Beware conflicts of interest | Dan Ariely

141,934 views ・ 2011-08-29

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Prevoditelj: Tilen Pigac - EFZG Recezent: Katarina Smetko
00:16
So, I was in the hospital for a long time.
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Dakle, dugo sam bio u bolnici.
00:19
And a few years after I left, I went back,
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I nekoliko godina nakon izlaska, vratio sam se,
00:22
and the chairman of the burn department was very excited to see me --
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i predstojnik odjela za opekline bio je vrlo uzbuđen što me vidi --
00:25
said, "Dan, I have a fantastic new treatment for you."
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rekao je: "Dan, imam fantastičnu novu terapiju za tebe".
00:28
I was very excited. I walked with him to his office.
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Bio sam vrlo uzbuđen. Otišao sam s njim do njegovog ureda.
00:30
And he explained to me that, when I shave,
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Objasnio mi je da, kad se obrijem,
00:33
I have little black dots on the left side of my face where the hair is,
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imam male crne točkice na lijevoj strani lica gdje se nalazi dlaka,
00:36
but on the right side of my face
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ali na desnoj strani lica
00:38
I was badly burned so I have no hair,
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jako sam opečen pa nemam dlaka,
00:40
and this creates lack of symmetry.
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i to rezultira manjkom simetrije.
00:42
And what's the brilliant idea he had?
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A koja je briljantna ideja koju je on imao?
00:44
He was going to tattoo little black dots
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Htio mi je istetovirati male crne točkice
00:46
on the right side of my face
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na desnu stranu lica
00:49
and make me look very symmetric.
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kako bih izgledao vrlo simetrično.
00:51
It sounded interesting. He asked me to go and shave.
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Zvučalo je zanimljivo. Zamolio me da se odem obrijati.
00:54
Let me tell you, this was a strange way to shave,
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Znate, to je bio čudan način brijanja,
00:56
because I thought about it
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jer sam razmišljao o tome
00:58
and I realized that the way I was shaving then
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i shvatio kako će način na koji sam se tada brijao
01:00
would be the way I would shave for the rest of my life --
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biti način na koji ću se brijati do kraja života --
01:02
because I had to keep the width the same.
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jer je širina trebala ostati ista.
01:04
When I got back to his office,
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Kad sam se vratio u njegov ured,
01:06
I wasn't really sure.
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nisam bio potpuno siguran.
01:08
I said, "Can I see some evidence for this?"
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Rekao sam: "Mogu li vidjeti neki primjer toga?"
01:10
So he showed me some pictures
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Stoga mi je pokazao neke slike
01:12
of little cheeks with little black dots --
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malih obraza s malim crnim točkama --
01:14
not very informative.
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ne naročito informativno.
01:16
I said, "What happens when I grow older and my hair becomes white?
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Rekao sam: "Što će biti kad ostarim i moje dlake postanu bijele?
01:18
What would happen then?"
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Što će se tada dogoditi?"
01:20
"Oh, don't worry about it," he said.
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"Oh, ne brini se za to," rekao je.
01:22
"We have lasers; we can whiten it out."
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"Imamo lasere; možemo to izbijeliti".
01:25
But I was still concerned,
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Ali još uvijek sam bio zabrinut,
01:27
so I said, "You know what, I'm not going to do it."
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pa sam rekao: "Znate što, neću to učiniti".
01:30
And then came one of the biggest guilt trips of my life.
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A tada sam sad dobio jedan od najgorih osjećaja krivnje u životu.
01:34
This is coming from a Jewish guy, all right, so that means a lot.
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To govori jedan židov, tako da je to velika stvar.
01:37
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:39
And he said, "Dan, what's wrong with you?
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A on je rekao, "Dan, što je s tobom?
01:42
Do you enjoy looking non-symmetric?
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Voliš izgledati nesimetrično?
01:44
Do you have some kind of perverted pleasure from this?
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Pričinjava li ti to neko perverzno zadovoljstvo?
01:49
Do women feel pity for you
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Sažale li se žene nad tobom
01:51
and have sex with you more frequently?"
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i češće spavaju s tobom?"
01:54
None of those happened.
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Ništa od toga nije se dogodilo.
01:58
And this was very surprising to me,
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A to je bilo veliko iznenađenje za mene,
02:00
because I've gone through many treatments --
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jer isprobao sam mnogo terapija --
02:02
there were many treatments I decided not to do --
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bilo je mnogo terapija na koje sam odlučio ne ići --
02:04
and I never got this guilt trip to this extent.
