The paradox of choice | Barry Schwartz | TED

Translator: Relja Cvjeticanin Reviewer: Sandra Gojic

I'm going to talk to you about some stuff that's in this book of mine

Danas ću vam govoriti o nekim stvarima o kojima sam pisao u mojoj knjizi

that I hope will resonate with other things you've already heard,

koje će vam, nadam se, potvrditi ono što ste čuli do sada.

and I'll try to make some connections myself,

I tokom toga ću pokušati da povezujem neke detalje - za slučaj da ih promašite.

in case you miss them.

But I want to start with what I call the "official dogma."

Počeću sa nečim što ja zovem "zvanična dogma".

The official dogma of what?

"Zvanična dogma" čega?

The official dogma of all Western industrial societies.

Zvanična dogma svih zapadnjačkih zemalja.

And the official dogma runs like this:

Suština tog verovanja je u sledećem:

if we are interested in maximizing the welfare of our citizens,

ako želimo da poboljšamo blagostanje naših državljana,♫

the way to do that is to maximize individual freedom.

najbolji način da to postignemo je da savršeno poboljšamo ličnu slobodu.

The reason for this is both that freedom is, in and of itself, good,

Razlog je da je sloboda sama po sebi dobra i

valuable, worthwhile, essential to being human,

vredna stvar i da je apsolutno potrebna čovečanstvu.

and because if people have freedom,

I onda, ako čovek ima slobodu

then each of us can act on our own

onda može da se ponaša kako želi

to do the things that will maximize our welfare,

i, kao rezultat može da poboljša lično blagostanje,

and no one has to decide on our behalf.

jer jedino on lično zna šta mu najbolje odgovara.

The way to maximize freedom is to maximize choice.

Dakle osnovni način da postignemo maksimalnu slobodu je da poboljšamo mogućnost izbora.

The more choice people have, the more freedom they have,

Što više čovek ima izbora, to više ima slobodu,

and the more freedom they have,

i što više ima slobodu,

the more welfare they have.

to mu je bolje blagostanje.

This, I think, is so deeply embedded in the water supply

Mislim da je ovaj mentalitet toliko usađen u društvenom verovanju na zapadu

that it wouldn't occur to anyone to question it.

da nikom ne bi palo na pamet da misli na drugi način.

A isto je tako usađen i u naš način života.

And it's also deeply embedded in our lives.

I'll give you some examples

Evo jednog primera kako je moderan napredak pomogao društvu:

of what modern progress has made possible for us.

This is my supermarket.

Ovo je moja lokalna samoposluga. Nije ni tako velika.

Not such a big one.

I want to say just a word about salad dressing.

Želeo bih da kažem nešto o prelivima za salatu.

A hundred seventy-five salad dressings in my supermarket,

Prodaju 175 drugačijih preliva za salatu u ovoj samoposluzi

if you don't count the 10 extra-virgin olive oils

i 10 vrsta najkvalitetnijih maslinovih ulja

and 12 balsamic vinegars you could buy

i 12 vrsta sirćeta

to make a very large number of your own salad dressings,

tako da možeš napraviti ogromni broj varijanti preliva za salatu

in the off-chance that none of the 175 the store has on offer suit you.

za slučaj da vam nijedan od tih 175 gotovih preliva ne odgovara.

So this is what the supermarket is like.

Tako je u modernoj samoposluzi.

And then you go to the consumer electronics store

I onda ako hoćete da kupite muzički uređaj i odete u radnju za elektroniku --

to set up a stereo system --

speakers, CD player, tape player, tuner, amplifier --

naći ćete sve od zvučnika do plejera za CD-ove i kasete, stimera i pojačalo.

and in this one single consumer electronics store,

Ovo je samo jedna radnja za elektroniku,

there are that many stereo systems.

a postoji puno varijacija za muzičke uređaje.

We can construct six and a half million different stereo systems

Može čovek da sastavi šest i po' milliona drugačijih muzičkih uređaja

out of the components that are on offer in one store.

od tih delova koji se prodaju u samo jednoj radnji.

You've got to admit that's a lot of choice.

Morate priznati da postoji jako puno izbora za muzičke uređaje.

In other domains -- the world of communications.

U drugim oblastima -- komunikacije na primer.

There was a time, when I was a boy,

Kada sam ja bio dečak,

when you could get any kind of telephone service you wanted,

čovek je mogao da dobije kakvu god telefonsku uslugu je želeo,

as long as it came from Ma Bell.

jedino ako je dolazila od Ma Bell-a.

You rented your phone, you didn't buy it.

