The paradox of choice | Barry Schwartz | TED

Prevoditelj: Toni Begović Recezent: Ivan Voras

I'm going to talk to you about some stuff that's in this book of mine

Pričati ću vam o nekim stvarima iz svoje knjige

that I hope will resonate with other things you've already heard,

koje će, nadam se, rezonirati sa nekim drugim stvarima koje ste već čuli,

and I'll try to make some connections myself,

a pokušati ću i sam napraviti neke poveznice, u slučaju da su vam promakle.

in case you miss them.

But I want to start with what I call the "official dogma."

Htio bih početi sa nečim što zovem "službenom dogmom."

The official dogma of what?

Službenom dogmom čega?

The official dogma of all Western industrial societies.

Službenom dogmom svih zapadnih industrijskih društava.

And the official dogma runs like this:

A ona ide ovako:

if we are interested in maximizing the welfare of our citizens,

ako želimo povećati blagostanje naših građana,

the way to do that is to maximize individual freedom.

to ćemo učiniti tako što ćemo povećati slobodu individua.

The reason for this is both that freedom is, in and of itself, good,

Razlog tome je što je sloboda sama po sebi dobra stvar,

valuable, worthwhile, essential to being human,

dragocjena, vrijedna truda, i osnovni čimbenik ljudskosti.

and because if people have freedom,

A ako ljudi imaju slobodu,

then each of us can act on our own

tada svatko od nas može postupati po vlastitom nahođenju

to do the things that will maximize our welfare,

i raditi stvari koje će maksimizirati naše blagostanje,

and no one has to decide on our behalf.

te nitko ne mora odlučivati u naše ime.

The way to maximize freedom is to maximize choice.

Način na koji možemo maksimizirati slobodu je da maksimiziramo mogućnost izbora.

The more choice people have, the more freedom they have,

Što više izbora ljudi imaju, imati će i više slobode,

and the more freedom they have,

a što više slobode imaju,

the more welfare they have.

to će njihova dobrobit biti veća.

This, I think, is so deeply embedded in the water supply

Ovo je, po mome mišljenju, duboko usađeno u opskrbu vodom

that it wouldn't occur to anyone to question it.

toliko da nikome ne bi palo na pamet sumnjati.

Također, to je duboko usađeno i u našim životima.

And it's also deeply embedded in our lives.

I'll give you some examples

Dati ću vam nekoliko primjera što nam je sve napredak omogućio.

of what modern progress has made possible for us.

This is my supermarket.

Ovo je moj supermarket. Nije jedan od većih.

Not such a big one.

I want to say just a word about salad dressing.

Htio bih samo reći nešto o preljevima za salatu.

A hundred seventy-five salad dressings in my supermarket,

U mom supermarketu postoji čak 175 prelljeva za salatu,

if you don't count the 10 extra-virgin olive oils

ako ne računate deset različitih vrsta ekstra-djevičanskog maslinovog ulja

and 12 balsamic vinegars you could buy

i 12 vrsta balzamičnog octa koji možete kupiti

to make a very large number of your own salad dressings,

kako bi napravili vrlo velik broj vlastitih preljeva za salatu

in the off-chance that none of the 175 the store has on offer suit you.

u slučaju vrlo malene mogućnosti da vam nijedan od onih 175 ne odgovara

So this is what the supermarket is like.

Takva je situacija u supermarketima.

And then you go to the consumer electronics store

A zatim odete u trgovinu električnom opremom da kupite zvučni sustav --

to set up a stereo system --

speakers, CD player, tape player, tuner, amplifier --

zvučnike, CD player, kazetofon, podešavač, pojačalo.

and in this one single consumer electronics store,

A u toj jednoj jedinoj trgovini električnom opremom,

there are that many stereo systems.

postoji toliko mnogo zvučnih sustava.

We can construct six and a half million different stereo systems

Mogli bi napravit šest i pol milijuna različitih zvučnih sustava

out of the components that are on offer in one store.

od komponenti koje su u ponudi.

You've got to admit that's a lot of choice.

Morate priznati da je to veliki izbor.

In other domains -- the world of communications.

U drugim područjima -- naprimjer u telekomunikacijskim uslugama:

There was a time, when I was a boy,

Nekada davno, kada sam bio mali,

when you could get any kind of telephone service you wanted,

kada ste mogli dobiti bilo kakvu telefonsku uslugu koju ste željeli,

as long as it came from Ma Bell.

dok god je ona dolazila od tvrtke Ma Bell

You rented your phone, you didn't buy it.

