期住院的患者

They remember their childhood, but if you walk in and introduce yourself

他們多數患有科爾薩科夫氏症候群

and then leave the room,

一種複合性神經炎 - 他們酒喝太多

when you come back, they don't know who you are.

We took our Monet prints to the hospital.

無法製造新的回憶

懂嗎？他們還記得童年， 但如果你向他們自我介紹

And we asked these patients to rank them

from the one they liked the most to the one they liked the least.

然後離開房間

當你再回去時，他們已經忘記你是誰

We then gave them the choice between number three and number four.

我們把莫內的印刷畫帶到醫院

Like everybody else, they said,

要這些病人排名

"Gee, thanks Doc! That's great! I could use a new print.

從最喜歡到最不喜歡

I'll take number three."

We explained we would have number three mailed to them.

然後，要他們選3號或4號作為禮物

We gathered up our materials,

和其他人一樣，他們說：

and we went out of the room and counted to a half hour.

「哎呀，多謝醫生！太棒了！我正好要張新的畫

(Laughter)

我要3號」

Back into the room, we say, "Hi, we're back."

我們告訴他們會郵寄3號那張過去

The patients, bless them, say, "Ah, Doc, I'm sorry,

我們整理好東西就離開了房間

I've got a memory problem; that's why I'm here.

然後等了半小時

If I've met you before, I don't remember."

之後回到房間，我們說︰「嗨，我們回來了」

"Really, Jim, you don't remember? I was just here with the Monet prints?"

那些病人，真的要保佑他們，說：「啊，對不起醫生

"Sorry, Doc, I just don't have a clue."

"No problem, Jim.

我有記憶問題，正是我住院的原因

All I want you to do is rank these for me,

如果我之前遇見你，我已經忘了」

from the one you like the most to the one you like the least."

「真的嗎，吉姆，你不記得？ 我剛剛才拿了莫內的印刷畫過來」

What do they do?

「對不起醫生，我真的不知道」

Well, let's first check and make sure they're really amnesiac.

「沒關係，吉姆，我只想請你幫我把這些印刷畫

We ask these amnesiac patients to tell us which one they own,

從最喜歡到最不喜歡作排名」

which one they chose last time, which one is theirs.

他們會做什麼？好，讓我們先測試一下

And what we find is, amnesiac patients just guess.

他們是不是真的忘記了，所以要求

These are normal controls, where if I did this with you,

請他們指出自己擁有的那一張

all of you would know which print you chose.

就是他們之前選的那張，送他們的那張

But if I do this with amnesiac patients, they don't have a clue.

我們發現失憶症患者只是用猜的

They can't pick their print out of a lineup.

這是標準的對照組，如果我要你們答這問題

Here's what normal controls do: they synthesize happiness. Right?

你們每一位都能指出那張是屬於你的

如果我要失憶症患者答這個問題

This is the change in liking score,

他們真的不知道，無法選出屬於他們的那張印刷畫

the change from the first time they ranked to the second time they ranked.

Normal controls show -- that was the magic I showed you;

以下是標準的對照組會做的事：他們會合成快樂

now I'm showing it to you in graphical form --

"The one I own is better than I thought.

對不對？這是喜好評分的改變

The one I didn't own, the one I left behind,

這是從他們第一次排列和第二次排列之間的變化

is not as good as I thought."

標準的對照組顯示

- 這是我之前展示給你們的魔術，

Amnesiacs do exactly the same thing. Think about this result.

現在我以圖表形式展示給你們 -

「我擁有的那件比我想像中好，我沒有的那件

These people like better the one they own,

but they don't know they own it.

我放棄的那件，真的不如我想像中好」

失憶症患者做同樣的事情， 請細想這個實驗結果

"Yeah, right" is not the right response!

What these people did when they synthesized happiness

這些人更喜歡他們自己擁有那張

但他們不知道自己擁有它

is they really, truly changed

their affective, hedonic, aesthetic reactions to that poster.

「對啦，最好是」並不是正確的反應！

當他們合成快樂時

They're not just saying it because they own it,

because they don't know they own it.

