Why people believe weird things | Michael Shermer

3,040,361 views ・ 2008-04-15

TED


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Prevoditelj: Zdenko Simic Recezent: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG
00:25
I'm Michael Shermer, director of the Skeptics Society,
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Ej, ja sam Michael Shermer, direktor Društva skeptičnih,
00:27
publisher of "Skeptic" magazine.
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izdavač magazina Skeptik.
00:29
We investigate claims of the paranormal,
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Istražujemo tvrdnje o paranormalnom, kvazi-znanosti,
00:31
pseudo-science, fringe groups and cults, and claims of all kinds between,
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i marginalnih grupa i kultova te svih vrsta rubnih tvrdnji --
00:34
science and pseudo-science and non-science and junk science,
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znanosti i kvazi-znanosti i ne-znanosti i otpada od znanosti,
00:37
voodoo science, pathological science, bad science, non-science,
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vudu znanosti, patološkoj znanosti, lošoj znanosti, ne-znanosti
00:41
and plain old non-sense.
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i obične stare besmislenosti.
00:42
And unless you've been on Mars recently,
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I osim ako niste skoro bili na Marsu,
00:44
you know there's a lot of that out there.
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znate da toga ima dosta vani.
00:46
Some people call us debunkers, which is kind of a negative term.
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Neki ljudi nas zovu razotkrivačima, što je neka vrsta negativnog naziva.
00:49
But let's face it, there's a lot of bunk.
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Ali budimo realni -- puno je toga pokrivenoga,
00:52
We are like the bunko squads of the police departments out there --
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i mi kao odred policijske uprave za tajnovito, ispiremo.
00:55
well, we're sort of like the Ralph Naders of bad ideas,
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Dakle, mi smo kao Ralph Naders loših ideja --
00:59
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:00
trying to replace bad ideas with good ideas.
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-- pokušavajći zamijeniti loše ideje s dobrim idejama.
01:03
I'll show you an example of a bad idea.
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Pokazati ću vam primjer loše ideje.
01:04
I brought this with me,
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Donio sam ovo sa sobom.
01:06
this was given to us by NBC Dateline to test.
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Ovo su nam dali s programa NBC Dateline na testiranje.
01:10
It's produced by the Quadro Corporation of West Virginia.
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To je -- to je proizvela Quadro Corporation iz Zapadne Virginia-e.
01:13
It's called the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
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Zove se Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod.
01:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:17
This was being sold to high-school administrators for $900 apiece.
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Ovo se prodavalo ravnateljima srednjih škola za 900 dolara po komadu.
01:23
It's a piece of plastic with a Radio Shack antenna attached to it.
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To je komad plastike s običnom antenom dodanom na nju.
01:27
You could dowse for all sorts of things,
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Možete otkrivati sve moguće stvari, ali ovaj
01:29
but this particular one was built to dowse for marijuana
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je napravljen za otkrivanje marihuane u ormarićima učenika.
01:32
in students' lockers.
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01:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:36
So the way it works is you go down the hallway,
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Dakle način na koji to radi je, idete kroz hodnik i vidite ako
01:40
and you see if it tilts toward a particular locker,
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skreće prema nekom ormariću, i onda otvorite ormarić.
01:43
and then you open the locker.
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01:44
So it looks something like this.
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Dakle to izgleda otprilike ovako.
01:46
I'll show you.
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Pokazat ću vam.
01:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:50
Well, it has kind of a right-leaning bias.
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Ne, to -- u redu, ima nekako naginjanje na desno.
Dakle, pokazat ću vam -- u redu, ovo je znanost, provest ćemo kontrolirani eksperiment.
01:53
Well, this is science, so we'll do a controlled experiment.
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Ići će sigurno u ovom smjeru.
01:56
It'll go this way for sure.
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01:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:01
Sir, do you want to empty your pockets, please, sir?
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Gospodine, hoćete isprazniti vaše džepove. Molim vas, gospodine?
02:04
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:06
So the question was, can it actually find marijuana in students' lockers?
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Znači pitanje je bilo, može li to stvarno naći marihuanu u učeničkim ormarićima?
02:09
And the answer is, if you open enough of them, yes.
