Questioning the universe | Stephen Hawking

翻译人员: 黃友豪 . 校对人员: Zachary Lin Zhao

There is nothing bigger or older than the universe.

没什么比宇宙更广大更久远的了。

您们的问题中我想聊一下的是:

The questions I would like to talk about are:

您我何从?

one, where did we come from?

How did the universe come into being?

宇宙何来?

宇宙中就只有我们?

Are we alone in the universe?

有外星异生物么?

Is there alien life out there?

人类的未来将会如何?

What is the future of the human race?

Up until the 1920s,

上世纪20年代之前,

所有人都以为宇宙基本上是处于稳态,

everyone thought the universe was essentially static

and unchanging in time.

流金岁月, 持恒不变.

之后我们发现原来宇宙正在膨胀中.

Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding.

Distant galaxies were moving away from us.

辽远星系一直飞离我们.

这意味着它们必定曾相靠近.

This meant they must have been closer together in the past.

If we extrapolate back,

我们若往后推算,

we find we must have all been on top of each other

就会发现我们必都曾於约150亿年前

about 15 billion years ago.

互相堆叠在一起.

正是这 "霹雳大爆炸" - 宇宙之起始.

This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.

But was there anything before the Big Bang?

然而大爆炸前可有什么吗?

若是没有, 又是什么创造宇宙呢?

If not, what created the universe?

宇宙缘何要从大霹雳中冒出呢?

Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did?

过往我们都认为宇宙论

We used to think that the theory of the universe

could be divided into two parts.

可分成两部分.

首先, 是定律

First, there were the laws

like Maxwell's equations and general relativity

像'麦克斯韦方程组' 和 '广义相对论'

that determined the evolution of the universe,

以其于同一刻设定整个时空之状态,

given its state over all of space at one time.

而决定了宇宙之演化进程.

次之，是对宇宙雏形

And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.

的疑问.

第一部分我们取得良好进展,

We have made good progress on the first part,

and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolution

除了 '至极端境况' 以外. 现在已对

in all but the most extreme conditions.

演化规律于所有境况下之进程有所掌握.

But until recently, we have had little idea

可直至最近, 我们仍对宇宙初生当时之

about the initial conditions for the universe.

周围条件不甚了了.

However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditions

然而, 这演化律 及 初始条件 之界分

depends on time and space being separate and distinct.

乃囿於"时.空分明"之概念内.

Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theory

而於极端条件下, 广义相对论及量子论

allow time to behave like another dimension of space.

容许“时间”如同“空间”的另一维度般运作.

This removes the distinction between time and space,

这就将 '时.空'之间区别移除了

and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state.

即是说 演化律 亦可决定初始状态.

The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.

宇宙可以由无变有 自我创生!

我们甚至可以计算出

Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universe

was created in different states.

宇宙在不同情况下诞生的可能性。

这些推论与 WMAP卫星

These predictions are in excellent agreement

with observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background,

所观测到的宇宙微波背景辐射

(即大爆炸之痕迹)

相当一致.

which is an imprint of the very early universe.

我们相信已勘破了创造奥秘

We think we have solved the mystery of creation.

Maybe we should patent the universe

或许我们应将 '宇宙' 给注册

and charge everyone royalties for their existence.

然后向每个生存於世的人收 '生活费'.

I now turn to the second big question:

现在我转到第二个 大问题 去

are we alone, or is there other life in the universe?

宇宙中就只有我们, 还是另有其它生物?

We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth,

我们相信生命从地球自我衍生,

so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets,

故此生命确有可能出现於其它合适星球 -

of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.

星河中看来可有不少呢.

但我们仍未搅通生命是如何生成:

But we don't know how life first appeared.

We have two pieces of observational evidence

对於生命诞生的可能契机

on the probability of life appearing.

我们有两项观测得来的佐证.

The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago.

首先我们有来自35亿年前

的海藻化石.

The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years ago

地球於46亿年前形成

and was probably too hot for about the first half billion years.

头约5亿年相信仍太热了.

So life appeared on Earth

故此生命於

within half a billion years of it being possible,

其变得可能后的5亿年间方出现,

which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetime

这相对於像地球之类百亿年期的星体

of a planet of Earth type.