他們真正改變了

When psychologists show you bars,

對那張印刷畫感情上的、快樂的、審美的反應

you know that they are showing you averages of lots of people.

他們不只是因為自己擁有它

And yet, all of us have this psychological immune system,

因為他們根本不知道

this capacity to synthesize happiness,

but some of us do this trick better than others.

現在，當心理學家展示長條圖

And some situations allow anybody to do it more effectively

你們要知道，是顯示很多人的平均數

然而，我們每個人都有這個心理免疫系統

than other situations do.

這種合成快樂的能力

It turns out that freedom,

但有些人在這方面的能力比別人好

the ability to make up your mind and change your mind,

在某些情況下會比其他情況更容許人

is the friend of natural happiness,

有效地發揮這能力

because it allows you to choose among all those delicious futures

and find the one that you would most enjoy.

原來自由

But freedom to choose,

- 即決定和改變思想的能力 -

to change and make up your mind,

is the enemy of synthetic happiness,

是"自然快樂"的朋友，因為它讓你選擇

and I'm going to show you why.

一個最完美的未來和找到你最喜歡的那個

Dilbert already knows, of course.

"Dogbert's tech support. How may I abuse you?"

"My printer prints a blank page after every document."

但，有選擇的自由

"Why complain about getting free paper?"

- 改變思想和決定的能力 - 是"合成快樂"的敵人

"Free? Aren't you just giving me my own paper?"

"Look at the quality of the free paper compared to your lousy regular paper!

我會告訴你為什麼

代伯特當然已經知道這一點

我一邊念你們跟著看這則漫畫

Only a fool or a liar would say that they look the same!"

「狗伯特技術中心，我能虐待你什麼嗎？」

"Now that you mention it, it does seem a little silkier!"

「我的印表機每次印完，就會跑出一張白紙」

"What are you doing?"

「為什麼你會抱怨收到免費的紙？」

"I'm helping people accept the things they cannot change." Indeed.

「免費？那白紙是我自己的阿」

「哎呀，大哥！請把這張紙

The psychological immune system works best

和你的普通廉價紙的質感比較一下！

只有傻瓜或說謊的人，才會說它們是相同的！」

when we are totally stuck, when we are trapped.

「啊！你這樣一說，真的看來好像比較光滑！」

This is the difference between dating and marriage.

You go out on a date with a guy,

「你在做什麼？」

and he picks his nose; you don't go out on another date.

「我幫助人們接受他們不能改變的事情」，正是如此

You're married to a guy and he picks his nose?

我們的心理免疫系統

He has a heart of gold. Don't touch the fruitcake!

在我們不能改變的情況下 能達到最佳成效

You find a way to be happy with what's happened.

這就像約會和婚姻的分別，對不對？

(Laughter)

Now, what I want to show you

我的意思是，妳與一個男人約會，

is that people don't know this about themselves,

他挖鼻孔，你可選擇不再與他約會

and not knowing this can work to our supreme disadvantage.

假如妳是妳丈夫挖鼻孔呢？

是啊，他心腸很好

但不准碰水果蛋糕，對吧？

Here's an experiment we did at Harvard.

你找到一個能對現況感到快樂的方法

We created a black-and-white photography course,

and we allowed students to come in and learn how to use a darkroom.

現在我要告訴你們

人們並不知道這一點

So we gave them cameras, they went around campus,

they took 12 pictures of their favorite professors

不知道這一點對我們很不利

and their dorm room and their dog,

以下是個我們在哈佛大學做的實驗

and all the other things they wanted to have Harvard memories of.

我們開了一門黑白攝影課程

They bring us the camera, we make up a contact sheet,

讓學生們學習如何使用暗房

they figure out which are the two best pictures.

我們給他們相機，他們在校園內

We now spend six hours teaching them about darkrooms,

拍攝12張有關自己喜歡的教授、宿舍、狗等等的圖片

and they blow two of them up.

They have two gorgeous 8 x 10 glossies

of meaningful things to them, and we say,

一些他們希望想要留念的哈佛回憶

"Which one would you like to give up?"

然後我們做成一張相片的縮圖表

"I have to give one up?"

"Yes, we need one as evidence of the class project.