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I odgovor je, ako ih dovoljno otvorite -- da.
02:12
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:13
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
02:15
But in science, we have to keep track of the misses, not just the hits.
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Ali u znanosti, moramo pratiti promašaje, ne samo pogotke.
02:18
And that's probably the key lesson to my short talk here:
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A to je vjerovatno ključna lekcija mog kratkog govora ovdje, je da
02:21
This is how psychics work, astrologers, tarot card readers and so on.
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tako rade vidovnjaci, astrolozi, i čitači tarot karata i tako dalje.
02:25
People remember the hits and forget the misses.
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Ljudi pamte pogotke; oni zaboravljaju promašaje.
02:27
In science, we keep the whole database,
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U znanosti moramo čuvati cijelu bazu podataka,
02:29
and look to see if the number of hits somehow stands out
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i gledati ako se broj pogodaka nekako ističe
02:32
from the total number you'd expect by chance.
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od ukupnog broja koji biste očekivali slučajno.
02:34
In this case, we tested it.
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U ovom slučaju smo to testirali.
02:35
We had two opaque boxes:
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Imali smo dvije neprozirne kutije,
02:37
one with government-approved THC marijuana, and one with nothing.
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jednu s THC marihuanom odobrenom od vlasti, i jednu praznu.
02:41
And it got it 50 percent of the time --
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I pogodilo je u 50 posto slučajeva --
02:42
(Laughter)
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-- što je točno koliko bi očekivali s modelom bacanja novčića.
02:44
which is exactly what you'd expect with a coin-flip model.
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02:47
So that's just a fun little example here of the sorts of things we do.
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Dakle to je samo mali zabavni primjer vrste onog čime se mi bavimo.
Skeptic izlazi jednom u kvartalu.
02:51
"Skeptic" is the quarterly publication. Each one has a particular theme.
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Svaki ima određenu temu, poput ovoga koji je o budućnosti inteligencije.
02:54
This one is on the future of intelligence.
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02:56
Are people getting smarter or dumber?
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Postaju li ljudi pametniji ili gluplji?
02:58
I have an opinion of this myself because of the business I'm in,
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Ja imam mišljenje o ovome osobno zbog posla kojim se bavim.
03:01
but in fact, people, it turns out, are getting smarter.
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Ali, uistinu, ljudi, ispada, postaju pametniji.
Tri IQ boda za 10 godina, idemo gore.
03:04
Three IQ points per 10 years, going up.
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03:07
Sort of an interesting thing.
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Na neki način zanimljiva stvar.
03:08
With science, don't think of skepticism as a thing, or science as a thing.
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Sa znanosti, ne mislite o skepticizmu kao stvari čak ili čak o znanosti kao stvari.
03:12
Are science and religion compatible?
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Jesu li znanost i religija kompatibilne?
03:14
It's like, are science and plumbing compatible?
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To je kao, jesu li znanost i vodoinstalerstvo kompatibilni?
03:16
They're just two different things.
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One -- to su samo dvije različite stvari.
03:17
Science is not a thing. It's a verb.
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Znanost nije stvar. To je glagol.
03:19
It's a way of thinking about things.
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To je način razmišljanja o stvarima.
03:21
It's a way of looking for natural explanations for all phenomena.
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To je način traženja prirodnih objašnjenja za sve fenomene.
03:24
I mean, what's more likely:
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Mislim, što je vjerojatnije --
03:25
that extraterrestrial intelligences or multi-dimensional beings
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da vanzemaljci ili višedimenzionalna stvorenja putuju preko
03:29
travel across vast distances of interstellar space
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ogromnih udaljnosti međuzvjezdanog svemira da ostave krug u žitu
03:31
to leave a crop circle in Farmer Bob's field in Puckerbrush, Kansas
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u polju Farmera Boba u Puckerbrushu, Kansasa da promovira skeptic.com, naše web stranice?
03:35
to promote skeptic.com, our web page?
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03:36
Or is it more likely that a reader of "Skeptic" did this with Photoshop?
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Ili je vjerojatnije da je neki čitatelj Skeptica uradio to Photoshopom?
