Questioning the universe | Stephen Hawking

6,902,908 views

2008-04-04 ・ TED


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Questioning the universe | Stephen Hawking

6,902,908 views ・ 2008-04-04

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

Translator: Felix Malmenbeck Reviewer: Terrence Donnelly
00:13
There is nothing bigger or older than the universe.
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'u' tIn law' Hoch tIn puS. 'u' qan law' Hoch qan puS.
vay' vIghel vIneH,
00:19
The questions I would like to talk about are:
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nuqDaq 'oH mungmaj'e'?
00:25
one, where did we come from?
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00:29
How did the universe come into being?
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chay' chenpu' 'u'?
'u'Daq mamob'a'?
00:34
Are we alone in the universe?
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latlh yuQmeyDaq yaghmey lutu'lu''a'?
00:37
Is there alien life out there?
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nuq 'oH Human Segh San'e'?
00:40
What is the future of the human race?
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00:43
Up until the 1920s,
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qaSpa' tera' maH DIS poH 1920
choHbe' 'u'
00:46
everyone thought the universe was essentially static
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00:49
and unchanging in time.
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'e' luHar Hoch.
SachtaH 'u' ghIq net tu'.
00:52
Then it was discovered that the universe was expanding.
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00:56
Distant galaxies were moving away from us.
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cholHa'taH qIbmey Hop.
vaj 'op poH ret wa' DaqDaq Sumbej.
01:01
This meant they must have been closer together in the past.
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01:06
If we extrapolate back,
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mIwvam wInuDchugh, vaj ngoD wItlhoj:
01:08
we find we must have all been on top of each other
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15 000 000 000 ben
01:12
about 15 billion years ago.
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wa' DaqDaq Hoch qIbmey lutu'lu'.
ngugh qaS SachchoHghach'a', 'u' chenchoHghach.
01:15
This was the Big Bang, the beginning of the universe.
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01:20
But was there anything before the Big Bang?
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qaSpa' SachchoHghach'a', vay' tu'lu''a' ?
ngugh pagh tu'lu'chugh, 'u' chenmoH nuq?
01:24
If not, what created the universe?
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qatlh 'u' chenmoH SachchoHghach'a', 'ej qatlh jaS chenbe' 'u'.
01:28
Why did the universe emerge from the Big Bang the way it did?
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cha' 'ay'mey ghaj 'u' nger naQ
01:34
We used to think that the theory of the universe
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01:37
could be divided into two parts.
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'e' wIHarpu'.
chutmey'e' pabbogh 'u' lutu'lu'.
01:40
First, there were the laws
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01:42
like Maxwell's equations and general relativity
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Maxwell 'ul peQ je nger. Einstein tlham nger. latlh chutmey je.
01:45
that determined the evolution of the universe,
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chutmeyvam pablu'chu'taH
01:48
given its state over all of space at one time.
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choHtaHvIS 'u' Dotlh.
chutmeyvam 'oH 'u' nger naQ 'ay' wa''e'.
01:53
And second, there was no question of the initial state of the universe.
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'u' Dotlh wa'DIch 'oH 'ay' cha''e'.
'ay' wa' wIyajchoHchu'lI'.
01:59
We have made good progress on the first part,
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02:03
and now have the knowledge of the laws of evolution
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ghu'mey le' wIyajchu'be'bogh lutu'lu'
02:06
in all but the most extreme conditions.
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'ach tlhoS choHtaHghach chutmey DIyaj.
02:09
But until recently, we have had little idea
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'a qen 'u' Dotlh wa'DIch wISovbe'chu'.
02:12
about the initial conditions for the universe.
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pImchugh chuqmey poHmey je,
02:16
However, this division into laws of evolution and initial conditions
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vaj pIm nger 'ay'mey.
02:21
depends on time and space being separate and distinct.
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'a chuqmey Da poHmey.
02:26
Under extreme conditions, general relativity and quantum theory
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'e' luchaw' ngermey chu' qaStaHvIS ghu'mey le'.
02:31
allow time to behave like another dimension of space.
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vaj pImbe' poHmey chuqmey je.
02:39
This removes the distinction between time and space,
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vaj chutmey DIyajchu'DI', 'u' Dotlh wa'DIch wISovlaH.
02:43
and means the laws of evolution can also determine the initial state.
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chen'eghmoHlaH 'u'.
02:51
The universe can spontaneously create itself out of nothing.
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nuq 'oHpu' 'u' Dotlh wa'DIch'e'? DuH Dotlhmey law'.
ghaytan qaSbogh DuHmey lutu'lu' 'ej ghaytanHa' qaSbogh DuHmey lutu'lu'.
02:58
Moreover, we can calculate a probability that the universe
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03:03
was created in different states.
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wISImlaH.
chenpu'DI' 'u' woj law' tlhuDlu'.
03:06
These predictions are in excellent agreement
