Why people believe weird things | Michael Shermer

Prevodilac: Elizabeta Petrovic Lektor: Sandra Gojic

I'm Michael Shermer, director of the Skeptics Society,

Zdravo, ja sam Majkl Šermer, direktor Društva Skeptičnih,

publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.

izdavač časopisa Skeptik.

We investigate claims of the paranormal,

Istražujemo tvrdnje paranormalne, kvazi-nauke,

pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults, and claims of all kinds between,

i nakićene grupe i kultove i tvrdnje svih stvari između--

science and pseudo-science and non-science and junk science,

nauke i kvazi-nauke i ne-nauke i otpad od nauke,

voodoo science, pathological science, bad science, non-science,

vudu nauke, patološke nauke, loše nauke, ne-nauke

and plain old non-sense.

i dobre stare besmislenosti.

And unless you've been on Mars recently,

I osim ako ste skoro bili na Marsu,

you know there's a lot of that out there.

znate da toga ima dosta.

Some people call us debunkers, which is kind of a negative term.

Neki misle da pobijamo teorije, što je kao negativan izraz.

But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.

Ali pogledajmo--postoje puno koještarija,

We are like the bunko squads of the police departments out there --

i mi smo tamo kao tim za koještarije policijske uprave, koji čiste.

well, we're sort of like the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,

Pa, mi smo kao Ralf Neders loših ideja--

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

trying to replace bad ideas with good ideas.

--koji pokušavaju da zamene loše ideje sa dobrim idejama.

I'll show you an example of a bad idea.

Pokazaću vam primer jedne loše ideje.

I brought this with me,

Poneo sam ovo sa mnom.

this was given to us by NBC Dateline to test.

Ovo nam je dala emisija NBC Dejtlajn da testiramo.

It's produced by the Quadro Corporation of West Virginia.

To je-- to je proizvela Kvadro Korporacija iz Zapadne Virdzinije.

It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.

Zove se Kvadro 2000 Dauzer Rod.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This was being sold to high-school administrators for $900 apiece.

Ovo se prodavalo upravnicima srednjih škola za 900 dolara po komadu.

It's a piece of plastic with a Radio Shack antenna attached to it.

To je parče plastike sa klasničnom antenom koja je prikačena za njega.

You could dowse for all sorts of things,

Možete da detektujete sve moguće stvari, ali baš ovaj

but this particular one was built to dowse for marijuana

je napravljen da detektuje marihuanu u ormarićima učenika.

in students' lockers.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So the way it works is you go down the hallway,

Znači ovako radi, idete kroz hodnik i vidite ako

and you see if it tilts toward a particular locker,

skreće u pravcu nekog ormarića, i onda otvorite ormarić.

and then you open the locker.

So it looks something like this.

Izgleda ovako.

I'll show you.

Pokazaću vam.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.

Ne,to--pa, skreće malo desno.

Pokazaću vam--dakle, ovo je nauka, uradićemo kontrolisani eksperiment.

Well, this is science, so we'll do a controlled experiment.

Sigurno će ići u ovom pravcu.

It'll go this way for sure.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Sir, do you want to empty your pockets, please, sir?

Gospodine, hoćete da ispraznite vaše džepove. Molim vas, gospodine?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So the question was, can it actually find marijuana in students' lockers?

Znači pitanje je bilo, može li stvarno da nađe maruhuanu u učeničkim ormarićima?

And the answer is, if you open enough of them, yes.

I odgovor je, Ako dovoljno njih otvorite onda da.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

But in science, we have to keep track of the misses, not just the hits.

Ali u nauci, moramo da pratimo promašaje, ne samo pogotke.

And that's probably the key lesson to my short talk here:

I to je verovatno ključna lekcija u ovom mom kratkom govoru, je da

This is how psychics work, astrologers, tarot card readers and so on.

ovako rade vidovnjaci, astrolozi, i oni koji gledaju u tarot karte, i tako dalje.

People remember the hits and forget the misses.

Ljudi pamte pogotke;oni zaboravljaju promašaje.