03:41
And in all cases we have to ask --
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I u svim slučajevima moramo se pitati --
03:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:44
What's the more likely explanation?
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-- koje je vjerojatnije objašnjenje?
03:47
Before we say something is out of this world,
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I prije nego što kažemo da nešto potječe izvan ovog svijeta,
03:49
we should first make sure that it's not in this world.
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trebali bi prvo biti sigurnim da to nije na ovom svetu.
03:51
What's more likely:
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Što je vjerojatnije --
03:53
that Arnold had extraterrestrial help in his run for the governorship,
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da je Arnold imao malu vanzemaljsku pomoć u izboru za guvernera?
03:56
or that the "World Weekly News" makes stuff up?
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Ili da World Weekly News izmišlja stvari?
03:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:00
The same theme is expressed nicely here in this Sidney Harris cartoon.
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I dio toga -- ista tema je izražena lijepo
ovdje u ovoj karikaturi Sidney Harrisa.
04:05
For those of you in the back, it says here: "Then a miracle occurs.
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Za vas otraga, ovdje piše "I onda se dogodi čudo.
04:08
I think you need to be more explicit here in step two."
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Mislim kako moraš biti određeniji ovdje u koraku dva."
04:11
This single slide completely dismantles the intelligent design arguments.
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Ovaj jedan slajd kompletno uništava argumente inteligentnog dizajna.
04:15
There's nothing more to it than that.
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Nema u tome ništa više osim toga.
04:17
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
04:18
You can say a miracle occurs,
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Možete reći da se čuda događaju.
04:19
it's just that it doesn't explain anything or offer anything.
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Samo to ne objašnjava ništa.
04:22
There's nothing to test.
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Ne nudi ništa. Nema ničega za testiranje.
04:24
It's the end of the conversation for intelligent design creationists.
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Ovo je kraj razgovora za kreatore inteligentnog dizajna.
04:27
And it's true, scientists sometimes throw terms out as linguistic place fillers --
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Gdje se -- i točno je, znanstvenici ponekad izbace termine da
popune mjesta u rečenici -- tamna energija ili tamna materija ili tako nešto.
04:32
dark energy or dark matter, something like that --
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04:34
until we figure out what it is, we'll call it this.
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Dok ne shvatimo što je to, samo ćemo ju zvati tako.
04:37
It's the beginning of the causal chain for science.
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Ovo je početak uzročnog lanca za znanost.
Za kreatore inteligentnog dizajna, ovo je kraj lanca.
04:40
For intelligent design creationists, it's the end of the chain.
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I opet, možemo se pitati ovo -- što je verovatnije --
04:44
So again, we can ask this: what's more likely?
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04:46
Are UFOs alien spaceships, or perceptual cognitive mistakes, or even fakes?
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jesu li NLO-i vanzemaljski svemirski brodovi ili perceptivne kognitivne greške, ili čak lažnjaci?
04:50
This is a UFO shot from my house in Altadena, California,
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Ovo je NLO snimak iz moje kuće u Atladenai, California,
04:54
looking down over Pasadena.
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nadgledajući Pasadenau.
04:56
And if it looks a lot like a Buick hubcap, it's because it is.
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I ako dosta izgleda kao ratkapa Buicka, to je zato što je.
04:59
You don't even need Photoshop or high-tech equipment,
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Ne treba vam ni Photoshop, ne treba vam oprema visoke tehnologije,
05:02
you don't need computers.
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ne trebaju vam računala.
05:03
This was shot with a throwaway Kodak Instamatic camera.
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Ovo je snimak s jednokratnom Kodak Instamatik kamerom.
05:07
You just have somebody off on the side with a hubcap ready to go.
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Jednostavno imate nekog sa strane spremnog da krene s ratkapom.
05:10
Camera's ready -- that's it.
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Kamera spremna -- to je to.
05:12
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:13
So, although it's possible that most of these things are fake
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Dakle, iako je moguće da je većina ovih stvari lažna
05:17
or illusions or so on, and that some of them are real,
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ili iluzije i tako dalje i da su neke od njih stvarne,
05:20
it's more likely that all of them are fake, like the crop circles.