Telefon se iznajmljivao. Nije se kupovao.

One consequence of that, by the way, is that the phone never broke.

Jedna od posljedica toga, usput, je da se telefon nikad nije kvario.

And those days are gone.

Ali to vrijeme je iza nas.

We now have an almost unlimited variety of phones,

Sada imamo skoro neograničenu ponudu telefona,

especially in the world of cell phones.

pogotovo mobitela.

These are cell phones of the future.

Ovo su mobiteli budućnosti.

My favorite is the middle one --

Meni najdraži je onaj u sredini --

the MP3 player, nose hair trimmer, and crème brûlée torch.

MP3 player, rezač dlaka u nosu i plamenik za karameliziranje u jednom.

And if --

A ako nekim slučajem niste već našli ovo u vašem dućanu,

(Laughter)

if by some chance you haven't seen that in your store yet,

you can rest assured that one day soon, you will.

možete biti uvjereni da jednog dana hoćete.

And what this does is it leads people to walk into their stores,

A što se zbog toga događa

je to da ljudi u trgovinama postavljaju ovakva pitanja.

asking this question.

And do you know what the answer to this question now is?

Znate li koji je odgovor na ovo pitanje?

The answer is "no."

Odgovor je "Ne."

It is not possible to buy a cell phone that doesn't do too much.

Nije moguće kupiti mobitel koji ne radi puno toga.

So, in other aspects of life that are much more significant than buying things,

Također, u drugim područjima života koji su mnogo važniji od kupovanja,

the same explosion of choice is true.

događa se ista eksplozija izbora.

Health care.

Zdravstvena skrb -- u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama više nije slučaj

It is no longer the case in the United States

that you go to the doctor, and the doctor tells you what to do.

da vi odete kod liječnik, a on vam kaže što trebate učiniti.

Instead, you go to the doctor,

Umjesto toga, vi odete kod liječnika,

and the doctor tells you, "Well, we could do A, or we could do B.

a on vam kaže, imamo opciju A i opciju B.

A has these benefits and these risks.

Opcija A ima ove prednosti i ovakav rizik.

B has these benefits and these risks.

Opcija B ima ove prednosti i ovakav rizik. Što želite napraviti?

What do you want to do?"

And you say, "Doc, what should I do?"

A vi kažete, "Doktore, što bih trebao napraviti?"

And the doc says, "A has these benefits and risks,

I doktor kaže, opcija A ima ove prednosti i ovaj rizik, a B ima ove prednosti i ovaj rizik.

and B has these benefits and risks.

What do you want to do?"

Što želite napraviti?

And you say, "If you were me, Doc, what would you do?"

A vi kažete, "Da ste vi na mom mjestu doktore, što bi vi napravili?"

And the doc says, "But I'm not you."

I liječnik kaže, "Ali ja nisam na vašem mjestu."

And the result is -- we call it "patient autonomy,"

Što dovodi do nečega što zovemo "samostalnost pacijenta,"

which makes it sound like a good thing,

što zvuči kao dobra stvar.

but what it really is is a shifting of the burden and the responsibility

No jedino što se događa je prebacivanje tereta i odgovornosti

za donošenje odluka s nekog tko zna nešto --

for decision-making

from somebody who knows something -- namely, the doctor --

to jest doktora --

na nekoga tko ne zna apsolutno ništa i gotovo sigurno je bolestan

to somebody who knows nothing and is almost certainly sick

and thus, not in the best shape to be making decisions --

i prema tome nije u najboljem stanju da donosi odluke --

namely, the patient.

to jest pacijent.

There's enormous marketing of prescription drugs

Lijekovi na recept se strašno mnogo promoviraju

to people like you and me,

ljudima poput vas i mene,

which, if you think about it, makes no sense at all,

što, kad razmislite o tome, nema uopće smisla,

since we can't buy them.

jer ih ne možemo kupiti.

Why do they market to us if we can't buy them?

Zašto se reklamiraju lijekovi koje ne možemo kupiti?

The answer is that they expect us to call our doctors the next morning

Odgovor je u tome da oni očekuju od nas da nazovemo svoje liječnike slijedećeg jutra

and ask for our prescriptions to be changed.

i zatražimo da nam promijeni recept.