In science, we keep the whole database,

U nauci moramo da čuvamo celu bazu podataka,

and look to see if the number of hits somehow stands out

i da vidimo ako se broj pogotka nekako izdvaja

from the total number you'd expect by chance.

od ukupnog broja koji biste slučajno očekivali.

In this case, we tested it.

U ovom slučaju smo testirali.

We had two opaque boxes:

Imali smo dve neprozirne kutije,

one with government-approved THC marijuana, and one with nothing.

jednu sa THC marihuanom odobrenom od strane vlasti,i jednu praznu.

And it got it 50 percent of the time --

I pogodio sam u 50 posto slučajeva--

(Laughter)

--što biste isto očekivali sa modelom bacanja novčića.

which is exactly what you'd expect with a coin-flip model.

So that's just a fun little example here of the sorts of things we do.

Dakle to je samo mali zanimljiv primer onog čime se mi bavimo.

Skeptik izlazi na svaka 3 meseca.

"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication. Each one has a particular theme.

Svaki od njih ima određenu temu,kao ovaj koji je o budućnosti inteligencije.

This one is on the future of intelligence.

Are people getting smarter or dumber?

Da li ljudi postaju pametniji ili gluplji?

I have an opinion of this myself because of the business I'm in,

I ja sam imam mišljenje o ovome zbog posla kojim se bavim.

but in fact, people, it turns out, are getting smarter.

Ali,u principu,ljudi,ispada,postaju pametniji.

3 IQ poena za 10 godina,raste.

Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.

Sort of an interesting thing.

Zanimljiva stvar.

With science, don't think of skepticism as a thing, or science as a thing.

Sa naukom,ne zamišljajte skepticizam kao stvar čak ni nauku kao stvar.

Are science and religion compatible?

Da li su nauka i religija kompatibilne?

It's like, are science and plumbing compatible?

To je kao,da li su nauka i vodoinstalicija kompatibilne?

They're just two different things.

Ovo--ovo su samo dve različite stvari.

Science is not a thing. It's a verb.

Nauka nije stvar.To je glagol.

It's a way of thinking about things.

To način razmišljanja o stvarima.

It's a way of looking for natural explanations for all phenomena.

To je način traženja prirodnih objašnjenja za sve fenomene.

I mean, what's more likely:

Mislim,šta je verovatnije--

that extraterrestrial intelligences or multi-dimensional beings

da vanzemaljci ili višedimenzionalna stvorenja putuju preko

travel across vast distances of interstellar space

ogromnih daljina međuzvezdanog svemira da ostave krug u žitu

to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's field in Puckerbrush, Kansas

u polju Farmera Boba u Pukerbušu,Kanzasu da promoviše skeptic.com,našu web stranicu?

to promote skeptic.com, our web page?

Or is it more likely that a reader of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?

Ili je verovatnije da je neki čitalac Skeptika uradio ovo Photoshop-om?

And in all cases we have to ask --

I u svim slučajevima moram da pitam--

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

What's the more likely explanation?

--koje je verovatnije objašnjenje?

Before we say something is out of this world,

I pre nego što kažemo da nešto potiče van ovog sveta,

we should first make sure that it's not in this world.

trebalo bi prvo da budemo sigurni da nije na ovom svetu.

What's more likely:

Šta je verovatnije--

that Arnold had extraterrestrial help in his run for the governorship,

da je Arnold imao malu pomoć vanzemaljaca u izboru za guvernera?

or that the "World Weekly News" makes stuff up?

Ili da World Weekly News (nedeljna novina) izmišlja stvari?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

The same theme is expressed nicely here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.

I deo toga--ista tema je izražena lepo

ovde u ovom stripu Sidneja Harisa.

For those of you in the back, it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.

Za vas nazad,ovde piše 'A onda se dogodi čudo.

I think you need to be more explicit here in step two."

Milsim da moraš da budeš određeniji u drugom koraku.'

This single slide completely dismantles the intelligent design arguments.

Ovaj slajd totalno razbija argumente inteligentnog dizajna.

There's nothing more to it than that.