Čovek je zakupio telefon - nije ga kupio.

One consequence of that, by the way, is that the phone never broke.

A kao rezultat te zakupnine, telefon je uvek radio kako treba.

And those days are gone.

Takvog servisa više nema.

We now have an almost unlimited variety of phones,

Sada imamo skoro neograničenu varijantu telefona,

especially in the world of cell phones.

a pogotovo što se tiče tržišta mobilnih telefona.

These are cell phones of the future.

Ovo su mobilni telefoni budućnosti.

My favorite is the middle one --

Moj omiljeni je onaj u sredini --

the MP3 player, nose hair trimmer, and crème brûlée torch.

koji služi kao MP3 plejer, trimer za dlake u nosu i baklja za creme brulee.

And if --

I za slučaj da ga niste videli u prodavnici do sada,

(Laughter)

if by some chance you haven't seen that in your store yet,

you can rest assured that one day soon, you will.

možete biti sigurni da ćete uskoro moći.

And what this does is it leads people to walk into their stores,

I šta ovo postigne je

da ljudi onda odu u prodavnicu sami sebi postavljavljajući to pitanje.

asking this question.

And do you know what the answer to this question now is?

A naravno ogdovor za to pitanje je

The answer is "no."

"Ne".

It is not possible to buy a cell phone that doesn't do too much.

Čovek jednostavno ne može više da kupi običan mobilini telefon.

So, in other aspects of life that are much more significant than buying things,

Znači, u drugim oblastima života, koji su mnogo značajniji nego materijalna potrošnja,

the same explosion of choice is true.

postoji slično polje izbora.

Health care.

Na primer u medicini -- više nije moguće u SAD

It is no longer the case in the United States

that you go to the doctor, and the doctor tells you what to do.

da odete kod doktora i doktor vam kaže kako ćete se najbolje izlečiti.

Instead, you go to the doctor,

Umesto toga, odete kod doktora,

and the doctor tells you, "Well, we could do A, or we could do B.

i doktor vam kaže "pa mogli biste izabrati opciju A ili opciju B.

A has these benefits and these risks.

A vam može pomoći ovako, ali ima ove rizike.

B has these benefits and these risks.

B vam može pomoći onako, sa onim rizicima. Šta vi želite da uradite?"

What do you want to do?"

And you say, "Doc, what should I do?"

I onda vi kažete "Doktore šta vi mislite da bi bila najbolja opcija?"

And the doc says, "A has these benefits and risks,

i doktor vam kaže "Pa opcija A vam može ovako pomoći sa ovim rizicima, i B vam može pomoći onako sa onim rizicima.

and B has these benefits and risks.

What do you want to do?"

Šta vi želite da uradite?"

And you say, "If you were me, Doc, what would you do?"

A vi kažete "doktore, da ste vi u mojoj poziciji šta bi ste odlučili?"

And the doc says, "But I'm not you."

i doktor vam kaže "Ali nisam u vašoj poziciji, jedino vi možete odlučiti sami za sebe."

And the result is -- we call it "patient autonomy,"

I rezultat toga je nešto što se zove "pacijentska autonomija",

which makes it sound like a good thing,

i to naravno zvuči kao dobra stvar.

but what it really is is a shifting of the burden and the responsibility

Ali ustvari samo promeni situaciju tako da odgovornost

nije više sa osobom koja zna nešto -

for decision-making

from somebody who knows something -- namely, the doctor --

naime sa doktorom -

nego je sa osobom koja ne zna toliko i boluje

to somebody who knows nothing and is almost certainly sick

and thus, not in the best shape to be making decisions --

i dakle nije u najboljem stanju da napravi odluke -

namely, the patient.

naime, pacijentom.

There's enormous marketing of prescription drugs

Količina reklama za lekove na recept koji su usmereni za

to people like you and me,

generalnu populaciju je ogromna.

which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all,

A to nema nekog smisla

since we can't buy them.

zato što ih ne možemo kupiti.

Why do they market to us if we can't buy them?

Zašto je taj marketing usmeren za ljude koji ih ne mogu kupiti?

The answer is that they expect us to call our doctors the next morning

Zato što čim čovek čuje reklamu najverovatnije će nazvati doktora

and ask for our prescriptions to be changed.

i pitaće ga da mu promeni recept.

Something as dramatic as our identity

Čak i nešto kao čovekov identitet

has now become a matter of choice,

je sada stvar izbora,

as this slide is meant to indicate.

kao što možete videti ovde.

We don't inherit an identity; we get to invent it.