Something as dramatic as our identity

Nešto toliko dramatično kao naš identitet

has now become a matter of choice,

je sada postala stvar izbora,

as this slide is meant to indicate.

kako vidimo iz ovog slajda.

We don't inherit an identity; we get to invent it.

Mi ne nasljeđujemo identitet, mi ga stvaramo.

And we get to reinvent ourselves as often as we like.

A sada možemo ponovno stvarati sebe koliko god želimo.

And that means that every day, when you wake up in the morning,

Što znači da svakog jutra kada se probudite,

morate odlučiti kakva ćete osoba biti.

you have to decide what kind of person you want to be.

With respect to marriage and family:

S poštovanjem prema braku i obitelji,

there was a time when the default assumption that almost everyone had

postojalo je vrijeme kada je uobičajena pretpostavka koju su svi imali

is that you got married as soon as you could,

bila da se vjenčate što prije,

and then you started having kids as soon as you could.

kako bi imali djecu što prije.

Jedini pravi izbor je bio za koga,

The only real choice was who,

not when, and not what you did after.

ne kada, i ne što ćete vi raditi poslije.

Nowadays, everything is very much up for grabs.

Danas, sve je na pladnju.

I teach wonderfully intelligent students,

Ja poučavam nevjerojatno inteligentne studente,

and I assign 20 percent less work than I used to.

a zadajem im 20 posto manje posla nego što sam prije.

And it's not because they're less smart,

To nije zbog toga što su oni manje pametni,

and it's not because they're less diligent.

ni zbog toga što su manje marljivi.

It's because they are preoccupied, asking themselves,

To je zbog toga što su prezaposleni preispitujući sebe,

"Should I get married or not? Should I get married now?

"Bih li se trebao vjenčati ili ne? Trebam li se vjenčati sada?

Should I get married later?

Trebam li se vjenčati kasnije? Prvo djeca, ili prvo karijera?"

Should I have kids first or a career first?"

All of these are consuming questions.

Sve su to važna pitanja.

And they're going to answer these questions,

A oni će odgovoriti na ta pitanja,

whether or not it means not doing all the work I assign

bez obzira da li naprave sav posao koji sam im zadao

and not getting a good grade in my courses.

i da li dobiju dobru ocjenu iz mog kolegija.

And indeed they should.

Tako bi i trebali. To su važna pitanja na koja treba odgovoriti.

These are important questions to answer.

Work.

Rad -- mi smo blagoslovljeni, kako je Carl istaknuo,

We are blessed, as Carl was pointing out,

with the technology that enables us to work every minute of every day

sa svom tehnologijom koja nam omogućuje

da radimo svake minute svakog dana sa bilo kojeg mjesta na planetu --

from any place on the planet --

except the Randolph Hotel.

osim hotela Randolph.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

(Applause)

There is one corner, by the way,

Postoji jedan kut, usput,

that I'm not going to tell anybody about, where the WiFi actually works.

za koji neću nikome reći, gdje radi bežični internet.

I'm not telling you about it, because I want to use it.

Neću vam reći koji je jer ga ja želim koristiti.

So what this means,

Dakle što ovo znači, ova nevjerojatna sloboda izbora

this incredible freedom of choice we have with respect to work,

s kojom moramo raditi, je da moramo odlučivati

is that we have to make a decision,

again and again and again,

opet i opet i opet,

about whether we should or shouldn't be working.

bi li ili ne bi trebali raditi.

We can go to watch our kid play soccer,

Mogli bi otići na djetetovu utakmicu,

and we have our cell phone on one hip and our Blackberry on our other hip,

sa mobitelom na jednom bedru,

Blackberryjem na drugom,

and our laptop, presumably, on our laps.

i laptopom, po svoj prilici, u krilu.

And even if they're all shut off,

Čak i ako su svi ugašeni,

every minute that we're watching our kid mutilate a soccer game,

svake minute koju provedemo gledajući kako naše dijete masakrira nogometnu utakmicu,

we are also asking ourselves,

pitamo se,

"Should I answer this cell phone call?

"Trebam li odgovoriti na ovaj poziv?

Should I respond to this email? Should I draft this letter?"

Trebam li odgovoriti na ovaj e-mail? Trebam li napraviti skicu ovog pisma?"

And even if the answer to the question is "no,"

I čak i ako je odgovor "ne,"

it's certainly going to make the experience of your kid's soccer game

to će svakako učiniti iskustvo gledanja nogometne utakmice vašeg djeteta

very different than it would've been.

mnogo drukčijim nego što bi ono inače bilo.

