The paradox of choice | Barry Schwartz | TED

5,863,284 views ・ 2007-01-16

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Translator: Relja Cvjeticanin Reviewer: Sandra Gojic
00:25
I'm going to talk to you about some stuff that's in this book of mine
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Danas ću vam govoriti o nekim stvarima o kojima sam pisao u mojoj knjizi
00:28
that I hope will resonate with other things you've already heard,
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koje će vam, nadam se, potvrditi ono što ste čuli do sada.
00:31
and I'll try to make some connections myself,
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I tokom toga ću pokušati da povezujem neke detalje - za slučaj da ih promašite.
00:33
in case you miss them.
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00:35
But I want to start with what I call the "official dogma."
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Počeću sa nečim što ja zovem "zvanična dogma".
00:39
The official dogma of what?
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"Zvanična dogma" čega?
00:41
The official dogma of all Western industrial societies.
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Zvanična dogma svih zapadnjačkih zemalja.
00:44
And the official dogma runs like this:
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Suština tog verovanja je u sledećem:
00:47
if we are interested in maximizing the welfare of our citizens,
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ako želimo da poboljšamo blagostanje naših državljana,♫
00:51
the way to do that is to maximize individual freedom.
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najbolji način da to postignemo je da savršeno poboljšamo ličnu slobodu.
00:57
The reason for this is both that freedom is, in and of itself, good,
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Razlog je da je sloboda sama po sebi dobra i
01:02
valuable, worthwhile, essential to being human,
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vredna stvar i da je apsolutno potrebna čovečanstvu.
01:05
and because if people have freedom,
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I onda, ako čovek ima slobodu
01:08
then each of us can act on our own
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onda može da se ponaša kako želi
01:10
to do the things that will maximize our welfare,
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i, kao rezultat može da poboljša lično blagostanje,
01:12
and no one has to decide on our behalf.
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jer jedino on lično zna šta mu najbolje odgovara.
01:15
The way to maximize freedom is to maximize choice.
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Dakle osnovni način da postignemo maksimalnu slobodu je da poboljšamo mogućnost izbora.
01:20
The more choice people have, the more freedom they have,
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Što više čovek ima izbora, to više ima slobodu,
01:24
and the more freedom they have,
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i što više ima slobodu,
01:26
the more welfare they have.
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to mu je bolje blagostanje.
01:29
This, I think, is so deeply embedded in the water supply
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Mislim da je ovaj mentalitet toliko usađen u društvenom verovanju na zapadu
01:34
that it wouldn't occur to anyone to question it.
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da nikom ne bi palo na pamet da misli na drugi način.
A isto je tako usađen i u naš način života.
01:38
And it's also deeply embedded in our lives.
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01:42
I'll give you some examples
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Evo jednog primera kako je moderan napredak pomogao društvu:
01:44
of what modern progress has made possible for us.
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01:48
This is my supermarket.
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Ovo je moja lokalna samoposluga. Nije ni tako velika.
01:49
Not such a big one.
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01:51
I want to say just a word about salad dressing.
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Želeo bih da kažem nešto o prelivima za salatu.
01:54
A hundred seventy-five salad dressings in my supermarket,
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Prodaju 175 drugačijih preliva za salatu u ovoj samoposluzi
01:57
if you don't count the 10 extra-virgin olive oils
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i 10 vrsta najkvalitetnijih maslinovih ulja
02:00
and 12 balsamic vinegars you could buy
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i 12 vrsta sirćeta
02:03
to make a very large number of your own salad dressings,
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tako da možeš napraviti ogromni broj varijanti preliva za salatu
02:06
in the off-chance that none of the 175 the store has on offer suit you.
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za slučaj da vam nijedan od tih 175 gotovih preliva ne odgovara.
02:11
So this is what the supermarket is like.
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Tako je u modernoj samoposluzi.
02:13
And then you go to the consumer electronics store
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I onda ako hoćete da kupite muzički uređaj i odete u radnju za elektroniku --
02:15
to set up a stereo system --
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02:17
speakers, CD player, tape player, tuner, amplifier --
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naći ćete sve od zvučnika do plejera za CD-ove i kasete, stimera i pojačalo.
02:21
and in this one single consumer electronics store,
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Ovo je samo jedna radnja za elektroniku,
02:25
there are that many stereo systems.
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a postoji puno varijacija za muzičke uređaje.
02:28
We can construct six and a half million different stereo systems
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Može čovek da sastavi šest i po' milliona drugačijih muzičkih uređaja
02:33
out of the components that are on offer in one store.
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od tih delova koji se prodaju u samo jednoj radnji.
02:36
You've got to admit that's a lot of choice.
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Morate priznati da postoji jako puno izbora za muzičke uređaje.
02:39
In other domains -- the world of communications.
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U drugim oblastima -- komunikacije na primer.
02:43
There was a time, when I was a boy,
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Kada sam ja bio dečak,
02:45
when you could get any kind of telephone service you wanted,
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čovek je mogao da dobije kakvu god telefonsku uslugu je želeo,
02:48
as long as it came from Ma Bell.
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jedino ako je dolazila od Ma Bell-a.
02:49
You rented your phone, you didn't buy it.
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Čovek je zakupio telefon - nije ga kupio.
