How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Chengrui Wang

[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]

〔我們要如何控制 冠狀病毒大流行？〕

[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]

〔由感染性疾病專家 亞當庫查斯基解說〕

[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]

〔問題一：就疾病爆發而言， 防疫是什麼意思？〕

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control

防疫這個想法是要把 你的努力都專注在控制上，

very much on the cases and their contacts.

非常專注在病例 和他們接觸的人身上。

So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,

這樣才不會擾亂到更廣的大眾，

you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,

有一個病例出現，就要把他隔離，

you work out who they've come into contact with,

想辦法找出他和哪些人接觸過，

who's potentially these opportunities for exposure

找出誰有暴露在病毒中的可能性，

and then you can follow up those people,

接著你就可以追蹤這些人，

maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.

也許將他們隔離，

確保不會再有進一步的傳播。

So it's a very focused, targeted method,

這是個非常專注、 目標明確的方法，

and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.

它對 SARS 的效果相當好。

But I think for this infection,

但對這次的感染，

because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,

因為有些病例不會 被發現或檢測出來，

you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.

你得要將相當多人 框列為有風險的人。

If a few slip through the net,

只要幾個人溜過防護網， 疾病很可能就會爆發。

potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.

[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]

〔如果防疫還不夠， 下一步是什麼？〕

In that respect,

在那方面，

it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.

就是要大大改變我們的社交互動。

And so that would require,

那就會需要，

of the opportunities that could spread the virus

那些有可能會散播病毒的機會，

so these kind of close contacts,

那些近距離接觸，

everybody in the population, on average,

平均而言，每個人

will be needing to reduce those interactions

都得把他們的那些互動

potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.

減少三分之二， 才能讓疾病受到控制。

That might be through working from home,

可能要在家工作，

from changing lifestyle

改變生活方式，

and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.

改變你去擁擠的地方 及吃飯場所的習慣。

And of course, these measures, things like school closures,

當然，這些手段，比如學校停課，

and other things that just attempt to reduce

以及其他手段，都只是在嘗試減少

the social mixing of a population.

大家社交群聚的機會。

[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]

〔問題三：我們需要大家 注意的風險是什麼？〕

It's not just whose hand you shake,

不只是你握過的手，

it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.

還有那個人接下來會去握誰的手。

And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,

我想，我們得要想想 這些第二級的步驟，

that you might think you have low risk

你可能認為你的風險不高，

and you're in a younger group,

且你是屬於較年輕的族群，

but you're often going to be a very short step away

但你通常和某位 將會被這病毒重創的人

from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.

只有短短一步的距離。

And I think we really need to be socially minded

我想，我們必須要 非常有社會意識，

and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,

我們的行為可能 會需要有很大的改變，

but it needs to be

但這是必要的，

to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.

這樣才能減少我們 可能面對的衝擊。

[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]

〔問題四：大家彼此之間 應該保持多遠的距離？〕

I think it's hard to pin down exactly,

我想，這很難說得準，但我認為

but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence

大家要記得一件事， 並沒有太多證據

顯示是氣溶膠傳染且會傳很遠——

that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --

傳播距離是很合理的短距離。

it's reasonably short distances.

I don't think it's the case

我並不認為

that you're sitting a few meters away from someone

你若是坐在距離某人 幾公尺的地方，

and the virus is somehow going to get across.

病毒會有辦法傳過去。

It's in closer interactions,

需要更近的互動，

and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events

我們目前知道有許多傳播事件

occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.

都和聚餐及非常緊密的團體有關。

Because if you imagine

各位可以想像，

that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces

在那些情況下就有可能 讓病毒留在表面上，

and onto hands and onto faces,

留在手上及臉上，

and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.

我們必須要多思考這些情況。

[Question 5: What kind of protective measures

〔問題五：各國應該 採取什麼保護措施？〕

should countries put in place?]

I think that's what people are trying to piece together,

我想，大家也正在找 這個問題的答案，

first in terms of what works.

先找出什麼方法行得通。

It's only really in the last sort of few weeks

也不過就在最近幾週，

we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable

我們會覺得用這種程度的干預，

with this extent of interventions,

就能控制疫情，

但，當然，並非所有國家 都能用中國的做法，

but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,

其中一有些措施

some of these measures

incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden

會造成人民很大的社會、

經濟、心理負擔。

on populations.

And of course, there's the time limit.

當然，是有時限的。

在中國，他們的病毒 肆虐了艱苦的六週，

In China, they've had them in for six weeks,

it's tough to maintain that,

我們必須要想想這些權衡，

so we need to think of these tradeoffs

of all the things we can ask people to do,

在我們能要求人民 去做的事情當中，

what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

有哪些會最能協助減輕那些負擔。

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]

〔若要了解更多，請前往： 疾病管制與預防中心〕

[World Health Organization]

〔世界衛生組織〕