Jean-Baptiste Michel: The mathematics of history

93,323 views ・ 2012-05-15

TED


μ•„λž˜ μ˜λ¬Έμžλ§‰μ„ λ”λΈ”ν΄λ¦­ν•˜μ‹œλ©΄ μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.

00:00
Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast
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λ²ˆμ—­: eunkyung Oh κ²€ν† : han soo yeon
00:15
So it turns out that mathematics is a very powerful language.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μˆ˜ν•™μ΄ 맀우 κ°•λ ₯ν•œ μ–Έμ–΄λΌλŠ” 사싀이 λ°ν˜€μ§€λŠ” 것이죠.
00:18
It has generated considerable insight in physics,
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μˆ˜ν•™μ€ 물리학에 μžˆμ–΄μ„œ μƒλ‹Ήν•œ 톡찰을 μ œκ³΅ν•˜μ˜€κ³ ,
00:21
in biology and economics,
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생물학과 κ²½μ œν•™μ— μžˆμ–΄μ„œλ„ λ§ˆμ°¬κ°€μ§€μ˜€μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:23
but not that much in the humanities and in history.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 인λ₯˜μ™€ 역사에 λŒ€ν•œ 영ν–₯λ ₯만큼 ν¬μ§€λŠ” μ•Šμ•˜λ˜ κ±°μ£ .
00:26
I think there's a belief that it's just impossible,
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μ œκ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°λ‘œλŠ” λ‹€μŒκ³Ό 같은 것듀이 λΆˆκ°€λŠ₯ν•˜λ‹€λŠ” 믿음이 μžˆμ–΄μš”.
00:28
that you cannot quantify the doings of mankind,
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μΈκ°„μ˜ 행동을 κ³„λŸ‰ν™”ν•  μˆ˜λŠ” μ—†λ‹€.
00:31
that you cannot measure history.
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역사λ₯Ό μΈ‘λŸ‰ν•  μˆ˜λŠ” μ—†λ‹€.
00:33
But I don't think that's right.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ μ €λŠ” 그런 믿음이 μ˜³λ‹€κ³ λŠ” μƒκ°ν•˜μ§€ μ•ŠμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:35
I want to show you a couple of examples why.
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μ €λŠ” μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„κ»˜ μ™œ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ μƒκ°ν•˜λŠ”μ§€ λͺ‡ 가지 μ˜ˆμ‹œλ₯Ό λ³΄μ—¬λ“œλ¦¬λ €κ³  ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:37
So my collaborator Erez and I were considering the following fact:
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‹ˆκΉŒ κ³΅λ™μ—°κ΅¬μžμΈ μ—λ ˆμ¦ˆμ™€ μ €λŠ” λ‹€μŒκ³Ό 같은 사싀에 λŒ€ν•΄ μˆ™κ³ ν•΄ λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€:
00:40
that two kings separated by centuries
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수 λ°±λ…„μ˜ 간극이 μžˆλŠ” 두 λͺ…μ˜ 왕은
00:42
will speak a very different language.
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μ „ν˜€ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ–Έμ–΄λ‘œ 말할 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:44
That's a powerful historical force.
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그것이 μ—­μ‚¬μ˜ κ°•λ ₯ν•œ νž˜μ΄μ§€μš”.
00:46
So the king of England, Alfred the Great,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‹ˆ 영ꡭ의 μ•Œν”„λ ˆλ“œ λŒ€μ™•μ€
00:48
will use a vocabulary and grammar
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μ „ν˜€ λ‹€λ₯Έ μ–΄νœ˜μ™€ 문법을 κ΅¬μ‚¬ν•˜κ² μ£ .
00:50
that is quite different from the king of hip hop, Jay-Z.
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νž™ν•©μ˜ μ œμ™•μΈ μ œμ΄μ§€μ™€ λΉ„κ΅ν•œλ‹€λ©΄μš”.
00:54
(Laughter)
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(μ›ƒμŒ)
00:55
Now it's just the way it is.
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κ·Έλ ‡μ£ , λ°”λ‘œ 그런 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
00:57
Language changes over time, and it's a powerful force.
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μ–Έμ–΄λŠ” μ‹œκ°„μ΄ 흐λ₯΄λ©΄ λ³€ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. 그리고 그것은 κ°•λ ₯ν•œ νž˜μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:00
So Erez and I wanted to know more about that.
