How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

翻译人员: Yizhuo He 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]

【我们该如何控制住 新冠病毒的传播？】

[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]

【传染病学家：亚当 · 库哈尔斯基】

[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]

【问题1：我们应该怎样 控制住流行病的蔓延？】

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control

对疫情的控制指的是集中精力

very much on the cases and their contacts.

控制住确诊病例 和与他们有接触的人。

So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,

这样就不会引起 人群大规模的混乱，

you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,

一发现确诊病例， 就将他们进行隔离，

you work out who they've come into contact with,

找出与他们有过接触的人，

who's potentially these opportunities for exposure

存在被感染可能性的人，

and then you can follow up those people,

然后持续跟进这群人，

maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.

或者将他们进行隔离， 确保疫情不会进一步蔓延。

So it's a very focused, targeted method,

所以这是一种针对性很强的方法，

and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.

这种方法对控制非典 （SARS）来说很奏效。

But I think for this infection,

但我认为对于这次的感染，

because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,

因为有些病例不会被发现和检测到，

you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.

就得注意一大群 存在被感染风险的人。

If a few slip through the net,

如果有漏网之鱼，

potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.

那么就会面临 疫情爆发的潜在风险。

[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]

【问题2：如果光控制疫情还不够的话， 我们下一步应该做什么？】

In that respect,

那样的话，

it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.

我们的社交方式 需要进行巨大改变。

And so that would require,

那包括，

of the opportunities that could spread the virus

减少所有可能导致 病毒传播的机会，

so these kind of close contacts,

像是近距离接触，

everybody in the population, on average,

平均而言，每个人

will be needing to reduce those interactions

就得减少大约三分之二

potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.

这种近接触的机会 才能有效控制疫情传播。

That might be through working from home,

可以通过在家办公，

from changing lifestyle

改变生活方式，

and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.

不去拥挤的场所与餐厅来实现。

And of course, these measures, things like school closures,

当然了，像是关闭学校

和其他的措施，只能做到

and other things that just attempt to reduce

the social mixing of a population.

尽量避免人群密集接触。

[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]

【问题3：我们需要考虑到 哪些可能被传染的风险？】

It's not just whose hand you shake,

重要的不只是你和哪些人握了手，

it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.

还有那些人会和哪些人握手。

And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,

我认为我们应该考虑下 这些第二阶段的步骤，

that you might think you have low risk

你也许会觉得 你被感染的风险很低，

and you're in a younger group,

你比较年轻，

but you're often going to be a very short step away

但你通常会离那些一旦得病

from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.

就将面临致命风险的人很近。

And I think we really need to be socially minded

正因如此， 我认为我们应具有社会意识，

and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,

这将导致我们的行为模式 产生重大变化，

but it needs to be

但为了减少

to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.

我们可能面临的负面影响， 这些是必须要做到的。

[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]

【问题4：我们该和他人保持多远的距离？】

I think it's hard to pin down exactly,

要想说出一个具体数字 是很困难的，

但我认为大家应记住， 目前并没有足够证据表明

but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence

这种包含病毒的气溶胶 能传播很远的距离——

that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --

它理应只能在很短的距离内传播。

it's reasonably short distances.

I don't think it's the case

我并不认为

你坐在离另一人几米远的地方

that you're sitting a few meters away from someone

and the virus is somehow going to get across.

病毒还能穿过这么远的距离。

It's in closer interactions,

我们应该注意的是近距离接触，

and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events

这是那么多传染案例发生于

occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.

就餐场所和 人员密集的团体中的原因。

Because if you imagine

因为可以想像，

that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces

在那些地方病毒更容易到达我们

and onto hands and onto faces,

手和脸的表面，

and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.

我们更应关注这些情况。

[Question 5: What kind of protective measures

【问题5：世界各国应落实

should countries put in place?]

哪些预防措施？】

I think that's what people are trying to piece together,

我认为大家应首先考虑那些

first in terms of what works.

被证实有效的措施。

It's only really in the last sort of few weeks

我们也是直到前几周

we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable

才意识到这种病毒在某种程度的

with this extent of interventions,

国家干预下是可控的，

但当然，并不是所有国家 都能做到中国所做的那些，

but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,

有些措施

some of these measures

incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden

会对全国人民施加 巨大的社会，经济，

on populations.

和心理上的负担。

And of course, there's the time limit.

当然了， 还要考虑到时间限制。

中国仅花了 6 周 就控制住了病毒的传播，

In China, they've had them in for six weeks,

要做到这点是很难的，

it's tough to maintain that,

所以我们应进行权衡，

so we need to think of these tradeoffs

of all the things we can ask people to do,

想想我们能让人民做些什么，

what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

哪些措施能最大程度地减少 施加于人民身上的负担。

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]

【欲知更多，请访问： 疾病控制和预防咨询中心网站】

[World Health Organization]

【世界卫生组织网站】