Google's driverless car | Sebastian Thrun

671,239 views ใƒป 2011-03-31

TED


ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Rafi Taglicht ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:15
As a boy,
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ื›ื™ืœื“,
00:17
I loved cars.
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ืื”ื‘ืชื™ ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช.
00:19
When I turned 18,
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ื›ืฉื”ื’ืขืชื™ ืœื’ื™ืœ 18.
00:21
I lost my best friend to a car accident.
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ืื™ื‘ื“ืชื™ ืืช ื—ื‘ืจื™ ื”ื˜ื•ื‘ ื‘ืชืื•ื ืช ื“ืจื›ื™ื.
00:25
Like this.
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ื›ืš.
00:27
And then I decided I'd dedicate my life
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ื‘ืขืงื‘ื•ืช ื”ืื™ืจื•ืข ื”ื—ืœื˜ืชื™ ืœื”ืงื“ื™ืฉ ืืช ื—ื™ื™
00:30
to saving one million people
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ืœื”ืฆืœืช ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืื ืฉื™ื
00:32
every year.
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ื‘ื›ืœ ืฉื ื”.
00:34
Now I haven't succeeded, so this is just a progress report,
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ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืœื ื”ืฆืœื—ืชื™, ื›ืš ืฉื–ื”ื• ืจืง ืขื™ื“ื›ื•ืŸ ืขืœ ื”ื”ืชืงื“ืžื•ืช ืขื“ ื›ื”,
00:37
but I'm here to tell you a little bit about self-driving cars.
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ืื ื™ ื›ืืŸ ืขืœ ืžื ืช ืœืกืคืจ ืœื›ื ืžืขื˜ ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉื ื•ื”ื’ื•ืช ืืช ืขืฆืžืŸ.
00:40
I saw the concept first
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ื ืชืงืœืชื™ ื‘ืžื•ืฉื’ ื‘ืคืขื ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื”
00:42
in the DARPA Grand Challenges
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ื‘ืืชื’ืจ ื”ื’ื“ื•ืœ ืฉืœ DARPA
00:44
where the U.S. government issued a prize
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ื‘ื• ืžืžืฉืœืช ืืจื”"ื‘ ื”ื›ืจื™ื–ื” ืขืœ ืคืจืก
00:46
to build a self-driving car that could navigate a desert.
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ืœื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ืฉืชืกืข ื‘ืขืฆืžื” ื•ืชื ื•ื•ื˜ ื‘ืžื“ื‘ืจ.
00:49
And even though a hundred teams were there,
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ืœืžืจื•ืช ืฉืžืื” ืงื‘ื•ืฆื•ืช ื”ืชื—ืจื• ื‘ืืชื’ืจ,
00:52
these cars went nowhere.
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ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช ื”ื’ื™ืขื• ืœืฉื•ื ืžืงื•ื.
00:55
So we decided at Stanford to build a different self-driving car.
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ืœืคื™ื›ืš ื”ื—ืœื˜ื ื• ื‘ืกื˜ื ืคื•ืจื“ ืœื‘ื ื•ืช ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ืœืœื ื ื”ื’ ืžื˜ื™ืคื•ืก ืฉื•ื ื”.
00:58
We built the hardware and the software.
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ื‘ื ื™ื ื• ืืช ื”ื—ื•ืžืจื” ื•ืืช ื”ืชื•ื›ื ื”.
01:01
We made it learn from us,
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ืืคืฉืจื ื• ืœื” ืœืœืžื•ื“ ืžืื™ืชื ื•,
01:03
and we set it free in the desert.
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ื•ืฉื—ืจืจื ื• ืื•ืชื” ืœื—ื•ืคืฉื™ ื‘ืžื“ื‘ืจ.
01:06
And the unimaginable happened:
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ืงืจื” ื”ืœื ื™ืืžืŸ:
01:08
it became the first car
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ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ื”ืคื›ื” ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื”
01:10
to ever return from a DARPA Grand Challenge,
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ืฉื—ื–ืจื” ืžืื– ื•ืžืขื•ืœื ืžืืชื’ืจ DARPA --
01:12
winning Stanford 2 million dollars.
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ื›ืฉื”ื™ื ื–ื•ื›ื” ื‘ืฉื ื™ ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ ืขื‘ื•ืจ ืกื˜ื ืคื•ืจื“.
01:17
Yet I still hadn't saved a single life.
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ืœืžืจื•ืช ื–ืืช ืขื“ื™ื™ืŸ ืœื ื”ืฆืœืชื™ ื—ื™ื™ ืื“ื ืื—ื“.
01:20
Since, our work has focused
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ืžืื–, ืขื‘ื•ื“ืชื ื• ื”ืชืžืงื“ื”
01:23
on building driving cars
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ื‘ื‘ื ื™ื™ืช ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช
01:25
that can drive anywhere by themselves --
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ืฉืžืกื•ื’ืœื•ืช ืœื ืกื•ืข ื‘ื›ืœ ืžืงื•ื ื‘ืขืฆืžืŸ --
01:28
any street in California.
