Jean-Baptiste Michel: The mathematics of history

Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast

Translator: Blend Shaqiri Reviewer: Elona Eski

So it turns out that mathematics is a very powerful language.

Pra del se matematika eshte nje gjuhe shume e fuqishme.

It has generated considerable insight in physics,

Ajo ka gjeneruar njohuri te konsiderueshme ne fizike,

in biology and economics,

ne biologji dhe ekonomi,

but not that much in the humanities and in history.

por jo edhe aq shume ne shkencat humane dhe ne histori.

I think there's a belief that it's just impossible,

Une mendoj qe njerezit besojne qe eshte e pamundur,

that you cannot quantify the doings of mankind,

qe nuk mund te masesh veprat e njerezimit,

that you cannot measure history.

qe nuk mundemi te matim historine.

But I don't think that's right.

Por une nuk mendoj qe kjo eshte e drejte.

I want to show you a couple of examples why.

Dua t`ju paraqes ca shembuj pse.

So my collaborator Erez and I were considering the following fact:

Bashkepuntori im Erez dhe une ishim duke e konsideruar faktin:

that two kings separated by centuries

qe 2 mbreter te ndare ne shekuj

will speak a very different language.

do te flasin nje gjuhe shume te ndryshme.

That's a powerful historical force.

Kjo eshte forca e fuqishme historike.

So the king of England, Alfred the Great,

Pra mbreti i Anglise,Alfredi i madh

will use a vocabulary and grammar

do te perdore nje gramatike dhe fjalor

that is quite different from the king of hip hop, Jay-Z.

qe eshte shume ndryshe nga ai i mbretit te hip hopit Jay-Z.

(Laughter)

Qeshje

Now it's just the way it is.

Tash eshte kjo menyre qe eshte.

Language changes over time, and it's a powerful force.

Gjuha ndryshon me kohen, dhe eshte force e fuqishme.

So Erez and I wanted to know more about that.

Pra Erez dhe un donim te dinim me shume per kete.

So we paid attention to a particular grammatical rule, past-tense conjugation.

Keshtu ne kushtuam vemendje te vecante rregullave te gramatikes, zgjedhimit te foljeve ne te shkuaren.

So you just add "ed" to a verb at the end to signify the past.

Pra vetem i shton nje mbarese foljes per te krijuar kohen e shkuar.

"Today I walk. Yesterday I walked."

"Sot une eci. Dje une eca."

But some verbs are irregular.

Por disa folje jane te parregullta.

"Yesterday I thought."

"Dje une i 'dhashe' mendjes para mbrapa."

Now what's interesting about that

Tash ajo qe eshte interesante ketu

is irregular verbs between Alfred and Jay-Z have become more regular.

eshte qe foljet e parregullta qe ndermjet Alfredit dhe Jay-Z jane bere te rregullta.

Like the verb "to wed" that you see here has become regular.

Sikur folja "te martohet" qe e shifni eshte bere e rregullt.

So Erez and I followed the fate of over 100 irregular verbs

Pra une dhe Erez ndoqem rrugen e me shume 100 foljeve te parregullta

through 12 centuries of English language,

gjate 12 shekujve te gjuhes angleze,

and we saw that there's actually a very simple mathematical pattern

dhe e kemi pare qe faktikisht eshte nje model shume i thjeshte matematikor

that captures this complex historical change,

qe shpjegon kete kompleks te ndryshimeve historike,

namely, if a verb is 100 times more frequent than another,

domethene, nese nje folje eshte 100 here me e shpeshte se tjetra,

it regularizes 10 times slower.

ajo behet e rregullt 10 here me ngadale.

That's a piece of history, but it comes in a mathematical wrapping.

Kjo eshte nje pjese e historise, por ajo vjen nen nje mbulese matematikore.

Now in some cases math can even help explain,

Tash ne disa raste matematika mund te ndihmoje edhe te shpjegoje,

or propose explanations for, historical forces.

ose te propozoje shpjegime per forcat historike.

So here Steve Pinker and I

Pra ketu Steve Pinker dhe une

were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries.

i dhame rendesi madhesise se lufterave gjate 2 shekujve te fundit.

There's actually a well-known regularity to them

Faktikisht eshte nje rregull i mirenjohur

where the number of wars that are 100 times deadlier

qe numri i lufterave qe jane 100 here me vdekjeprurese

is 10 times smaller.

eshte 10 here me i vogel.