讓他們選出最好的兩張照片

接著我們花6個小時教他們暗房的運作

So you have to give me one. You have to make a choice.

他們把那兩張照片放大

You get to keep one, and I get to keep one."

成為極美的8 × 10，有光澤的又

對他們有意義的照片，接著我們說︰

Now, there are two conditions in this experiment.

「你想放棄哪一張？」

In one case, the students are told,

他們問︰「我需要放棄一張嗎？」

"But you know, if you want to change your mind,

「噢，是的。我們需要其中一張作為課程的證據

I'll always have the other one here,

所以你必須給我一張，你必須作出抉擇

and in the next four days, before I actually mail it to headquarters" --

你得一張，我得一張

yeah, "headquarters" --

此實驗有兩個情況

(Laughter)

"I'll be glad to swap it out with you.

情況一，我們告訴學生︰「你要知道，

In fact, I'll come to your dorm room, just give me an email.

如果你改變了主意，我還會有另一張在這裡

Better yet, I'll check with you.

在我寄到總部之前，還有4天考慮

You ever want to change your mind, it's totally returnable."

The other half of the students are told exactly the opposite:

我會很樂意…」 -(群眾笑聲) - 是，我說"總部"

"Make your choice, and by the way,

「我很樂意讓你換回去，不如這樣

the mail is going out, gosh, in two minutes, to England.

我會送到你的宿舍

Your picture will be winging its way over the Atlantic.

你只要寫封電郵給我，或更好的方法，我主動先問你

You will never see it again."

你隨時改變了主意，我們隨時能交換照片

Half of the students in each of these conditions

另一半的學生情形相反

are asked to make predictions

about how much they're going to come to like

「請你作出一個決定，而且

the picture that they keep

我們差不多在兩分鐘後就要去英格蘭

and the picture they leave behind.

Other students are just sent back to their little dorm rooms

你的照片將飛越大西洋

你將再也看不到它了」

and they are measured over the next three to six days

現在，我們請兩種情況中各一半的學生

on their satisfaction with the pictures.

預測他們對於

Look at what we find.

選了的和放棄的兩張照片

First of all, here's what students think is going to happen.

會發展怎樣的喜歡程度

They think they're going to maybe come to like the picture they chose

另一半的學生們被送回他們的宿舍

a little more than the one they left behind.

測量他們在之後的3至6天

But these are not statistically significant differences.

對照片的喜歡程度和滿意程度

It's a very small increase, and it doesn't much matter

看看我們發現什麼

首先，這是學生們認為會發生的情況

whether they were in the reversible or irreversible condition.

他們認為會喜歡他們選了的照片

Wrong-o.

Bad simulators.

Because here's what's really happening.

多過他們放棄的那張照片

Both right before the swap and five days later,

但差異並不大

people who are stuck with that picture,

who have no choice,

只有小小的增加，無論這是

who can never change their mind,

可退換或不可退換的情況沒有影響他們

like it a lot.

And people who are deliberating -- "Should I return it?

錯了喔，模擬器笨蛋，因為這才是真正發生的事

Have I gotten the right one?

Maybe this isn't the good one. Maybe I left the good one?" --

交換前和交換五天後

have killed themselves.

那些不能更換的人

They don't like their picture.

In fact, even after the opportunity to swap has expired,

沒有選擇餘地的人

無法改變主意的人，變得很喜歡他們選的照片！

they still don't like their picture.

Why?

那些還在考慮 - 「我應該換回另一張照片嗎？

Because the [reversible] condition is not conducive

也許我擁有這一張照片並不是好的那張？

to the synthesis of happiness.

也許我沒選的那張照片才是好的？」煩死自己了

So here's the final piece of this experiment.

他們不喜歡他們的照片，而且

選擇期限過後

We bring in a whole new group of naive Harvard students

他們仍然不喜歡他們的照片，為什麼？

and we say, "You know, we're doing a photography course,

and we can do it one of two ways.

因為一個可轉變的情況是不利於

We could do it so that when you take the two pictures,

快樂的合成

you'd have four days to change your mind,

好，這是實驗的最後一個部分

or we're doing another course where you take the two pictures

我們邀請了全新一群天真的哈佛學生

and you make up your mind right away and you can never change it.

