How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

翻訳: Yasushi Aoki 校正: Natsuhiko Mizutani

[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]

新型コロナウイルスの世界的流行は どうすれば抑えられるのか？

[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]

感染症の専門家アダム・クチャルスキーに聞く

[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]

Q1 感染症の突発的な流行に対する 「封じ込め」とは何ですか？

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control

封じ込めは感染者とその接触者を 細かく追跡するもので

very much on the cases and their contacts.

So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,

多くの人には影響が出ません

you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,

感染者が出たら隔離し

you work out who they've come into contact with,

その人たちが接触して感染した 可能性のある人を調べ

who's potentially these opportunities for exposure

and then you can follow up those people,

必要なら隔離し

maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.

さらなる感染を防ぎます

So it's a very focused, targeted method,

対象をすごく絞ったやり方で

and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.

SARSのときには とてもうまくいきました

But I think for this infection,

しかし今回については

because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,

見落とされたり 検知されなかったケースが出て

you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.

リスクのある大きな集団を 把握しなければならなくなるかもしれません

取りこぼしがあれば

If a few slip through the net,

potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.

突発的流行に繋がる 可能性があります

[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]

Q2 封じ込めで十分でなければ どうしますか？

In that respect,

その場合は人々の社会的交流を

it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.

大規模に変えることになります

And so that would require,

感染を広める機会になる

of the opportunities that could spread the virus

他人との濃厚接触を

so these kind of close contacts,

everybody in the population, on average,

すべての人に

will be needing to reduce those interactions

たとえば３分の１程度に 減らしてもらい

potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.

拡大を抑えます

That might be through working from home,

自宅勤務するとか

ライフスタイルを変えて

from changing lifestyle

and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.

人込みやレストランに 行くのを避けるとか

And of course, these measures, things like school closures,

休校といった対処も行われ

and other things that just attempt to reduce

人々の社会的接触を 減らそうとするわけです

the social mixing of a population.

[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]

Q3 みんなが気を付けるべきことは 何でしょう？

It's not just whose hand you shake,

誰と握手するかだけでなく

it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.

その人が次に 誰と握手するかという

And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,

二次的なことまで 考える必要があります

that you might think you have low risk

自分は若くてリスクが低くても

and you're in a younger group,

but you're often going to be a very short step away

罹ったら重体化する 可能性のある人と

from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.

間接的に繋がっている かもしれません

And I think we really need to be socially minded

みんなが社会的な側面に 配慮する必要があり

and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,

行動という面で大きな変化に なるかもしれませんが

but it needs to be

私達が直面している問題の 影響を減らすために必要なことです

to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.

[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]

Q4 他の人とどれくらい 距離を取る必要がありますか？

I think it's hard to pin down exactly,

正確に言うのは難しいですが

but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence

覚えておきたいのは

エアロゾルの形で遠くまで届く という証拠はあまりなく

that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --

比較的近距離だということです

it's reasonably short distances.

I don't think it's the case

２、３メートル離れて 座っている相手から

that you're sitting a few meters away from someone

ウイルスが飛んでくる わけではなく

and the virus is somehow going to get across.

もっと間近な交流によってです

感染は多くの場合

It's in closer interactions,

and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events

食事の際や

とても密集した集まりで 起きています

occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.

Because if you imagine

そういうところで

that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces

外に出たウイルスが 物の表面につき

and onto hands and onto faces,

手や顔につくことになるので

and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.

そういった状況について もっと気に掛ける必要があります

[Question 5: What kind of protective measures

Q5 各国はどのような対策を 取るべきでしょう？

should countries put in place?]

I think that's what people are trying to piece together,

まず何が有効なのか

情報を集めているところ だと思います

first in terms of what works.

It's only really in the last sort of few weeks

強い介入によって制御できるようだと 分かったのも

we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable

この２、３週間のことです

with this extent of interventions,

but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,

ただ すべての国が中国と同じように できるわけではなく

some of these measures

その手立ての中には

incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden

社会的・経済的・心理的に 大きな負担を

人々に強いるものもあります

on populations.

And of course, there's the time limit.

また時間的な限界もあります

中国では６週間封鎖しましたが

In China, they've had them in for six weeks,

it's tough to maintain that,

簡単なことではなく

so we need to think of these tradeoffs

トレードオフを考える 必要があります―

of all the things we can ask people to do,

人々に求めうることは何で

負担を減らす上で 最も有効なことは何なのか

what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]

[もっと詳しくは 疾病予防管理センターや WHOのサイトをご覧ください]

[World Health Organization]