02:52
One consequence of that, by the way, is that the phone never broke.
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A kao rezultat te zakupnine, telefon je uvek radio kako treba.
02:55
And those days are gone.
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Takvog servisa više nema.
02:58
We now have an almost unlimited variety of phones,
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Sada imamo skoro neograničenu varijantu telefona,
03:01
especially in the world of cell phones.
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a pogotovo što se tiče tržišta mobilnih telefona.
03:03
These are cell phones of the future.
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Ovo su mobilni telefoni budućnosti.
03:06
My favorite is the middle one --
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Moj omiljeni je onaj u sredini --
03:08
the MP3 player, nose hair trimmer, and crème brûlée torch.
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koji služi kao MP3 plejer, trimer za dlake u nosu i baklja za creme brulee.
03:11
And if --
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I za slučaj da ga niste videli u prodavnici do sada,
03:13
(Laughter)
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03:14
if by some chance you haven't seen that in your store yet,
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03:17
you can rest assured that one day soon, you will.
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možete biti sigurni da ćete uskoro moći.
03:20
And what this does is it leads people to walk into their stores,
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I šta ovo postigne je
da ljudi onda odu u prodavnicu sami sebi postavljavljajući to pitanje.
03:24
asking this question.
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03:25
And do you know what the answer to this question now is?
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A naravno ogdovor za to pitanje je
03:28
The answer is "no."
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"Ne".
03:30
It is not possible to buy a cell phone that doesn't do too much.
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Čovek jednostavno ne može više da kupi običan mobilini telefon.
03:33
So, in other aspects of life that are much more significant than buying things,
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Znači, u drugim oblastima života, koji su mnogo značajniji nego materijalna potrošnja,
03:39
the same explosion of choice is true.
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postoji slično polje izbora.
03:42
Health care.
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Na primer u medicini -- više nije moguće u SAD
03:44
It is no longer the case in the United States
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03:46
that you go to the doctor, and the doctor tells you what to do.
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da odete kod doktora i doktor vam kaže kako ćete se najbolje izlečiti.
03:50
Instead, you go to the doctor,
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Umesto toga, odete kod doktora,
03:52
and the doctor tells you, "Well, we could do A, or we could do B.
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i doktor vam kaže "pa mogli biste izabrati opciju A ili opciju B.
03:55
A has these benefits and these risks.
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A vam može pomoći ovako, ali ima ove rizike.
03:57
B has these benefits and these risks.
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B vam može pomoći onako, sa onim rizicima. Šta vi želite da uradite?"
04:00
What do you want to do?"
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04:02
And you say, "Doc, what should I do?"
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I onda vi kažete "Doktore šta vi mislite da bi bila najbolja opcija?"
04:04
And the doc says, "A has these benefits and risks,
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i doktor vam kaže "Pa opcija A vam može ovako pomoći sa ovim rizicima, i B vam može pomoći onako sa onim rizicima.
04:07
and B has these benefits and risks.
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04:09
What do you want to do?"
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Šta vi želite da uradite?"
04:11
And you say, "If you were me, Doc, what would you do?"
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A vi kažete "doktore, da ste vi u mojoj poziciji šta bi ste odlučili?"
04:15
And the doc says, "But I'm not you."
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i doktor vam kaže "Ali nisam u vašoj poziciji, jedino vi možete odlučiti sami za sebe."
04:18
And the result is -- we call it "patient autonomy,"
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I rezultat toga je nešto što se zove "pacijentska autonomija",
04:21
which makes it sound like a good thing,
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i to naravno zvuči kao dobra stvar.
04:23
but what it really is is a shifting of the burden and the responsibility
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Ali ustvari samo promeni situaciju tako da odgovornost
nije više sa osobom koja zna nešto -
04:27
for decision-making
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04:28
from somebody who knows something -- namely, the doctor --
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naime sa doktorom -
nego je sa osobom koja ne zna toliko i boluje
04:31
to somebody who knows nothing and is almost certainly sick
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04:33
and thus, not in the best shape to be making decisions --
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i dakle nije u najboljem stanju da napravi odluke -
04:36
namely, the patient.
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naime, pacijentom.
04:37
There's enormous marketing of prescription drugs
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Količina reklama za lekove na recept koji su usmereni za
04:40
to people like you and me,
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generalnu populaciju je ogromna.
04:42
which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all,
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A to nema nekog smisla
04:44
since we can't buy them.
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zato što ih ne možemo kupiti.
04:45
Why do they market to us if we can't buy them?
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Zašto je taj marketing usmeren za ljude koji ih ne mogu kupiti?
04:48
The answer is that they expect us to call our doctors the next morning
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Zato što čim čovek čuje reklamu najverovatnije će nazvati doktora
04:52
and ask for our prescriptions to be changed.
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i pitaće ga da mu promeni recept.
04:55
Something as dramatic as our identity
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Čak i nešto kao čovekov identitet
04:59
has now become a matter of choice,
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je sada stvar izbora,
05:02
as this slide is meant to indicate.
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kao što možete videti ovde.
05:05
We don't inherit an identity; we get to invent it.
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Čovek više ne nasledi identitet, nego ga može izmisliti.
05:08
And we get to reinvent ourselves as often as we like.
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Može da promeni sam sebe koliko god puta želi.
