The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed | Bill Gross | TED

Translator: Doris Kos Reviewer: Nika Kotnik

I'm really excited to share with you

Navdušen sem, da lahko z vami delim

some findings that really surprise me

nekaj ugotovitev, ki so me resnično presenetile,

about what makes companies succeed the most,

o tem, kaj je tisto, zaradi česar podjetja uspejo,

what factors actually matter the most for startup success.

kateri faktorji so tisti, ki največ prispevajo k uspehu startup podjetij.

I believe that the startup organization

Verjamem, da so startup podjetja

is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.

najboljši način, da svet spremenimo na bolje.

If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives

Če vzamemo skupino ljudi, ki so dobro motivirani in imajo kapital,

and organize them in a startup,

jih organiziramo v startup,

you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.

lahko človeški potencial izkoristimo, kot še nikoli prej.

You get them to achieve unbelievable things.

Lahko jih pripravimo, da dosežejo neverjetne stvari.

But if the startup organization is so great,

A, če so startup podjetja tako super,

why do so many fail?

zakaj jih tako veliko propade?

That's what I wanted to find out.

To sem želel ugotoviti.

I wanted to find out what actually matters most

Želel sem ugotoviti, kaj je dejansko najbolj pomembno,

for startup success.

da bo startup uspel.

And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,

In želel sem biti sistematičen,

avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have

se izogniti določenim instinktom in napačnim mnenjem, ki jih imam

from so many companies I've seen over the years.

od vseh podjetij, ki sem jim bil priča.

I wanted to know this

To sem želel izvedeti zato,

because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old

ker odpiram podjetja odkar sem dopolnil 12 let,

when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,

ko sem prodajal sladkarije na avtobusni postaji

to high school, when I made solar energy devices,

izdeloval naprave za sončno energijo,

to college, when I made loudspeakers.

do faksa, kjer sem izdeloval zvočnike.

And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.

Ko sem diplomiral na faksu sem začel s programskimi podjetji.

And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,

20 let nazaj pa sem začel z Idealabom

and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,

in v tem času smo odprli več kot 100 podjetji,

many successes, and many big failures.

ogromno uspešnih, a tudi ogromno neuspešnih.

We learned a lot from those failures.

Veliko smo se naučili iz slednjih.

So I tried to look across what factors

Poskušal sem torej preveriti, kateri faktorji

accounted the most for company success and failure.

največ doprinesejo k uspehu ali neuspehu nekega podjetja.

So I looked at these five.

Pogledal sem si sledečih 5.

First, the idea.

Prvi je ideja.

I used to think that the idea was everything.

Včasih sem mislil, da je ideja vse.

I named my company Idealab for how much I worship

Podjetje sem poimenoval Idealab, ker sem oboževal

the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.

tisti "aha!" trenutek, ko se domisliš neke ideje.

But then over time,

A čez čas

I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,

sem pomislil, da so morda ekipa, izvedba in prilagodljivost

that mattered even more than the idea.

tisto, kar je bolj pomembno, kot ideja.

I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,

Nikoli si nisem mislil, da bom citiral Mike Tysona na TED odru,

but he once said,

a nekoč je rekel:

"Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)

"Vsak ima nek načrt, dokler ga nekdo ne boksne v obraz." (smeh)

And I think that's so true about business as well.

In mislim, da to velja tudi za posel.

So much about a team's execution

Veliko tega, kar je v izvedbi ekipe,

is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.

je njihova sposobnost prilagajanja temu, da jih stranka boksne v obraz.

The customer is the true reality.

Stranka je prava resničnost.

And that's why I came to think

In zato sem pomislil,

that the team maybe was the most important thing.

da je mogoče ekipa tista najpomembnejša stvar.

Then I started looking at the business model.

Nato sem začel gledati za poslovnim modelom.

Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?

Ali ima podjetje jasno določeno, kako ustvariti prihodek od strank?

That started rising to the top in my thinking

Počasi je najpomembnejša postajala misel

about maybe what mattered most for success.

o tem, kaj je najbolj pomembno za uspeh.