So everywhere we look,

Dakle, gdje god pogledamo,

big things and small things, material things and lifestyle things,

velike i male stvari, materijalne i životne stvari,

life is a matter of choice.

život je stvar izbora.

And the world we used to live in looked like this.

Svijet u kojem smo se navikli živjeti izgleda ovako.

[Well, actually, they are written in stone.]

That is to say, there were some choices,

Što će reći, postojala je neka sloboda izbora,

but not everything was a matter of choice.

ali nije sve bila stvar izbora.

The world we now live in looks like this.

A svijet u kojem sada živimo izgleda ovako.

[The Ten Commandments Do-It-Yourself Kit]

Pitanje je, jesu li ovo dobre ili loše vijesti?

And the question is: Is this good news or bad news?

And the answer is "yes."

A odgovor je da.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

We all know what's good about it,

Svi znamo dobre strane,

so I'm going to talk about what's bad about it.

tako da ću ja govoriti o lošim stranama.

All of this choice has two effects,

Sav ovaj izbor ima dvije posljedice,

two negative effects on people.

dvije negativne posljedice za ljude.

One effect, paradoxically,

Jedna od njih je, paradoksalno,

is that it produces paralysis rather than liberation.

da se događa paraliza umjesto oslobođenja

With so many options to choose from,

Sa toliko mnogo mogućnosti koje možemo birati,

people find it very difficult to choose at all.

ljudima postaje vrlo teško izabrati bilo što.

I'll give you one very dramatic example of this,

Dati ću vam jedan dramatičan primjer,

a study that was done of investments in voluntary retirement plans.

napravljena je studija o dobrovoljnom ulaganju u mirovinske fondove.

A colleague of mine got access to investment records from Vanguard,

Jedna moja kolegica je dobla pristup arhivi investicija u Vanguardu,

the gigantic mutual fund company,

ogromnoj tvrtki koja se bavi zajedničkim fondovima

of about a million employees and about 2,000 different workplaces.

koja pokriva oko milijun zaposlenika i oko 2,000 različitih radnih mjesta.

What she found is that for every 10 mutual funds the employer offered,

Ona je otkrila da

za svakih 10 zajedničkih fondova koje je poslodavac ponudio,

rate of participation went down two percent.

stopa sudjelovanja se spustila za dva posto.

You offer 50 funds -- 10 percent fewer employees participate

Vi ponudite 50 fondova -- 10 posto manje zaposlenika sudjeluje

than if you only offer five.

nego da ponudite pet. Zašto?

Why?

Because with 50 funds to choose from,

Zato što sa 50 fondova koje možete izabrati

it's so damn hard to decide which fund to choose,

prokleto je teško odlučiti koji izabrati

that you'll just put it off till tomorrow,

pa ćete to odgoditi za sutra.

and then tomorrow

I sutra, i opet sutra,

and then tomorrow and tomorrow,

i sutra, i sutra,

and, of course, tomorrow never comes.

i naravno, sutra nikad ne dođe.

Understand that not only does this mean

Razumijte da ovo ne znači samo

that people are going to have to eat dog food when they retire

da će ljudi morati jesti samo pseću hranu kada odu u mirovinu

because they don't have enough money put away,

jer nemaju dovoljno novca za bilo što drugo,

it also means that making the decision is so hard

to također znači da je odlučivanje toliko teško

that they pass up significant matching money from the employer.

da će oni propustiti priliku da njihov poslodavac uloži koliko i oni.

By not participating, they are passing up as much as 5,000 dollars a year

Nesudjelovanjem, propuštaju čak do 5,000 dolara godišnje

from the employer,

od poslodavca, koji bi rado njihov unos udvostručio.

who would happily match their contribution.

So paralysis is a consequence of having too many choices.

Dakle paraliza je posljedica prevelike slobode izbora.

And I think it makes the world look like this.

Zbog čega mislim da svijet izgleda ovako.

[And lastly, for all eternity, French, bleu cheese or ranch?]

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

You really want to get the decision right if it's for all eternity, right?

Zaista želite učiniti pravu odluku ako je za cijelu vječnost, je li tako?

You don't want to pick the wrong mutual fund or wrong salad dressing.

Ne želite izabrati krivi fond, čak ni krivi preljev za salatu.