05:12
And that means that every day, when you wake up in the morning,
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Znači da svako jutro kada se čovek probudi,
mora da izabere kakvu ličnost, kakav identitet, želi da ima.
05:15
you have to decide what kind of person you want to be.
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05:18
With respect to marriage and family:
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Što se tiče braka i porodice,
05:22
there was a time when the default assumption that almost everyone had
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nekad je postojalo vreme kada se predpostavljalo da
05:27
is that you got married as soon as you could,
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se čovek venčao čim je mogao,
05:29
and then you started having kids as soon as you could.
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i da je počeo da ima decu čim je mogao.
Jedino je čovek izabrao s kim će se venčati,
05:32
The only real choice was who,
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05:34
not when, and not what you did after.
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ne kada će se venčati i što se tiče dece - čovek ih je imao bez da misli previše.
05:38
Nowadays, everything is very much up for grabs.
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U današnje vreme sve je stvar izbora.
05:41
I teach wonderfully intelligent students,
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Ja predajem vrlo inteligentnim studentima,
05:43
and I assign 20 percent less work than I used to.
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i dam im 20 posto manje zadataka nego što sam pre davao.
05:47
And it's not because they're less smart,
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Naravno razlog nije zato što nisu inteligentni,
05:50
and it's not because they're less diligent.
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i nije zato što su lenji.
05:52
It's because they are preoccupied, asking themselves,
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Nego je zato što su zaokupljeni pitanjima života:
05:55
"Should I get married or not? Should I get married now?
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"Da li treba da se venčam? Kada bih trebao da se venčam - odmah ili
05:58
Should I get married later?
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za nekoliko godina? Kako da izaberem između dece i karijere?"
05:59
Should I have kids first or a career first?"
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06:02
All of these are consuming questions.
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Ta pitanja su dosta zbunjujuća, a
06:05
And they're going to answer these questions,
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studenti će naći odgovore za ta pitanja,
06:07
whether or not it means not doing all the work I assign
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čak i ako to znači da ne završe sav rad koji sam im zadao
06:09
and not getting a good grade in my courses.
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i takođe ako dobiju lošije ocene zato što nisu skoncentrisani.
06:11
And indeed they should.
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A naravno ta pitanja jesu bitna.
06:13
These are important questions to answer.
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06:16
Work.
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Današnja tehnologija - kao što je Karl rekao ranije -
06:18
We are blessed, as Carl was pointing out,
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06:20
with the technology that enables us to work every minute of every day
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daje ljudima priliku da mogu da rade u koje god doba dana,
i odakle god da su na svetu -
06:26
from any place on the planet --
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06:28
except the Randolph Hotel.
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osim hotela 'Randolph'.
06:30
(Laughter)
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(Smejanje)
06:33
(Applause)
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06:35
There is one corner, by the way,
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Ustvari postoji jedan ćošak u hotelu,
06:38
that I'm not going to tell anybody about, where the WiFi actually works.
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gde radi bežični internet - ali neću vam reći gde je taj ćošak
06:42
I'm not telling you about it, because I want to use it.
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zato što ja hoću da ga koristim bez gužve.
06:45
So what this means,
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Šta to ustvari znači, ova neverovatna sloboda izbora koju imamo
06:46
this incredible freedom of choice we have with respect to work,
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u vezi posla, znači da moramo da napravimo odluku
06:49
is that we have to make a decision,
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06:51
again and again and again,
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nekoliko puta uzastopce,
06:53
about whether we should or shouldn't be working.
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o tome da li i kada bi trebali da radimo.
06:56
We can go to watch our kid play soccer,
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Može čovek odlučiti da ode i da gleda njegovo dete na fudbalskom terenu,
06:58
and we have our cell phone on one hip and our Blackberry on our other hip,
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i da ponese mobilni telefon,
Blackberry i laptop kompjuter
07:02
and our laptop, presumably, on our laps.
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sa sobom.
07:05
And even if they're all shut off,
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Ali, čak ako su svi ti aparati isključeni,
07:07
every minute that we're watching our kid mutilate a soccer game,
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dok čovek gleda utakmicu,
07:10
we are also asking ourselves,
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konstantno se pita,
07:12
"Should I answer this cell phone call?
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"Da ogdovorim na telefon?
07:14
Should I respond to this email? Should I draft this letter?"
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Da odgovorim na ovaj e-mejl? Da napišem ovo pismo?"
07:17
And even if the answer to the question is "no,"
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Čak ako i strogo odgovori na ova pitanja sa "ne",
07:20
it's certainly going to make the experience of your kid's soccer game
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samo to što ima izbor da radi umesto da gleda utakmicu
07:23
very different than it would've been.
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znači da će mu iskustvo utakmice biti potpuno drugačije.
07:25
So everywhere we look,
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U svakom smislu,
07:27
big things and small things, material things and lifestyle things,
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i u nebitnim i u relativno važnijim situacijama,
07:31
life is a matter of choice.
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sve je stvar izbora.
07:34
And the world we used to live in looked like this.
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Pre nekoliko godina, svet je izgledao ovako.
07:38
[Well, actually, they are written in stone.]
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07:40
That is to say, there were some choices,
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Znači, bilo je izvesnog nivoa izbora,
07:42
but not everything was a matter of choice.