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ื‘ื›ืœ ืจื—ื•ื‘ ื‘ืงืœื™ืคื•ืจื ื™ื”.
01:30
We've driven 140,000 miles.
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ื ื”ื’ื ื• ืœืื•ืจืš 140,000 ืžื™ื™ืœ.
01:33
Our cars have sensors
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ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืžืฆื•ื™ื“ื•ืช ื‘ื—ื™ื™ืฉื ื™ื
01:36
by which they magically can see
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ื‘ืขื–ืจืชื ื”ืŸ ืจื•ืื•ืช
01:39
everything around them
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ื”ื›ืœ ืกื‘ื™ื‘ืŸ
01:41
and make decisions
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ื•ื”ืŸ ืžืงื‘ืœื•ืช ื”ื—ืœื˜ื•ืช
01:43
about every aspect of driving.
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ื‘ื ื•ื’ืข ืœื›ืœ ืืกืคืงื˜ ืฉืœ ื ื”ื™ื’ื”.
01:46
It's the perfect driving mechanism.
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ื–ื”ื• ืžื ื’ื ื•ืŸ ื ื”ื™ื’ื” ืžื•ืฉืœื.
01:49
We've driven in cities,
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ื ืกืขื ื• ื‘ืขืจื™ื,
01:51
like in San Francisco here.
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ื›ืžื• ื›ืืŸ ื‘ืกืŸ ืคืจื ืกื™ืกืงื•.
01:53
We've driven from San Francisco to Los Angeles on Highway 1.
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ื ืกืขื ื• ืžืกืŸ ืคืจื ืกื™ืกืงื• ืœืœื•ืก ืื ื’'ืœืก ื‘ื›ื‘ื™ืฉ ื”ืžื”ื™ืจ ืžืกืคืจ 1.
01:57
We've encountered joggers,
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ื”ืชืžื•ื“ื“ื ื• ืขื ืจืฆื™ื,
01:59
busy highways, toll booths,
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ื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ืขืžื•ืกื™ื, ืชืื™ ืื’ืจื”,
02:02
and this is without a person in the loop;
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ื•ื–ืืช ืœืœื ืื“ื ื›ื—ืœืง ืžื”ืžืฉื•ื•ืื”,
02:04
the car just drives itself.
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ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ืคืฉื•ื˜ ื ื•ื”ื’ืช ืœื‘ื“ื”.
02:06
In fact, while we drove 140,000 miles,
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ืœืžืขืฉื” ื ื”ื’ื ื• 140,000 ืžื™ื™ืœื™ื,
02:09
people didn't even notice.
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ืžื‘ืœื™ ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ื”ื‘ื—ื™ื ื•.
02:12
Mountain roads,
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ื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ื”ืจืจื™ื™ื,
02:14
day and night,
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ื‘ื™ื•ื ื•ื‘ืœื™ืœื”,
02:17
and even crooked Lombard Street
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ื•ืืคื™ืœื• ื‘ืจื—ื•ื‘ ืœื•ืžื‘ืจื“ ื”ืขืงื•ื
02:20
in San Francisco.
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ื‘ืกืŸ ืคืจื ืกื™ืกืงื•.
02:22
(Laughter)
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(ืฆื—ื•ืง)
02:25
Sometimes our cars get so crazy,
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ืœืคืขืžื™ื ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ืžืฉืชื’ืขื•ืช,
02:28
they even do little stunts.
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ื•ื”ืŸ ืืคื™ืœื• ืขื•ืฉื•ืช ืคืขืœื•ืœื™ื ืคืฉื•ื˜ื™ื.
02:32
(Video) Man: Oh, my God.
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(ื•ื™ื“ืื•) ื‘ืŸ ืื“ื: ืื• ืืœื•ื”ื™ื.
02:36
What?
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ืžื”?
02:38
Second Man: It's driving itself.
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ืื“ื ืฉื ื™: ื”ื™ื ื ื•ืกืขืช ื‘ืขืฆืžื”.
02:42
Sebastian Thrun: Now I can't get my friend Harold back to life,
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ืกื‘ืกื˜ื™ืืŸ ืช'ื•ืจืŸ: ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช ื”ื–ื• ืœื ืชื—ื–ื™ืจ ืืช ื—ื‘ืจื™ ื”ืจื•ืœื“ ืœื—ื™ื™ื,
02:45
but I can do something for all the people who died.
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ืืš ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžืฉื”ื• ืขื‘ื•ืจ ื›ืœ ืื•ืชื ืื ืฉื™ื ืฉืžืชื•.
02:47
Do you know that driving accidents
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ื”ืื ื™ื“ืขืชื ืฉืชืื•ื ื•ืช ื“ืจื›ื™ื
02:50
are the number one cause of death for young people?