告訴他們︰「我們開設了一個攝影課程，

Which course would you like to be in?" Duh!

Sixty-six percent of the students, two-thirds,

有以下兩種班級

prefer to be in the course where they have the opportunity to change their mind.

讓你們各拍兩張照片

你們有4天的時間去改變主意

Hello? Sixty-six percent of the students choose to be in the course

或另一種，讓你們各拍兩張照片

要你們立即選一張

in which they will ultimately be deeply dissatisfied with the picture --

且不能改變主意，你們希望上哪一班？」

噢！百分之66的學生，三分之二

(Laughter)

because they do not know the conditions under which synthetic happiness grows.

寧願選有機會改變主意的那班

The Bard said everything best, of course, and he's making my point here

哈囉？百分之66的學生想要那種最終將會

but he's making it hyperbolically:

令他們深感不滿的選擇

"'Tis nothing good or bad But thinking makes it so."

因為他們不知道合成快樂能在什麼情況下發生

It's nice poetry, but that can't exactly be right.

Is there really nothing good or bad?

莎士比亞說的最好，他在表達出我的觀點

Is it really the case that gall bladder surgery and a trip to Paris

are just the same thing?

雖然有點誇張

(Laughter)

That seems like a one-question IQ test.

「事情並無好壞 / 是我們的思維使之如此」

They can't be exactly the same.

這是很好的詩句，但不完全準確

In more turgid prose, but closer to the truth,

真的沒什麼好壞的事嗎？

was the father of modern capitalism, Adam Smith, and he said this.

膽囊手術和巴黎度假

This is worth contemplating:

是一樣嗎？比較像是在考你 IQ吧

"The great source of both the misery and disorders of human life

seems to arise from overrating the difference

它們不完全一樣

between one permanent situation and another.

以較無聊但較貼近事實的散文來說

Some of these situations may, no doubt, deserve to be preferred to others,

現代資本主義之父，亞當斯密曾說

非常值得思考

but none of them can deserve to be pursued

「人的生命中所受的痛苦和不幸

with that passionate ardor which drives us to violate the rules

似乎都源於錯估了

either of prudence or of justice,

兩種不能改變的情況會產生的差異

or to corrupt the future tranquility of our minds,

有一些情況，毫無疑問地，應該令人較喜歡

either by shame from the remembrance of our own folly,

但沒有一種情況值得一個人

or by remorse for the horror of our own injustice."

In other words: yes, some things are better than others.

因要熱情地追求它，而違反

We should have preferences that lead us into one future over another.

謹慎或正義的原則，或令我們安寧的心神腐壞

But when those preferences drive us too hard and too fast

無論是因為記起我們的愚蠢行為而感到恥辱

because we have overrated the difference between these futures,

或因我們不公正的恐怖行為而痛悔」

we are at risk.

換句話說：是，有些東西比其他的好

When our ambition is bounded, it leads us to work joyfully.

我們應該用自己的喜好去選擇一個未來

When our ambition is unbounded,

it leads us to lie, to cheat, to steal, to hurt others,

但當這些喜好，驅使我們過度強硬和過急

to sacrifice things of real value.

因為我們錯估了兩種未來的差別時

When our fears are bounded,

we're prudent, we're cautious,

我們便處於危險中

we're thoughtful.

When our fears are unbounded and overblown,

當我們的野心受限，我們能高興地工作

we're reckless, and we're cowardly.

當我們的野心沒有限制，我們會說謊言、欺騙、偷竊、傷害他人

The lesson I want to leave you with, from these data,

is that our longings and our worries are both to some degree overblown,

犧牲掉真正價值的東西。當我們的恐懼受限

because we have within us the capacity to manufacture the very commodity

我們會變得慎重、謹慎、深思熟慮

當我們的恐懼沒有限制

we are constantly chasing when we choose experience.

我們會變得魯莽、怯懦

Thank you.

我希望在這演講中，你們能學到的是

(Applause)

我們太過於放大我們的渴望和憂慮了

其實我們已經有能力去生產出那個

當我們做選擇時，不斷追求的東西

謝謝