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vjerojatnije je da su sve lažne, kao i krugovi u polju.
05:23
On a more serious note, in all of science we're looking for a balance
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S puno ozbiljnije strane, u cijeloj znanosti tražimo ravnotežu
05:27
between data and theory.
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između podataka i teorije.
05:29
In the case of Galileo, he had two problems
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U Galilejevom slučaju, on je imao dva problema
05:33
when he turned his telescope to Saturn.
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kada je okrenuo svoj teleskop prema Saturnu.
05:35
First of all, there was no theory of planetary rings.
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Najprije, nije postojala teorija o planetarnim prstenovima.
05:38
Second of all, his data was grainy and fuzzy,
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I napokon, njegovi podaci su bili zrnati i zbrkani,
05:40
and he couldn't quite make out what he was looking at.
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i nije baš mogao shvati što je on to točno gledao.
05:43
So he wrote that he had seen --
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I onda je on napisao da je vidio --
05:45
"I have observed that the furthest planet has three bodies."
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"Opazio sam kako najudaljeniji planet ima tri tijela."
05:48
And this is what he ended up concluding that he saw.
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I to je što je on na kraju zaključio da je vidio.
05:51
So without a theory of planetary rings and with only grainy data,
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Dakle bez teorije o planetarnim prstenovima i sa zrnatim podacima,
05:55
you can't have a good theory.
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ne možete imati dobru teoriju.
05:56
It wasn't solved until 1655.
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I ovo nije bilo riješeno do 1655.
05:58
This is Christiaan Huygens's book that catalogs all the mistakes
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Ovo je knjiga Christiaan Huygensa u kojoj je katalogizirao sve greške
06:01
people made trying to figure out what was going on with Saturn.
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koje su ljudi pravili pokušavajući da shvate šta se događa sa Saturnom.
06:04
It wasn't till Huygens had two things:
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I nije sve dok -- Hojgens nije imao dvije stvari.
06:06
He had a good theory of planetary rings and how the solar system operated,
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Imao je dobru teoriju o planetarnim prstenovima i kako solarni sustav radi.
06:10
and he had better telescopic, more fine-grain data
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I onda, imao je bolji teleskop, više sitnozrnih podataka
06:13
in which he could figure out that as the Earth is going around faster --
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u kojima je shvatio da dok Zemlja kruži brže --
06:17
according to Kepler's Laws -- than Saturn, then we catch up with it.
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po Keplerovim zakonima -- od Saturna, onda se mi uhvatimo s njim.
06:20
And we see the angles of the rings at different angles, there.
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I vidimo kutove prstenova pod različitim kutovima, ovdje.
06:24
And that, in fact, turns out to be true.
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I to se, zapravo, ispostavilo kao istinito.
06:26
The problem with having a theory is that it may be loaded with cognitive biases.
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Problemi s teorijom koju imamo
je da vaša teorija može biti prepuna kognitivnih predrasuda.
06:31
So one of the problems of explaining why people believe weird things
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Dakle, jedan od problema objašnjavanja zašto ljudi vjeruju u čudne stvari
06:34
is that we have things, on a simple level,
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je da mi imamo stvari na jednostavnoj razini.
06:36
and then I'll go to more serious ones.
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A onda ću preći na ozbiljnije.
06:38
Like, we have a tendency to see faces.
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Na primjer, mi smo skloni vidjeti lica.
06:40
This is the face on Mars.
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Ovo je lice na Marsu koje je bilo --
06:42
In 1976, where there was a whole movement to get NASA to photograph that area
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1976., kada je postojao cijeli pokret koji je htio da NASA
fotografira to područje jer su ljudi mislili
06:47
because people thought this was monumental architecture made by Martians.
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da je to monumentalna arhitektura koju su napravili Marsijanci.
06:50
Here's the close-up of it from 2001.
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Ipak, kako se ispostavlja -- evo ga bliža snimka iz 2001.
06:53
If you squint, you can still see the face.
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Ako žmirkate, i dalje možete vidjeti lice.
06:56
And when you're squinting,
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I kada žmirkate, ono što radite je
06:57
you're turning that from fine-grain to coarse-grain,
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da ga pretvarate iz fino zrnatog u grubo zrnato.
