How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

Translator: Yen Doran Reviewer: Nur Hidayah Mohd Zulkipli

[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]

[Bagaimana untuk kawal pandemik coronavirus?]

[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]

[Pakar penyakit berjangkit Adam Kucharski]

[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]

[Soalan 1: Apa maksud pembendungan dalam wabak?]

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control

Pembendungan ialah idea bahawa usaha difokuskan kepada kawalan

very much on the cases and their contacts.

kebanyakannya pada kes dan kontaknya.

So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,

Anda tidak mengganggu orang ramai,

you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,

anda terima satu kes baru, anda asingkannya,

you work out who they've come into contact with,

anda hitungkan kontak mereka,

who's potentially these opportunities for exposure

siapa yang berpotensi menjadi peluang pendedahan

and then you can follow up those people,

kemudian anda memantau mereka,

maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.

mungkin mengkuarantin mereka agar tiada penularan lanjutan.

So it's a very focused, targeted method,

Hal ini ialah kaedah bersasar yang berfokus,

and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.

amat berkesan sewaktu wabak SARS.

But I think for this infection,

Tapi bagi saya, untuk jangkitan ini,

because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,

kerana sesetengah kes dilepas pandang atau tak dikesan,

you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.

anda benar-benar perlu ambil kira sekumpulan besar orang berisiko.

If a few slip through the net,

Jika beberapa tidak dikesan,

potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.

Ia berpotensi untuk menjadi wabak.

[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]

[Soalan 2: Jika pembendungan tak cukup, apakah yang akan berlaku?]

In that respect,

Dalam hal ini,

it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.

ia tentang perubahan besar dalam interaksi sosial kita,

And so that would require,

maka ia memerlukan,

of the opportunities that could spread the virus

peluang untuk virus tersebar

so these kind of close contacts,

jenis kontak rapat ni,

everybody in the population, on average,

secara puratanya, setiap orang dalam populasi,

will be needing to reduce those interactions

perlu mengurangkan jenis interaksi itu

potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.

sebanyak dua pertiga untuk mengawalnya.

That might be through working from home,

Mungkin melalui bekerja dari rumah,

from changing lifestyle

mengubah gaya hidup

and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.

dan jenis tempat sesak yang anda pergi dan makan.

And of course, these measures, things like school closures,

Dan sudah tentu, langkah seperti penutupan sekolah,

and other things that just attempt to reduce

dan lain-lain bagi mengurangkan

the social mixing of a population.

pencampuran sosial masyarakat.

[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]

[Soalan 3: Apakah risiko yang kita perlu orang ramai fikirkan?)

It's not just whose hand you shake,

Bukan sahaja tangan siapa yang anda jabat,

it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.

malah siapa yang akan menjabat tangan itu.

And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,

Saya rasa kita perlu fikirkan langkah darjat kedua ini,

that you might think you have low risk

mungkin anda fikir anda berisiko rendah

and you're in a younger group,

dan anda dalam kumpulan lebih muda,

but you're often going to be a very short step away

tapi anda tak sedar akan betapa dekatnya

from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.

anda kepada orang yang berisiko tinggi.

And I think we really need to be socially minded

Saya rasa kita benar-benar perlu berfikir secara sosial

and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,

hal ini boleh menjadi besar dari segi perubahan tindak laku,

but it needs to be

tapi ia perlu dilakukan

to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.

untuk mengurangkan kesan yang mungkin kita hadapi.

[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]

[Soalan 4: Berapakah jarak yang diperlukan antara satu sama lain?]

I think it's hard to pin down exactly,

Hal ini susah untuk ditetapkan,

but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence

tapi perkara yang perlu kita ingat ialah tidak banyak bukti

that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --

bahawa penyakit ini aerosol dan mampu bergerak jauh --

it's reasonably short distances.

ia jarak yang agak dekat.

I don't think it's the case

Saya tak rasa jika

that you're sitting a few meters away from someone

anda duduk beberapa meter dari seseorang

and the virus is somehow going to get across.

virus itu akan berjangkit kepada anda.

It's in closer interactions,

Ia dalam interaksi rapat,

and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events

dan hal ini adalah sebab penjalaran banyak

occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.

berlaku apabila makan bersama dan berkumpul secara rapat.

Because if you imagine

Kerana jika anda bayangkan

that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces

tempat yang anda boleh menyebar virus ke permukaan

and onto hands and onto faces,

dan ke tangan dan muka,

and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.

situasi-situasi ini yang kita harus fikirkan.

[Question 5: What kind of protective measures

[Soalan 5: Apakah lagkah-langkah perlindungan

should countries put in place?]

yang wajar diambil oleh negara?]

I think that's what people are trying to piece together,

Hal ini ialah perkara yang ramai orang sedang cuba selesaikan,

first in terms of what works.

pertamanya apa yang membantu.

It's only really in the last sort of few weeks

Sebenarnya baru beberapa minggu lepas

we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable

kita memahami bahawa hal ini boleh dikawal

with this extent of interventions,

dengan campur tangan tahap ini,

but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,

tapi bukan semua negara boleh lakukan hal yang China lakukan,

some of these measures

sesetengah langkah ini

incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden

memberi beban sosial, ekonomi, psikologi yang besar

on populations.

kepada populasi.

And of course, there's the time limit.

Dan pastinya, masa kita terhad.

In China, they've had them in for six weeks,

China sudah melalui hal ini selama 6 minggu,

it's tough to maintain that,

sukar untuk kekalkan hal ini

so we need to think of these tradeoffs

kita perlu fikirkan tukar ganti

of all the things we can ask people to do,

perkara yang kita minta orang ramai lakukan,

what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

perkara yang paling berkesan bagi mengurangkan beban.

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]

[Maklumat lanjut di: Pusat Kawalan dan Pencegahan Penyakit]

[World Health Organization]

[Organisasi Kesihatan Dunia]