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ali nije sve bilo stvar izbora.
07:44
The world we now live in looks like this.
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Trenutno, svet nam izgleda kao što smo već rekli.
07:46
[The Ten Commandments Do-It-Yourself Kit]
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Sada je pitanje je da li je ovo dobra ili loša vest?
07:48
And the question is: Is this good news or bad news?
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07:53
And the answer is "yes."
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Odgovor je 'da'.
07:56
(Laughter)
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(Smejanje)
07:58
We all know what's good about it,
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Svi znamo šta je dobro sa ovim novim izborima u životu,
08:00
so I'm going to talk about what's bad about it.
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tako da ću se skoncentrisati na lošije strane ove, sadašnje, situacije.
08:03
All of this choice has two effects,
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Sav ovaj izbor ima dva efekta,
08:06
two negative effects on people.
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dva negativna efekta na ljude.
08:09
One effect, paradoxically,
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Jedan efekat, paradoksalno,
08:11
is that it produces paralysis rather than liberation.
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je da ljudi u suštini imaju više paralizovan, umesto slobodnog načina života.
08:15
With so many options to choose from,
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Sa toliko puno opcija,
08:18
people find it very difficult to choose at all.
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čoveku je teško da napravi bilo kakvu odluku.
08:22
I'll give you one very dramatic example of this,
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Daću vam jedan vrlo dramatičan primer ovoga,
08:25
a study that was done of investments in voluntary retirement plans.
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gde je istraživanje bilo urađeno na dobrovoljnim penzijskim fondovima.
08:31
A colleague of mine got access to investment records from Vanguard,
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Moja koleginica je dobila pristup izveštaju financijskih ulaganja 'Vanguard'-a,
08:36
the gigantic mutual fund company,
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ogromne kompanije koja se bavi sa penzijskim fondovima
08:38
of about a million employees and about 2,000 different workplaces.
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i koja ima otprilike milion radnika i oko dve hiljade kancelarija.
08:42
What she found is that for every 10 mutual funds the employer offered,
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Šta je ovo istraživanje pokazalo je da
za svakih 10 uzajamnih fondova koje je poslodavac ponudio,
08:47
rate of participation went down two percent.
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stopa učešća je pala za dva odsto.
08:52
You offer 50 funds -- 10 percent fewer employees participate
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Znači, ako ponude 50 fondova -- 10 odsto manje radnika učestvuje
08:56
than if you only offer five.
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nego kada ponude pet fondova. Zašto?
08:59
Why?
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09:00
Because with 50 funds to choose from,
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Zato što od 50 fondova,
09:02
it's so damn hard to decide which fund to choose,
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teško je odlučiti koji fond da odaberu, tako da odlože
09:06
that you'll just put it off till tomorrow,
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odluku do sutra,
09:08
and then tomorrow
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i onda sutra opet odlože do sutra, itd.
09:09
and then tomorrow and tomorrow,
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itd.
09:11
and, of course, tomorrow never comes.
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A naravno to konstantno odlaganje znači da im treba mnogo više vremena da odluče u koji fond će uložiti pare.
09:13
Understand that not only does this mean
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Ovo takođe ne samo da znači da će
09:15
that people are going to have to eat dog food when they retire
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ovi radnici morati jesti čak i kereću hranu kada odu u penziju
09:18
because they don't have enough money put away,
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zato što nemaju dovoljno ušteđenih para, nego
09:20
it also means that making the decision is so hard
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znači da zato što je ta odluka uzela toliko vremena,
09:23
that they pass up significant matching money from the employer.
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oni će takođe da propuste značajan dodatak u fond koji posladavac nudi tokom vremena tokom kojeg su oni 'odlučivali'.
09:27
By not participating, they are passing up as much as 5,000 dollars a year
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Time što ne učestvuju oni propuste do 5.000 dolara godišnje
09:31
from the employer,
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od posladavca, koji bi rado zadovoljio njihov doprinos u fond.
09:32
who would happily match their contribution.
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09:35
So paralysis is a consequence of having too many choices.
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Tako da je određena paraliza posledica previše izbora,
09:38
And I think it makes the world look like this.
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i mislim da sav taj izbor znači da nam svet izgleda ovako.
09:41
[And lastly, for all eternity, French, bleu cheese or ranch?]
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(Smejanje)
09:45
(Laughter)
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09:48
You really want to get the decision right if it's for all eternity, right?
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Sigurno hoćete da napravite dobru odluku ako će ona biti za sva vremena, jel tako?
09:52
You don't want to pick the wrong mutual fund or wrong salad dressing.
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Nećete da izaberete pogrešni fond, ili pogrešan preliv za salatu.
09:55
So that's one effect.
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Dakle to je jedan efekat. Drugi efekat je da
09:56
The second effect is that, even if we manage to overcome the paralysis
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čak i ako možemo da prevaziđemo tu paralizu i napravimo odluku,♪
10:01
and make a choice,
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10:03
we end up less satisfied with the result of the choice
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nekako dođemo u situaciju da smo manje zadovoljni sa odlukom
10:07
than we would be if we had fewer options to choose from.
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nego što bi bili da imamo manje opcija.
10:10
And there are several reasons for this.
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Ima nekoliko razloga za ovo.
