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譯者: Ana Choi
審譯者: Zhiqing Zhang
00:16
So, I was in the hospital for a long time.
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所以,我曾經在醫院過了一段很長的時間。
00:19
And a few years after I left, I went back,
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而在我離開幾年後,我再回去,
00:22
and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --
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而燒傷部的主席非常高興地見到我--
00:25
said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."
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他說:「Dan,我有一個奇妙的新治療給你。」
00:28
I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.
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我感到非常興奮。我跟他走到他的辦公室。
00:30
And he explained to me that, when I shave,
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他向我解釋說,當我刮鬍子時,
00:33
I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,
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我在左邊臉有毛髮的部位有黑點
00:36
but on the right side of my face
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但在右邊
00:38
I was badly burned so I have no hair,
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被嚴重燒傷的臉沒有毛髮,
00:40
and this creates lack of symmetry.
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這造成缺乏對稱。
00:42
And what's the brilliant idea he had?
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而他有什麼高招?
00:44
He was going to tattoo little black dots
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他打算在我的右臉
00:46
on the right side of my face
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紋一些小黑點
00:49
and make me look very symmetric.
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使我看起來非常對稱。
00:51
It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.
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聽起來很有意思。他叫我去刮鬍子。
00:54
Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,
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讓我告訴你,這是一種奇怪刮鬍子的方式,
00:56
because I thought about it
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因為我想過這個問題,
00:58
and I realized that the way I was shaving then
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我當時意識到,我刻下剃須的方法,
01:00
would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --
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便將會是我今後剃須的方法--
01:02
because I had to keep the width the same.
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因為我必須保持寬度相同。
01:04
When I got back to his office,
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當我回到他的辦公室,
01:06
I wasn't really sure.
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我真的決定不穩。
01:08
I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"
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我說,「我能否看到一些證據呢?」
01:10
So he showed me some pictures
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於是,他給我看了一些
01:12
of little cheeks with little black dots --
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小臉頰有小黑點照片 --
01:14
not very informative.
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不是很有建設性。
01:16
I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?
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我說:「如果當我老年時我的頭髮變成白色,
01:18
What would happen then?"
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那會怎樣呢?」
01:20
"Oh, don't worry about it," he said.
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他說:「哦,不用擔心」,
01:22
"We have lasers; we can whiten it out."
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「我們有激光,我們可以改變成白色。」
01:25
But I was still concerned,
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但我仍然擔心,
01:27
so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."
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所以我說,「算了,我不打算這樣做。」
01:30
And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.
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然後, 我聽到我一生中最大的令我感到内疚的話。
01:34
This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.
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這個猶太傢伙都這樣說,這就表示很問題很嚴重。
01:37
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:39
And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?
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他說:「Dan,你是否有什麼問題?
01:42
Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?
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你喜歡看起來非不對稱嗎?
01:44
Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?
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你是否由此有某種變態的快感呢?
01:49
Do women feel pity for you
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是否有女人覺得可憐你
01:51
and have sex with you more frequently?"
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而和你更頻繁發生性關係呢?」
01:54
None of those happened.
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當然沒有這些事。
01:58
And this was very surprising to me,
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而令我非常驚訝的是,
02:00
because I've gone through many treatments --
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因為我已經經歷了許多治療方法 --
02:02
there were many treatments I decided not to do --
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亦有許多我決定不做的治療方法--
02:04
and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.
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我從來沒有到過這種令我感到内疚的程度。
02:06
But I decided not to have this treatment.
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但我決定不要這種療法。
02:08
And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?
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當我去問他的副手 :「究竟發生什麼事?
02:10
Where was this guilt trip coming from?"
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為什麼要令人感到内疚呢?」
02:12
And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,
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他解釋說,他們這樣的療法已經在兩名病人身上做過,
02:16
and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.
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而他們需要第三個病人來寫他們的論文。
02:19
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:21
Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.
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現在你可能認為這傢伙非常糟糕。
02:23
Right, that's what he seems like.
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當然,似乎他就是非常糟糕。
02:25
But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.
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但是讓我給你一個不同的角度看同一個故事。
02:28
A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.
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幾年前,在實驗室裡我正進行一些我自己的實驗。
02:31
And when we run experiments,
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而當我們進行實驗,
02:33
we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.
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我們通常希望一組和另一組有不同的表現。
02:36
So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,
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因此,我們有一個希望他們表現會非常高個的一組,
02:39
another group that I thought their performance would be very low,
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而有另一個希望他們表現會非常低的一組。
02:42
and when I got the results, that's what we got --
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而當我得到的結果--
02:44
I was very happy -- aside from one person.
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-- 我很高興 -- 除了對一個人。
02:47
There was one person in the group
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在小組有一個人
02:49
that was supposed to have very high performance
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應該是有非常高的表現,
02:51
that was actually performing terribly.