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ—λ ˆμ¦ˆμ™€ μ €λŠ” 그에 λŒ€ν•΄ μ’€ 더 μ•Œκ³  μ‹Άμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:02
So we paid attention to a particular grammatical rule, past-tense conjugation.
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” νŠΉμ •ν•œ 문법적 κ·œμΉ™μΈ κ³Όκ±°μ‹œμ œ 동사 변화에 μ§‘μ€‘ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:06
So you just add "ed" to a verb at the end to signify the past.
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μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ 동사에 단지 'ed'만 맨끝에 κ°–λ‹€ 뢙이면 κ³Όκ±°μž„μ„ ν‘œν˜„ν•˜λŠ” κ±°μ£ .
01:09
"Today I walk. Yesterday I walked."
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"였늘 λ‚˜λŠ” κ±·λŠ”λ‹€(walk). μ–΄μ œ λ‚˜λŠ” κ±Έμ—ˆλ‹€(walked)."
01:11
But some verbs are irregular.
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ λͺ‡λͺ‡ 동사듀은 λΆˆκ·œμΉ™μ μž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:12
"Yesterday I thought."
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"μ–΄μ œ λ‚˜λŠ” μƒκ°ν–ˆλ‹€(think의 κ³Όκ±°ν˜• thought)."
01:14
Now what's interesting about that
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μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ ν₯미둜운 점은
01:15
is irregular verbs between Alfred and Jay-Z have become more regular.
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μ•Œν”„λ ˆλ“œ λŒ€μ™•κ³Ό μ œμ΄μ§€ 사이에 있던 λΆˆκ·œμΉ™ 동사듀이 보닀 κ·œμΉ™μ μœΌλ‘œ λ³€ν–ˆλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:19
Like the verb "to wed" that you see here has become regular.
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마치 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ΄ μ—¬κΈ°μ„œ 보고 μžˆλŠ” "to wed"λΌλŠ” 동사가 보닀 κ·œμΉ™μ μœΌλ‘œ λ³€ν•œ κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌμš”.
01:22
So Erez and I followed the fate of over 100 irregular verbs
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ—λ ˆμ¦ˆμ™€ μ €λŠ” 100개 μ΄μƒμ˜ λΆˆκ·œμΉ™ λ™μ‚¬λ“€μ˜ 운λͺ…을 따라가 λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:26
through 12 centuries of English language,
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12세기에 걸친 μ˜μ–΄μ—μ„œ 말이죠.
01:28
and we saw that there's actually a very simple mathematical pattern
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그리고 μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ‹€μ œλ‘œ 맀우 λ‹¨μˆœν•œ μˆ˜ν•™μ  νŒ¨ν„΄μ΄ μ‘΄μž¬ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 점을 λ°œκ²¬ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:31
that captures this complex historical change,
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이와 같은 λ³΅μž‘λ‹€λ‹¨ν•œ 역사적인 λ³€ν™”λ₯Ό μ„€λͺ…ν•˜λŠ” νŒ¨ν„΄μ΄μ§€μš”.
01:33
namely, if a verb is 100 times more frequent than another,
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즉, λ§Œμ•½ ν•˜λ‚˜μ˜ 동사가 λ‹€λ₯Έ 동사보닀 100λ°° 이상 자주 μ‚¬μš©λ˜λ©΄,
01:37
it regularizes 10 times slower.
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κ·Έ λ™μ‚¬λŠ” 10λ°° κ°€λŸ‰ 느리게 κ·œμΉ™μ μœΌλ‘œ λ³€ν™”ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:40
That's a piece of history, but it comes in a mathematical wrapping.
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그것이 μ—­μ‚¬μ˜ ν•œ 뢀뢄이고, μˆ˜ν•™μ μœΌλ‘œ 포μž₯ν•œ κ²ƒμ΄κ΅¬μš”.
01:43
Now in some cases math can even help explain,
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이제 λͺ‡ 가지 μ‚¬λ‘€μ—μ„œ, μˆ˜ν•™μ€ μ—­μ‚¬μ˜ νž˜μ— λŒ€ν•œ μ„€λͺ…을 λ³΄μ™„ν•˜κ±°λ‚˜,
01:47
or propose explanations for, historical forces.