10:13
One of them is, with a lot of different salad dressings to choose from,
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Jedan razlog je da sa puno izbora za preliv za salatu,
10:17
if you buy one and it's not perfect -- and what salad dressing is? --
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ako kupite jednu vrstu, i nije perfektan -- onda se počnete pitati koji preliv za salatu jeste idealan?
10:20
it's easy to imagine that you could've made a different choice
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Lako je zamisliti situaciju gde ste izabrali drugačiju vrstu
10:23
that would've been better.
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koja bi bila bolja. Šta se desi je
10:25
And what happens is,
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10:27
this imagined alternative induces you to regret the decision you made,
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da vas ova zamišljena alternativa tera da zažalite zbog odluke koju ste napravili,
10:32
and this regret subtracts from the satisfaction you get
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i ovo žaljenje vam smanji zadovoljstvo koje ste dobili sa tom originalnom odlukom,
10:35
out of the decision you made,
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10:36
even if it was a good decision.
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pa čak i ako je to bila dobra odluka.
10:38
The more options there are, the easier it is to regret anything at all
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Što ima više opcija to znači da je lakše da se zažali ista što
10:42
that is disappointing about the option that you chose.
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je i malo razočaravajuće u toj opciji koju ste izabrali.
10:45
Second, what economists call "opportunity costs."
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A drugo je, kako bi rekli ekonomisti "propuštena dobit".
10:48
Dan Gilbert made a big point this morning
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Dan Gilbert je jutros istakao da
10:50
of talking about how much the way in which we value things
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koliko nam nešto vredi
10:55
depends on what we compare them to.
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zavisi o tome sa čim možemo da uporedimo tu stvar.
10:57
Well, when there are lots of alternatives to consider,
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Tako da kada ima puno alternativa
11:01
it's easy to imagine the attractive features of alternatives that you reject
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lako je zamisliti primamljive karakteristike
tih alternativa koje odbijate,
11:07
that make you less satisfied with the alternative that you've chosen.
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što vas čini manje zadovoljnim nego sa opcijom koju ste izabrali.
11:11
Here's an example.
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11:12
[I can't stop thinking about those other available parking spaces on W 85th Street]
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Evo na primer. Ako niste iz Njujorka, izvinjavam se.
11:16
If you're not a New Yorker, I apologize.
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(Smejanje)
Ali ovo je što biste trebali da mislite.
11:18
Here's what you're supposed to be thinking.
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Evo romantični par u delu Njujorka koji se zove "Hemptons".©
11:20
Here's this couple on the Hamptons. Very expensive real estate.
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Vrlo skupe nekretnine.
11:23
Gorgeous beach. Beautiful day. They have it all to themselves.
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Divan dan. Nema gužve na plaži. Mogu da uživaju sami.
11:26
What could be better?
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Šta bi moglo biti bolje? Međutim: "Pa, dovraga,"
11:28
"Damn it," this guy is thinking,
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pomisli čovek, "Avgust je mesec.
11:29
"It's August. Everybody in my Manhattan neighborhood is away.
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Sve moje komšije iz Manhattana su na letovanju.
11:33
I could be parking right in front of my building."
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Mogao bih 'ladno da parkiram ispred moje zgrade."
11:37
And he spends two weeks nagged by the idea
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I tako provede naredne dve nedelje mučen tom mišlju
11:41
that he is missing the opportunity, day after day,
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da svaki dan propusta priliku da iskoristi odlično mesto za parkiranje.
11:44
to have a great parking space.
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11:46
(Laughter)
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11:48
Opportunity costs subtract from the satisfaction
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"Propuštena dobit"smanjuje zadovoljstvo odluke koju smo izabrali,
11:51
that we get out of what we choose,
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11:52
even when what we choose is terrific.
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čak i ako je to što smo izabrali odlično.
11:55
And the more options there are to consider,
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I što više imamo opcija za izbor,
11:57
the more attractive features of these options
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i više nam izgledaju primamljive i bolje te opcije,
11:59
are going to be reflected by us as opportunity costs.
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to će biti veća 'patnja' za tom "propuštenom dobiti".
12:03
Here's another example.
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Evo još jednog primera.
12:05
(Laughter)
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12:08
Now, this cartoon makes a lot of points.
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Ovaj crtić ima dosta smisla.
12:11
It makes points about living in the moment as well,
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Ima smisla jer govori o tome da treba "živeti u trenutku",
12:14
and probably about doing things slowly.
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i verovatno o smanjenju brzine života.
12:16
But one point it makes is that whenever you're choosing one thing,
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A potogovo ima smisla zato što govori o tome da kada čovek izabere da radi jednu stvar,
12:19
you're choosing not to do other things,
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u isto vreme izabere da ne radi druge stvari.
12:21
and those other things may have lots of attractive features,
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Te druge stvari su možda jako primamljive,
12:24
and it's going to make what you're doing
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i to će vam dati osećaj da to što ste vi izabrali je manje primamljivo.♫
12:26
less attractive.
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12:27
Third: escalation of expectations.
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Treće je: povećanje očekivanja.
12:29
This hit me when I went to replace my jeans.
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Ovo mi je postalo jasno kada sam hteo da kupim nove farmerke.
12:32
I wear jeans almost all the time.
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Skoro svaki dan nosim farmerke.