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但是實際執行時卻糟透。
02:53
And he pulled the whole mean down,
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他將整個平均拉下來,
02:55
destroying my statistical significance of the test.
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摧毀了我實驗的統計意義。
02:59
So I looked carefully at this guy.
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是以我仔細研究過這傢伙。
03:01
He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.
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他是一個比其他人老20歲以上的的樣本。
03:04
And I remembered that the old and drunken guy
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而我記得,那醉酒傢伙
03:06
came one day to the lab
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來過實驗室
03:08
wanting to make some easy cash
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想要找賺一些快錢,
03:10
and this was the guy.
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這就是那傢伙。
03:12
"Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.
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我想: 「太棒了! 就讓我們扔掉他。
03:14
Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"
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誰會用一個喝醉酒的傢伙做實驗呢 ?」
03:17
But a couple of days later,
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但兩天後,
03:19
we thought about it with my students,
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我們與學生想想,
03:21
and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?
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我們說,「如果這傢伙是不是在醉酒的狀態會怎樣呢?
03:24
What would have happened if he was in the other group?
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如果他在另一組會怎樣呢?
03:26
Would we have thrown him out then?"
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請問我們會不會扔掉他呢?」
03:28
We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,
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我們也許就根本不會看數據,
03:30
and if we did look at the data,
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但如果我們看一下數據,
03:32
we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"
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我們可能會說,「神奇!一個多麼聰明的傢伙竟然得到這個低的結果」,
03:35
because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,
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因為他會拉低該組的平均数,
03:37
giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.
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讓我們有更強勁的統計結果
03:41
So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.
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因此,我們決定不扔掉那傢伙出來,並重新運行實驗。
03:44
But you know, these stories,
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但是你要知道,這些故事,
03:47
and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,
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以及很多其他我們做過的關於利益衝突的實驗,
03:50
basically kind of bring two points
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基本上為我
03:52
to the foreground for me.
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提出兩點。
03:54
The first one is that in life we encounter many people
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第一個是,在生活中我們遇到很多人,
03:57
who, in some way or another,
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以一些某種方式,
04:00
try to tattoo our faces.
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嘗試在我們的臉上紋身。
04:02
They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality
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他們被有激勵的動機蒙蔽了現實,
04:05
and give us advice that is inherently biased.
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而給我們本質上是有偏見的建議。
04:08
And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,
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而且我敢肯定這是我們都能看到的事情,
04:10
and we see that it happens.
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我們都承認它發生的事情。
04:12
Maybe we don't recognize it every time,
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也許我們不能每一次都認出,
04:14
but we understand that it happens.
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但我們知道這會發生。
04:16
The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize
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最困難的事情,當然是要認識到
04:18
that sometimes we too
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有時我們也被
04:20
are blinded by our own incentives.
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激勵的機制蒙蔽了我們自己。
04:22
And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.
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而這是一個非常,非常困難考慮的教訓。
04:25
Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.
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因為我們看不清楚對我們個人的利益衝突。
04:29
When I was doing these experiments,
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當我在做這些實驗,
04:31
in my mind, I was helping science.
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在我心中,我是助長科學。
04:33
I was eliminating the data
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我是在消除了某些數據
04:35
to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.
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來獲取真實模式的數據彪炳。
04:37
I wasn't doing something bad.
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我沒有做壞事。
04:39
In my mind, I was actually a knight
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在我心目中,我其實是一個
04:41
trying to help science move along.
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想幫科學向前看的騎士。
04:43
But this was not the case.
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但這種情況並非如此。
04:45
I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.
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我其實是以大量的好意圖來干擾過程。
04:48
And I think the real challenge is to figure out
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我認為,真正的挑戰是要弄清楚
04:50
where are the cases in our lives
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在我們生活中
04:52
where conflicts of interest work on us,
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利益衝突在何處影響了我們,
04:54
and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,
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並盡量不信任自己的直覺去克服它,
04:57
but to try to do things
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而是試圖做一些事情
04:59
that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,
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來防止我們墮入這些行為,
05:01
because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.
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因為我們因此可以創造大量的不良情況。
05:05
I do want to leave you with one positive thought.
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我想給你留下一個積極的意念。
05:07
I mean, this is all very depressing, right --
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我的意思是,這是非常令人沮喪的,對不對? --
05:09
people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.
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人的利益衝突,我們看不到它,等等。
05:12
The positive perspective, I think, of all of this
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在積極的角度來看,我認為,
05:14
is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,
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如果我們能理解我們何時錯了,
05:17
if we understand the deep mechanisms
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如果我們能了解為什麼
05:19
of why we fail and where we fail,
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我們失敗以及在哪裡失敗的深層機制,
05:21
we can actually hope to fix things.
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我們可以真正有希望解決事情。
05:23
And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.
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而我認為,這是希望。非常感謝你。
05:25
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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