How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

Translator: Karen Filskov Reviewer: Anders Finn Jørgensen

[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]

[Hvordan kan vi kontrollere Corona-pandemien?]

[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]

[Adam Kucharski - Ekspert i infektionssygdomme]

[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]

[Spørgsmål 1: Hvad betyder inddæmning af udbrud?]

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control

Inddæmning er ideen om at fokusere indsats og kontrol

very much on the cases and their contacts.

meget på smittetilfælde og deres kontakter.

So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,

Derved påvirker du ikke resten af befolkningen.

you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,

Du har et tilfælde, der ankommer, du isolerer dem,

you work out who they've come into contact with,

du finder ud af, hvem de har været i kontakt med,

who's potentially these opportunities for exposure

som potentielt har været eksponeret for smitte,

and then you can follow up those people,

og så følger du op med disse mennesker,

maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.

måske sætte dem i karantæne for at sikre, smitten ikke videreføres.

So it's a very focused, targeted method,

Så det er en meget fokuseret, målrettet metode,

and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.

og for SARS virkede det bemærkelsesværdigt godt.

But I think for this infection,

Men jeg tror, for denne infektion,

because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,

fordi nogle smittetilfælde vil blive overset eller aldrig opdages,

you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.

kommer vi til at opdæmme en stor gruppe mennesker i risikozonen.

If a few slip through the net,

Hvis få slipper gennem nettet,

potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.

har du potentielt set et udbrud.

[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]

[Spørgsmål 2: Hvis inddæmning ikke er nok, hvad er så næste tiltag?]

In that respect,

I et sådan tilfælde

it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.

vil vi stå over for store ændringer af vores sociale interaktioner.

And so that would require,

Det ville kræve,

of the opportunities that could spread the virus

at de situationer, der kan sprede virussen

so these kind of close contacts,

altså tætte former for kontakt,

everybody in the population, on average,

alle i populationen vil i snit

will be needing to reduce those interactions

være nødt til at nedsætte interaktioner

potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.

potentielt med to tredjedele for at få bugt med smitten.

That might be through working from home,

Dette kan være ved at arbejde hjemmefra,

from changing lifestyle

ved at ændre livsstil,

and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.

og hvordan du begår dig i befærdede steder og til middagsselskaber.

And of course, these measures, things like school closures,

Og selvfølgelig tiltag, så som at skoler lukker,

and other things that just attempt to reduce

og andre ting, der vil forsøge at nedsætte

the social mixing of a population.

social sammenblanding af befolkningen.

[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]

[Spørgsmål 3: Hvilke risici skal folk tænke over?]

It's not just whose hand you shake,

Det er ikke kun, hvem du giver hånd

it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.

det er også, hvem de derefter giver hånd til.

And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,

Og jeg tror, vi skal tænke over disse handlinger i andet led,

that you might think you have low risk

hvor du måske tror, du er i lav risikozone

and you're in a younger group,

og i en yngre befolkningsgruppe,

but you're often going to be a very short step away

men du vil ofte være få led fra

from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.

nogen, der kan rammes meget hårdt af smitten.

And I think we really need to be socially minded

Og jeg tror virkelig, vi skal være socialt bevidste,

and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,

og tænke at det kan være en drastisk ændring af adfærd,

but it needs to be

men det er nødvendigt

to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.

for at mindske effekten, vi muligvis står overfor.

[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]

[Spørgsmål 4: Hvor langt skal vi holde os fra hinanden?]

I think it's hard to pin down exactly,

Det er svært at sige præcist,

but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence

men jeg tror én ting, vi skal overveje, er at der er ret få beviser for,

that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --

at dette er en slags aerosol, der bevæger sig langt --

it's reasonably short distances.

det er relativt korte afstande.

I don't think it's the case

Jeg tror ikke på tilfældet,

that you're sitting a few meters away from someone

at du sidder få meter fra nogen,

and the virus is somehow going to get across.

og at virussen overføres.

It's in closer interactions,

Det er i nære interaktioner,

and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events

og det er derfor vi ser mange smittetilfælde

occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.

der forekommer under måltider, og i tætte sociale grupper.

Because if you imagine

For, forestil dig,

that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces

det er her, virussen kan komme ud og ramme overflader

and onto hands and onto faces,

og komme på hænder og ansigter.

and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.

Det er de situationer, vi skal tænke over.

[Question 5: What kind of protective measures

[Spørgsmål 5: Hvilke forebyggende tiltag

should countries put in place?]

skal lande foretage?]

I think that's what people are trying to piece together,

Jeg tror, det der dét, folk er ved at stykke sammen,

first in terms of what works.

først og fremmest, hvad der virker.

It's only really in the last sort of few weeks

Det er kun gennem de seneste få uger,

we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable

vi har fået fornemmelsen af, at situationen kan kontrolleres

with this extent of interventions,

gennem denne type tiltag,

but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,

men selvfølgelig kan alle lande ikke gøre, som Kina,

some of these measures

nogle af disse tiltag

incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden

skaber en kæmpe social, økonomisk, psykologisk byrde

on populations.

på befolkningen.

And of course, there's the time limit.

Og selvfølgelig er der en tidsramme.

In China, they've had them in for six weeks,

I Kina holdt de dem inde i seks uger,

it's tough to maintain that,

det er svært at opretholde,

so we need to think of these tradeoffs

så vi skal overveje hvilke kompromiser

of all the things we can ask people to do,

vi kan bede folk om at tage,

what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

hvad der har den største effekt på rent faktisk at mindske byrden.

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]

[Lær mere, besøg: Center for Disease Control and Prevention]

[World Health Organization]

[World Health Organization]