So that's one effect.

Tako da je to jedan efekt. Drugi je taj da

The second effect is that, even if we manage to overcome the paralysis

čak i ako uspijemo prevladati paralizu i napraviti izbor,

and make a choice,

we end up less satisfied with the result of the choice

na kraju smo manje zadovoljni rezultatom tog izbora

than we would be if we had fewer options to choose from.

nego što bi bili da smo imali manje opcija za biranje.

And there are several reasons for this.

Za ovo postoji nekoliko razloga.

One of them is, with a lot of different salad dressings to choose from,

Jedan od kojih je taj da sa mnogo različitih preljeva za salatu koje možemo izabrati,

if you buy one and it's not perfect -- and what salad dressing is? --

ako kupite jedan, a on nije savršen -- a koji preljev za salatu uopće je?

it's easy to imagine that you could've made a different choice

Lako je zamisliti da ste mogli napraviti drugi izbor

that would've been better.

koji bi bio bolji. A što se događa je da

And what happens is,

this imagined alternative induces you to regret the decision you made,

vas ova zamišljena alternativa navodi da požalite odluku koju ste donijeli,

and this regret subtracts from the satisfaction you get

što se oduzima od zadovoljstva koje bi dobili od te odluke,

out of the decision you made,

even if it was a good decision.

čak i ako je to bila dobra odluka.

The more options there are, the easier it is to regret anything at all

Što ima više opcija, lakše je požaliti bilo što

that is disappointing about the option that you chose.

što je razočaravajuće sa opcijom koju ste izabrali.

Second, what economists call "opportunity costs."

Drugo je ono što ekonomisti nazivaju oportunitetni troškovi.

Dan Gilbert made a big point this morning

Dan Gilbert je danas pričao o tome

of talking about how much the way in which we value things

kako način na koji mi vrednujemo stvari

depends on what we compare them to.

ovisi o onome s čime ih uspoređujemo.

Well, when there are lots of alternatives to consider,

Kako postoji mnogo alternativa koje bi trebali razmotriti,

it's easy to imagine the attractive features of alternatives that you reject

lako je zamisliti sve privlačne aspekte

onih alternativa koje ne izaberete,

that make you less satisfied with the alternative that you've chosen.

koje vas čine manje zadovoljnima sa alternativom koju ste izabrali.

Here's an example.

[I can't stop thinking about those other available parking spaces on W 85th Street]

Evo primjer. Za one od vas koji niste iz New Yorka, ispričavam se.

If you're not a New Yorker, I apologize.

(Smijeh)

Ali ovo je ono o čemu sada vjerojatno razmišljate.

Here's what you're supposed to be thinking.

Ovo je par iz Hamptona.

Here's this couple on the Hamptons. Very expensive real estate.

Vrlo skupa nekretnina.

Gorgeous beach. Beautiful day. They have it all to themselves.

Prekrasna plaža. Divan dan. Imaju sve što su mogli poželjeti.

What could be better?

Što može biti bolje? "Kvragu,"

"Damn it," this guy is thinking,

ovaj čovjek misli, "Kolovoz je.

"It's August. Everybody in my Manhattan neighborhood is away.

Svi su otišli iz Manhattana.

I could be parking right in front of my building."

Mogao bih se parkirati ispred svoje zgrade."

And he spends two weeks nagged by the idea

I on potroši dva tjedna razmišljajući o tome

that he is missing the opportunity, day after day,

kako on propušta priliku, dan za danom, za odlično parkirno mjesto.

to have a great parking space.

(Laughter)

Opportunity costs subtract from the satisfaction

Oportunitetni troškovi oduzimaju od zadovoljstva koje dobijemo svojim izborom,

that we get out of what we choose,

even when what we choose is terrific.

čak iako je ono što mi izaberemo odlično.

And the more options there are to consider,

Što ima više opcija za izabrati,

the more attractive features of these options

to će se na sve više privlačnih značajki tih opcija

are going to be reflected by us as opportunity costs.

odnositi oportunitetni troškovi.

Here's another example.

Evo drugog primjera.

(Laughter)

Now, this cartoon makes a lot of points.

Ova karikatura ističe mnogo stvari.

It makes points about living in the moment as well,

Ističe kako bi trebalo živjeti u trenutku,

and probably about doing things slowly.

i raditi stvari sporije.