07:00
so you're reducing the quality of your data.
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I tako, smanjujete kvalitetu svojih podataka.
07:02
And if I didn't tell you what to look for, you'd still see the face,
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I da vam ja nisam rekao šta da tražite, opet biste vidjeli lice,
07:06
because we're programmed by evolution to see faces.
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jer smo isprogramirani evolucijom da vidimo lica.
07:08
Faces are important for us socially.
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Lica su nam socijalno bitna.
07:10
And of course, happy faces, faces of all kinds are easy to see.
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I naravno, sretna lica.
Lica svih vrsta je lako vidjeti.
07:14
You see the happy face on Mars, there.
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(Smijeh)
Možete vidjeti sretno lice na Marsu, ovdje.
07:16
(Laughter)
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07:17
If astronomers were frogs, perhaps they'd see Kermit the Frog.
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Kada bi astronomi bili žabe možda bi vidjeli žapca Kermita .
07:20
Do you see him there? Little froggy legs.
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Vidite li ga tu?
07:22
Or if geologists were elephants?
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Male žablje noge.
Ili da su geolozi slonovi?
07:25
Religious iconography.
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Religijska ikonografija.
07:29
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:31
Discovered by a Tennessee baker in 1996.
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Otkriveno od strane pekara is Tennesseea 1996.
07:34
He charged five bucks a head to come see the nun bun
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Naplaćivao je pet dolara po osobi da vide časnu sestru žemlju
07:36
till he got a cease-and-desist from Mother Teresa's lawyer.
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dok ga odvjetnici Majke Tereze nisu natjerali da prestane.
07:40
Here's Our Lady of Guadalupe and Our Lady of Watsonville, just down the street,
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Ovo je Naša Gospa od Guadalupe i Naša Gospa od Vatsonvilla, odmah niz ulicu.
07:44
or is it up the street from here?
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Ili je to uz ulicu odavde?
07:45
Tree bark is particularly good because it's nice and grainy, branchy,
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Stablo je naročito dobro jer je lijepo i hrapavo, granato,
07:49
black-and-white splotchy and you can get the pattern-seeking --
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izmrljano crno-bijelom bojom gdje možete tražiti oblike --
07:52
humans are pattern-seeking animals.
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ljudi su životinje koje traže oblike.
07:54
Here's the Virgin Mary on the side of a glass window in Sao Paulo.
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Evo je Djevica Marija na prozoru u Sao Paulou.
07:57
Here's when the Virgin Mary made her appearance on a cheese sandwich --
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Sad, ovdje se Djevica Marija pojavila na sandviču od sira --
koji sam zapravo držao u kasinu u Las Vegasu,
08:01
which I got to actually hold in a Las Vegas casino --
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08:03
of course, this being America.
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naravno, jer to ovo Amerika.
08:05
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:06
This casino paid $28,500 on eBay for the cheese sandwich.
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Ovaj kasino je platio 28,500 dolara na eBayu za ovaj sendvič.
08:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:13
But who does it really look like? The Virgin Mary?
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Ali na koga stvarno sliči, Djevicu Mariju?
08:15
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:17
It has that sort of puckered lips, 1940s-era look.
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Ima napućene usne, izgled 1940-ih.
08:21
Virgin Mary in Clearwater, Florida.
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Djevica Marija u Clearwater, Floridi.
08:23
I actually went to see this one.
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Išao sam zapravo vidjeti ovo.
08:25
There was a lot of people there.
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Bilo je puno ljudi tamo -- vjernici su došli da budu u svojim --
08:26
The faithful come in their wheelchairs and crutches, and so on.
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kolicima i štakama, i tako dalje.
08:31
We went down and investigated.
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I otišli smo dolje, istražiti.
08:33
Just to give you a size, that's Dawkins, me and The Amazing Randi,
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Da vam dam predstavu o veličini -- to je Dawkins, ja i Nevjerojatni Randi,
08:36
next to this two, two and a half story-sized image.
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pored ove slike veličine dva, dva i pol kata.
08:39
All these candles, thousands of candles people had lit in tribute to this.
