Beware conflicts of interest | Dan Ariely

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Radica Stojanović

So, I was in the hospital for a long time.

Dugo sam bio u bolnici.

And a few years after I left, I went back,

Nekoliko godina pošto sam izašao, vratio sam se

and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --

i predsednik odeljenja za opekotine je bio uzbuđen što me vidi -

said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."

rekao je, "Den, imam fantastičnu novu terapiju za tebe."

I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.

Bio sam veoma uzbuđen. Odšetali smo do njegove kancelarije.

And he explained to me that, when I shave,

Objasnio mi je, kad se obrijem, imam

I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,

male crne tačke na levoj strani lica gde imam malje,

but on the right side of my face

ali na desnoj strani lica

I was badly burned so I have no hair,

sam gadno opečen pa ih nemam,

and this creates lack of symmetry.

a to stvara asimetriju.

And what's the brilliant idea he had?

A kakvu je to sjajnu ideju imao?

He was going to tattoo little black dots

Želeo je da istetovira sitne crne tačke

on the right side of my face

na desnoj strani moga lica

and make me look very symmetric.

i učini da izgleda veoma simetrično.

It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.

Zvučalo je zanimljivo. Zamolio me je da odem i obrijem se.

Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,

Kažem vam, bio je to čudan način da se obrijem,

because I thought about it

jer sam razmišljao o tome

and I realized that the way I was shaving then

i shvatio da će način na koji se tada brijem

would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --

biti način na koji ću se brijati do kraja života -

because I had to keep the width the same.

jer je trebalo da održim istu širinu.

When I got back to his office,

Kada sam se vratio u njegovu kancelariju,

I wasn't really sure.

nisam bio baš siguran.

I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"

Pitao sam, "Mogu li da vidim neke dokaze ovoga?"

So he showed me some pictures

Pokazao mi je neke fotografije

of little cheeks with little black dots --

malih obraza sa crnim tačkicama -

not very informative.

nije bilo baš od koristi.

I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?

Pitao sam, "Šta se dešava kad ostarim i osedim?

What would happen then?"

Šta se onda dešava?"

"Oh, don't worry about it," he said.

"O, ne brini o tome", rekao je

"We have lasers; we can whiten it out."

"Imamo lasere; možemo izbeliti".

But I was still concerned,

I dalje sam bio zabrinut,

so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."

pa sam rekao, "Znaš šta, neću ovo da uradim."

And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.

A onda sam imao jedan od najjačih osećaja krivice u životu.

This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.

Ja sam Jevrejin, pa je to mnogo značajno.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?

Pitao je, "Den, šta je s tobom?

Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?

Voliš da izgledaš asimetrično?

Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?

Na neki perverzni način uživaš u tome?

Do women feel pity for you

Da li te žene žale

and have sex with you more frequently?"

i češće imaju seks sa tobom?"

None of those happened.

Ništa od toga nije u pitanju.

And this was very surprising to me,

To mi je bilo iznenađujuće

because I've gone through many treatments --

jer sam prošao kroz toliko terapija -

there were many treatments I decided not to do --

mnogo njih sam odlučio da ne radim -

and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.

i nikada nisam osećao ovakvu krivicu.

But I decided not to have this treatment.

Ali sam odlučio da to ne radim.

And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?

Pitao sam njegovog zamenika, "Šta se događa?

Where was this guilt trip coming from?"

Odakle mi ovo osećanje krivice?"

And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,

Objasnio je da su tu proceduru već uradili na dva pacijenta

and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.

i bio im je potreban treći za naučni rad koji su pisali.

(Laughter)

(smeh)

Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.

Verovatno mislite da je ovaj tip kreten.

Right, that's what he seems like.

Tako izgleda, zar ne?

But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.

Ali nudim vam drugačiju perspektivu iste priče.

A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.

Pre nekoliko godina sam i sam izvodio neke eksperimente u laboratoriji.

And when we run experiments,

A kada radimo eksperimente, obično

we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.

se nadamo da će se jedna grupa ponašati drugačije od druge.

So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,

Imali smo jednu grupu za koju sam se nadao da će biti uspešna

another group that I thought their performance would be very low,

i drugu, za koju sam mislio da će biti neuspešna.

and when I got the results, that's what we got --

I dobili smo upravo takve rezultate -

I was very happy -- aside from one person.

bio sam vrlo srećan - osim jedne osobe.

There was one person in the group

Bila jedna osoba u grupi koja

that was supposed to have very high performance

je trebalo da ima veoma dobre rezultate,

that was actually performing terribly.

a učinak je zapravo bio jako loš.