Nema ništa više od toga.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

You can say a miracle occurs,

Možete da kažete da se događa čudo.

it's just that it doesn't explain anything or offer anything.

Samo to ne objašnjava ništa.

There's nothing to test.

Ne nudi ništa.Ne postoji ništa da se testira.

It's the end of the conversation for intelligent design creationists.

Ovo je kraj razgovora za one koji stvaraju inteligentni dizajn.

And it's true, scientists sometimes throw terms out as linguistic place fillers --

Gde se--i tačno je, naučnici razbacuju ponekad terminima da

popune mesta u rečenici--tamna energija ili tamna materija ili tako nešto.

dark energy or dark matter, something like that --

until we figure out what it is, we'll call it this.

Dok ne shvatimo šta je to,samo ćemo ga zvati tako.

It's the beginning of the causal chain for science.

Ovo je početak uzročnog lanca za nauku.

Za one koji stvaraju inteligentni dizajn,ovo je kraj lanca.

For intelligent design creationists, it's the end of the chain.

I opet,možemo da pitamo ovo--šta je verovatnije--

So again, we can ask this: what's more likely?

Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?

da li su NLO-i vanzemaljski svemirski brodovi ili perceptivno-kognitivne greške,ili lažnjaci?

This is a UFO shot from my house in Altadena, California,

Ovo je NLO snimak iz moje kuće u Atladeni,Kalifornija,

looking down over Pasadena.

nadgledajući Pasadenu.

And if it looks a lot like a Buick hubcap, it's because it is.

I ako dosta izgleda kao felna Bjuika,to je zato što to i jeste.

You don't even need Photoshop or high-tech equipment,

Ne treba vam ni Photoshop,ne treba vam oprema visoke tehnologije,

you don't need computers.

ne trebaju vam kompjuteri.

This was shot with a throwaway Kodak Instamatic camera.

Ovo je snimak sa Kodak Instamatik kamerom za jednokratnu upotrebu.

You just have somebody off on the side with a hubcap ready to go.

Jednostavno imate nekog sa strane sa felnom spreman da krene.

Camera's ready -- that's it.

Kamera spremna--to je to.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So, although it's possible that most of these things are fake

Ali,iako je moguće da su većine ovih stvari lažne

or illusions or so on, and that some of them are real,

ili iluzije i tako dalje i da su neki pravi,

it's more likely that all of them are fake, like the crop circles.

verovatnije je da su svi lažni,kao krugovi u polju.

On a more serious note, in all of science we're looking for a balance

Ako budemo ozblijniji,u celoj nauci tražimo ravnotežu

between data and theory.

između podataka i teorije.

In the case of Galileo, he had two problems

U Galilejevom slučaju,on je imao 2 problema

when he turned his telescope to Saturn.

kada je okrenuo svoj teleskop prema Saturnu.

First of all, there was no theory of planetary rings.

Prvo,nije postojala teorija o planetarnim prstenovima.

Second of all, his data was grainy and fuzzy,

I drugo,njegovi podaci su bili razbacani i izmešani,

and he couldn't quite make out what he was looking at.

i nije baš mogao shvati šta je tačno gledao.

So he wrote that he had seen --

I onda je on napisao da je video--

"I have observed that the furthest planet has three bodies."

' Spazio sam da najdalja planeta ima 3 tela.'

And this is what he ended up concluding that he saw.

I on je na kraju zaključio da je to video.

So without a theory of planetary rings and with only grainy data,

Dakle bez teorije o planetarnim prstenovima i sa razbacanim podacima,

you can't have a good theory.

ne možete da imate dobru teoriju.

It wasn't solved until 1655.

I ovo nije bilo rešeno do 1655.

This is Christiaan Huygens's book that catalogs all the mistakes

Ovo je knjiga Kristijana Hojgensa u kojoj je nabrojao sve greške

people made trying to figure out what was going on with Saturn.

koje su ljudi pravili pokušavajući da shvate šta se događa sa Saturnom.

It wasn't till Huygens had two things:

I nisu dok Hojgens nije imao dve stvari.