12:34
There was a time when jeans came in one flavor,
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Postojalo je nekad vreme kada su pravili samo jednu vrstu farmerki,
12:37
and you bought them, and they fit like crap.
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i kupio si ih,
12:39
They were incredibly uncomfortable,
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i bile su jako neudobne,
12:40
and if you wore them long enough and washed them enough times,
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ali što si ih duže nosio i što više puta prao,
12:43
they started to feel OK.
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one su počinjale da bivaju udobnije.
12:45
I went to replace my jeans after years of wearing these old ones.
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Tako da sam nosio moje stare farmerke godinama pre nego što sam otišao da kupim nove,
12:48
I said, "I want a pair of jeans. Here's my size."
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kada sam otišao u prodavnicu i rekao: "Hteo bih da kupim nove farmerke, evo moja veličina je..",
12:51
And the shopkeeper said,
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a prodavac mi je rekao,
12:52
"Do you want slim fit, easy fit, relaxed fit?
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"Da li hoćete zategnuti, opušten ili komotan kroj?
12:55
You want button fly or zipper fly? You want stonewashed or acid-washed?
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Hoćete cibzar ili dugmad? Hoćete kameno-oprane ili kiselinom-oprane?
12:58
Do you want them distressed?
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Da li hoćete da izgledaju oštećene?
12:59
Do you want boot cut, tapered?" Blah, blah, blah on and on he went.
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Hoćete da možete da ih prevučete preko čizama, ili ukrojene, itd. itd..." Nije prestao sa pitanjima.
13:03
My jaw dropped.
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Kada sam se oporavio od šoka rekao sam,
13:04
And after I recovered, I said,
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13:06
"I want the kind that used to be the only kind."
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"Hoću te vrste koje su pre bile jedine."
13:09
(Laughter)
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(Smejanje)
13:14
He had no idea what that was.
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On nije imao pojma kakve su te bile,
13:16
(Laughter)
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tako da sam proveo sat vremena isprobavajući sve te proklete farmerke,
13:17
So I spent an hour trying on all these damn jeans,
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13:20
and I walked out of the store -- truth --
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i kada sam završio isprobavanja -- mogu iskreno reći -- da sam izabrao najudobnije farmerke koje sam ikad nosio.
13:22
with the best-fitting jeans I had ever had.
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13:24
I did better.
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Tako da mi je ishod bio bolji. Sav taj izbor mi je pružio priliku za bolje farmerke - i iskoristio sam priliku.
13:26
All this choice made it possible for me to do better.
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13:29
But --
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Ali osećao sam se lošije.
13:31
I felt worse.
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13:33
Why? I wrote a whole book to try to explain this to myself.
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Zašto? Napisao sam celu knjigu u pokušaju da objasnim ovo sebi.
13:37
The reason is --
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Razlog zašto sam se osećao lošije je,
13:38
(Laughter)
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13:42
The reason I felt worse is that with all of these options available,
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sa svim ovim dostupnim opcijama,
13:47
my expectations about how good a pair of jeans should be went up.
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moja očekivanja o tome kako bi dobro trebale da farmerke budu su bila veća.
13:54
I had very low, no particular expectations when they only came in one flavor.
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Imao sam vrlo niska očekivanja.
Nisam imao neka posebna očekivanja kada su bile samo jedne vrste.
13:58
When they came in 100 flavors, damn it, one of them should've been perfect.
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Ali kada ih je bilo 100 drugačijih, dovraga,
jedna vrsta bi trebala da bude savršena.
14:02
And what I got was good, but it wasn't perfect.
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Kakve sam kupio su bile dobre, ali nisu bile savršene.
14:04
And so I compared what I got to what I expected,
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Tako da sam uporedio to što sam dobio s tim što sam očekivao da dobijem,
14:07
and what I got was disappointing in comparison to what I expected.
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i to što sam dobio je bilo razočaravajuće kada sam uporedio s tim što sam očekivao.
Kada čovek ima više izbora u životu,
14:11
Adding options to people's lives
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14:13
can't help but increase the expectations people have
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neizbežno je to da će imati veća očekivanja
14:16
about how good those options will be.
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o tome koliko će biti dobre sve te opcije.
14:19
And what that's going to produce is less satisfaction with results,
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Šta to znači je da će se čovek osećati manje zadovoljan s tim što izabere,
14:22
even when they're good results.
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čak i kada je ishod dobar.
14:24
[It all looks so great. I can't wait to be disappointed.]
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Ljudi koji se bave marketingom ne znaju za ovo.
14:26
Nobody in the world of marketing knows this.
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Zato što ako bi oni to znali, onda vi ne biste ovo znali.
14:29
Because if they did, you wouldn't all know what this was about.
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14:33
The truth is more like this.
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Istina je više ovakva.©
14:36
[Everything was better back when everything was worse.]
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(Smejanje)
14:39
The reason that everything was better back when everything was worse
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Razlog zašto sve je bilo bolje kada je bilo gore
14:43
is that when everything was worse,
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je da kada je sve bilo gore,
14:45
it was actually possible for people
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bilo je moguće da je čovek mogao da ima iskustvo koje je bilo prijatno iznenađenje.
14:47
to have experiences that were a pleasant surprise.