And he pulled the whole mean down,

Smanjio je srednji rezultat,

destroying my statistical significance of the test.

uništivši mi statističku značajnost testa.

So I looked carefully at this guy.

Pažljivo sam proučio tog tipa.

He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.

Bio je nekih dvadesetak godina stariji od svih u uzorku.

And I remembered that the old and drunken guy

Setio sam se da je pijani starac

came one day to the lab

jednog dana došao u laboratoriju

wanting to make some easy cash

i želeo brzo da zaradi

and this was the guy.

i to je bio taj tip.

"Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.

"Fantastično!", pomislio sam. "Hajde da ga izbacimo.

Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"

Ko bi ikada uključio pijanca u uzorak?"

But a couple of days later,

Ali nakon par dana,

we thought about it with my students,

promislio sam o tome sa studentima i

and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?

rekli smo, "Šta bi se desilo da pijanac nije bio u tom stanju?

What would have happened if he was in the other group?

Šta bi se desilo da je bio u drugoj grupi?

Would we have thrown him out then?"

Da li bismo ga onda izbacili?"

We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,

Tada verovatno ne bismo ni gledali podatke,

and if we did look at the data,

i ako bismo ih i gledali

we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"

verovatno bismo rekli, "Fantastično! Super što ima loše rezultate",

because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,

jer bi onda još više snizio srednji rezultat grupe

giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.

dajući nam značajnije statističke rezultate.

So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.

Odlučili smo da ga ne izbacimo i da ponovimo eksperiment.

But you know, these stories,

Ali znate, ove priče i mnogo

and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,

drugih eksperimenata koje smo uradili o sukobu interesa

basically kind of bring two points

zapravo, po meni, iznose dve

to the foreground for me.

stvari u prvi plan.

The first one is that in life we encounter many people

Prva je ta da u životu srećemo mnogo ljudi

who, in some way or another,

koji, na neki način,

try to tattoo our faces.

pokušavaju da nam istetoviraju lica.

They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality

Imaju motive koji ih navode da budu slepi za stvarnost

and give us advice that is inherently biased.

i daju nam savete koji su u osnovi pristrasni.

And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,

Siguran sam da to svi prepoznajemo,

and we see that it happens.

i vidimo da se dešava.

Maybe we don't recognize it every time,

Možda ne prepoznamo svaki put,

but we understand that it happens.

ali znamo da se dešava.

The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize

Naravno, najteže je da prepoznamo

that sometimes we too

da smo i sami nekada

are blinded by our own incentives.

zaslepljeni sopstvenim motivima.

And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.

To je mnogo, mnogo teža lekcija za naučiti.

Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.

Jer ne vidimo kako sukob interesa utiče na nas.

When I was doing these experiments,

Kada sam sprovodio te eksperimente,

in my mind, I was helping science.

mislio sam da pomažem nauci.

I was eliminating the data

Uklanjao sam neke podatke

to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.

kako bi pravi rezultati došli do izražaja.

I wasn't doing something bad.

Nisam radio nešto loše.

In my mind, I was actually a knight

U svojim očima sam bio vitez

trying to help science move along.

koji pomaže napredak nauke.

But this was not the case.

Ali to nije bilo tako.

I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.

Zapravo sam se mešao u proces sa veoma dobrom namerom.

And I think the real challenge is to figure out

Mislim da je pravi izazov shvatiti

where are the cases in our lives

koji su to slučajevi u našem životu

where conflicts of interest work on us,

gde imamo sukob interesa i da

and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,

pokušamo da ne verujemo intuiciji u njegovom prevazilaženju,

but to try to do things

ali da pokušamo da radimo ono

that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,

što nas sprečava da postanemo žrtve takvog ponašanja

because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.

jer možemo stvoriti mnogo neželjenih okolnosti.

I do want to leave you with one positive thought.

Želim da vas ostavim sa jednom pozitivnom mišlju.

I mean, this is all very depressing, right --

Mislim, ovo je veoma depresivno -

people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.

ljudi imaju sukobe interesa koje ne vidimo i tako dalje.

The positive perspective, I think, of all of this

Mislim da je pozitivna perspektiva svega

is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,

ta da ako shvatimo da smo pogrešili,

if we understand the deep mechanisms

ako razumemo duboke razloge

of why we fail and where we fail,

zašto i gde grešimo,

we can actually hope to fix things.

možemo se nadati da to i popravimo.

And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.

Mislim da je u tome nada. Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(aplauz)