How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

274,474 views ・ 2020-03-16

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Prevodilac: Tijana Ćopić Lektor: Ivana Korom
00:12
[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]
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[Kako možemo da kontrolišemo pandemiju korona virusa?]
00:14
[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]
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[Govori infektolog Adam Kučarski]
00:17
[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]
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[1. pitanje: Šta tačno znači obuzdati virus nakon njegovog izbijanja?]
00:21
Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control
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Obuzdavanje je ulaganje napora u kontrolu
00:24
very much on the cases and their contacts.
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samih slučajeva, kao i onih koji su s njima došli u dodir.
00:27
So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,
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Znači ne remeti se šira populacija,
00:29
you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,
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novi slučaj se primi, stavi se u izolaciju,
00:32
you work out who they've come into contact with,
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sazna se s kim je došao u dodir,
00:34
who's potentially these opportunities for exposure
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ko je potencijalno bio izložen,
00:38
and then you can follow up those people,
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onda se stanje tih osoba može pratiti,
00:40
maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.
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možda se stave u karantin, kako bi bili sigurni da neće doći do daljeg prenosa.
00:43
So it's a very focused, targeted method,
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To je vrlo fokusiran metod sa tačnim ciljem,
00:46
and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.
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za SARS je izuzetno pomogao.
00:49
But I think for this infection,
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Ali za ovu infekciju,
00:51
because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,
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pošto su neki slučajevi propušteni ili nisu ni primećeni,
00:54
you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.
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mora da se uhvati ogroman broj ljudi koji predstavljaju rizik.
00:58
If a few slip through the net,
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Ako se propusti makar nekoliko,
00:59
potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.
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potencijalno bi moglo da dođe do izbijanja virusa.
01:01
[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]
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[2. pitanje: Ako obuzdavanje nije dovoljno, šta je sledeći korak?]
01:05
In that respect,
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U tom slučaju,
01:06
it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.
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moralo bi doći do ogromnih promena u našim društvenim interakcijama.
01:10
And so that would require,
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Ovo bi zahtevalo da,
01:12
of the opportunities that could spread the virus
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što se tiče prilika u kojima bi se virus mogao proširiti,
01:14
so these kind of close contacts,
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znači bliski kontakti s drugima,
01:16
everybody in the population, on average,
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cela populacija mora, prosečno,
01:18
will be needing to reduce those interactions
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da smanji takve interakcije
01:21
potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.
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za jedno dve trećine da bi se sve držalo pod kontrolom.
01:24
That might be through working from home,
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To bi se moglo ostvariti radom od kuće,
01:27
from changing lifestyle
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promenom načina života
01:28
and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.
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i izbegavanjem prepunih prostorija i restorana.
01:32
And of course, these measures, things like school closures,
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I naravno, mere kao što su zatvaranje škola,
01:35
and other things that just attempt to reduce
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i druge mere koje pokušavaju da smanje
01:37
the social mixing of a population.
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društveno mešanje populacije.
01:39
[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]
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[3. pitanje: Na koje sve rizike ljudi treba da obraćaju pažnju?]
01:43
It's not just whose hand you shake,
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Nije u pitanju samo to s kim se rukujete,
01:45
it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.
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već i s kim će ta osoba kasnije da se rukuje.
01:47
And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,
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Mislim da moramo da mislimo i na manje bitne korake,
01:50
that you might think you have low risk
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možda mislite da ste vi manje podložni
01:52
and you're in a younger group,
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i u mlađoj ste starosnoj grupi,
01:54
but you're often going to be a very short step away
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ali ćete vrlo često biti nadomak
01:57
from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.
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nekoga za koga bi to bilo pogubno.
02:00
And I think we really need to be socially minded
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I stvarno mislim da treba da budemo društveno svesni,
02:02
and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,
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i svesni toga da bi ovo mogla biti neizmerna promena u ponašanju,
02:06
but it needs to be
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ali da je to neophodno
02:07
to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.
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da bi se ublažio mogući udarac koji nam preti.
02:10
[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]
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[4. pitanje: Koliko bi ljudi trebalo da budu udaljeni jedni od drugih? ]
02:14
I think it's hard to pin down exactly,
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Milslim da je to teško odrediti,
02:16
but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence
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ali imajte u vidu da nema još konkretnih dokaza
02:19
that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --
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da se ovo prenosi preko vazduha i da ima širok domet,
02:22
it's reasonably short distances.
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odnosi se na kratke razdaljine.
02:23
I don't think it's the case
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Ne mislim da će,
02:25
that you're sitting a few meters away from someone
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ako sedite par metara udaljeni od nekoga,
02:28
and the virus is somehow going to get across.
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virus nekako da pređe na vas.
To se desi tokom bližih interakcija,
02:31
It's in closer interactions,
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02:32
and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events
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zato se prenošenje toliko često
02:35
occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.
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javlja tokom jela ili među vrlo bliskim grupama ljudi.
02:39
Because if you imagine
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Možete da zamislite,
02:40
that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces
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tako virus možete preneti na neku površinu
02:43
and onto hands and onto faces,
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pa na nečije ruke i na nečije lice
02:45
and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.
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i baš na ovakve situacije moramo više da mislimo.
02:49
[Question 5: What kind of protective measures
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[5. pitanje: Kakve mere bezbednosti
02:51
should countries put in place?]
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bi zemlje trebalo da uvedu?]
02:53
I think that's what people are trying to piece together,
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Mislim da je to ono što ljudi pokušavaju da skopčaju,
02:56
first in terms of what works.
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šta je tačno delotvorno.
02:58
It's only really in the last sort of few weeks
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Tek smo u poslednjih nekoliko nedelja
03:01
we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable
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dobili osećaj da ovo možemo da kontrolišemo
03:04
with this extent of interventions,
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sa postojećim intervencijama,
03:06
but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,
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ali naravno, ne može svaka zemlja da uradi ono što je Kina uradila,
03:09
some of these measures
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neke od ovih mera
03:10
incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden
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nose sa sobom ogroman društveni, ekonomski, i psihološki teret
03:14
on populations.
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za celu populaciju.
03:16
And of course, there's the time limit.
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I naravno, postoji vremensko ograničenje.
03:18
In China, they've had them in for six weeks,
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U Kini ljudi nisu izlazili napolje šest nedelja,
03:20
it's tough to maintain that,
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tako nešto je teško održati,
03:21
so we need to think of these tradeoffs
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moramo da mislimo na ovakve ustupke,
03:23
of all the things we can ask people to do,
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na to šta sve možemo da tražimo od ljudi da urade,
03:26
what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.
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šta će zapravo imati najveći uticaj na smanjenje tog tereta.
[Za više informacija posetite: Centar za kontrolu i prevenciju bolesti]
03:30
[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]
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03:33
[World Health Organization]
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[Svetska zdravstvena organizacija]
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