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03:08
with observations by the WMAP satellite of the cosmic microwave background,
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'u' Qup cha'bogh mIllogh'e' luchenmoHmeH tejpu'
WMAP SIbDoH woj noch patmey lulo'ta'.
'u' Qup qechmeymaj rurqu' mIlloghvam.
03:15
which is an imprint of the very early universe.
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chen'eghmoHghach Qatlh wIyajlaw'.
03:20
We think we have solved the mystery of creation.
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03:24
Maybe we should patent the universe
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chaq 'u' 'oghlaHghach chaw' wIDoQnIS
03:26
and charge everyone royalties for their existence.
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ghIq maHvaD DIlnIS 'u' Dabbogh Hoch'e'!
03:33
I now turn to the second big question:
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DaH potlh'a' cha' vIqel:
03:36
are we alone, or is there other life in the universe?
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mamob'a'? pagh latlh yuQmeyDaq yaghmey lutu'lu''a'?
03:44
We believe that life arose spontaneously on the Earth,
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tera'Daq chenpu' yaghmey. chenmoHta' pagh. 'e' wIHar.
03:47
so it must be possible for life to appear on other suitable planets,
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vaj chaq latlh yuQmeyDaq chenpu' yaghmey.
03:52
of which there seem to be a large number in the galaxy.
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'ej qIbmajDaq law'law' yuQmey'e' DablaHbogh yaghmey.
chay' chenpu' yaghmey wa'DIch? maSovbe'.
03:58
But we don't know how life first appeared.
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04:04
We have two pieces of observational evidence
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chenmeH yaghmey 'eb bopbogh De' law''e'
04:07
on the probability of life appearing.
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lu'ang cha' Dochmey:
04:12
The first is that we have fossils of algae from 3.5 billion years ago.
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wutlhDaq yagh Hegh chovnatlhmey DItu'pu'.
3 500 000 000 ben Hegh yaghmeyvam.
04:19
The Earth was formed 4.6 billion years ago
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4 600 000 000 ben chen tera'.
04:23
and was probably too hot for about the first half billion years.
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qaStaHvIS 500 000 000 DIS, ghaytan tera' luDablaHbe' yaghmey 'Iqmo' tuj.
04:33
So life appeared on Earth
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vaj DuHpu'DI' yIn,
04:35
within half a billion years of it being possible,
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rInpa' 500 000 000 DIS chenpu' yaghmey.
04:39
which is short compared to the 10-billion-year lifetime
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tera' taHtaHghach poH nI' law' yaghmey taHbe'taHghach poH nI' puS,
04:42
of a planet of Earth type.
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vaj nom chenpu' yaghmey, DuHpu'DI'.
04:45
This suggests that the probability of life appearing is reasonably high.
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vaj qubbe'law' chenmeH yaghmey 'ebmey.
qubchugh bIH, ghaytanHa' chen yaghmey
04:51
If it was very low, one would have expected it
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04:54
to take most of the ten billion years available.
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QuptaHvIS tera'.
'a wej nuSuchbe'law' latlh yuQmey nganpu'.
04:59
On the other hand, we don't seem to have been visited by aliens.
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05:04
I am discounting the reports of UFOs.
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UFOmeyqoq vIqelbe'taH.
qatlh taQwI'pu'vaD neH 'ang'egh Dujmeyvam?
05:08
Why would they appear only to cranks and weirdos?
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05:14
If there is a government conspiracy to suppress the reports
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novpu' Sov peghtaH'a' qum?
05:18
and keep for itself the scientific knowledge the aliens bring,
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nIDtaHchugh chaH,
05:23
it seems to have been a singularly ineffective policy so far.
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Qapbe'law'taH.
novpu' nejtaH SETI jInmol, 'ej vumqu'taH tejpu',
05:32
Furthermore, despite an extensive search by the SETI project,
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05:37
we haven't heard any alien television quiz shows.
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'a pagh nov ghe'naQmey Qoypu' chaH.
ghu'vammo' wa''e' wIloylaH:
05:42
This probably indicates that there are no alien civilizations
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05:46
at our stage of development
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'op vatlh loghqam juchbogh moQ qoDDaq
05:48
within a radius of a few hundred light years.
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tayqeqmaj lururbogh tayqeqmey'e' lutu'lu'be'.
05:53
Issuing an insurance policy
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nov quchwI'pu'mo' DuQanmeH
05:55
against abduction by aliens seems a pretty safe bet.
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negh yIDIlQo'! ghaytan 'utbe'chu'.
06:02
This brings me to the last of the big questions:
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DaH potlh'a' natlIS vIqel:
06:05
the future of the human race.
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nuq 'oH Human Segh San'e'?
06:08
If we are the only intelligent beings in the galaxy,
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qIbvamDaq QublaHbogh latlh yaghmey lutu'lu'be'chugh,
06:12
we should make sure we survive and continue.
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mataHnISqu'!
06:19
But we are entering an increasingly dangerous period of our history.
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'a QobtaH ghu'maj.
tlhoy law'choHtaH roghvaHmaj 'ej tlhoy tera' jo wInatlhtaH,
