The single biggest reason why start-ups succeed | Bill Gross | TED

Translator: Marcos Alonso Reviewer: Cristina Domínguez Roca

I'm really excited to share with you

Em fa molt feliç compartir amb vosaltres

some findings that really surprise me

uns descobriments insòlits sobre què fa que les

about what makes companies succeed the most,

empreses emergents tinguin èxit,

what factors actually matter the most for startup success.

quines són realment les claus per a que tiromfin.

I believe that the startup organization

Em sembla que una startup

is one of the greatest forms to make the world a better place.

és una gran manera de fer del món un lloc millor.

If you take a group of people with the right equity incentives

Si tens un grup de persones amb els incentius correctes

and organize them in a startup,

i els organitzes en una empresa,

you can unlock human potential in a way never before possible.

pots treure el màxim de tots ells com mai abans s'havia fet.

You get them to achieve unbelievable things.

Pots fer que aconsegueixin coses increïbles.

But if the startup organization is so great,

Però si les startups són tan increïbles,

why do so many fail?

per què en fracassen tantes?

That's what I wanted to find out.

Això és el que volia descobrir.

I wanted to find out what actually matters most

Volia descobrir que és el més important

for startup success.

per a assolir l’èxit.

And I wanted to try to be systematic about it,

I volia intentar ser sistemàtic,

avoid some of my instincts and maybe misperceptions I have

evitar les idees preconcebudes i sovint errònies que tinc

from so many companies I've seen over the years.

degut a les múltiples empreses que he vist durant tants anys.

I wanted to know this

Volia saber això

because I've been starting businesses since I was 12 years old

perquè he creat empreses des de que tenia 12 anys

when I sold candy at the bus stop in junior high school,

quan venia caramels a la parada de bus de l'escola,

to high school, when I made solar energy devices,

a l' institut, on feia aparells d'energia solar,

to college, when I made loudspeakers.

i a la universitat, on fabricava altaveus.

And when I graduated from college, I started software companies.

I quan vaig acabar els estudis, vaig crear empreses de software.

And 20 years ago, I started Idealab,

Fa vint anys, vaig crear Idealab,

and in the last 20 years, we started more than 100 companies,

i en els últims 20 anys, hem creat mes de 100 empreses.

many successes, and many big failures.

Moltes han tingut èxit, d'altres, no.

We learned a lot from those failures.

Hem après molt dels fracassos.

So I tried to look across what factors

I, per aquest motiu, he intentat esbrinar quins factors

accounted the most for company success and failure.

tenen més pes en l’èxit i el fracàs d'una empresa.

So I looked at these five.

He considerat aquests cinc.

First, the idea.

Primer, la idea.

I used to think that the idea was everything.

Solia pensar que la idea ho és tot.

I named my company Idealab for how much I worship

La meva empresa es diu Idealab per la devoció que

the "aha!" moment when you first come up with the idea.

tenia sobre el precís moment en el que tens una idea.

But then over time,

Però amb el temps,

I came to think that maybe the team, the execution, adaptability,

vaig començar a pensar que potser l'equip, l’execució, l'adaptabilitat,

that mattered even more than the idea.

eren més importants que la idea.

I never thought I'd be quoting boxer Mike Tyson on the TED stage,

Mai hauria pensat que citaria a Mike Tyson en aquest escenari,

but he once said,

però ell va dir,

"Everybody has a plan, until they get punched in the face." (Laughter)

"Tothom té un pla, fins que et colpegen la cara" (Riure)

And I think that's so true about business as well.

I crec que això és cert en el món de les empreses també.

So much about a team's execution

Una part important de l’execució de l'equip

is its ability to adapt to getting punched in the face by the customer.

és l'habilitat d'acostumar-te a que el client et colpegi la cara.

The customer is the true reality.

El client és la veritable realitat.

And that's why I came to think

Per això vaig pensar

that the team maybe was the most important thing.

que potser l'equip era la part més important.

Then I started looking at the business model.

Desprès vaig estudiar el model de negoci.

Does the company have a very clear path generating customer revenues?

És cert que l'empresa té una visió clara de com generar beneficis?

That started rising to the top in my thinking

Vaig començar a pensar més i més

about maybe what mattered most for success.

que aquest podia ser el factor més important.

Then I looked at the funding.

També vaig estudiar el finançament.

Sometimes companies received intense amounts of funding.

Moltes empreses reben grans quantitats de diners.