Čovek više ne nasledi identitet, nego ga može izmisliti.

And we get to reinvent ourselves as often as we like.

Može da promeni sam sebe koliko god puta želi.

And that means that every day, when you wake up in the morning,

Znači da svako jutro kada se čovek probudi,

mora da izabere kakvu ličnost, kakav identitet, želi da ima.

you have to decide what kind of person you want to be.

With respect to marriage and family:

Što se tiče braka i porodice,

there was a time when the default assumption that almost everyone had

nekad je postojalo vreme kada se predpostavljalo da

is that you got married as soon as you could,

se čovek venčao čim je mogao,

and then you started having kids as soon as you could.

i da je počeo da ima decu čim je mogao.

Jedino je čovek izabrao s kim će se venčati,

The only real choice was who,

not when, and not what you did after.

ne kada će se venčati i što se tiče dece - čovek ih je imao bez da misli previše.

Nowadays, everything is very much up for grabs.

U današnje vreme sve je stvar izbora.

I teach wonderfully intelligent students,

Ja predajem vrlo inteligentnim studentima,

and I assign 20 percent less work than I used to.

i dam im 20 posto manje zadataka nego što sam pre davao.

And it's not because they're less smart,

Naravno razlog nije zato što nisu inteligentni,

and it's not because they're less diligent.

i nije zato što su lenji.

It's because they are preoccupied, asking themselves,

Nego je zato što su zaokupljeni pitanjima života:

"Should I get married or not? Should I get married now?

"Da li treba da se venčam? Kada bih trebao da se venčam - odmah ili

Should I get married later?

za nekoliko godina? Kako da izaberem između dece i karijere?"

Should I have kids first or a career first?"

All of these are consuming questions.

Ta pitanja su dosta zbunjujuća, a

And they're going to answer these questions,

studenti će naći odgovore za ta pitanja,

whether or not it means not doing all the work I assign

čak i ako to znači da ne završe sav rad koji sam im zadao

and not getting a good grade in my courses.

i takođe ako dobiju lošije ocene zato što nisu skoncentrisani.

And indeed they should.

A naravno ta pitanja jesu bitna.

These are important questions to answer.

Work.

Današnja tehnologija - kao što je Karl rekao ranije -

We are blessed, as Carl was pointing out,

with the technology that enables us to work every minute of every day

daje ljudima priliku da mogu da rade u koje god doba dana,

i odakle god da su na svetu -

from any place on the planet --

except the Randolph Hotel.

osim hotela 'Randolph'.

(Laughter)

(Smejanje)

(Applause)

There is one corner, by the way,

Ustvari postoji jedan ćošak u hotelu,

that I'm not going to tell anybody about, where the WiFi actually works.

gde radi bežični internet - ali neću vam reći gde je taj ćošak

I'm not telling you about it, because I want to use it.

zato što ja hoću da ga koristim bez gužve.

So what this means,

Šta to ustvari znači, ova neverovatna sloboda izbora koju imamo

this incredible freedom of choice we have with respect to work,

u vezi posla, znači da moramo da napravimo odluku

is that we have to make a decision,

again and again and again,

nekoliko puta uzastopce,

about whether we should or shouldn't be working.

o tome da li i kada bi trebali da radimo.

We can go to watch our kid play soccer,

Može čovek odlučiti da ode i da gleda njegovo dete na fudbalskom terenu,

and we have our cell phone on one hip and our Blackberry on our other hip,

i da ponese mobilni telefon,

Blackberry i laptop kompjuter

and our laptop, presumably, on our laps.

sa sobom.

And even if they're all shut off,

Ali, čak ako su svi ti aparati isključeni,

every minute that we're watching our kid mutilate a soccer game,

dok čovek gleda utakmicu,

we are also asking ourselves,

konstantno se pita,

"Should I answer this cell phone call?

"Da ogdovorim na telefon?

Should I respond to this email? Should I draft this letter?"

Da odgovorim na ovaj e-mejl? Da napišem ovo pismo?"

And even if the answer to the question is "no,"

Čak ako i strogo odgovori na ova pitanja sa "ne",

it's certainly going to make the experience of your kid's soccer game

samo to što ima izbor da radi umesto da gleda utakmicu

very different than it would've been.

znači da će mu iskustvo utakmice biti potpuno drugačije.

So everywhere we look,

U svakom smislu,

big things and small things, material things and lifestyle things,

i u nebitnim i u relativno važnijim situacijama,

life is a matter of choice.

sve je stvar izbora.

And the world we used to live in looked like this.

Pre nekoliko godina, svet je izgledao ovako.