Then I looked at the funding.

Lotil sem se še financiranja.

Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.

Včasih so podjetja prejela neverjetne vsote financiranja.

Maybe that's the most important thing?

Morda je to najpomembnejša stvar?

And then of course, the timing.

In pa seveda časovni okvir.

Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?

Je ideja prezgodnja in svet nanjo še ni pripravljen?

Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?

Je prezgodnja v smislu, da bomo morali svet nanjo še pripraviti?

Is it just right?

Je čas pravi?

Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?

Ali je morda prepozno in je na trgu že preveč konkurentov?

So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors

Analize teh faktorjev sem se lotil zelo previdno,

across many companies.

v večih podjetjih.

And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,

V vseh 100-ih Idealab podjetjih

and 100 non-Idealab companies

in 100-ih drugih,

to try and come up with something scientific about it.

da bi lahko prišel do kakega znanstvenega zaključka.

So first, on these Idealab companies,

In najprej v Idealab podjetjih,

the top five companies --

najboljših pet --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

those all became billion-dollar successes.

vsa ta so postala vredna več milijard.

And the five companies on the bottom --

In pet najmanj uspešnih --

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.

za katera smo imeli velika pričakovanja, a jim ni uspelo.

So I tried to rank across all of those attributes

Poskušal sem jih rangirati v vseh teh atributih,

how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.

po tem, kako se mi zdi, da so dosegla na vseh teh področjih.

And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,

In nato še za tista podjetja, ki niso naša, z noro dobrim uspehom,

like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.

kot so Airbnb, Instagram, Uber, Youtube in LinkedIn.

And some failures:

In določene spodrsljaje:

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com,

Flooz and Friendster.

Flooz in Friendster.

The bottom companies had intense funding,

Podjetja z močnim financiranjem,

they even had business models in some cases,

ki so imela tudi dober poslovni načrt,

but they didn't succeed.

a jim ni uspelo.

I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most

Gledal sem predvsem faktorje, ki so prispevali največ

for success and failure across all of these companies,

k uspehu ali neuspehu v vseh teh podjetjih

and the results really surprised me.

in resnično so me presenetila.

The number one thing was timing.

Najpomembnejši je bil timing.

Timing accounted for 42 percent

V 42-ih procentih je bil timing tisti,

of the difference between success and failure.

ki je bil odločilni faktor med uspehom in neuspehom.

Team and execution came in second,

Ekipa in izvedba sta bili na drugem mestu,

and the idea,

ideja,

the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,

njena raznolikost in unikatnost,

that actually came in third.

pa je bila šele tretja.

Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,

To sicer ni 100% točno,

it's not to say that the idea isn't important,

ne moremo namreč reči, da ideja ni pomembna,

but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.

a me je zelo presenetilo, da ideja ni najpomembnejša.

Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.

V nekaterih primerih je bila bolj pomembna kot timing.

The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.

Zadnji dve, poslovni model in financiranje, pa sta bili logični.

I think business model makes sense to be that low

Logično je, da je poslovni model tako nizko,

because you can start out without a business model

ker lahko začneš podjetje brez poslovnega modela

and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.

in ga dodaš kasneje, če tvoje stranke želijo videti, kaj ustvarjaš.

And funding, I think as well,

In financiranje prav tako,

if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,

če nimaš dovolj financ na začetku, a podjetju uspeva,

especially in today's age,

še posebno dandanes,

it's very, very easy to get intense funding.

je zelo, zelo lahko pridobiti finance.

So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.

Dovolite mi, da vam podam nekaj točnih primerov za vsakega.

So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.

Poglejmo si nori uspeh Airbnb-ja, ki ga vsi poznamo.

Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors

Podjetju so marsikatera podjetja odrekla financiranje,

because people thought,

ker so ljudje mislili:

"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."

"Nihče ne bo neznancu oddal prostora v svojem domu."

Of course, people proved that wrong.

In ljudje smo dokazali nasprotno.