He had a good theory of planetary rings and how the solar system operated,

Imao je dobru teoriju o planetarnim prstenovima i kako solarni sistem radi.

and he had better telescopic, more fine-grain data

I onda,imao je bolji teleskop,više sređenih podataka

in which he could figure out that as the Earth is going around faster --

sa kojima je shvatio da Zemlja kruži brže--

according to Kepler's Laws -- than Saturn, then we catch up with it.

po Keplerovim zakonima--od Saturna,onda smo shvatili.

And we see the angles of the rings at different angles, there.

I vidimo sve uglove prstenova pod različitim uglovima,ovde.

And that, in fact, turns out to be true.

I to se ispostavilo da je bilo tačno.

The problem with having a theory is that it may be loaded with cognitive biases.

Problem sa teorijom

je da je vaša teorija možda prepunjena kognitivnim predubeđenjima.

So one of the problems of explaining why people believe weird things

Dakle,jedan od problema što se tiče objašnjavanja zašto ljudi veruju u čudne stvari

is that we have things, on a simple level,

je da imamo stvari na jednostavnijem nivou.

and then I'll go to more serious ones.

A onda ću preći na ozbiljnije.

Like, we have a tendency to see faces.

Na primer,težimo da vidimo lica.

This is the face on Mars.

Ovo je lice na Marsu koje je bilo--

In 1976, where there was a whole movement to get NASA to photograph that area

1976. godine,kada je postojao pokret koji je hteo da NASA

fotografiše tu regiju jer su ljudi mislili

because people thought this was monumental architecture made by Martians.

da je ovo monumentalna arhitektura koju su napravili Marsovci.

Here's the close-up of it from 2001.

Ipak,kako se ispostavlja-- evo ga njegov bliži snimak iz 2001.

If you squint, you can still see the face.

Ako žmirkate,i dalje možete da vidite lice.

And when you're squinting,

I kada žmirkate,ono što radite je

you're turning that from fine-grain to coarse-grain,

da ga pretvarate iz lepo definisanog u grubo definisanog.

so you're reducing the quality of your data.

I tako,smanjujete kvalitet svojih podataka.

And if I didn't tell you what to look for, you'd still see the face,

I da vam nisam rekao šta da tražite,opet biste videli lice,

because we're programmed by evolution to see faces.

jer smo isprogramirani evolucijom da vidimo lica.

Faces are important for us socially.

Lica su nam socijalno bitna.

And of course, happy faces, faces of all kinds are easy to see.

I naravno,srećna lica.

Lica svih vrsta je lako videti.

You see the happy face on Mars, there.

(Smeh)

Možete videti srećno lice na Marsu,ovde.

(Laughter)

If astronomers were frogs, perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.

Da su astronomi žabe možda bi videli Kermita Žapca.

Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.

Vidite li ga tu?

Or if geologists were elephants?

Male žablje noge.

Ili da su geolozi slonovi?

Religious iconography.

Religijska ikonografija.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.

Otkriveno od strane pekara is Tenesija 1996.

He charged five bucks a head to come see the nun bun

Naplaćivao je 5 dolara po osobi koje su mogle da vide kaluđericu-zemičku

till he got a cease-and-desist from Mother Teresa's lawyer.

dok ga advokati Majke Tereze nisu naterali da prestane.

Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,

Ovo je Naša Gospa od Gvadalupe i Naša Gospa od Vatsonvil,dole niz ulicu.

or is it up the street from here?

Ili to uz ulicu odavde?

Tree bark is particularly good because it's nice and grainy, branchy,

Stablo je naročito dobro jer je lepo i hrapavo,granato,

black-and-white splotchy and you can get the pattern-seeking --

izmrljano crno-belom bojom i možete da tražite oblike--

humans are pattern-seeking animals.

ljudi su životinje koje traže oblike.

Here's the Virgin Mary on the side of a glass window in Sao Paulo.

Evo je Devica Marija na prozoru u Sao Paulu.