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14:50
Nowadays, the world we live in -- we affluent, industrialized citizens,
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Sada, u današnjem svetu -- mi imućni, industrijalizovani građani,
14:55
with perfection the expectation --
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sa očekivanjem savršenstva --
14:57
the best you can ever hope for
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jedino možemo da se nadamo da će ishodi biti toliko dobri koliko očekujemo da će biti.
14:59
is that stuff is as good as you expect it to be.
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15:01
You will never be pleasantly surprised,
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Nećete nikad biti prijatno iznenađeni
15:03
because your expectations, my expectations,
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zato što vaša očekivanja, i moja očekivanja, su značajno povećana.
15:05
have gone through the roof.
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1334
15:07
The secret to happiness -- this is what you all came for --
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Tajna srece -- ovo je zašto ste došli --
15:10
the secret to happiness is:
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tajna sreće je da imate niska očekivanja.
15:13
low expectations.
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15:15
(Laughter)
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(Smejanje)
15:18
[You'll do]
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(Aplauz)
15:19
(Applause)
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15:21
(Laughter)
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15:24
I want to say --
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Hteo bih da kažem -- mali autobiografski trenutak --
15:25
just a little autobiographical moment --
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15:28
that I actually am married to a wife,
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2990
da sam oženjen,
15:31
and she's really quite wonderful.
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i žena mi je baš divna.
15:33
I couldn't have done better.
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Nisam mogao bolju ženu naći. Nisam se samo opustio i oženio kogagod.
15:34
I didn't settle.
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15:36
But settling isn't always such a bad thing.
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Ali nije to uvek loša stvar kada se čovek opusti i samo odluči na najlakšu opciju.
15:39
Finally,
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Konačno, jedna posledica kupovine neodobnih farmerki
15:41
one consequence of buying a bad-fitting pair of jeans
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15:44
when there is only one kind to buy
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je da kada samo postoji ta jedna vrsta farmerki
15:46
is that when you are dissatisfied and you ask why, who's responsible,
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onda kada je čovek nezadovoljan, i pita sebe 'zašto',
'ko je odgovoran', odgovor je očigledan.
15:50
the answer is clear: the world is responsible.
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Svet je odgovoran. Koja je bila alternativa?
15:52
What could you do?
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15:54
When there are hundreds of different styles of jeans available
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2998
Kada postoji stotina drugačijih vrsta farmerki,
15:57
and you buy one that is disappointing
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2216
i kupite jedne koje su razočaravajuće,
15:59
and you ask why, who's responsible,
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i pitate zašto, ko je odgovoran?
16:02
it is equally clear that the answer to the question is "you."
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Jasno da ste vi odgovorni.
16:07
You could have done better.
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Mogli ste izabrati bolji par.
16:08
With a hundred different kinds of jeans on display,
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Kada ima stotina drugačijih vrsta farmerki,
16:12
there is no excuse for failure.
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nema izgovora za neuspeh.
16:14
And so when people make decisions,
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Tako da kada ljudi prave odluke,
16:16
and even though the results of the decisions are good,
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i kada te odluke pruže dobre ishode,
16:19
they feel disappointed about them;
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osećaju se razočarani s tim odlukama,
16:21
they blame themselves.
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1977
i osećaju se krivi zbog razočarenja.
16:23
Clinical depression has exploded in the industrial world
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Klinična depresija je eksplodirala u industrijskim zemljama tokom poslednje generacije.
16:26
in the last generation.
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16:28
I believe a significant -- not the only, but a significant -- contributor
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Verujem da značajan -- ne jedini, ali značajan razlog
16:32
to this explosion of depression and also suicide,
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zbog ove povećane depresije, i zbog samoubistava,
16:35
is that people have experiences that are disappointing
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je da ljudi ima iskustva koja su razočarajuća
16:38
because their standards are so high,
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1738
zato što su im očekivanja toliko velika.
16:39
and then when they have to explain these experiences to themselves,
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Kada onda sebi moraju da objasne ova iskustva,
16:43
they think they're at fault.
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misle da su sami krivi zato što se loše osećaju.
16:45
So the net result is that we do better in general, objectively,
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Tako da sve skupa ishod je objektivno bolji, generalno,
16:49
and we feel worse.
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a ljudi se osećaju lošije.
16:51
So let me remind you:
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Da vas podsetim.
16:54
this is the official dogma, the one that we all take to be true,
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4614
Ovo je zvanična dogma, ta koju svi smatramo da je tačna,
16:59
and it's all false.
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1965
ali je ustvari pogrešna. Nije tačna.
17:01
It is not true.
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1239
17:03
There's no question that some choice is better than none.
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Očigledno je da je izvesna količina izbora bolja nego nikakav izbor,
17:07
But it doesn't follow from that
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2047
ali ta logika ne ide dalje - da je bolje imati čak i više izbora od izvesne količine izbora.
17:09
that more choice is better than some choice.
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2447
17:12
There's some magical amount. I don't know what it is.
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2538
Postoji neka čarobna količina. Nisam siguran koja je.
17:14
I'm pretty confident that we have long since passed the point
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3027
Ali dosta sam siguran da smo već odavno prošli
17:17
where options improve our welfare.
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2365
tu količinu opcija koja nam poboljšava blagostanje.