[Well, actually, they are written in stone.]

That is to say, there were some choices,

Znači, bilo je izvesnog nivoa izbora,

but not everything was a matter of choice.

ali nije sve bilo stvar izbora.

The world we now live in looks like this.

Trenutno, svet nam izgleda kao što smo već rekli.

[The Ten Commandments Do-It-Yourself Kit]

Sada je pitanje je da li je ovo dobra ili loša vest?

And the question is: Is this good news or bad news?

And the answer is "yes."

Odgovor je 'da'.

(Laughter)

(Smejanje)

We all know what's good about it,

Svi znamo šta je dobro sa ovim novim izborima u životu,

so I'm going to talk about what's bad about it.

tako da ću se skoncentrisati na lošije strane ove, sadašnje, situacije.

All of this choice has two effects,

Sav ovaj izbor ima dva efekta,

two negative effects on people.

dva negativna efekta na ljude.

One effect, paradoxically,

Jedan efekat, paradoksalno,

is that it produces paralysis rather than liberation.

je da ljudi u suštini imaju više paralizovan, umesto slobodnog načina života.

With so many options to choose from,

Sa toliko puno opcija,

people find it very difficult to choose at all.

čoveku je teško da napravi bilo kakvu odluku.

I'll give you one very dramatic example of this,

Daću vam jedan vrlo dramatičan primer ovoga,

a study that was done of investments in voluntary retirement plans.

gde je istraživanje bilo urađeno na dobrovoljnim penzijskim fondovima.

A colleague of mine got access to investment records from Vanguard,

Moja koleginica je dobila pristup izveštaju financijskih ulaganja 'Vanguard'-a,

the gigantic mutual fund company,

ogromne kompanije koja se bavi sa penzijskim fondovima

of about a million employees and about 2,000 different workplaces.

i koja ima otprilike milion radnika i oko dve hiljade kancelarija.

What she found is that for every 10 mutual funds the employer offered,

Šta je ovo istraživanje pokazalo je da

za svakih 10 uzajamnih fondova koje je poslodavac ponudio,

rate of participation went down two percent.

stopa učešća je pala za dva odsto.

You offer 50 funds -- 10 percent fewer employees participate

Znači, ako ponude 50 fondova -- 10 odsto manje radnika učestvuje

than if you only offer five.

nego kada ponude pet fondova. Zašto?

Why?

Because with 50 funds to choose from,

Zato što od 50 fondova,

it's so damn hard to decide which fund to choose,

teško je odlučiti koji fond da odaberu, tako da odlože

that you'll just put it off till tomorrow,

odluku do sutra,

and then tomorrow

i onda sutra opet odlože do sutra, itd.

and then tomorrow and tomorrow,

itd.

and, of course, tomorrow never comes.

A naravno to konstantno odlaganje znači da im treba mnogo više vremena da odluče u koji fond će uložiti pare.

Understand that not only does this mean

Ovo takođe ne samo da znači da će

that people are going to have to eat dog food when they retire

ovi radnici morati jesti čak i kereću hranu kada odu u penziju

because they don't have enough money put away,

zato što nemaju dovoljno ušteđenih para, nego

it also means that making the decision is so hard

znači da zato što je ta odluka uzela toliko vremena,

that they pass up significant matching money from the employer.

oni će takođe da propuste značajan dodatak u fond koji posladavac nudi tokom vremena tokom kojeg su oni 'odlučivali'.

By not participating, they are passing up as much as 5,000 dollars a year

Time što ne učestvuju oni propuste do 5.000 dolara godišnje

from the employer,

od posladavca, koji bi rado zadovoljio njihov doprinos u fond.

who would happily match their contribution.

So paralysis is a consequence of having too many choices.

Tako da je određena paraliza posledica previše izbora,

And I think it makes the world look like this.

i mislim da sav taj izbor znači da nam svet izgleda ovako.

[And lastly, for all eternity, French, bleu cheese or ranch?]

(Smejanje)

(Laughter)

You really want to get the decision right if it's for all eternity, right?

Sigurno hoćete da napravite dobru odluku ako će ona biti za sva vremena, jel tako?

You don't want to pick the wrong mutual fund or wrong salad dressing.

Nećete da izaberete pogrešni fond, ili pogrešan preliv za salatu.

So that's one effect.

Dakle to je jedan efekat. Drugi efekat je da

The second effect is that, even if we manage to overcome the paralysis

čak i ako možemo da prevaziđemo tu paralizu i napravimo odluku,♪

and make a choice,

we end up less satisfied with the result of the choice

nekako dođemo u situaciju da smo manje zadovoljni sa odlukom

than we would be if we had fewer options to choose from.

nego što bi bili da imamo manje opcija.