But one of the reasons it succeeded,

A, eden od razlogov za njegov uspeh,

aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,

poleg dobrega poslovnega modela, ideje in odlične izvedbe,

is the timing.

je bil timing.

That company came out right during the height of the recession

Podjetje se je odprlo takrat, ko je bila recesija na vrhuncu

when people really needed extra money,

in so ljudje potrebovali dodaten denar

and that maybe helped people overcome

in morda so ljudje zato premagali

their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.

odpor do oddajanja svojega doma neznancem.

Same thing with Uber.

Ista stvar z Uber-jem.

Uber came out,

Na trg je prišel,

incredible company, incredible business model,

neverjetna podjetje in poslovni model,

great execution, too.

ter odlična izvedba.

But the timing was so perfect

A je bil perfekten tudi timing,

for their need to get drivers into the system.

zaradi potrebe po vnosu voznikov v sistem.

Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.

Vozniki so želeli ekstra zaslužek; to je bilo zelo, zelo pomembno,

Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.

Citysearch-u recimo, je uspelo, ker so ljudje potrebovali spletne strani.

GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,

GoTo.com-u, ki smo ga naznanili na TED-u leta 1998,

was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.

je uspelo, ker so podjetja želela dobiti promet, a zmanjšati stroške.

We thought the idea was so great,

Ideja je bila tako dobra,

but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

a je bil verjetno timing veliko bolj pomemben.

And then some of our failures.

In še nekaj naših neuspehov.

We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.

Začeli smo podjetje imenovano Z.com, spletno zabaviščno podjetje.

We were so excited about it --

Imeli smo visoke upe zanj -

we raised enough money, we had a great business model,

zbrali dovolj denarja, imeli odličen poslovni model,

we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.

podpisali pogodbo s Hollywoodskim talentom, ki bi se nam pridružil.

But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.

A internet v letih 99-2000 ni bil dovolj razširjen.

It was too hard to watch video content online,

Videe je bilo težko gledati preko spleta,

you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,

v brskalnik si moral dajati kodeke

and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.

in sčasoma je podjetje leta 2003 propadlo.

Just two years later,

Samo dve leti kasneje

when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash

pa je Adobe Flash rešil problem s kodeki

and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,

in, ko je internet v Ameriki presegel 50 procentov,

YouTube was perfectly timed.

je bil čas za YouTube perfekten.

Great idea, but unbelievable timing.

Odlična ideja, a neverjeten timing.

In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.

YouTube na začetku dejansko niti ni imel poslovnega modela.

It wasn't even certain that that would work out.

Gotovo ni bilo niti, ali mu bo uspelo.

But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.

A čas je bil perfekten.

So what I would say, in summary,

Kar želim povedati je torej to,

is execution definitely matters a lot.

da je izvedba sicer zelo pomembna.

The idea matters a lot.

Prav tako tudi ideja.

But timing might matter even more.

A timing je pomemben veliko bolj.

And the best way to really assess timing

In najboljši način doseči pravi timing je,

is to really look at whether consumers are really ready

da dobro analiziramo, ali so potrošniki pripravljeni

for what you have to offer them.

na to, kar jim bomo ponudili.

And to be really, really honest about it,

In, če smo popolnoma iskreni,

not be in denial about any results that you see,

da nismo v zanikanju o rezultatih, ki jih dobimo

because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,

ker, če imamo nekaj, kar imamo radi, želimo da uspe,

but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.

a moramo biti resnično iskreni, če je čas za to pravi.

As I said earlier,

Kot sem že omenil,

I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.

menim, da startup podjetja lahko spremenijo svet, ga izboljšajo.

I hope some of these insights

Upam, da vam ti vpogledi

can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,

lahko pomagajo do rahlo boljšega razmerja za uspeh

and thus make something great come to the world

in tega, da ustvarite nekaj odličnega za svet,

that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

nekaj kar se sicer ne bi zgodilo.

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

Najlepša hvala vsem, bili ste odlično občinstvo.

(Applause)

(aplavz)