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λ˜λŠ” μ„€λͺ…을 μ œμ•ˆν•˜κΈ°κΉŒμ§€ ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:50
So here Steve Pinker and I
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μŠ€ν‹°λΈŒ 핑거와 μ €λŠ”
01:52
were considering the magnitude of wars during the last two centuries.
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μ§€λ‚œ 2 μ„ΈκΈ°λ™μ•ˆ μžˆμ—ˆλ˜ μ „μŸμ˜ 강도에 λŒ€ν•΄ 생각해 λ³΄μ•˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:56
There's actually a well-known regularity to them
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μ „μŸμ— κ΄€ν•˜μ—¬λŠ” 잘 μ•Œλ €μ§„ κ·œμΉ™μ„±μ΄ μ‘΄μž¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
01:58
where the number of wars that are 100 times deadlier
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100λ°° κ°€λŸ‰ 치λͺ…적인 μ „μŸμ˜ νšŸμˆ˜λŠ”
02:02
is 10 times smaller.
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μ „μ²΄μ˜ 10λΆ„μ˜ 1 κ°€λŸ‰μ„ μ°¨μ§€ν•œλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:04
So there are 30 wars that are about as deadly as the Six Days War,
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 6일 μ „μŸλ§ŒνΌ 치λͺ…적인 μ „μŸμ€ 30번 μžˆμ—ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:07
but there's only four wars that are 100 times deadlier --
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ 그보닀 100λ°° 이상 치λͺ…적인 μ „μŸμ€ 단지 4λ²ˆλΏμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:10
like World War I.
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세계 제1μ°¨λŒ€μ „μ΄ 이에 ν•΄λ‹Ήν•˜μ§€μš”.
02:12
So what kind of historical mechanism can produce that?
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ μ–΄λ– ν•œ 역사적인 λ©”μΉ΄λ‹ˆμ¦˜μ΄ μ΄λŸ¬ν•œ κ²°κ³Όλ₯Ό λ‚³κ²Œ λ˜λŠ” κ²ƒμΌκΉŒμš”?
02:15
What's the origin of this?
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κ·Έ 근원은 λ¬΄μ—‡μΌκΉŒμš”?
02:17
So Steve and I, through mathematical analysis,
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μŠ€ν‹°λΈŒμ™€ μ €λŠ” μˆ˜ν•™μ μΈ 뢄석을 ν†΅ν•˜μ—¬
02:19
propose that there's actually a very simple phenomenon at the root of this,
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κ·Έ κΈ°μ €μ—λŠ” μ‹€μ œ 맀우 λ‹¨μˆœν•œ ν˜„μƒμ΄ μ‘΄μž¬ν•œλ‹€λŠ” 사싀을 μ£Όμž₯ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:23
which lies in our brains.
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우리 λ‡Œ 속에 μžˆλŠ” κ²ƒμ΄μ§€μš”.
02:25
This is a very well-known feature
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μ΄λŠ” 맀우 잘 μ•Œλ €μ§„ νŠΉμ„±μœΌλ‘œ,
02:27
in which we perceive quantities in relative ways --
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μš°λ¦¬λŠ” μ–‘μ˜ 많고 μ μŒμ„ μƒλŒ€μ μœΌλ‘œ μΈμ‹ν•œλ‹€λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€-
02:30
quantities like the intensity of light or the loudness of a sound.
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λΉ›μ˜ 강도 ν˜Ήμ€ μ†Œλ¦¬μ˜ 크기와 같은 κ²ƒλ“€μ„μš”.
02:33
For instance, committing 10,000 soldiers to the next battle sounds like a lot.
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예λ₯Ό λ“€λ©΄, 1만 λͺ…μ˜ ꡰ인듀을 κ·Έ λ‹€μŒλ²ˆ μ „μŸμ— νˆ¬μž…ν•˜λŠ” 것은 λ§Žμ€ 수인 κ²ƒμ²˜λŸΌ 보이죠.
02:39
It's relatively enormous if you've already committed 1,000 soldiers previously.
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μ΄λŠ” 만일 κ·Έ μ „μ˜ μ „μŸμ—μ„œ 1,000λͺ…을 νˆ¬μž…ν–ˆλ‹€λ©΄ μƒλŒ€μ μœΌλ‘œ 큰 μˆ«μžμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:42
But it doesn't sound so much,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ‚˜ κ·Έλ ‡κ²Œ λ§Žμ€ μˆ˜κ°€ μ•„λ‹Œ 것일 μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:44
it's not relatively enough, it won't make a difference
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μƒλŒ€μ μœΌλ‘œ μΆ©λΆ„μΉ˜ μ•Šκ²Œ 되고, 별 차이가 μ—†κ²Œ λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
02:47
if you've already committed 100,000 soldiers previously.