And there are several reasons for this.

Ima nekoliko razloga za ovo.

One of them is, with a lot of different salad dressings to choose from,

Jedan razlog je da sa puno izbora za preliv za salatu,

if you buy one and it's not perfect -- and what salad dressing is? --

ako kupite jednu vrstu, i nije perfektan -- onda se počnete pitati koji preliv za salatu jeste idealan?

it's easy to imagine that you could've made a different choice

Lako je zamisliti situaciju gde ste izabrali drugačiju vrstu

that would've been better.

koja bi bila bolja. Šta se desi je

And what happens is,

this imagined alternative induces you to regret the decision you made,

da vas ova zamišljena alternativa tera da zažalite zbog odluke koju ste napravili,

and this regret subtracts from the satisfaction you get

i ovo žaljenje vam smanji zadovoljstvo koje ste dobili sa tom originalnom odlukom,

out of the decision you made,

even if it was a good decision.

pa čak i ako je to bila dobra odluka.

The more options there are, the easier it is to regret anything at all

Što ima više opcija to znači da je lakše da se zažali ista što

that is disappointing about the option that you chose.

je i malo razočaravajuće u toj opciji koju ste izabrali.

Second, what economists call "opportunity costs."

A drugo je, kako bi rekli ekonomisti "propuštena dobit".

Dan Gilbert made a big point this morning

Dan Gilbert je jutros istakao da

of talking about how much the way in which we value things

koliko nam nešto vredi

depends on what we compare them to.

zavisi o tome sa čim možemo da uporedimo tu stvar.

Well, when there are lots of alternatives to consider,

Tako da kada ima puno alternativa

it's easy to imagine the attractive features of alternatives that you reject

lako je zamisliti primamljive karakteristike

tih alternativa koje odbijate,

that make you less satisfied with the alternative that you've chosen.

što vas čini manje zadovoljnim nego sa opcijom koju ste izabrali.

Here's an example.

[I can't stop thinking about those other available parking spaces on W 85th Street]

Evo na primer. Ako niste iz Njujorka, izvinjavam se.

If you're not a New Yorker, I apologize.

(Smejanje)

Ali ovo je što biste trebali da mislite.

Here's what you're supposed to be thinking.

Evo romantični par u delu Njujorka koji se zove "Hemptons".©

Here's this couple on the Hamptons. Very expensive real estate.

Vrlo skupe nekretnine.

Gorgeous beach. Beautiful day. They have it all to themselves.

Divan dan. Nema gužve na plaži. Mogu da uživaju sami.

What could be better?

Šta bi moglo biti bolje? Međutim: "Pa, dovraga,"

"Damn it," this guy is thinking,

pomisli čovek, "Avgust je mesec.

"It's August. Everybody in my Manhattan neighborhood is away.

Sve moje komšije iz Manhattana su na letovanju.

I could be parking right in front of my building."

Mogao bih 'ladno da parkiram ispred moje zgrade."

And he spends two weeks nagged by the idea

I tako provede naredne dve nedelje mučen tom mišlju

that he is missing the opportunity, day after day,

da svaki dan propusta priliku da iskoristi odlično mesto za parkiranje.

to have a great parking space.

(Laughter)

Opportunity costs subtract from the satisfaction

"Propuštena dobit"smanjuje zadovoljstvo odluke koju smo izabrali,

that we get out of what we choose,

even when what we choose is terrific.

čak i ako je to što smo izabrali odlično.

And the more options there are to consider,

I što više imamo opcija za izbor,

the more attractive features of these options

i više nam izgledaju primamljive i bolje te opcije,

are going to be reflected by us as opportunity costs.

to će biti veća 'patnja' za tom "propuštenom dobiti".

Here's another example.

Evo još jednog primera.

(Laughter)

Now, this cartoon makes a lot of points.

Ovaj crtić ima dosta smisla.

It makes points about living in the moment as well,

Ima smisla jer govori o tome da treba "živeti u trenutku",

and probably about doing things slowly.

i verovatno o smanjenju brzine života.

But one point it makes is that whenever you're choosing one thing,

A potogovo ima smisla zato što govori o tome da kada čovek izabere da radi jednu stvar,

you're choosing not to do other things,

u isto vreme izabere da ne radi druge stvari.

and those other things may have lots of attractive features,

Te druge stvari su možda jako primamljive,

and it's going to make what you're doing

i to će vam dati osećaj da to što ste vi izabrali je manje primamljivo.♫

less attractive.

