How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | Adam Kucharski

Prevoditelj: Jasmina Sevo Recezent: Sanda L

[How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?]

[Kako možemo kontrolirati pandemiju koronavirusa?]

[From infectious disease expert Adam Kucharski]

[Adam Kucharski, stručnjak za zarazne bolesti]

[Question 1: What does containment mean when it comes to outbreaks?]

[1. pitanje: Što znači obuzdavanje virusa nakon što izbije epidemija?]

Containment is this idea that you can focus your effort on control

Obuzdavanje znači da se težište stavi na kontrolu

very much on the cases and their contacts.

zaraženih i njihovih kontakata.

So you're not causing disruption to the wider population,

Tako se ne remeti šira populacija,

you have a case that comes in, you isolate them,

pojave se zaražene osobe, izolirate ih,

you work out who they've come into contact with,

utvrdite s kime su bili u kontaktu,

who's potentially these opportunities for exposure

tko je potencijalno bio izložen

and then you can follow up those people,

i onda se može pratiti stanje tih osoba,

maybe quarantine them, to make sure that no further transmission happens.

možda ih staviti u karantenu i tako spriječiti daljnji prijenos.

So it's a very focused, targeted method,

Dakle, riječ je o veoma ciljanoj metodi

and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.

koja je bila iznimno učinkovita protiv SARS-a.

But I think for this infection,

Ali, u slučaju ove infekcije,

because some cases are going to be missed, or undetected,

budući da će se neki slučajevi propustiti ili će proći neopaženo,

you've really got to be capturing a large chunk of people at risk.

zbilja se mora uhvatiti velik broj ljudi iz rizičnih grupa.

If a few slip through the net,

Ako samo nekoliko promakne,

potentially, you're going to get an outbreak.

moguće je da dođe do izbijanja bolesti.

[Question 2: If containment isn't enough, what comes next?]

[2. pitanje: Ako suzbijanje nije dovoljno, koji je sljedeći korak?]

In that respect,

U tom slučaju,

it would be about massive changes in our social interactions.

trebalo bi doći do drastičnih promjena u našim društvenim interakcijama.

And so that would require,

A to bi podrazumijevalo,

of the opportunities that could spread the virus

u smislu prilika kada bi se virus mogao proširiti,

so these kind of close contacts,

znači, ti oblici bliskih kontakata,

everybody in the population, on average,

svaki član populacije, u prosjeku,

will be needing to reduce those interactions

morao bi smanjiti te interakcije

potentially by two-thirds to bring it under control.

za možda dvije trećine, da bi ga se stavilo pod kontrolu.

That might be through working from home,

To bi se moglo postići radom od doma,

from changing lifestyle

promjenom načina života

and kind of where you go in crowded places and dinners.

te izbjegavanjem gužvi i restorana.

And of course, these measures, things like school closures,

I naravno, ove mjere kao što su zatvaranje škola

and other things that just attempt to reduce

i druge mjere kojima se nastoje

the social mixing of a population.

smanjiti društvene interakcije.

[Question 3: What are the risks that we need people to think about?]

[3. pitanje: Koji su to rizici na koje ljudi trebaju obratiti pažnju?]

It's not just whose hand you shake,

Nije u pitanju samo to s kime se rukujete,

it's whose hand that person goes on to shake.

nego i s kim će se dalje ta osoba rukovati.

And I think we need to think about these second-degree steps,

Smatram da moramo promisliti o tim sekundarnim mjerama,

that you might think you have low risk

jer možda mislite da ste niskorizični

and you're in a younger group,

i da ste član mlađe populacije,

but you're often going to be a very short step away

ali često ćete biti tek na korak

from someone who is going to get hit very hard by this.

od nekoga koga će ovo snažno pogoditi.

And I think we really need to be socially minded

Smatram da zbilja moramo biti socijalno osviješteni

and think this could be quite dramatic in terms of change of behavior,

i shvatiti da bi ovo moglo drastično promijeniti ponašanje,

but it needs to be

no to je potrebno

to reduce the impact that we're potentially facing.

da ublažimo posljedice s kojima se možemo suočiti.

[Question 4: How far apart should people stay from each other?]

[4. pitanje: Koju udaljenost bi ljudi trebali držati između sebe?]

I think it's hard to pin down exactly,

Mislim da je to teško točno definirati,

no treba imati na umu da nema toliko dokaza o tome

but I think one thing to bear in mind is that there's not so much evidence

that this is a kind of aerosol and it goes really far --

da je ovdje riječ o aerosolu velikog raspona širenja -

prilično su male udaljenosti.

it's reasonably short distances.

I don't think it's the case

Ne mislim da će,

that you're sitting a few meters away from someone

ako sjedite nekoliko metara udaljeni od nekoga,

and the virus is somehow going to get across.

virus nekako prijeći na vas.

Za to su potrebni bliskiji kontakti

It's in closer interactions,

and it's why we're seeing so many transmission events

i zato svjedočimo tolikim brojnim zarazama

occur in things like meals and really tight-knit groups.

za zajedničkim stolovima i u jako bliskim krugovima.

Because if you imagine

Probajte si to predočiti,

that's where you can get a virus out and onto surfaces

negdje možete pokupiti virus i prenijeti ga na površine

and onto hands and onto faces,

pa onda na ruke i lice,

and it's really situations like that we've got to think more about.

a to su upravo situacije o kojima trebamo više misliti.

[Question 5: What kind of protective measures

[5. pitanje: Kakve zaštitne mjere

should countries put in place?]

bi države trebale provoditi?]

I think that's what people are trying to piece together,

Mislim da je to upravo ono što ljudi pokušavaju dokučiti,

first in terms of what works.

najprije u pogledu učinkovitosti.

It's only really in the last sort of few weeks

U stvari, tek u proteklih nekoliko tjedana

we've got a sense that this thing can be controllable

stječemo osjećaj da se ovo može držati pod kontrolom

with this extent of interventions,

uz ovaj opseg intervencija,

but of course, not all countries can do what China have done,

no, naravno, ne mogu sve države učiniti što je Kina učinila,

neke od ovih mjera

some of these measures

incur a huge social, economic, psychological burden

su velik socijalni, gospodarski i psihološki teret

on populations.

na cijelu populaciju.

And of course, there's the time limit.

A, naravno, tu je i vremensko ograničenje.

U Kini su mjere trajale šest tjedana,

In China, they've had them in for six weeks,

tako nešto je teško održavati,

it's tough to maintain that,

tako da treba razmisliti o kompromisima,

so we need to think of these tradeoffs

of all the things we can ask people to do,

o svemu što se od građana može tražiti da čine,

what's going to have the most impact on actually reducing the burden.

što će najviše utjecati da se taj teret zapravo umanji.

[To learn more, visit: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention]

[Za više informacija posjetite: Centri za kontrolu i prevenciju bolesti]

[World Health Organization]

[Svjetska zdravstvena organizacija]