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만일 이미 10만 λͺ…μ˜ ꡰ인듀을 κ·Έ μ΄μ „μ˜ μ „μŸμ— νˆ¬μž…ν–ˆμ—ˆλ‹€λ©΄μš”.
02:50
So you see that because of the way we perceive quantities,
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ―€λ‘œ μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ–‘μ˜ 많고 μ μŒμ„ μΈμ‹ν•˜λŠ” λ°©μ‹λ•Œλ¬Έμ—,
02:54
as the war drags on,
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μ „μŸμ΄ 계속 μ§€μ†λ˜λ©΄,
02:55
the number of soldiers committed to it and the casualties
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μ „μŸμ— νˆ¬μž…λ˜λŠ” κ΅°μΈλ“€μ˜ μˆ˜μ™€ μ‚¬λ§μž μˆ˜κ°€
02:59
will increase not linearly --
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μ¦κ°€ν•˜κΈ°λŠ” ν•˜λ˜, 연속적이지 μ•ŠλŠ”λ‹€λŠ” 것을 μ—¬λŸ¬λΆ„μ€ μ•Œ 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€-
03:00
like 10,000, 11,000, 12,000 --
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1만 λͺ…, 1만 1,000λͺ…, 1만 2,000λͺ… 이런 μ‹μœΌλ‘œ μ¦κ°€ν•˜λŠ” 것이 μ•„λ‹ˆμ—μš”-
03:02
but exponentially -- 10,000, later 20,000, later 40,000.
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κΈ°ν•˜κΈ‰μˆ˜μ μœΌλ‘œ μ¦κ°€ν•˜λŠ” κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€ - 1만 λͺ…, κ·Έ λ‹€μŒμ—” 2만 λͺ…, κ·Έ λ‹€μŒμ—” 4만 λͺ… μˆœμœΌλ‘œμš”.
03:06
And so that explains this pattern that we've seen before.
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그리고 이λ₯Ό 톡해 μš°λ¦¬κ°€ μ•„κΉŒ λ³Έ κ·Έ νŒ¨ν„΄μ΄ μ„€λͺ…λ˜μ§€μš”.
03:09
So here mathematics is able to link a well-known feature of the individual mind
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κ·ΈλŸ¬λ―€λ‘œ 이제 μˆ˜ν•™μ€ 개개인의 정신에 λŒ€ν•œ 잘 μ•Œλ €μ§„ νŠΉμ„±μ„
03:15
with a long-term historical pattern
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μž₯κΈ°κ°„μ˜ 역사적인 νŒ¨ν„΄κ³Ό 연관지을 수 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:18
that unfolds over centuries and across continents.
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수 μ„ΈκΈ°λ™μ•ˆ 그리고 수 개의 λŒ€λ₯™μ— 걸쳐 νΌμ ΈμžˆλŠ” νŒ¨ν„΄μ΄μ§€μš”.
03:21
So these types of examples, today there are just a few of them,
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κ·Έλž˜μ„œ 이와 같은 μœ ν˜•μ˜ μ˜ˆμ‹œλ“€μ€, μ˜€λŠ˜λ‚ μ€ 아직 λͺ‡ κ°€μ§€λΏμ΄μ§€λ§Œ,
03:25
but I think in the next decade they will become commonplace.
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μ €λŠ” λ‹€μŒ 10λ…„μ—λŠ” μ•„μ£Ό ν”ν•œ 일일 거라고 μƒκ°ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:27
The reason for that is that the historical record
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κ·Έ μ΄μœ λŠ” 역사 기둝이
03:30
is becoming digitized at a very fast pace.
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ꡉμž₯히 λΉ λ₯Έ μ†λ„λ‘œ λ””μ§€ν„Έν™”λ˜κ³  있기 λ•Œλ¬Έμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:32
So there's about 130 million books
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μ„Έμƒμ—λŠ” λŒ€λž΅ 1μ–΅ 3,000만 ꢌ의 책듀이 μžˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:35
that have been written since the dawn of time.