Maybe that's the most important thing?

És això el més important?

And then of course, the timing.

I finalment, vaig estudiar l'època.

Is the idea way too early and the world's not ready for it?

Pot ser que les ideees siguin massa innovadores pel món?

Is it early, as in, you're in advance and you have to educate the world?

Has arribat massa d'hora, i has com d´educar el món?

Is it just right?

És el moment adequat?

Or is it too late, and there's already too many competitors?

O has arribat massa tard i ja tens massa competidors?

So I tried to look very carefully at these five factors

Vaig estudiar meticulosament aquests cinc factors

across many companies.

en moltes empreses.

And I looked across all 100 Idealab companies,

Vaig analitzar les empreses creades a Idealab,

and 100 non-Idealab companies

i altres empreses del mercat

to try and come up with something scientific about it.

per a trobar una resposta científica al meu estudi.

So first, on these Idealab companies,

Primer, en les empreses creades a Idealab,

the top five companies --

les cinc primeres empreses:

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero, Tickets.com --

Citysearch, CarsDirect, GoTo, NetZero i Tickets.com,

those all became billion-dollar successes.

van ser totes grans èxits.

And the five companies on the bottom --

De les cinc últimes empreses:

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory, Peoplelink --

Z.com, Insider Pages, MyLife, Desktop Factory i Peoplelink,

we all had high hopes for, but didn't succeed.

tots esperàvem molt, però no van tenir èxit.

So I tried to rank across all of those attributes

Vaig intentar ordenar les empreses

how I felt those companies scored on each of those dimensions.

segons la puntuació que jo creia que tenien en cada apartat.

And then for non-Idealab companies, I looked at wild successes,

Després, vaig estudiar grans èxits fora d'Idealab,

like Airbnb and Instagram and Uber and Youtube and LinkedIn.

com Airbnb, Instagram, Uber, Youtube i Linkedin.

And some failures:

I alguns fracassos:

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com

Webvan, Kozmo, Pets.com,

Flooz and Friendster.

Flooz i Friendster.

The bottom companies had intense funding,

Aquestes empreses tenien finançament,

they even had business models in some cases,

també tenien models de negoci,

but they didn't succeed.

però no van tenir èxit.

I tried to look at what factors actually accounted the most

Vaig estudiar els factors que van pesar més

for success and failure across all of these companies,

en l’èxit i el fracàs de totes aquestes empreses,

and the results really surprised me.

i els resultats em van sorprendre molt.

The number one thing was timing.

El primer factor va ser l'època.

Timing accounted for 42 percent

El timing era el 42 %

of the difference between success and failure.

de la diferència entre l’èxit i el fracàs.

Team and execution came in second,

L'equip i l’execució eren els segons,

and the idea,

i la idea,

the differentiability of the idea, the uniqueness of the idea,

la diferenciació de la idea, la unicitat de la idea,

that actually came in third.

era el tercer factor.

Now, this isn't absolutely definitive,

Això no és definitiu,

it's not to say that the idea isn't important,

no podem dir que la idea no és important,

but it very much surprised me that the idea wasn't the most important thing.

però em va sorprendre molt que la idea no fos el més important.

Sometimes it mattered more when it was actually timed.

A vegades importava més el "quan".

The last two, business model and funding, made sense to me actually.

Els dos últims punts: el model de negoci i el finançament, tenen sentit.

I think business model makes sense to be that low

És lògic que el model de negoci estigui tan baix

because you can start out without a business model

perquè pots començar sense un model de negoci

and add one later if your customers are demanding what you're creating.

i crear-lo desprès si els clients volen el que estàs fent.

And funding, I think as well,

El mateix amb el finançament,

if you're underfunded at first but you're gaining traction,

si al principi no tens diners però les coses funcionen,

especially in today's age,

especialment avui en dia,

it's very, very easy to get intense funding.

és molt fàcil obtenir finançament.

So now let me give you some specific examples about each of these.

Ara parlaré d'exemples específics de cada un d'aquests factors.

So take a wild success like Airbnb that everybody knows about.

Per exemple, l’èxit d' Airbnb, del qual tothom parla.

Well, that company was famously passed on by many smart investors

Molts inversors van rebutjar aquesta empresa,

because people thought,

perquè pensaven:

"No one's going to rent out a space in their home to a stranger."

"Ningú llogarà un espai a casa seva a algú que no coneixen."