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Sve te svijeće, tolike tisuće svijeća koje su ljudi upalili u čast tome.
08:42
So we walked around the backside, to see what was going on.
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Onda smo otišli iza, samo da vidimo šta se tamo događa,
08:45
It turns out wherever there's a sprinkler head and a palm tree,
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kad se ispostavilo da ako imate prskalicu i palmu,
08:48
you get the effect.
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dobijate taj efekt.
08:50
Here's the Virgin Mary on the backside, which they started to wipe off.
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Tu je Devica Marija od iza, koju su počeli brisati.
08:53
I guess you can only have one miracle per building.
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Pretpostavljam da možete imati samo jedno čudo po zgradi.
08:56
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:59
So is it really a miracle of Mary, or is it a miracle of Marge?
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Onda je li to stvarno čudo Marije ili Marge?
09:03
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:04
And now I'm going to finish up with another example of this,
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I završiti ću s još jednim primjerom
09:07
with auditory illusions.
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sa zvukom -- zvučnim iluzijama.
09:10
There's this film, "White Noise," with Michael Keaton,
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Postoji jedan film, "Bijeli zvuk",
s Michaelom Keatonom o mrtvima koji nam govore.
09:13
about the dead talking back to us.
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09:15
By the way, the whole business of talking to the dead is not that big a deal.
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Usput, taj cijeli posao pričanja s mrtvima, nije neka velika stvar.
Kako izgleda, svatko to može raditi.
09:19
Anybody can do it, turns out.
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09:20
It's getting the dead to talk back that's the really hard part.
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Natjerati mrtve da odgovaraju je ustvari teški dio.
(Smijeh)
09:23
(Laughter)
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Naime, u ovom slučaju te poruke su sakrivene u elektronskom fenomenu.
09:25
In this case, supposedly, these messages are hidden in electronic phenomena.
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09:28
There's a ReverseSpeech.com web page where I downloaded this stuff.
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Postoji web stranica ReverseSpeech.com (obrnuti govor) s koje sam skinuo ovu stvar.
09:32
This is the most famous one of all of these.
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Evo ga od naprijed -- ovo je najpoznatiji od svih.
09:35
Here's the forward version of the very famous song.
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Evo verzija od naprijed jako poznate pjesme.
09:38
(Music with lyrics)
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09:39
If there's a bustle in your hedgerow don't be alarmed now.
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09:45
It's just a spring clean for the May Queen.
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09:50
Yes, there are two paths you can go by, but in the long run,
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09:56
There's still time to change the road you're on.
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10:01
(Music ends)
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10:03
Couldn't you just listen to that all day?
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Ooo, ne biste li slušali ovo po cijeli dan?
(Smijeh)
10:06
All right, here it is backwards,
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U redu, evo ga od unazad,
10:07
and see if you can hear the hidden messages that are supposedly in there.
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i vidite možete li naći skrivene poruke koje su navodno tu.
10:12
(Music with unintelligible lyrics)
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10:26
(Lyrics) Satan!
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10:27
(Unintelligible lyrics continue)
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10:41
What did you get? Audience: Satan!
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Što ste čuli?
10:43
Satan. OK, at least we got "Satan".
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(Publika: Sotonu.)
10:45
Now, I'll prime the auditory part of your brain
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Sotona? U redu, onda, barem imamo Sotonu.
10:47
to tell you what you're supposed to hear, and then hear it again.
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Sada, pripremit ću vaš auditorni dio mozga
da vam kaže što biste trebali čuti, i onda to poslušajte opet.
10:51
(Music with lyrics)
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11:17
(Music ends)
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11:18
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:20
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
11:26
You can't miss it when I tell you what's there.
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Ne može vam promaći kada vam kažem što je tu.
11:29
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:32
I'm going to just end with a positive, nice little story.
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U redu, završit ću s jednom pozitivnom, lijepom, malom pričom
o -- Skeptics je neprofitna obrazovna organizacija.
11:36
The Skeptics is a nonprofit educational organization.
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11:39
We're always looking for little good things that people do.
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Uvijek tražimo male, dobre stvari koje ljudi rade.
11:42
And in England, there's a pop singer.