Here's when the Virgin Mary made her appearance on a cheese sandwich --

Sad,ovde se Devica Marija pojavila na sandviču od sira--

koji sam držao u kazinu u Las Vegasu,

which I got to actually hold in a Las Vegas casino --

of course, this being America.

naravno,jer to je Amerika.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This casino paid $28,500 on eBay for the cheese sandwich.

Ovaj kazino je platio 28,500 dolara na eBay-u za ovaj sendvič.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But who does it really look like? The Virgin Mary?

Ali na koga stvarno liči,Devicu Mariju?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It has that sort of puckered lips, 1940s-era look.

Ima napućene usne,izgled 1940-ih.

Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.

Devica Marija u Klirvateru,Floridi.

I actually went to see this one.

Išao sam da vidim ovo.

There was a lot of people there.

Bilo je puno ljudi tamo--vernici su došli u svojim--

The faithful come in their wheelchairs and crutches, and so on.

kolicima i štakama,i tako dalje.

We went down and investigated.

I otišli smo dole,da istražimo.

Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins, me and The Amazing Randi,

Da vam dam predstavu o veličini--to je Dokins,ja i Neverovatni Rendi,

next to this two, two and a half story-sized image.

pored ove slike veličine 2 i po sprata.

All these candles, thousands of candles people had lit in tribute to this.

Sve ove sveće,toliko hiljade sveća su ljudi upalili u čast ovome.

So we walked around the backside, to see what was going on.

Onda smo otišli iza,da vidimo šta se tamo događa,

It turns out wherever there's a sprinkler head and a palm tree,

kad se ispostavilo da ako imate prskalicu i palmu,

you get the effect.

dobijate taj efekat.

Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside, which they started to wipe off.

Evo je Devica Marija od iza,koju su počeli da brišu.

I guess you can only have one miracle per building.

Pretpostavljam da možete da imate samo jedno čudo po zgradi.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So is it really a miracle of Mary, or is it a miracle of Marge?

Onda da li je to stvarno čudo Marije ili Mardž?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And now I'm going to finish up with another example of this,

I onda ću završiti sa još jednim primerom

with auditory illusions.

sa zvukom--zvučnim iluzijama.

There's this film, "White Noise," with Michael Keaton,

Postoji jedan film,'Beli Zvuk',

sa Majklom Kitonom o razgovaranju s mrtvima.

about the dead talking back to us.

By the way, the whole business of talking to the dead is not that big a deal.

I ovaj ceo biznis pričanja s mrtvima,nije neka velika stvar.

Kako izgleda,svako to može da radi.

Anybody can do it, turns out.

It's getting the dead to talk back that's the really hard part.

Naterati mrtve da odgovaraju je ustvari težak deo.

(Smeh)

(Laughter)

Naime,u ovom slučaju ove poruke su sakrivene u elektronskom fenomenu.

In this case, supposedly, these messages are hidden in electronic phenomena.

There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page where I downloaded this stuff.

Postoji web stranica ReverseSpeech.com (reverse speech=obrnuti govor) sa koje sam skinuo ovu stvar.

This is the most famous one of all of these.

Evo ga od napred--ovo je najpoznatiji od svih.

Here's the forward version of the very famous song.

Evo je verzija od napred veoma poznate pesme.

(Music with lyrics)

If there's a bustle in your hedgerow don't be alarmed now.

It's just a spring clean for the May Queen.

Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run,

There's still time to change the road you're on.

(Music ends)

Couldn't you just listen to that all day?

Uf,da li ne biste slušali ovo po ceo dan?

(Smeh)

All right, here it is backwards,

U redu,evo ga od nazad,

and see if you can hear the hidden messages that are supposedly in there.

i vidite ako možete da nađete skrivene poruke koje su navodno tu.

(Music with unintelligible lyrics)

(Lyrics) Satan!

(Unintelligible lyrics continue)

What did you get? Audience: Satan!

Šta ste čuli?

Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".

(Publika:Sotona.)

Now, I'll prime the auditory part of your brain

Sotona?Ok,onda,bar imamo Sotonu.

to tell you what you're supposed to hear, and then hear it again.

Sada,nateraću vaš auditorni deo mozga

da vam kaže šta biste trebalo da čujete,i onda da ga čujete opet.