17:20
Now, as a policy matter -- I'm almost done --
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2957
Što se tiče putokaza za budućnost -- skoro sam završio --
17:23
as a policy matter, the thing to think about is this:
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što se tiče putokaza, moramo ovako da mislimo.♪
17:26
what enables all of this choice in industrial societies
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Šta omogućava sav ovaj izbor u industrijskim zemljama je materijalno bogatstvo.
17:31
is material affluence.
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2094
17:34
There are lots of places in the world,
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1826
Na puno mesta na svetu,
17:36
and we have heard about several of them,
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1975
i čuli smo o nekoliko njih,
17:38
where their problem is not that they have too much choice.
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problem nije da imaju previše izbora.
Problem im je da nemaju dovoljno.
17:41
Their problem is they have too little.
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1889
17:42
So the stuff I'm talking about is the peculiar problem
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Tako da ovo o čemu pričamo je naročit problem
17:46
of modern, affluent, Western societies.
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3065
modernih, bogatih, zapadnjačkih zemalja.
17:49
And what is so frustrating and infuriating is this:
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3225
I šta je posebno frustrirajuće je sledeće:
17:52
Steve Levitt talked to you yesterday
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1797
Steve Lewitt je govorio juće o tome kako
17:54
about how these expensive and difficult-to-install child seats
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6894
ta skupa i kabasta dečija sedišta u kolima ne rade. Da je to bacanje para.
18:01
don't help.
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1698
18:04
It's a waste of money.
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1605
18:05
What I'm telling you is that these expensive, complicated choices --
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Šta ja želim da vam kažem je da kod takvih skupih, komplikovanih opcija -
18:10
it's not simply that they don't help.
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1858
nije da one samo ne funkcionišu i ne pomažu.
18:12
They actually hurt.
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One čak i nanose štetu.®
18:14
They actually make us worse off.
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2557
One nam u suštini čine više lošeg nego dobrog.
18:16
If some of what enables people in our societies
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3751
Kada bi samo deo toga što u bogatim zemljama dozvoljava ljudima mnogo izbora
18:20
to make all of the choices we make
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1999
18:22
were shifted to societies in which people have too few options,
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4704
bilo preneseno u zemlje gde ljudi imaju malo izbora
18:27
not only would those people's lives be improved,
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2331
ne samo da bi život tih ljudi bio poboljšan,
18:29
but ours would be improved also.
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2125
nego bi i naši životi bili bolji.
18:31
This is what economists call a "Pareto-improving move."
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3319
To je ono što ekonomisti zovu Pareto Princip
18:35
Income redistribution will make everyone better off,
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3412
Raspodela bogatstva bi svima bila korisna
18:38
not just poor people,
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1412
18:40
because of how all this excess choice plagues us.
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zato što sav taj izbor nikome od nas koji ga imamo nije dobar.
18:43
So to conclude.
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1157
18:44
[You can be anything you want to be -- no limits.]
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2364
Znači, da zaključim: Treba da pročitate ovaj crtić:
18:47
You're supposed to read this cartoon and, being a sophisticated person, say,
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i recimo, podrazumevajući da ste inteligentna osoba, kažete:
18:50
"Ah! What does this fish know? Nothing is possible in this fishbowl."
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4389
"Ah! Šta zna ta riba?
Znate i sami da nista nije moguće u tom akvarijumu."
18:55
Impoverished imagination, a myopic view of the world --
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2854
Kakav siromašan pogled na svet!
18:58
that's the way I read it at first.
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1680
Ali, tako je kako i sam i ja sam shvatio taj crtić u početku.
19:00
The more I thought about it, however,
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1818
Međutim, što sam više o njemu mislio,
19:02
the more I came to the view that this fish knows something.
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3799
sve sam više shvatao da ova riba zna nešto.
19:06
Because the truth of the matter is,
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2212
Zato što je suština, istinski, u tome
19:08
if you shatter the fishbowl so that everything is possible,
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4233
da ako razbiješ taj akvarijum, i sve postane moguće,
19:12
you don't have freedom.
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1413
19:13
You have paralysis.
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1776
tada nemaš slobodu. Imaš paralizu.
19:16
If you shatter this fishbowl so that everything is possible,
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3532
Ako razbiješ akvarijum tako da sve postane moguće,
19:19
you decrease satisfaction.
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2772
u stvari smanjiš svoje zadovoljstvo.
19:23
You increase paralysis, and you decrease satisfaction.
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3620
Povećaš paralizu i smanjiš zadovoljstvo.
19:26
Everybody needs a fishbowl.
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1665
Svakome treba jedan akvarijum.
19:29
This one is almost certainly too limited --
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2344
Ovaj ovde je sigurno previše skučen,
19:31
perhaps even for the fish, certainly for us.
407
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3005
čak možda i za ovu zlatnu ribicu, ali sigurno za nas.
19:34
But the absence of some metaphorical fishbowl is a recipe for misery
408
1174397
4468
Ali nepostojanje ovakvog metaforičnog, zamišljenog akvarijuma, je recept za nezadovoljstvo i bedu,
19:38
and, I suspect, disaster.
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1785
cak i totalnu nesrecu.
19:41
Thank you very much.
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1270
Hvala vam lepo.
19:42
(Applause)
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1642
(Aplauz)
About this website

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