Of course, people proved that wrong.

Evidentment, no tenien raó.

But one of the reasons it succeeded,

Però un dels motius del seu èxit,

aside from a good business model, a good idea, great execution,

a part d'un bon model de negoci, una bona idea i una gran execució,

is the timing.

és el timing.

That company came out right during the height of the recession

L'empresa va aparèixer en un moment de crisi econòmica,

when people really needed extra money,

quan la gent necessitava diners extra,

and that maybe helped people overcome

i això potser va fer que la gent superés

their objection to renting out their own home to a stranger.

la por de llogar casa seva a un desconegut.

Same thing with Uber.

Uber és un cas similar.

Uber came out,

Quan va aparèixer

incredible company, incredible business model,

era una empresa increïble, amb un bon model de negoci,

great execution, too.

gran execució, també.

But the timing was so perfect

I el timing va ser perfecte

for their need to get drivers into the system.

per a incorporar conductors al sistema.

Drivers were looking for extra money; it was very, very important.

Els conductors volien diners extra, això va ser el punt clau.

Some of our early successes, Citysearch, came out when people needed web pages.

Un dels nostres èxits, Citysearch, va arribar quan la gent volia webs.

GoTo.com, which we announced actually at TED in 1998,

GoTo.com, el qual vam anunciar a TED l'any 1998,

was when companies were looking for cost-effective ways to get traffic.

va aparèixer quan les empreses buscaven formes de tenir més tràfic.

We thought the idea was so great,

Vam pensar que la idea era genial,

but actually, the timing was probably maybe more important.

però la veritat és que el timing va ser més important.

And then some of our failures.

Pel que fa als fracassos,

We started a company called Z.com, it was an online entertainment company.

vam crear Z.com, una empresa d'entreteniment online.

We were so excited about it --

Teníem grans expectatives,

we raised enough money, we had a great business model,

un bon finançament, un gran model de negoci,

we even signed incredibly great Hollywood talent to join the company.

fins i tot vam contractar un gran talent de Hollywood.

But broadband penetration was too low in 1999-2000.

Però al 99-2000 no hi havia bona cobertura de banda ampla.

It was too hard to watch video content online,

Era molt difícil veure vídeos online

you had to put codecs in your browser and do all this stuff,

Calia instal•lar còdecs i el procés era complicat.

and the company eventually went out of business in 2003.

L'empresa va haver de tancar l'any 2003.

Just two years later,

Dos anys més tard,

when the codec problem was solved by Adobe Flash

quan Adobe Flash va resoldre el problema dels còdecs

and when broadband penetration crossed 50 percent in America,

i la penetració de banda ampla va superar el 50% a Amèrica,

YouTube was perfectly timed.

YouTube va aparèixer en el moment oportú.

Great idea, but unbelievable timing.

Gran idea, però millor timing.

In fact, YouTube didn't even have a business model when it first started.

De fet, YouTube no tenia model de negoci quan va començar.

It wasn't even certain that that would work out.

Ningú estava segur que funcionés,

But that was beautifully, beautifully timed.

però va aparèixer en el moment perfecte.

So what I would say, in summary,

Per tant, en resum,

is execution definitely matters a lot.

l’execució és molt important.

The idea matters a lot.

La idea és molt important.

But timing might matter even more.

Però el timing pot ser més important.

And the best way to really assess timing

I, la millor manera d’encertar el moment oportú

is to really look at whether consumers are really ready

és estudiar si els consumidors estan preparats

for what you have to offer them.

per a rebre el que vols oferir.

And to be really, really honest about it,

Cal ser molt honest amb això,

not be in denial about any results that you see,

i no intentar negar els resultats,

because if you have something you love, you want to push it forward,

perquè si estimes el que crees, sempre vols continuar.

but you have to be very, very honest about that factor on timing.

Però s'ha de ser molt honest amb el timing.

As I said earlier,

Com ja he dit, les empreses emergents

I think startups can change the world and make the world a better place.

poden convertir el món en un lloc millor.

I hope some of these insights

Espero que alguns d'aquests

can maybe help you have a slightly higher success ratio,

descobriments puguin ajudar-vos a tenir èxit,

and thus make something great come to the world

i a crear coses genials que d'una altra manera

that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

potser no hauríeu creat.

Thank you very much, you've been a great audience.

Moltes gràcies, sou un gran públic.

(Applause)

(Aplaudiments)