(Music with lyrics)

(Music ends)

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

You can't miss it when I tell you what's there.

Ne može vam promaći kada vam kažem šta je tu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I'm going to just end with a positive, nice little story.

U redu,završiću sa jednom pozitivnom,lepom,malom pričom

o--Skeptici je neprofitna obrazovna organizacija.

The Skeptics is a nonprofit educational organization.

We're always looking for little good things that people do.

Uvek tražimo male,dobre stvari koje ljudi rade.

And in England, there's a pop singer.

I u Engleskoj,postoji jedna pop pevačica.

One of the top popular singers in England today, Katie Melua.

Veoma--jedna od najpopularnijih pevačica današnjice u Engleskoj,Kejti Melua.

And she wrote a beautiful song.

I napisala je prelepu pesmu.

It was in the top five in 2005, called, "Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."

Bila je u prvih pet 2005-e,koja se zove 'Devet miliona bicikala u Pekingu.'

It's a love story -- she's sort of the Norah Jones of the UK --

To je ljubavna priča--ona je kao Nora Džons Velike Britanije--

about how she much loves her guy,

o tome kako ona mnogo voli svog dečka,

and compared to nine million bicycles, and so forth.

i upoređuje sa 9 miliona bicikala,i tako dalje.

And she has this one passage here.

I ima ovaj pasus ovde.

(Music)

(Lyrics) We are 12 billion light-years from the edge

♫ Mi smo 12 milijarde svetlosnih godina od ivice♫

♫ To se pretpostavlja♫

That's a guess,

No one can ever say it's true,

♫ Niko ne može da ikada kaže da je to istina♫

But I know that I will always be with you.

♫ Ali znam da ću uvek biti s tobom♫

Baš lepo.

Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice. At least she got it close.

Bar je bila blizu.

In America it'd be, "We're 6,000 light years from the edge."

U Americi bi bilo 'Mi smo 6,000 svetlosnih godina od ivice.'

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle physicist now turned science educator,

Ali moj prijatelj,Sajmon Sin,koji se bavi fizikom elementarnih čestica,sada već naučnim obrazovanjem,

who wrote the book "The Big Bang," and so on,

i napisao je knjigu 'Veliki Prasak' i tako dalje.

uses every chance he gets to promote good science.

On koristi svaku priliku da promoviše dobru nauku.

And so he wrote an op-ed piece in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,

I tako,napisao je članak u Gardijanu o Kejtinoj pesmi,

in which he said, well, we know exactly how far from the edge.

u kojoj je rekao da znamo tačno koliko staro,koliko daleko od ivice.

You know, it's 13.7 billion light years, and it's not a guess.

Znate,to je 12--ima 13.7 milijarde svetlosnih godina, i to nije pretpostavka.

We know within precise error bars how close it is.

Znamo tačno koliko i sa kojim intervalima greške je blizu.

So we can say, although not absolutely true, it's pretty close to being true.

I tako,možemo reći,iako nije apsolutno tačno,da smo baš blizu.

And, to his credit, Katie called him up after this op-ed piece came out, and said,

I,njegovom zaslugom,Kejti ga je pozvala nakon što je njegov članak izašao.

I rekla,'Veoma sam posramljena.

"I'm so embarrassed. I was in the astronomy club.

Bila sam član kluba astronomije,i trebalo je da znam bolje.'

I should've known better."

And she re-cut the song.

I prepravila je pesmu.

So I will end with the new version.

I završiću sa novom verzijom.

(Music with lyrics)

♫ Mi smo 13.7 milijardi svetlosnih godina♫

We are 13.7 billion light years

from the edge of the observable universe.

♫ od ivice posmatranog svemira♫

♫ To je dobra procena sa dobro definisanim intervalima greške♫

That's a good estimate with well-defined error bars.

♫ I sa dostupnim informacijama♫

And with the available information,

♫ Prognoziram da ću uvek biti s tobom♫

I predict that I will always be with you.

(Laughter)

(Aplauz)

How cool is that?

Koliko je ovo kul?

(Applause)

(Aplauz)