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I u Engleskoj, postoji jedna pop pjevačica.
11:44
One of the top popular singers in England today, Katie Melua.
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Vrlo -- jedna od najpopularnijih pjevačica današnjice u Engleskoj, Katie Melua.
11:47
And she wrote a beautiful song.
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I ona je napisala prekrasnu pjesmu.
11:49
It was in the top five in 2005, called, "Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing."
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Bila je u prvih pet 2005., nazvana, "Devet milijuna bicikla u Pekingu."
11:55
It's a love story -- she's sort of the Norah Jones of the UK --
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To je ljubavna priča -- ona je kao Norah Jones Velike Britanije --
11:58
about how she much loves her guy,
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o tome kako ona jako voli svog dečka,
11:59
and compared to nine million bicycles, and so forth.
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i upoređuje ga s devet milijuna bicikla, i tako dalje.
12:02
And she has this one passage here.
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I ima ovaj pasus ovdje.
12:04
(Music)
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12:05
(Lyrics) We are 12 billion light-years from the edge
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♫ Mi smo 12 milijardi svjetlosnih godina od ruba ♫
♫ To je pretpostavka ♫
12:11
That's a guess,
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12:13
No one can ever say it's true,
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♫ Nitko ne može ikada reći kako je to istina ♫
12:17
But I know that I will always be with you.
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♫ Ali ja znam da ću uvijek biti s tobom ♫
Dakle, to je lijepo.
12:22
Michael Shermer: Well, that's nice. At least she got it close.
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Bar je bila blizu.
12:25
In America it'd be, "We're 6,000 light years from the edge."
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U Americi bi bilo, "Mi smo 6.000 svjetlosnih godina od ruba."
12:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:29
But my friend, Simon Singh, the particle physicist now turned science educator,
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Ali moj prijatelj, Simon Singh, koji se bavi fizikom elementarnih čestica, sada je postao nastavnik znanosti,
12:33
who wrote the book "The Big Bang," and so on,
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i on je napisao knjigu "Veliki prasak" i tako dalje.
12:35
uses every chance he gets to promote good science.
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On koristi svaku priliku koju ima za promociju dobre znanosti.
12:38
And so he wrote an op-ed piece in "The Guardian" about Katie's song,
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I tako, on je napisao članak u Guardianu o Katienoj pesmi,
12:41
in which he said, well, we know exactly how far from the edge.
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u kojoj je rekao, dakle, da mi znamo točno koliko staro, koliko daleko od ruba.
12:46
You know, it's 13.7 billion light years, and it's not a guess.
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Znate, to je 12 -- ima 13,7 milijardi svjetlosnih godina, i to nije pretpostavka.
12:50
We know within precise error bars how close it is.
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Znamo tačno koliko unutar intervala greške koliko je blizu.
12:54
So we can say, although not absolutely true, it's pretty close to being true.
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I tako, mi možemo reći, iako ne apsolutno točno, da smo vrlo blizu istini.
12:58
And, to his credit, Katie called him up after this op-ed piece came out, and said,
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I, njegovom zaslugom, Katie ga je pozvala nakon što je njegov članak izašao.
I rekla, "Vrlo sam posramljena.
13:03
"I'm so embarrassed. I was in the astronomy club.
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Bila sam članica astronomskog kluba, i trebalo sam znati bolje."
13:05
I should've known better."
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13:06
And she re-cut the song.
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I prepravila je pjesmu.
13:08
So I will end with the new version.
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I ja ću završiti s novom verzijom.
13:10
(Music with lyrics)
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♫ Mi smo 13.7 milijardi svjetlosnih godina ♫
13:11
We are 13.7 billion light years
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13:13
from the edge of the observable universe.
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♫ od ruba promotrivog svemira ♫
♫ To je dobra procjena s dobro definiranim intervalima greške ♫
13:17
That's a good estimate with well-defined error bars.
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♫ I s dostupnim informacijama ♫
13:21
And with the available information,
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♫ Predviđam da ću uvijek biti s tobom ♫
13:24
I predict that I will always be with you.
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13:28
(Laughter)
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(Pljesak)
13:29
How cool is that?
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Kako je ovo fora?
13:30
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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