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i nikad nisam imao toliki osjećaj krivnje.
02:06
But I decided not to have this treatment.
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Ali odlučio sam ne ići na tu terapiju.
02:08
And I went to his deputy and asked him, "What was going on?
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Otišao sam do njegovog zamjenika i pitao ga, "Što se događa?
02:10
Where was this guilt trip coming from?"
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Odakle dolazi ta krivnja?"
02:12
And he explained that they have done this procedure on two patients already,
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Objasnio mi je kako su već proveli tu terapiju na dva pacijenta,
02:16
and they need the third patient for a paper they were writing.
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i trebali su trećeg pacijenta za rad koji su pisali.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:21
Now you probably think that this guy's a schmuck.
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Sad vjerojatno mislite kako je taj tip budala.
02:23
Right, that's what he seems like.
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Dobro, tako se i čini.
02:25
But let me give you a different perspective on the same story.
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Ali pružio bih vam drugi pogled na istu priču.
02:28
A few years ago, I was running some of my own experiments in the lab.
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Prije nekoliko godina, izvodio sam nekoliko vlastitih pokusa u laboratoriju.
02:31
And when we run experiments,
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A kad izvodimo pokuse,
02:33
we usually hope that one group will behave differently than another.
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obično se nadamo da će se jedna grupa ponašati drukčije od druge.
02:36
So we had one group that I hoped their performance would be very high,
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Dakle, imali smo jednu grupu za koju sam se nadao da će imati vrlo visok učinak,
02:39
another group that I thought their performance would be very low,
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i drugu grupu za koju sam mislio da će njihov učinak biti vrlo nizak.
02:42
and when I got the results, that's what we got --
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A kad sam dobio rezultate, dobili smo ovo --
02:44
I was very happy -- aside from one person.
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bio sam vrlo sretan -- osim jedne osobe.
02:47
There was one person in the group
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U grupi je postojala jedna osoba
02:49
that was supposed to have very high performance
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koja je trebala imati vrlo visok učinak
02:51
that was actually performing terribly.
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a čiji je učinak zapravo bio katastrofalan.
02:53
And he pulled the whole mean down,
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Snizio je ukupni prosjek
02:55
destroying my statistical significance of the test.
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i uništio statističku vrijednost testa.
02:59
So I looked carefully at this guy.
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Stoga sam pažljivo promatrao tog čovjeka.
03:01
He was 20-some years older than anybody else in the sample.
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Bio je 20-ak godina stariji od svih ostalih u uzorku.
03:04
And I remembered that the old and drunken guy
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Sjetio sam se kako je neki star i pijan muškarac
03:06
came one day to the lab
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jedan dan došao u laboratorij
03:08
wanting to make some easy cash
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kako bi zaradio neku laku lovu
03:10
and this was the guy.
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i to je bio taj čovjek.
03:12
"Fantastic!" I thought. "Let's throw him out.
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"Fantastično!", pomislio sam. "Izbacimo ga van.
03:14
Who would ever include a drunken guy in a sample?"
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Tko bi ikad uključio pijanog čovjeka u uzorak?"
03:17
But a couple of days later,
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Ali nekoliko dana kasnije,
03:19
we thought about it with my students,
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razmišljali smo o tome s mojim studentima,
03:21
and we said, "What would have happened if this drunken guy was not in that condition?
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i rekli smo: "Što bi se dogodilo kad taj pijani čovjek ne bi bio u tom stanju?
03:24
What would have happened if he was in the other group?
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Što bi se dogodilo kad bi bio u drugoj grupi?
03:26
Would we have thrown him out then?"
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Bismo li ga i tada izbacili van?"
03:28
We probably wouldn't have looked at the data at all,
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Vjerojatno ne bismo ni pogledali podatake,
03:30
and if we did look at the data,
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a ako bismo i pogledali podatke,
03:32
we'd probably have said, "Fantastic! What a smart guy who is performing this low,"
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vjerojatno bismo rekli, "Fantastično! Kako pametan čovjek koji ima tako nizak učinak",
03:35
because he would have pulled the mean of the group lower,
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jer bi snizio prosjek grupe
03:37
giving us even stronger statistical results than we could.
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i dao nam čak i jače statističke rezultate od onih koje smo dobili.