只算是一段短时间.

This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high.

这意味着生命出现的概率是颇高的.

若是低的话, 就可预期要花尽

If it was very low, one would have expected it

to take most of the ten billion years available.

百亿年的绝大部分才会出现.

另一方面, 我们似乎从未见有外星人到访.

On the other hand, we don't seem to have been visited by aliens.

I am discounting the reports of UFOs.

我不信那些什么 '不明物体' 的报导.

它们干吗要单向那些古古怪怪的人现身呢?

Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos?

If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reports

若真有一个甚麽政府阴谋要将报导打住

and keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring,

从而将外星人所带来之科学识据为己有,

it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far.

那可真像个既离奇, 亦从未见效的举措.

再说, 即便SETI计划已进行广泛探索,

Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project,

we haven't heard any alien television quiz shows.

我们还没有收听到任何外太空电视答问节目.

这可能昭示在我们现阶段文明发展之

This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizations

at our stage of development

方圆数百光年范围之内

within a radius of a few hundred light years.

并没有其它外星异文化.

Issuing an insurance policy

卖保险给那些

against abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.

怕被外星人绑架的人，看来是个不错的选择。

This brings me to the last of the big questions:

这送我到了最后一个大问题:

the future of the human race.

人类的前途.

If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy,

若我们是星河里唯一智能生物,

we should make sure we survive and continue.

就必须确保自己能存活并延续下去.

But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history.

但我们正迈入历史中一个愈发危险的时段.

我们的人囗和对地球有限资源的耗用,

Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth

are growing exponentially,

正以几何级数增长, 相随的

along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill.

是我们将环境或弄好或弄垮的技术才能,

But our genetic code

至於我们的基因指令

still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts

则仍带着那自私和好斗的本质

that were of survival advantage in the past.

这或有利於我们过往求存

却又让我们於往后数百年内

It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster

in the next hundred years,

人祸难逃.

let alone the next thousand or million.

更别说未来千百万年了.

Our only chance of long-term survival

我们长活下去的唯一机会

is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth,

不是一直呆着在地球

but to spread out into space.

而是冲出太空去.

这些大问题之解答

The answers to these big questions

show that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years.

显示我们于过去数百年取得可观进展.

可若要超越未来数百年,

But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years,

our future is in space.

我们的前途在於太空.

正因此，我较倾向于 "人" 控 - ( man 於英语中可单指'人'或'男人')

That is why I am in favor of manned --

or should I say, personned -- space flight.

或许我应说, 由人驾驶之太空旅航.

我一生都在探究想要了解宇宙

All of my life I have sought to understand the universe

and find answers to these questions.

并找出这些问题之答案.

我一直都非常幸运

I have been very lucky

that my disability has not been a serious handicap.

我的残疾并没造成严重障礙;

Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most people

说真的, 这反倒让我比大部分人获得更多时间

to pursue the quest for knowledge.

以从事知识之追求.

终极目标是一套完备的宇宙论,

The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe,

and we are making good progress.

而我们已有良好进展.

感谢您们的聆听.

Thank you for listening.

Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way,

安德信: 教授, 若您必须二选其一作猜测,

do you now believe that it is more likely than not

此刻您是较相信还是较不相信

that we are alone in the Milky Way,

我们是天河中唯一

现水平或更高水平之智能文化?

as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher?

This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insight

准备这答案已花了7分多钟, 真让我深切体会到

into the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.

这整个演讲为TED所付出之 让人难以置信之慷慨.

Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilization

霍金: 我想我们应该是

within several hundred light years;

数百光年范围内之独一文明;

otherwise we would have heard radio waves.

否则我们应已收听到电波.

另一种可能是, 该等文明都维持不久,

The alternative is that civilizations don't last very long,

but destroy themselves.

就自我毁灭掉.

安德信: 霍金教授, 谢谢您的解答.

CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer.

We will take it as a salutary warning, I think,

我想, 我们会将之作为

这一周余下会谈之座右铭.

for the rest of our conference this week.

Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you made

教授, 我们衷心感谢您今天为与我们分享您的问题

to share your questions with us today.

所作出之卓越贡献.

Thank you very much indeed.

真的非常感谢您.

(掌声)

(Applause)