But one point it makes is that whenever you're choosing one thing,

Ali što je važnije, ističe da kad god izabirete jednu stvar,

you're choosing not to do other things,

izabirete da ne želite druge stvari.

and those other things may have lots of attractive features,

A te druge stvari mogu imati dovoljno privlačnih značajki,

and it's going to make what you're doing

tako da će vama vaš izbor biti manje privlačan.

less attractive.

Third: escalation of expectations.

Treće: eskalacija očekivanja.

This hit me when I went to replace my jeans.

Ovo me pogodilo kada sam išao kupiti nove traperice.

I wear jeans almost all the time.

Nosim traperice gotovo stalno.

There was a time when jeans came in one flavor,

A prije su traperice dolazile u jednoj izvedbi,

and you bought them, and they fit like crap.

kupili ste ih, pristajale su loše,

They were incredibly uncomfortable,

i bile su nevjerojatno neudobne,

and if you wore them long enough and washed them enough times,

ali ako ste ih nosili dovoljno dugo i oprali dovoljno puno puta,

they started to feel OK.

počele bi biti dobre.

I went to replace my jeans after years of wearing these old ones.

Tako sam išao po nove traperice nakon godina i godina nošenja starih traperica,

I said, "I want a pair of jeans. Here's my size."

i rekao sam, "Trebam jedne traperice, ovo je moja veličina."

And the shopkeeper said,

A prodavač kaže,

"Do you want slim fit, easy fit, relaxed fit?

"Želite li uske, lagane, široke?

You want button fly or zipper fly? You want stonewashed or acid-washed?

Želite li dugmad ili patent zatvarač? Želite da izgledaju izbijeljeno ili iznošeno?

Do you want them distressed?

Želite li da su zgužvane?

Do you want boot cut, tapered?" Blah, blah, blah on and on he went.

Želite li uske nogavice, trapez-kroj, bla bla bla..." Tako je on nastavljao.

My jaw dropped.

Nisam mogao vjerovati, i nakon što sam se oporavio, rekoh,

And after I recovered, I said,

"I want the kind that used to be the only kind."

"Želim one koje su prije bile jedine."

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

He had no idea what that was.

On nije imao pojma koje bi to bile,

(Laughter)

pa sam potrošio sat vremena isprobavajući sve one proklete traperice,

So I spent an hour trying on all these damn jeans,

and I walked out of the store -- truth --

i izašao iz trgovine -- istini za volju -- sa najboljim trapericama koje sam ikad nosio.

with the best-fitting jeans I had ever had.

I did better.

Prošao sam bolje. Sav taj izbor omogućio mi je da postignem bolje.

All this choice made it possible for me to do better.

But --

Ali osjećao sam se gore.

I felt worse.

Why? I wrote a whole book to try to explain this to myself.

Zašto? Napisao sam knjigu kako bih sebi to objasnio.

The reason is --

Razlog zbog kojeg sam se osjećao gore je,

(Laughter)

The reason I felt worse is that with all of these options available,

sa svim tim dostupnim opcijama,

my expectations about how good a pair of jeans should be went up.

moja očekivanja za jedan par traperica su se popela.

I had very low, no particular expectations when they only came in one flavor.

Imao sam vrlo mala očekivanja.

Nisam imao nikakvih posebnih očekivanja kad su one dolazile samo u jednoj varijanti.

When they came in 100 flavors, damn it, one of them should've been perfect.

Kad su bile dostupne u 100 izvedbi, kvragu,

jedne od njih trebale bi biti savršene.

And what I got was good, but it wasn't perfect.

A ono što sam dobio bilo je dobro, no ne i savršeno.

And so I compared what I got to what I expected,

Pa sam usporedio ono što sam dobio sa onim što sam očekivao,

and what I got was disappointing in comparison to what I expected.

i ono što sam dobio je bilo razočaravajuće s obzirom na ono što sam očekivao.

Dodavanje opcija u živote ljudi

Adding options to people's lives

can't help but increase the expectations people have

mora povećati očekivanja koja ljudi imaju

about how good those options will be.

i koliko dobre će te opcije biti.

And what that's going to produce is less satisfaction with results,

A to donosi manje zadovoljstva sa krajnjim ishodom,

even when they're good results.

čak iako je to povoljan ishod.

[It all looks so great. I can't wait to be disappointed.]

Nitko u oglašavanju nije svjestan toga.

Nobody in the world of marketing knows this.