03:41
So we decided not to throw the guy out and to rerun the experiment.
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Stoga smo odlučili ne izbaciti tog čovjeka i odlučili smo ponoviti pokus.
03:44
But you know, these stories,
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Ali znate, te priče,
03:47
and lots of other experiments that we've done on conflicts of interest,
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i mnogi drugi pokusi o sukobu interesa koje smo napravili,
03:50
basically kind of bring two points
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u osnovi ističu
03:52
to the foreground for me.
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dvije stvari.
03:54
The first one is that in life we encounter many people
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Prva je da u životu sretnemo mnogo ljudi
03:57
who, in some way or another,
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koji, na ovaj ili onaj način,
04:00
try to tattoo our faces.
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pokušavaju tetovirati naša lica.
04:02
They just have the incentives that get them to be blinded to reality
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Oni jednostavno imaju poticaje zbog kojih ne vide stvarnost
04:05
and give us advice that is inherently biased.
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i daju nam savjete koji su, po prirodi stvari, pristrani.
04:08
And I'm sure that it's something that we all recognize,
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Siguran sam kako je to svima nama poznato,
04:10
and we see that it happens.
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i vidimo da se to događa.
04:12
Maybe we don't recognize it every time,
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Možda to ne prepoznajemo svaki put,
04:14
but we understand that it happens.
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ali shvaćamo da se to događa.
04:16
The most difficult thing, of course, is to recognize
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Ali najteže je, naravno, prepoznati
04:18
that sometimes we too
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da smo ponekad i mi sami
04:20
are blinded by our own incentives.
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zaslijepljeni svojim poticajima.
04:22
And that's a much, much more difficult lesson to take into account.
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A to je mnogo, mnogo teža pouka koju moramo uzeti u obzir.
04:25
Because we don't see how conflicts of interest work on us.
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Jer ne vidimo kako sukobi interesa utječu na nas.
04:29
When I was doing these experiments,
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Kada sam provodio te pokuse,
04:31
in my mind, I was helping science.
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po svojem mišljenju, pomagao sam znanosti.
04:33
I was eliminating the data
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Eliminirao sam podatke
04:35
to get the true pattern of the data to shine through.
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kako bih dobio pravi uzorak podataka koji će se istaknuti.
04:37
I wasn't doing something bad.
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Nisam radio nešto loše.
04:39
In my mind, I was actually a knight
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U svojim mislima, ja sam zapravo bio vitez
04:41
trying to help science move along.
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koji pomaže znanosti da napreduje.
04:43
But this was not the case.
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Ali to nije bio slučaj.
04:45
I was actually interfering with the process with lots of good intentions.
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Zapravo sam se s mnogo dobrih namjera miješao u proces.
04:48
And I think the real challenge is to figure out
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I mislim kako je pravi izazov dokučiti
04:50
where are the cases in our lives
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koji su slučajevi u našim životima
04:52
where conflicts of interest work on us,
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gdje sukobi interesa utječu na nas,
04:54
and try not to trust our own intuition to overcome it,
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i pokušati ne vjerovati svojoj intuiciji da ih savladamo,
04:57
but to try to do things
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već pokušati činiti ono
04:59
that prevent us from falling prey to these behaviors,
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što nas sprečava da padnemo u zamku takvog ponašanja
05:01
because we can create lots of undesirable circumstances.
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jer možemo stvoriti mnogo neželjenih posljedica.
05:05
I do want to leave you with one positive thought.
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Htio bih završiti s jednom pozitivnom misli.
05:07
I mean, this is all very depressing, right --
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Mislim, u redu, sve je ovo vrlo depresivno --
05:09
people have conflicts of interest, we don't see it, and so on.
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ljudi imaju sukob interesa, mi to ne vidimo i tako dalje.
05:12
The positive perspective, I think, of all of this
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Ono što je pozitivno u svemu tome, rekao bih,
05:14
is that, if we do understand when we go wrong,
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jest da, ako razumijemo kad griješimo,
05:17
if we understand the deep mechanisms
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ako razumijemo duboke mehanizme
05:19
of why we fail and where we fail,
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iza razloga zbog kojih doživimo neuspjeh i gdje ga doživimo,
05:21
we can actually hope to fix things.
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stvarno se možemo nadati kako ćemo popraviti stvari.
05:23
And that, I think, is the hope. Thank you very much.
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A tome se, mislim, nadamo. Puno vam hvala.
05:25
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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