06:28
Our population and our use of the finite resources of planet Earth
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06:32
are growing exponentially,
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'ej chammaj 'Itlhmo' yuQmaj wISIghlaHqu'.
06:35
along with our technical ability to change the environment for good or ill.
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wIDublaH 'ej wIQaw'laH.
06:44
But our genetic code
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'a 'IwmajDaq
06:46
still carries the selfish and aggressive instincts
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numutmoHbogh Duj, nuvaQmoHbogh Duj je lutu'lu'taH,
06:49
that were of survival advantage in the past.
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poH nI' ret mataHmeH 'utmo' Dujvam.
qaStaHvIS vatlh DIS poH veb
06:57
It will be difficult enough to avoid disaster
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07:00
in the next hundred years,
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Qugh'a' wIbotlaH'a'? Qatlh.
07:01
let alone the next thousand or million.
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qaStaHvIS 'uy' DIS poH veb... Qatlhqu'!
07:08
Our only chance of long-term survival
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nI'taHvIS poH, mataHtaHmeH
07:11
is not to remain inward-looking on planet Earth,
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latlh qo'mey DIjaHnISqu'.
07:15
but to spread out into space.
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reH tera'Daq maratlhlaHbe'.
potlh'a'meyvam DInuDchugh, vaj wa''e' wItlhoj:
07:20
The answers to these big questions
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07:22
show that we have made remarkable progress in the last hundred years.
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qaStaHvIS nungbogh vatlh DIS poH, Ser law' wIta'ta'.
'a qaStaHvIS vatlh DIS poH veb mataH wIneHchugh,
07:28
But if we want to continue beyond the next hundred years,
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07:32
our future is in space.
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loghDaq 'oH Sanmaj'e'.
loghDaq lujaH nuvpu' vIneH
07:36
That is why I am in favor of manned --
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07:39
or should I say, personned -- space flight.
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ngoDvammo'.
'u' vIyaj reH 'e' vInID 'ej potlh'a'meyvam vIHaD
07:48
All of my life I have sought to understand the universe
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07:52
and find answers to these questions.
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qaStaHvIS yInwIj.
Do' 'e' botqu'be' ropwIj.
07:55
I have been very lucky
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07:57
that my disability has not been a serious handicap.
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chaq muQaH ropwIj.
08:01
Indeed, it has probably given me more time than most people
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ropvammo' qaStaHvIS nI'bogh poHmey 'ej law'bogh
08:06
to pursue the quest for knowledge.
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potlh'a'meyvam vIbuSlaH.
'u' nger naQ 'oH ngoQ'a''e',
08:12
The ultimate goal is a complete theory of the universe,
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08:16
and we are making good progress.
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'ej Ser law' wIta'lI'.
Su'Ijpu'mo' Satlho'.
08:22
Thank you for listening.
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08:26
Chris Anderson: Professor, if you had to guess either way,
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Chris Anderson: ghojmoHwI''a' wa' DuH DawIv net poQchugh,
08:29
do you now believe that it is more likely than not
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ghaytan qIbmajDaq mamob'a'?
08:33
that we are alone in the Milky Way,
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tayqeqmaj 'Itlh law' Hoch 'Itlh puS. DuH'a'?
chay' bIHar?
08:37
as a civilization of our level of intelligence or higher?
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08:57
This answer took seven minutes, and really gave me an insight
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jangmeH vumta' ghaH qaStaHvIS Soch tupmey.
09:03
into the incredible act of generosity this whole talk was for TED.
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quvba' ghojmoHwI''a', TEDvaD SoQvam nI' ghItlhta'mo'.
09:18
Stephen Hawking: I think it quite likely that we are the only civilization
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Stephen Hawking: ghaytan 'op vatlh loghqam juchbogh moQ qoDDaq
09:23
within several hundred light years;
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tayqeqmaj lururbogh tayqeqmey'e' lutu'lu'be'
09:26
otherwise we would have heard radio waves.
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nov jabbI'IDmey DItu'be'pu'mo'.
pagh chaq ngaj tayqeq yInmey
09:32
The alternative is that civilizations don't last very long,
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09:37
but destroy themselves.
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Qaw''eghmo'.
CA: Hawking ghojmoHwI''a', bIjangta'mo' qatlho'.
09:40
CA: Professor Hawking, thank you for that answer.
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09:44
We will take it as a salutary warning, I think,
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ghuHvammo'
qaStaHvIS qepmaj mayep.
09:47
for the rest of our conference this week.
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09:50
Professor, we really thank you for the extraordinary effort you made
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ghojmoHwI''a', SoQvam DaghermeH bIvumqu'ta'mo'
09:54
to share your questions with us today.
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SoHvaD pItlho'.
09:57
Thank you very much indeed.
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pItlho'qu'bej.
(quvmoHmeH wabmey)
09:59
(Applause)
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