Third: escalation of expectations.

Treće je: povećanje očekivanja.

This hit me when I went to replace my jeans.

Ovo mi je postalo jasno kada sam hteo da kupim nove farmerke.

I wear jeans almost all the time.

Skoro svaki dan nosim farmerke.

There was a time when jeans came in one flavor,

Postojalo je nekad vreme kada su pravili samo jednu vrstu farmerki,

and you bought them, and they fit like crap.

i kupio si ih,

They were incredibly uncomfortable,

i bile su jako neudobne,

and if you wore them long enough and washed them enough times,

ali što si ih duže nosio i što više puta prao,

they started to feel OK.

one su počinjale da bivaju udobnije.

I went to replace my jeans after years of wearing these old ones.

Tako da sam nosio moje stare farmerke godinama pre nego što sam otišao da kupim nove,

I said, "I want a pair of jeans. Here's my size."

kada sam otišao u prodavnicu i rekao: "Hteo bih da kupim nove farmerke, evo moja veličina je..",

And the shopkeeper said,

a prodavac mi je rekao,

"Do you want slim fit, easy fit, relaxed fit?

"Da li hoćete zategnuti, opušten ili komotan kroj?

You want button fly or zipper fly? You want stonewashed or acid-washed?

Hoćete cibzar ili dugmad? Hoćete kameno-oprane ili kiselinom-oprane?

Do you want them distressed?

Da li hoćete da izgledaju oštećene?

Do you want boot cut, tapered?" Blah, blah, blah on and on he went.

Hoćete da možete da ih prevučete preko čizama, ili ukrojene, itd. itd..." Nije prestao sa pitanjima.

My jaw dropped.

Kada sam se oporavio od šoka rekao sam,

And after I recovered, I said,

"I want the kind that used to be the only kind."

"Hoću te vrste koje su pre bile jedine."

(Laughter)

(Smejanje)

He had no idea what that was.

On nije imao pojma kakve su te bile,

(Laughter)

tako da sam proveo sat vremena isprobavajući sve te proklete farmerke,

So I spent an hour trying on all these damn jeans,

and I walked out of the store -- truth --

i kada sam završio isprobavanja -- mogu iskreno reći -- da sam izabrao najudobnije farmerke koje sam ikad nosio.

with the best-fitting jeans I had ever had.

I did better.

Tako da mi je ishod bio bolji. Sav taj izbor mi je pružio priliku za bolje farmerke - i iskoristio sam priliku.

All this choice made it possible for me to do better.

But --

Ali osećao sam se lošije.

I felt worse.

Why? I wrote a whole book to try to explain this to myself.

Zašto? Napisao sam celu knjigu u pokušaju da objasnim ovo sebi.

The reason is --

Razlog zašto sam se osećao lošije je,

(Laughter)

The reason I felt worse is that with all of these options available,

sa svim ovim dostupnim opcijama,

my expectations about how good a pair of jeans should be went up.

moja očekivanja o tome kako bi dobro trebale da farmerke budu su bila veća.

I had very low, no particular expectations when they only came in one flavor.

Imao sam vrlo niska očekivanja.

Nisam imao neka posebna očekivanja kada su bile samo jedne vrste.

When they came in 100 flavors, damn it, one of them should've been perfect.

Ali kada ih je bilo 100 drugačijih, dovraga,

jedna vrsta bi trebala da bude savršena.

And what I got was good, but it wasn't perfect.

Kakve sam kupio su bile dobre, ali nisu bile savršene.

And so I compared what I got to what I expected,

Tako da sam uporedio to što sam dobio s tim što sam očekivao da dobijem,

and what I got was disappointing in comparison to what I expected.

i to što sam dobio je bilo razočaravajuće kada sam uporedio s tim što sam očekivao.

Kada čovek ima više izbora u životu,

Adding options to people's lives

can't help but increase the expectations people have

neizbežno je to da će imati veća očekivanja

about how good those options will be.

o tome koliko će biti dobre sve te opcije.

And what that's going to produce is less satisfaction with results,

Šta to znači je da će se čovek osećati manje zadovoljan s tim što izabere,

even when they're good results.

čak i kada je ishod dobar.

[It all looks so great. I can't wait to be disappointed.]

Ljudi koji se bave marketingom ne znaju za ovo.

Nobody in the world of marketing knows this.

Zato što ako bi oni to znali, onda vi ne biste ovo znali.

Because if they did, you wouldn't all know what this was about.

The truth is more like this.