Jer da jesu, ne biste znali o čemu se ovdje radi.

Because if they did, you wouldn't all know what this was about.

The truth is more like this.

Istina izgleda više ovako.

[Everything was better back when everything was worse.]

(Smijeh)

The reason that everything was better back when everything was worse

Razlog zbog kojeg je sve djelovalo bolje kada je zapravo bilo gore

is that when everything was worse,

je što kad je sve bilo gore,

it was actually possible for people

bilo je moguće da ljudi dožive nešto sa ugodnim iznenađenjem.

to have experiences that were a pleasant surprise.

Nowadays, the world we live in -- we affluent, industrialized citizens,

Danas, u svijetu u kojem živimo mi -- bogati, industrijalizirani ljudi,

with perfection the expectation --

sa ciljem savršenstva --

the best you can ever hope for

najbolje čemu se možete nadati je da su stvari jednako dobre kao što bi i očekivali.

is that stuff is as good as you expect it to be.

You will never be pleasantly surprised,

Nikada nećete biti ugodno iznenađeni

because your expectations, my expectations,

jer su se strašno povećala vaša i moja očekivanja

have gone through the roof.

The secret to happiness -- this is what you all came for --

Tajna sreće -- zbog ovoga ste svi vi tu --

the secret to happiness is:

tajna sreće su niska očekivanja.

low expectations.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

[You'll do]

(Pljesak)

(Applause)

(Laughter)

I want to say --

Želio bih reći -- kao kratka autobigrafska digresija --

just a little autobiographical moment --

that I actually am married to a wife,

da sam oženjen za ženu,

and she's really quite wonderful.

koja je jako divna.

I couldn't have done better.

Nisam mogao proći bolje. Nisam se zadovoljio s manje.

I didn't settle.

But settling isn't always such a bad thing.

Ali zadovoljavanje s manje nije uvijek loša stvar.

Finally,

Konačno, jedna posljedica kupovanja traperica koje vam loše stoje

one consequence of buying a bad-fitting pair of jeans

when there is only one kind to buy

kada postoji samo jedna vrsta koju možete kupiti

is that when you are dissatisfied and you ask why, who's responsible,

jest kada ste razočarani, i zapitate se zašto,

tko je odgovoran za to, odgovor je očit.

the answer is clear: the world is responsible.

Svijet je odgovoran za to. Što vi možete s tim?

What could you do?

When there are hundreds of different styles of jeans available

Kad postoje stotine različitih vrsta traperica u ponudi,

and you buy one that is disappointing

a vi kupite jedne koje su razočaravajuće,

and you ask why, who's responsible,

i zapitate se zašto, tko je odgovoran za to?

it is equally clear that the answer to the question is "you."

Jednako je jasno da je odgovor: vi.

You could have done better.

Mogli ste proći bolje.

With a hundred different kinds of jeans on display,

Sa stotinama različitih vrsta traperica u ponudi,

there is no excuse for failure.

nema isprike za pogrešku.

And so when people make decisions,

Tako kada ljudi odlučuju,

and even though the results of the decisions are good,

iako je ishod odluke povoljan,

they feel disappointed about them;

osjećaju se razočarano,

they blame themselves.

krive sami sebe.

Clinical depression has exploded in the industrial world

Depresija se jako povećala u razvijenim zemljama u zadnjoj generaciji.

in the last generation.

I believe a significant -- not the only, but a significant -- contributor

Vjerujem da je značajan -- ne jedini, ali značajan doprinos

to this explosion of depression and also suicide,

povećanju depresije, i samoubojstava,

is that people have experiences that are disappointing

taj što ljudi imaju razočaravajuća iskustva

because their standards are so high,

zbog previsokih očekivanja.

and then when they have to explain these experiences to themselves,

A kada moraju sami sebi objasniti ta iskustva,

they think they're at fault.

pomisle da su sami krivi.

So the net result is that we do better in general, objectively,

A rezultat je da postižemo objektivno više,

and we feel worse.

a osjećamo se lošije.

So let me remind you:

Dopustite da vas podsjetim.

this is the official dogma, the one that we all take to be true,

Ovo je službena dogma, koju svi uzimamo kao točnu,

and it's all false.

no ona je lažna. Nije istina.

It is not true.

There's no question that some choice is better than none.

Nema spora da je mogućnost nekakvog izbora bolja od nikakvog,

But it doesn't follow from that

ali to ne znači da je više mogućnosti bolje od manje.

that more choice is better than some choice.