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역사가 μ‹œμž‘λœ 이래 쓰여진 κ²ƒλ“€μ΄μ§€μš”.
03:37
Companies like Google have digitized many of them --
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ꡬ글과 같은 νšŒμ‚¬λ“€μ΄ κ·Έ 쀑 λ§Žμ€ 수의 책듀을 λ””μ§€ν„Έν™”ν–ˆμŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€-
03:40
above 20 million actually.
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μ‹€μ œλ‘œ 2,000만 ꢌ이 λ„˜μŠ΅λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:41
And when the stuff of history is available in digital form,
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역사와 같은 것이 λ””μ§€ν„Έν™”λœ ν˜•νƒœκ°€ λœλ‹€λ©΄,
03:45
it makes it possible for a mathematical analysis
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μˆ˜ν•™μ  뢄석을 톡해
03:47
to very quickly and very conveniently
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맀우 λΉ λ₯΄κ³  λ˜ν•œ 맀우 νŽΈλ¦¬ν•˜κ²Œ
03:50
review trends in our history and our culture.
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우리의 역사 그리고 우리의 λ¬Έν™”κ°€ ν˜λŸ¬κ°€λŠ” λ°©ν–₯을 κ²€ν† ν•  수 있게 λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:52
So I think in the next decade,
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μ œκ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°λ‘œλŠ” λ‹€μŒ 10λ…„μ—λŠ”
03:55
the sciences and the humanities will come closer together
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κ³Όν•™κ³Ό 인λ₯˜κ°€ λ”μš± κ°€κΉŒμš΄ 사이가 될 κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
03:58
to be able to answer deep questions about mankind.
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인λ₯˜μ— κ΄€ν•œ μ‹¬λ„μžˆλŠ” μ§ˆλ¬Έμ— λŒ€ν•œ 해닡을 κ΅¬ν•˜κΈ° μœ„ν•΄μ„œμ£ .
04:01
And I think that mathematics will be a very powerful language to do that.
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그리고 μ œκ°€ μƒκ°ν•˜κΈ°μ—, μˆ˜ν•™μ΄ κ·Έ 해닡을 μ°ΎλŠ” 맀우 κ°•λ ₯ν•œ μ†Œν†΅μˆ˜λ‹¨μ΄ 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:05
It will be able to reveal new trends in our history,
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μˆ˜ν•™μ€ 우리의 역사에 λ‚΄μž¬λœ μƒˆλ‘œμš΄ 흐름을 λ°ν˜€λ‚Ό 수 μžˆμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:08
sometimes to explain them,
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λ•Œλ‘œλŠ” μ„€λͺ…ν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:10
and maybe even in the future to predict what's going to happen.
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그리고 μ•„λ§ˆλ„ 심지어 μž₯λž˜μ— μ–΄λ–€ 일이 일어날 것인지 μ˜ˆμΈ‘ν•  μˆ˜λ„ μžˆμ„ κ²λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:13
Thank you very much.
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κ°μ‚¬ν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€.
04:15
(Applause)
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(λ°•μˆ˜)
이 μ›Ήμ‚¬μ΄νŠΈ 정보

이 μ‚¬μ΄νŠΈλŠ” μ˜μ–΄ ν•™μŠ΅μ— μœ μš©ν•œ YouTube λ™μ˜μƒμ„ μ†Œκ°œν•©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ „ 세계 졜고의 μ„ μƒλ‹˜λ“€μ΄ κ°€λ₯΄μΉ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μˆ˜μ—…μ„ 보게 될 κ²ƒμž…λ‹ˆλ‹€. 각 λ™μ˜μƒ νŽ˜μ΄μ§€μ— ν‘œμ‹œλ˜λŠ” μ˜μ–΄ μžλ§‰μ„ 더블 ν΄λ¦­ν•˜λ©΄ κ·Έκ³³μ—μ„œ λ™μ˜μƒμ΄ μž¬μƒλ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. λΉ„λ””μ˜€ μž¬μƒμ— 맞좰 μžλ§‰μ΄ μŠ€ν¬λ‘€λ©λ‹ˆλ‹€. μ˜κ²¬μ΄λ‚˜ μš”μ²­μ΄ μžˆλŠ” 경우 이 문의 양식을 μ‚¬μš©ν•˜μ—¬ λ¬Έμ˜ν•˜μ‹­μ‹œμ˜€.

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