Istina je više ovakva.©

[Everything was better back when everything was worse.]

(Smejanje)

The reason that everything was better back when everything was worse

Razlog zašto sve je bilo bolje kada je bilo gore

is that when everything was worse,

je da kada je sve bilo gore,

it was actually possible for people

bilo je moguće da je čovek mogao da ima iskustvo koje je bilo prijatno iznenađenje.

to have experiences that were a pleasant surprise.

Nowadays, the world we live in -- we affluent, industrialized citizens,

Sada, u današnjem svetu -- mi imućni, industrijalizovani građani,

with perfection the expectation --

sa očekivanjem savršenstva --

the best you can ever hope for

jedino možemo da se nadamo da će ishodi biti toliko dobri koliko očekujemo da će biti.

is that stuff is as good as you expect it to be.

You will never be pleasantly surprised,

Nećete nikad biti prijatno iznenađeni

because your expectations, my expectations,

zato što vaša očekivanja, i moja očekivanja, su značajno povećana.

have gone through the roof.

The secret to happiness -- this is what you all came for --

Tajna srece -- ovo je zašto ste došli --

the secret to happiness is:

tajna sreće je da imate niska očekivanja.

low expectations.

(Laughter)

(Smejanje)

[You'll do]

(Aplauz)

(Applause)

(Laughter)

I want to say --

Hteo bih da kažem -- mali autobiografski trenutak --

just a little autobiographical moment --

that I actually am married to a wife,

da sam oženjen,

and she's really quite wonderful.

i žena mi je baš divna.

I couldn't have done better.

Nisam mogao bolju ženu naći. Nisam se samo opustio i oženio kogagod.

I didn't settle.

But settling isn't always such a bad thing.

Ali nije to uvek loša stvar kada se čovek opusti i samo odluči na najlakšu opciju.

Finally,

Konačno, jedna posledica kupovine neodobnih farmerki

one consequence of buying a bad-fitting pair of jeans

when there is only one kind to buy

je da kada samo postoji ta jedna vrsta farmerki

is that when you are dissatisfied and you ask why, who's responsible,

onda kada je čovek nezadovoljan, i pita sebe 'zašto',

'ko je odgovoran', odgovor je očigledan.

the answer is clear: the world is responsible.

Svet je odgovoran. Koja je bila alternativa?

What could you do?

When there are hundreds of different styles of jeans available

Kada postoji stotina drugačijih vrsta farmerki,

and you buy one that is disappointing

i kupite jedne koje su razočaravajuće,

and you ask why, who's responsible,

i pitate zašto, ko je odgovoran?

it is equally clear that the answer to the question is "you."

Jasno da ste vi odgovorni.

You could have done better.

Mogli ste izabrati bolji par.

With a hundred different kinds of jeans on display,

Kada ima stotina drugačijih vrsta farmerki,

there is no excuse for failure.

nema izgovora za neuspeh.

And so when people make decisions,

Tako da kada ljudi prave odluke,

and even though the results of the decisions are good,

i kada te odluke pruže dobre ishode,

they feel disappointed about them;

osećaju se razočarani s tim odlukama,

they blame themselves.

i osećaju se krivi zbog razočarenja.

Clinical depression has exploded in the industrial world

Klinična depresija je eksplodirala u industrijskim zemljama tokom poslednje generacije.

in the last generation.

I believe a significant -- not the only, but a significant -- contributor

Verujem da značajan -- ne jedini, ali značajan razlog

to this explosion of depression and also suicide,

zbog ove povećane depresije, i zbog samoubistava,

is that people have experiences that are disappointing

je da ljudi ima iskustva koja su razočarajuća

because their standards are so high,

zato što su im očekivanja toliko velika.

and then when they have to explain these experiences to themselves,

Kada onda sebi moraju da objasne ova iskustva,

they think they're at fault.

misle da su sami krivi zato što se loše osećaju.

So the net result is that we do better in general, objectively,

Tako da sve skupa ishod je objektivno bolji, generalno,

and we feel worse.

a ljudi se osećaju lošije.

So let me remind you:

Da vas podsetim.

this is the official dogma, the one that we all take to be true,

Ovo je zvanična dogma, ta koju svi smatramo da je tačna,

and it's all false.

ali je ustvari pogrešna. Nije tačna.

It is not true.

There's no question that some choice is better than none.

Očigledno je da je izvesna količina izbora bolja nego nikakav izbor,

But it doesn't follow from that

ali ta logika ne ide dalje - da je bolje imati čak i više izbora od izvesne količine izbora.

that more choice is better than some choice.