There's some magical amount. I don't know what it is.

Postoji neka čarobna količina. Ne znam koliko iznosi.

I'm pretty confident that we have long since passed the point

Poprilično sam siguran da smo odavno prešli točku

where options improve our welfare.

gdje opcije poboljšavaju naše blagostanje.

Now, as a policy matter -- I'm almost done --

Što se tiče generalne ideje -- uskoro sam gotov --

as a policy matter, the thing to think about is this:

što se tiče generalne ideje, trebalo bi razmisliti o ovome.

what enables all of this choice in industrial societies

Ono što omogućava sav ovaj izbor u industrijskim društvima je materijalno bogatstvo.

is material affluence.

There are lots of places in the world,

Mnogo je mjesta na svijetu,

and we have heard about several of them,

čuli smo za neka od njih,

where their problem is not that they have too much choice.

gdje nije problem što oni imaju previše izbora.

Problem je što imaju premalo.

Their problem is they have too little.

So the stuff I'm talking about is the peculiar problem

Ono o čemu govorim je jedan neobičan problem

of modern, affluent, Western societies.

suvremenih, bogatih, zapadnih društava.

And what is so frustrating and infuriating is this:

A ono što je toliko frustrirajuće je slijedeće:

Steve Levitt talked to you yesterday

Steve Levitt je jučer govorio o tome kako

about how these expensive and difficult-to-install child seats

skupe i nezgrapne sjedalice za djecu ne pomažu. One su gubitak novca.

don't help.

It's a waste of money.

What I'm telling you is that these expensive, complicated choices --

Ono što ja govorim je da ove skupe, komplicirane opcije --

it's not simply that they don't help.

ne samo da ne pomažu.

They actually hurt.

One zapravo štete.

They actually make us worse off.

Od njih nam je zapravo lošije.

If some of what enables people in our societies

Kad bi se nešto od onoga što omogućuje sve ove opcije ljudima u našem društvu

to make all of the choices we make

were shifted to societies in which people have too few options,

prebaci prema društvima gdje ima premalo opcija,

not only would those people's lives be improved,

ne samo da bi se životi tih ljudi poboljšali,

but ours would be improved also.

ali i naši bi se također.

This is what economists call a "Pareto-improving move."

Ovo ekonomisti nazivaju potez Pareto-poboljšavanja.

Income redistribution will make everyone better off,

Preraspodjela prihoda pomaže svima -- ne samo siromašnima --

not just poor people,

because of how all this excess choice plagues us.

jer sav ovaj višak guši i nas.

So to conclude.

[You can be anything you want to be -- no limits.]

Da zaključim. Vi biste trebali pročitati ovu karikaturu,

You're supposed to read this cartoon and, being a sophisticated person, say,

i, kako ste profinjena osoba, reći,

"Ah! What does this fish know? Nothing is possible in this fishbowl."

"Što zna ova riba?

Svi znaju da ništa nije moguće u akvariju."

Impoverished imagination, a myopic view of the world --

Siromašna mašta, iskrivljen pogled na svijet --

that's the way I read it at first.

ovako sam i ja to pročitao prvi put.

The more I thought about it, however,

No što sam više razmišljao o tome,

the more I came to the view that this fish knows something.

više sam shvaćao da ova riba zna nešto.

Because the truth of the matter is,

Jer, istina je da

if you shatter the fishbowl so that everything is possible,

ako razbijete akvarij što čini sve mogućim,

you don't have freedom.

You have paralysis.

niste slobodni. Paralizirani ste.

If you shatter this fishbowl so that everything is possible,

Ako razbijete ovaj akvarij i postignete da je sve moguće,

you decrease satisfaction.

smanjujete zadovoljstvo.

You increase paralysis, and you decrease satisfaction.

Povećate paralizu, a smanjujete zadovoljstvo.

Everybody needs a fishbowl.

Svi trebaju akvarij.

This one is almost certainly too limited --

Ovaj je gotovo sigurno preograničen --

perhaps even for the fish, certainly for us.

možda za ribu, ali svakako za nas.

But the absence of some metaphorical fishbowl is a recipe for misery

Ali odsutnost nekakvog metaforičkog akvarija je recept za nezadovoljstvo,

and, I suspect, disaster.

možda i katastrofu.

Thank you very much.

Puno hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)