How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

Prevodilac: Tijana Ćopić Lektor: Ivana Korom

[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]

[Kako možemo da kontrolišemo pandemiju korona virusa?]

[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]

[Govori infektolog Adam Kučarski]

[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]

[1. pitanje: Šta tačno znači obuzdati virus nakon njegovog izbijanja?]

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control

Obuzdavanje je ulaganje napora u kontrolu

very much on the cases and their contacts.

samih slučajeva, kao i onih koji su s njima došli u dodir.

So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,

Znači ne remeti se šira populacija,

you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,

novi slučaj se primi, stavi se u izolaciju,

you work out who they've come into contact with,

sazna se s kim je došao u dodir,

who's potentially these opportunities for exposure

ko je potencijalno bio izložen,

and then you can follow up those people,

onda se stanje tih osoba može pratiti,

maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.

možda se stave u karantin, kako bi bili sigurni da neće doći do daljeg prenosa.

So it's a very focused, targeted method,

To je vrlo fokusiran metod sa tačnim ciljem,

and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.

za SARS je izuzetno pomogao.

But I think for this infection,

Ali za ovu infekciju,

because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,

pošto su neki slučajevi propušteni ili nisu ni primećeni,

you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.

mora da se uhvati ogroman broj ljudi koji predstavljaju rizik.

If a few slip through the net,

Ako se propusti makar nekoliko,

potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.

potencijalno bi moglo da dođe do izbijanja virusa.

[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]

[2. pitanje: Ako obuzdavanje nije dovoljno, šta je sledeći korak?]

In that respect,

U tom slučaju,

it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.

moralo bi doći do ogromnih promena u našim društvenim interakcijama.

And so that would require,

Ovo bi zahtevalo da,

of the opportunities that could spread the virus

što se tiče prilika u kojima bi se virus mogao proširiti,

so these kind of close contacts,

znači bliski kontakti s drugima,

everybody in the population, on average,

cela populacija mora, prosečno,

will be needing to reduce those interactions

da smanji takve interakcije

potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.

za jedno dve trećine da bi se sve držalo pod kontrolom.

That might be through working from home,

To bi se moglo ostvariti radom od kuće,

from changing lifestyle

promenom načina života

and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.

i izbegavanjem prepunih prostorija i restorana.

And of course, these measures, things like school closures,

I naravno, mere kao što su zatvaranje škola,

and other things that just attempt to reduce

i druge mere koje pokušavaju da smanje

the social mixing of a population.

društveno mešanje populacije.

[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]

[3. pitanje: Na koje sve rizike ljudi treba da obraćaju pažnju?]

It's not just whose hand you shake,

Nije u pitanju samo to s kim se rukujete,

it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.

već i s kim će ta osoba kasnije da se rukuje.

And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,

Mislim da moramo da mislimo i na manje bitne korake,

that you might think you have low risk

možda mislite da ste vi manje podložni

and you're in a younger group,

i u mlađoj ste starosnoj grupi,

but you're often going to be a very short step away

ali ćete vrlo često biti nadomak

from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.

nekoga za koga bi to bilo pogubno.

And I think we really need to be socially minded

I stvarno mislim da treba da budemo društveno svesni,

and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,

i svesni toga da bi ovo mogla biti neizmerna promena u ponašanju,

but it needs to be

ali da je to neophodno

to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.

da bi se ublažio mogući udarac koji nam preti.

[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]

[4. pitanje: Koliko bi ljudi trebalo da budu udaljeni jedni od drugih? ]

I think it's hard to pin down exactly,

Milslim da je to teško odrediti,

but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence

ali imajte u vidu da nema još konkretnih dokaza

that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --

da se ovo prenosi preko vazduha i da ima širok domet,

it's reasonably short distances.

odnosi se na kratke razdaljine.

I don't think it's the case

Ne mislim da će,

that you're sitting a few meters away from someone

ako sedite par metara udaljeni od nekoga,

and the virus is somehow going to get across.

virus nekako da pređe na vas.

To se desi tokom bližih interakcija,

It's in closer interactions,

and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events

zato se prenošenje toliko često

occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.

javlja tokom jela ili među vrlo bliskim grupama ljudi.

Because if you imagine

Možete da zamislite,

that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces

tako virus možete preneti na neku površinu

and onto hands and onto faces,

pa na nečije ruke i na nečije lice

and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.

i baš na ovakve situacije moramo više da mislimo.

[Question 5: What kind of protective measures

[5. pitanje: Kakve mere bezbednosti

should countries put in place?]

bi zemlje trebalo da uvedu?]

I think that's what people are trying to piece together,

Mislim da je to ono što ljudi pokušavaju da skopčaju,

first in terms of what works.

šta je tačno delotvorno.

It's only really in the last sort of few weeks

Tek smo u poslednjih nekoliko nedelja

we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable

dobili osećaj da ovo možemo da kontrolišemo

with this extent of interventions,

sa postojećim intervencijama,

but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,

ali naravno, ne može svaka zemlja da uradi ono što je Kina uradila,

some of these measures

neke od ovih mera

incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden

nose sa sobom ogroman društveni, ekonomski, i psihološki teret

on populations.

za celu populaciju.

And of course, there's the time limit.

I naravno, postoji vremensko ograničenje.

In China, they've had them in for six weeks,

U Kini ljudi nisu izlazili napolje šest nedelja,

it's tough to maintain that,

tako nešto je teško održati,

so we need to think of these tradeoffs

moramo da mislimo na ovakve ustupke,

of all the things we can ask people to do,

na to šta sve možemo da tražimo od ljudi da urade,

what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

šta će zapravo imati najveći uticaj na smanjenje tog tereta.

[Za više informacija posetite: Centar za kontrolu i prevenciju bolesti]

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]

[World Health Organization]

[Svetska zdravstvena organizacija]