Questioning the universe | Stephen Hawking

6,956,940 views ・ 2008-04-04

TED


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Prevoditelj: Zvonimir Mimica Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:13
There is nothing bigger or older than the universe.
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Nema ničeg većeg niti starijeg od svemira.
Želio bih govoriti o slijedećim Vašim pitanjima:
00:19
The questions I would like to talk about are:
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Prvo, odakle smo došli?
00:25
one, where did we come from?
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00:29
How did the universe come into being?
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Kako je nastao svemir?
Jesmo li sami u svemiru?
00:34
Are we alone in the universe?
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Postoji li vanzemaljski život tamo vani?
00:37
Is there alien life out there?
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Koja je budućnost ljudskog roda?
00:40
What is the future of the human race?
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00:43
Up until the 1920s,
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Sve do 1920-ih,
svi su mislili da je svemir u svojoj biti statičan
00:46
everyone thought the universe was essentially static
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00:49
and unchanging in time.
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i vremenski nepromjenjiv.
Potom je otkriveno da se svemir širi.
00:52
Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding.
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00:56
Distant galaxies were moving away from us.
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Daleke galaksije su se udaljavale od nas.
To je značilo da su u prošlosti morale biti bliže jedna drugoj.
01:01
This meant they must have been closer together in the past.
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01:06
If we extrapolate back,
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Ako ovo razmišljanje protegnemo unatrag,
01:08
we find we must have all been on top of each other
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nalazimo da su sve morale biti jedna iznad druge
01:12
about 15 billion years ago.
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prije oko petnaest milijardi godina.
To je bio Big Bang, početak svemira.
01:15
This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.
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01:20
But was there anything before the Big Bang?
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Ali, je li išta postojalo prije Big Banga?
Ako nije, što je stvorilo svemir?
01:24
If not, what created the universe?
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Zašto se svemir razvio iz Big Banga na način na koji se razvio?
01:28
Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did?
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Nekad smo mislili da bi teorija o svemiru
01:34
We used to think that the theory of the universe
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01:37
could be divided into two parts.
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mogla biti podijeljena u dva dijela.
Prvo, postojali su zakoni,
01:40
First, there were the laws
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01:42
like Maxwell's equations and general relativity
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kao primjerice Maxwellove jednadžbe opće relativnosti
01:45
that determined the evolution of the universe,
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koje su odredile evoluciju svemira,
01:48
given its state over all of space at one time.
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uzimajući u obzir njegovo stanje u cijelom prostoru i u jednom trenutku.
I drugo, nije postojalo pitanje
01:53
And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.
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o početnom stanju svemira.
Napravili smo dobar napredak u prvom dijelu
01:59
We have made good progress on the first part,
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02:03
and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolution
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i sad imamo znanja o zakonima evolucije
02:06
in all but the most extreme conditions.
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u svim, osim u najekstremnijim uvjetima.
02:09
But until recently, we have had little idea
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Ali, donedavno, vrlo smo malo znali
02:12
about the initial conditions for the universe.
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o početnim uvjetima nastanka svemira.
02:16
However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditions
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Međutim, ova podjela na zakone evolucije i početne uvjete
02:21
depends on time and space being separate and distinct.
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ovisi o razdvojenosti i različitosti vremena i prostora.
02:26
Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theory
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U ekstremnim uvjetima opća relativnost i kvantna teorija
02:31
allow time to behave like another dimension of space.
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omogućuju vremenu ponašanje poput druge dimenzije prostora.
02:39
This removes the distinction between time and space,
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To uklanja razliku između vremena i prostora
02:43
and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state.
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i znači da zakoni evolucije mogu također odrediti i početno stanje.
02:51
The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.
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Svemir može spontano stvoriti sebe iz ničega.
Štoviše, možemo izračunati vjerojatnost da je svemir
02:58
Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universe
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03:03
was created in different states.
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stvoren u različitim stanjima.
Ova predviđanja se odlično slažu
03:06
These predictions are in excellent agreement
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03:08
with observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background,
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s opažanjima WMAP satelita,
odnosno kozmičkog mikrovalnog pozadinskog zračenja,
koje je otisak vrlo ranog svemira.