There's some magical amount. I don't know what it is.

Postoji neka čarobna količina. Nisam siguran koja je.

I'm pretty confident that we have long since passed the point

Ali dosta sam siguran da smo već odavno prošli

where options improve our welfare.

tu količinu opcija koja nam poboljšava blagostanje.

Now, as a policy matter -- I'm almost done --

Što se tiče putokaza za budućnost -- skoro sam završio --

as a policy matter, the thing to think about is this:

što se tiče putokaza, moramo ovako da mislimo.♪

what enables all of this choice in industrial societies

Šta omogućava sav ovaj izbor u industrijskim zemljama je materijalno bogatstvo.

is material affluence.

There are lots of places in the world,

Na puno mesta na svetu,

and we have heard about several of them,

i čuli smo o nekoliko njih,

where their problem is not that they have too much choice.

problem nije da imaju previše izbora.

Problem im je da nemaju dovoljno.

Their problem is they have too little.

So the stuff I'm talking about is the peculiar problem

Tako da ovo o čemu pričamo je naročit problem

of modern, affluent, Western societies.

modernih, bogatih, zapadnjačkih zemalja.

And what is so frustrating and infuriating is this:

I šta je posebno frustrirajuće je sledeće:

Steve Levitt talked to you yesterday

Steve Lewitt je govorio juće o tome kako

about how these expensive and difficult-to-install child seats

ta skupa i kabasta dečija sedišta u kolima ne rade. Da je to bacanje para.

don't help.

It's a waste of money.

What I'm telling you is that these expensive, complicated choices --

Šta ja želim da vam kažem je da kod takvih skupih, komplikovanih opcija -

it's not simply that they don't help.

nije da one samo ne funkcionišu i ne pomažu.

They actually hurt.

One čak i nanose štetu.®

They actually make us worse off.

One nam u suštini čine više lošeg nego dobrog.

If some of what enables people in our societies

Kada bi samo deo toga što u bogatim zemljama dozvoljava ljudima mnogo izbora

to make all of the choices we make

were shifted to societies in which people have too few options,

bilo preneseno u zemlje gde ljudi imaju malo izbora

not only would those people's lives be improved,

ne samo da bi život tih ljudi bio poboljšan,

but ours would be improved also.

nego bi i naši životi bili bolji.

This is what economists call a "Pareto-improving move."

To je ono što ekonomisti zovu Pareto Princip

Income redistribution will make everyone better off,

Raspodela bogatstva bi svima bila korisna

not just poor people,

because of how all this excess choice plagues us.

zato što sav taj izbor nikome od nas koji ga imamo nije dobar.

So to conclude.

[You can be anything you want to be -- no limits.]

Znači, da zaključim: Treba da pročitate ovaj crtić:

You're supposed to read this cartoon and, being a sophisticated person, say,

i recimo, podrazumevajući da ste inteligentna osoba, kažete:

"Ah! What does this fish know? Nothing is possible in this fishbowl."

"Ah! Šta zna ta riba?

Znate i sami da nista nije moguće u tom akvarijumu."

Impoverished imagination, a myopic view of the world --

Kakav siromašan pogled na svet!

that's the way I read it at first.

Ali, tako je kako i sam i ja sam shvatio taj crtić u početku.

The more I thought about it, however,

Međutim, što sam više o njemu mislio,

the more I came to the view that this fish knows something.

sve sam više shvatao da ova riba zna nešto.

Because the truth of the matter is,

Zato što je suština, istinski, u tome

if you shatter the fishbowl so that everything is possible,

da ako razbiješ taj akvarijum, i sve postane moguće,

you don't have freedom.

You have paralysis.

tada nemaš slobodu. Imaš paralizu.

If you shatter this fishbowl so that everything is possible,

Ako razbiješ akvarijum tako da sve postane moguće,

you decrease satisfaction.

u stvari smanjiš svoje zadovoljstvo.

You increase paralysis, and you decrease satisfaction.

Povećaš paralizu i smanjiš zadovoljstvo.

Everybody needs a fishbowl.

Svakome treba jedan akvarijum.

This one is almost certainly too limited --

Ovaj ovde je sigurno previše skučen,

perhaps even for the fish, certainly for us.

čak možda i za ovu zlatnu ribicu, ali sigurno za nas.

But the absence of some metaphorical fishbowl is a recipe for misery

Ali nepostojanje ovakvog metaforičnog, zamišljenog akvarijuma, je recept za nezadovoljstvo i bedu,

and, I suspect, disaster.

cak i totalnu nesrecu.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam lepo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)