So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War,

Pra jane 30 luftera qe jane po aq vdekjeprurese si Lufta e 6 diteve

but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier --

por jane vetem 4 luftera qe jane 100 here me vdekjeprurese

like World War I.

se Lufta e Pare Boterore.

So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that?

Pra cfare mekanizmi i historise mund te prodhoje ate?

What's the origin of this?

Cila eshte origjina e saj?

So Steve and I, through mathematical analysis,

Pra Steve dhe une, permes analizave matematikore,

propose that there's actually a very simple phenomenon at the root of this,

propozuam qe rrenjet e kesaj jane ne nje fenomen te thjeshte,

which lies in our brains.

qe gjendet ne trute tona.

This is a very well-known feature

Eshte nje tipar i mirenjohur

in which we perceive quantities in relative ways --

ne te cilin ne perceptojme sasite ne menyra relative

quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound.

sasite si intensiteti i drites ose lartesia e tingullit.

For instance, committing 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot.

Per shembull te vendosesh 10.000 ushtare per betejen e ardhshme, tingellon si shume.

It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously.

Eshte relativisht numer i madh nese ju keni vendosur 1000 ushtare ne betejat e shkuara

But it doesn't sound so much,

Por nuk tingellon shume,

it's not relatively enough, it won't make a difference

nuk eshte relativisht mjaftueshem, nuk do te beje ndryshim

if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously.

nqs me perpara ke vendosur 100,000.

So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities,

Pra e shikoni se per shkak te menyres si perceptojme sasite,

as the war drags on,

si lufterat vazhdojne,

the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties

numri i ushtareve te angazhuar ne te dhe viktimat

will increase not linearly --

nuk rriten ne menyre lineare --

like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 --

si 10,000 , 11,000 , 12,000

but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000.

por ne fuqi - 10,000 me vone 20,000 me vone 40,000 .

And so that explains this pattern that we've seen before.

Dhe kjo e shpjegon kete model qe ne e kemi pare me pare.

So here mathematics is able to link a well-known feature of the individual mind

Pra matematika eshte ne gjendje te lidhje nje funksion me mendjen e individit

with a long-term historical pattern

me terme te gjata historike

that unfolds over centuries and across continents.

qe shpalos shekujt dhe kontinentet.

So these types of examples, today there are just a few of them,

Pra keto tipe te shembujve, sot jane vetem disa prej tyre,

but I think in the next decade they will become commonplace.

por une mendoj se ne dekaden e ardhshme do te behen me te zakonshme.

The reason for that is that the historical record

Arsyeja e kesaj eshte nje incizim historik

is becoming digitized at a very fast pace.

eshte duke u bere i digjitalizuar ne ritem shume te shpejte.

So there's about 130 million books

Pra rreth 130 milione libra

that have been written since the dawn of time.

jane shkruar qe nga agimi i kohes.

Companies like Google have digitized many of them --

Kompanite si Google kane digjitalizuar shume prej tyre

above 20 million actually.

me shume se 20 milione.

And when the stuff of history is available in digital form,

Dhe kur gjerat e historise behen te dixhitalizuara,

it makes it possible for a mathematical analysis

eshte e mundur qe analizat e matematikes

to very quickly and very conveniently

te jene shume te shpejta dhe bindese

review trends in our history and our culture.

te analizojne trendet ne historine dhe kulturen tone.

So I think in the next decade,

Pra une mendoj ne dekaden e ardhshme,

the sciences and the humanities will come closer together

shkencat dhe humaniteti do te jene me te bashkuara

to be able to answer deep questions about mankind.

te jene ne gjendje t`ju pergjigjen pyetjeve rreth njerzimit.

And I think that mathematics will be a very powerful language to do that.

Dhe mendoj qe matematika do te jete nje gjuhe e fuqishme per te bere kete.

It will be able to reveal new trends in our history,

Do te jete ne gjendje te zbuloje trende te reje ne historine tone,

sometimes to explain them,

nganjehere ti shpjegoje ato,

and maybe even in the future to predict what's going to happen.

dhe ndoshta ne te ardhmen te parashikoje se cfare do te ndodhe.

Thank you very much.

Faleminderit shume.

(Applause)

(Duartrokitje)