03:15
which is an imprint of the very early universe.
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Smatramo da smo riješili misterij stvaranja.
03:20
We think we have solved the mystery of creation.
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03:24
Maybe we should patent the universe
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Možda bismo mogli patentirati svemir
03:26
and charge everyone royalties for their existence.
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i svima naplaćivati tantijeme za njegovo postojanje.
03:33
I now turn to the second big question:
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Sad prelazim na drugo veliko pitanje:
03:36
are we alone, or is there other life in the universe?
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Jesmo li sami ili postoji i neki drugi život u svemiru?
03:44
We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth,
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Smatramo da je život nastao spontano na Zemlji,
03:47
so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets,
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tako da mora biti moguće da život nastane i na drugim pogodnim planetama
03:52
of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.
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kojih, čini se, ima mnogo u jednoj galaksiji.
Ali, mi ne znamo kako se život prvi put pojavio.
03:58
But we don't know how life first appeared.
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04:04
We have two pieces of observational evidence
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Imamo dvije vrste dokaza prikupljenih opažanjem
04:07
on the probability of life appearing.
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o vjerojatnosti nastanka života.
04:12
The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago.
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Prvi se odnose na fosile i alge
od prije 3,5 milijardi godina.
04:19
The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years ago
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Zemlja je formirana prije 4,6 milijardi godina
04:23
and was probably too hot for about the first half billion years.
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i bila je vjerojatno prevruća prvih pola milijarde godina.
04:33
So life appeared on Earth
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Dakle, život se pojavio na Zemlji
04:35
within half a billion years of it being possible,
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unutar pola milijarde godina od kad je to bilo moguće,
04:39
which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetime
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što je kratko u usporedbi s deset milijardi godina
04:42
of a planet of Earth type.
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životnog vijeka planete slične Zemlji.
04:45
This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high.
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To sugerira da je vjerojatnost nastanka života prilično velika.
Kad bi vjerojatnost bila mala očekivali bismo
04:51
If it was very low, one would have expected it
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04:54
to take most of the ten billion years available.
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da bi bio potreban veći dio tih raspoloživih deset milijardi godina.
S druge strane, izgleda da nas vanzemaljci nisu posjetili.
04:59
On the other hand, we don't seem to have been visited by aliens.
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05:04
I am discounting the reports of UFOs.
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Ne prihvaćam izvješća o neidentificiranim letećim objektima.
Zbog čega bi se pojavljivali samo pred osobenjacima i čudacima?
05:08
Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos?
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05:14
If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reports
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Ukoliko postoji vladina urota o zataškavanju tih izvješća
05:18
and keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring,
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i zadržavanju znanstvenih spoznaja koje donose vanzemaljci za sebe,
05:23
it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far.
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onda bi to, čini se, bila do sada najneučinkovitija politika.
Štoviše, unatoč opsežnim istraživanjima projekta SETI (traganje za vanzemaljskom inteligencijom)
05:32
Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project,
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05:37
we haven't heard any alien television quiz shows.
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nismo gledali niti jedan televizijski kviz program vanzemaljaca.
Iz ovog vjerojatno proizlazi da nema vanzemaljskih civilizacija
05:42
This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizations
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05:46
at our stage of development
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na našem stupnju razvitka
05:48
within a radius of a few hundred light years.
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unutar radijusa od nekoliko stotina svjetlosnih godina.
05:53
Issuing an insurance policy
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Izdavanje police osiguranja
05:55
against abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.
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za slučaj otmice od strane vanzemaljaca čini se prilično sigurnom opkladom.
06:02
This brings me to the last of the big questions:
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Ovo me dovodi do zadnjeg od velikih pitanja:
06:05
the future of the human race.
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Budućnosti ljudskog roda.
06:08
If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy,
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Ukoliko smo mi jedina inteligentna bića u našoj galaksiji,
06:12
we should make sure we survive and continue.
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trebali bismo se potruditi preživjeti i nastaviti.
06:19
But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history.
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Međutim, ulazimo u rastuće opasno razdoblje naše povijesti.