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ื”ืŸ ื”ื’ื•ืจื ืžืกืคืจ ืื—ืช ืœืžื•ื•ืช ื‘ืงืจื‘ ืื ืฉื™ื ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื?
02:53
And do you realize that almost all of those
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ื”ืื ื™ื“ืขืชื ืฉื›ืžืขื˜ ื›ืœ ืื•ืชืŸ ืชืื•ื ื•ืช
02:56
are due to human error
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ื ื•ื‘ืขื•ืช ืžื˜ืขื•ืช ืื ื•ืฉ
02:59
and not machine error,
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ื•ืœื ื ื•ื‘ืขื•ืช ืžื›ืฉืœ ื‘ืžื›ื•ื ื”,
03:01
and can therefore be prevented by machines?
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ื•ืœืคื™ื›ืš ื ื™ืชื ื•ืช ืœืžื ื™ืขื” ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื›ื•ื ื•ืช?
03:05
Do you realize
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ื”ืื ืืชื ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื
03:07
that we could change the capacity of highways
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ืฉื ื•ื›ืœ ืœืฉื ื•ืช ืืช ืงื™ื‘ื•ืœืช ื”ื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ื”ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื
03:10
by a factor of two or three
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ื‘ื’ื•ืจื ืฉืœ ืฉืชื™ื™ื ืื• ืฉืœื•ืฉ
03:13
if we didn't rely on human precision
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ื‘ืžื™ื“ื” ื•ืœื ื ืกืชืžืš ืขืœ ื“ื™ื•ืง ืื ื•ืฉื™
03:15
on staying in the lane --
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ืœืฉืžื™ืจื” ืขืœ ื ืชื™ื‘
03:17
improve body position
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ืœืžื™ืงื•ื ื”ืžื›ื•ื ื™ืช
03:19
and therefore drive a little bit closer together
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ื•ืœืคื™ื›ืš ื ื•ื›ืœ ืœื ืกื•ืข ืงืจื•ื‘ื™ื ืžืขื˜ ื™ื•ืชืจ ืื—ื“ ืœืฉื ื™
03:21
on a little bit narrower lanes,
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ื‘ื ืชื™ื‘ื™ื ืฆืจื™ื ื™ื•ืชืจ
03:23
and do away with all traffic jams on highways?
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ื•ื‘ื›ืš ืœื”ื™ืคื˜ืจ ืžืคืงืงื™ ืชื ื•ืขื” ื‘ื›ื‘ื™ืฉื™ื ื”ืžื”ื™ืจื™ื?
03:28
Do you realize that you, TED users,
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ื”ืื ืืชื ืžืฉืชืชืคื™ TED, ืžื‘ื™ื ื™ื,
03:31
spend an average
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ืฉืืชื ืžื‘ืœื™ื ื‘ืžืžื•ืฆืข
03:33
of 52 minutes per day
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52 ื“ืงื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื™ื•ื
03:35
in traffic,
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ื‘ื ื”ื™ื’ื”,
03:37
wasting your time
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ืžื‘ื–ื‘ื–ื™ื ืืช ื–ืžื ื›ื
03:39
on your daily commute?
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ืขืœ ื”ื ืกื™ืขื” ื”ื™ื•ืžื™ืช?
03:42
You could regain this time.
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ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืงื‘ืœ ืืช ื”ื–ืžืŸ ื”ื–ื” ื‘ื—ื–ืจื”.
03:44
This is four billion hours
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ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ืืจื‘ืข ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืฉืขื•ืช
03:46
wasted in this country alone.
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ื”ืžื‘ื•ื–ื‘ื–ื•ืช ืจืง ื‘ืืจืฅ ื”ื–ื• .
03:49
And it's 2.4 billion gallons of gasoline wasted.
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ื•ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ 2.4 ื‘ื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื’ืœื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื“ืœืง ืžื‘ื•ื–ื‘ื–.
03:53
Now I think there's a vision here, a new technology,
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉื™ืฉ ื›ืืŸ ื—ื–ื•ืŸ, ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ื—ื“ืฉื”,
03:56
and I'm really looking forward to a time
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ื•ืื ื™ ื‘ืืžืช ืžื—ื›ื” ืœื–ืžืŸ ื‘ื•
03:58
when generations after us look back at us
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ื“ื•ืจื•ืช ืื—ืจื™ื ื• ื™ื‘ื™ื˜ื• ืืœื™ื ื•
04:00
and say how ridiculous it was that humans were driving cars.
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ื•ื™ื—ืฉื‘ื• ื›ืžื” ืžื’ื•ื›ื—ืช ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉืื ืฉื™ื ื ื”ื’ื• ื‘ืžื›ื•ื ื™ื•ืช.
04:03
Thank you.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื”.
04:05
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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