Naše stanovništvo i korištenje ograničenih resursa planete Zemlje
06:28
Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth
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06:32
are growing exponentially,
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eksponencijalno rastu, zajedno s našom tehničkom mogućnošću
06:35
along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill.
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promjene okoline na bolje ili na gore.
06:44
But our genetic code
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Ali, naš genetski kod
06:46
still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts
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još uvijek nosi sebične i agresivne instinkte
06:49
that were of survival advantage in the past.
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koji su u prošlosti činili prednost pri preživljavanju.
Bit će već dovoljno teško izbjeći katastrofu
06:57
It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster
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07:00
in the next hundred years,
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u slijedećih sto godina,
07:01
let alone the next thousand or million.
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a kamoli u slijedećih tisuću ili milijun godina.
07:08
Our only chance of long-term survival
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Naša jedina šansa za dugoročno preživljavanje
07:11
is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth,
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nije da ostanemo pritajeni na planeti Zemlji,
07:15
but to spread out into space.
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već da se proširimo u svemir.
Odgovori na ova velika pitanja
07:20
The answers to these big questions
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07:22
show that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years.
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pokazuju da smo napravili izvanredan napredak u zadnjih sto godina.
Ali, ukoliko želimo nastaviti i nakon slijedećih sto godina,
07:28
But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years,
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07:32
our future is in space.
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naša je budućnost u svemiru.
Stoga se zalažem za ljudski --
07:36
That is why I am in favor of manned --
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07:39
or should I say, personned -- space flight.
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ili, bolje rečeno, svemirski let osoba.
Cijelog sam života tragao za razumijevanjem svemira
07:48
All of my life I have sought to understand the universe
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07:52
and find answers to these questions.
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i pronalaženju odgovora na ova pitanja.
Imao sam veliku sreću
07:55
I have been very lucky
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07:57
that my disability has not been a serious handicap.
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da moja invalidnost nije bila ozbiljna poteškoća.
08:01
Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most people
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Štoviše, ona mi je vjerojatno dala više vremena nego većini ljudi
08:06
to pursue the quest for knowledge.
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za ustrajavanje u potrazi za znanjem.
Konačni cilj je cjelovita teorija o svemiru
08:12
The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe,
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08:16
and we are making good progress.
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i u tome dobro napredujemo.
Hvala vam na pozornosti.
08:22
Thank you for listening.
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08:26
Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way,
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Chris Anderson: Profesore, ukoliko biste morali nagađati o ovoj ili onoj mogućnosti,
08:29
do you now believe that it is more likely than not
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vjerujete li sada da jest vjerojatnije ili nije
08:33
that we are alone in the Milky Way,
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da smo sami u Mliječnoj stazi
kao civilizacija naše ili više razine inteligencije?
08:37
as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher?
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08:57
This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insight
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Za ovaj odgovor trebalo je pričekati sedam minuta i to mi je zaista dalo uvid
09:03
into the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.
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u nevjerojatan čin velikodušnosti ovog cijelog govora za TED.
09:18
Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilization
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Stephen Hawking: Mislim da je vrlo vjerojatno da smo jedina civilizacija
09:23
within several hundred light years;
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unutar nekoliko stotina svjetlosnih godina;
09:26
otherwise we would have heard radio waves.
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u suprotnom, čuli bismo radio valove.
Alternativna mogućnost je da civilizacije ne traju vrlo dugo,
09:32
The alternative is that civilizations don't last very long,
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09:37
but destroy themselves.
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već same sebe unište.
CA: Profesore Hawking, hvala Vam na tom odgovoru.
09:40
CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer.
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09:44
We will take it as a salutary warning, I think,
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Shvatit ćemo ga, kako mi se čini, kao pozdravno upozorenje
za ostatak konferencije ovog tjedna.
09:47
for the rest of our conference this week.
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09:50
Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you made
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Profesore, zaista Vam zahvaljujemo na izuzetnom trudu koji ste uložili
09:54
to share your questions with us today.
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kako biste danas s nama podijelili svoja pitanja.
09:57
Thank you very much indeed.
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Zaista Vam veliko Hvala.
(Pljesak)
09:59
(Applause)
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